Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 2.15 Clonmel
- 2.45 Newcastle
- 4.45 Sandown
- 6.00 Chelmsford
And of the three UK races, the last seems to have more for us in terms of Instant Expert, if not quality. It's the 6.00 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...
Old-timer Muscika was a winner last time out, as was Thismydream, whilst Magical Max, Bezzas Lad and Jupiter Express were all in the frame. El Hombre won three starts back, ad did Jupiter Express and Bezza's Lad is 212 in his last three, but half of the field (Magical Max, Bang On the Bell, Desert Boots, Mustaffiz and Autumn Flight) are winless on their visible form line.
Both Bang On The Bell and LTO winner Muscika drop in class today, but the bottom four on the card (Jupiter Express, Desert Boots, Mustaffiz and Autumn Flight) are up one grade. All bar Bang On The Bell (2 months off) have raced in the last six weeks with both Desert Boots and Autumn Flight turned back out fairly quickly after just six and three days rest respectively.
Both Muscika and El Hombre are former course and distance winners (the former is 2 from 3 over C&D), whilst Autumn Flight has won here over his preferred 5f, but did win over today's trip at Bath. Magical Max, Bang On The Bell, Bezza's Lad and Desert Boots have also scored elsewhere over today's trip.
So, we've three course winners (2 at C&D) and all bar three with a 6f win, but it's time to check in with feature of the day Instant Expert for the going/class/weight stats...
Autumn Flight is two from six at this track, but it's all over 5f and his going, class and distance stats are very poor. The top half of the field looks the stronger with Muscika probably standing out, but there's a lot of red going on in that graphic, so maybe the IE place stats will yield more for us...
Well, it doesn't really solve the "who to back?" conundrum, but it does highlight Mustaffiz's deficiencies and the depth of Muscika's experience and he has to be a contender dropping in class after an LTO win without a change in his "mark". He made virtually all to win as he does normally other than two starts ago when he was inexplicably tardy in getting going, resulting in his worst run for some time.
One suspects, however, based on the field's recent outings that he won't have it all his own way up front, if the following is anything to go by...
There may well be a battle for the lead early doors, but I'm fairly sure that Desert Boots will sit that out and I'm even more sure that that isn't generally a great tactic here at Chelmsford over 6f, but let's look at facts rather than opinions, courtesy of the Geegeez Pace Analyser...
And this shows that leaders win 1.41 times more often than prominent runners, who in turn win 1.51 times more often than in mid-division who win a staggering 2.56 times more often hold-up horses. Hold-ups are almost 5.5 times less likely to win than leaders and whilst that gap isn't as wide on the place results, leaders still make the frame more often than the others and this inferred pace bias is far more important than the draw here, as shown by the Draw Analyser...
...which is pretty inconclusive, but the pace/draw heat map is centred around leaders with any running style and high drawn prominence...
Summary
Working backwards from that pace/draw heat map and the pace stats, I want to be working with the four most likely to contest the lead ie Jupiter Express, Thismydream, Muscika and Bezza's Lad, but adding Magical Max to the mix. He's drawn high and likes to race prominently.
If I'm working with this half of the field, I think Magical Max and Thismydream would be the weaker picks, Thismydream did indeed win LTO, but it was a Novice event and his first ever win coming at the 23rd attempt and he's now 4lb higher than his last handicap run where he was only fourth of seven. Magical Max is on a 10-race losing run, since scoring on his First two career outings and although second on his A/W debut over this course and distance six weeks ago, he's inexperienced in this sphere and the loss of his claimer jockey effectively makes him 3lbs worse off than a defeat to El Hombre.
Which leaves us with the 3/1 fav Jupiter Express, 6/1 shot and Bezza's Lad and my preference the 4/1 Muscika. All have a great chance of winning this and all look suited by the pace profile required here, but Muscika caught the eye in Instant Expert, comes here in form and escapes a penalty for an LTO win, thus possibly offering the best value for money of the trio.
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- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
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- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
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