Racing Insights, Wednesday 31/01/24

January 30, 2024
Chris Worrall

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

2.10 Exeter
2.35 Dundalk
2.45 Exeter
4.45 Exeter

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and I think we'll see how in-form Tom Lacey might get on with Nocte Volatus in the 3.55 Leicester, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 2m4f on soft ground...

Only Sheldon managed to win last time out, but both Grandad's Cottage and Nocte Volatus made the frame, but the latter is the only runner in the race without a win in his last four starts, having been beaten in each of his last ten since winning at Huntingdon almost eleven months ago.

LTO winner Sheldon is our only class mover, stepping up a level from his Boxing Day Wincanton triumph, whilst top-weight Grandad's Cottage wears a tongue-tie for the first and it'll be bottom-weight Will Sting's first outing since recent wind surgery.

Jet Plane, Another Crick, Oxygen and Will Sting have all had one unsuccessful run at this track, but all of the field bar Jet Plane have won over today's trip, according to the racecard and this is confirmed by Instant Expert who highlights Grandad's Cottage as being the one best suited by conditions...

Oxygen is 2 from 2 on Good to Soft ground, which is good to know in case the track dries out any by race time. Jet Plane would like that to happen too and Nocte Volatus' record at class/trip is typical of his overall form, where he has won just 3 of 24 career starts, but has made the frame in 8 of 15 over fences...

...making him a regular E/W prospect under similar conditions, whilst Jet Plane, Will Sting and Sheldon look vulnerable on the above data. If recent performances are anything to go by, then Grandad's Cottage and Jet Plane might well take a back seat in the early stages whilst the others scrap it out up front...

...although Sheldon and Oxygen don't normally get involved very early despite doing so last time out and sitting back might well be the best option for those with hopes of winning...

...although leaders do often holds on for a place.

Summary

Short and sweet today, hopefully. Nocte Volatus doesn't win often enough and is on a long losing run. Jet Plane, Will Sting and Sheldon look vulnerable on Instant Expert, where Another crick looks more like a placer than a winner, which leaves me with top-weight Grandad's Cottage and Oxygen as the two I probably like best here.

Oxygen is 6lbs higher than his last win and was well beaten off this mark last time out, whilst Grandad's Cottage is effectively 5lbs lower than his last win, thanks to his jockey's claim and whilst only third of six last time around, that looks a better race than the Novice event Oxygen lost by 22 lengths, so I'll take the 7/2 (Bet365 & Hills at 4pm) Grandad's Cottage to beat the 3/1 (Hills) fav Oxygen here.