Tag Archive for: David O’Meara

A Look at All-Weather Returners

In this article I am looking at some all-weather data going back to 2019 in the UK, writes Dave Renham. At this time of year, the only flat racing in Britain occurs at the six all-weather tracks, these being Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton. The first three named all race on a Polytrack surface, the last three on a Tapeta surface.

My initial research for this piece is connected with the last time out all-weather (LTO AW) course that a horse ran and linking it to the course they raced on next time. As you might expect, certain horses tend to stick to one specific AW track. The two most likely reasons for this are either they run better there, or their stable is close to the track in question (or both). I guess trainers with smaller yards have to keep a close eye on costs, and travelling less distance is one way to save money.

All Runners: Surface Same or Different

When thinking about AW runners that have run well LTO, my perception in the past has been that I would rather see a horse running at the same AW track as they raced last time. If the horse switches tracks, then I would prefer them to stick to the same surface (e.g. Polytrack to Polytrack or Tapeta to Tapeta). If a horse did not run particularly well LTO then any switch of track or surface could be seen to be a potential positive. Thinking about this now, I realise that I have not crunched any data comparing the LTO AW course to current AW course, so my starting point is to look at just that.

Let me begin by comparing all runners between the LTO AW course to today's AW course. It should be noted that for any data connected with Southwell, I have used only runs on the new Tapeta surface which was first deployed at the end of 2021. It made no sense to include previous fibresand results.

The table below displays win strike rates, ROI percentages (to both Industry Starting Price, SP, and Betfair Starting Price, BSP), as well as Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices. I have colour coded some of the A/E indices – those in green are deemed positive (0.95 or above), those in red deemed negative (0.79 or below):

 

 

The vast majority of LTO course to ‘this time’ course stats seem much of a muchness. However, the five A/E ‘positives’ each have one thing in common – these paired courses all have different surfaces:

 

 

I concede I was not expecting this. In terms of strong positives, I would have expected to see the two courses in question either being the same course, or at least having the same surface.

Sticking with Newcastle as the LTO course, the data seem to suggest that horses perform better next time when switching to race on Polytrack. Indeed, here are the exact splits for this:

 

 

There is quite strong evidence here highlighting that if a horse ran at Newcastle LTO, one would much prefer to see it switch surfaces next time to race at one of the three Polytrack courses (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield).

Let’s now compare the A/E indices of the other five courses in terms of LTO course to the today's surface and see if a surface switch is also preferable:

 

 

As an example, the first bar represents a run at Chelmsford last time and racing on Polytrack next; second is Chelmsford runners moving to Tapeta next time; and so on.

Chelmsford (Polytrack 0.83/Tapeta 0.82) and Wolverhampton (Polytrack 0.82/Tapeta 0.83) have very similar A/E figures indicating that the next time surface makes little or no difference from a value standpoint.

However, the other three tracks have slightly bigger differentials seemingly in favour of a surface switch. This is especially true for LTO runners at Southwell. This cohort, when switching surfaces to Polytrack, has produced an A/E index of 0.91 compared to 0.84 for those remaining on Tapeta. That is not quite as potent as the figures shared earlier for Newcastle, but the differences are noteworthy given the data analysed covers thousands of races.

The overall data shared to date points firmly to the fact that a surface switch offers punters better value. This has especially been the case for horses that raced at either Newcastle or Southwell LTO.

LTO Winners: Surface Same or Different

So far, I have only looked at general cases connected with all runners. But what if we restrict the research only to LTO winners? The table below has the same columns as in section one, showing win SR%, A/E indices and returns to SP and BSP. Again, I have highlighted positive and negative A/E indices – green for positive, red for negative.

 

 

Nine of the LTO to 'today' course combinations have seen LTO winners show a profit to SP; this increases to 18 when using BSP.

Looking at the negatives we see that Southwell to Chelmsford and vice versa have both produced poor results for LTO winners. This may be worth noting.

Staying with A/E indices, here are the ten ‘positives’ (0.95 or higher) grouped together:

 

 

Again, perhaps surprisingly, nine of these ten ‘positives’ involve a surface switch. In fact, if we lump together all the results of LTO AW winners, comparing horses that have switched surfaces with those that did not, we get the following results:

 

 

All the evidence is pointing to the fact that LTO AW winners that switched surface are by far the best value and also are more likely to win compared with those that haven’t switched.

Looking at the least experienced LTO winners, two-year-olds (2yos), we can see that a surface switch (regardless of which way round) is an extremely strong positive when comparing the returns to SP and BSP:

 

 

These numbers show that 2yos that won LTO on the all-weather were far better on the wallet when switching surfaces from their last run to this one. In terms of win strike rates 2yos switching surfaces won 28.3% of the time, with those racing on the same surface having won 26.9% of the time. These SR%s are quite close together, so I am thinking it is not solely the 1.4% difference in strike rates that has affected the bottom lines. My guess is that it is also due to the fact that the market has been slightly blind, offering bigger prices on these inexperienced LTO winners when they switch surface.

 

Surface Same or Different: Trainers

I now want to look at a handful of trainers who seem to have strong patterns when it comes to comparing the LTO course surface with the course surface next time.

George Boughey

George Boughey’s runners seem to have performed better on a Tapeta surface than on Polytrack. In fact, looking at his runners on the sand since 2019 (regardless of whether they ran on the AW LTO) he has shown a blind profit to BSP at all three Tapeta courses (Newcastle, Southwell, Wolverhampton). I want to compare his record with horses that raced on Polytrack LTO and are racing on it again next time, with those that ran on Tapeta LTO and stick to Tapeta in their follow-up run. Here are the splits:

 

 

The differences are stark and the ‘betting angle’ is clear. Boughey horses staying on a Tapeta surface require very close scrutiny. Profits have been made ‘blind’ to SP; to BSP the profit stands at £50.10 (ROI +22.7%). Those returning to a Polytrack surface look best avoided. Here are some additional Boughey stats worth sharing:

1. Horses that have started favourite racing on a Polytrack surface having raced LTO on the same surface have won 9 of their 35 starts (SR 25.7%) for losses to SP of £16.07 (ROI -45.9%)

2. Horses that have started favourite racing on a Tapeta surface having raced LTO on the same surface have won 25 races from 62 (SR 40.3%) for a small SP profit of £1.67 (ROI +2.7%); to BSP this improves to +£10.54 (ROI +17%)

3. Boughey 2yos racing on a Tapeta surface having raced on Tapeta LTO have won 14 races from 50 runners (SR 28%) for a profit to SP of £24.73 (ROI +49.5%); to BSP the figures read +£32.31 (ROI + 64.6%). Compare this to his 2yos going from Polytrack LTO to Polytrack this time – these figures read a dismal 6 wins from 53 (SR 11.3%) for an SP loss of £40.97 (ROI -77.3%)

 

Charlie Johnston

Charlie Johnston has only been training on his own for a couple of years, but he runs plenty of horses on the AW, so we have sufficient data to crunch. Johnston has been the reverse of Boughey when it comes to Tapeta LTO to Tapeta this time runners. He has really struggled with these horses. Of the 159 qualifiers only 14 have won (SR 8.8%) for an SP loss of £41.10 (ROI -25.9%). The loss figures would have looked much worse but for one of his winners that scored at a very unexpected 40/1. He has saddled 24 favourites with this profile and only two have won for a whopping 82p in the £ loss to SP. His second favourites have fared little better winning three from 21, losing 44p in the £.

Compare this to a near 19% strike rate with Johnston horses racing on a Polytrack surface having raced on Polytrack LTO. Backing all runners blind to BSP in this scenario would have seen one break even. Backing favourites and second favourites combined with this profile yielded excellent results unlike their Tapeta/Tapeta counterparts. These runners have scored 16 times from 46 (SR 34.8%) for an SP profit of £8.36 (ROI +18.2%).

 

David O’Meara

O’Meara has a good record with horses racing on a Polytrack surface having raced on Polytrack LTO. 153 horses have tried, of which 28 have won (SR 18.3%) for a profit of £30.12 to SP (ROI +19.7%). To BSP this improves to +£60.66 (ROI +39.7%).

Horses switching from Polytrack to Tapeta though have been only half as successful from a win perspective, passing the post first just 9.7% of the time (17 wins from 176). It should also be noted that horses making this surface switch for O’Meara, and which started in the top three of the betting, have incurred SP losses of over 24p in the £. In addition, horses that finished first or second LTO on Polytrack before switching to Tapeta next time have won just four times from 46 attempts.

 

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Concluding Thoughts

When researching huge data sets like I have for the majority of this article, the good news is we can have a fair degree of confidence with the results that are found. As a general rule, this research seems to suggest that a switch of AW surfaces from LTO run to today's run is preferable, especially when we are talking about betting value. It certainly should not be viewed as a negative. For LTO winners and especially LTO 2yo winners, a surface switch does seem a real positive. The figures shared here for both look strong and clear-cut, showing positive correlation.

So, does this mean I’ll be lumping on surface switchers this winter? No, of course not, but I will take a much keener interest in such runners than I have done in the past. Another thing this research has done is open my eyes to how punters, like me, can be blinkered in their thinking. In the third paragraph of this article, I said,

‘When thinking about AW runners that have run well LTO, my perception in the past has been that I would rather see a horse running at the same AW track as they raced last time. If the horse switches tracks, then I would prefer them to stick to the same surface (eg. Polytrack to Polytrack or Tapeta to Tapeta). If a horse has not run that well LTO then any switch of track or surface could be seen to be a positive.’

As a mathematician by trade I am a logical thinker, so what I wrote earlier made perfect sense. Well, it did at the time! Now I have researched this area I can see that, according to this recent data at least, my perception was an inaccurate one.

This process has also demonstrated to me that as punters we should be evolving and always trying to get better. If we stand still, we will fall behind the crowd. Every day is a school day!

- DR

 



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Estrange bounces back for Gillies glory

Estrange got her career back on track in no uncertain terms when running out a decisive winner of the Virgin Bet Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

Trained by David O’Meara and owned by Cheveley Park Stud, the striking grey failed to make it to the track until the August of her three-year-old career.

She made a fair impression though, bolting up by five and a half lengths at Goodwood in testing ground.

Turned out again less than three weeks later at Yarmouth in a Listed race, she failed to strike a blow and had not been seen since.

Ridden by James Doyle, Estrange was niggled along with half a mile to go as Diamond Rain moved menacingly into contention on her first run since the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.

When Estrange hit top gear, there was an inevitability about the result and she beat 7-4 favourite Danielle by a length and three-quarters.

Doyle said: “She didn’t do a lot wrong at Yarmouth. The ground was probably quicker than she wants and she ran into a wall of horses two out.

“She’s got the ability to switch off which is key in this deep ground, so I put her to sleep early and was able to ride a race on her.

“I think there’s plenty to come. She stays well and next year she’ll have plenty of options. She’s got a good engine.”

James Doyle returns on Estrange
James Doyle returns on Estrange (Nick Robson/PA)

Matthew Sigsworth of owner Cheveley Park Stud said: “Obviously we’re delighted, she’s always shown a lot of ability but it didn’t really work out for her at Yarmouth.

“We’ve been waiting for this race knowing the ground would be ideal and she’s had plenty of time since Yarmouth.

“She’s still learning and she’ll be a better filly next year when she’ll have plenty of options at home and abroad.”



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Epic Poet gets it all right in Old Borough Cup

Epic Poet secured the big-race victory he has promised all season in the Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup at Haydock.

Bought out of Freddie and Martyn Meade’s yard for 48,000 guineas last autumn, the five-year-old had run with credit on each of his first four starts for David O’Meara, notably picking up second place in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot before placing fifth in the John Smith’s Cup and fourth in the Ebor York.

The son of Lope De Vega was sent off an 11-2 shot to claim the lion’s share of £100,000 on Merseyside and after travelling ominously alongside Waxing Gibbous inside the final two furlongs, he saw out the one-mile-six-furlong trip well to get the better of that determined rival by a neck.

O’Meara said: “I’m delighted with him. He’s had a very good season without winning.

“He ran a cracker at Royal Ascot and I think he was the only horse with a high draw to get in the frame in the Ebor, so he deserved to win a big one – it’s not before time. It was a great ride from Danny as usual and it’s great to get his head in front.

“I’m not sure where we’ll go now, but I wouldn’t be put off trying him in a Pattern race – I think he’s good enough.

“Long-term, I wouldn’t mind looking at the Red Sea Turf Handicap in Saudi Arabia, which is obviously worth a lot of money.”

Master Builder and William Buick in full flight at Haydock
Master Builder and William Buick in full flight at Haydock (Mike Egerton/PA)

Master Builder came from last to first to claim top honours in the Betfair Plays Different Handicap.

David Menuisier’s grey was a couple of lengths behind the rest of the field racing down the back straight, but was still travelling well after the home turn and quickened up smartly under a well-judged ride from William Buick to secure a two-and-a-quarter-length success as the 3-1 favourite.

“I’m delighted. He did something really nice in the Melrose (at York, finished third) and we were quite confident that with a bit of cut in the ground he would improve again,” said Menuisier.

“The question mark was it was only two weeks since he ran, but we didn’t do a lot between York and here and William made it look easy really!

“The horse switches off very easily and very quickly. They went very fast early on, so I wasn’t too worried when he was behind.

“Turning in, you could see that he was picking up the bridle and was travelling better than anything else, so I thought we would be unlucky not to win from that point onwards.

“I don’t really have any plans at the moment. We have to enjoy this one and then make plans.”

Mick Appleby and Oisin Murphy combined to land the Betfair Be Friendly Handicap, with 9-4 favourite Shagraan lunging late to get up and beat Jer Batt by half a length.

“That was good, he was drawn on the wrong side really, but luckily we knew Night On Earth would go pretty quick and tow us into it, which he did. It all worked out well,” said Appleby.

“The ground was on the softer side for him, but he’s done the job well and I think he’s still improving.”

Considering future plans, the trainer added: “Oisin wants to go in the sun somewhere! We’ve thought about it and Bahrain would be right up his street, five furlongs there, but there won’t be that many races out there for him.

“We’ll have a look and see where we’re going to go. I’m sure there’ll be more suitable opportunities for him this year before we put him away.”



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Estrange has the wow factor when winning at Goodwood

David O’Meara appears to have a hugely exciting prospect on his hands given the manner in which Estrange won on her debut at Goodwood.

Owned by Cheveley Park Stud, the filly is related to St Leger winner Logician but was only making her first start at the back end of her three-year-old season in the Darley EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes.

Ridden by Danny Tudhope, she had shown signs of greenness through the race but as the pace quickened, she moved ominously into contention.

It was what she did in the final two furlongs that set her apart from the rest, however.

Moving into overdrive, she effortlessly pulled further and further clear to win by an eased down five and a half lengths from the 78-rated Lasting Love.

Tudhope told Racing TV of the 11-4 joint-favourite: “She was very professional beforehand. We were drawn out wide but she travelled round good.

“She just needed a bit of help going around the top bend and down the hill a bit, but when I got stuck into her, she came good on me – it was an impressive performance.

“She’s got a nice way of going; she doesn’t overdo things, she just does what she has to do and she makes your job a bit easier, she’s got a great mind on her. There’s a lot to like about her.”



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Hipop hooray for masterful Mullins again in the Ebor?

Hipop De Loire bids to follow in the hoofprints of Absurde when he lines up in the Sky Bet Ebor for Willie Mullins.

Famously now the champion British jumps trainer alongside his perennial Irish crown, Mullins again has his sights on the Knavesmire as he seeks a third Ebor after collecting 12 months ago, thanks in no small part to a magical Frankie Dettori ride on Absurde.

Mullins – who first struck in the big handicap with Sesenta in 2009 – could again have bookmakers running for cover with German recruit Hipop De Loire, who was second over hurdles on his stable debut at Galway and will have the assistance of Colin Keane in the saddle.

The son of American Post does have Flat credentials, having taken Listed honours when trained by Michal Borkowski, and assistant trainer Patrick Mullins is confident the seven-year-old will be competitive.

Willie Mullins looks on as Frankie Dettori celebrates Ebor glory
Willie Mullins looks on as Frankie Dettori celebrates Ebor glory (Mike Egerton/PA)

“His work at home is very good, he ran very well in a hurdle race for us at Galway. He was beaten by another highly-rated Flat horse in Jackfinbar,” he said.

“Absurde got beat in a hurdle at Galway before winning the Ebor last year, so that’s not a bad prep! He’s run on good ground on the continent, so we are hopeful he will go on it.

“He’s been given a mark of 102, which obviously says his form is strong, and like I said, his work has been good, so we feel he is competitive off that mark and having the Irish champion (jockey) Colin Keane is a big plus.

“There’s huge prize-money, people aim for it and obviously the stamina of the race opens up to jumps’ trainers as well with the mile and six around York.”

Burdett Road running in the 2023 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle
James Owen has targeted the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap for Burdett Road (Nigel French/PA)

Burdett Road has been targeting this race since a setback ruled him out of the JCB Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The four-year-old, who was a winner at Royal Ascot when trained by Michael Bell before switching to James Owen, made his reappearance on the level in the John Guest Racing Handicap at the King George meeting, finishing less than four lengths behind the winner in fifth.

Owen is sure there is improvement to come from that reappearance and said: “He’s great, I couldn’t be happier with him. I was pleased with his comeback run at Ascot, he settled well and stayed on well at the line.

“He looks to have come on massively for that, he had a racecourse gallop last week which has hopefully put him spot on. I’m happy with the draw, very happy with that, and it’s all systems go. I can’t wait for Saturday. He’s entitled to improve a lot from the Ascot run.

“This has been his target since we had that minor setback and he had a nice break. The Gredley family (owners) wanted a crack at the Ebor, it’s good prize-money and they want to support it, and hopefully try to win it.”

My Mate Mozzie’s handler Gavin Cromwell hopes to add his name to what has been a growing list of Irish-trained winners in recent years, with five of the last 10 renewals going to runners from the Emerald Isle.

My Mate Mozzie jumps over a fence in the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase at Cheltenham
My Mate Mozzie is another who has transitioned to the Flat at York (Mike Egerton/PA)

“I think he will be reasonably suited to the race and hopefully there’s a steady pace in it,” the Danestown trainer said.

“A little bit of rain would be no harm to take the sting out of the ground. As expected, it is a very competitive race, but I hope he will be competitive in it.

“I suppose I would have probably preferred to have a lower number (drawn 13), but it is what it is and we will have to leave it in the hands of Gary Carroll (who was successful aboard Sesenta). He knows him, he’s ridden him plenty, so it’s definitely a positive.”

Runner-up to the rapidly-improving Crystal Black at Royal Ascot, Epic Poet will be attempting a mile and three-quarters for the first time and trainer David O’Meara admits the trip will be an unknown for the five-year-old, who is drawn in stall 16.

Crystal Black, centre, wins the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot
Epic Poet, right, came second behind Crystal Black, centre, in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot (John Walton/PA)

“He’s in good form. I think it does (draw make an impact), if you’re wide you have to decide to go forward and hope to get in, or take back and maybe end up too far back, so I do think it will make a huge difference,” said O’Meara, whose charge was last seen finishing fifth here in the John Smith’s Cup.

“I hope he stays the trip. It’s more of an unknown than a concern – if it works, brilliant, and if it doesn’t, then we know.”

O’Meara has a second representative through Iron Lion, while Aidan O’Brien has booked James Doyle for Queenstown and Yorkshireman William Haggas looks to Naqeeb to give him what would be a cherished first Ebor.

Also of note is Brian Ellison’s Northumberland Plate winner Onesmoothoperator aiming to emulate Sergeant Cecil in adding the Ebor to his victory in the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ at Newcastle.



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Lava Stream supplemented for Irish Oaks challenge

Royal Ascot runner-up Lava Stream has been supplemented for the Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Saturday, as has course winner Hanalia.

The David O’Meara-trained Lava Stream was rated just 74 at the start of the season, but has since struck gold in handicap company at Doncaster and in a Listed race at Goodwood before performing above expectations when beaten a neck by Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot.

She has been added to the Irish Oaks field at a cost of €50,000, and owners Elwick Stud are excited to be heading to the Curragh with a “fighting chance” of claiming Classic glory.

“We just thought with the Ribblesdale form being so strong and the winner of the Ribblesdale being favourite for the Irish Oaks, we may as well take our chance,” said stud manager Gary Moore.

“The form is there, that’s the reason why we’re going. There’s only a couple of Oaks you want to win, this is one of them and you’re able to take on three-year-olds rather than waiting to take on older fillies in the Yorkshire Oaks next time.

“She goes on any ground – the ground won’t bother at all. Even if she gets placed it would be amazing – for the stud, for David, for everyone.

“We’re hoping that we’re going over there with a fighting chance.”

Owned by the Aga Khan, Hanalia has won two of her three starts for Johnny Murtagh – losing her maiden tag at the Curragh in May – and is set to step up to a mile and a half for the first time after winning the Naas Oaks Trial over an extended 10 furlongs last month.

Purple Lily looks a lively outsider for Paddy Twomey
Purple Lily looks a lively outsider for Paddy Twomey (Niall Carson/PA)

Paddy Power make Port Fairy their 11-4 favourite to provide Aidan O’Brien with an eighth win in the Curragh Classic, with the Willie Mullins-trained Lope De Lilas next in the betting at 9-2 as she prepares to carry the Wathnan Racing colours for the first time.

Lava Stream is 8-1 with the same firm, with Hanalia at 14-1, while Paddy Twomey is looking forward to saddling 25-1 shot Purple Lily, who was last seen finishing fifth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

He said: “Purple Lily has been trained very much with the Irish Oaks in mind and we’re looking forward to Saturday with her.

“It’s a step into the unknown (over a mile and a half), but her overall form is very good and the filly she ran against over a mile and a quarter (Ezeliya) ended up the top of generation in Epsom.

“I think there’s every chance she’ll stay.”

Gavin Hernon’s French Oaks fifth Dare To Dream, Port Fairy’s stablemate Content and David Menuisier’s Epsom Oaks third War Chimes also feature among 18 confirmations.



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Lava Stream team mapping out ambitious schedule

The Nassau Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks are among the high-profile options under consideration for Lava Stream following her narrow defeat at Royal Ascot.

David O’Meara’s filly has made giant strides since rounding off a four-race juvenile campaign with a narrow novice win at Ayr, making a winning reappearance in handicap company at Doncaster off a mark of 74 before successfully stepping up to Listed class at Goodwood.

The daughter of Too Darn Hot faced another hike in grade for the Group Two Ribblesdale Stakes and was priced up accordingly at 20-1, but belied her odds with an excellent effort – travelling powerfully to the lead before Aidan O’Brien’s Port Fairy battled back to prevail by a neck.

As stud manager for owners Elwick Stud, Gary Moore has been part of Lava Stream’s journey since the day she was foaled and he is excited to see what the rest of the season has in store.

He said: “She ran a blinder, didn’t she? Danny (Tudhope) thought he hit the front a bit soon and if he’d held onto her a bit longer, she would have gone past (Port Fairy), and she wouldn’t have battled back. He was a bit gutted but we were over the moon – second in the Ribblesdale is fantastic.

“She’s always travelled well in her races – she’s got quite a lot of speed. It doesn’t matter what the ground is like, she’s pretty straightforward. You just need to give her a chance early and she doesn’t half quicken.

“She kind of half plans herself, as we may as well aim high now. David was thinking about putting her in the Nassau. After that, we’ll have to go for the Yorkshire Oaks I’d say and then aim for the Fillies & Mares (at Ascot on Champions Day) at the end of the year, probably.

“David did mention supplementing for the Irish Oaks, but there’s plenty of other races. We can look at the Nassau and the Yorkshire Oaks, rather than trying to fit in the Irish one, but David might change his mind, you never know.”

Lava Stream (grey) came close to victory at Royal Ascot
Lava Stream (grey) came close to victory at Royal Ascot (John Walton/PA)

Lava Stream’s performance is a significant boost to a stud founded by the late Geoff Turnbull, with her dam Stream Song still producing at Sheraton Farm in County Durham.

“Lava Stream was always a good-looking animal, she always had that touch of class about her and I always loved her,” Moore added.

“We’ve got a Sea The Stars yearling colt that’s really nice, probably as nice as Lava Stream at this stage, and there’s a Baaeed foal who could be even better – she’s got a lot of class about her.”



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Lava Stream completes fine family double with Listed win

Lava Stream may have been sent off at 14-1 for the Weatherbys/British EBF Agnes Keyser Fillies’ Stakes but trainer David O’Meara was not surprised to see his improving filly come out on top at Goodwood.

All the talk prior to the race was about the second appearance of William Haggas’ much-vaunted Sea Just In Time, but the 1-2 favourite disappointed in sixth behind the Daniel Tudhope-ridden winner, who came home strongly to edge out Kevin Ryan’s Bolsena by a neck.

It capped a fine weekend for owners Elwick Stud, who landed a valuable handicap at Haydock on Saturday with her half-brother Iron Lion, and the future looks bright for their daughter of Too Darn Hot, who has now won her last three.

“It was obviously a very good win for Elwick Stud, who bred both her and her brother, who won yesterday at Haydock,” said O’Meara.

“She is out of one of their very good mares and we suspected she would be good enough to get involved today, but it is great to see her win and it was a brilliant ride by Danny.

“It wasn’t totally unexpected and we thought she might be good enough. We’ll take our time with her and she will improve throughout the season. She is from a lovely staying pedigree, so she is bound to improve a bit.

“She’s won a Listed race today, so the next thing will be to get her in a Group Three, but I will speak to the owners and see what they want to do.”

The other Listed action on the card was the William Hill Tapster Stakes, where Charlie Appleby’s King Of Conquest denied Roger Varian a third-straight success in the 12-furlong event.

The 11-10 favourite was partnered by William Buick, who fresh from Grade One Manhattan Stakes success at Saratoga on board Measured Time, jetted to the Sussex track to guide the five-year-old to a two-and-three-quarter lengths victory over Varian’s Aimeric.



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Aberama strikes Stewards’ Cup Gold

Aberama Gold ploughed through the Goodwood mud to win the Coral Stewards’ Cup for David O’Meara and Andrea Atzeni.

Having joined O’Meara following former trainer Keith Dalgleish’s retirement, Aberama Gold was winning his second big prize within a week having also triumphed at York last Saturday.

The six-year-old was a Listed winner at his peak for Dalgleish but had fallen down the handicap last season and O’Meara is reaping the rewards now.

The victory capped a fine week for Atzeni who won the Richmond Stakes on Vandeek and only recently announced his intention to take up a six-month contract in Hong Kong later this month.

Aberama Gold was winning a second big race in a week
Aberama Gold was winning a second big race in a week (Andrew Matthews/PA)

Aberama Gold was always travelling well in the middle group with Mr Wagyu and having seen off his fellow northern raider, it was Apollo One who emerged as the only danger.

The 2021 Ayr Gold Cup winner Bielsa was third with Mr Wagyu fading into fourth.

Atzeni said: “It was pretty straightforward for me, but the only thing I would say is that the horse drawn in 16 tried to go under (the stalls, Rumstar) and became loose. I was aware of that, but we got a nice tow into the race and my horse travelled well. It’s hard going out there, but when I let him down he picked up. It was the longest final furlong.

“The loose horse gave me something to aim at, but you never know what he might have done and I was just aware in case he came across me – luckily he didn’t.

“I never regret anything in my life and I made the decision (to ride in Hong Kong) a little while back. I’m looking forward to it and taking each day as it comes, and it’s a great result to win this race.”

O’Meara said: “His owner (Evan Sutherland) told me he would handle the ground better than most and he was spot on.

“The loose horse was a bit of a concern early doors but Andrea said he was always travelling well and kept filling up. Those around him were off the bridle while we were on it.

“We’re lucky to have him and to land such a big pot. Keith (Dalgleish) will be a loss to Scottish racing.”

O’Meara’s other runner Summerghand was withdrawn at the start and both horses could now head to the Ayr Gold Cup.

The trainer added: “The Ayr Gold Cup is a good target and it’s seven weeks to Ayr. Summerghand will join him. He got his leg over the stall and by the rules he had to be withdrawn.”



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Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!



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Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.



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