Tix Picks, Saturday 12/10/24

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Chepstow, Hexham, Newmarket & York.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with a couple of huge pots on offer at Newmarket & York. My confidence/ego has taken a bit of a battering of late, so I'm going to avoid those high profile meetings and get back to basics with a trip to Chelmsford, where the going is predictably standard for our six races that begin with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...

Gilet is 2212 in his last four and was narrowly beaten in a Class 4 handicap last time out. He drops in class here and has a stack of stats to suggest he'll go well again today...

Antonin Dvorak was a runner-up over 7f at Musselburgh on debut in late August and then went one better to win over the same track and trip next/last time out in mid-September. He also drops in class and his yard looks in decent nick right now...

I suspect that this race will be between this pair although Master Technician also drops in class after finishing as a runner-up at Bath in mid-September, beaten by three quarters of a length but a neck in front of Tap Dancer who won at Bath yesterday. Oasis Sunrise was a runner-up over today's trip at Chester in mid-June, headed pretty much on the line and a repeat of that effort puts her close again today.

I'm definitely with (1) Gilet and (2) Antonin Dvorak for this one and I think I'll also take (11) Oasis Sunrise, as she offers mor value than Master Technician at current odds.

Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Handicap over 7f...

Joint top-weight Twitch brings the best form to the table, having finished 211 in his last three starts, all over today's course and distance and although this will be a little tougher up in weight again, there's no reason why he shouldn't be in the frame based on his performances since switching to the Polytrack, especially as main rival Lady Wingalong is now a non-runner.

Dumfries is the only other runner in the field to have made the frame last time out, coming home third of eleven over this trip at Wolverhampton in a niggly race a fortnight ago. Elsewhere both Nemorum and the fast-finisher Wilde And Dandy are former course and distance winners. The former won over C&D five starts and almost a year ago and the latter drops in class today and is now 2lbs below his last winning mark.

The 2-year place stats give him and a few others some hope of making the frame today too...

Matt Bisogno often refers to Chelmsford as a bit of a speedway track, where pace is often key to success and yet again Twitch is the one to chase...

...and there's a real danger/possibility that he runs away with this one. (1) Twitch is the one for me here and I'll supplement him with (8) Dumfries after his gutsy run at Wolverhampton last time out with (5) Wilde And Dandy the backup plan.

Leg 3 @ 5.20, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

On form alone, Baraq sets the standard here. After only finishing 6th of 8 over this course and distance on debut 13 months ago, he has made the frame in 6 of his 7 starts, winning his last two. Red Hat Eagle returns to the A/W and 2 and 4 length defeats on turf to hopefully pick up where left off finishing 31 in his last two A/W efforts over a mile, including a course/distance win here in July. He's A Gentleman finished 102 in his last three, Eagle Day was also an LTO runner-up and both King Of Charm and Berkshire Nugget won their penultimate races.

Several of the horses named above are amongst my 2-year place stats eyecatchers...

Baraq also likes to set the tempo of the race, but he might have company up top today...

...although I suspect Hosanna Power (down in trip and just 1 lb above last winning mark) will prove a bigger threat than the nine-race maiden The Hun here and that early pace might just be enough to propel (5) Hosanna Power into the frame (for a sixth time in seven starts) behind (2) Baraq. Of the others, I think (3) Red Hat Eagle makes most appeal based on his A/W stats above. He's a former course and distance winner and now drops two classes after a decent 5th of 14 in a competitive Class 2 handicap at Ayr, where he was little more than two lengths off the winner and the horse immediately in front of him has since been a Class 3 runner-up.

Leg 4 @ 5.50, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

Absolutely Buzzing got off the mark at the fifth time of asking when landing a similar Class 6 handicap over this track/trip last time out. She's up 6lbs here, but did win rather cozily that day and the two immediately behind her have made the frame again since. Thomas Equinas has also won over course and distance but his 2024 form (997) is unrecognisable from his last four 2023 results (1101), so something may be amiss there.

Bottom weight Bold Suitor was a winner and then a runner-up in his last two starts, both over course and distance. Thoughtful Gift won two starts ago and both Havana Smoke and Fariha finished third in handicaps last time out. All of these horses show up well on Instant Expert too, giving them all a chance of making the frame with the obvious caveat that whilst Thomas Equinas clearly has ability, it isn't showing right now...

...and I probably should have just omitted him from this list. Havana Smoke and Fariha might not be helped by a high draw although the non-runners here move this pair from stalls 12 & 13 to a slightly nearer 10 & 11 and LTO winner Absolutely Buzzing is now as low as stall 5 which will be helpful. We've no out and out front runner in the field here , but Bold Suitor and Thoughtful Gift raced prominently last time and the former pretty much made all when winning over course and distance two starts ago, so they're probably the pace angle here.

Both are in good form and score well no Instant Expert, so I'll take this pair (1) Thoughtful Gift and (15) Bold Suitor along with LTO winner (5) Absolutely Buzzing.

Leg 5 @ 6.20, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

A fairly modest looking card for a Class 4 handicap with very few coming here in any semblance of form. Dark Side Thunder was the only one to make the frame last time out, beaten by less than a length at Yarmouth and he does have 7 wins and 2 further places from 16 A/W outings. Myconian was a runner-up three starts ago, Regal Envoy matching that on his penultimate run as did Mojomaker but he has a 406 day lay-off to overcome.

C&D winner Princess Shabnam has plummeted in the weights (107 to 78) after 19 straight losses, but she was a three-quarter length runner-up on her last A/W outing, so she might now be dangerously weighted and if Tan Rapido shows no ill effects from a near six month break, he could well be one to consider. He was admittedly last home of nine in a Class 2 handicap at Sandown last time out, but his other three starts saw him finish 212 and the drop back in class is sure to help.

Instant Expert throws Kodiac Thriller into the mix too...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map also highlights Regal Envoy...

(4) Regal Envoy has been running pretty well of late, he's only 2lbs higher than his last win and scores well on both Instant Expert and Pace/Draw, so he's in. C&D winner (7) Princess Shabnam is likely to be upfront with him, she's dangerously weighted here and showed signs of a recovery on her last A/W run, so she's in too, but I suspect both will play second fiddle to (9) Dark Side Thunder who'll probably tuck in behind them from stall 3 for a late burst. He's in good nick, gets weight all round, scores well on Instant Expert and both his yard & jockey have decent records at this venue.

Leg 6 @ 6.50, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

Division 2 of the above race looks a stronger affair with both American Bay and Nemov wining over 6f last time out. The former won by 2.5 lengths at Redcar to get off the mark at the ninth time of asking whilst the latter prevailed by a length at Kempton for a first win in his six starts. He has a runner-up finish and a win from two A/W runs (both over 6f at Kempton) in contrast to his form (4844) on the Flat, whilst American Bay's only previous A/W outing saw him finish second of eleven over 7f at Kempton beaten by a neck, so I expect both to go well here today.

Bottom weight Bowman is far more experienced after 48 races and whilst he doesn't win very often, he always seems to be in the mix, having finished 1228332 in his last seven, beaten by less than a length at Wolverhampton last time out. This, however, is tougher up two classes. Spring Bloom has won two of his last four, Balon D'Or won two starts ago and Invincible Speed has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six.

Jimmy Speaking has two wins and a runner-up finish from five and could also be involved here, although I firmly believe that we've two races in one here. The pair of LTO winners are racing for the win with the seven others aiming for that final spot in the frame with Instant Expert suggesting that Jimmy Speaking, Crimson Sand and Invincible Speed the more likely to do so. All three are relatively well drawn, but Crimson Sand hasn't been seen for over six months and might need the run...

...whilst Jimmy Speaking might well be a tad high in the weights. That said, he might well go for it from the off, based on the pace data we hold...

I'm definitely with (5) American Bay and (6) Nemov here, but I now have the conundrum of Jimmy Speaking who might be too high in the weights, Crimson Sand who hasn't raced for some time, Invincible Speed who almost ticks the boxes and Bowman who on the face of form, Instant Expert and pace should be a pick, but is the 40/1 market outsider with Bet365. All things considered, I'm going to err on the side of consistency/caution and take (3) Invincible Speed, but I'm going to have a small E/W bet on Bowman as 40/1 looks too tempting to let pass.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Gilet, (2) Antonin Dvorak & (11) Oasis Sunrise

Leg 2: (1) Twitch, (5) Wilde And Dandy & (8) Dumfries

Leg 3: (2) Baraq, (3) Red Hat Eagle & (5) Hosanna Power

Leg 4: (1) Thoughtful Gift,(5) Absolutely Buzzing & (15) Bold Suitor

Leg 5: (4) Regal Envoy, (7) Princess Shabnam & (9) Dark Side Thunder

Leg 6: (3) Invincible Speed, (5) American Bay & (6) Nemov

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck & have a great weekend!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24