The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where the 2.45 Market Rasen contest is of obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover this trio from the Black Country...
- 6.00 Wolverhampton
- 7.00 Wolverhampton
- 8.30 Wolverhampton
And although the clash of two Shortlist runners at Market Rasen appeals to me, they're both likely to be fairly popular in the market and the middle of our three 'free' A/W races looks an interesting affair where I'd guess the top six or seven in the market will be covered by about 4 or 5 points. That race is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...
And as well as expecting a close market, the 2nd to 8th runners in the weights will only have a 3lb spread with two of them coming here off the back of a win last time out : Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper. Of the rest, only Amber Island, Larado, Master Zoffany and Revolutionise have a win in their visible form line, although Tylos has been a runner-up in each of his last two.
Tylos actually drops down from Class 2 to run here, as do top-weight Moai and Farhh To Shy with Larado dropping in from a Listed race last weekend. As with four class droppers, we also have four stepping up, all from Class 4 and they are LTO winners Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper along with Revolutionise and Counsel.
Moai runs in a handicap for just the second time (15 lengths, last of 10, a fortnight ago!), whilst Tylos now wears cheekpieces for the first time to hopefully get a bit more of him in a bid to land a second course and distance success. Amber Island, Master Zoffany, Jilly Cooper and Revolutionise have also all won over this 7f trip here in the past and all bar top-weight Moai and bottom weight Perseverants have scored over this distance somewhere, but the C&D winners are the only previous course winners.
Amber Island returns from the longest break, but shouldn't have got too rusty in a 6-week rest, whilst Larado is pitched back in three days after a Listed race and 8 of the 11 have raced in the last 20 days. We know that most of these have won at today's trip, but not many have scored at Class 3 on the A/W, according to Instant Expert...
...but a few of them have good place numbers at this level...
...somewhat (if not totally) allaying my fears about both Amber Island & Keyser Soze only having 1 from 7 records at Class 3. Elsewhere Amber Island was third over C&D LTO and remains 6lbs higher than her last win, four starts ago, whilst Revolutionise (who looks solidly if unspectacularly consistent on IE) is 5lbs higher than his last win. The ones obviously catching the eye from above are Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper, three of our course and distance winners.
If we look at past 11-runner contests over 7f here at Wolverhampton, our Draw Analyser says...
...stalls 1 to 7 are the best place to run from, whilst the Pace stats from those same races suggest...
...that leader/prominent runners are twice as likely to win those further back in the pack and this is further highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...
Although stalls 1 to 7 were favoured on the draw stats, the heat map above does tend to imply that pace is more important than draw, so let's now look at who might (based on recent evidence) be the ones racing in the upper half of the field...
And whilst not all runners run the same way every time they turn out, I'm fairly confident that Larado will be trying to blast out of stall 6 in a bid to make all, whilst Keyser Soze is generally a slow/poor starter. And for more recent runs, here's how the field's last two races have panned out...
...which does suggest that Jilly Cooper is the one most likely to chase Larado.
Summary
Three of the course and distance winners caught the eye on Instant Expert : Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper. Jilly Cooper comes here in the best form of any of this field, having finished 1252731 over the last four months. That run includes three course and distance efforts with results of 131 and she's just 3lbs higher than the last two of those. All of which makes Jilly Cooper very much the one to beat here for me.
Both Tylos and Master Zoffany hold good chances of making the frame, as indeed do Farhh To Shy and Amber Island, but it would be Jilly Cooper that interests me most here. Only hills are open for this race at the moment and they go 9/2 about the filly, which is actually a good point longer than I expected. E/W punters might want to wait until SkyBet, Paddy Power and/or Unibet open up, as they're all paying on the first four home.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
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