Radiance looks the potential class act on show at Salisbury as she bids to follow up debut success in the Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes.
A 150,000 guineas breeze-up purchase by the Highclere Thoroughbred Racing team, the daughter of Farhh was an odds-on favourite for her introduction at Yarmouth in early July and justified that position with an impressive victory.
That form does not look particularly strong, with the runner-up Conjecture beaten twice since and the third home Sing The Blues disappointing at Newbury next time, but what cannot be questioned is the authoritative fashion in which Radiance left that pair trailing in her wake once the penny dropped.
Trainer George Boughey was talking about testing his juvenile in stakes company in the immediate aftermath and this race looks an ideal stepping-stone to something fancier next time.
Emma Lavelle does not have many runners on the Flat, but in Chilli Queen she looks to have inherited a smart one.
Unplaced in two starts for Andrew Balding last year, the three-year-old has looked a different filly since switching yards, with a couple of runner-up finishes followed by a hat-trick of wins.
There was no sign of her progress coming to an end when scoring with a bit in hand at Ascot last time and must have every chance of completing her four-timer in the British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap.
Shady Bay is expected to complete her hat-trick as the Racing League rolls into town at Windsor.
The daughter of New Bay looked fairly limited after three outings in novice and maiden company, but that allowed her to enter the handicap sphere off a mark in the low-60s and she has steadily improved.
Tom Ward’s filly struggled over a mile and a half in May and June, but was well backed when dropped to a mile and a quarter at Nottingham in early June and the gamble was landed in some style as she fairly bolted up at the chief expense of San Francisco Bay, who went one better next time.
A 6lb rise in the weights was nowhere enough to stop Shady Bay from following up on her most recent appearance at Newbury and while another 6lb hike will make life tougher, she is clearly in the rude health ahead of the Racing League Race 23 Handicap and appears well suited to fast ground.
Shady Bay’s rider Richard Kingscote leads the way in this year’s Racing League jockeys’ standings and could also find the target aboard the Andrew Balding-trained Lieber Power in the £50,000 Racing League Race 27 Handicap.
It has been a little while between drinks for the five-year-old whose last victory came in this team competition at Chepstow 12 months ago.
He attempted to defend his crown in the same race last week in Monmouthshire and while he came up short, there was enough promise in his performance in finishing third to suggest a return to winning ways may not be far away.
Beverley punters are advised to put their faith in Catching The Moon in the curtain-raising Ire-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes.
Richard Fahey’s youngster was unfortunate to bump into the Boughey-trained and Highclere-owned Awaken on her Leicester debut, a filly who had previously picked up the silver medal behind Venetian Sun in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Catching The Moon was clearly best of the rest in the Midlands and a repeat of that effort may well suffice in East Yorkshire.
SELECTIONS:
BEVERLEY: 2.10 Catching The Moon, 2.40 Imso Friendly, 3.12 Grey Horizon, 3.47 Fenlander, 4.20 Red Force One, 4.55 Sunny Orange.
CHELMSFORD: 6.15 Colors Of Freedom, 6.45 Dartrey, 7.15 Medinilla, 7.45 Local Music, 8.15 Majaz, 8.45 Jack Andrea.
CHEPSTOW: 2.30 Fossos, 3.00 Shetakesthegold, 3.35 Portacloy, 4.10 Rival, 4.45 Soi Dao, 5.15 Pure Artistry.
CORK: 5.22 Cactus, 5.52 Tomarlo, 6.22 Black Caviar Gold, 6.52 Dance Night Andday, 7.22 Elana Osario, 7.52 Edge Of Seventeen, 8.25 Mullacash Buzz.
TRAMORE: 5.05 Ma Belle Etoile, 5.35 Mic Drop, 6.05 Tatateo, 6.35 Jerrari, 7.05 Time In A Bottle, 7.35 Mother Ship, 8.05 Winter Fog.
WINDSOR: 5.00 Clearpoint, 5.30 Shady Bay, 6.00 Gloriously Sassy, 6.30 King Of Light, 7.00 Jimmy Speaking, 7.30 Lieber Power, 8.00 Mr Swivell.
DOUBLE: Radiance and Shady Bay.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/DavidProbert_newGeegeezLogo-e1538582067746.jpg313830Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-08-13 09:19:442025-08-13 09:19:44Radiance should be class act at Salisbury
A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.
Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.
Introduction
Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable.
The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.
The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:
Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.
Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.
Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.
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Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases
It is time to start the countdown:
10. Kempton 7f
Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.
Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:
An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.
9. Lingfield 6f
Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:
Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.
At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.
8. Chelmsford 1m
This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs):
As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.
7. Kempton 6f
Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.
Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.
6. Chelmsford 6f
The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.
Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.
5. Wolverhampton 5f
The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:
This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:
Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.
In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.
4. Chelmsford 7f
The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:
Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.
It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:
Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:
Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:
The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.
3. Southwell 5f
This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:
A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:
The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.
It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!
2. Chelmsford 5f
The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.
In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.
1. Lingfield 5f
Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:
If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.
Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:
Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.
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Conclusion
The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.
Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.
As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.
For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.
Until next time...
- DR
Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez
In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.
And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.
- Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/David_Marco.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-12-04 09:16:202024-12-04 09:16:20Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
The money is good on the Essex Speedway so let's head for the polytrack for six races beginning with...
5.00 Chelmsford, a 15-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies maiden over 7f...
Six of the fifteen have yet to race and are therefore unknown quantities, so in races like this if I'm having three picks, I tend to take two with experience and one debutant and of those with a run under their belts Magic Glow, Mrs Dowley and Sheephavensbay set the benchmark.
Magic Glow was a 1.5 length runner-up on debut at Wolverhampton in September, but never really got involved back there next/last time out a fortnight later, but if running like she did first time out that might be enough here. Mrs Dowley was third of twelve on her sole start to date, finishing strongly at Wolverhampton over 6f just three days ago and she might well relish the extra furlong, whilst Sheephavensbay produced her best effort to date last time out when beaten by less than a length over 7f at Wolverhampton (3rd of 11) last time out.
Low draws work well here over 7f and the trio above are in stalls 3, 4 and 15, but despite a poor draw, Sheephavensbay has that Chelmsford non-negotiable early pace...
Of the newcomers Antalya, Casual Encounter and Queen Sansa appeal more than the other three. Antalya is by Time Test and is half-sister to 5f winner Istanbul and 6f winners Darwina and Soulofchess. The dam Anadolu won over 5f too, so there's plenty of pace in her breeding.
Casual Encounter is by Passing Glance and is a half-sister to 1m3½f winner City Spirit. She's out of Cape Spirit whose own best efforts came at 1m3f to 1m6f, so this one might well need further in time. Queen Sansa is by dual Group 1, 1m2f winner Almanzor out of New Jazz who was a winner over a mile and made the frame in 5 of 7 starts at 7f to 1m1f.
Casual Encounter has the best of the draw in stall 6 of this trio, but I think I'll take (2) Antalya from the debutants along with (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley in this tricky opener.
5.30 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 7f...
Needlepoint sets the standard on form, having won a 5.5f maiden at Chantilly on her sole outing, but much will depend on her fitness after 17 months off. Of those with a more recent run, Space Trooper has finished 332 so far and was 3rd of 7 over 1m here on debut two months ago and most lately a 1.5 length runner-up over 7f at Newcastle, whilst bottom weight Anamika was also a runner-up last time out going down by just half a length here at Chelmsford over a mile. And having made most that day and caught late on, the drop back to 7f might help.
Safety first, I'll take all three; (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika due to concerns about the top weight's fitness.
6.00 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Riot is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ran a decent race at Wolverhampton last time out. Ultramarine has made the frame in seven of his last eight over the past three months.
Extrication was a three length runner up here over course and distance four weeks ago, whilst Arctic Dawn is 223 in his last three, finishing as runner-up beaten by half a length and a length on his two A/W starts and former course & distance winner Airshow completes my shortlist having been in the frame in five of his last six and he's one of the more likely front runners from my shortlist...
...and whilst he's be an unlikely winner off his current mark, he's consistent and could well make the frame again at a big price, but I'd expect him to play second fiddle to the equally consistent Ultramarine and Arctic Dawn, so lets take those three from this one.
6.30 Chelmsford, a 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 1m...
Respiro Solitario improved dramatically from his nursery debut to his second attempt and further progression puts him in the mix in a poor-looking contest. Manara hasn't shown a great deal in her qualifying runs, but they were all at a higher grade and only over 6f, so she could be better than she appears so far.
Flaine won at Southwell last time out, setting the tempo and staying on, so she's a real danger here, despite a 6lb penalty for that win 10 days ago, whilst Cassandraalexandra is the only other previous winner in the race having showed enough pace to win over 6f at Brighton two months ago and she's got the talented Kaiya Fraser in the saddle today. Pace scores from this field's last outing are as follows...
...and based on the limited form and pace datas we have, I'm inclined to take the two runners with a win under their belts ie (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra, whilst also taking a chance on further improvement from (1) Respiro Solitario
7.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...
Kessaar Power, Dashing Donkey and Meng Tian were all runners-up last time out with Kessaar Power winning three races ago beating Meng Tian by 2.5 lengths. United Force won his penultimate outing and Dashing Donkey's last six read 114732. Low draws do well here, which is good for the likes of Heeratthetrack, This Time Maybe, Dashing Donkey and United Force in stalls 1 to 4...
...whilst the pace profiles of Elterwater, Kessaar Power and Dashing Donkey seem ideal for the task ahead...
...the runners without swathes of red on Instant Expert are...
...and if we use these six runners to refer back to the pace draw heat map...
...it has to be (3) Kessaar Power & (4) Dashing Donkey here with one other, who I think might just be (6) Meng Tian, who is decent nick and has made the frame in four of his last five over course and distance including finishing as runner-up 2.5 lengths behind Kessaar Power almost three weeks ago, but he's 5lbs better off here which could give him a great chance of being in the mix yet again.
7.30 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...
Flying Fletcher is two from three, having landed a pair of 6f handicaps at Newcastle by 3.5 lengths and 2.5 lengths more than ten months apart, winning pulling away nine days ago, so if he handles the Poly as well as he does the tapeta, he's got a great chance. Justcallmepete won three starts ago, as did Daytona Lady, who has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last six outings.
Happy Tears has won and placed third in her last two and her last seven read 3325513, so she's pretty consistent and did win over course and distance at the end of August and my form shortlist is completed by Fantasy Master who drops in class after winning at Nottingham last time out and he has two wins and three places from his last nine and it will be interesting to see if he can transfer his good recent form over to the A/W where his record reads 0877, albeit spread over four years!
There's no great pace in the race..
..so we could get a falsely run race which would suit those with the best records under these conditions and if we look at both the win and the place elements of Instant Expert, this is the entire sum of the positive 'green blocks'...
...so I'm on (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears for the finale.
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck! Chris
Please Note The bad news is that I'm away in Europe on business (I run a travel agency aside from my Geegeez duties) from 4am Friday until late Wednesday so my next column will be in a week's time on the 21st November. The good news for you guys is that Matt will be providing you with his Tix Picks in my absence.
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
..with the largest pot offered at Southwell, but I think I'll head for Chelmsford instead where the polytrack has been deemed as standard for our six races that kick off with...
Leg 1 @ 4.35, a 5-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 1m2f...
Devils Advocate started slowly on debut at Newmarket last month, but soon got the hang of things to finish well in third place, some 12 lengths clear of the next horse and he takes a drop in class here. Rogue Diplomat was also third on debut three weeks ago, beaten by less than a length at Beverley after also taking a little while to get going.
Both of these stayed on well and should both appreciate a step up in trip today, as hopefully will Kate O'Riley. She didn't go quite as well as the pair above in a 3.5 length defeat and had to be taken to the start in a red hood, so she probably sits behind the other two in the pecking order with a watching brief advised about newcomers Blue Laced and Navalanche.
Class-dropping (1) Devil's Advocate plus (3) Rogue Diplomat for the opener.
Leg 2 @ 5.10, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...
Early Morning Dew was beaten by four lengths over course and distance last time out, but had finished 212 in his previous three starts. Switchel was a decent third at Southwell over 1m4f, fading late on but now drops back in trip and class. Gone Rogue also drops in class after back to back runner-up finishes at Musselburgh.
Oriental Art has made the frame in three of his last four, Myna has two runner-up finishes from his last five and drops in class and Sun Festival showed ability in the last few months of 2023 finishing 1223 on the All-Weather. He hasn't been the same yet this season after two runs following an eight month break, but a switch back from turf might be the key for him.
Jenson Benson has only won four of his thirty-five career starts, but all four wins have been here at Chelmsford, including one over course and distance with Early Morning Dew and Sun Festival also previous winners at this track/trip and all three look seemingly well suited by expected conditions...
Early pace is often key here at Chelmsford and the top of the pace charts looks like this...
...and with those three all already mentioned earlier on either form or Instant Expert, I'll put all three on my ticket builder. Sun Festival looks a better horse to me than the 28/1 odds might suggest and with bookies paying four places, a small E/W bet might be in order too. I also can't ignore Early Morning Dew from Instant Expert and he has been running well, so I'm taking four here from a big field; (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival
Leg 3 @ 5.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...
H Key Lails was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance on his last start over course and distance, but he was beaten by the re-opposing Bold Suitor that day. Bold Suitor has since raced twice finishing as runner-up over course and distance here over this trip on both occasions and he's actually better offat the weights than H Key Lails, because the latter's jockey now only claims 3lbs instead of the five she did last time, but we're talking small margins here and both remain closely matched and in form.
Charlatan hasn't raced since since finishing as runner-up at Leicester in early July, but his results this year (311130322) have been tremendous and if race-ready could go well again here and he completes the form shortlist, whilst Instant Expert suggests that Drifts Away might also be in the mix...
H Key Lails has the benefit of the low draw, as does Drifts Away, whilst the head of the pace averages looks like this..
All of which points to several horses having a really good chance, but here's where I'm at. I think that (4) Bold Suitor is the best horse in the race right now and if I take him, I have to take (1) H Key Lails as they're so closely matched and then it's any one from three or four and I think that if the lay-off doesn't affect him too much, the (3) Charlatan is the most reliable/consistent option.
Leg 4 @ 6.15, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Only Profitman and Wrath of Hector made the frame last time out and the former is one of two course & distance winners (along with top-weight Yoshimi) in the race. he comes here after being beaten by just a neck over track and trip three weeks ago and this looks a weaker race.
Wrath of Hector won at Yarmouth three starts ago and was a staying-on third over 6f here last time out, so the extra furlong might work in his favour here, whilst from a pace/draw perspective, Zachary looks best off...
...and Chelmsford seems to be where he runs best with two wins and a place from six visits. He'd be an unlikely winner here, of course, having lost sixteen on the bounce but he is 8lbs below his last winning mark and might be better than an 11/1 fifth favourite position would suggest and I think I'll chance my arm with (10) Zachary as a back-up to the form pair of (7) Profitman and (8) Wrath Of Hector
Leg 5 @ 6.45, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...
Twitch was fourth of ten, beaten by just over two lengths over course and distance last time out and had finished 211 in his three previous outings (all over C&D), so may need a small drop back in weight to get winning again and whilst he's in good nick, my initial thoughts were that the bookies have this right, by having three of the top four in the weights (Local Music, Bell Shot & How Impressive) as the market leaders witht he first two on the card both dropping in class.
Local Music is 22414121 in her last eight starts and is 4lbs well in under a penalty after a four length win here over this trip a week ago and should be the one to beat on form. Bell Shot has a win and three runner-up finishes from his last seven races and How Impressive was third at Thirsk in early September before going down by just a head here over 6f last time out. he stayed on well that day, grabbed second late on but just couldn't quite get to the winner. The extra furlong could help here and The Waiting Game (who was third that day, half a length further back) has since won at Kempton.
Instant Expert backs up my thoughts about Local Music and How Impressive, but seems to show Twitch in a better light than Bell Shot...
There's not much between them in terms of pace with Twitch slightly edging it...
...but Bell Shot does have the better draw. I don't think that either of these beat the other two mentioned and I'm sticking with my 'gut feeling' by taking (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive here with Twitch the danger.
Leg 6 @ 7.15, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...
Simiyann certainly didn't look like a 13-race maiden when rompong home by six lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago as a drop in trip and the wearing of a visor seemed to help and I'm not sure a 5lb pemalty stops him making the frame here, but Smokey Malone was a good third over this trip at Southwell last time out and was also third on his last run over this course and distance.
Further down the weights carrying 24lbs and 14lbs less than the above pair is Drouthy Neebor, a six-race maiden who has prgressed the further he has been asked to run. Ineffective over a mile, he was third of seven over 1m2f at Lingfield in early September and backed that up by finishing third of eleven next/last time ut at Kempton and might be worth another look stepped up further in trip.
Buxted Reel races off a mark a pound lower than when the runner-up in this race last year and whilst he's winless in six since, he has finished third over 1m4f at Leicester and third over 1m5f at Bath this summer, so gets the trip and is well weighted. There's no real advantage/disadvantage from the draw (as you'd expect over 1m6f!) nor the pace here and most of them run the same way anyway, which should mean the 'better' horses make the frame, but there's a clear indicator from Instant Expert...
...so I'm on (1) Simiyann, (2) Buxted Reel & (3) Smokey Malone here. I no doubts that Drouthy Neebor will go well over 1m6f at some point, I just hope it's not today.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Devil's Advocate & (3) Rogue Diplomat
Leg 2: (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival
Leg 3: (1) H Key Lails, (3) Charlatan & (4) Bold Suitor
Leg 4: (7) Profitman, (8) Wrath Of Hector & (10) Zachary
Leg 5: (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
...with a couple of huge pots on offer at Newmarket & York. My confidence/ego has taken a bit of a battering of late, so I'm going to avoid those high profile meetings and get back to basics with a trip to Chelmsford, where the going is predictably standard for our six races that begin with...
Leg 1 @ 4.10, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...
Gilet is 2212 in his last four and was narrowly beaten in a Class 4 handicap last time out. He drops in class here and has a stack of stats to suggest he'll go well again today...
Antonin Dvorak was a runner-up over 7f at Musselburgh on debut in late August and then went one better to win over the same track and trip next/last time out in mid-September. He also drops in class and his yard looks in decent nick right now...
I suspect that this race will be between this pair although Master Technician also drops in class after finishing as a runner-up at Bath in mid-September, beaten by three quarters of a length but a neck in front of Tap Dancer who won at Bath yesterday. Oasis Sunrise was a runner-up over today's trip at Chester in mid-June, headed pretty much on the line and a repeat of that effort puts her close again today.
I'm definitely with (1) Gilet and (2) Antonin Dvorak for this one and I think I'll also take (11) Oasis Sunrise, as she offers mor value than Master Technician at current odds.
Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Handicap over 7f...
Joint top-weight Twitch brings the best form to the table, having finished 211 in his last three starts, all over today's course and distance and although this will be a little tougher up in weight again, there's no reason why he shouldn't be in the frame based on his performances since switching to the Polytrack, especially as main rival Lady Wingalong is now a non-runner.
Dumfries is the only other runner in the field to have made the frame last time out, coming home third of eleven over this trip at Wolverhampton in a niggly race a fortnight ago. Elsewhere both Nemorum and the fast-finisher Wilde And Dandy are former course and distance winners. The former won over C&D five starts and almost a year ago and the latter drops in class today and is now 2lbs below his last winning mark.
The 2-year place stats give him and a few others some hope of making the frame today too...
Matt Bisogno often refers to Chelmsford as a bit of a speedway track, where pace is often key to success and yet again Twitch is the one to chase...
...and there's a real danger/possibility that he runs away with this one. (1) Twitch is the one for me here and I'll supplement him with (8) Dumfries after his gutsy run at Wolverhampton last time out with (5) Wilde And Dandy the backup plan.
Leg 3 @ 5.20, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...
On form alone, Baraq sets the standard here. After only finishing 6th of 8 over this course and distance on debut 13 months ago, he has made the frame in 6 of his 7 starts, winning his last two. Red Hat Eagle returns to the A/W and 2 and 4 length defeats on turf to hopefully pick up where left off finishing 31 in his last two A/W efforts over a mile, including a course/distance win here in July. He's A Gentleman finished 102 in his last three, Eagle Day was also an LTO runner-up and both King Of Charm and Berkshire Nugget won their penultimate races.
Several of the horses named above are amongst my 2-year place stats eyecatchers...
Baraq also likes to set the tempo of the race, but he might have company up top today...
...although I suspect Hosanna Power (down in trip and just 1 lb above last winning mark) will prove a bigger threat than the nine-race maiden The Hun here and that early pace might just be enough to propel (5) Hosanna Power into the frame (for a sixth time in seven starts) behind (2) Baraq. Of the others, I think (3) Red Hat Eagle makes most appeal based on his A/W stats above. He's a former course and distance winner and now drops two classes after a decent 5th of 14 in a competitive Class 2 handicap at Ayr, where he was little more than two lengths off the winner and the horse immediately in front of him has since been a Class 3 runner-up.
Leg 4 @ 5.50, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...
Absolutely Buzzing got off the mark at the fifth time of asking when landing a similar Class 6 handicap over this track/trip last time out. She's up 6lbs here, but did win rather cozily that day and the two immediately behind her have made the frame again since. Thomas Equinas has also won over course and distance but his 2024 form (997) is unrecognisable from his last four 2023 results (1101), so something may be amiss there.
Bottom weight Bold Suitor was a winner and then a runner-up in his last two starts, both over course and distance. Thoughtful Gift won two starts ago and both Havana Smoke and Fariha finished third in handicaps last time out. All of these horses show up well on Instant Expert too, giving them all a chance of making the frame with the obvious caveat that whilst Thomas Equinas clearly has ability, it isn't showing right now...
...and I probably should have just omitted him from this list. Havana Smoke and Fariha might not be helped by a high draw although the non-runners here move this pair from stalls 12 & 13 to a slightly nearer 10 & 11 and LTO winner Absolutely Buzzing is now as low as stall 5 which will be helpful. We've no out and out front runner in the field here , but Bold Suitor and Thoughtful Gift raced prominently last time and the former pretty much made all when winning over course and distance two starts ago, so they're probably the pace angle here.
Both are in good form and score well no Instant Expert, so I'll take this pair (1) Thoughtful Gift and (15) Bold Suitor along with LTO winner (5) Absolutely Buzzing.
Leg 5 @ 6.20, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...
A fairly modest looking card for a Class 4 handicap with very few coming here in any semblance of form. Dark Side Thunder was the only one to make the frame last time out, beaten by less than a length at Yarmouth and he does have 7 wins and 2 further places from 16 A/W outings. Myconian was a runner-up three starts ago, Regal Envoy matching that on his penultimate run as did Mojomaker but he has a 406 day lay-off to overcome.
C&D winner Princess Shabnam has plummeted in the weights (107 to 78) after 19 straight losses, but she was a three-quarter length runner-up on her last A/W outing, so she might now be dangerously weighted and if Tan Rapido shows no ill effects from a near six month break, he could well be one to consider. He was admittedly last home of nine in a Class 2 handicap at Sandown last time out, but his other three starts saw him finish 212 and the drop back in class is sure to help.
Instant Expert throws Kodiac Thriller into the mix too...
...whilst our pace/draw heat map also highlights Regal Envoy...
(4) Regal Envoy has been running pretty well of late, he's only 2lbs higher than his last win and scores well on both Instant Expert and Pace/Draw, so he's in. C&D winner (7) Princess Shabnam is likely to be upfront with him, she's dangerously weighted here and showed signs of a recovery on her last A/W run, so she's in too, but I suspect both will play second fiddle to (9) Dark Side Thunder who'll probably tuck in behind them from stall 3 for a late burst. He's in good nick, gets weight all round, scores well on Instant Expert and both his yard & jockey have decent records at this venue.
Leg 6 @ 6.50, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...
Division 2 of the above race looks a stronger affair with both American Bay and Nemov wining over 6f last time out. The former won by 2.5 lengths at Redcar to get off the mark at the ninth time of asking whilst the latter prevailed by a length at Kempton for a first win in his six starts. He has a runner-up finish and a win from two A/W runs (both over 6f at Kempton) in contrast to his form (4844) on the Flat, whilst American Bay's only previous A/W outing saw him finish second of eleven over 7f at Kempton beaten by a neck, so I expect both to go well here today.
Bottom weight Bowman is far more experienced after 48 races and whilst he doesn't win very often, he always seems to be in the mix, having finished 1228332 in his last seven, beaten by less than a length at Wolverhampton last time out. This, however, is tougher up two classes. Spring Bloom has won two of his last four, Balon D'Or won two starts ago and Invincible Speed has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six.
Jimmy Speaking has two wins and a runner-up finish from five and could also be involved here, although I firmly believe that we've two races in one here. The pair of LTO winners are racing for the win with the seven others aiming for that final spot in the frame with Instant Expert suggesting that Jimmy Speaking, Crimson Sand and Invincible Speed the more likely to do so. All three are relatively well drawn, but Crimson Sand hasn't been seen for over six months and might need the run...
...whilst Jimmy Speaking might well be a tad high in the weights. That said, he might well go for it from the off, based on the pace data we hold...
I'm definitely with (5) American Bay and (6) Nemov here, but I now have the conundrum of Jimmy Speaking who might be too high in the weights, Crimson Sand who hasn't raced for some time, Invincible Speed who almost ticks the boxes and Bowman who on the face of form, Instant Expert and pace should be a pick, but is the 40/1 market outsider with Bet365. All things considered, I'm going to err on the side of consistency/caution and take (3) Invincible Speed, but I'm going to have a small E/W bet on Bowman as 40/1 looks too tempting to let pass.
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
*
The biggest pot is at Chelmsford, where the polytrack is standard to slow for our six races which kick off with...
Leg 1 : 5.00 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...
Not a great deal to work with here, but Biniorella Bay has ran creditably in defeat with two fourth place finishes at Group 3 since winning at Newmarket in June. She sets the standard here and with her yard in good form and with a decent record at this venue, she'd be the one to beat for me with the main danger coming from Mythical Bird who finished 3rd of 13 at Kempton last time out.
Neoma has a pair of runner-up finishes to her name, but those races didn't seem as strong as the Kempton race above, whilst the unknown quantity here is the Roger Varian-trained Protest, who might end up being the one most likely to upset the applecart
(1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest
Leg 2 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...
Grand Duchess Olga won relatively comfortably over this trip at Kempton in June and was then third upped in class over the same track/trip next/last time out. She's had a rest since mid-July and now drops back in class and should go well. Pfingstberg had finished 331231 in his six runs this year before a disappointing effort at Beverley (7th of 8) last time out. He, too, has had a break and if returning to his previous good form, has an excellent chance here.
Dereham has been getting closer to winning recently, finishing third in each of his last two starts and only went down by a length and a half at Pontefract a fortnight ago. Easter Icon did win last time out, but that was over hurdles and he hasn't run well on level ground since winning at Wolverhampton over 1m6f back in February. Simiyann and Taxiing are both right out of form at the moment but bottom weight Veer (9lb 3yo weight allowance) was a runner-up in back to back 1m6f handicaps at Southwell and Nottingham in July/August prior to struggling when upped in trip to 2m at Newcastle recently.
And after looking at both Instant Expert and the top of the pace chart...
...I'm going with (1) Pfingstberg and (3) Grand Duchess Olga along with (5) Dereham who looks on the verge of landing a race soon.
Leg 3 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 7f...
Telford won over course and distance on handicap debut last time out, Matharu has finished 212 in his last three starts and has a stack of trainer/jockey stats to support his claims...
The Feminine Urge was a winner two starts ago and Rotation won three back and that's pretty much it from a form perspective, although Brandywine Falls has run better than two fourth places on the bounce might suggest, especially last time out when staying on strongly over 6f at Redcar. The line came too quickly for him that day and the step up to 7f here might be his shot at getting off the mark.
We'd now normally look for speedy types over 7f here at Chelmsford, but with no obvious front-runner in the pack...
...I'll refer back to my notes above and take (8) Matharu and (11) Telford on form with the promise/prospect of more to come from (7) Brandywine Falls over this trip.
Leg 4 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f...
A modest looking contest with only really Dancing Magic looking like he might win a race soon, even if he is a 16-race maiden. He was a runner-up at Chester four starts ago and again here over a mile last time out, beaten by just a length and a quarter and that run sets the standard here, I feel. He was only headed inside the final furlong by the 92-rated 4/11 fav and the drop in trip should help here.
Next best is probably/possibly Stanage who has made the frame three times from his five starts, but could only finish 6th of 10 on his A/W debut last time out. That said, he has been rated at 81 by the assessors, so they might have seen something in him and he'll wear blinkers for the first time today.
As for a third pick here, the field seems much of a muchness, but the market seems to suggest the filly Jumeirah Sea might be the one to pose the biggest threat. She improved upon her debut effort when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Kempton four weeks ago and a drop in both trip and class could see her get closer today.
Leg 5 : 7.00 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
On form, you have to start with the three LTO winners; Pinball Wizard scored over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago and is 3 from 4 on standard to slow polytrack. Nammos won here over course and distance a month ago on her second yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam and Desert Dream comes here seeking a hat-trick after two wins over today's trip at Catterick. He might well be 10yrs old now, but he has been in the first three home in four of his last five.
I did, however, have doubts about all three here from a pace perspective as none tend to race from the front, which is often the key to success over shorter trips here at Chelmsford, but closer inspection of the whole field suggests a falsely run race anyway, which would suit horses who don't tend to lead...
Guiteau, Super Hit and Solara might well make a break for it early on, but none of them are running particularly well right now and I suspect they'd be reined it and beaten as they have in their recent outings, so I'm sticking with the form guide and taking (2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos and (12) Desert Dream here.
Leg 6 : 7.30 Chelmsford, a 16-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ selling handicap over 1m2f...
Clear Justice looks the pick on seasonal form, having won twice at Brighton over 1m and 1m2f in June/July and was only beaten by a head there over 1m2f last time out, some 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse. Milvus would be of interest if turned back out just two days after racing at Bath, where the heavy ground didn't seem to suit him. Prior to that run, he had finished third in back to back races at Windsor over 1m and 1m2f on quicker ground and he also finished third on his last standard to slow polytrack run.
The Instant Expert picture looks pretty bleak, but does throw Semser's name into the ring...
...whilst the likes of Hurtle & Juan Cool Dude enter the equation based on their low draw and early pace...
Sadly neither of that pair are in great form, although Hurtle was a runner-up three starts ago, but I'm going to overlook him and take (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice and also (12) Milvus, who might well contest the lead here.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest
Leg 2: (1) Pfingstberg, (3) Grand Duchess Olga & (5) Dereham
Leg 3: (7) Brandywine Falls, (8) Matharu & (11) Telford
Leg 5:(2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos & (12) Desert Dream
Leg 6: (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice & (12) Milvus
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck, as always, Chris
PS A reminder that I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after this piece, I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October. Some of you might be glad of the break!
So we’re to brace ourselves for another retrenchment in the battle against Covid by all accounts? Having voluntarily hidden away for five months apart from the once weekly drive to Tesco, sitting in the car while the shopping was effected by the household’s responsible adult, and some less than regular walks around one of the two massive local parks, I don’t feel minded to go back into that oblivion any time soon, writes Tony Stafford.
By my calculations at the very least I’ve missed a conservative 100 trips to the races and, at Chelmsford alone, at least 30 bowls of soup. Where some things are concerned I just can’t help myself. And they do serve up the most wonderful soup (and chicken goujons and chips) in the owners’ room. Okay, the racing goes on everywhere but where you’re looking, but I love it – as far as I can remember!
I’m pleased to learn that the wonderful Linda is still looking after either the owners or is it the trainers at Newmarket? She never sees this, so how can I tell her how much I miss her. Not everyone it seems is happy that as much is being done to thank the owners for their continuing stoical support in face of reducing prize money and a feeling that the entire race programme in Europe is morphing into a homogenous mass.
Last weekend it was the Arc; then it was the Dewhurst and Cesarewitch and next week it’s British Champions Day at Ascot. The week after that the clocks go back and it’s ten minutes to Christmas. You might disagree but I can tell you I was at Cheltenham for the entire four days and nights and that only seems about six weeks ago so quickly has Covid time progressed.
The three O’Brien stables, father and two sons, had the hammer blow of the French testing of their Gain feed which led to the voluntary withdrawal of their Parislongchamp runners over Arc weekend but the levels were clearly back on track in time for Newmarket. There, the number cloths were transposed for Aidan’s two runners in the bet365 Fillies’ Mile on Friday to cause another stir. Snowfall (50-1) and Mother Earth (18-1) actually finished third and eighth rather than the reverse that everyone believed had happened.
Busy at the time of the race – amazing what you find to do when the alternative is coming over and having to quarantine afterwards! – as soon as Aidan O’Brien saw the race recording he spotted the error. Unfortunately the team based in Newmarket, managing the Ballydoyle UK runners in these oddest of times, was not quite as firmly on the ball.
Part of the confusion, for the viewing public anyway, could have been that both were outsiders and ran in Derrick Smith’s purple colours. So too did the Coolmore partners’ third and most eagerly-anticipated contender, the 7-2 shot Shale who was renewing an on-going rivalry with the favourite, Pretty Gorgeous. The talented pair had met three times previously, with the verdict 2-1 in favour of Shale as they filled the first two places each time, including most recently in the Moyglare at the Curragh last month when Shale, trained by Donnacha, beat Pretty Gorgeous, from Joseph’s stable, by almost a length.
Shale could do no better than sixth here, adding to Donnacha’s frustration just days after the rookie trainer’s stable star Fancy Blue retired to stud following her inevitable withdrawal from her planned Arc weekend target.
Joseph, already with Friday’s fillies’ Group 1 in his locker, would have been excused for thinking the Dewhurst Stakes might be coming his way too. In the National Stakes last month at The Curragh, the previously once-raced Thunder Moon overcame his inexperience when bursting through to beat the Ballydoyle pair of Wembley and St Mark’s Basilica by a length and a half and a short head.
On Saturday, Declan McDonagh soon had Thunder Moon in a more prominent position. Instead of that being the launch-pad for a replica winning spurt up the hill, less than expected materialised. Rather it was dad’s re-opposing duo, St Mark’s Basilica, ridden by Frankie Dettori, crossing the line more comfortably ahead of Wembley, who again finished well into second, this time under Ryan Moore, who had ridden Saturday’s winner in Ireland. The result in other words was a 1-2-3 exact reverse of Ireland’s main juvenile race and Aidan O’Brien’s seventh Dewhurst.
It was tempting for bookmakers to put St Mark’s Basilica, a $1.3million yearling by Siyouni from the Galileo mare Cabaret, at the head of the betting for next year’s 2,000 Guineas after this as he is half-brother to Magna Grecia, (by Invincible Spirit) who won the Classic two years ago. If you prefer to stay with the authentic Guineas-winning formula rather than make do with the broodmare sire, you can always hope that Wembley can turn the form around over another furlong. He’s certainly strong at seven. Battleground (by War Front), another stable-companion and a Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood winner, is also an early 8-1 shot.
When you work every day in close proximity to such giants of any business as Coolmore, Juddmonte or Godolphin, there must be deep down a latent wish or belief that some of the magic dust might percolate on to you. Over the years many of Coolmore’s senior staff have dabbled, or in truth much more than dabbled, in breeding and bloodstock. Always, it seems, they do so with John Magnier’s full support and encouragement.
On Saturday at HQ, when the big cats had done their day’s work finishing 1-2 in yet another Group 1 championship-defining race and metaphorically vacated the scene, some of the “Coolmore mice” were allowed to come out to play. Not that the Group 3 Darley Stakes which ended the two-day meeting was an insignificant affair.
On a day when the only winning favourite came in the 34-runner Cesarewitch with Willie Mullins’ hat-trick-completing Great White Shark, events concluded with a 28-1 success (some people got 40’s!) for a Fozzy Stack-trained four-year-old filly ridden by Jamie Spencer.
It will not be a shock to learn, if you didn’t see the race, that the Co Tipperary Spice Girls who own the filly – and who also raced the filly’s mother, similarly a Group 3 winner before her - had to wait until the last 100 yards for Spencer to put them out of their misery and go into the eventually comfortable winning lead.
I’m sure that the smaller than usual contingent over for the yearling sales at Tatts, but still witness to two massive multi-million buys in M V Magnier’s name last week, would have stayed behind to cheer as the racecard – if there was one – puts it, Mrs Tom Gaffney and Mrs Barbara <wife of Clem> Murphy.
Attempts, admittedly after sensible people will have been long tucked up in bed, even the afore-mentioned no doubt still-celebrating Mr Tom and Mr Clem, initially failed to elucidate Mrs G’s first name, but the wonderful Wendy Normile called just in time to remind me it was Marie. Their filly is called Lady Wannabe, a daughter of Camelot, the nearest we’ve had to a Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970, out of Wannabe Better, who was a half-sister to the even more talented Wannabe Grand.
Both fillies were daughters of the 1990 foal, Wannabe, coincidentally who arrived on this earth seven years before the song of that name which launched the Spice Girls’ careers. So it’s a stretch, but that’s what I’m calling them. I know that with Camelot doing so well in his early years as a stallion and the blue chip female family, even if their two husbands cannot continue to keep the two Tipperary girls in the style in which they are in danger of becoming accustomed, Lady Wannabe will!
As for next Saturday, this morning the entries for Ascot, where soft ground is expected, will be eagerly awaited. Magical, in whichever race she targets, must be a prime candidate for another win having dethroned Ghaiyyath last time, but I’ll be looking for The Revenant, so smooth on his delayed comeback in Paris a week ago to perform a minor giant-killing against Palace Pier in the Mile race. Fresh is best at this time of the year and no horse will be fresher than the French five-year-old. In the Balmoral Handicap it is hard to look beyond the Brian Meehan-trained recent course winner Raaeq. He’s 5lb well in despite his penalty and he seemed to love soft ground on the track last time out.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/chelmsfordracecourse.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-10-12 07:14:292020-10-12 07:14:29Monday Musings: How much soup have you missed?
In my most recent article, we looked at pace bias in 5f handicaps on the all weather, and as promised here is a follow-up looking at the 6f trip, writes Dave Renham.
For regular readers I appreciate the next few lines in some form or other seem to appear in all my pace articles, but for the benefit of new readers I need to clarify the following: when discussing pace the main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. At www.geegeez.co.uk there is a pace tab within the racecards for each race, and the stats in this article are based on the site’s pace data. These pace data on Geegeez are split into four sections each of which are assigned points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). For all my articles I concentrate on the numerical values to create a plethora of hopefully useful stats.
The minimum distance of five furlongs gives the strongest pace bias on the flat as previous articles have illustrated. However, there is still a bias to pace horses/front runners over an extra furlong, which I will demonstrate in what follows.
The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall pace perspective for 6f all weather handicaps with six or more runners (the data for this article has been taken from the last 5 years 2014 to 2018):
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
325
1812
17.9
1.75
Prominent (3)
523
4448
11.8
1.15
Mid Division (2)
155
2003
7.7
0.79
Held Up (1)
357
4886
7.3
0.72
These stats give front runners a solid edge – it is not as strong as over 5f but it is still significant. Just for comparison purposes let us look at the strike rates (SR%) and Impact Values (IVs) for 6f and for 5f:
Pace comment
6f
5f
6f
5f
SR%
SR%
IV
IV
Led (4)
17.9
22.3
1.75
2.04
Prominent (3)
11.8
12.5
1.15
1.15
Mid Division (2)
7.7
6.5
0.79
0.62
Held Up (1)
7.3
6.7
0.72
0.61
Over 6f front runners are still winning 1.75 times more often than average so we still have a decent starting point.
The main data for this article covers all-weather six-furlong handicaps with 6 or more runners. I then split the data into different field sizes – 6 to 8 runners; 9 – 10 runners; 11 or more runners. I did this ‘runner split’ for the 5f all-weather data in the previous article, and over that trip bigger fields produced the strongest front-running bias. As it turns out, this is replicated over 6f too:
6 to 8 runners
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
536
104
19.4
1.41
Prominent (3)
1093
167
15.28
1.11
Mid Division (2)
304
27
8.88
0.66
Held Up (1)
988
107
10.83
0.79
9 to 10 runners
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
548
100
18.25
1.73
Prominent (3)
1351
163
12.07
1.15
Mid Division (2)
549
43
7.83
0.74
Held Up (1)
1477
113
7.65
0.73
11 or more runners
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
728
121
16.62
1.98
Prominent (3)
2004
193
9.63
1.14
Mid Division (2)
1150
85
7.39
0.88
Held Up (1)
2421
137
5.66
0.67
The IV for front runners increases as the number of runners increases. This is somewhat counter-intuitive and is therefore worth bearing in mind.
The article that discussed 5f all weather sprints looked at each course and distance individually. Once again this is the plan here, as different courses have different layouts, and also there are differences between certain track surfaces too. Let's start with Chelmsford and work through alphabetically.
Chelmsford
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
58
278
20.9
1.97
Prominent (3)
71
562
12.6
1.19
Mid Division (2)
31
422
7.3
0.71
Held Up (1)
44
671
6.6
0.62
Just over a fifth of the 6f handicap races (SR 20.9%) at Chelmsford have seen the early leader going on to win. This compares with a strike rate of 26.3% over 5f: not quite as strong but with an IV close to 2 the front-running bias is still clear.
It has already been noted that in bigger fields at all of the all-weather courses the front-running bias seems to be more evident. This is certainly the case here: in races of 11 runners or more at Chelmsford, the front runner has prevailed an impressive 21 times from 87 giving a strike rate of 24.1% and an Impact Value of 2.93.
The draw seems to be material here, too, with those horses drawn nearest to the inside rail performing best when taking the early lead (all 6+ runner races). That makes sense as they will be taking advantage of the shortest route. Horses that have led early from one of the three lowest draws in these big field Chelmsford 6f handicaps have won 25% of their races with an Impact Value of 2.28.
Kempton
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
72
388
18.6
1.85
Prominent (3)
107
938
11.4
1.14
Mid Division (2)
41
542
7.6
0.78
Held Up (1)
84
1123
7.5
0.75
The 6f trip at Kempton has a decent number of races each year giving punters plenty of opportunities to get involved. Front runners have a clear edge here and, as with Chelmsford, field size accentuates this.
In 6f handicaps of 11 or 12 runners (12 is the maximum at Kempton), front runners have secured 39 wins from 176 runners (SR 22.2%) with a very high Impact Value of 2.53. However, the draw data suggest there is no clear advantage to front runners drawn near to the inside rail (low).
Lingfield
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
68
297
22.9
2.07
Prominent (3)
76
590
12.9
1.16
Mid Division (2)
32
380
8.4
0.79
Held Up (1)
50
745
6.7
0.61
The statistics for Lingfield seem to suggest front runners there have the biggest edge compared with the other five UK all-weather courses. Any front runner here that is well fancied has done extremely well: horses that were either favourite or second favourite and led early over 6f here went on to win 39 times out of 80 runners equating to a win rate of nearly 50%.
Newcastle
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
23
143
16.1
1.74
Prominent (3)
34
394
8.6
0.94
Mid Division (2)
17
197
8.6
0.97
Held Up (1)
40
485
8.2
0.89
Coincidentally, the front running IV over 5f at Newcastle is also 1.74. Front runners do have an edge here but it is not a course I personally get heavily involved with, as the straight track for all distances up to a mile makes it a unique test of an all-weather horse in Britain. That greater emphasis on stamina produces the reverse to Kempton and Chelmsford, with front runners struggling in bigger fields.
Southwell
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
33
166
19.9
1.85
Prominent (3)
102
690
14.8
1.38
Mid Division (2)
7
124
5.6
0.57
Held Up (1)
17
491
3.5
0.32
A reasonable IV of 1.85 for front runners, but it is also worth noting that horses which come from midfield or off the pace really struggle here just like they do over 5f. One other area worth sharing with you is when a front runner also happens to be in the top 5 of the Geegeez speed ratings, it has won on 22 of 79 occasions (SR 27.9%) producing an IV of 2.50.
Wolverhampton
Pace comment
Wins
Runners
SR%
IV
Led (4)
71
540
13.1
1.33
Prominent (3)
133
1274
10.4
1.06
Mid Division (2)
27
338
8.0
0.87
Held Up (1)
122
1371
8.9
0.9
Comfortably the poorest stats for front runners are at Wolverhampton, where there is a very small edge only and little to write home about. Indeed, pace seems to be far more balanced across the run styles at Wolves than at any of the other tracks.
*
Before I finish, in other articles I have used the various figures to create course and distance pace averages. I do this by adding up the pace scores of all the winners at each course and dividing it by the total number of races. The higher the average score, the more ‘biased’ the course and distance is to horses that lead early or race close to the pace.
Here are the 6 furlong handicap C&D pace averages for the six aw courses:
Taking all the data into account, six furlong handicaps on the all weather do offer ‘pace’ punters a potential edge. It is, unsurprisingly perhaps, not as strong as over five furlongs, but still strong enough to give clued in bettors a good leg up on the opposition. All we need now is to find a fail-safe method to predict the front runner...
- Dave Renham
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/sodslaw.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2019-02-20 10:21:432019-04-23 08:10:02Pace Wins The Race: 6f All Weather Handicaps
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