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Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

No joy yesterday as Josh's Dreamaway failed to place. She was making some headway towards the end of the race, but it was already too late in my opinion, I think she needed to have been kept a little closer to make a charge. She eventually finished in 6th, which was no disgrace, but it was 3 lengths adrift of a payout for us.

We're off chasing in North Yorkshire today where we've a family affair in a 3m 1.5f, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase on good ground (at last!). And we've eight runners lined up for the...

2.50 Catterick

Trainer Keith Reveley's record in chase events here at Catterick has been excellent over the last few years. In fact, since the start of 2010, he has managed to saddle up ten winners from thirty for a very impressive 78pts profit, a return of 260% on stakes invested.

Meanwhile, Keith's son, James has also been rattling up the winners over the Catterick chase course. James has ridden ten winners from thirty-six attempts over the same period. This strike rate of 27.8% has resulted in profits of 71pts at SP (+197.2%).

It goes without saying that many of the rides above are common to both trainer and rider, but their combined stats here are far better than they are generally. Since January 2010, they have a combined strike rate of 18.6%, which is very respectable, but in Catterick chases it becomes 39.1% (9/23). Their combined profits from all races in this period are 56pts, which gives a POI of 12%, whilst in today's type of race, they've made 80.4pts = 349.6% of stakes.

Today is the last NH meeting of the season at Catterick and the father/son combo will look to go out on a high with their only joint effort (and James' sole ride) of the day: D'Gigi

D'Gigi is a 7 yr old chestnut mare who probably isn't as straightforward as the Reveley clan would like, but has shown plenty of promise previously. She was placed here in a hurdle race last season, whilst in a run of decent form (finishes of 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the spin in increasingly more difficult races), before a fall at Aintree last May seemed to halt her progress.

It was expected that she would come on more for a switch to fences and she wasn't far short of  her winning hurdles form on just her second attempt at chasing when fifth at Doncaster over 3 miles on soft ground in November. She has had a couple of jumping issues, but I'd have expected the stable to have worked on that during her near-3 month break from the track and I'd also expect to see a better performance on this firmer surface.

This is a race that the Reveleys seem to target, having won it in both 2010 and 2011. And whilst Keith didn't have an entry last year, James went on to ride the runner-up Brokethegate who finished 1.5 lengths behind Salut Honore.

I'd expect the team to have D'Gigi as ready as she can be for this one and if the jumping remains sound, she has every chance. Thus, today's play is a 1pt win bet on D'Gigi at 7/2 BOG. This price is available pretty much everywhere, so for your favoured bookie simply...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Catterick

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 26/02/13

Stat of the Day: 26/02/13

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2013

Just enough wasn't enough yesterday, as M J Woodward failed to cling on to the lead he held around the home turn. He was eventually run out of the places too in a tight finish, as he went from 1st to 8th inside the final furlong.

Such was the competitiveness of the race, he was still less than 3 lengths off the winner at the post and less than 6 lengths covered the entire 11-runner field.

We're heading North to Yorkshire today for an interestingly open-looking Class 4 Handicap Hurdle. It's another 11-runner contest and the trip is 3 miles 1.5 furlongs on Good to Soft ground for the...

4.20 Catterick

It's a horses for courses SotD today, as we examine the merits of an 8 yr old bay mare who seems to be well suited (on paper at least!) by today's conditions.

Carmela Maria  has had a fairly modest NH career if we're totally honest: just 3 wins and 6 places from 29 races, where backing her blindly would have seen you break even at SP and make a small 1.65pts profit to E/W stakes. So we need something else to convince us to back her.

Today's race is a handicap event and all three previous wins have been on handicap company, where she has 3 wins and 4 places from 22 starts. Win and place strike rates of 13.6% and 31.8% have produced profits of 7pts (+31.8% POI) and 11.65pts (+26.5%) respectively, whilst all those wins and places have come in Class 4 contests like today's. At this level, her strike rates improve to 17.6% (for +12pts = +70.6% POI) and 41.2% (for 17.25pts = POI of 50.7%)

All three NH victories have come here at Catterick, where she is 3/8 for +21pts. All have been at today's trip where is she is 3/6 for +23pts over C&D.

All three wins have also come in fields of 10 to 13 runners and whilst wearing blinkers. The cut in the ground should be of too much an issue either, she has decent form in those conditions too.

So, today sees us considering a Catterick Class 4 Handicap race over the preferred trip of 3m 1.5f where our selection is in a field of 10-13 runners wearing blinkers. And whilst it look like I may have filtered this down a little too much, it does show that today represents her optimum conditions, as this will be the fifth time she has raced with all those parameters in place: winning three of the previous four.

I'm looking at a safety-first E/W bet today and the best price available (9.50am) is 7/1 BOG across the board.

It's unusual for all the firms to agree so early in the morning, so you shouldn't have any problems getting the same price as me. I've still some got a little bonus money left in my BetVictor account, so I'll be backing Carmela Maria with them, but to see what your favourite bookie is offering...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 4.20 Catterick

The full racecard for today's race is right here, too.

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013

Stat of the Day: 01/02/13

Stat of the Day: 01/02/13

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013

So, January has been and gone and despite an indifferent month, SotD returned with 6.33pts profit (22.6% POI). This could have been improved slightly with the benefit of hindsight, had we gone E/W on yesterday's selection. Flying Award drifted out from my 9/2 as far as 6/1 at one point before returning as a runner-up at 11/2.

I know many of you took the E/W option at 6/1, which was good news for you and had that been available at the time I want to press, I'd have done the same! Nevertheless, I was happy enough with the selection, I just felt that the jockey needed to have done a little bit more earlier on to pressurize the winner.

We're off to Yorkshire today, and just like yesterday we've testing ground (officially soft) and once again the trip is a sapping 3 miles 1.5 furlongs for a 12-runner, Class 3 Handicap Hurdle, shown on your racecards as the...

2.45 Catterick

I'm not often one to advise the blanket/blind backing of a trainer, but sometimes there's profitable angles in doing so. In recent times, Malcolm Jefferson has excelled in producing consistent returns from handicap races.

If we look at Mr. Jefferson's horses in NH handicap contests only: he has saddled 37 winners from 212 races since the start of 2011: this strike rate of 17.45% is profitable to the tune of 174pts at SP. That's a return of 82% on your money, which would be improved at either betfair SP or by taking early BOG odds.

In races of 5 runners of more: 79 successful E/W bets from 208 (38%) yielding 235pts profit at SP (56.5% return)

These figures are impressive enough to warrant attention, but as we all know, trainers are creatures of habit and tend to have their horses "ready" at certain specific times of the year and Malcolm seems to be no exception. During the two-year time frame mentioned above, 23 of those runners ran in the month of February, yielding five winners (21.7%) and a total of eleven placed finishes (47.8%). These results have meant profits of 33.5pts (145.7%) for the win backers, whilst a more cautious E/W approach has still netted 55pts (119.6%)

Mr Jefferson has two such runners today: Quite The Man would look to have a squeak of an E/W chance if the blinkers take effect in the 3.55 race (currently 12/1), but I think the stable's better chance lies with Sun Cloud.

Sun Cloud looked very much like an improving sort on the up when landing a 3m1f contest on soft ground at Wetherby back in November, but was admittedly disappointing next time out at Doncaster. He laboured home as a 5th placed 3/1 favourite that day, some 28 lengths off the winner. the general consensus was that the race had come too soon after his Wetherby exertions (just 14 days between the two) and he's had a good nine-week rest since then and is expected to fire again now fresh.

I'm happy to take another chance of him picking up where he left off at Wetherby and putting the Doncaster run down to being the wrong time for him and my play today is 0.5pts E/W on Sun Cloud at 10/1 BOG with Boylesports, but for the odds at your preferred bookmaker...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.45 Catterick

 

***It seems the price has changed whilst I was typing the post! Best price is now 8/1 (at 11.00 am), so we'll take 8/1 as our advised price.***

 

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Well I Declare, 5th December

Well I Declare, 5th December

Well I Declare, 5th December

The meetings from Catterick, Hereford, Kempton and Lingfield come under Mal Boyle's scrutiny in a reminder of Well I Declare for...

...WEDNESDAY (05/12):

Catterick:

General stats: Brian Ellison has won with four of the eleven runners he has saddled at Catterick under the NH code in recent times. 

 

Hereford:

General stats: Rebecca Curtis, Nicky Henderson and Jim Best all boast 33% strike rates with a decent amount of runners, whilst trainers with impressive ratios with less raiders include Alistair Lidderdale (3/6), Richard Woolacott (2/3) and John Ferguson (2/5).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Although the relevant 11% strike rate is nothing to write home about, Jo Crowley’s LSP figure of sixty-eight points lights my blue touch-paper!

3.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (11/4) winner.

4.20: Two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) thus far.

4.50: Three-year-olds have won all four renewals whilst securing nine of the ten available toteplacepot positions.  Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two of the four winners.

5.20: Richard Hannon has declared two runners for this event but I should warn you that Richard is responsible for all four beaten favourites in the race to date.  Three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (7/2 & 11/8) winners.

6.20: All seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. We still await the first successful favourite in this event, whilst four of the nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

6.50: The three favourites to date have secured two gold and one bronze medal.  The two winners were sent off at 9/2 and 100/30, whilst the third placed market leader was returned at 11/2.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Trainer Pat Phelan is back among the winners and Pat’s sixty points of level stake profits during the last five years at Lingfield catch the eye.

Well I Declare: 20th October

Well I Declare: 20th October

Well I Declare: 20th October

Mal Boyle's final preview of the week focuses on the action planned for Ascot, Catterick, Cheltenham, Kelso & Wolverhampton. With racinmg both North and South of the Border and a good mix of Flat, NH and All-weather, there should be something for everyone today on...

...SATURDAY 20/10:

Ascot:

General stats: James Fanshawe is one of the few trainers who can boast a 19% strike at Ascot (10/52) during the last five years, whilst it’s worth noting that the trainer has not saddled a juvenile at the racecourse during the study period.

 

Catterick:

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General stats: Ed Dunlop is making up for a poor season (by his high standards) late doors to a fashion and anything that Ed sends to Catterick is worth a second glance via his 3/5 ratio.

‘Catterick Dash’ scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests.

Seven furlong juvenile event scheduled for 3.25: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last ten winners.  Four of the last seven favourites have obliged.

Cheltenham:

General stats: Make of these level stake figures what you well at Cheltenham during the last five years; Nicky Henderson has accrued forty points of profit, against a loss of seventy-seven by Paul Nicholls.  Don’t shoot the messenger!

Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 2.30: Six-year-olds have secured five of the last nine contests.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals.  Eight-year-olds have won three of the five contests thus far.  Philip Hobbs had secured a medal of each colour before the trainer ‘upped the ante’ by securing a second winner twelve months ago.  Just like last year, Balthazar King was Philip’s only option at the five-day stage.

Class 3 handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs scheduled for 4.20: The last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.30: Eight renewals have passed by since the last favourite obliged, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests.

Kelso:

General stats: Only Nicky Richards (23 winners) can beat Lucinda’s figures at Kelso (22) during the last five years, as mentioned in the first part of this week’s content.

Class 4 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.50:  No winning favourite recorded since 2004 (seven renewals).

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Conveniently ignoring runaway leader Mark Johnston (mentioned earlier in despatches), it’s worth noting that three other leading trainers have saddled plenty of winners at Wolverhampton during the last five years, namely Kevin Ryan (61), Richard Fahey (60) and Tom Dascombe (56).

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012

Stat of the Day 20/10

Stat of the Day 20/10

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012

In what now seems like Groundhog Day, I can tell you that yesterday's selection Chosen Character finished second, our sixth horse in the last week to make the frame. Unfortunately, we were on a 4/1 shot yesterday, so no E/W return to report this morning.

We're heading East over the Pennines today to check on an old battler tackling a mile and a half in a Class 6 Claimer. Our selection is due to face 10 rivals on soft/heavy ground in the...

4.00 Catterick

Trainer Geoffrey Harker has a decent enough record in non-handicap events at Catterick. He has a win strike rate of 26.2% and a place strike rate of 42.9% from 42 runners since April 2008. That's pretty good going to maintain that level of consistency over a sustained period of time. And in his yard, he has a horse who really loves Catterick and saves his best form for the course, but we'll come to him in a moment!

I don't want the outstanding performance of today's horse to detract from Mr Harker's record without him. Our selection aside: the trainer still boasts a 22.2% strike rate in these events, which is some achievement in itself.

It will now come as no surprise to SotD regulars that Geoffrey Harker only runs one horse today. This is, of course, our selection: Eijazz.

At the top of this piece, I mentioned an old battler and Eijazz certainly fits the profile! He's an 11 yr old veteran of some 92 races: winning 13 of them and making the frame a further 26 times. A win strike rate of 14.1% and a place strike of 42.4% wouldn't have made you rich backing him blindly. In fact the winning bets would have left you looking at a loss of 4.90pts at level stakes.

However, when it comes to Catterick, the story changes...
In all races: 8 wins from 33 (24.2%), 11.5pts profit (34.8% ROI), 22 placed finishes (66.67%) generating 31.2pts profit for E/W backers.
Non-handicaps: 7 from 16 (43.8%), 13.5pts profit (84.4% ROI), 15 placed finishes (93.8%) generating 27.9pts from E/W bets
Non-hcps over today's trip: 7 from 15 (46.7%), 14.5pts profit (96.7% ROI), 14 placed finishes (93.3%) generating 28.4pts from E/W bets

There'll be some cut in the ground today, of course, but that won't bother him, he has won here on soft ground and he won his only ever race on heavy ground (also here at Catterick).

In short, the trainer has a decent Catterick record without Eijazz, but Eijazz has won on the course 8 times: 7 of those over C&D, including this same race in 2010.

He has a little to find at the weights today and this is reflected in the price of 8/1 BOG (Bet365), so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Eijazz at 8/1 BOG with bet365, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.00 Catterick.

Sat TV Trends: 20th Oct 2012

It's Champions Day at Ascot.....

A huge day of TV action with BBC races at Ascot, while the C4 cameras head to Cheltenham, Kelso & Catterick.... Read more

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2012

Stat of the Day 22/09

Stat of the Day 22/09

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2012

It was one of those special days for SotD yesterday as our advised bet Emkanaat came home as a 7/1 winner, after we'd backed it E/W at 20/1. There was a 10p Rule 4 deduction from my bet, so my 1pt stake actually returned 11.8pts, so still better than 1pt win at SP!

Our day was rounded off nicely when I discovered Ingleby Angel (mentioned at 3/1) won at 15/8 and that Afraah (mentioned at 2/1) won at 7/4. I know some of you backed the three in a trixie and I know some of you did the doubles, so well done to you for sticking your necks out. I wish I could tell you about the 250/1 treble I had, but I didn't have it.  Wishful thinking and hindsight are wonderful things.

Yet for all that success, we have to go again today and it's not looking easy! There are no outstanding stats on offer today, the top trainers at the tracks today are all running 5 or 6 horses and there's no apparent plot/plan to them from our point of view, so it's my turn to hit Matt's randomiser button.

So, we're off to North Yorkshire for a tea time Class 6 Handicap over 7 furlongs. The going is set to be good to firm, as 14 runners contest a competitive-looking...

5.25 Catterick

Tracy Waggott's yard has had a bit of a lean time recently, but her string are showing signs of a return to form and she had a winner at Pontefract on Thursday to confirm this. She's actually got three runners at Catterick today: Miss Bossy Boots (33/1) seems to be making up the numbers in the 4.15 race and although Thrust Control looks to have a decent chance at 9/2 in the 5.55 race, our selection today is No Quarter.

No Quarter actually won this same race last year and as a result has to enter calculations. He is currently 2lb lower than when winning this event last year and his recent performances have been decent: he hasn't been out of the top four in any of his last six starts. He had a poor draw last year but still got up late to take the race, the draw seems to have been much kinder to him this time around and he's well weighted to strike again.

It's a difficult race to call, but our selection should hopefully just have the edge. The tightness of the race is reflected in the market with just one point separating the first three in the betting. No Quarter is actually the outsider of those three and we might grab ourselves some value with a 1pt win bet at the 5/1 BOG generally available, but you can always...

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.25 Catterick.

Well I Declare: 22nd September

Well I Declare: 22nd September

Well I Declare: 22nd September

Mal Boyle closes his week out with a quick reminder of his thoughts on the racing at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton on a busy...

...SATURDAY 22/09:

AYR:

General stats: Keith Dalgleish is back among the winners and a big race winner at Ayr cannot be far away given his racecourse ratio of 20% via sixteen winners, figures backed up by an LSP return of twenty-three points.

Ayr Gold Cup scheduled for 3.30: David Nicholls has saddled four winners during the last decade against Kevin Ryan’s pair of winners during the study period.  Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests.  The ten winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 33/1 with no successful market leaders recorded.  Eight of the eleven favourites secured toteplacepot positions.  Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2.

‘Draw details’ (six furlongs)

12-16-9-15 (26 ran-soft)

17-24-8-11 (26 ran-good)

15-6-9-3 (26 ran-good)

20-21-26-11 (27 ran-heavy)

22-6-9-18 (28 ran-good to soft)

6-16-9-26 (23 ran-good to soft)

2-4-27-3 (27 ran-good)

8-16-18-20 (24 ran-soft)

10-14-6-1 (26 ran-good)

16-10-15-18 (28 ran-good)

 

CATTERICK:

General stats: Jo Hughes raiders are invariably worth a second glance given her 2/4 strike rate, which is improved to 1/1 via her one juvenile raider to date.

 

NEWBURY:

General stats: The 5/15 ratio enjoyed by Patrick Chamings at Newbury is worth reporting, as is his fifteen points of level stake profit at the venue in recent years.

 

NEWMARKET:

General stats: Andrew Balding and Ralph Beckett have produced an aggregate of two hundred and thirty-five points of level stake profits during the last five years via their combined total of twenty-eight winners at the venue.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Gerard Butler’s 23% strike rate via eighteen winners has produced an LSP figure of thirty-two points of level stake profits at Dunstall Park.

Trainer Stats – 19th Sept 2012

Al Zarooni Fresh From His Leger Win

This week Andy Newton’s got six in-form flat trainers to look out for, plus one high profile name you might want to avoid. Read more

Well I Declare: 29th August

Well I Declare: 29th August

Well I Declare: 29th August

Wednesday's action comes from Carlisle, Catterick, Kempton, Wolverhampton and Worcester and here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the day ahead...

WEDNESDAY 29/08:

Carlisle:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott held two options at the Cumbrian circuit at the weekend, Mark having saddled three of his four runners at the racecourse to winning effect in recent years. 

 

Catterick:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott held two options at the time of writing, the trainer attempting to build on his 23% strike rate at venue during the last five years. 

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2.10: Three favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven of the eight winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

2.40: All eight winners during the last decade have been sent off at 10/1 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

3.10: Five of the seven winners thus far have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-7. Three favourites have won since the inaugural running back in 2005 during which time.

3.40: The last seven gold medallists have carried weights of 9-2 or less.  Successful market leaders have only been conspicuous by their absence via eight contests during the last decade.  That said, three of the last four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.10: Six of the last nine available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses sent off in double figures, statistics which include the last two (16/1 & 14/1) winners. Four renewals have slipped by since the first two favourites obliged back in 2005/6.

4.40: The last six winners of the toteplacepot finale carried a maximum burden of 9-1. All eight winners during the last decade have scored at odds of 10/1 or less, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

5.10 & 5.45 (two divisions of the contest): Six of the eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of nine stones during which time, just one favourite has obliged. The other seven winners were sent off at odds ranging between 7/1 and 25/1, which four gold medallists returned in double figures.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Michael J Murphy’s 4/7 strike rate from the saddle in recent times attracts the eye in no uncertain terms.  Michael’s figures include a positive level stake profit of over twenty points during the period.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian would have hoped for a better Ebor meeting but a week is a long time in the sport of kings whereby Roger will be attempting to improve his impressive Wolverhampton strike rate of 7/15 at Dunstall Park.

 

Worcester:

General stats: Rachel Green continues to excel at the track having now ridden eleven winners from just twenty-one opportunities.  The incredible ratio has produced a level stake profit of eighty-five points.

Well I Declare, 17th August

Well I Declare: 17th August

Well I Declare: 17th August

It's a case of new, new, new today! Please take care when placing your bets, as we have meetings from Newbury, Newcastle & Newmarket on the same day! The alliteration is continued at Nottingham and there's also action from Catterick & Kempton for good measure. Here's your daily reminder of Mal Boyle's insights on the day's racing.

 

FRIDAY 17/08:

Catterick:

General stats: Favourites backers endured a desperate week last year as you might have already gathered!  This meeting was no different because after the first market leader obliged at 5/1, the other gold medallists scored at 28/1-18/1-11/1-10/1-7/1.  Another four figure toteplacepot dividend was declared.  The message is clear (especially with plenty of rain coming down at the time of writing whereby conditions might change again), ease up with your stakes unless you are playing with the opposition’s money. 

 

Newbury:

General stats: The start of a two-day meeting at which four favourites were successful (just the one on Friday) via sixteen races last year.  Patrick Chamings scored the first of two winners at 9/2 on the Friday prior to his 9/1 gold medallist which opened the Saturday card.  Roger Charlton secured a 41/1 double on the opening day.  Four winners were returned in double figures at 20/1 (Richard Price), 16/1 (Roger Charlton), 11/1 (Sir Michael Stoute) and 11/1 (Denis Coakley).

Class 4 two-year-old maiden event scheduled for 1.50: John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor have each won two of the six renewals to date, whilst all six favourites have finished in the money to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs--latest result first):

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

Thirteen furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 2.50: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record four victories during the last decade.  One clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last fourteen years (one non runner--withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst six of the fourteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Listed St Hugh’s Stakes scheduled for 3.25: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (5/2) favourite obliged. Four favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, with seven of the fourteen market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen renewals.

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'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Class 4 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 4.00: Six of the eight winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

3-6-7 (9 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good)

8-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

15-5-11 (14 ran-good)

3-6-7 (13 ran-good)

2-6-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-13-16 (15 ran-good to soft)

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Ed Dunlop held three options for this meeting at the five-day stage, the trainer boasting impressive 5/10 stats during the recent seasons. Just ten points of level stake profits have been realised during the period though looking positively at that scenario, it simply means that Ed’s horses was well fancied before winning their respective events. 

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Two of the six favourites were successful on the middle day of the meeting last year, though the other four winners were returned at odds of 22/1 (Peter Chapple-Hyam), 20/1 (Noel Quinlan), 10/1 A(Andrew Balding) and 9/1 (David Nicholls).

 

Nottingham:

General stats: I struggle with one Nottingham fixture during the course of a week, let alone two!  Out of Interest, Tom Queally sent his supporters home happy twelve months ago by riding the last two winners at odds of 5/1 and 3/1 (23/1 double).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Chevise (5.45 & 6.45) is doubly engaged at the meeting at the time of writing with Steve Woodman having saddled his fair share of winners at the Sunbury circuit, producing seven points of level stake profits in recent times.

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

No excuses offered for yesterday's performance: I fully expected Rockweiller to at least grab a place, but he was disappointing, if the truth be told. I took 11/2 about him in the morning and he went off at 9/2. There didn't seem to be any lack of effort, but when the leaders pressed the button, he had nothing extra to give. Just looking at the fact he finished 4th doesn't tell the whole story, he was actually more than 13 lengths behind the winner.

So, today we're back on grass and heading up to North Yorkshire, where our selected jockey has developed a bit of a liking for this particular course. The race in question is a Class 5 Handicap over a trip just 8 yards shy of 6 furlongs. The ground is good to firm (firm in places) and eleven runners are due to be loaded up for the...

3.20 Catterick

Our jockey in question today is Silvestre de Souza and his record at Catterick is excellent. 50 winners from 245 rides represents a strike rate in excess of 20% and these winners have generated level stakes profits of almost 138pts at SP. That's a very healthy profit of over 56% on any stakes wagered. This career 20% strike rate has actually been at 21.3% for the last couple of years, so we're not relying on old data here to support our stats.

As it happens, Silvestre has a busy day ahead of him, the last race of the 7-race card is the only race he isn't scheduled to contest. You can make a good case for all his rides today, but the one I like the best is Ferdy in the 3.20. This horse is still unexposed in these sprint handicaps and won well here last time out (2 weeks ago) over course and distance, beating Ruth Carr's Chosen One quite comfortably in the end. Chosen One reappeared 4 days later and came home a winner!

High draws tend to fare best here over 6 furlongs and Ferdy is drawn 11 of 11 today, he was 11 of 12 last time out, so that should also count in his favour. The main challenge today is likely to come from Oakbrook, who won the second division of Ferdy's successful outing here, but that race didn't look as strong as the first division and our mount looked far more impressive.

The best price for Ferdy at the moment is 4/1 BOG with a variety of firms: you take your pick! But if you choose to leave it later, be sure to come back and...

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.20 Catterick.

PS If we look at Mr de Souza's record on horses priced 6/1 or under, we can then see his strike rate increase to an impressive 30%!

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