Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

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...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

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