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Stat of the Day, 11th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Ludlow : Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Led until 3rd, chased leader, jumped into lead 5th, went left 3 out 2 out and last, hung left and headed run-in, no extra in 3rd)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding brings the best recent form to the table of all 8 runners in this contest, having won 2 of his last 3 (121) outings with wins here at Bangor over 2m3.5f and at Uttoxeter last time out (18 days ago) over 3 miles sandwiching a defeat by just a neck over 3m2.5f at Sedgefield, so the trip shouldn't be a concern today.

All three of those races were on Good or Good to Soft ground and all were after 17 days rest from his previous run, so he's getting similar conditions here today. His yard is in good nick right now with 5 winners from 22 (22.7% SR) over the last fortnight generating 270.1pts profit at an ROI of 1227.7%, admittedly skewed by a 100/1 winner that paid 294/1 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't affect the strike rate!

In fact, his trainer Donald McCain is based just 12 miles away from Bangor over the border in Cheshire and has been a regualr and successful visitor to this track in recent years, clocking up 109 winners from 514 runners (21.2% SR) since the start of 2011. Had you been lucky enough to stick £20 on each of them , you'd now have a profit of £3916, equating to a 38.1% return on your investment!

Of these 514 runners, his hurdlers have won 78 of 327 (23.9% SR) for 237pts (+72.5% ROI), so it'd be wiser to focus on those and with that and today's race in mind, here's just a dozen ways that Donald has got his 78 hurdle wins here at Bangor...

  1. Males are 71/289 (24.6%) for 216.9pts (+75%)
  2. Class 4 runners are 54/213 (25.4%) for 115.7pts (+54.3%)
  3. 5/6 yr olds are 47/183 (25.7%) for 176.3pts (+96.3%)
  4. Novice hurdlers are 42/136 (30.9%) for 124pts (+91.2%)
  5. Those last seen 6-25 days earlier are 41/119 (34.5%) for 169.2pts (+142.2%)
  6. Good ground has yielded 36/152 (23.7%) for 78.9pts (+51.9%)
  7. Handicappers are 31/154 (20.1%) for 103.1pts (+67%)
  8. LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 21.1pts (+42.2%)
  9. Those stepping up a class are 13/69 (18.8%) for 80.5pts (+116.7%)
  10. Over this 2m7f course and distance : 9/26 (34.6%) for 30.1pts (+115.7%)
  11. Novice handicap hurdlers are 6/18 (33.3%) for 43.5pts (+241.5%)
  12. And those ridden by today's jockey, Lorcan Murtagh are 3 from 10 (30%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%)

You can, of course, mix and match the above logical angles to make your own micro-systems, but that does dilute the sample size the more angles you add. If you wanted a simple approach for just a small number of bets per year, then 5 yr old male Class 4 Novice Hurdlers are 16/44 (36.4% SR) for 89.7pts (+204% ROI) with those retuning from a short 6 to 25 day absence winning 8 of 23 (34.8%) for 62.1pts (+270.2%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG, a price available from Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook at 5.30pm on Wednesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 5th June

FONTWELL – JUNE 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £22.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 53.6% units went through – 7/2 & 11/4*

Race 2: 73.4% of the remaining units when through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 3: 94.5% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 15/8

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/1

Race 5: 27.2% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/2 (2/1)

Race 6: 62.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/7* (Win only)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Westerbee) & 2 (Carraigin Aonair)

Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Diakali) & 1 (Our Three Sons)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Peculiar Places), 1 (Double Treasure) & 3 (Pontresina)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Innocent Girl) & 7 (Brown Bear)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Bagging Turf), 9 (Roparta Avenue) & 1 (Mogestic)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Mason Dixon), 1 (Chantra Rose) & 7 (Findusatgorcombe)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: It is not usual to find (respectfully) the name of Seamus Mullins featured in the top ten NH trainers list in terms of the number of winners this season (eight in total), but that is a fact as we contemplate a disappointing day of sport this morning.  Only the race planners will know why we have three NH cards on offer today and none on the flat (turf racing).  Just two horses have been declared in the first race at Bangor and I wonder how many would be entered in a flat (turf) race at Sandown on semi frozen ground in January?  It beggars belief with the bowl out as they say oop north!  Back to Seamus at Fontwell by suggesting this his entry WESTERBEE can go close in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  The ‘dark horse’ in the race is CARRAIGIN AONAIR from the shrewd Olly Murphy yard which knows how to place its horses to winning effect – and then some!

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Favourite factor: The opening race is a new contest on the Fontwell card.

 

2.45: This is not a bad turnout at all, though whether a winner will emerge as Black Corton did last year before setting out a grand sequence of efforts we will have to wait and see.  If that scenario evolves, it would likely stem from a success for DIAKALI who represents ‘local’ trainer Gary Moore.  Richard Johnson takes the ride which is only the fifth time that the champion jockey has ridden for Gary (without a winner) during the last five years.  That said, the partnership has teamed up to winning effect nine times down the years and the booking takes the eye today.  OUR THREE SONS has less to prove and appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions having won their respective events.

 

3.15: Jamie Snowden saddles Our Three Sons in the previous race on the card and the trainer has definite claims here as well, having declared DOUBLE TREASURE to contest a race over timber for the first time in the thick end of two years.  Jamie’s seven-year-old inmate was running of an official mark of 108 in those days which gives him something to find here against the likes of PONTRESINA and (to a fashion) Present Destiny.  That said, Gavin Sheehan’s mount has subsequently improved a great deal though with PECULIAR PLACES having attracted overnight support, we can take nothing for granted in an interesting heat.

Favourite factor: All three (8/13, 4/6 & 15/8) favourites have prevailed thus far.

 

3.45: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and lone vintage representative BROWN BEAR brings plenty of fast ground form into the race, whereby Nick Gifford’s local raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts turning for home on the final circuit at this unique venue.  The figure of eight course (steeplechases) is the only track like it in the country, since Windsor ceased its interest in NH racing – wait for it – twenty years ago!  I have a wonderful ‘obituary’ article about the day that Windsor closed its doors on the jump racing scene if you would like to contact me via a direct message on my Twitter page – it is well worth a read. Back to this event by suggesting that INNOCENT GIRL is the threat to the seven-year-old record in the contest.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have obliged, though the other two (even money & 2/1) market leaders finished out of the frame during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Innocent Girl (good)

3/9—Brown Bear (2 x good & good to firm)

 

4.15: Seamus Mullins was mentioned positively in despatches earlier and the trainer has another chance on the card with MOGESTIC, though Gary Moore has a potential ‘springer’ in the contest having declared BAGGING TURF with claims on the best of his form from yesteryear.  ROPARTA AVENUE has his ground (his only two victories have been recorded on good going) and can rarely be left out of the equation in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured Placepot positions though that said, three of the four gold medallists were returned at odds of 20/1, 12/1 & 8/1 alongside a successful 5/2 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)

 

4.45: MASON DIXON looks a typical ‘rerouted’ Tim Vaughan raider ready to pounce to winning effect, especially with Richard Johnson having been booked to ride.  There are worse outsiders on the card than FINDUSATGORCOMBE on this ground, whilst CHANTARA ROSE is a definite player with Peter Bowen having saddled four of this last five runners to winning effect.  Peter’s nine-year-old-mate is his only runner until Friday (earliest) this week.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight winners have been sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Champagne George (good to soft & soft)

2/7—Lee Side Lady (soft & heavy)

1/1—Findusatgorcombe (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 19th May

NEWBURY – MAY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £131.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 46.4% units went through – 3/1* & 4/1

Race 2: 25.7% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 – 7/1 – 11/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 7/2* - 9/1

Race 4: 67.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/2 – 25/1

Race 5: 48.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* & 20/1

Race 6: 27.5% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 & 15/2 (2/1)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Shababby), 4 (Juliet Capulet) & 3 (Eqtidaar)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Crystal Ocean) & 2 (Raheen House)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Chief Ironside), 7 (He’s Amazing) & 3 (Dukhan)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Addeybb), 4 (Beat The Bank) & 12 (Suedois)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Itstheonlyway) & 6 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Stream Song), 4 (Crystal Hope) & 2 (Arcadian Cat)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50 (Carnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last eight contests, though it’s a big ask for 33/1 chance All Out to improve the ratio this time around in what I consider to be the best race on the card. That would not be difficult given the line up in the Lockinge this season which media commentators will no doubt describe as a wonderful renewal!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that SHABAABY, JULIET CAPULET and EQTIDAAR should all be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, the trio having been listed in order of preference.  Owen Burrows (Shabaaby) secured a 13/2 double on the Newmarket card yesterday, his recent ratio now standing at 4/9.  Accordingly, 8/1 looks a tad too big about Owen’s Kyllachy colt, albeit the ground remains an unknown factor given his two soft going successes to date.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last thirteen years during which time, ten gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

2.25 (Aston Park Stakes):  Four-year-olds have won 11 of the last 20 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives CRYSTAL OCEAN and RAHEEN HOUSE look sure to go close this time around.  The odds are extremely cramped about the first named Sir Michael Stoute raider, though the 11/2 quote (across the board early doors this morning) fopr RAHEEN HOUSE represents a potential each way play given the 11/8 place price in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have reached the frame (five winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before the 2016 gold medallist reared its ugly head at 14/1.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/4—Scarlet Dragon (Good to firm & good to soft)

 

3.00: The last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby CHIEF IRONSIDE (drawn 1/11), HE’S AMAZING (9) and DUKHAN (2) will represent yours truly in my Placepot permutation on Saturday.  Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced five of the last seven winners, gaining at Placepot position between them on all seven occasions.  Last year’s 8/1 winner was described by yours truly as “the clear pick on this occasion”.  Connect (the complete outsider in the field) would have been considered had there been moisture in the turf.

Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 16 of the last 26 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):

1-7-12 (13 ran-soft)

3-4-5 (15 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good)

7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)

14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

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1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)

5-9-12 (12 ran-good)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good)

5-9-13 (13 ran-good)

6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

3 (3 ran-soft)

8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.40 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last eight winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117-122 into the contest (average ratio of 125).  I suggested two years ago that the contest represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the ‘117 winner’ and with this year’s runners offering an average figure of 113, much can be said for this latest renewal.  This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 25/1 chance, namely SUEDOIS, albeit the lack of a recent run tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  As short as 14/1 in two places this morning, 25/1 is available with Betfair and Paddy Power at the time of writing.  Horses towards the top of the market that grab my attention include the improving four-year-old raiders ADDEYBB and BEAT THE BANK.  This is a Group 1 race in name only.  Only if Limato were to win well could we carried away with the performance of the winner, though investors in Henry Candy’s representative know that seeing out the mile trip is taken on trust.  That said, connections couldn’t have wished for an easier opportunity, especially on ground that will offer the Tagula gelding every chance of lasting home.  From a Placepot perspective however, Harry Bentley’s mount will not offer value for money, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: The last 20 winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (eleven winning favourites), whilst twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.  Seven of the last eleven market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded three years ago), as have ten favourites during the last fifteen years.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-4-9 (8 ran-soft)

6-7-2 (12 ran-good)

3-15-6 (16 ran-good)

3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)

5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (6 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)

5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)

3-8-14 (15 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good)

7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (6 ran-soft)

8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winner in the 'Lockinge':

1/2—Limato (good to firm)

 

4.15:  Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers.  When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed.  Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 400 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 25 relevant gold medallists.  Richard has won this event in each of the last two years and has offered the green light to his dual winner ITSTHEONLYWAY on this occasion.  Bookmakers are likely to take THE IRISH ROVER on I’ll wager, given that Aiden O’Brien’s January foal ‘slept in the stalls’ at Ascot recently before making up the ground when the race had already been as good as lost.  A break on even terms can surely result in a Placepot position today, at the very least.

Favourite factor:

Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (2/1) favourite from a win perspective.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-8 (6 ran-soft)

5-1-6 (8 ran-good)

3-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dave Dexter (good to soft)

 

4.50: John Gosden has claimed two of the last seven renewals of this fascinating Placepot finale and the popular trainer saddles STREAM SONG this time around.  It’s worth noting that John was responsible for the beaten (2/1) favourite in the race twelve months ago however, whereby I feel duty bound to include CRYSTAL HOPE and ARCADIAN CAT in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last thirteen years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st April

NEWBURY – APRIL 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £24.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 30.7% units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 – 12/1 (3/1)

Race 2: 58.8% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 69.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 9/4* - 8/1

Race 4: 29.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 16/1 – 10/1 – 10/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 87.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 5/2 – 4/1

Race 6: 92.8% of the units secured the dividend – 100/1 – 5/2 – 6/5*

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 10 (Humbolt Current) & 11 (Mapped)

Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Cool To Mind) & 4 (Defoe)

Leg 3 (2.35): 11 (Tajaanus), 9 (Natural) & 1 (All Out)

Leg 4 (3.10): 4 (Expert Eye) & 6 (Hey Gaman)

Leg 5 (3.45): 22 (Gilgamesh), 19 (Graphite Storm), 20 (Keyser Soze) & 21 (Mazyoun)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (He’s Amazing), 11 (Jack Crow) & 15 (Ta Allak)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford two years ago with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results.  The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’.  I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!

 

**Further notice relates to the weather in this part of the world (Bristol), especially given the overnight “good to soft” quote for Newbury.  Thunderstorms have been forecast to break out in certain areas at any time of the day, whereby you should keep an eye out on the weather front to see how much (if any) rain has fallen at Newbury.  This is especially of interest, given that nearly all the course winners (listed after each race) require some cut in the ground.  If the ground dries up as much as it has done these last few days, connections might withdraw their runners and we know what an effect on the Placepot that scenario can have!  I will update weather in Bristol on my Twitter page leading up to flag fall in the opening event at 1.25.

 

1.25: Only MAPPED is standing up in any shape or form against the favourite HUMBOLT CURRENT with this pair fully expected to pull clear of the remainder with half a furlong or more to run, the pick of which (at a distance) might prove to be Coolongolook.

Favourite factor: Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last ten years (first and third five years ago).  COOL TO MIND was a winner on this corresponding card twelve months ago and the William Haggas raider might not be quite as ‘ground dependent’ as DEFOE who would appreciate showers in the lead up to the contest.  If the four-year-old trend is to be stopped in its tracks, DANEHILL KODIAC could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially following overnight support.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':

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1/1—Call To Mind (good to firm)

2/2—Defoe (2 x soft)

3/10—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

2.35: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ five years ago in a career which spanned over forty years.  Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998.  Richard 'junior’ saddled the ‘Chelmsford winner’ recently and his three runners offer the chance of the Hannon tradition gaining momentum.  NATURAL would not appreciate more cut (connections hoping that any rain in the area fails to materialise), though stable companion ALL OUT would probably benefit for a shower or two.  Richard’s short priced raider TAJAANUS would probably like the ground just as it is at the time of writing given his 3/5 ratio under such conditions.  Whatever the weather then, Richard should secure Placepot positions, with at least one of his representatives reaching the frame.  Givota and course winner Hikmaa are others to consider.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':

1/1—Hikmaa (soft)

 

3.05: Having won five of the last nine and six of the last 15 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card, though a Hannon representative is only visible by its absence on this occasion unfortunately.  Whether the team spied the likes of EXPERT EYE and HEY GAMAN waiting in the wings is an unknown factor of course though either way, there is no disputing the fact that this pair possess leading claims this time around. Connect and Raid offer speculative investors a chance of going close at inflated odds from my viewpoint, though this original ‘dead eight’ event has been thwarted by an early withdrawal.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 19 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'Greenham':

1/1—Expert Eye (good)

1/1—Hey Gaman (soft)

1/1—James Garfield (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 18 of the last 19 renewals on turf between them, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 59 of the last 71 available Placepot positions in the process.  Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 13 contests during the last 19 years whilst claiming 40 Placepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GILGAMESH (Drawn 17/24), GRAPHITE STORM (9), KEYSER SOZE (1) and MAZYOUN (7) according to my slide rule, given that six of the eight four-year-old winners during the last thirteen years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12.  Favourite backers are still enduring nightmares about the well backed 7/2 market leader (Chelsea Lad) which was pulled up before the race had barely begun twelve months ago.  The favourite carried 28.4% of the live Placepot units into the contest adding salt into a very deep wound.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via 18 renewals during the last 19 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 14 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.

Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:

12-8-4-7 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)

21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)

7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)

11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)

11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)

22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)

26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)

14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)

20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)

6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)

14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:

1/3—Graphite Storm (good to soft)

 

4.20: This looks to be a far more open event that was the case in the first heat which opened the Newbury programme.  So much so in fact that three runners are required to try and ensure that we secure the dividend if we were live going into the Placepot finale.  My trio against the remaining twelve contenders consists of HE’S AMAZING, JACK CROW and Roger Varian’s newcomer TA ALLAK.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, whereby the same stat apply. Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.30:

1/1—Rake’s Progress (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Stat of the Day, 21st April 2018

Friday's Runner was...

3.15 Ayr : Darius des Bois @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 4 out, led narrowly next, mistake last, ridden and headed flat, kept on same pace)

We now continue with Saturday's...

2.45 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Red Devil Star @ 11/4 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 4,  2m1.5f Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5133 to the winner...

Why?

A winner 10 days ago on heavy ground over 2m2f at Market Rasen romping home by some 16 lengths and is of immediate interest, because...

...2013-18 / UK Class 3&4 handicap chases / 1m7f to 3m3.5f / ground has the word "good" in the title / males / odds of 10-1 and shorter / same class or up by 1 or grades from LTO / won hcp chase LTO 4-20 days ago = 199/721 (27.6% SR) for 146.4pts (+20.3% ROI), including...

  •  Class 4 : 128/432 (29.6%) for 71.9pts (+16.6%)
  • 6-15 days since last run : 132/429 (30.8%) for 123pts (+28.7%)
  • good to soft : 68/245 (27.8%) for 58.2pts (+23.8%)
  • April : 45/105 (42.9%) for 71.6pts (+68.2%)
  • won by 15-30 lengths LTO : 22/61 (36.1%) for 26.7pts (+43.7%)
  • at Bangor : 7/20 (35%) for 6.7pts (+33.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Red Devil Star @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 24th March

DONCASTER – MARCH 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,231.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 16.6% units went through – 7/1, 11/1 & 33/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 19.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 20/1 (9/2)

Race 3: 41.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1, 10/3 & 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 20/1, 7/2*, 7/1 & 16/1

Race 5: 26.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 13/2 & 50/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1, 9/2 & 14/1 (11/4)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Mjjack), 6 (Mr Lupton) & 4 (Lancelot Du Lac)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Kynren), 8 (What’s The Story) & 14 (Titus)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Another Touch) & 6 (Zabeel Prince)

Leg 4 (3.35): 17 (Fire Brigade), 14 (Addeybb), 13 (Grey Britain) & 10 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Langholm), 10 (Lihou) & 4 (Carey Street)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Proschema) & 2 (Argentello)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Scroll down for Doncaster stats and Newbury Placepot information

 

1.50: The last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst only two favourites have prevailed via the last 14 contests.  Unfortunately, only the bottom weight is eliminated from my enquiries via the relevant weight stats this time around though in MJJACK, we have a half decent chance of securing a Placepot position at the very least in the opening race of the season.  There is money this morning for Karl Burke’s raider who looks an interesting each way bet for starters on a busy day.  Others of interest include course winner MR LUPTON and LANCELOT DU LAC who doesn’t mind some juice in the ground, though the general 3/1 quote would frighten yours truly away from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

4-12-1 (13 ran-good to soft)

14-12-2 (13 ran-soft)

10-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-soft)

9-1-4 (8 ran-soft)

11-10-12 (14 ran-good)

5-7-14 (14 ran-good)

14-10-13 (13 ran-soft)

6-2-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

16-9-17 (15 ran-good to soft)

2-7-10 (11 ran-good)

16-17-12 (17 ran--good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Mjjack (heavy)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good)

1/4—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won 16 renewals during the last 20 years (including 13 of the last 16), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Eleven vintage representatives have been declared compared to just six twelve months ago which makes this renewal a little tougher to assess.  I have opted for KYNREN, WHAT’S THE STORY and TITUS.  The reserve nomination is awarded to ORIGINAL CHOICE.

Favourite factor: The last 16 favourites that failed to win their respective events also missed out on Placepot positions.  Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last 14 years.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

6-3-1-9 (21 ran-good to soft)

4-19-20-18 (21 ran-soft)

8-1-18-21 (21 ran-good)

15-16-14-18 (22 ran-soft)

16-8-20-13 (18 ran-soft)

2-7-8-12 (22 ran-good)

16-19-22-10 (22-good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

19-10-12-18 (19 ran-soft)

9-11-2-20 (21 ran-good to soft)

17-1-2-21 (21 ran-good to soft)

12-8-7-20 (22 ran-good)

19-20-21-15 (24-good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the second race:

1/4—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/1—What’s The Stoory (soft)

 

3.00: ANOTHER TOUCH is the each way call in the contest, albeit ZABEEL PRINCE should take the beating on this ground which has produced some of his best form.  Richard Hannon secured a treble on the corresponding card last year and TABARRAK appears to be his best chance of a winner today.  That said, ground conditions are a worry and in ANOTHER TOUCH, we have a young horse which offers decent value for money at 11/1 (in places) this morning.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this Doncaster Mile event have changed around in recent years whereby the official stance now is that there are just five renewals to take into consideration with three of the six market leaders having secured Placepot positions (two winners).

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have claimed 23 of the last 60 available Placepot positions, statistics which include eight of the last fifteen winners, whilst the last 13 winners have carried 9-4 or less.  Putting all those stats and facts in the deep fat fryer produces a short list of FIERE BRIGADE, ADDEYBB, GREY BRITAIN and NOT SO SLEEPY.  I had to include the latter named raider who is a 66/1 chance in some books this morning which appears to be a more than generous quote given his 2/4 record on the prevailing ground. That said as a winner (similarly) of two of his four races on soft going, FIRE BRIGADE is a worthy favourite from my viewpoint, though value for money is only conspicuous by its absence.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 19 years which is a thoroughly decent return in such a competitive event, though just three of the other 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

Effect of the draw during the last fourteen years:

20-2-21-4 (22 ran-good to soft)

22-2-18-21 (22 ran-soft)

15-6-19-12 (22 ran-good)

3-22-20-18 (17 ran-soft)

3-1-19-10 (22 ran-soft)

12-21-9-2 (22 ran-good)

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

Doncaster record of course winners in the Lincoln Handicap:

2/3—Gabrial (2 x good)

1/1—Stamp Hill (good to soft)

2/6—Withernsea (soft & heavy)

1/2—Bravery (good to soft)

 

4.10: LIHOU and CAREY STREET are alternative each way types to consider though at the time of writing, LANGHOLM is a warm favourite to put in mildly given that this is the infamous ‘Brocklesby’ contest which has sent many an investor to an early grave!  Wasntexpectingthat is the other juvenile to consider according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Just nine of the 27 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years (three winners).

Draw details for the last fourteen renewals:

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

3-8-4 (10 ran-soft)

2-6-4 (9 ran-good)

2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)

13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)

10-1-9 (12 ran-good)

5-2-9 (12 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)

14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-18 (18 ran-good)

5-12-4 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12 (18 ran-good)

15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

 

4.40: Tom Dacombe’s Declaration Of War colt PROSCHEMA ran well under these conditions on his second start as a juvenile and in terms of ‘laying off’ from a Placepot perspective, Richard Kingscote’s mount is the horse to play in the finale of our favourite wager.  That said, ARGENTELLO could be anything out of the Gosden yard if you are ‘chasing money’ (never recommended) towards the end of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Horses returned between 2/1* and 5/1 have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst runners sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed the other four contests.  It seems that each way bets between 11/2 and 12/1 in recent years have gone up in any amount of smoke, certainly from a win perspective at least.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stat for Doncaster on Saturday:

Richard Hannon secured a 703/1 treble at the corresponding (Lincoln Handicap) meeting last year – 3 runners today: Tabarrak (3.00), Moneyoryourlife (5.20) & Boycie (5.50)

 

NEWBURY ON SATURDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend £200.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.9% units went through – 7/1, 9/1 & 10/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 40.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2*, 7/1 & 8/1

Race 3: 43.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1**, 7/1**, 25/1 & 9/1

Race 4: 50.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 14/1 & 2/1*

Race 5: 93.3% of the remaining units went through – 8/11* & 9/4

Race 6: 22.2% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2, 12/1 & 8/1 (9/2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 24th March 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.30 Newbury : Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, ridden and no impression between last 2, weakened and well beaten into 5th on run-in)

Our last pick of another successful week runs in Saturday's...

2.50 Bangor:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m0.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on good to soft ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?

This in form 6 yr old gelding comes here off the back off three successive wins and based upon those runs, today's conditions seem to be perfect for him.

He likes some cut in the ground, today's jockey Andrew Tinkler rode in all three wins, the hood and tongue tie are reapplied today, he runs 32 days after his latest win, as the last three were after breaks of 32, 27 and 25 days respectively.

So, he seems well suited here, as he bids for another winner for local(-ish) trainer Alastair Ralph. Now Alastair isn't the most famous/well known of trainers, nor does he have the biggest string of runners at his disposal (just 62 runners in the last 15 months), but like anybody good at their profession/trade, he has found niches/areas that he appears to focus on and excel at.

Let me explain a more, you see from the 62 runners since the start of 2017, he has had no less than 15 winners (24.2% SR) returning level stakes profits of 51.96pts at a very healthy/attractive ROI of 83.8%. And whilst 62 runners isn't the biggest sample size I've ever used for SotD, the number stack up really well, especially in the following areas (all of which apply today)...

  • males are 15/57 (26.3%) for 56.96pts (+99.9%)
  • less than 80 miles from home (Ludlow) : 13/50 926%) for 59.71pts (+119.4%)
  • in fields of 5 to 12 runners : 13/43 (30.2%) for 63.02pts (+146.6%)
  • hurdlers are 12/43 (27.9%) for 55.79pts (+129.8%)
  • handicappers are 9/34 (26.5%) for 26.93pts (+79.2%)
  • 16-45 days since their last run : 9/32 (28.1%) for 56.54pts (+176.7%)
  • at evens to 8/1 : 12/30 (40%) for 41.74pts (+139.1%)
  • at Class 4 : 10/30 (33.3%) for 39.76pts (+132.5%)
  • December to March : 7/22 (31.8%) for 50.02pts (+227.4%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f : 7/21 (33.3%) for 18.51pts (+88.1%)
  • with a tongue tie fitted : 4/6 (25%) for 14.81pts (+92.6%)
  • ridden by Andrew Tinkler : 6/12 (50%) for 43.29pts (+360.7%)
  • LTO winners are 6/12 (50%) for 13.45pts (+112.1%)
  • wearing a hood : 4/11 (36.4%) for 11.22pts (+102%)
  • on Good to Soft : 3/8 (37.5%) for 0.86pts (+10.8%)
  • 6 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 18.4pts (+306.7%)
  • and in Wales : 2/4 (50%) for 18.86pts (+471.6%)

So, as you can see, that despite only working from a small number of runners, Alastair is very good at specialising in certain areas...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.55pm on Friday, whilst those with an unrestricted Betfair Sportsbook account can get 5/1 BOG if they're quick!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th February

FEBRUARY – FEBRUARY 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £73.70 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 11 (Church Leap), 2 (The Brothers) & 1 (Sir Egbert)

Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Run To Milan), 3 (Marten) & 2 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Max Ward), 4 (Modus), 1 (King’s Socks) & 3 (Overtown Express)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Broken Quest), 3 (Smart Boy) & 11 (Fly Du Charmil)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Big Bad John) & 3 (Brandon Hill)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Beakstown) & 4 (Gold Blade)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.20: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 whereby CHURCH LEAP, THE BROTHERS and SIR EGBERT are offered chances in a weak opening contest, especially by Kempton standards. The trio is listed in order of preference, especially as positive exchange money is ready to pour on the first named seven-year-old at realistic requests at the time of writing.
Favourite factor:  All five favourites had finished out of the frame since the inaugural (15/8) market leader obliged in 2008, before the 7/2 jolly scraped home by the minimum margin in 2013.  Three of the last five favourites have subsequently secured Placepot places.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Bolving (good to soft)

1.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the ten renewals and this year’s five representatives should best be represented by RUN TO MILAN and MARTEN.  That said, CHOSEN PATH is taken to get the better of both of the six-year-olds, with Alan King having scored with three of his six runners yesterday which resulted in a 24/1 treble for the popular trainer.  Although OK Corral is as short as 4/6 in a place in the dead of night, even money is becoming available about Nicky Henderson’s favourite which is a more realistic price from my viewpoint which still requires ‘taking on’ from a value for money Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4-5/4-10/11) winners.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/2—Ok Corral (good & soft)

 

2.25: The trade press quote of 10/1 about MAX WARD always looked fanciful from my viewpoint and I was pleased enough to take 9/1 ‘early doors’ this morning about the Tom George raider, mainly because of a little value for money in a race where question marks are in evidence relating to all four declarations.  I will be offering the quartet for my Placepot permutation in the hope that the horse with the fewest units wins the day, which could well be another bonus point if ‘Max’ obliges.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won, though the other four market leaders to date all missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Max Ward (good)

1/1—Moduis (good to soft)

 

3.00: Quantity rather than quality is in evidence here, with three selections needed to get us through to the last two legs of our favourite wager.  Listed in order of preference, I will settle for BROKEN QUEST, SMART BOY and FLY DU CHARMIL, all three horses having attract exchange money to a fashion.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/2 favourite frustratingly finished just outside the money for relevant supports of the market leader.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.30: Eight and nine-year-olds have shared eight of the last nine renewals, with nine-year-old BIG BAD JOHN making most appeal this time around. ASK THE WEATHERMAN is another vintage representative with a Placepot chance, though BRANDON HILL deserves his place at the top of the market from what we have witnessed to date.
Favourite factor: We were awaiting the first successful favourite following seven renewals before the 3/1 market leader duly obliged two years ago.  The race reverted to type last year when the 15/8 favourite finished nearer last than first.

Record of the course winner in the penultimate Placepot leg:

1/2—Bugsy Malone (good)

 

4.05: Layers are split regarding the chance of the Nicky Henderson newcomer GOLD BLADE though either way, Dan Skelton’s Irish import BEAKSTOWN is expected to land the dividend for us if we are live going into the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Although four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, four of the previous five market leaders prevailed.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season – followed by five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (11/32 +3) – 61/216 – loss of 2 points

5—Alan King (3/22 – loss of 15) – 25/161 – loss of 60

4—Chris Gordon (0/11) – 8/54 +57

4—Paul Nicholls (9/22 – loss of 1) – 36/161 – loss of 13

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 +2) – 11/68 +16)

3—Jack R Barber (0/1) – 0/2

3—Harry Fry (4/11 +3) – 13/60 – loss of 16

3—Tom George (1/7 – loss of 2) – 10/60 – loss of 1

3—Neil King (First runners at Kempton this season) – 2/16 +8)

3—Gary Moore (0/22) – 5/99 – loss of 63

3—Oliver Sherwood (1/7 – loss of 3) – 6/41 – loss of 3

2—Vic Dartnall (0/2) – 2/23 +7

2—David Dennis (0/3) – 2/19 – loss of 13

2—Warren Greatrex (1/3 – slight profit) – 3/25 – loss of 11

2—Laura Mongan (0/2) – 0/4

2—Ben Pauling (1/7 – loss of 1) – 5/35 – loss of 16

2—Richard Phillips (1/2 +4) – 1/10 – loss of 10

2—David Pipe (0/2) – 5/52 – loss of 25

2—Denis Quinn (0/2) – 0/3

2—Fiona Shaw (0/2) – 0/4

2—Dan Skelton (0/20) – 8/104 – loss of 77

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/9 – slight loss) – 11/63 – loss of 20

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £127.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £110.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 4th January

CHELMSFORD – JANUARY 4

Corresponding Placepot dividend in 2017:

£58.30 (8 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Native Arrow) & 3 (Shakour)

Leg 2 (6.45): 8 (Wicker), 2 (Bold Prediction) & 3 (Gentlemen)

Leg 3 (7.15): 6 (Noble Behest) & 2 (Vettori Rules)

Leg 4 (7.45): 5 (Campas Scoobie), 3 (Udontdodou) & 2 (Robot Boy)

Leg 5 (8.15): 5 (Firmdecisions), 4 (Lucymai) & 8 (The Eagle’s Nest)

Leg 6 (8.45): 1 (Jorvik Prince) & 2 (Red Invader)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: NATIVE ARROW is the latest newcomer off the Charlie Appleby production Line and it’s worth noting that the trainer has secured a 31% strike rate since the end of June via 70 winners.  His worst month during the period ‘boasted’ a 23% ratio, stats which most trainers would die for at any stage during their relevant careers, let alone month on month!  The top yard declarations DANZAY (Mark Johnston) and SHAKOUR (John Gosden) make this a race to record with an eye to the future.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chelmsford, hoping that races earlier in the day have gone your way!

 

6.45: It is hardly surprising that some support has arrived for GENTLEMAN overnight given his record at the course though more solid money from an each way perspective is in place for WICKER and BOLD PREDICITION just the right side of the each way quotes. GENTLEMEN has been called various names in the past (and present) but not too many owners that I know would turn their back on a four time winner, especially when writing out their cheques to pay for training fees at this time of the year.  Phil McEntee’s seven-year-old gelding races off an official mark in the ‘seventies’ for the first time in two years, a drop which gives him a Placepot opportunity for starters.

Favourite factor: One of the 7/2 joint favourites scraped into a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/7—Bold Prediction

4/13—Gentlemen

1/8—Lunar Deity

1/2—Wicker

2/7—Samphire Court

 

7.15: A change of stable (Marcus Tregoning to Robert Stephens) failed to stop NOBLE BEHEST in notching his four timer recently and there is no real knowing just how much more improvement lurks under the saddle.  Ladbrokes are out on a limb at the time of writing by offering 5/1 about VETTORI RULES and Gay Kelleway’s raider is offered the alternative call over Lost The Moon from a value for money perspective.  Start Seven represents Jamie Osborne who enjoyed a resurgence of winning form in December.  Two of Jamie’s last five runners have finished second to suggest that the winter will produce more winners for the popular trainer.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (via two renewals) have finished in the frame (exact science) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

2/7—Lost The Moon

1/1—Noble Behest

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7.45: The course record of UDONTDODOU stands up to close inspection obviously and the only surprise overnight is that there has not been any real support for Richard Guest’s raider, especially with the trainer boasting positive level stake profits via his visits to this part of the country.  There has been plenty of interest in CAPTAIN SCOOBY however and the five-year-old could emerge into something of a ‘plunge horse’ by the time that dawn breaks this morning.  15/2 was still available at the time of writing but I do not expect that quote to last too long when the offices opening for business.  ROBOT BOY is difficult to catch right, though it’s hardly surprising that David Barron has decided to go to war with his eight-year-old Shamardal gelding given the form of his team with trainer having saddled four of his last seventeen runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—Royal Birth

3/4—Udontdodou

5/26—Dynamo Walt

 

8.15: Dean Ivory saddled a winner on th corresponding card last year and I cannot help but note that there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue at double figures for his raider FIRMDECISIONS who has been backed almost right across the boards with conventional layers overnight.  It’s worth noting that Robert Winston takes the ride for the first time in ten starts, Dean’s eight-year-old having been dropped ten pounds since that last association.  Those of you who are taking the New Year by storm will have already noticed than on current form, stable companion LUCYMAI is the more obvious horse to back though either way, I’m quite content to let this pair represent yours truly as far as the Placepot is concerned this evening.  THE EAGLE’S NEST is feared most.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 market leaders finished nearer last than first in attempting to follow up the previous winning favourite who has been sent off at the same price.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

4/20—Loyalty

2/6—Lucymai

2/13—Upavon

1/6—Toy Theatre

1/1—The Eagle’s Nest

 

8.45: RED INVADER is the alternative each way option to JORVIK PRINCE for those of you wanting to take on the favourite in the final leg of our favourite wager.  Their course stats below offer confidence in just going to war with the two ‘selections’ in the lucky last.  Lisa Williamson has failed to saddle a winner via 33 runners since September which puts me off Mighty Zip who might otherwise have caught my attention via his 28% strike rate at the track.  Captain Scoobie (mind your ‘Scoobies’ on the card) is nominated as the reserve nomination accordingly.

Favourite factor:

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Jorvik Prince

2/5—Red Invader

4/14—Mighty Zip

1/3—Beau Mistral

1/3—Captain Scooby

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chelmsford card on Thursday – followed by their career stats at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Stuart Williams (35/223 +8 points)

3—Marco Botti (35/253 – loss of 36)

3—Dean Ivory (19/154 – loss of 29)

3—Derek Shaw (31/256 – loss of 22)

2—Michael Appleby (28/282 – loss of 112)

2—Brian Barr (1/21 – loss of 6)

2—David Barron (3/23 – loss of 11)

2—Tony Carroll (14/113 – loss of 23)

2—Rae Guest (6/55 – loss of 29)

2—Richard Guest (9/59 +28)

2—Gay Kelleway (6/91 – loss of 63)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

48 declared runners

 

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

3.00 Musselburgh : Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG (2.7/1 after R4) WON at EVENS Led, mistake 3rd, not fluent 4 out, ridden after next, hard pressed 2 out, rallied when narrowly headed flat, regained lead post to win by a nose.

Next up is Thursday's...

3.20 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

American Life @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f on Heavy ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?

Well, you've probably already looked at the race card before I got round to typing my notes up and you're possibly wondering why I've suggested an 11 yr old that hasn't won since mid-April 2016, but I haven't taken leave of my senses entirely.

Despite not winning for quite a long time, he has finished as a runner-up in each of his last three starts. He was beaten by a length at Perth back in April on his last run for Sophie Leech and then was off track for 225 days before a yard debut for Oliver Greenall at Market Rasen, where he went down by 3 lengths four weeks ago.

He then suffered the same fate at Catterick a week ago, but can consider himself unlucky to have bumped into Tom Lacey's in-form Triopas on those last two outings. There's nothing here of that calibre and the fact that the third placed horses in those two races were 53 lengths and 9 lengths behind American Life suggests it could well be his turn today.

He has won 5 times over hurdles to date, which admittedly isn't the best return from 59 efforts, but based on today's race conditions, his wins have come as follows...

  • All 5 on soft/heavy ground, 5-25 days since his last run, in fields of 6-11 runners and wearing a tongue tie
  • 3 on heavy, 3 at 2m7f-3m, 3 at Class 4and 3 at odds of 7/4 to 4/1

AND...over hurdles on soft/heavy ground in fields of 6-11 runners wearing a tongue tie 5-25 days after his last run, American Life is 5 from 28 (17.9% SR) for 10pts (+35.8% ROI) profit, including...

  • at Class 4 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 11.7pts (+73%)
  • on heavy : 3/15 (20%) for 12.67pts (+84.5%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 4/1 @ 3/4 (75%) for 9.17pts (+229.25%)
  • and at trips of 2m7f/2m7.5f : 2/4 (50%) for 7.22pts (+180.6%)

...suggesting that these conditions are the likeliest to provide him with at least one last hurrah!

PLUS...Since the start of 2014 in UK handicap hurdle contests on heavy ground, runners with 2 or more previous heavy ground victories are 65/409 (15.9% SR) for 209pts (+51.1% ROI). Matt calls this the rule of two and those 409 runners include...

  • in January/February : 38/214 (17.8%) for 235.8pts (+110.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 28/170 (16.5%) for 42.8pts (+25.2%)
  • in January : 19/111 (17.1%) for 47.9pts (+43.2%)
  • over 2m7f to 3m : 13/87 (14.9%) for 43.5pts (+50%)
  • 11 yr olds are 7/28 (25%) for 30.4pts (+108.6%) and the most successful age!
  • and here at Bangor : 2/7 (28.6%) for 26.8pts (+383.2%)

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on American Life @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th December

CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,708.10 (7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Western Ryder) & 7 (Summerville Boy)

Leg 2 (12.45): 4 (Tintern Theatre), 3 (Sizing Tennessee) & 2 (Dual At Dawn)

Leg 3 (1.20): 5 (Smaoineamh Alainn), 4 (Okotoks) & 2 (Remiluc)

Leg 4 (1.55): 1 (Song Saa), 6 (Twenty Eight Guns) & 8 (Viking Mistress)

Leg 5 (2.30): 3 (Waytzizname) & 6 (Shanroe Sands)

Leg 6 (3.05): 3 (Josies Orders), 1 (More Than That) & 2 (Tiger Roll)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Breakdown of the 2015 record Placepot dividend of £91,774.50 to a one pound stake at this corresponding meeting:

First leg: One of the two 3/1 second favourites claimed a Placepot position alongside an 11/2 chance in a six runner contest

Second leg: Although two outsiders filled the forecast positions at 16/1 & 25/1, the sixth horse in the market at 9/1 reached the frame.  All four 6/1 co-favourites finished out with the washing

Third leg: The 11/8 market leader finished out of the money behind horses which secured Placepot positions at 8/1, 14/1 & 9/1

Fourth leg: The first three favourites at 10/3, 4/1 & 4/1 all finished out of the ‘dead eight frame’

Fifth leg: The 11/4 second favourite led home horses at 7/1 & 28/1 with the 5/2 favourite finishing nearer last than first

Sixth leg: Regular readers will know that I have waxed lyrical about the poor performances of favourites in handicap hurdle races over a distance beyond the minimum trip.  Last year’s result (33/1-66/1-16/1) guaranteed that a huge dividend was just waiting to be announced.  The first six horses in the market all finished out with the washing.

Afterthought: Eight of the seventeen win and placed horses were sent off in single figures, proving that you don’t have to ‘go for broke’ to win a great dividend.  Indeed - 13/17 were placed at 16/1 or less – with 16/20 horses starting at 20/1 or more finishing out of the frame

 

Today’s race by race analysis: 

 

12.10:  By Cheltenham standards, this is an extremely ordinary card though it is still better sport than we have to witness on most days.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals though trainers have not been wise to the ‘edge’ this time around unfortunately, whereby I’m relying on WESTERN RYDE and SUMMERVILLE BOY to carry my Placepot cash in the opening event, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  SHOAL BAY would be the call if you are looking for a big priced winner in the first heat and/or if you want to take on the fancied horses from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor:  Just one (4/6) favourite has obliged during the last decade, though eight of the relevant gold medallists scored at a top price of 5/1.  Six of the ten market leaders claimed Placepot position though from a win perspective, favourites have been turned over at 4/7 and 8/11 in recent years.

 

12.45: Six-year-olds have won 11 of the last 15 renewals and the trend could well be extended, with TINTERN THEATRE having been given the green light by Nigel Twiston-Davies.  Out of interest, the lone vintage raider is attempting to become the eighth consecutive six-year-old winner of the contest! Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals, though the weather this week has seemingly gone against his representative Coastal Dip.  SIZING TENNESSEE and DUAL AT DAWN are preferred accordingly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.  Just two of the seven odds on favourites have won during the last 17 years.  A total of 39 horses starting at 6/1 or more failed to win during the study period.

 

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1.20: 14 of the last 20 winners carried weights of 11-8 or less, whilst seven scorers were burdened with a maximum of 10-12.  Five-year-olds have won seven of the last 15 renewals.  Putting the stats and facts together, an overnight short list emerges containing the names of SMAOINEAMH ALAINN, OKOTOKS and REMILUC.  The first named runner (don’t ask me to type the name again) is the lone five-year-old in the contest, whilst OKOTOKS represents the underrated yard of Fergal O’Birebn who I have been telling you for some time in the unsung Cheltenham trainer to call on if you don’t know what to back.  Ian Williams saddled last year’s winner and it’s worth noting that the trainer had booked a five pound claimer aboard REMILUC who creeps into the ‘superior’ weight sector accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won in recent years, accompanied by two joint favourites.  14 of the last 24 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.  A word of warning for favourite punters however, as the only odds on favourite was beaten ten years ago at 4/5.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/5—Qualando (good)

 

1.55: SONG SAA was well beaten in this event last year but has subsequently won two of her eight assignments (one under heavy conditions), notwithstanding the fact that the Midnight Legend mare has finished ‘in the three’ in her last six races.  The seven pound claimer represents the same poundage in terms of her advantage compared to the effort twelve months ago which should enable the six-year-old to become competitive at the business end of the contest, arguably alongside the likes of TWENTY EIGHT GUNS and VIKING MISTRESS who both offer value for money from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Horses filled the frame at 16/1, 7/1 & 13/23 in last year’s inaugural contest, with the 10/3 market leader missing out on a Placepot position.

 

2.30: The last 11 winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whilst eight-year-olds have secured five of the last 12 renewals. WATZIZNAME and SHANROE SANTOS are the two horses I like in the line up which qualify via the trends.
Favourite factor: Favourites have an excellent record in this event, obliging on 23 occasions since the inaugural contest.  However, the most recent successful leader was Midnight Chase at 11/4 back in 2010.  It’s also worth noting that only two of last seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/5—Southfield Theatre (good to soft)

 

2.05: 11 of the last 12 winners have been nine years of age or more, with nine of those gold medallists recorded in double figures.   Enda Bolger has saddled four of the last ten winners and putting the stats and facts together, JOSIES ORDERS, MORE OF THAT and TIGER ROLL are nominated against the remaining six contenders.  The latter named raider fails the vintage trend requirement but like MORE THAN THAT, this new discipline might transform ordinary recent efforts into additional Cheltenham success given their great records at the venue.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine market leaders have claimed four gold and four silver medals between them alongside toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

4/7—More Than That (3 x good to soft & soft)

3/5—Tiger Roll (2 x good to soft & good)

3/4—Josies Orders (2 x good & good to soft)

1/11—Bless The Wings (good to soft)

1/10—Cantlow (good to firm)

1/3—Kingswell Theatre (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday – followed by this season’s stats + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Warren Greatrex (0/4)

4—Colin Tizzard (4/21 – loss of 11 points)

3—Enda Bolger (0/2)

3—Tom George (0/8)

3—Paul Nicholls (3/16 – loss of 4 points)

3—David Pipe (1/7 +5)

3—Michael Scudamore (1/1 +14)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/21 +23)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/6)

2—Chris Gordon (0/1)

2—Martin Keighley (2/9 +27)

2—Fergal O’Brien (3/13 +6)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/11)

2—Lucy Wadham (No previous runners this season)

2—Richard Woollacott (0/1)

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £54.30 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 unplaced

Doncaster: £141.10 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd December

NEWBURY – DECEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £461.80 (7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 1 (Cap Soleil) & 4 (Banjo Girl)

Leg 2 (12.45): 3 (Fountains Windmill), 1 (Black Corton) & 5 (Wait For Me)

Leg 3 (1.20): 5 (O Maonlai), 4 (On Tour) & 6 (Gold Present)

Leg 4 (1.50): 3 (Air Force One) & 4 (Coeur De Lion)

Leg 5 (2.25): 1 (Charli Parcs), 7 (Cosmeapolitan) & 4 (Amore De Nuit)

Leg 6 (3.00): 14 (Missed Approach), 5 (Label Des Obeaux), 3 (American) & 2 (Whisper)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10: Dual course winner CAP SOLEIL has her ground and is being backed off the boards to extend her good Newbury record in this (otherwise) slightly disappointing ‘short field’ event.  Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whereby BANJO GIRL could prove to be the value for money alternative each way (and/or forecast) option. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

2/2—Cap Soleil (2 x good to soft)

 

12.45: Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last seven contests in which his stable was represented and Paul goes to war with his progressive six-year-old gelding BLACK CORTON who comes to the gig on a six-timer.  I successfully opposed Thistlecrack yesterday and as much as I would like to see Bryony Frost record another victory aboard Paul’s raider, I prefer the chance of FOUNTAINS WINDMILL today. Course winner WAIT FOR ME completes my trio against the other two options.  I apologise for the lack of some additional facts and stats today but I am suffering from a nasty virus/bug I picked up (I’ll wager) in one of my two visits to medical centres this week.
Favourite factor: Only three favourites have obliged during the last eleven years though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 8/1.  Only four of the last eleven market leaders secured Placepot positions in another short field contest.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/3—Wait For Me (soft)

1.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners of this event have carried weights of 11-5 or more and we have six ‘qualifiers’ to assess this year. A claiming pilot is responsible for ON TOUR slipping below the ‘superior’ weight barrier, though that has not stopped punters investing their money on the Evan Williams raider on the exchanges overnight.  Last year’s winner O MAONLAI returns to defend his crown under similar conditions carrying just two pounds more than was the case twelve months ago, despite being rated a six pound better horse this time around.  GOLD PRESENT will not represent great value though equally, it’s difficult to leave Nicky Henderson’s local hope out of the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Seven of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

2/5—Warriors Tale (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Different Gravy (soft)

2/6—O Maonlai (2 x good to soft)

2/2—Potters Cross (2 x good to soft)

1/2—No Buts (soft)

1/5—Little Jon (soft)

 

1.50: AIR FORCE ONE (seemingly) does to know how to run a bad race pure and simple, and it will take a brave punter to ignore his Placepot claims on the card.  Harry Fry’s six-year-old has won two of his four races under these projected (soft) conditions which should ensure that Noel Fehily’s mount is bang in contention at the business end of the contest, hopefully alongside COEUR DE LION who is another interesting runner for Alan King who is the joint leading trainer on this corresponding day at Newbury during the last five years on the five winner mark.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader frustratingly missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth on behalf of the Skelton team.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Old Guard (soft)

1/4—Remiluc (soft)

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1/2—Maestro Royal (good to soft)

 

2.40: Four-year-olds have won six renewals during the last eleven years and the two relevant entries (from top stables – they know stats matter) both hold decent chances, namely CHARLI PARCS (Nicky Henderson) and COSMEAPOLITAN (Alan King).  I spoke of Alan being the joint leading trainer earlier in the analysis and it is Paul Nicholls who has also landed five victories in recent times.  Paul saddles AMORE DE NUIT here, edging out High Bridge relating to my Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the study period, eight of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst each way investors might have backed the other trio who were sent off at 8/1, 11/1 & 16/1.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/2—High Bridge (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Poppy Kay (good to soft)

1/2—Cosmeapolitan (good to soft)

3.00: Six and seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 14 renewals of the ‘Hennessy’, with the seven-year-olds leading 6-5 in recent times.  Indeed, seven-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests. The average official mark of the winners during the study period was 153.  Taking the stats and facts into consideration, I have limited the field down to five runners, plenty of which offer value for money.  Alan King saddled the winner two years ago and his six-year-old raider LABEL DES OBEAUX is a six-year-old running off an official mark of 153.  Warren Greatrex has saddled a couple of winners on the corresponding card in recent years and the booking of Richard Johnson for his seven-year-old representative MISSED APPROACH catches the eye in no uncertain terms.  These horses are available at 33/1 and 25/1 respectively at the time of writing and can give investors a decent run for their collective monies according to the gospel of yours truly.  The other short listed runners consist of AMERICAN, WHISPER and COGRY.  Best of luck!
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won this event during the last 20 years, though just two of the other 14 market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.  12 of the last 14 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Coneygree (2 x soft)

1/2—Whisper (heavy)

1/1—Missed Approach (soft)

2/4—Bigbadjohn (good % good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card – followed by their five year total of winners at the corresponding Saturday meeting during the last five years:

8 runners—Paul Nicholls (5)

6—Nicky Henderson (2)

6—Nigel Twiston-Davies

4—Harry Fry

4—Alan King

3—Tom George (1)

3—Neil Mulholland

3—Colin Tizzard (4)

2—Rebecca Curtis (1)

2—Chris Gordon

2—Philip Hobbs (4)

2—Anthony Honeyball

2—Willie Mullins

2—Jonjo O’Neill

2—Ben Pauling

2—Lucy Wadham

2—Evan Williams (1)

+ I runner for Warren Greatrex who has saddled two winners down the years

+ 17 other different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £79.60 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Doncaster: £37.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle (NH): £101.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £125.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 15th November

BANGOR – NOVEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £392.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Bangor: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Agamemmon), 3 (Cloudy Beach) & 9 (Just Georgie)

Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Rene’s Girl) & 5 (The Nipper)

Leg 3 (1.45): 2 (Battle Of Shiloh), 8 (Sir Mangan) & 1 (Bigbadjohn)

Leg 4 (2.20): 2 (If The Cap Fits) & 1 (Demon D’Aunou)

Leg 5 (2.50): 2 (Dashing Oscar) & 1 (Midnight Tour)

Leg 6 (3.20): 6 (Pageburg), 1 (Beach Break) & 4 (Erick Le Rouge)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Horses carrying 11-1 or more have claimed ten of the fourteen available Placepot positions, statistics which include four of the six winners at 6/1-11/4-2/1-11/8.  Eight of the eleven runners qualify via the weight trend, whilst six and seven-year-olds have (equally) split four of the six contests.  My short list consists of CLOUDY BEACH, JUST GEORGIE (despite being 16 ounces below the ‘superior’ weight barrier) and AGAMEMMON.  The latter named Tom George raider represents a yard which has won with all three runners at the track this season.

Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.

 

1.10: RENE’S GIRL represents last year’s winning yard (see favourite stats below), whilst Dan Skelton has saddled 13 of his last 45 runners to winning effect (29% strike rate), figures which have yielded 12 points of level stake profit.  Accordingly, it’s not difficult to find that RENE’S GIRL has attracted overnight support.  That said, THE NIPPER is unbeaten at this track and ran well enough on her reappearance at Wetherby at the recent Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby to suggest that she is the main threat today.  DUSKY LEGEND is admirably consistent from a Placepot perspective but is finding it difficult to win these days.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite duly obliged for the Dan Skelton team.  As well as the positive results for the stable this season which you can find below towards the foot of the column, Dan also secured a 27% strike rate at Bangor last season.

Record of the course winner in the field:

2/2—The Nipper (good & heavy)

 

1.45: Horses carrying 11-7 or more have won five of the eleven renewals to date, whilst eight-year-olds have won four of the last six contests.  No horse possessed ticks in both of the relevant boxes last year, though BATTLE OF SHILOH and BIGBADJOHN qualify on both counts twelve months on.  Both horses are quoted at around the 11/2 mark and with the ‘dead eight’ field still intact at the time of writing, the price could attract interest on both counts.  SIR MANGAN completes my trio against the five remaining contenders.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (5/1 & 10/3**) market leaders.

Record of course winner in the third race:

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1/1—Potters Legend (soft)

 

2.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals whereby readers might be encouraged to take on the favourite (IF THE CAP FITS) with Jonjo’s vintage representative DEMON D’AUNOU.  Certainly the pair should dominate at the business end of proceedings, though IF THE CAP FITS is expected to secure a second victory for trainer Harry Fry in as many years, albeit the wrong one of the two stable contenders last year won at 3/1 against Harry’s 8/11 favourite as far as the majority of punters were concerned.  Thankfully we have no worries on that score this time around.

Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

 

2.50: Course winner DASHING OSCAR is the second (and last) Harry Fry entry on the card and as in the previous race, Harry appears to have found a decent opportunity for his declaration.  Whether ‘Oscar’ can repel fellow Bangor winner MIDNIGHT TOUR is another matter entirely though either way, this pair a have a great deal going from them in Placepot terms.  The fact that ‘Oscar’ is race fit this season might just give him the edge this afternoon. The last six runners saddled by Ian Williams since his great double on Saturday (via both codes) have subsequently been beaten, though COOL SKY looks sure to figure prominently in this grade/company, possibly without actually winning the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, albeit last year’s successful 6/4 market leader was the first to oblige from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Midnight Tour (soft)

1/3—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

 

3.20: This race invariably attracts some top trainers and this year is no exception.  With five of the nine runners (the front quintet in the market at the time of writing) making their hurdling debuts here, it’s as well to include three runners (from my viewpoint) because however much ‘jungle drums’ are telling us about the contenders, juveniles race over timber are fraught with danger until horses have actually shown ability to handle the discipline on the racecourse.  PAGEBURG (Alan King), BEACH BREAK (Donald McCain) and ERICK LE ROUGE (Nick Williams) should see us safely over the line between them, if we are still live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the finale, though it’s worth noting that just three market leaders have won.  That said, the biggest priced winner to date was sent off at just 6/1.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bangor card on Wednesday followed by this season’s stats and profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (8/21 +1)

4—Tom Symonds (0/2)

3—Harriet Bethell (No previous runners at Bangor this season)

3—Alan King (1/5 +2)

3—Donald McCain (8/27 +17)

2—Harry Fry (0/1)

2—Tom George (3/3 +7)

2—Phil Kirby (No previous winners)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/9)

2—Ben Pauling (0/2)

2—Katy Price (0/6)

2—Sue Smith (No previous runners)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/5 +15)

2—Evan Williams (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Nick Williams (0/1)

2—Venetia Williams (0/3)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £4,965.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

Exeter: £240.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): This is new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.50 Lingfield : Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG PU at 11/2 Mid-division on inside, mistake 6th, weakened, tailed off when mistake 4 out, pulled up before 3 out.

Next up is Wednesday's...

2.50 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m3.5f on Soft ground worth £14,076 to the winner.

Featuring a 7 yr old mare who won a Listed hurdle race by 6 lengths last time out. That was at Cheltenham some 30 weeks (approx 7 months) ago, but this reappearance certainly represents a drop in class for a runner that is...

  • 3/7 going left handed
  • 4/6 at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2/5 since moving to Alan King's yard
  • 2/4 in handicap hurdles
  • 2/3 on Soft ground
  • 2/3 after a break of longer than 4 months
  • 1/2 under jockey Wayne Hutchinson
  • 1/1 here at Bangor
  • and 1/1 running in November

Her trainer, Alan King's handicap hurdlers who won LTO are 16/83 (19.3% SR) for 26.3pts (+31.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which...

  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 14/49 (28.6%) for 8.6pts (+17.6%)
  • those ridden by Wayne Hutchinson are 9/43 (20.9%) for 43.5pts (+101.1%)
  • and those ridden by Wayne Hutchinson at 6/1 and shorter are 7/27 (25.9%) for 7.8pts (+29%)

Whilst since the start of last year, Alan's runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 13.8pts (+55.1% ROI)  here at Bangor, including...

  • under Wayne H : 7/20 (35%) for 6.6pts (+33.1%)
  • hurdlers are 5/12 (41.7%) for 6.4pts (+53.6%)
  • and handicappers are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.8pts (+108.5%)

The last thing that I'm going to mention is that Midnight Tour was sired by Midnight Legend. Regular/long-term readers of SotD will read extensively about the prowess of the Midnight Legend offspring, so I'm not going to churn out loads of data today, but suffice to say that his female handicap hurdlers do really well and they don't mind a bit of mud!

...directing us to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 31st October

BANGOR – OCTOBER 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £118.00 (9 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Bangor: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 6 (Dostal Phil) & 10 (Turtle Wars)

Leg 2 (1.25): 2 (Modus) & 1 (Gibalfaro)

Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Pennywell), 4 (Sauvignon) & 5 (Walter Oneeightone)

Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Ballycool), 1 (Deise Vu) & 6 (Alpine Secret)

Leg 5 (3.05): 6 (War Creation), 2 (Grand Turina) & 4 (Man Look)

Leg 6 (3.35): 4 (Haul Away) & 8 (Stylish Moment)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: Four-year-olds have won both contests thus far though to be entirely honest, vintage representatives have let the side down by failing to offer additional Placepot positions between them.  Four-year-old DOSTAL PHIL would not have to be overly smart to go very close here on his first assignment in this green and pleasant land.  Philip Hobbs knows the time of day and the famous McManus colours look set to strike gold again, unless Nicky Henderson’s recent import TURTLE WARS is a little out of the ordinary.  At least Nicky’s raider is not drifting like a barge on the exchanges overnight, unlike Jonjo’s raider Mad For Action who might otherwise have been given a chance sporting the famous Magnier/Smith/Tabor silks.  26 on the ‘machine’ at the time of writing does not augur well for his chance at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date secured gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

1.25: Fair play to John Groucott and connections for taking on two sets of leading connections here, though it looks as though Midnight Target will only pay for part of the expenses on the day.  You should never be frightened of taking on one horse as the old adage suggests, but the leading pair would give John’s representative a 25 length start if ‘sport’ dominated the business rather than money.  MODUS and GIBRALFARO are the two ‘big guns’ on show here, or at least they could have been classed that way if the latter named Alan King representative had lived up to the hype his initial successes at Kempton and Ascot attracted the thick end of two years ago.  Eight subsequent events have failed to add to the winning tally though at just five years of age, Wayne Hutchinson’s mount is young enough to carve out a decent future over the bigger obstacles.  MODUS is a couple of years older, though he is marginally less exposed than his rival whereby the age difference is not worth taking too seriously regarding what both horses might/might not achieve over fences.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites secured a Placepot position by winning the second renewal at even money, following the demise of the inaugural market leader at the same price when finishing third in a ‘short field’ race.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

2.00: Seven-year-olds have won both contests though in PENNYWELL, Warren Greatrex has declared the only vintage representative in the field.  If Warren’s mare is to oblige, readers might want to take note of the 10/3 quote by Bet365 at the time of writing, as the stable’s horses have a habit of shortening in price before scoring, especially after returning from a long absence.  Pennywell runs off a lower mark than when last seen some eighteen months ago, whereby the trainer is to be congratulated for finding such a good opportunity for ‘Thomas’ to ride his seventh winner which would be his fifth success over timber if that scenario evolves.  WALTER ONEEIGHTONE enters my ‘last chance saloon’, whilst the Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see regarding the Skelton entry SAUVIGNON.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the money via two renewals, snaring Placepot positions via a winner at 7/2  and a runner up at 5/2**.

Record of the course winner in the third race

1/11—Tribal Dance (good)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.30: BALLYCOOL is the first named raider mentioned in dispatches here, mainly because of the relevant trainer Lucinda Russell who continues to be underrated by media reports in my considered opinion.  Lucinda bagged a 31/1 double at Ayr yesterday (albeit via eight runners), whilst the Scottish based trainer boasts a 29% record here at Bangor via four winners during the last five years, scorers which have produce seven points of level stake profit.  DEISE VU and ALPINE SECRET are the obvious dangers.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite duly obliged, only for last year’s 5/2 market leader to finish out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/3—Ballycool (good to soft)

 

3.05: GRAND TURINA retains potential for sure though from a win perspective, I usually wait until the ground turns consistently soft before backing horses from the Venetia Williams yard. That does not rule out her Placepot chance here of course, though more obvious winners include WAR CREATION and (arguably) MAN LOOK.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Bangor card.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds saddled by leading trainers (Alan King and Harry Fry) have won the two contests to date and HAUL AWAY (Nicky Henderson) and STYLISH MOMENT (Alan King) should certainly land the Placepot dividend for us if are still ‘live’ going into our finale.  HAUL AWAY looks to be the clear pick of Nicky Henderson’s two runners on the card, albeit the declaration of a hood detracts from total commitment to Nicky’s Stowaway gelding.  Five pound claimer Ned Curtis boasts a 33% strike rate for the trainer however which negates the slight negative vibe that originally hit yours truly when looking up the details of the four-year-old.  STYLISH MOMENT carries the colours of Trevor Hemmings who just loves greeting winners in this part of the world and the entry immediately caught the eye accordingly.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 marker leader snared a Placepot position by claiming a silver medal before all three 3/1 co favourites finished out with the washing twelve months later. The frame was filled by horses returned at 10/1, 14/1 and 15/2.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bangor card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Oliver Greenall (0/3)

3—Sarah-Jayne Davies (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

3—John Groucott (0/3)

3—Nicky Henderson (0/2)

3—Nick Kent (No previous runners here this season)

2—Jenny Candlish (0/7)

2—Henry Daly (1/2 +17)

2—Alan King (1/3 +4)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3)

2—Henry Oliver (0/4)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/13 – loss of 10 points)

2—John O’Shea (0/6)

2—Ben Pauling (No previous runners here this season)

2—Katy Price (0/4)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/3)

2—Venetia Williams (0/1)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £154.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Chepstow: £20.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar