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Racing Insights, 11th November 2020

Getaround ran well for a long way on Tuesday, but was never able to open up a lead. He finally succumbed to faster finishers and the burden of top weight, going down by five lengths. On now to Wednesday, where the feature of the day is the Trainer Stats report, whilst our free cards are for...

  • 2.36 Exeter
  • 3.20 Dundalk
  • 3.25 Ayr
  • 5.35 Kempton
  • 6.05 Kempton

As we should all be, I'm a bit choosy about which races I look at / get involved in ans as those five contests are a novice chase, an A/W maiden, a bumper and two divisions of an A/W novice contest, I'll stay well away and revert back to the Trainer Stats report and the course 5 year handicap option, which throws up the following of interest...

...three runners in the same 7-horse contest, the 3.33 Bangor :  a Class 2, handicap hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m 3.5f on soft ground for a prize of £9,384. So let's follow my normal process of seeing whether any of our three runners are likely to feature in the final shake-up starting, of course with the racecard...

I've arranged the card into Geegeez ratings order with Chti Balko in third position and Bialco in fifth with a standardised rating of 93.5 and 80 respectively with the top three fairly closely bunched. Our third runner Tawseef has no rating having not seen a hurdle for almost 19 months!

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Form-wise, Chti Balko is clearly the best of our three, but both Mint Condition and Chirico Vallis come here in better nick (and head the ratings). Bialco steps up one class from his last run 40 days ago, whilst the three class rise for Tawseef is a little misleading. He is up three classes from his last outing, but that was a Flat contest, he's only actually up one grade from his last hurdles effort back in April 2019 and he runs off a mark 5lbs lower than that run.

Both of our trainers (Lucinda Russell & Donald McCain) have the C5 icon denoting a good sustained record at this track, but Lucinda is just 1 from 29 in the last fortnight hence the 14 and sadly her jockey here, Derek Fox has the 14 and 30 by his name, as he is 0 from 22 over the past 30 days. Will Kennedy on board Chti Balko also has the 14 and 30 but does also carry the C5 tag, as he is 0 from 16 over the last fortnight, but has an excellent 18 from 81 (22.2%) record here at Bangor over hurdles since 2016.

Our next pieces of information are provided by the Instant Expert tab on the card...

...which again proves to be disappointing for our trio from a win perspective with not much green around. From a place perspective Chti Balko has made the frame in 3 of 5 efforts at this trip and in 5 of 9 in small fields, whilst Bialco has a 3 in 6 placed record over this trip. Tawseef does at least have a win from just three Class 2 contests.

This type of contest suits those who race prominently, especially those willing to set the pace, as shown by the pace stats for this race...

...which finally gives us a little optimism as Chti Balko and Tawseef both like to be towards the head of affairs, but our prediction of a contested lead probably won't do any of the front three any favours and if they burn each other out, that opens the door for a finisher.

So far, I've got to be honest and say that there's not much here to suggest we've got a winner in our trio of highlighted runners, but let's have a closer look at them...

Bialco : Won a soft ground Class 3 contest over 2m7f at Kelso just after Christmas last year but has disappointed since. Finished 5th of 8, beaten by 24 lengths last time out coming off the back of a 31 week absence, so he probably needed the run. Unfortunately, he's now up in class and his record of 3 wins from 16 over hurdles doesn't really suggest a win here when you consider that they include 0 from 6 under jockey Derek Fox, 1 from 5 on soft, 0 from 5 at Class 2, 0 from 2 at 2m3.5f/2m4f and 0 from 1 here at Bangor. Best left alone.

Chti Balko : a winner over class, course and distance three starts ago, when pretty much making all on heavy ground to score by ten lengths and was a good second next time out at Haydock. Off the track for 10 months, though, and may very well need the run.

Has won 4 of 20 over hurdles, including 3 from 8 on heavy ground which could be useful should conditions deteriorate.

Tawseef : hasn't raced for over 15 months, hasn't won for nearly 17 months and it's almost 19 months since he last saw a hurdle, never mind a win in this sphere (that was some 35 months back!). Hard to imagine that at 12 yrs old, he's going step back up in class to land this, but has won his fair share in the past.

A veteran of 84 races across A/W, Flat and hurdles, winning 12 (14.3%) of them in a decent career, but better on the Flat it has to be said. 3 from 15 on soft ground and 3 from 14 on heavy suggest he's like the mud but those become 0 from 7 and 1 from 10 over hurdles, so may be not. He's 6 from 20 for this yard and 2 from 8 under this jockey, but I don't fancy his chances at all.

Summary

Of our three from the report, Chti Balko has the best chance, as I wouldn't be surprised if Bialco & Tawseef are the last two home here. But, that's where the optimism ends to be honest. There's a possibility Chti Balko goes well and makes the frame, but he has been off the track a ljg time and I think he'll do well to finish in the top three, as I expect Mint Condition and Chirico Vallis to be the ones to beat here.

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.10 Ayr : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leader, challenged 2f out, soon led, ridden and kept on well final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £3,574 to the winner... 

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Why?...

As usual, the racecard holds several clues...

As you can see by their respective 14, 30 and C5 icons, the Skeltons are in good form and have a good record at this track. The report angle shows they are 3 from 6 together over the last fortnight and then my own (once-again imaginatively entitled) angles tell me that Dan Skelton is one of a number of trainers who do well with Class 4/5 chasers (not all 2876 runners are his!) and he's also one of mine to follow over fences here at Bangor and I'll explain those two angles briefly for you.

We'll start with C4/5 Chs and this is the criteria I apply to the Skelton chasers...

...which has generated the following pretty self-explanatory results.

If we now take a quick look at Dan Skelton's Bangor chasers, we see that those sent off at 9/1 or shorter since the start of 2015 are...

including of relevance today...

  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 19.23pts (+71.2%) with Harry Skelton in the saddle
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.23pts (+92.6%) within 60 days of their last run
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+91.7%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 11.94pts (+298.4%) on soft ground...

...whilst Harry + 1-60dslr = 9/22 (40.9% SR) for 24.23pts (+110.1% ROI), inc 2/4 at C&D and 2/3 on soft.

One last thing that I want to touch on is the adoption of cheekpieces today. This 7 yr old mare has only worn them once before and that was eight races and almost two years ago, but I'm always interested in chasers suddenly sporting headgear, because...

...during May to September (my summer chasing season) since the start of 2016, handicap chasers sent off at Evens to 15/2 wearing headgear after failing to make the frame without any LTO are...

Now, it could just be coincidental, but that's a lot of winners/profit from a decent sample size to be pure chance, surely? And from those 240 runners, we have...

  • 59/223 (26.5%) for 96.1pts (+43.1%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 51/198 (25.8%) for 77.6pts (+39.2%) at 6-60 dslr
  • 42/154 (27.3%) for 69.2pts (+44.9%) in cheekpieces
  • 38/124 (30.7%) for 88.9pts (+71.7%) were beaten by more than 15 lengths LTO
  • and 24/96 (25%) for 42.3pts (+44%) stepped up in trip by up to 5.5 furlongs

As I said, it could be pure coincidence, but those wearing cheekpieces in 5-12 runner contests 6-60 days after being beaten by more than 15 lengths are 21 from 59 (35.6% SR) for 58.3pts (+98.8% ROI), including 3 from 3 in the last four weeks...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.20am Tuesday (a bit later than usual after a swathe of non-runners), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!