Tag Archive for: Chelmsford

Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases

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A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.

Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.

Introduction

Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable. 

The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.

The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

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Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases

It is time to start the countdown:

10. Kempton 7f

Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.

Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:

 

 

An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.

 

9. Lingfield 6f

Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:


 

Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.

At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.

 

8. Chelmsford 1m

This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs): 

 

 

As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.

 

7. Kempton 6f

Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.

 


 

Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.

 

6. Chelmsford 6f

The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 

 

These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.

Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.

 

5. Wolverhampton 5f

The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:

 


 

This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:

 

 

Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.

In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.

 

4. Chelmsford 7f

The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:

 


 

Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.

It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:

 


 

Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:

 

 

 

Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:

 

 

The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.

 

3. Southwell 5f

This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:

 


 

A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:

 


 

The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.

It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!

 

2. Chelmsford 5f

The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 


 

The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.

In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.

 

1. Lingfield 5f

Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:

 


 

If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.

Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:

 

 

 

Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.

 

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Conclusion

The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.

Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.

As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.

For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.

Until next time...

- DR

 

Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez

In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.

And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.

- Matt



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Tix Picks, Thursday 14/11/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Market Rasen, Sedgefield & Taunton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The money is good on the Essex Speedway so let's head for the polytrack for six races beginning with...

5.00 Chelmsford, a 15-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies maiden over 7f...

Six of the fifteen have yet to race and are therefore unknown quantities, so in races like this if I'm having three picks, I tend to take two with experience and one debutant and of those with a run under their belts Magic Glow, Mrs Dowley and Sheephavensbay set the benchmark.

Magic Glow was a 1.5 length runner-up on debut at Wolverhampton in September, but never really got involved back there next/last time out a fortnight later, but if running like she did first time out that might be enough here. Mrs Dowley was third of twelve on her sole start to date, finishing strongly at Wolverhampton over 6f just three days ago and she might well relish the extra furlong, whilst Sheephavensbay produced her best effort to date last time out when beaten by less than a length over 7f at Wolverhampton (3rd of 11) last time out.

Low draws work well here over 7f and the trio above are in stalls 3, 4 and 15, but despite a poor draw, Sheephavensbay has that Chelmsford non-negotiable early pace...

Of the newcomers Antalya, Casual Encounter and Queen Sansa appeal more than the other three. Antalya is by Time Test and is half-sister to 5f winner Istanbul and 6f winners Darwina and Soulofchess. The dam Anadolu won over 5f too, so there's plenty of pace in her breeding.

Casual Encounter is by Passing Glance and is a half-sister to 1m3½f winner City Spirit. She's out of Cape Spirit whose own best efforts came at 1m3f to 1m6f, so this one might well need further in time. Queen Sansa is by dual Group 1, 1m2f winner Almanzor out of New Jazz who was a winner over a mile and made the frame in 5 of 7 starts at 7f to 1m1f.

Casual Encounter has the best of the draw in stall 6 of this trio, but I think I'll take (2) Antalya from the debutants along with (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley in this tricky opener.

5.30 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 7f...

Needlepoint sets the standard on form, having won a 5.5f maiden at Chantilly on her sole outing, but much will depend on her fitness after 17 months off. Of those with a more recent run, Space Trooper has finished 332 so far and was 3rd of 7 over 1m here on debut two months ago and most lately a 1.5 length runner-up over 7f at Newcastle, whilst bottom weight Anamika was also a runner-up last time out going down by just half a length here at Chelmsford over a mile. And having made most that day and caught late on, the drop back to 7f might help.

Safety first, I'll take all three; (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika due to concerns about the top weight's fitness.

6.00 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Riot is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ran a decent race at Wolverhampton last time out. Ultramarine has made the frame in seven of his last eight over the past three months.

Extrication was a three length runner up here over course and distance four weeks ago, whilst Arctic Dawn is 223 in his last three, finishing as runner-up beaten by half a length and a length on his two A/W starts and former course & distance winner Airshow completes my shortlist having been in the frame in five of his last six and he's one of the more likely front runners from my shortlist...

...and whilst he's be an unlikely winner off his current mark, he's consistent and could well make the frame again at a big price, but I'd expect him to play second fiddle to the equally consistent Ultramarine and Arctic Dawn, so lets take those three from this one.

6.30 Chelmsford, a 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Respiro Solitario improved dramatically from his nursery debut to his second attempt and further progression puts him in the mix in a poor-looking contest. Manara hasn't shown a great deal in her qualifying runs, but they were all at a higher grade and only over 6f, so she could be better than she appears so far.

Flaine won at Southwell last time out, setting the tempo and staying on, so she's a real danger here, despite a 6lb penalty for that win 10 days ago, whilst Cassandraalexandra is the only other previous winner in the race having showed enough pace to win over 6f at Brighton two months ago and she's got the talented Kaiya Fraser in the saddle today. Pace scores from this field's last outing are as follows...

...and based on the limited form and pace datas we have, I'm inclined to take the two runners with a win under their belts ie (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra, whilst also taking a chance on further improvement from (1) Respiro Solitario

7.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kessaar Power, Dashing Donkey and Meng Tian were all runners-up last time out with Kessaar Power winning three races ago beating Meng Tian by 2.5 lengths. United Force won his penultimate outing and Dashing Donkey's last six read 114732. Low draws do well here, which is good for the likes of Heeratthetrack, This Time Maybe, Dashing Donkey and United Force in stalls 1 to 4...

...whilst the pace profiles of Elterwater, Kessaar Power and Dashing Donkey seem ideal for the task ahead...

...the runners without swathes of red on Instant Expert are...

...and if we use these six runners to refer back to the pace draw heat map...

...it has to be (3) Kessaar Power & (4) Dashing Donkey here with one other, who I think might just be (6) Meng Tian, who is decent nick and has made the frame in four of his last five over course and distance including finishing as runner-up 2.5 lengths behind Kessaar Power almost three weeks ago, but he's 5lbs better off here which could give him a great chance of being in the mix yet again.

7.30 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Flying Fletcher is two from three, having landed a pair of 6f handicaps at Newcastle by 3.5 lengths and 2.5 lengths more than ten months apart, winning pulling away nine days ago, so if he handles the Poly as well as he does the tapeta, he's got a great chance. Justcallmepete won three starts ago, as did Daytona Lady, who has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last six outings.

Happy Tears has won and placed third in her last two and her last seven read 3325513, so she's pretty consistent and did win over course and distance at the end of August and my form shortlist is completed by Fantasy Master who drops in class after winning at Nottingham last time out and he has two wins and three places from his last nine and it will be interesting to see if he can transfer his good recent form over to the A/W where his record reads 0877, albeit spread over four years!

There's no great pace in the race..

..so we could get a falsely run race which would suit those with the best records under these conditions and if we look at both the win and the place elements of Instant Expert, this is the entire sum of the positive 'green blocks'...

...so I'm on (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Antalya, (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley

Leg 2: (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika

Leg 3: (6) Ultramarine, (8) Arctic Dawn & (10) Airshow at the expense of Riot.

Leg 4: (1) Respiro Solitario, (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra

Leg 5: (3) Kessaar Power, (4) Dashing Donkey & (6) Meng Tian

Leg 6: (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Please Note The bad news is that I'm away in Europe on business (I run a travel agency aside from my Geegeez duties) from 4am Friday until late Wednesday so my next column will be in a week's time on the 21st November. The good news for you guys is that Matt will be providing you with his Tix Picks in my absence.



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Stalls drama in Chelmsford finale

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There was a dramatic conclusion to Saturday’s evening card at Chelmsford, with the final race voided after the tractor was unable to remove the starting stalls from the track.

Nine runners went to post in the closing Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap over 10 furlongs and as the field turned into the home straight, the stalls were still in the middle of the track.

The jockeys involved acted quickly, spotting the warning flag on the bend with all managing to pull up their horses before reaching the stationary block of stalls.

Alistair Rawlinson was aboard Penzance and he felt all riders involved deserved plenty of credit for safely pulling up and avoiding any accidents.

He told Racing TV: “We were sat second so were one of the first to arrive on the scene, it could have been a disaster. The lads have shown a lot of horsemanship to stop in a short period of time when we’re just about to hit top gear.

“We’ve turned in with near enough two (furlongs) to go, Jonny Peate (on Salamanca) was on my inside and he was rowing away, I was filling my lad up and I saw the starter, who had ran from the stalls, because there’s been a problem, into the middle of the track. I saw the flag, looked up and the stalls were still there and let out a yell.

“We did miraculously well to stop because there were some keen horses in there and we didn’t go overly fast, so to stop that quick, the lads deserve a pat on the back.

“Something should have happened a lot earlier to stop that from happening, but we will obviously speak about that to the stewards and go from there.”

Marco Ghiani, who rode Felix in what was the highest class race on the card, added: “They are much better horses, it was the top race of the day, so they definitely go faster than the rest.

“We should have had more of a warning – in my opinion there should be a flag man in each corner of the track. If we were halfway down the back straight, we would have known and stopped more safely.”

The stewards examined the incident and their report said: “An inquiry was held into the stop flag being deployed in the closing stages of this race, as the stalls were unable to be removed from the course.

“Attending the inquiry was the director of racing, the clerk of the course and trainee clerk of the course, both starters, jockeys Billy Loughnane and Harry Davies, the stalls team leader and the tractor driver.

“As all the runners had pulled up and the judge was unable to declare a result, the race was declared void and a report was forwarded to the head office of the British Horseracing Authority.”



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Tix Picks, Thursday 17/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Southwell & Wincanton

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

..with the largest pot offered at Southwell, but I think I'll head for Chelmsford instead where the polytrack has been deemed as standard for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.35, a 5-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 1m2f...

Devils Advocate started slowly on debut at Newmarket last month, but soon got the hang of things to finish well in third place, some 12 lengths clear of the next horse and he takes a drop in class here. Rogue Diplomat was also third on debut three weeks ago, beaten by less than a length at Beverley after also taking a little while to get going.

Both of these stayed on well and should both appreciate a step up in trip today, as hopefully will Kate O'Riley. She didn't go quite as well as the pair above in a 3.5 length defeat and had to be taken to the start in a red hood, so she probably sits behind the other two in the pecking order with a watching brief advised about newcomers Blue Laced and Navalanche.

Class-dropping (1) Devil's Advocate plus (3) Rogue Diplomat for the opener.

Leg 2 @ 5.10, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Early Morning Dew was beaten by four lengths over course and distance last time out, but had finished 212 in his previous three starts. Switchel was a decent third at Southwell over 1m4f, fading late on but now drops back in trip and class. Gone Rogue also drops in class after back to back runner-up finishes at Musselburgh.

Oriental Art has made the frame in three of his last four, Myna has two runner-up finishes from his last five and drops in class and Sun Festival showed ability in the last few months of 2023 finishing 1223 on the All-Weather. He hasn't been the same yet this season after two runs following an eight month break, but a switch back from turf might be the key for him.

Jenson Benson has only won four of his thirty-five career starts, but all four wins have been here at Chelmsford, including one over course and distance with Early Morning Dew and Sun Festival also previous winners at this track/trip and all three look seemingly well suited by expected conditions...

Early pace is often key here at Chelmsford and the top of the pace charts looks like this...

...and with those three all already mentioned earlier on either form or Instant Expert, I'll put all three on my ticket builder. Sun Festival looks a better horse to me than the 28/1 odds might suggest and with bookies paying four places, a small E/W bet might be in order too. I also can't ignore Early Morning Dew from Instant Expert and he has been running well, so I'm taking four here from a big field; (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival

Leg 3 @ 5.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

H Key Lails was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance on his last start over course and distance, but he was beaten by the re-opposing Bold Suitor that day. Bold Suitor has since raced twice finishing as runner-up over course and distance here over this trip on both occasions and he's actually better offat the weights than H Key Lails, because the latter's jockey now only claims 3lbs instead of the five she did last time, but we're talking small margins here and both remain closely matched and in form.

Charlatan hasn't raced since since finishing as runner-up at Leicester in early July, but his results this year (311130322) have been tremendous and if race-ready could go well again here and he completes the form shortlist, whilst Instant Expert suggests that Drifts Away might also be in the mix...

H Key Lails has the benefit of the low draw, as does Drifts Away, whilst the head of the pace averages looks like this..

All of which points to several horses having a really good chance, but here's where I'm at. I think that (4) Bold Suitor is the best horse in the race right now and if I take him, I have to take (1) H Key Lails as they're so closely matched and then it's any one from three or four and I think that if the lay-off doesn't affect him too much, the (3) Charlatan is the most reliable/consistent option.

Leg 4 @ 6.15, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Only Profitman and Wrath of Hector made the frame last time out and the former is one of two course & distance winners (along with top-weight Yoshimi) in the race. he comes here after being beaten by just a neck over track and trip three weeks ago and this looks a weaker race.

Wrath of Hector won at Yarmouth three starts ago and was a staying-on third over 6f here last time out, so the extra furlong might work in his favour here, whilst from a pace/draw perspective, Zachary looks best off...

...and Chelmsford seems to be where he runs best with two wins and a place from six visits. He'd be an unlikely winner here, of course, having lost sixteen on the bounce but he is 8lbs below his last winning mark and might be better than an 11/1 fifth favourite position would suggest and I think I'll chance my arm with (10) Zachary as a back-up to the form pair of (7) Profitman and (8) Wrath Of Hector

Leg 5 @ 6.45, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

Twitch was fourth of ten, beaten by just over two lengths over course and distance last time out and had finished 211 in his three previous outings (all over C&D), so may need a small drop back in weight to get winning again and whilst he's in good nick, my initial thoughts were that the bookies have this right, by having three of the top four in the weights (Local Music, Bell Shot & How Impressive) as the market leaders witht he first two on the card both dropping in class.

Local Music is 22414121 in her last eight starts and is 4lbs well in under a penalty after a four length win here over this trip a week ago and should be the one to beat on form. Bell Shot has a win and three runner-up finishes from his last seven races and How Impressive was third at Thirsk in early September before going down by just a head here over 6f last time out. he stayed on well that day, grabbed second late on but just couldn't quite get to the winner. The extra furlong could help here and The Waiting Game (who was third that day, half a length further back) has since won at Kempton.

Instant Expert backs up my thoughts about Local Music and How Impressive, but seems to show Twitch in a better light than Bell Shot...

There's not much between them in terms of pace with Twitch slightly edging it...

...but Bell Shot does have the better draw. I don't think that either of these beat the other two mentioned and I'm sticking with my 'gut feeling' by taking (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive here with Twitch the danger.

Leg 6 @ 7.15, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Simiyann certainly didn't look like a 13-race maiden when rompong home by six lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago as a drop in trip and the wearing of a visor seemed to help and I'm not sure a 5lb pemalty stops him making the frame here, but Smokey Malone was a good third over this trip at Southwell last time out and was also third on his last run over this course and distance.

Further down the weights carrying 24lbs and 14lbs less than the above pair is Drouthy Neebor, a six-race maiden who has prgressed the further he has been asked to run. Ineffective over a mile, he was third of seven over 1m2f at Lingfield in early September and backed that up by finishing third of eleven next/last time ut at Kempton and might be worth another look stepped up further in trip.

Buxted Reel races off a mark a pound lower than when the runner-up in this race last year and whilst he's winless in six since, he has finished third over 1m4f at Leicester and third over 1m5f at Bath this summer, so gets the trip and is well weighted. There's no real advantage/disadvantage from the draw (as you'd expect over 1m6f!) nor the pace here and most of them run the same way anyway, which should mean the 'better' horses make the frame, but there's a clear indicator from Instant Expert...

...so I'm on (1) Simiyann, (2) Buxted Reel & (3) Smokey Malone here. I no doubts that Drouthy Neebor will go well over 1m6f at some point, I just hope it's not today.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Devil's Advocate & (3) Rogue Diplomat

Leg 2: (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival

Leg 3: (1) H Key Lails, (3) Charlatan & (4) Bold Suitor

Leg 4: (7) Profitman, (8) Wrath Of Hector & (10) Zachary

Leg 5: (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive

Leg 6: (1) Simiyann, (2) Buxted Reel & (3) Smokey Malone

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck!
Chris



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Tix Picks, Saturday 12/10/24

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Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Chepstow, Hexham, Newmarket & York.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with a couple of huge pots on offer at Newmarket & York. My confidence/ego has taken a bit of a battering of late, so I'm going to avoid those high profile meetings and get back to basics with a trip to Chelmsford, where the going is predictably standard for our six races that begin with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...

Gilet is 2212 in his last four and was narrowly beaten in a Class 4 handicap last time out. He drops in class here and has a stack of stats to suggest he'll go well again today...

Antonin Dvorak was a runner-up over 7f at Musselburgh on debut in late August and then went one better to win over the same track and trip next/last time out in mid-September. He also drops in class and his yard looks in decent nick right now...

I suspect that this race will be between this pair although Master Technician also drops in class after finishing as a runner-up at Bath in mid-September, beaten by three quarters of a length but a neck in front of Tap Dancer who won at Bath yesterday. Oasis Sunrise was a runner-up over today's trip at Chester in mid-June, headed pretty much on the line and a repeat of that effort puts her close again today.

I'm definitely with (1) Gilet and (2) Antonin Dvorak for this one and I think I'll also take (11) Oasis Sunrise, as she offers mor value than Master Technician at current odds.

Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Handicap over 7f...

Joint top-weight Twitch brings the best form to the table, having finished 211 in his last three starts, all over today's course and distance and although this will be a little tougher up in weight again, there's no reason why he shouldn't be in the frame based on his performances since switching to the Polytrack, especially as main rival Lady Wingalong is now a non-runner.

Dumfries is the only other runner in the field to have made the frame last time out, coming home third of eleven over this trip at Wolverhampton in a niggly race a fortnight ago. Elsewhere both Nemorum and the fast-finisher Wilde And Dandy are former course and distance winners. The former won over C&D five starts and almost a year ago and the latter drops in class today and is now 2lbs below his last winning mark.

The 2-year place stats give him and a few others some hope of making the frame today too...

Matt Bisogno often refers to Chelmsford as a bit of a speedway track, where pace is often key to success and yet again Twitch is the one to chase...

...and there's a real danger/possibility that he runs away with this one. (1) Twitch is the one for me here and I'll supplement him with (8) Dumfries after his gutsy run at Wolverhampton last time out with (5) Wilde And Dandy the backup plan.

Leg 3 @ 5.20, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

On form alone, Baraq sets the standard here. After only finishing 6th of 8 over this course and distance on debut 13 months ago, he has made the frame in 6 of his 7 starts, winning his last two. Red Hat Eagle returns to the A/W and 2 and 4 length defeats on turf to hopefully pick up where left off finishing 31 in his last two A/W efforts over a mile, including a course/distance win here in July. He's A Gentleman finished 102 in his last three, Eagle Day was also an LTO runner-up and both King Of Charm and Berkshire Nugget won their penultimate races.

Several of the horses named above are amongst my 2-year place stats eyecatchers...

Baraq also likes to set the tempo of the race, but he might have company up top today...

...although I suspect Hosanna Power (down in trip and just 1 lb above last winning mark) will prove a bigger threat than the nine-race maiden The Hun here and that early pace might just be enough to propel (5) Hosanna Power into the frame (for a sixth time in seven starts) behind (2) Baraq. Of the others, I think (3) Red Hat Eagle makes most appeal based on his A/W stats above. He's a former course and distance winner and now drops two classes after a decent 5th of 14 in a competitive Class 2 handicap at Ayr, where he was little more than two lengths off the winner and the horse immediately in front of him has since been a Class 3 runner-up.

Leg 4 @ 5.50, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

Absolutely Buzzing got off the mark at the fifth time of asking when landing a similar Class 6 handicap over this track/trip last time out. She's up 6lbs here, but did win rather cozily that day and the two immediately behind her have made the frame again since. Thomas Equinas has also won over course and distance but his 2024 form (997) is unrecognisable from his last four 2023 results (1101), so something may be amiss there.

Bottom weight Bold Suitor was a winner and then a runner-up in his last two starts, both over course and distance. Thoughtful Gift won two starts ago and both Havana Smoke and Fariha finished third in handicaps last time out. All of these horses show up well on Instant Expert too, giving them all a chance of making the frame with the obvious caveat that whilst Thomas Equinas clearly has ability, it isn't showing right now...

...and I probably should have just omitted him from this list. Havana Smoke and Fariha might not be helped by a high draw although the non-runners here move this pair from stalls 12 & 13 to a slightly nearer 10 & 11 and LTO winner Absolutely Buzzing is now as low as stall 5 which will be helpful. We've no out and out front runner in the field here , but Bold Suitor and Thoughtful Gift raced prominently last time and the former pretty much made all when winning over course and distance two starts ago, so they're probably the pace angle here.

Both are in good form and score well no Instant Expert, so I'll take this pair (1) Thoughtful Gift and (15) Bold Suitor along with LTO winner (5) Absolutely Buzzing.

Leg 5 @ 6.20, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

A fairly modest looking card for a Class 4 handicap with very few coming here in any semblance of form. Dark Side Thunder was the only one to make the frame last time out, beaten by less than a length at Yarmouth and he does have 7 wins and 2 further places from 16 A/W outings. Myconian was a runner-up three starts ago, Regal Envoy matching that on his penultimate run as did Mojomaker but he has a 406 day lay-off to overcome.

C&D winner Princess Shabnam has plummeted in the weights (107 to 78) after 19 straight losses, but she was a three-quarter length runner-up on her last A/W outing, so she might now be dangerously weighted and if Tan Rapido shows no ill effects from a near six month break, he could well be one to consider. He was admittedly last home of nine in a Class 2 handicap at Sandown last time out, but his other three starts saw him finish 212 and the drop back in class is sure to help.

Instant Expert throws Kodiac Thriller into the mix too...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map also highlights Regal Envoy...

(4) Regal Envoy has been running pretty well of late, he's only 2lbs higher than his last win and scores well on both Instant Expert and Pace/Draw, so he's in. C&D winner (7) Princess Shabnam is likely to be upfront with him, she's dangerously weighted here and showed signs of a recovery on her last A/W run, so she's in too, but I suspect both will play second fiddle to (9) Dark Side Thunder who'll probably tuck in behind them from stall 3 for a late burst. He's in good nick, gets weight all round, scores well on Instant Expert and both his yard & jockey have decent records at this venue.

Leg 6 @ 6.50, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

Division 2 of the above race looks a stronger affair with both American Bay and Nemov wining over 6f last time out. The former won by 2.5 lengths at Redcar to get off the mark at the ninth time of asking whilst the latter prevailed by a length at Kempton for a first win in his six starts. He has a runner-up finish and a win from two A/W runs (both over 6f at Kempton) in contrast to his form (4844) on the Flat, whilst American Bay's only previous A/W outing saw him finish second of eleven over 7f at Kempton beaten by a neck, so I expect both to go well here today.

Bottom weight Bowman is far more experienced after 48 races and whilst he doesn't win very often, he always seems to be in the mix, having finished 1228332 in his last seven, beaten by less than a length at Wolverhampton last time out. This, however, is tougher up two classes. Spring Bloom has won two of his last four, Balon D'Or won two starts ago and Invincible Speed has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six.

Jimmy Speaking has two wins and a runner-up finish from five and could also be involved here, although I firmly believe that we've two races in one here. The pair of LTO winners are racing for the win with the seven others aiming for that final spot in the frame with Instant Expert suggesting that Jimmy Speaking, Crimson Sand and Invincible Speed the more likely to do so. All three are relatively well drawn, but Crimson Sand hasn't been seen for over six months and might need the run...

...whilst Jimmy Speaking might well be a tad high in the weights. That said, he might well go for it from the off, based on the pace data we hold...

I'm definitely with (5) American Bay and (6) Nemov here, but I now have the conundrum of Jimmy Speaking who might be too high in the weights, Crimson Sand who hasn't raced for some time, Invincible Speed who almost ticks the boxes and Bowman who on the face of form, Instant Expert and pace should be a pick, but is the 40/1 market outsider with Bet365. All things considered, I'm going to err on the side of consistency/caution and take (3) Invincible Speed, but I'm going to have a small E/W bet on Bowman as 40/1 looks too tempting to let pass.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Gilet, (2) Antonin Dvorak & (11) Oasis Sunrise

Leg 2: (1) Twitch, (5) Wilde And Dandy & (8) Dumfries

Leg 3: (2) Baraq, (3) Red Hat Eagle & (5) Hosanna Power

Leg 4: (1) Thoughtful Gift,(5) Absolutely Buzzing & (15) Bold Suitor

Leg 5: (4) Regal Envoy, (7) Princess Shabnam & (9) Dark Side Thunder

Leg 6: (3) Invincible Speed, (5) American Bay & (6) Nemov

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck & have a great weekend!
Chris



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Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Newcastle, Salisbury, Southwell & Warwick.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

*

The biggest pot is at Chelmsford, where the polytrack is standard to slow for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 5.00 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

Not a great deal to work with here, but Biniorella Bay has ran creditably in defeat with two fourth place finishes at Group 3 since winning at Newmarket in June. She sets the standard here and with her yard in good form and with a decent record at this venue, she'd be the one to beat for me with the main danger coming from Mythical Bird who finished 3rd of 13 at Kempton last time out.

Neoma has a pair of runner-up finishes to her name, but those races didn't seem as strong as the Kempton race above, whilst the unknown quantity here is the Roger Varian-trained Protest, who might end up being the one most likely to upset the applecart

(1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...

Grand Duchess Olga won relatively comfortably over this trip at Kempton in June and was then third upped in class over the same track/trip next/last time out. She's had a rest since mid-July and now drops back in class and should go well. Pfingstberg had finished 331231 in his six runs this year before a disappointing effort at Beverley (7th of 8) last time out. He, too, has had a break and if returning to his previous good form, has an excellent chance here.

Dereham has been getting closer to winning recently, finishing third in each of his last two starts and only went down by a length and a half at Pontefract a fortnight ago. Easter Icon did win last time out, but that was over hurdles and he hasn't run well on level ground since winning at Wolverhampton over 1m6f back in February. Simiyann and Taxiing are both right out of form at the moment but bottom weight Veer (9lb 3yo weight allowance) was a runner-up in back to back 1m6f handicaps at Southwell and Nottingham in July/August prior to struggling when upped in trip to 2m at Newcastle recently.

And after looking at both Instant Expert and the top of the pace chart...

...I'm going with (1) Pfingstberg and (3) Grand Duchess Olga along with (5) Dereham who looks on the verge of landing a race soon.

Leg 3 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 7f...

Telford won over course and distance on handicap debut last time out, Matharu has finished 212 in his last three starts and has a stack of trainer/jockey stats to support his claims...

The Feminine Urge was a winner two starts ago and Rotation won three back and that's pretty much it from a form perspective, although Brandywine Falls has run better than two fourth places on the bounce might suggest, especially last time out when staying on strongly over 6f at Redcar. The line came too quickly for him that day and the step up to 7f here might be his shot at getting off the mark.

We'd now normally look for speedy types over 7f here at Chelmsford, but with no obvious front-runner in the pack...

...I'll refer back to my notes above and take (8) Matharu and (11) Telford on form with the promise/prospect of  more to come from (7) Brandywine Falls over this trip.

Leg 4 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f...

A modest looking contest with only really Dancing Magic looking like he might win a race soon, even if he is a 16-race maiden. He was a runner-up at Chester four starts ago and again here over a mile last time out, beaten by just a length and a quarter and that run sets the standard here, I feel. He was only headed inside the final furlong by the 92-rated 4/11 fav and the drop in trip should help here.

Next best is probably/possibly Stanage who has made the frame three times from his five starts, but could only finish 6th of 10 on his A/W debut last time out. That said, he has been rated at 81 by the assessors, so they might have seen something in him and he'll wear blinkers for the first time today.

As for a third pick here, the field seems much of a muchness, but the market seems to suggest the filly Jumeirah Sea might be the one to pose the biggest threat. She improved upon her debut effort when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Kempton four weeks ago and a drop in both trip and class could see her get closer today.

(1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5 : 7.00 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

On form, you have to start with the three LTO winners; Pinball Wizard scored over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago and is 3 from 4 on standard to slow polytrack. Nammos won here over course and distance a month ago on her second yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam and Desert Dream comes here seeking a hat-trick after two wins over today's trip at Catterick. He might well be 10yrs old now, but he has been in the first three home in four of his last five.

I did, however, have doubts about all three here from a pace perspective as none tend to race from the front, which is often the key to success over shorter trips here at Chelmsford, but closer inspection of the whole field suggests a falsely run race anyway, which would suit horses who don't tend to lead...

Guiteau, Super Hit and Solara might well make a break for it early on, but none of them are running particularly well right now and I suspect they'd be reined it and beaten as they have in their recent outings, so I'm sticking with the form guide and taking (2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos and (12) Desert Dream here.

Leg 6 : 7.30 Chelmsford, a 16-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ selling handicap over 1m2f...

Clear Justice looks the pick on seasonal form, having won twice at Brighton over 1m and 1m2f in June/July and was only beaten by a head there over 1m2f last time out, some 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse. Milvus would be of interest if turned back out just two days after racing at Bath, where the heavy ground didn't seem to suit him. Prior to that run, he had finished third in back to back races at Windsor over 1m and 1m2f on quicker ground and he also finished third on his last standard to slow polytrack run.

The Instant Expert picture looks pretty bleak, but does throw Semser's name into the ring...

...whilst the likes of Hurtle & Juan Cool Dude enter the equation based on their low draw and early pace...

Sadly neither of that pair are in great form, although Hurtle was a runner-up three starts ago, but I'm going to overlook him and take (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice and also (12) Milvus, who might well contest the lead here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2: (1) Pfingstberg, (3) Grand Duchess Olga & (5) Dereham

Leg 3: (7) Brandywine Falls, (8) Matharu & (11) Telford

Leg 4: (1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5:(2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos & (12) Desert Dream

Leg 6: (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice & (12) Milvus

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A reminder that I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after this piece, I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October. Some of you might be glad of the break!

 



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Vetiver bounces back in Chelsmford feature

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Vetiver looks bound for the Qatar Goodwood Festival after claiming a second Listed-class victory in the bet365 Queen Charlotte Fillies’ Stakes at Chelmsford.

The seven-furlong contest has been won by smart performers such as Highfield Princess and Billesdon Brook in the past and Andrew Balding’s four-year-old joined the roll of honour in fine style, posting a quick time in the process.

Making her all-weather debut, the daughter of Twilight Son forged ahead at the furlong pole and was always then doing enough to fend off the late charge of Cloud Cover by a neck.

Vetiver was also a winner at Listed level at Carlisle around this time last year and jockey David Probert hopes there is more to come from the 12-1 scorer this summer.

He told Racing TV: “She’s a dual Listed winner and came here off the back of a run at Lingfield where she had a bit of a bad draw and she was out in plenty of daylight throughout.

“Nice draw today, she’s worked on a similar kind of surface at home and she seems to go well on it and I got a nice tow round. It was a relatively even gallop and she was able to relax.

“The track’s held quite a lot of water and with these all-weather tracks it tightens up due to the water, so that’s probably the reason for it (the fast time).

“But it was a strongly-run affair and she’s not a bad filly – she wears a hood, she’s a little bit keen in her races, but she relaxed well today.

“I suppose (owners) Cheveley Park and Andrew will have a plan with her, but she’s taken her racing a lot better, especially the last couple of times, so you’d think a track like Goodwood should suit her.”



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Bracken’s Laugh romps home in impressive Chelmsford strike

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Bracken’s Laugh looks a colt bound for bigger and better things judged on a decisive victory in the Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes at Chelmsford.

A field of eight three-year-olds went to post for this one-mile contest, with Aidan O’Brien’s Royal Lodge Stakes third Capulet all the rage as the 8-13 favourite.

The Karl Burke-trained Cuban Tiger and John and Thady Gosden’s Orne, first and third in last week’s Listed Burradon Stakes on Good Friday, added further intrigue, but it was 9-1 shot Bracken’s Laugh who emerged much the best in the hands of Finley Marsh.

A winner on his Newbury debut in September before finishing fifth in the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud the following month, the Zoffany colt travelled nicely in the middle of the pack on this seasonal reappearance before quickening smartly in the straight to claim a two-and-three-quarter-length victory.

The front-running Orne boxed on for second, with Capulet a shade disappointing in third.

“I don’t think I’ve had many Group One runners, but he won last year in the Haynes, Hanson And Clark and I thought I’d give him a go in the Group One in France,” Hughes told Racing TV.

“As it turned out, we ended up on the wrong side of the track and the ground was very heavy and he just didn’t get home, but we felt he could be a Group One horse then, so this year starting off it was very important he didn’t have too hard a race first up and we’d learn a lot from it.

“I was really excited by the way he travelled. This horse would gallop with anything at home and I feel he’s a mile and a quarter horse and maybe not quite a mile and a half horse with the speed he shows at home.

“So, I was really looking forward to seeing him run over a mile to see how he’d travel on a better surface and he travelled immensely well and quickened up really good.

“I made a decision two months ago I would come here first, you just don’t have to get them quite as fit for the all-weather as you do for soft ground on the grass. I thought this would be a nice introduction and if he was placed today, I would have been happy as a stepping-stone towards Chester.

“I don’t feel he’s a Guineas horse or a Derby horse, so I’d like to go quietly, run in the Dee Stakes and then on to a Group Three at Royal Ascot over a mile and a quarter.

“I have a month until Chester and then I have another month until Royal Ascot, so the plan looks good at the moment and I hope we can pull it off.”



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Hayley Turner brings up magical 1,000th career winner

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Hayley Turner secured the 1,000th winner of her record-breaking riding career aboard Tradesman at Chelmsford on Tuesday evening.

Turner has been a pioneer for female jockeys since arriving on the scene as an apprentice in 2000, notching a string of landmark firsts.

After reaching the 999-winner mark with Lunar Eclipse at Newmarket earlier this month, Turner was made to wait a little longer for her 1,000th – but appropriately it came in the Dream Ahead colours of owner Khalifa Dasmal for trainer David Simcock.

For it was in 2011 she broke new ground when steering Dream Ahead to victory in the July Cup at Newmarket, becoming the first woman to secure a Group One victory outright.

Dream Ahead’s triumph was quickly followed by another elite-level success on board Margot Did in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York just over a month later.

Hayley Turner after Royal Ascot success this year
Hayley Turner after Royal Ascot success this year (John Walton/PA)

Beaming as she returned to unsaddle from Tradesman, who was sent off the 9-4 favourite for the two-mile Illuminate Christmas Ball Handicap, Turner told Racing TV: “It’s taken me plenty of time, it’s nice to see that the girls behind me that are up and coming – Hollie (Doyle), Saffie (Osborne), Nicola Currie, Josephine (Gordon), they are all riding so well every day. Although it’s taken me 20 years, it will probably take them half the time, it’s nice to see the progression from when I started to now. It’s great.

“It makes me feel very proud when I think that perhaps I played a part in the successes of their career, a very small part.

“I’ve seen a lot of the girls come and go and they’ve all played a big part in getting female riders to where they are now.

“Unfortunately Khalifa Dasmal’s not here, but I’m sure he’ll be watching at home and I’m hugely grateful to him. I’ve had a lot of fun on his horses over the years.”

Speaking of her best racing memory so far and her biggest supporters, Turner added: “David Simcock, who gave me my first Group One winner and has been a supporter of mine since day one and continues to do so.

Turner and Margot Did after landing the Nunthorpe
Turner and Margot Did after landing the Nunthorpe (John Giles/PA)

“It was particularly nice to have a Group One winner for Michael Bell on Margot Did in the Nunthorpe, he helped get me going as an apprentice and got the ball rolling. That was one of the hardest things to do at that time because we girls weren’t that fashionable.

“He’s really put his neck on the line, as has David, to get me here.”

Turner has smashed through countless barriers over the past two decades, notably sharing the apprentice title with Saleem Golam in 2005 before becoming the first female jockey to ride 100 winners in a calendar year in 2008.

The 40-year-old announced her retirement from riding in the autumn of 2015 and the following year was made an OBE for services to horseracing in the Queen’s Birthday Honours.

The Nottinghamshire-born jockey made a brief return to the saddle in the summer of 2016, initially to take part in the Shergar Cup, and later enjoyed a spell in France before confirming her intention to return to full-time race-riding on home soil in February of 2018.

In 2019, she became only the second female jockey – and first since Gay Kelleway 32 years earlier – to ride a Royal Ascot winner when Thanks Be triumphed in the Sandringham Handicap.

This year, Turner claimed her fourth Royal Ascot victory when partnering Docklands in the Britannia Stakes, yet another major highlight on the road to her latest achievement.

Hayley Turner is a stalwart of the Shergar Cup
Hayley Turner is a stalwart of the Shergar Cup (John Walton/PA)

The Professional Jockeys Association paid its tribute, with interim chief executive Dale Gibson saying: “It’s rare for jockeys to ride 1,000 winners, but Hayley Turner OBE has become the first female rider in Britain to do so.

“Her career to date has been full of superlatives; Hayley was the first female jockey to ride 100 winners in a season, she was also champion apprentice jockey as well as winning some of the UK and world’s most prestigious races, including four Royal Ascot winners to date.

“Hayley is one of a growing number of outstanding female jockeys in Britain who compete against men at the highest levels of the sport and across the globe. The Professional Jockeys Association, which champions all jockeys’ interests, believes Hayley’s achievements will encourage many more women to participate in the sport, with the expectation that more than a fifth of all jockeys in the UK will be women by 2030.

“Congratulations Hayley – a truly fantastic achievement.”



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Breeders’ Cup not ruled out as a possible option for Mawj

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A trip to the Breeders’ Cup will come under consideration for 1000 Guineas heroine Mawj, but only if she recovers sufficiently from the issue that ruled her out of Royal Ascot.

Saeed bin Suroor’s charge scooped big-race honours when edging out Tahiyra at Newmarket in May and with Dermot Weld’s filly subsequently claiming the Irish equivalent on her next start the duo were poised for a clash of the Classic winners in the Coronation Stakes at the Royal meeting.

However, an unsatisfactory scope meant Mawj was missing from the final line-up for that contest, with Bin Suroor later revealing she had a bad infection in her chest.

The three-year-old is currently undergoing a quiet time as she continues her recovery, but could make a return later in the campaign ahead of a possible trip to Santa Anita in early November – providing she is showing positive signs she has returned to full health.

Bin Suroor said: “She’s still in treatment for coughing. She was coughing just before Ascot when she was ready to run.

“She had mucus and we scrubbed her and she didn’t look great so now we are giving her a break because we have scrubbed her a few times. We will allow her to get better slowly and we have no plan for her.

“Maybe the plan if she is doing well and is happy will be to have one more race here and then take her to the Breeders’ Cup. Maybe she will have one more race here, but only if she is ready.”

Bin Suroor was speaking after White Moonlight gave the Godolphin handler back-to-back victories in the Champagne Collet Queen Charlotte Fillies’ Stakes at Chelmsford.

The six-year-old was the beneficiary of a fine front-running ride from jockey Kieran Shoemark in the Listed seven-furlong event and will now step up to Group Three level at the Qatar Goodwood Festival, for the Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes on August 2.

“She’s done well and has been in good form,” said the trainer of the 9-2 winner.

“Seven furlongs suits her as we’ve tried before and I said to the jockey you have to be there in front, you have to lead. She was in front all the way and she won it well. Kieran is a good jockey and he did really well.

“In the morning when she works she’s very honest and always works well. She’s a tough filly and now we go to the Oak Tree at Goodwood early next month.”



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Smart James Tate performers all set for action this week

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The James Tate duo of Iconic Moment and New Definition are set to cross paths again in the Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes at Chelmsford on Saturday.

The pair faced one another in the Listed Spring Cup Stakes at Lingfield earlier in the month, where Iconic Moment maintained his undefeated record to prevail by a short head from his stablemate.

A winner of two prior novices, Iconic Moment is a lightly-raced son of Harry Angel who looked green during his Listed triumph, but has obvious ability that Tate hopes will be enhanced by a step up to a mile – and transfer to turf in time.

He said: “He’s a horse with a lot of talent and potential, he hasn’t quite got it all together yet but despite that he is three from three.

“We think stepping him up to the mile is going to help him so that will be interesting for both of them on Saturday because they’ve both only raced as far as seven furlongs so far.

“So far he has only run on the all-weather, but he’s certainly bred to run on grass and goes nicely on grass.

“The question is what level is he going to be, but I’d like to think he’d be running in Group races over seven furlongs or a mile on the turf hopefully.”

New Definition is a more experienced horse and will make his 13th start at the weekend, with his pedigree familiar to Tate as he trained both the dam, Second Generation, and the grand dam, El Manati.

Both were good quality sprinters and the colt is by Invincible Spirit, leaving the trainer pleasantly surprised by how the three-year-old has handled a step up in distance.

He said: “It’s been a bit of surprise that’s he’s getting the distance because he’s from a family I know well, I trained his dam to win a five-furlong Listed sprint and I trained his grand dam to just get touched off in the Cornwallis.

“He’s by Invincible Spirit so you’d have thought he’d be all about speed, but he does seems to have stepped up his form a little bit in his last two runs over seven (furlongs) so this run over a mile will be interesting, and I’d be pretty confident he’ll be every bit as good on the grass.”

Tate has also used the all-weather to bring on the promising four-year-old Mount Athos, a wide-margin winner of two novice events last year.

Taking a Thirsk contest in June by five lengths and a Kempton event in October by the same distance, the bay will now return to the latter track over course and distance on Wednesday rather than take up a Listed Cammidge Trophy entry at Doncaster on Saturday.

“We did toy with the idea of putting him in at the deep end in that Doncaster race, but by the looks of the forecast it is going to be pretty soft and there’d be a lot of unknowns about that,” said Tate.

“We’ve decided to stick with what we know he’s good at, he won over course and distance at Kempton by five lengths on his last start and he looks to have improved over the winter so we’re very hopeful for Wednesday.

“We’d like to think that he’s a Pattern horse, but he obviously needs to prove that on the track.

“We’ve a few nice ones this year, I hope, but we’ll find out a bit more about them when we run them against everyone else’s nice ones!”



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Oisin Murphy makes winning comeback at Chelmsford

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Oisin Murphy made a winning return to the saddle at Chelmsford on Thursday evening, following his 14-month ban for alcohol and Covid breaches.

The three-time champion jockey had just the one ride when partnering the Mick Appleby-trained Jupiter Express in the second race on the card, the Winning Connections Networking Handicap.

He had not ridden in public since November 2021 – but wasted little time in getting on the scoresheet, travelling smoothly on the inner aboard the 15-8 favourite and swinging into contention on the home bend.

There was no catching The Horse Watchers-owned four-year-old from there and he was always holding runner-up Thismydream, scoring by half a length at the line.

“It’s fantastic (to be back),” Murphy told Racing TV after the race.

“It’s been a while, but it’s brilliant to be back on the racecourse and to also ride a winner as well.

“I’m quite fit and I really enjoyed that. Even the banter in the weighing room I really missed that.”

He added of Jupiter Express: “We felt like we could sit on the rail just behind the leaders and the horse was coming into the race in good form.

“It was a relatively easy job for me and great to get another winner for these connections who are quite shrewd with their purchases and they make effort to put them in the right races. So it was very pleasing to see me jocked up a few days ago for this horse.

Jupiter Express and Oisin Murphy (centre) coming home to win the Winning Connections Networking Handicap at Chelmsford City Racecourse
Jupiter Express and Oisin Murphy (centre) coming home to win the Winning Connections Networking Handicap at Chelmsford City Racecourse (John Walton/PA)

“I hit the front plenty soon and I felt for this grade the pace was quite strong and we were always going to be vulnerable to a closer if hitting the front before the furlong pole, so sharpness-wise I’m going to have to keep thinking about racing all the time and hopefully that instinct will come back quickly. But I will be making every effort to make sure I’m riding as well as I can.”

Murphy will now head to Qatar at the weekend to ride Flaming Rib for Hugo Palmer with trips to Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain also pencilled in over the next few weeks and he hopes his match sharpness will soon return.

He continued: “I’ve been riding out throughout my suspension and it can’t replicate race-riding. That competitiveness and sharpness to make decisions it doesn’t really matter grade or what distance, that only comes from race-riding.

“It was quite a long time to find new jobs and tasks to get through the day. Obviously you ride out but that only kills a few hours a day and I got into a routine of focussing on my show jumpers and riding and training them outside of the mornings and I really enjoyed going to some big show jumping competitions and watching horses taking part.

Oisin Murphy on Jupiter Express after winning the Winning Connections Networking Handicap at Chelmsford City Racecourse
Oisin Murphy on Jupiter Express after winning the Winning Connections Networking Handicap at Chelmsford City Racecourse (John Walton/PA)

“I also kept my eye in by going racing, I was at Royal Ascot and also Glorious Goodwood and my main trainer Andrew Balding had a terrific year last year and I remained part of that success I felt anyway.

“That was a brilliant motivation to go forward and a major factor in having this day as my focus for such a long period.”

The British Horseracing Authority announced last week Murphy will undergo increased alcohol and drug testing after he was found to have failed two racecourse breathalyser tests, at Chester and Newmarket.

At the conclusion of a hearing in February last year it was revealed he also breached Covid rules by lying about his whereabouts in September 2020, visiting the Greek island of Mykonos, which was on the Covid ‘red list’ at the time, but attempting to convince officials he had been at Lake Como in Italy.

Murphy – who told BBC Sport in June last year he had experienced alcoholic blackouts during the period which ultimately led to his suspension – was keen to pay tribute to the support provided his employer Qatar Racing and also long-time ally Balding, while also expressing a desire to atone for his errors.

“Realistically (what I did) it was very silly and I made many, many errors that I wish I hadn’t done,” he added.

“I was given a period of time to think about that and come back with a different mindset. Hopefully over next year and the following years I can prove to be the person I hope to be.”

On his reception and welcome back, he said: “It’s been incredible, when you start naming people you leave people out, but from my family to the Baldings to the whole of the Qatar Racing team, I never felt left out.”



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Oisin Murphy returns to action at Chelmsford on Thursday

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Oisin Murphy returns to the saddle with one ride at Chelmsford on Thursday, following his 14-month ban for alcohol and Covid breaches.

Murphy, a three-time champion jockey, will partner the Mick Appleby-trained Jupiter Express in the second race on the card, the Winning Connections Networking Handicap.

The British Horseracing Authority announced last week that Murphy will undergo increased alcohol and drug testing after he was found to have failed two breathalyser tests.

He has not ridden since November 2021, and in February at the conclusion of a lengthy hearing, at which it was revealed he also breached Covid rules by lying about his whereabouts in September 2020, he was told he could not reapply for his licence until February 16 this year.

Oisin Murphy (right) took part in a parade of jockeys who had ridden for the Queen on Derby day last year
Oisin Murphy (right) took part in a parade of jockeys who had ridden for the Queen on Derby day last year (Tim Goode/PA)

Jupiter Express is owned by The Horse Watchers syndicate, which is partly run by jockeys’ agent and broadcaster Chris Dixon, although Gavin Horne will continue to look after Murphy as before.

“Gavin had asked Mick if there was anything he could ride when he was available,” said Dixon.

“Tom Marquand rode Jupiter Express to be second last time, but he’s in Australia now so the jockey who rode him last time wasn’t there and this was an opportunity for him to have a ride when he came back.

“Mick was always going to support him, he’s ridden plenty of winners for him over the years – and us – so when a top jockey is available we are not afraid to use them. We’re happy to give him his first ride back.

“He’s got a decent chance. He’s been freshened up since his last run as he’d been a little busy and we’d aimed at this card ever since really.

“He’s got a decent chance, he’s in good form and hopefully there’s a little bit of mileage in his handicap mark.”

Murphy is due in Qatar at the weekend to ride Flaming Rib for Hugo Palmer with trips to Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain also pencilled in over the next few weeks.

Coral make Murphy their 15-8 second-favourite for a fourth championship behind last year’s winner William Buick, who is their 1-2 favourite.



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Monday Musings: How much soup have you missed?

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So we’re to brace ourselves for another retrenchment in the battle against Covid by all accounts? Having voluntarily hidden away for five months apart from the once weekly drive to Tesco, sitting in the car while the shopping was effected by the household’s responsible adult, and some less than regular walks around one of the two massive local parks, I don’t feel minded to go back into that oblivion any time soon, writes Tony Stafford.

By my calculations at the very least I’ve missed a conservative 100 trips to the races and, at Chelmsford alone, at least 30 bowls of soup. Where some things are concerned I just can’t help myself. And they do serve up the most wonderful soup (and chicken goujons and chips) in the owners’ room. Okay, the racing goes on everywhere but where you’re looking, but I love it – as far as I can remember!

I’m pleased to learn that the wonderful Linda is still looking after either the owners or is it the trainers at Newmarket? She never sees this, so how can I tell her how much I miss her. Not everyone it seems is happy that as much is being done to thank the owners for their continuing stoical support in face of reducing prize money and a feeling that the entire race programme in Europe is morphing into a homogenous mass.

Last weekend it was the Arc; then it was the Dewhurst and Cesarewitch and next week it’s British Champions Day at Ascot. The week after that the clocks go back and it’s ten minutes to Christmas. You might disagree but I can tell you I was at Cheltenham for the entire four days and nights and that only seems about six weeks ago so quickly has Covid time progressed.

The three O’Brien stables, father and two sons, had the hammer blow of the French testing of their Gain feed which led to the voluntary withdrawal of their Parislongchamp runners over Arc weekend but the levels were clearly back on track in time for Newmarket. There, the number cloths were transposed for Aidan’s two runners in the bet365 Fillies’ Mile on Friday to cause another stir. Snowfall (50-1) and Mother Earth (18-1) actually finished third and eighth rather than the reverse that everyone believed had happened.

Busy at the time of the race – amazing what you find to do when the alternative is coming over and having to quarantine afterwards! – as soon as Aidan O’Brien saw the race recording he spotted the error. Unfortunately the team based in Newmarket, managing the Ballydoyle UK runners in these oddest of times, was not quite as firmly on the ball.

Part of the confusion, for the viewing public anyway, could have been that both were outsiders and ran in Derrick Smith’s purple colours. So too did the Coolmore partners’ third and most eagerly-anticipated contender, the 7-2 shot Shale who was renewing an on-going rivalry with the favourite, Pretty Gorgeous. The talented pair had met three times previously, with the verdict 2-1 in favour of Shale as they filled the first two places each time, including most recently in the Moyglare at the Curragh last month when Shale, trained by Donnacha, beat Pretty Gorgeous, from Joseph’s stable, by almost a length.

Shale could do no better than sixth here, adding to Donnacha’s frustration just days after the rookie trainer’s stable star Fancy Blue retired to stud following her inevitable withdrawal from her planned Arc weekend target.

Joseph, already with Friday’s fillies’ Group 1 in his locker, would have been excused for thinking the Dewhurst Stakes might be coming his way too.  In the National Stakes last month at The Curragh, the previously once-raced Thunder Moon overcame his inexperience when bursting through to beat the Ballydoyle pair of Wembley and St Mark’s Basilica by a length and a half and a short head.

On Saturday, Declan McDonagh soon had Thunder Moon in a more prominent position. Instead of that being the launch-pad for a replica winning spurt up the hill, less than expected materialised. Rather it was dad’s re-opposing duo, St Mark’s Basilica, ridden by Frankie Dettori, crossing the line more comfortably ahead of Wembley, who again finished well into second, this time under Ryan Moore, who had ridden Saturday’s winner in Ireland. The result in other words was a 1-2-3 exact reverse of Ireland’s main juvenile race and Aidan O’Brien’s seventh Dewhurst.

It was tempting for bookmakers to put St Mark’s Basilica, a $1.3million yearling by Siyouni from the Galileo mare Cabaret, at the head of the betting for next year’s 2,000 Guineas after this as he is half-brother to Magna Grecia, (by Invincible Spirit) who won the Classic two years ago. If you prefer to stay with the authentic Guineas-winning formula rather than make do with the broodmare sire, you can always hope that Wembley can turn the form around over another furlong. He’s certainly strong at seven. Battleground (by War Front), another stable-companion and a Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood winner, is also an early 8-1 shot.

When you work every day in close proximity to such giants of any business as Coolmore, Juddmonte or Godolphin, there must be deep down a latent wish or belief that some of the magic dust might percolate on to you. Over the years many of Coolmore’s senior staff have dabbled, or in truth much more than dabbled, in breeding and bloodstock. Always, it seems, they do so with John Magnier’s full support and encouragement.

On Saturday at HQ, when the big cats had done their day’s work finishing 1-2 in yet another Group 1 championship-defining race and metaphorically vacated the scene, some of the “Coolmore mice” were allowed to come out to play. Not that the Group 3 Darley Stakes which ended the two-day meeting was an insignificant affair.

On a day when the only winning favourite came in the 34-runner Cesarewitch with Willie Mullins’ hat-trick-completing Great White Shark, events concluded with a 28-1 success (some people got 40’s!) for a Fozzy Stack-trained four-year-old filly ridden by Jamie Spencer.

It will not be a shock to learn, if you didn’t see the race, that the Co Tipperary Spice Girls who own the filly – and who also raced the filly’s mother, similarly a Group 3 winner before her - had to wait until the last 100 yards for Spencer to put them out of their misery and go into the eventually comfortable winning lead.

I’m sure that the smaller than usual contingent over for the yearling sales at Tatts, but still witness to two massive multi-million buys in M V Magnier’s name last week, would have stayed behind to cheer as the racecard – if there was one – puts it, Mrs Tom Gaffney and Mrs Barbara <wife of Clem> Murphy.

Attempts, admittedly after sensible people will have been long tucked up in bed, even the afore-mentioned no doubt still-celebrating Mr Tom and Mr Clem, initially failed to elucidate Mrs G’s first name, but the wonderful Wendy Normile called just in time to remind me it was Marie. Their filly is called Lady Wannabe, a daughter of Camelot, the nearest we’ve had to a Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970, out of Wannabe Better, who was a half-sister to the even more talented Wannabe Grand.

Both fillies were daughters of the 1990 foal, Wannabe, coincidentally who arrived on this earth seven years before the song of that name which launched the Spice Girls’ careers. So it’s a stretch, but that’s what I’m calling them. I know that with Camelot doing so well in his early years as a stallion and the blue chip female family, even if their two husbands cannot continue to keep the two Tipperary girls in the style in which they are in danger of becoming accustomed, Lady Wannabe will!

As for next Saturday, this morning the entries for Ascot, where soft ground is expected, will be eagerly awaited. Magical, in whichever race she targets, must be a prime candidate for another win having dethroned Ghaiyyath last time, but I’ll be looking for The Revenant, so smooth on his delayed comeback in Paris a week ago to perform a minor giant-killing against Palace Pier in the Mile race.  Fresh is best at this time of the year and no horse will be fresher than the French five-year-old.  In the Balmoral Handicap it is hard to look beyond the Brian Meehan-trained recent course winner Raaeq. He’s 5lb well in despite his penalty and he seemed to love soft ground on the track last time out.

- TS



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Pace Wins The Race: 6f All Weather Handicaps

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In my most recent article, we looked at pace bias in 5f handicaps on the all weather, and as promised here is a follow-up looking at the 6f trip, writes Dave Renham.

For regular readers I appreciate the next few lines in some form or other seem to appear in all my pace articles, but for the benefit of new readers I need to clarify the following: when discussing pace the main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. At www.geegeez.co.uk there is a pace tab within the racecards for each race, and the stats in this article are based on the site’s pace data. These pace data on Geegeez are split into four sections each of which are assigned points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). For all my articles I concentrate on the numerical values to create a plethora of hopefully useful stats.

The minimum distance of five furlongs gives the strongest pace bias on the flat as previous articles have illustrated. However, there is still a bias to pace horses/front runners over an extra furlong, which I will demonstrate in what follows.

The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall pace perspective for 6f all weather handicaps with six or more runners (the data for this article has been taken from the last 5 years 2014 to 2018):

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 325 1812 17.9 1.75
Prominent (3) 523 4448 11.8 1.15
Mid Division (2) 155 2003 7.7 0.79
Held Up (1) 357 4886 7.3 0.72

 

These stats give front runners a solid edge – it is not as strong as over 5f but it is still significant. Just for comparison purposes let us look at the strike rates (SR%) and Impact Values (IVs) for 6f and for 5f:

 

Pace comment 6f 5f   6f 5f
  SR% SR%   IV IV
Led (4) 17.9 22.3   1.75 2.04
Prominent (3) 11.8 12.5   1.15 1.15
Mid Division (2) 7.7 6.5   0.79 0.62
Held Up (1) 7.3 6.7   0.72 0.61

 

Over 6f front runners are still winning 1.75 times more often than average so we still have a decent starting point.

The main data for this article covers all-weather six-furlong handicaps with 6 or more runners. I then split the data into different field sizes – 6 to 8 runners; 9 – 10 runners; 11 or more runners. I did this ‘runner split’ for the 5f all-weather data in the previous article, and over that trip bigger fields produced the strongest front-running bias. As it turns out, this is replicated over 6f too:

6 to 8 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 536 104 19.4 1.41
Prominent (3) 1093 167 15.28 1.11
Mid Division (2) 304 27 8.88 0.66
Held Up (1) 988 107 10.83 0.79

 

9 to 10 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 548 100 18.25 1.73
Prominent (3) 1351 163 12.07 1.15
Mid Division (2) 549 43 7.83 0.74
Held Up (1) 1477 113 7.65 0.73

 

11 or more runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 728 121 16.62 1.98
Prominent (3) 2004 193 9.63 1.14
Mid Division (2) 1150 85 7.39 0.88
Held Up (1) 2421 137 5.66 0.67

 

The IV for front runners increases as the number of runners increases. This is somewhat counter-intuitive and is therefore worth bearing in mind.

The article that discussed 5f all weather sprints looked at each course and distance individually. Once again this is the plan here, as different courses have different layouts, and also there are differences between certain track surfaces too. Let's start with Chelmsford and work through alphabetically.

Chelmsford

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 58 278 20.9 1.97
Prominent (3) 71 562 12.6 1.19
Mid Division (2) 31 422 7.3 0.71
Held Up (1) 44 671 6.6 0.62

 

Just over a fifth of the 6f handicap races (SR 20.9%) at Chelmsford have seen the early leader going on to win. This compares with a strike rate of 26.3% over 5f: not quite as strong but with an IV close to 2 the front-running bias is still clear.

It has already been noted that in bigger fields at all of the all-weather courses the front-running bias seems to be more evident. This is certainly the case here: in races of 11 runners or more at Chelmsford, the front runner has prevailed an impressive 21 times from 87 giving a strike rate of 24.1% and an Impact Value of 2.93.

The draw seems to be material here, too, with those horses drawn nearest to the inside rail performing best when taking the early lead (all 6+ runner races). That makes sense as they will be taking advantage of the shortest route. Horses that have led early from one of the three lowest draws in these big field Chelmsford 6f handicaps have won 25% of their races with an Impact Value of 2.28.

 

Kempton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 72 388 18.6 1.85
Prominent (3) 107 938 11.4 1.14
Mid Division (2) 41 542 7.6 0.78
Held Up (1) 84 1123 7.5 0.75

 

The 6f trip at Kempton has a decent number of races each year giving punters plenty of opportunities to get involved. Front runners have a clear edge here and, as with Chelmsford, field size accentuates this.

In 6f handicaps of 11 or 12 runners (12 is the maximum at Kempton), front runners have secured 39 wins from 176 runners (SR 22.2%) with a very high Impact Value of 2.53. However, the draw data suggest there is no clear advantage to front runners drawn near to the inside rail (low).

 

Lingfield

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 68 297 22.9 2.07
Prominent (3) 76 590 12.9 1.16
Mid Division (2) 32 380 8.4 0.79
Held Up (1) 50 745 6.7 0.61

 

The statistics for Lingfield seem to suggest front runners there have the biggest edge compared with the other five UK all-weather courses. Any front runner here that is well fancied has done extremely well: horses that were either favourite or second favourite and led early over 6f here went on to win 39 times out of 80 runners equating to a win rate of nearly 50%.

 

Newcastle

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 23 143 16.1 1.74
Prominent (3) 34 394 8.6 0.94
Mid Division (2) 17 197 8.6 0.97
Held Up (1) 40 485 8.2 0.89

 

Coincidentally, the front running IV over 5f at Newcastle is also 1.74. Front runners do have an edge here but it is not a course I personally get heavily involved with, as the straight track for all distances up to a mile makes it a unique test of an all-weather horse in Britain. That greater emphasis on stamina produces the reverse to Kempton and Chelmsford, with front runners struggling in bigger fields.

 

Southwell

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 33 166 19.9 1.85
Prominent (3) 102 690 14.8 1.38
Mid Division (2) 7 124 5.6 0.57
Held Up (1) 17 491 3.5 0.32

 

A reasonable IV of 1.85 for front runners, but it is also worth noting that horses which come from midfield or off the pace really struggle here just like they do over 5f. One other area worth sharing with you is when a front runner also happens to be in the top 5 of the Geegeez speed ratings, it has won on 22 of 79 occasions (SR 27.9%) producing an IV of 2.50.

 

Wolverhampton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 71 540 13.1 1.33
Prominent (3) 133 1274 10.4 1.06
Mid Division (2) 27 338 8.0 0.87
Held Up (1) 122 1371 8.9 0.9

 

Comfortably the poorest stats for front runners are at Wolverhampton, where there is a very small edge only and little to write home about. Indeed, pace seems to be far more balanced across the run styles at Wolves than at any of the other tracks.

*

Before I finish, in other articles I have used the various figures to create course and distance pace averages. I do this by adding up the pace scores of all the winners at each course and dividing it by the total number of races. The higher the average score, the more ‘biased’ the course and distance is to horses that lead early or race close to the pace.

Here are the 6 furlong handicap C&D pace averages for the six aw courses:

 

Taking all the data into account, six furlong handicaps on the all weather do offer ‘pace’ punters a potential edge. It is, unsurprisingly perhaps, not as strong as over five furlongs, but still strong enough to give clued in bettors a good leg up on the opposition. All we need now is to find a fail-safe method to predict the front runner...

- Dave Renham



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