Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/06/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

Adrian Keatley's horses have had a good month winning 7 of 16 handicaps and he has two runners at Ripon, where he has had 5 winners and 4 furthers placers from 13 handicap runs in the last year. One of those two runners, Dungart Glory, runs in one of our daily 'free' races, so it makes sense (to me, at least!) to tie the daily free feature in with the free race list and take a look at the 6.35 Ripon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed it stays that way), Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a righthanded 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

There's not much recent winning form amongst this group with only Gareeb's win three starts ago and Emily's Eclipse's win four races ago the only successes in the field's last five outings. Anjo Bonita, however, might well be an 8-race maiden but she has made the first three home in each of her last seven outings. Khinjani has placed in her last three and Bloomwithgrace came within three quarters of a length of breaking her own duck last time out.

That narrow defeat for Bloomwithgrace was at the class above this race, so she could benefit from the drop, as might Anjo Bonita, whilst Gareeb was last seen at Class 3, although she was last home of eleven some 21 lengths adrift.

The three 'form' horses, Bloomwithgrace, Khinjani and Anjo Bonita are all unexposed in handicap company, as the latter makes a hcp debut here and it's just the second crack for the other pair. Elsewhere, Emily's Eclips wears first-time cheekpieces, whilst it's just the second run in a visor for Kittykarma.

Our featured horse, Dungar Glory, not only concedes weight all round, but has to contend with a layoff of over five months since she was last home of 8 at Wolverhampton in early January, whilst the vast majority of her rivals have all raced in the last month apart from Emily's Eclipse who might also need the run after an eleven week break.

Dungar Glory is, however, the only one of the eight to have previously won here at Ripon, having scored over a mile back in August 2022 and none of the field have won at today's trip. Mind you, the field only share four wins between them with Dungar Glory successful at 7f and a mile, Emily's Eclipse scored over 7½f and Gareeb's win three starts/two months ago was also over a mile, albeit on Southwell's tapeta.

The fact that the field are a combined 4 from 64 (6.25% SR), we're probably better switching straight to the place stats on Instant Expert, as they have at least made the frame in 29 (45.3%) of those 64 outings...

...where the ones catching the eye most are...

...with those drawn at either end (Emily's Eclipse & Dungar Glory) looking the weakest of that half dozen. I've only omitted crossed off the runners in stalls 1 and 5 so far, so the full draw stats for similar contests might help us narrow the field down further, as our Draw Analyser suggests those drawn more centrally have fared the best...

...but with the ground being quicker in places and the horses having 10 furlongs to undo the effect of the draw, it might well be running styles/tactics that decide this one and our Pace Analyser is pretty clear cut on this...

Those up with the pace win 2.25 times more often than those in mid-division or further back and leaders are easily best placed to make the frame. That's not to say you can't win/place from off the pace here, but based on the field's recent outings...

...you'd want to be more Anjo Bonita than Emily's Escape, I'd guess.

Summary

Anjo Bonita has been knocking on the door (3222322) for about eight months now and a drop in class will help her here. She's not badly treated at the weights for her handicap debut and she'd be the one I'd fancy from this group. She's the pace angle in the race and might well prove difficult to reel in. Bloomwithgrace is the one most likely to give chase and that should help her to make the frame, whilst the other form horse Khinjani has two prominent runs from her last three and could be the other placer here.

I had no prices to work with at 4.35pm on Tuesday, so any decision on bets would have to wait, but I'd be looking at Anjo Bonita to win here (5/1 or 11/2 would be nice, but I doubt I'll get it) ahead of Bloomwithgrace and/or Khinjani. I suspect that pair might even be shorter than Anjo, so I doubt there'll be an E/W play for me.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24