Posts

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.25 Ffos Las : Sylvias Mother @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Chased leaders, every chance disputing 2nd 2f out until over 1f out, went 2nd again inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 2 Optional Claiming Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground, worth £19407 to the winner...

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively short and simple today with a 6 yr old gelding who was a decent third (beaten by half a length) in a more valuable Class 2 contest at the Ebor meeting at York recently, but was then only 6th next/last time out at the Curragh when not getting the race run to suit him 13 days ago, so the ability is there, but things might need to fall better for him.

From a numbers perspective, trainer David O'Meara record over the last five Flat seasons with males racing over 6/7 furlongs after a short break of 4-20 days (ie rested but not rusty) currently stands at 74/511 (14.5% SR) for 60.2pts (+11.8% ROI), from which...

  • those who failed to win LTO are 61/444 (13.7%) for 71.9pts (+16.2%)
  • with the word "good" in the going description : 62/419 (14.8%) for 90.7pts (+21.7%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 56/288 (19.4%) for 54.6pts (+19%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths LTO are 42/255 (16.5%) for 69.8pts (+27.4%)
  • in 4yo+ races : 15/114 (13.2%) for 59.4pts (+52.1%)
  • off a mark (OR) of 99-111 : 9/63 (14.3%) for 106.5pts (+169%)
  • and in a claimer : 2/8 (25%) for 7.2pts (+90%)

AND...from the above...those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths, 4-20 days earlier and are now priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 26/129 (20.2% SR) for 27.6pts (+21.4% ROI) with 55% of them making the frame...

I'm well aware that stablemate Rousayan would also qualify for that stat, but our pick looks the better horse of the two and is boosted by the presence of the in-form Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Jamie rode a nice winner at Doncaster yesterday, but pitches up here instead today, which hopefully will be to our benefit.

Jamie has ridden 20 winners in 79 races (25.3% SR) over the past 30 days and a £10 stake on each of them would have realised a profit of £220 at an ROI of 27.8%, with even better numbers coming over shorter trips where judgement of the race pace is even more important, winning 13 of 44 (29.5%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs for a return of 30.93pts at an excellent ROI of 70.3%...

...prompting me to place... a 1pt win bet on Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG , prices offered by Ladbrokes & Coral respectively as of 5.05pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.45 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, smooth headway over 1f out, chased winner approaching final furlong, kept on under pressure)

We start a new month with Monday's...

8.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Isabella @ 9/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 4 Flat Fillies Handicap  for 3yo+ over 1m1f on Good to Firm ground worth £8022 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Having looked at the racecard which suggested this race could be won by a solo front runner, I looked more closely at the pace stats, which suggested our girl was the most likely of the 6 to go forward. Stall 1 with the rail is also a bonus, as is the fact that she's trained by David O'Meara.

The trainer is a positive for me, because in one of my (many!) notebooks, next to Hamilton, I have written DOM/5-9f/2-5yo/ev-11. It's hardly the Enigma Code, but what it means is that I look out for David O'Meara 2 to 5 yr old runners at Hamilton, competing over 5 to 9 furlongs at odds of evens to 11/1, because over the last five seasons, plus this one, such beasts are 21 from 97 (21.7%) for 17.2pts (+17.8% ROI), a good starting point.

I'm not suggesting you back them blindly, although you could to good effect (Alsvinder also fits this bill in the 7.15 here today), but more specifically, such runners are...

  • 17/75 (22.7%) for 25.6pts (+34.2%) racing 6-30 days after their last outing
  • 17/52 (32.7%) for 46.7pts (+89.8%) after finishing 2nd to 5th last time out
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 22.9pts (+88.1%) on good to firm ground
  • 7/25 (28%) for 13.4pts (+53.6%) in the months of July & August
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 4.29pts (+23.8%) after a defeat of just 0.25 to 2 lengths LTO
  • 3/18 (16.6%) for 3.72pts (+20.6%) ridden by today's jockey David Nolan
  • and 3 from 11 (27.3%) for 3.52pts (+32%) this year so far

As above, David Nolan takes the ride today and he's in really good touch right now with a 14 day record of 10 wins from 31 (32.3% SR) for 9.49pts (+30.6% ROI), whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 5 of 13 (38.5%) for 8.49pts (+65.3%).

Quite a few of those rides were for David O'Meara and together they are 4/17 (23.5%) for 4.14pts (+24.3%) over the last fortnight and 2/5 (40%) for 6.32pts (+126.4%) in the past week.

This is not isolated/random success/form, as the pair are 65/487 (13.4% SR) for 16.1pts (+3.3% ROI) together since the start of 2012, with Class 3 to 6 handicaps seeming their strongest suit with 49 winners from 331 (14.8%) yielding 54.5pts at an ROI of 16.5%. It is these 331 C3-6 'cappers I want to focus on here, because with today's contest at the forefront of my thoughts, they are...

  • 43/285 (15.1%) for 44.4pts (+15.6%) on the Flat
  • 44/22 (19.8%) for 102.7pts (+46.3%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1 (which roughly equate to my SotD cut-off points) 
  • 24/140 (17.1%) for 68pts (+48.6%) running off a mark (OR) in the 80's
  • 13/88 (14.8%) for 18.8pts (+21.4%) as 4 yr olds
  • 11/63 (17.5%) for 28pts (+44.5%) over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
  • 13/57 (22.8%) for 36.4pts (+63.9%) in Scotland
  • 10/55 (18.2%) for 37.4pts (+68%) from female runners
  • 8/40 (20%) for 13.67pts (+34.2%) this year alone
  • and 3 from 16 (18.75%) for 6.2pts (+38.8%) here at Hamilton

...pointing us towards...a 1pt win bet on Isabella @ 9/2 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.45 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, smooth headway over 1f out, chased winner approaching final furlong, kept on under pressure)

We start a new month with Monday's...

8.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Isabella @ 9/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 4 Flat Fillies Handicap  for 3yo+ over 1m1f on Good to Firm ground worth £8022 to the winner...

Why?

Having looked at the racecard which suggested this race could be won by a solo front runner, I looked more closely at the pace stats, which suggested our girl was the most likely of the 6 to go forward. Stall 1 with the rail is also a bonus, as is the fact that she's trained by David O'Meara.

The trainer is a positive for me, because in one of my (many!) notebooks, next to Hamilton, I have written DOM/5-9f/2-5yo/ev-11. It's hardly the Enigma Code, but what it means is that I look out for David O'Meara 2 to 5 yr old runners at Hamilton, competing over 5 to 9 furlongs at odds of evens to 11/1, because over the last five seasons, plus this one, such beasts are 21 from 97 (21.7%) for 17.2pts (+17.8% ROI), a good starting point.

I'm not suggesting you back them blindly, although you could to good effect (Alsvinder also fits this bill in the 7.15 here today), but more specifically, such runners are...

  • 17/75 (22.7%) for 25.6pts (+34.2%) racing 6-30 days after their last outing
  • 17/52 (32.7%) for 46.7pts (+89.8%) after finishing 2nd to 5th last time out
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 22.9pts (+88.1%) on good to firm ground
  • 7/25 (28%) for 13.4pts (+53.6%) in the months of July & August
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 4.29pts (+23.8%) after a defeat of just 0.25 to 2 lengths LTO
  • 3/18 (16.6%) for 3.72pts (+20.6%) ridden by today's jockey David Nolan
  • and 3 from 11 (27.3%) for 3.52pts (+32%) this year so far

As above, David Nolan takes the ride today and he's in really good touch right now with a 14 day record of 10 wins from 31 (32.3% SR) for 9.49pts (+30.6% ROI), whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 5 of 13 (38.5%) for 8.49pts (+65.3%).

Quite a few of those rides were for David O'Meara and together they are 4/17 (23.5%) for 4.14pts (+24.3%) over the last fortnight and 2/5 (40%) for 6.32pts (+126.4%) in the past week.

This is not isolated/random success/form, as the pair are 65/487 (13.4% SR) for 16.1pts (+3.3% ROI) together since the start of 2012, with Class 3 to 6 handicaps seeming their strongest suit with 49 winners from 331 (14.8%) yielding 54.5pts at an ROI of 16.5%. It is these 331 C3-6 'cappers I want to focus on here, because with today's contest at the forefront of my thoughts, they are...

  • 43/285 (15.1%) for 44.4pts (+15.6%) on the Flat
  • 44/22 (19.8%) for 102.7pts (+46.3%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1 (which roughly equate to my SotD cut-off points) 
  • 24/140 (17.1%) for 68pts (+48.6%) running off a mark (OR) in the 80's
  • 13/88 (14.8%) for 18.8pts (+21.4%) as 4 yr olds
  • 11/63 (17.5%) for 28pts (+44.5%) over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
  • 13/57 (22.8%) for 36.4pts (+63.9%) in Scotland
  • 10/55 (18.2%) for 37.4pts (+68%) from female runners
  • 8/40 (20%) for 13.67pts (+34.2%) this year alone
  • and 3 from 16 (18.75%) for 6.2pts (+38.8%) here at Hamilton

...pointing us towards...a 1pt win bet on Isabella @ 9/2 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Blue is the colour – It’s Appleby and Buick Again

Appleby and Buick were at it again as D’bai landed the Group Three John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock on Saturday.

Dutch Connection appeared to be Godolphin’s main hope of success and was sent of the 6/4 favourite. But it was the ‘boys in blue’ number two that proved superior on the day. Travelling powerfully through the race, the progressive four-year-old quickened impressively at the furlong pole before fending off the rallying Larchmont Lad, to win by a head. Tabarrak had also launched a promising challenge but faltered late on to finish a neck further back in third.

Buick, fresh from his Epsom Derby victory on Masar, said of this latest success: “He had a good winter in Dubai and won the seven-furlong handicap very well. Charlie (Appleby) used the Windsor race as a prep for this and it's worked well. He travelled really nice through and I would have liked to have had another horse to follow and to wait a little bit longer to be honest. But he stuck on well in fairness to him. He's a very talented horse.”

Appleby has his horses in tip-top shape and said: “D’bai travelled very well today and really put his head down when he had to. He holds an entry in the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and we will keep the race on our radar, but he could also head for the Group Two Lennox Stakes at Goodwood. D’bai is a Group Three winner over seven furlongs now, so it seems logical to keep him over the same distance, but the way he travels in his races suggests that a fast run six furlongs could be right up his street. We will see how he comes out of the race and talk things over.”

Dutch Connection proved disappointing, failing to quicken as the front three kicked for home. He kept on at the one pace back in fourth, and Charlie Hills must be scratching his head. The trainer would have hoped for much more following such a promising return in the Lockinge. Larchmont Lad had been ‘put-up’ as a decent each-way punt by yours truly in my Friday piece. He ran a cracker in first time cheekpieces and looks capable of winning at this grade.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Whilst Godolphin continue to make the headlines in the UK, over in America the Bob Baffert show is once again in full swing. Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Arrogate and of course the mighty American Pharoah, are just a handful of Baffert’s equine stars to have dominated the American racing scene. Having landed the Triple Crown in 2015 (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes), American Pharoah became the first racehorse to win the Grand Slam, completing a stunning haul of victories when landing the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Justify is his latest superstar, and on Saturday night the giant three-year-old chestnut colt completed the Triple Crown. “It was meant to be,” said Baffert. “I was just watching the clock. It was going to be my friend or the enemy. I was like, 'Oh Mike, Oh Mike, don't empty that tank.”

Of his place among Baffert’s best, the trainer added: “I wanted to see that horse's name up there (with the other greats) because we know he was brilliant from day one. And I am so happy for Mike Smith. There is no one more deserving than him.”

Smith, now 52, said of the winner: “This horse ran a tremendous race. He’s so gifted. He’s sent from heaven. He’s just amazing. I can’t describe the emotions going through my body right now.”

Unraced as a two-year-old, Justify has now won six on the spin in just 111 days. The jockey added: “To win six races in such a short amount of time like he’s just done is just an unbelievable feat on his part. Really, Bob has just done a tremendous job to get this horse to do what we just got done.”

He can now expect a well-earned rest, prior to a return in the autumn and a date with destiny at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.40 Market Rasen : The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 3 out, ridden after last, kept on towards finish, beaten by little more than a length)

We end a disappointing week with Saturday's...

6.45 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stonific @ 6/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  1m4f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good to firm ground worth £6728 to the winner... 

Why?

This is a very lightly raced, but in-form 5 yr old gelding. Just 5 starts to date and only two on turf so far. He was only beaten by a length as a runner-up on his turf debut at Doncaster when staying on late over 1m2f before winning last time out a fortnight ago.

That was at Haydock in a Class 4 handicap where he stayed on well again to get up by a neck, once again looking like a longer trip would suit him better. He gets that (+1.5f) today and with the yard's first choice jockey booked, more is expected today.

That jockey is Danny Tudhope and he rides this Thirsk track really well, winning 42 of 217 (19.4% SR) races here since 2011, generating profits of 104.4pts (+48.1% ROI) along the way for those who like to follow certain jockeys at certain tracks.

Trainer David O'Meara's horses are in very good nick right now too, as exemplified by 11 winners from 57 (19.3% SR) for 31pts (+54.4% ROI) over the last two weeks with those running on turf winning 11 of 51 (21.6%) for 37pts (+72.5%). Of these 51 Flat (turf) runners...

  • handicappers are 9/39 (23.1%) for 38.5pts (+98.8%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/25 (36%) for 43.3pts (+173.2%)
  • handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope are 7/18 (38.9%) for 39.8pts (+221.2%)
  • here at Thirsk : 2/8 (25%) for 19.4pts (+242.5%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope here at Thirsk : 1/3 (33.3%) for 16.05pts (+535%)

Those recent trainer/jockey figures are no purple patch nor a surprise, as since the start of the 2012 season, Messrs O'Meara & Tudhope have teamed up 1314 times in Flat (turf) handicaps, winning 217 (16.5% SR) of them for profits of 222.7pts at an decent ROI of 16.9%, from which...

  • here at Thirsk : 17/80 (21.25%) for 33.5pts (+41.8%)
  • and this season alone = 9/27 (33.3%) for 46.7pts (+172.9%) already!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stonific @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.25pm on Friday (although I've just taken 7/1 with Sky). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

O’Meara’s Firmament can prove Victoria Cup trend buster

We look forward to another ultra-competitive handicap this weekend, as Ascot plays host to the Victoria Cup.

A maximum field of 29 are expected to go to post for this valuable cavalry charge. The race has favoured four-year-olds in recent times, with six victories in the last 10. Five-year-olds also have a decent record, but it’s rare that any above this age strike gold. Weight carrying is often an issue in such handicaps, and this race is no different. Only two from the last 10 renewals has carried more than nine stone to victory. Of the first six home in last year’s race, all bar Zhui Feng carried less (he was right on the nine-stone mark).

Keyser Soze looks likely to start favourite. Trained in Newmarket by Richard Spencer, this four-year-old ran a cracker on his seasonal return at Newbury, when third in a similarly competitive 22-runner handicap. Slow out the gate that day, he found himself stuck at the back of the field for much of the race. He gradually carved his way through the pack and looked sure to win when bursting to the front less than a furlong from home. Though chinned late on, it’s hard to believe that he would not have won had he not had such a tardy start. It’s a concern that his only visit to Ascot was disappointing, when trailing home in last year’s Britannia Stakes. He also sits on that nine-stone threshold. Nevertheless, that Newbury run was eye-catching, and this fella looks progressive.

The six-year-old, Louie De Palma, is also towards the top of the market, despite having not been sighted on racecourse for almost four years. Off since a decent juvenile campaign, it would be an astounding piece of training should Clive Cox deliver him victorious in such a competitive event. Based on that two-year-old form, his handicap mark may well be generous, but backing this fella requires a monumental leap of faith from the punter.

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The David Barron-trained Kynren has the right sort of profile for this. A progressive looking four-year-old, his seasonal return at Doncaster in the Spring Mile Handicap was full of promise. Third that day, despite a poor draw, he’d battled on bravely having been isolated on the stands-rail for the first half of the race. He’s set to carry 8-11, and though his pedigree suggests he may favour softer ground, he has proved his ability to handle a quicker surface. He could go close.

Raising Sand is older than ideal at six, but his record at Ascot suggests another bold bid is likely. He’s twice a winner at the track and was placed third and fourth in his other pair of visits. He clearly performs well in these big-field events and his handicap mark (just 2lbs higher than last time) suggests he’ll go close again. He lacks a prep-run, which has proved a slight negative for this race. Nevertheless, he looks a serious contender.

Firmament would be another trend buster, but the David O’Meara-trained six-year-old is starting to look very well handicapped, and never disappoints at Ascot. He ran well off a mark of 109 throughout last year and is now down to 102. I can’t see this fella finishing out of the frame, yet he’s currently a 28/1 shot. He’s vulnerable to a young progressive sort, further down the handicap, but I’m convinced he’ll be in the shake-up.

Keyser Soze and Kynren fit the profile and look sure to go close. But I’ll be backing a pair each-way in the hope that they can become trend busters. The well-handicapped Firmament is the main bet. He loves the track, and in O’Meara and Tudhope, we have a potent combination for this type of race. I’ll also throw a few quid at Raising Sand, who also loves Ascot and remains on a fair handicap mark. Both are six-year-olds, hence vulnerable to a younger improver, but I’m convinced both will be in the mix.

Best of luck to those having a punt.

Addeybb proves a Donny Dazzler in Lincoln Romp

Addeybb proved a cut above the rest when romping to victory in the Lincoln at Doncaster.

The William Haggas-trained four-year-old cruised through the race at the head of affairs and could be named the winner from some way out. Just beyond the furlong pole James Doyle made his move and the race was quickly put to bed. Top-weight, Lord Glitters, battled on bravely to finish second, closely followed by Mitchum Swagger and old favourite Gabrial.

This was a record-equalling fourth Lincoln for Haggas, and he was clearly pleased with the performance: “The right horses were up in the front. The top-weight (Lord Glitters) is a good horse and Mitchum Swagger is a good horse, so I think the form will prove to be strong. In this ground anything can happen, but he's Pivotal and we minded him as a young horse. He won the Silver Cambridgeshire well and I hope he's going to have a good year.

“We thought we'd go for the Sandown Mile next if something like this happened, so I see no reason to change it. It's a month away and it's good timing. I think the track will suit him, it should be slow ground and it's time he got up in grade. He's done a bit at home, but he's lazy and not very good on the all-weather, so I think James got a bit of a shock today. We're trying to build a relationship with James, but he's still contracted to Godolphin. They didn't use him much last year, but they probably will this year.”

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Doyle was similarly impressed, saying: “The ground was a bit of an unknown, but he had the right pedigree to do his stuff today. He's such an unassuming horse. He goes through the motions; he's not a flashy work horse at home. I wouldn't like to say how far he could go, but he's certainly a horse on the up.”

The winner was in receipt of 8lbs from the runner-up, nevertheless, the style of success suggests he could make an impact in Group races. His pedigree, by Pivotal out of a Kingmambo mare, also suggests he’ll cope with a step-up in trip. There’s sure to be further improvement physically from the youngster and the way he travelled through testing ground makes ventures to France an interesting proposition.

Much the same can be said of Lord Glitters, a five-year-old that clearly excels in heavy ground. O’Meara enjoys his jaunts abroad and it would come as no surprise to see the grey appear on the other side of the Channel, though he appears best off a strong pace, which isn’t always forthcoming in France.

This was of course merely the opening salvo of the turf flat season, and as such, it would be unwise to get too carried away with the performance of Addeybb. Penitent was probably the classiest of the recent Lincoln winners. Having won the race in 2010, it took him another two years to land a Group race. He was also trained by William Haggas, prior to switching to David O’Meara’s yard at the beginning of the 2012 campaign.

The Lincoln – O’Meara to show that all that Glitters is Gold

I’d be lying if I said the Cheltenham Festival went well from a punting perspective. I spent the week siding with favourites that lost and opposing those that romped home. But like a phoenix rising from a Prestbury Park Pyre, I intend to get back on track, with the aid of a change of code.

The curtain lifts on a new turf flat season, with the Lincoln Handicap Saturday’s highlight at Doncaster. Run over a straight mile, the race has a habit of producing upsets. Four of the last six renewals have gone to those at odds of 20/1 or greater. There’s only been two successful favourites in the last dozen years. Richard Fahey has a strong recent record with a couple of wins in the last six. He often arrives mob-handed with his most prominent pair last year finishing fourth and fifth.

The Malton handler sends three into battle this time round, with last year’s fourth Gabrial having another crack. A former winner of the race, he’s now a nine-year-old and arrives on a 4lb lower mark than 12 months ago. He was a cracking fifth in the valuable Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day back in October. That performance came on this type of ground and a repeat would see him terrific value at 33/1. It’s four, five and six-year-olds that tend to win the Lincoln, though this fella looks sure to go close again.

Stamp Hill appears to be Fahey’s other major hope. The five-year-old needs to improve off a career high mark but will love the ground, and his trainer sounded more than hopeful in his Sporting Life column yesterday. A course winner, he needs to see out the trip and is another 33/1 shot with a fair chance.

Michael Bell’s Fire Brigade has been all the rage at the head of the market. He put in a string of solid performances as a three-year-old when only out of the frame twice in 10 starts. Up just 4lbs from last season’s concluding mark, you’d be hopeful that he’s strengthened physically since October and with ground in his favour he looks a major player.

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On last year’s form he’s closely matched with the William Haggas-trained Addeybb. This four-year-old by Pivotal will also appreciate ground conditions and finished just ahead of Fire Brigade when winning over a furlong further at Newmarket back in September. The pair are closely matched in the betting and look sure to finish close on the track. It’s pretty much guesswork as to who will have improved the most for a winter’s break. They’re hard to split on known form.

Lord Glitters was an emphatic winner of the Balmoral on this type of ground and followed that performance with a close second in a listed event at Newmarket, when probably not favoured by a small field. Winning top-weights are rare, with Babodana in 2004 the last. Yet David O’Meara’s five-year-old still looks unexposed to me and the ground looks key to his chances. I’d be surprised if he didn’t go very close.

Dark Red is capable of a big run having gone close in the Balmoral behind Lord Glitters. The ground isn’t an issue and he’s better off at the weights with his Ascot nemesis. I’d be surprised if he won but he’s another 33/1 shot with a fair chance at placing.

The James Tate-trained Via Via also looks over-priced on his performance behind Lord Glitters at Newmarket. This six-year-old, by Lope De Vega, is lightly raced and should enjoy both track and ground. His handicap mark of 101 is 6lb lower than Lord Glitters and I fancy he’ll go very close.

Taking on favourites has not gone well for me in recent weeks but I’ll be doing so again tomorrow. Lord Glitters will be tucked away in this big field and delivered as late as possible. I take him to defy top-weight and add to that impressive Balmoral success. I fancy Via Via is far to big at 33s and he’ll be my each-way punt.

Best of luck to all those having a crack at this prestigious and valuable handicap.

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2018

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Fontwell : Cabernet D'Alene @ 3/1 BOG PU at 4/1 Never travelled and always towards rear, tailed off 3 out, pulled up before last.

Next up is Thursday's...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Montague @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 5, 6f handicap (3yo) on tapeta worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old colt has been running well of late, making the frame in each of his last three outings. he won a claimer at Wolverhampton at the end of January in what turned out to be his last run for Jamie Osborne, before finishing as a runner-up in each of his two starts for new handler David O'Meara since.

David's yard has been unusually on the cold list this winter, but with 5 of his 9 runners over the last two weeks making the frame, it does look like a corner is due to be turned and a winner should be on the horizon, hopefully Montague!

It should be noted that our boy is now dropping down a grade after those two Class 4 runner-up finishes and he might well be considered a tad unlucky to have bumped into a fast improving sort completing a 4-timer last out five days ago.

There's nothing of that ilk here today and added confidence comes from the fact that since the start of 2014, David O'Meara's runners turned back out just 4 to 7 days after top 4 finish are 39/186 (21% SR) for 33.74pts (+18.1% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those include...

  • handicappers at 34/153 (22.2%) for 33.12pts (+21.7%)
  • over trips of 5f to 9f : 33/153 (21.6%) for 37.23pts (+24.3%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 6/1 : 26/85 (30.6%) for 55pts (+64.7%)
  • those beaten by 1 to 5 lengths LTO are 19/79 (24.1%) for 38.6pts (+48.9%)

AND...horses ticking all four of the above boxes are 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 30.6pts (+109.1% ROI) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Montague @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.10pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2017

Monday's Result :

2.40 Plumpton : Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG 6th at 15/8 Keen, held up in last pair, pushed along after 3 out, plugged on, never on terms. Held up way too far off the pace IMO and was never really put into the race. Seems like trial & error tactics going on with this horse, as opposed to any real plan.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Short Work @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap sprint over 6f on Polytrack worth £4,690 to the winner.

A fairly brief back to basics style approach today with a 4 yr old gelding who already has 5 wins and a place from 6 starts over today's 6 furlong trip, whilst in the 5 races with jockey Danny Tudhope on his back, he has 4 wins and a place, so the task ahead should be right up his street.

He's trained by David O'Meara, whose best figures are admittedly achieved in the North and in Scotland, but there is a niche where he excels here too. And that's with runners priced at 4/1 and shorter on the A/W here. We are only looking at 17 runners in recent times, but with 9 winners (52.9% SR) producing 16.6pts (+97.6% ROI) profit, they cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact that of those 17 runners, Danny Tudhope has 4 winners from 6 (66.6%) for 10.47pts (+174.6%).

My final point of reference is possibly normally one of your own starting points, ie the Geegeez racecards. And I'm looking at the pace first and it tells me that horses who lead fare best over this course and distance and our boy is one of three runners with the joint highest pace ranking.

These three "pacesetters" are drawn in 6, 7 and 8, so we're in the pace pocket and the pace/draw heatmap suggests leaders drawn higher get the best results, so from stall 8, we should be well placed.

...all of which points to ... a 1pt win bet on Short Work @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet & Sunbets at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Cracksman Shines Brightest on a Grey Day

It was a case of ‘like father like son’, as Cracksman provided the show-stopping performance of Champions Day 2017, to capture the Champion Stakes.

So often during his illustrious career we witnessed Frankel powering clear of the opposition, winning his races by a country-mile. And so, what a thrill to see Cracksman mimic his ‘old man’ at Ascot yesterday. It wasn’t always that way for Gosden’s talented colt, but this late season version has packed on the power and is able to maintain a relentless gallop despite testing conditions.

The question is whether he possesses the gears to be as effective on a sounder surface, but there’s no doubting that he is a machine in the mud.

Frankie Dettori had him tucked in behind the leaders in the early stages yesterday, but on turning for home the jockey struck-out for glory. Cracksman immediately put lengths between himself and the field, and with stamina aplenty powered clear in devastating fashion. He hit the line a yawning seven lengths clear of Poet’s Word, with Highland Reel third.

“He’s improved through the year and grown up a lot,” said a thrilled John Gosden. “If he was a middleweight earlier in the season, he is a light heavyweight now. He's really progressed and to do this against older horses, he's a fast-improving horse.”

Dettori was completing a stunning Champions Day double, and said of Cracksman: “I’m thrilled for everyone. It’s Frankel’s first Group One [in Europe], my first Champion Stakes, a lot of firsts and a great performance. The Champion Stakes is a colossal race, my father came close, I came close a couple of times, it’s been bugging me a long time to put it to bed with a great performance.”

He went on: “I didn’t expect Persuasive to win, I didn’t sleep very well because of Cracksman, I really felt the horse was in tip-top shape. When the rain came I was delighted because I knew it would make it a test of stamina, the headwind helped because it makes it even harder to get to the end, it stacked up towards my side, but the horse still had to deliver, and he did. I’m made up.”

When asked of next season’s selection dilemma, Dettori added: “To have Enable and Cracksman in the same year, well done John Gosden, he’s a genius. We’ll tackle the bridge next year. It’s Cracksman’s day today, let him have the glory!”

It proved to be a sensational day for Gosden and Dettori. They caused something of an upset earlier in the day, when Persuasive swooped late to take the QEII. Ribchester had looked the likely winner at the two-furlong pole, when moving stylishly to the front. But he began to flounder in the testing ground and approaching the furlong mark Dettori launched an attack aboard the grey filly. She handled conditions better than the rest for a huge victory, with Ribchester and Churchill chasing her home.

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Thrilled, though clearly surprised to have won, Dettori said: “To be honest, looking at the line-up I thought God, she'll have to run well as there were Group One winners all over the place. But the key thing was that she had got the ground.”

Gosden said of the winning filly: “He (Frankie) was saving and saving, trying to keep her together. He went for a run on the inside and got blocked, so had to take her back and swing out. She'd have been an unlucky loser. When she got out she flew down the middle of the track.”

Richard Fahey, trainer of runner-up Ribchester, cursed the ground for the defeat: “It's deja vu, the ground has beaten him again. He's a horse that's won on soft ground, but he's such a good moving horse. William (Buick) felt he came there to win and win well and he just gets blunted in the dead ground. He just doesn't put it to bed and the winner coped with the conditions better. That's twice he's been beaten in desperate conditions.”

A successful Champions Day is the icing on the cake for Gosden, having had a glorious 2017 campaign. The firepower at his disposal can only be surpassed by one other trainer. And many Flat racing fans had arrived at Ascot in the hope of seeing Aidan O’Brien break Bobby Frankel’s Group One winning tally. Team Ballydoyle have yet again set the standard for others to follow, and though Caravaggio and Churchill came mighty close, it was another outstanding filly that gave them the Group One success they so desperately sought.

Hydrangea, like Cracksman, is another talented racehorse from a Pivotal mare, and as such had no problem coping with the testing ground. The issue was whether she would see-out the trip, having never previously attempted the mile and a half. When French filly Bateel loomed large at the furlong pole, Hydrangea’s stamina was put to the test, and she responded admirably to Ryan Moore’s urgings. Pulling out plenty for pressure, she battled on bravely to win by two-lengths.

On drawing level with the record, O'Brien said: “It's incredible for everyone, they all put in so much hard work, day in day out. We're a small link in a big chain and I'm delighted for everyone, it's a magic, special day. She's by Galileo and they will not stop, their will to win is incredible. She pulled out more and it was Ryan's idea to run her as he thought there was a chance she'd get the trip. We weren't sure, but she did.”

Moore echoed the thoughts of his trainer, when saying: “What Aidan O'Brien has done this year is remarkable and it is a massive team effort. Everyone who looks after these horses, they put in so much time. The filly has been on the go all year and has got better and better. I thought she had a good chance. I'm delighted for Aidan.”

O’Brien also landed the opener, when Order Of St George produced a battling performance to take the Long Distance Cup. He needed every yard of the straight to get his nose ahead of Jess Harrington’s Torcedor. John Gosden’s well-fancied three-year-old Stradivarius, produced another performance full of promise in finishing strongly to take third. He remains a young horse with a huge future.

Harry Angel’s Ascot hoodoo continued when he made it 0-4 at the track in the Champions Sprint Stakes. He’d travelled wonderfully well through the race, but possibly struck for home a little early at the two-pole. The writing was on the wall as he entered the final furlong, with Tasleet attacking to his right and Librisa Breeze to his left. As Harry crumbled it was Dean Ivory’s grey Librisa, that found plenty for pressure, pulling a length clear of Tasleet at the post. Caravaggio got going too late, but managed to pip Harry A for third.

Winning jockey Robert Winston told ITV Racing: “It means a hell of a lot. My career was finished, only for this horse, and that's being honest. I was packing up last year, I gave my notice to Dean, but this horse and Mr Bloom have kept me going. Dean is a great man to ride for, he has great staff and brilliant owners, including Mr Bloom.” Of the winner, Winston added: “He'd get a mile-plus, but has so much natural speed and is so genuine. I know I have been criticised a couple of times this year when he should have won, but that's the way you have to ride him.”

For Ivory, a winner on Champions Day was clearly a huge thrill: “I could not believe it. The ground and everything went right for us. He has been off a long time, seven weeks, and he has been so unlucky this year. We have got the luck when it mattered. That was the hardest field in the last 10 years and to come out and do it like that, I'm thrilled. He is a horse that has never had a clean run. This year is his year and I've seen him grow into a proper horse. Robert Winston believes in the horse as much as we do.”

The final race of the day went to yet another grey, when Lord Glitters came with a thrilling late rattle to nab Europe’s most valuable handicap, the Balmoral. Stuck out the back with nowhere to go, Daniel Tudhope switched the David O’Meara trained four-year-old to the wide outside with just a furlong remaining. In the clear, he thundered home, hitting the line a neck ahead of yet another Gosden runner, Gm Hopkins.

It was a suitably thrilling finale to an exhilarating Champions Day.

Daniel Tudhope – Follow the North Star

I spoke last week of the burgeoning reputation of Patrick Joseph McDonald on the northern racing circuit. I also gave a brief mention for Daniel Tudhope, and I thought I’d expand on that a little with today’s piece.

Tudhope grew up in Irvine, Ayrshire, an area famed for its golf courses and views from the coast of the beautiful Isle of Arran. In previous interviews he has spoken of his disappointing academic performance at school, and of a surprising suggestion from a career’s officer that resulted in a move from Scotland to Yorkshire.

Despite there being no family connection with horses, Tudhope headed to the Northern Racing College at Doncaster. He saw it as a great opportunity, with a severe lack of job prospects back at home. Having never sat on a horse, it was quite a culture shock for the young 16-year-old, but he certainly grabbed the chance with both hands.

He became a successful apprentice with Declan Carroll in Yorkshire, though a broken collar-bone cost him the opportunity of becoming Champion Apprentice in 2005.

He had a terrific campaign in 2006 when breaking through the half-century winners mark. But by 2010 the jock had struck on hard times, and without a stable position he could easily have slipped out of the industry. A conversation with Silvestre de Sousa led to him riding-out at David O’Meara’s yard, and the rest as they say is history.

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The wonderful Blue Bajan gave both Tudhope and O’Meara their break-through top level victory, when winning the Group Two Henry II Stakes at Sandown. He had previously finished a close second in the Yorkshire Cup on the Knavesmire.

Penitent brought further Group success when arriving at the yard in 2012. Formerly with William Haggas, the switch to Middleham Park Racing took the six-year-olds form to a new level. O’Meara and Tudhope headed south to land the Group Two Bet365 Mile at Sandown, and later that year captured another Group Two, this time at Newmarket, when winning the Nayef Joel Stakes. Penitent then travelled to France and ran a cracker at the highest level, finishing runner-up to Gordon Lord Byron in the Prix de la Foret.

With Haydock’s Sprint Cup just a few days away, it was that race that took the partnership to the next level. O’Meara produced the classy three-year-old G Force to win the Group One in 2014, defeating an older, yet no less talented Gordon Lord Byron in the process. Tudhope timed his challenge to perfection, having held the youngster towards the rear of the field for most of the race.

Just a month later the pair were at it again, the horse on this occasion was Move In Time. Tudhope rode the six-year-old sprinter to a thrilling victory in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp, getting his nose in front just yards from the line.

Last year it was Mondialiste that brought International success, with a stunning victory in the Arlington Million. Under a power-packed ride from Tudhope, the six-year-old got the better of Deauville down the home-straight to win by a neck. It was a truly thrilling experience for jockey and trainer, enhancing the reputation of both on the international stage.

On a personal level, Tudhope is having another cracking season in the saddle. He currently lies third in the title race, with an 18% strike-rate and exceptional level-stake profit per rides. He’s the man to follow in the north, whether saddling up with boss O’Meara, or guesting for others, such as Tim Easterby on Monday, when partnering the 10/1 winner Hope Solo at Ripon. Indeed, his record on three-year-olds is eye-popping, with a 31% winning strike-rate from just 125 rides.

Like many jockeys, at 5ft 8ins Tudhope is a slave to scales, and time spent sweating in the sauna has become a daily ritual. But in recent years the effort has paid huge dividends. His partnership with David O’Meara goes from strength to strength. He’s rapidly become one of Yorkshire’s finest in the saddle. And long may it last.

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Ayr : Donnachies Girl @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 Led narrowly, edged right over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed when carried left inside final furlong, kept on, no extra towards finish.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clenymistra @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly steps back up to 1m2f here, a trip she has only run at twice before, finishing 2nd on the A/W at Chelmsford last October and then winning on Good to Firm (like today) at Redcar on her return from a 214 day break from racing.

That win at Redcar was also the only previous time she'd been ridden by today's jockey, Danny Tudhope. So we've got positives re: trip, going and jockey, what about her trainer?

Well, if Danny Tudhope's riding, you won't be overly surprised to find she's trained by David O'Meara, who has an excellent record in handicap contests here at Beverley, standing at 39 winners from 204 (19.1% SR) for profits of 39.2pts (+19.2% ROI)...

And with today's contest in mind, those 204 runners include...

  • since 2013 : 33/158 (20.9%) for 68.74pts at an ROI of 43.5%
  • those priced at 9/1 and shorter : 37/155 (23.9%) for 50.82pts (+32.8%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 23/120 (19.2%) for 20.86pts (+17.4%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 18/84 (21.4%) for 10.67pts (+12.7%)
  • those last seen 6 to 10 days ago : 15/44 (34.1%) for 25.87pts (+58.8%)
  • over the 1m2f course and distance : 8/43 (18.6%) for 14.59pts (+33.9%)

AND...since 2013 at odds of 9/1 and shorter on Good/Good to Firm : 26/112 (23.2% SR) for 50.34pts (+45% ROI), from which...

  • Danny Tudhope is 13/52 (25%) for 15.81pts (+30.4%)
  • those who last ran 6-10 days earlier are 10/25 (40%) for 30.24pts (+121%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 4/21 (19.1%) for 3.84pts (+18.3%)

...quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Clenymistra @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley...

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!