Tix Picks, Tuesday 29/10/24
Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Bangor, Catterick, Chepstow & Newcastle.
But, what is Tix?
A video explainer can be found here.
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
Once again, the Newcastle pot is the largest, but let's have a change of scenery and head for Catterick, where the ground is expected to be soft for...
Leg 1 @ 12.40, a 4-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 5f...
Hi Lord was second on debut at Hamilton four weeks ago a length and a quarter behind a 5/4 favourite on good to soft ground, Farandaway has been runner-up on both starts today and was only beaten by a neck when caught close to the line last time out, so the drop in trip might help, whilst Genius Mistake's form reads 24, but she has been beaten by 9.5 lengths and 2.5 lengths in her last two. Sarabi was a well beaten (11 lengths) 7th of 8 on debut at Wolverhampton last week.
So, based on the above form and distances beaten, I'll take (2) Farandaway as my pick here, but I'll also add (3) Hi Lord as back-up.
Leg 2 @ 1.12, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...
Kyber Crystal has two wins and two places from her last six starts and course and distance winner Fortunate Star has made the frame on each of his last two starts, whilst Too Much Too Young & Turn And Burn both won four races ago, but haven't made the frame since.
Fortunate Star probably edges it on relevant form over the last couple of years and at 11lbs below his last win could be dangerously weighted, although only Quanah has any soft ground form to show...
That said, Quanah is currently enduring a fairly modest set of results and I think I'll just stick with the top two on the card, although Too Much Too Young worries me from a pace perspective.
Leg 3 @ 1.42, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...
Lennox has shown progression with pretty much each race since finishing 7th of 9 on debut at Kempton a year ago, finishing 322U1 and was very comfortable when winning at Southwell last time out stepped up in trip. His 6lbs 3yo weight allowance should also be very useful here today, as well in might for Local Arms and Kings Scholar, especially with the former dropping two classes here.
Our pace/draw heat map points towards the two drawn highest...
...and Clansman is the only runner to have already won over today's trip (Thirsk on heavy in April), although Dreams Adozen did win over 1m4½f on heavy ground at Chester in June. She also looks really well suited to today's conditions...
and with a recent pace profile of...
...it's not entirely inconceivable that she runs clear early doors and hangs on for a place, so I'll take (3) Dreams Adozen as my back up to (5) Lennox & (6) Local Arms
Leg 4 @ 2.12, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Quite a few of these come here in good nick, including Homer Stokes, a winner three times in his last four, all over this course and distance and arrives here on a hat-trick. Sir Garfield has been in the first two home six times in his last seven outings, winning twice including last time out at Ayr and a course and distance win here in July.
Desert Dream is also a former course and distance winner, having done so in back to back races in August/September, after which he was 3rd of 12 on the A/W at Chelmsford before returning here to finish second of nine over track/trip ten days ago at Class 4. The 10 yr old doesn't seem to be slowing down and a drop in class will help here too. Mister Sox is also a course and distance winner dropping in class and he has been on the first two home in five of his last eight, but was beaten by over eight lengths here last time out.
And if we look back at the wins achieved by this field over the last two years, it's Homer Stokes, Sir Garfield and Desert Dream who catch the eye the most...
Those drawn highest have fared well here in the past, so that's another tick for (9) Desert Dream. (3) Homer Stokes sets the standard over course and distance and does like to lead or race prominently, which is usually a good tactic here, whilst (5) Sir Garfield led last time out and has been a model of consistency since the summer, so I'll take this trio.
Leg 5 @ 2.47, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...
The top two on the card, Bonne Vitesse and Captain Potter, both won last time out, but the former might need the run after a five-month break, whilst the latter was a course and distance winner four weeks ago. Malinka won two races ago and as sole 3yo in the race, she's helped here by an 8lbs weight allowance and although he's winless in twelve races over the last fourteen months, Tarbat Ness is now only 3lbs higher than that last win and he has made the frame in seven of those twelve defeats, finishing as runner-up in six of them including his last two, both this month (here over C&D on soft and over 2m1f at Bath on heavy) and he's actually the pick of the pack when it comes to relevant place form over the last two years...
That said, he'd still be an unlikely winner, but does have the talented Gina Mangan in the saddle, who has got a decent tune out of him in those last two races and she has a good record riding for John Berry...
(1) Bonne Vitesse and (2) Captain Potter are the easy/lazy picks of form, but I do think that there's another good race due from (7) Tarbat Ness, so I'll have all three on my Tix ticket builder today.
Leg 6 @ 3.22, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...
Game Breaker has won two of her last three and Count D'Orsay has won two from four, but with recent results reading 1161, it's Hour By Hour bringing the best form to the table. Jungle Land, Princess Alex and Knicks all finished third on their last outings.
Hour by Hour actually drops in class today, as does Princess Alex, but both Game Breaker and Knicks step up from Class 5. Count D'Orsay's win over course and distance on soft ground ten days ago is the only time any of these have won on this track.
Similar past races here have favoured those drawn highest, but early pace has been even more important than the draw. That said, the two most likely to set the early tempo are drawn in the highest third of the stalls...
...whilst my Instant Expert shortlist looks like this...
I'm definitely having (1) Hour By Hour here and of the rest (2) Count D'Orsay probably ticks most boxes leaving me to pick from Game Breaker, Jungle Land, Princess Alex and Knicks. Game Breaker fails on both pace and relevant form. There's not much between the other three in my mind, but at the risk of ignoring Knicks' soft ground prowess, he is up in class, so I'll take class-dropper and pacemaker (7) Princess Alex to complete my selections for the day.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (2) Farandaway & (3) Hi Lord
Leg 2: (1) Kyber Crystal & (2) Fortunate Star
Leg 3: (3) Dreams Adozen, (5) Lennox & (6) Local Arms
Leg 4: (3) Homer Stokes, (5) Sir Garfield & (9) Desert Dream
Leg 5: (1) Bonne Vitesse, (2) Captain Potter & (7) Tarbat Ness
Leg 6: (1) Hour By Hour, (2) Count D'Orsay & (7) Princess Alex
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck, as always!
Chris
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