Tix Picks, Thursday 17/10/24

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Southwell & Wincanton

But, what is Tix?

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

..with the largest pot offered at Southwell, but I think I'll head for Chelmsford instead where the polytrack has been deemed as standard for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.35, a 5-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 1m2f...

Devils Advocate started slowly on debut at Newmarket last month, but soon got the hang of things to finish well in third place, some 12 lengths clear of the next horse and he takes a drop in class here. Rogue Diplomat was also third on debut three weeks ago, beaten by less than a length at Beverley after also taking a little while to get going.

Both of these stayed on well and should both appreciate a step up in trip today, as hopefully will Kate O'Riley. She didn't go quite as well as the pair above in a 3.5 length defeat and had to be taken to the start in a red hood, so she probably sits behind the other two in the pecking order with a watching brief advised about newcomers Blue Laced and Navalanche.

Class-dropping (1) Devil's Advocate plus (3) Rogue Diplomat for the opener.

Leg 2 @ 5.10, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Early Morning Dew was beaten by four lengths over course and distance last time out, but had finished 212 in his previous three starts. Switchel was a decent third at Southwell over 1m4f, fading late on but now drops back in trip and class. Gone Rogue also drops in class after back to back runner-up finishes at Musselburgh.

Oriental Art has made the frame in three of his last four, Myna has two runner-up finishes from his last five and drops in class and Sun Festival showed ability in the last few months of 2023 finishing 1223 on the All-Weather. He hasn't been the same yet this season after two runs following an eight month break, but a switch back from turf might be the key for him.

Jenson Benson has only won four of his thirty-five career starts, but all four wins have been here at Chelmsford, including one over course and distance with Early Morning Dew and Sun Festival also previous winners at this track/trip and all three look seemingly well suited by expected conditions...

Early pace is often key here at Chelmsford and the top of the pace charts looks like this...

...and with those three all already mentioned earlier on either form or Instant Expert, I'll put all three on my ticket builder. Sun Festival looks a better horse to me than the 28/1 odds might suggest and with bookies paying four places, a small E/W bet might be in order too. I also can't ignore Early Morning Dew from Instant Expert and he has been running well, so I'm taking four here from a big field; (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival

Leg 3 @ 5.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

H Key Lails was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance on his last start over course and distance, but he was beaten by the re-opposing Bold Suitor that day. Bold Suitor has since raced twice finishing as runner-up over course and distance here over this trip on both occasions and he's actually better offat the weights than H Key Lails, because the latter's jockey now only claims 3lbs instead of the five she did last time, but we're talking small margins here and both remain closely matched and in form.

Charlatan hasn't raced since since finishing as runner-up at Leicester in early July, but his results this year (311130322) have been tremendous and if race-ready could go well again here and he completes the form shortlist, whilst Instant Expert suggests that Drifts Away might also be in the mix...

H Key Lails has the benefit of the low draw, as does Drifts Away, whilst the head of the pace averages looks like this..

All of which points to several horses having a really good chance, but here's where I'm at. I think that (4) Bold Suitor is the best horse in the race right now and if I take him, I have to take (1) H Key Lails as they're so closely matched and then it's any one from three or four and I think that if the lay-off doesn't affect him too much, the (3) Charlatan is the most reliable/consistent option.

Leg 4 @ 6.15, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Only Profitman and Wrath of Hector made the frame last time out and the former is one of two course & distance winners (along with top-weight Yoshimi) in the race. he comes here after being beaten by just a neck over track and trip three weeks ago and this looks a weaker race.

Wrath of Hector won at Yarmouth three starts ago and was a staying-on third over 6f here last time out, so the extra furlong might work in his favour here, whilst from a pace/draw perspective, Zachary looks best off...

...and Chelmsford seems to be where he runs best with two wins and a place from six visits. He'd be an unlikely winner here, of course, having lost sixteen on the bounce but he is 8lbs below his last winning mark and might be better than an 11/1 fifth favourite position would suggest and I think I'll chance my arm with (10) Zachary as a back-up to the form pair of (7) Profitman and (8) Wrath Of Hector

Leg 5 @ 6.45, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

Twitch was fourth of ten, beaten by just over two lengths over course and distance last time out and had finished 211 in his three previous outings (all over C&D), so may need a small drop back in weight to get winning again and whilst he's in good nick, my initial thoughts were that the bookies have this right, by having three of the top four in the weights (Local Music, Bell Shot & How Impressive) as the market leaders witht he first two on the card both dropping in class.

Local Music is 22414121 in her last eight starts and is 4lbs well in under a penalty after a four length win here over this trip a week ago and should be the one to beat on form. Bell Shot has a win and three runner-up finishes from his last seven races and How Impressive was third at Thirsk in early September before going down by just a head here over 6f last time out. he stayed on well that day, grabbed second late on but just couldn't quite get to the winner. The extra furlong could help here and The Waiting Game (who was third that day, half a length further back) has since won at Kempton.

Instant Expert backs up my thoughts about Local Music and How Impressive, but seems to show Twitch in a better light than Bell Shot...

There's not much between them in terms of pace with Twitch slightly edging it...

...but Bell Shot does have the better draw. I don't think that either of these beat the other two mentioned and I'm sticking with my 'gut feeling' by taking (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive here with Twitch the danger.

Leg 6 @ 7.15, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Simiyann certainly didn't look like a 13-race maiden when rompong home by six lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago as a drop in trip and the wearing of a visor seemed to help and I'm not sure a 5lb pemalty stops him making the frame here, but Smokey Malone was a good third over this trip at Southwell last time out and was also third on his last run over this course and distance.

Further down the weights carrying 24lbs and 14lbs less than the above pair is Drouthy Neebor, a six-race maiden who has prgressed the further he has been asked to run. Ineffective over a mile, he was third of seven over 1m2f at Lingfield in early September and backed that up by finishing third of eleven next/last time ut at Kempton and might be worth another look stepped up further in trip.

Buxted Reel races off a mark a pound lower than when the runner-up in this race last year and whilst he's winless in six since, he has finished third over 1m4f at Leicester and third over 1m5f at Bath this summer, so gets the trip and is well weighted. There's no real advantage/disadvantage from the draw (as you'd expect over 1m6f!) nor the pace here and most of them run the same way anyway, which should mean the 'better' horses make the frame, but there's a clear indicator from Instant Expert...

...so I'm on (1) Simiyann, (2) Buxted Reel & (3) Smokey Malone here. I no doubts that Drouthy Neebor will go well over 1m6f at some point, I just hope it's not today.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Devil's Advocate & (3) Rogue Diplomat

Leg 2: (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival

Leg 3: (1) H Key Lails, (3) Charlatan & (4) Bold Suitor

Leg 4: (7) Profitman, (8) Wrath Of Hector & (10) Zachary

Leg 5: (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive

Leg 6: (1) Simiyann, (2) Buxted Reel & (3) Smokey Malone

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

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