Racing Insights, Saturday 10/06/23 geegeez.co.uk

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

..plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

1.55 Punchestown
3.35 Haydock
4.00 Bangor
5.00 Beverley
6.00 Punchestown
7.30 Chepstow

...and from all the above, we have one from the TJC Report running in one of our free races, so let's head to North Wales where local hero Donald McCain and his 8 yr old Heartbreak Kid are likely to be popular in the 4.00 Bangor, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase taking in 15 fences over a left-handed 2m4½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

Featured horse Heartbreak Kid is our only LTO winner, having broken a 7-race losing spell by winning here over course and distance three weeks ago. Norley has won two of his last three and is 3 from 6 and Midnight Jewel has won 6 of his last 12, whilst Joly Maker is 3 from 8, but Ridgeway has won just one of his last nine. Yggdrasil and Fire Away, however are winless in six and seven respectively.

Yggdrasil makes a first appearance for David Pipe just seven weeks after his final outing for Jane Williams and he wears blinkers for the first time too. That seven week break is the longest of all the runners here with the remainder having raced in the last 12 to 26 days.

Only Norley, Fire Away and Ridgeway have yet to win here over course and distance, but the first two of that trio have at least won over a similar trip in the past. Instant Expert then tells me that only Yggdrasil is winless in good ground NH contests, albeit from just two efforts and we learn that all of them have won at least one Class 4 contest (Yggdrasil and Fire Away have both won at C3 too)...

Fire Away's recent poor form is reflected by a 17lb drop in weight from his last win and although Heartbreak Kid is up 5lbs from his recent win here, he's still 4lbs lower than his Uttoxeter victory last year and both Norley and Midnight Jewel have greater gaps back to their last winning mark that the kid's 5lbs.

Joly Maker's form on good ground and at Class 4 is wretched at 2/21 and 1/15 and his sole Class 4 win came on heavy ground, although that was only three starts ago. Midnight Jewel's best form has been at Class 5, but his record under today's 3lb claimer Lilly Pinchin reads 1211F24, so they clearly get on well.

The above data is for all NH races, so let's have quick look at their chasing records...

...where there are some really good numbers, especially from Heartbreak Kid and Midnight Jewel. Only the going blots the record of Yggdrasil and Norley and these four look like the main contenders here and three of them look like they'll be the ones setting the tone of the race...

...whilst Norley will be waited with. That said, the approach to a contest like this rarely boils down to pace, as there's little bias if any at play in this type of contest...

I know it looks like mid-div runners do really badly, but the sample size is so small that had two more runners won, they'd be at 17.4% up with the others, so I'm not ruling any out here on pace, but I am purely focusing on the four better runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've already cast Fire Away, Ridgeway and Joly Maker aside for reasons that will have become obvious earlier on, but I need to jettison one of my shortlist to leave me with my 1-2-3 and the unlucky one here is going to be Yggdrasil. He's sure to improve under David Pipe, but that might take a little more time and his form is the worst of my final four, so my top three are (alphabetically) Heartbreak Kid, Midnight Jewel & Norley.

Heartbreak Kid won LTO after a cold spell and although up 5lbs is still 4lbs lower than a win from last year. He won by 6 lengths here over course and distance LTO and that could have been a much bigger margin, such was the way he put the race to bed late on. Trainer & Jockey have excellent individual and joint records here and that C&D win will have given the horse vital experience.

Midnight Jewel is 211F2 over fences and was contesting the lead at the last when he fell. He's solid at this level and gets on really well with today's jockey. Had a pipe-opener over hurdles recently after a break of 196 days and should be fighting fit here today.

Norley won back to back Class 4 handicaps over similar trips to this one inside ten days in April, one over hurdles and then his first chase success. That got him walloped with a 9lb rise next/last time out, when he was only 3rd of 5 here over course and distance three weeks ago, when 10.75 lengths behind Heartbreak Kid.

The Kid beat Norley last time out by almost 11 lengths and although Norley is now 6lbs better off, I don't see him overturning that result, especially as the winner seemed to have plenty in hand. Midnight Jewel is likely to make this more of a contest, though and I don't see there being too much between him and Heartbreak Kid, so they'd be my 1-2 with Norley third best of the trio.

Heartbreak Kid should be winning this, but if he's not on his game like he wasn't for the fifteen months between his last two wins, incurring some heavy losses along the way, he could get turned over here. From the limited odds available at 4.45pm on Friday, Heartbreak Kid was the 15/8 favourite with Bet365 offering 9/2 against Midnight Jewel and I don't think the horses are that far apart, so whilst the Kid should win, the value call here is Midnight Jewel.

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