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Lord Glitters goes for Jebel Hatta gold on ‘Super Saturday’

David O’Meara is pleased Lord Glitters has no penalty to carry when he goes for Group One glory in the Jebel Hatta at Meydan on ‘Super Saturday’.

The popular eight-year-old grey had 3lb extra to carry when going down by only three-quarters of a length by Zakouski in the Group Two Al Rashidiya over this nine furlongs on his latest start.

He had beaten Charlie Appleby’s charge by three lengths when they met on level terms in the Singspiel Stakes over the course and distance in January.

“He’s in good form and he likes the track,” said O’Meara.

“He ran well there last time out with his penalty which he won’t carry this time, so I’m really happy with him.”

Lord Glitters is no stranger to Group One success, having taken the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2019.

Godolphin have won six of the last eight renewals of the nine-furlong turf feature, and three contenders this year include the Appleby-trained pair of Al Suhail and Art Du Val.

Appleby told www.godoplhin.com: “Al Suhail had a setback after winning at Newmarket and subsequently we have had our eye on a Dubai campaign for him.

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“His preparation has gone well and he did a nice racecourse gallop at Meydan last week. We are hoping that he can run a decent race with an eye on going on to the Group One Dubai Turf later in the month, so we expect him to come on for the run.

“We have no doubt about his ability to run at this level, but he just needs to keep his head together.

“Art Du Val ran a creditable race over this course and distance in the Singspiel Stakes and was also very competitive in the Zabeel Mile last time out.

“We think the return to nine furlongs is going to suit and, while he doesn’t look out of place in the field, he will need to up his game again to be in the mix.”

Royal Marine, trained by Saeed bin Suroor, is Godolphin’s other contender.

“Royal Marine always works well in the mornings, when he shows some real class, but we would like him to start displaying it again in his races,” said Bin Suroor.

“He has won at this level in the past, but it’s a case of seeing how he gets on.”

Nigel Tinkler has his fingers crossed Acklam Express will stay the six furlongs of the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint.

The three-year-old has only run over five furlongs, but gave the impression the extra distance would be within his compass when staying on well to finish second behind Equilateral on his Meydan debut two weeks ago.

“We’re keeping our fingers crossed he’ll get the six. If he does, he’ll run well. He was staying on last time and you never know unless you try it,” said Tinkler.

“The horse is enjoying it. Rowan Scott is riding him out every day and he’s very well and we’re looking forward to Saturday.

“If he does gets six, it opens up a lot of options throughout the year.”

Godolphin are again three-handed, with Royal Crusade and Man Of Promise representing the Appleby team.

Appleby said: “Royal Crusade won a strong sprint in France on his latest start and any sign of his three-year-old form will make him very competitive. We have one eye on the Al Quoz Sprint for him and we are hoping for some marked improvement on whatever he does here.

“Man Of Promise has done nothing wrong in his short career and was very impressive in the Dubai Sprint. He is stepping up to Group company and needs to find a bit more again, which we are quietly confident he will do based on his work at home.”

Bin Suroor is responsible for Final Song and said: “Final Song ran a very good race over this distance last time out and six furlongs seems to be her trip now. I have been pleased with her work and I’m looking for another good result.”

Bin Suroor is looking forward to running Dubai Mirage on dirt for the first time in round three of the Al Maktoum Challenge.

The son of Dubawi has filled the runner-up spot in turf handicaps on both his Meydan starts this year and won on his only previous all-weather outing, at Kempton in June.

Bin Suroor said: “Dubai Mirage has run well on the turf so far this season, finishing second on both occasions, and we wanted to give him a chance on the dirt. This will be a very tough race, but he has been going nicely at home.”

Dubai Mirage can expect strong competition from the likes of Doug Watson’s Thegreatcollection, runner-up in the two previous rounds, and the Fawzi Abdulla Nass-trained Salute The Soldier, winner of round two and third in round one.

Lord Glitters sparkles for O’Meara at Meydan

Lord Glitters returned to his best when producing a power-packed finish to land the Group Two Singspiel Stakes at Meydan.

The David O’Meara-trained grey was winning for the first time since the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2019 – with that Group One success coming three months after he had finished third in the Dubai Turf.

That nine-furlong heat on World Cup night could again be on the agenda, after Lord Glitters ran out a convincing winner over that distance in the hands of Adrie de Vries. The Dutch jockey was replacing Danny Tudhope who was unable to make the trip to Dubai.

The eight-year-old only had two horses behind him turning into the straight, but once he hit top gear it was a one-horse race.

Lord Glitters powered to victory by three lengths from Zakouski, with Dream Castle a length and a half away in third place.

Speaking from home, North Yorkshire-based O’Meara said: “It’s a mighty performance – an eight-year-old and still running to that level. It’s brilliant and he was given a great ride by Adrie de Vries.

“He ran a lovely race in Bahrain in their big race before Christmas, finishing his race very well. We were hoping he was in good form going out there and that he would be competitive. It worked out very well for him.

“The last time he ran at Meydan in the Dubai Turf he ran Almond Eye and Vivlos quite close, giving them their fillies’ allowance.

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“He’s actually run a really good race there before so he copes with the track well.”

Lord Glitters could well race again before having a second crack at the Dubai Turf on March 27.

O’Meara added: “You’d like to think the Dubai Turf would be the target. There’s a bit of water to go under the bridge before then. There might be a race in February and hopefully on to World Cup night. He’s staying over in Dubai.”

Lord Glitters earned a quote of 6-1 for the Dubai Turf with Paddy Power.

Military March was a disappointment on his first run for Godolphin and trainer Saeed bin Suroor since his fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in June, finishing eighth.

Frankie Dettori celebrates victory on his return to Dubai
Frankie Dettori celebrates victory on his return to Dubai (Dubai Racing Club)

However, Bin Suroor and jockey Frankie Dettori made amends on Land Of Legends in the Group Two Al Fahidi Fort – the last of the five races on the card in which they teamed up together.

It was a first success in Dubai for Dettori since he won the Godolphin Mile on African Story for Bin Suroor in 2012.

The Italian produced the five-year-old to perfection to lead inside the final furlong and land the spoils by three-quarters of a length and the same from the Charlie Appleby-trained pair of D’Bai and Glorious Journey.

Dettori – who performed his trademark flying dismount – said: “I had the perfect trip. I was sat behind the leaders and got the split at the right time.

“It was a good effort, but everything fell right. We had a good draw and I managed to get him into a nice rhythm and he won.

“Honestly, I’m delighted. We had high hopes all night and we managed to get one in our last race together today, so I’m pleased for Saeed and the team. It’s nice to be back.”

Bin Suroor said: “Isn’t it great to see Frankie back, winning races and riding as well as ever. We have been friends for about 27 years.

“This horse has been working very well and showing lots of speed at home, so we were hoping for a big run but he will improve for that because he had been off since March.”

Dettori completed a double when steering the Charlie Hills-trained Equilateral to victory in the Dubai Dash.

Always prominent as Caspian Prince helped set a scorching pace, Equilateral quickened nicely to follow up his victory in the race from 12 months ago.

Of being back in Dubai, where he has enjoyed so much success for Bin Suroor in the royal blue of Godolphin, Dettori, who celebrated his 50th birthday in December, said: “I’m really enjoying my time here, maybe because I’m running out of years but I’m trying to taking it all in.

“Most people are locked in their houses doing nothing, and at least I get to do what I love. I am going to stay here in the United Arab Emirates until Super Saturday (March 6).”

Military Law took round one of the Group Two Al Maktoum Challenge for trainer Musabbeh Al Mheiri in the hands of Antonio Fresu and was cut to 6-1 from 10-1 for the Dubai World Cup with Paddy Power.

Switzerland caused a 50-1 upset in the Group Three Dubawi Stakes beating Gladiator King, his Satish Seemar-trained stablemate and the 1-2 favourite, into third place under Tadhg O’Shea.

Sovereign joins stellar field for Bahrain International Trophy

Five Group One winners feature in a final field of 14 for this month’s £500,000 Bahrain International Trophy after the supplementary stage closed.

Aidan O’Brien is set to saddle 2019 Irish Derby hero Sovereign, last year’s Queen Anne Stakes winner Lord Glitters represents David O’Meara, dual Canadian International Stakes winner Desert Encounter runs for David Simcock – and Saeed bin Suroor calls on 2019 Jebel Hatta victor Dream Castle.

Adding further top-level interest on November 20 is the Japanese-trained mare Deirdre (Mitsuru Hashida), whose big wins include last year’s Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

Barney Roy has suffered a minor setback and will miss the race, but Godolphin will still be doubly represented – with Mark Johnston’s Royal Ascot winner Dark Vision joining Dream Castle.

Supplemented at a cost of £10,000, Sovereign will be O’Brien’s first ever runner in Bahrain.

The Ballydoyle trainer said: “Sovereign is a strong mile-and-a-quarter horse. He is a very strong galloper who likes to go forward in his races, and we think the Bahrain International Trophy will suit him.”

John Gosden saw Turgenev finish second in the inaugural race last year and will be hoping to go one better with Global Giant, who will be ridden by Frankie Dettori for owner HH Shaikh Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa.

Andrew Balding and King Power Racing were sixth with Pivoine in 2019 and are back this year with Bangkok – while Lady Wannabe (Fozzy Stack), Certain Lad (Mick Channon), Pogo (Charlie Hills) and Quest The Moon (Sarah Steinberg) complete the European challenge.

Two spots in the field are guaranteed for locally-trained horses, and the two Bahraini-based contenders are confirmed as Port Lions (Fawzi Naas) and What A Welcome (Hesham Al Haddad).

Shaikh Salman bin Rashed Al-Khalifa, executive director of Rashid Equestrian & Horseracing Club, said: “We are absolutely delighted with the class of horses that we have attracted to this year’s Bahrain International Trophy.

“To have five individual Group One winners in the field – compared to only one last year – shows the leap in quality. We are very grateful to the trainers and owners for placing their trust in Bahrain, and we very much look forward to welcoming them.”

O’Meara mulling QEII date for Lord Glitters

David O’Meara is considering returning Lord Glitters to the scene of his greatest triumph, in next month’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot.

The evergreen seven-year-old has been out of luck since claiming last year’s Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he has run a number of solid races in defeat – including when finding only Addeybb too strong in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr on Saturday.

O’Meara was satisfied with that effort and hopes Lord Glitters’ previous good form at Ascot would be a plus if he were to return to Group One company there.

O’Meara said: “It was a good run by Lord Glitters at Ayr, and I was happy. I thought for a moment we were going to get there, but Addeybb just got first run on us.

“Where we go next, I’m not completely sure. He is in the QEII, and we could go there.

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“Palace Pier will be very hard to beat, but Lord Glitters loves it there and he could pick up the pieces.”

Lord Glitters has run over further than a mile on each of his last three starts, but O’Meara believes dropping back to that trip would be no issue.

He added: “He has been running over further lately, but he would be fine going back to a mile.

“He won the Strensall Stakes at York a couple of years ago, and we then dropped him back to a mile, and he was fine.”

Summerghand could make his next appearance in the Group Three John Guest Bengough Stakes at Ascot (Dan Abraham/PA)
Summerghand could make his next appearance in the Group Three John Guest Bengough Stakes at Ascot (Dan Abraham/PA)

O’Meara may send his Stewards’ Cup hero Summerghand to Ascot on Saturday week for the Group Three John Guest Bengough Stakes.

The Lope De Vega gelding was last seen finishing down the field on his Group One debut in the Sprint Cup at Haydock earlier this month.

O’Meara added: “It was a big step up from Newmarket to the Sprint Cup at Haydock, but I thought he ran OK.

“He is in a Group Three in Ireland on Saturday, but he might go to Ascot for the Bengough Stakes. We will keep an open mind.”

Eagles By Day, left, is likely to be put away for the remainder of the campaign (Dan Abraham/PA)
Eagles By Day, left, is likely to be put away for the remainder of the campaign (Dan Abraham/PA)

There will be no trip to Australia for the Lexus Melbourne Cup at Flemington on November 3 for Eagles By Day, with O’Meara considering drawing stumps for the season with the son of Sea The Stars.

He added: “Eagles By Day will probably have a break now for the rest of the year. I liked his run the first day for us at York (won the John Smith’s Silver Cup), then I thought he ran well enough in the Goodwood Cup.

“I’m not sure he totally stayed the trip in his next two starts, in the Lonsdale Cup and Doncaster Cup. We might just come back a little bit in trip with him next year.”

Summerghand heads weights for Ayr Gold Cup

Stewards’ Cup winner Summerghand heads the weights for the QTS Ayr Gold Cup following the five-day acceptance stage.

Fourth in the six-furlong handicap showpiece 12 months ago, David O’Meara’s smart sprinter is rated 1lb higher this time – but is burdened with 11lb more having to carry 9st 13lb.

Should he take his chance, Summerghand would at least be in calmer waters as he contested the Group One Sprint Cup at Haydock last time out, when eighth to Dream Of Dreams. Among other possibles for O’Meara are Gulliver, Young Fire, Cold Stare and Arecibo.

Stone Of Destiny, trained by Andrew Balding, has a 5lb penalty for his victory in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday, while the Kingsclere trainer can also call on King’s Lynn, owned by the Queen.

The three-year-old shaped promisingly when second to the exciting Starman at Doncaster last month, on his first start since September.

Mr Lupton bagged a valuable prize at the Curragh on Sunday and is in line for a quick reappearance for Richard Fahey, with Tim Easterby considering the race for his Great St Wilfrid Handicap scorer Staxton.

Mick Appleby’s Danzeno, the William Haggas-trained Nahaarr and Atalanta’s Boy, from David Menusier’s stable, are just a few of the others in contention after 162 hopefuls stood their ground.

There are the Silver and Bronze Cups as consolation races for those who miss out on the big one.

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.00 Newmarket : Matewan @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, driven to lead narrowly inside final furlong, headed final strides and beaten in a photo by a short head)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

As we generally do, our first port of the call is the Geegeez racecard, which tells us so much about a runner without changing pages or looking things up.

We see that we've got a 5yr old in excellent form including a win last time out 15 days ago. He hails from a yard with a good record at this track (C1, C5) and will be ridden by a jockey in good form (14) who has also done well at this venue (C1, C5).

Tabaahy also featured three times on my angles report (hence the 3) and I've opened them up for you to see that my report parameters specify a high A/E and an even higher IV figure allied to a strike rate of at least 20%.

Those details plus the jockey & trainer stats are pretty self explanatory and could be enough to form the basis of a bet, but let's take a closer look at the living elements at play today.

The horse has four wins and two places from just eight runs on the All-Weather, including of relevance today...

  • 3w, 2pl from 7 handicaps
  • 3w, 2pl from 6 at 5yrs old
  • 3w, 2pl from 6 at 5f
  • 3w, 1pl from 6 at Class 5
  • 3w, 1pl from 5 left-handed
  • 3w, 1pl from 4 sub-6/1 runs
  • 3w, 1pl from 4 in fields of fewer than 9 runners
  • and 2w, 1pl from 3 off a mark (OR) in the 70's

And next up is the jockey Adam McNamara, whose 12-month record at Lingfield is no flash in the pan, as shown by his record over the past near-30 months...

And of those 39 rides, Adam is...

  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 23.03pts (+82.2%) at evens to 10/1
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 33.25pts (+107.3%) at Class 5/6
  • 7/25 (28%) for 47.68pts (+190.7%) on male runners
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 31.42pts (+165.4%) on those rested for 6-20 days
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 48.34pts (+345.3%) on 4/5 yr olds
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 42.3pts (+846%) in fields of 7 or fewer runners

...whilst he is 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 18.91pts (+157.6% ROI)) on Class 5/6 males sent off at Evens to 10/1.

And finally to the trainer, David O'Meara, whose numbers on the A/W here at Lingfield since the start of 2019 currently stand at...

Again we have excellent strike rate, profit/ROI and A/E figures and a dig down into those 54 runners show that David's charges are...

  • 13/39 (33.3%) for 50.2pts (+128.7%) at odds of Evens to 8/1
  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 38.97pts (+84.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 50.14pts (+218%) over 5/6 furlongs
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 25.14pts (+132.3%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 6/20 (30%) for 23.82pts (+119.1%) with those last raced 11-20 days earlier
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 18.77pts (+144.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.71pts (+130.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.66pts (+141.4%) over this 5f course and distance...

...whilst in handicaps over 5/6 furlongs at Evens to 8/1, they are 9 from 16 (56.25% SR) for 57.13pts (+357.1% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Coral at 8.10am Friday (and still available an hour later), but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!