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Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.00 Nottingham : Music Seeker @ 6/1 8th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on inside, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after, behind and eased final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG

...in the 9-runner, Group 3, Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner... 

Why?...

Keeping it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old colt who broke his UK duck on this very track last season and was also a winner of a Listed race at Deauville as a 2 yr old, beating one of today's main rivals in the process. He won a Listed race LTO 22 days ago, which took his UK record to 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts, suggesting that at the very least, we should get a run for our money (albeit late in the piece!)

From those nine previous UK runs, he has...

  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in July/August
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 1 win from 3 over a mile
  • 1 from 1 here at Goodwood
  • 1 from 1 under jockey PJ McDonald
  • 1 from 1 in August
  • and 1 from 1 going right handed

Trainer Paul Cole is neither prolific, nor does he comes to Goodwood that often, but over the last three seasons his runners over 1m1f and shorter have won 27% more often than expected via 4 wins from 16 (25% SR) that have generated 2.53pts profit at an ROI of 10.12%. These numbers aren't earth shattering, admittedly, but that A/E figure of 1.27 is certainly interesting, especially given the horse's own obvious claims.

That said, of that 4 from 16 record, there are...

  • 3/10 (30%) from those with a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/7 (42.9%) racing after a break of 21-30 days
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in August
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) shorter than 4/1 (which is where I expect him to end up)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Glorious Goodwood Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 2nd Aug 2019)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FOUR with four LIVE ITV races, including the Glorious Stakes, Betfred Mile, plus the Group Two King George Stakes.

DAY FOUR - Friday 2nd August 2019

1.50 – Theo Fennell Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f

10/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
10/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
9/10 – Won over at least 7f before
8/10 – Officially rated 100+
7/10 – Irish-bred
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – French-trained winners (3 of the last 4)
3/10 – Had won at the track before
2/10 – Winning favourites
Pretty Baby (3/1 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

2.25 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

16/17 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
14/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
13/17 – Had not won a Group 3 or better before
12/17 – Had won at least twice during their career
12/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/17 – Ran at either Newbury (2), Goodwood (2) or Newmarket (4) last time out
5/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Regal Reality (10/1) won the race 12 months ago
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 1-3 (inc)
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-6 (inc)

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Note: 2012 was a dead-heat


3.00 –
Unibet Golden Mile (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/17 – Had raced 3 or more times that season
14/17 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
11/17 – Never raced at Goodwood before
11/17 –Priced 7/1 or shorter
10/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Carried 8-13 or less
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
12 of the last 14 winners were drawn 9 or lower
12 of the last 14 runnings saw the first two both drawn in 11 or lower
Seniority (9/2 jfav) won the race 12 months ago

3.35 - Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV –

17/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Had won over 5f before
14/17 – Didn’t win last time out
13/17 – Had won 4 or more times in their careers
12/17 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
12/17 – Ran at York, Ascot or Newmarket last time out
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
7/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
6/17 – Had only won at Listed Class before
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by the Hills yard
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Battaash (8/11) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Horses from stall 4 and 8 have won 4 of the last 12 runnings

 

 

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Glorious Goodwood Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 3rd Aug 2019)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FIVE with four LIVE ITV races, including the Gordon Stakes and the super-competitive Stewards' Cup.

DAY FIVE - Saturday 3rd August 2019

1.50 – Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

15/15 – Didn’t win their last race
13/15 – Raced at Goodwood previously
14/15 – Had won over 6f previously
11/15 – Won at least 3 times during their career
12/15 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/15 – Finished 4th or worse in their last race
11/15 – Favourites unplaced
9/15 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
7/15 – Winning Distance - 1 ¼ lengths or more
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
7/15 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
3/15 – Trained by Clive Cox
3/15 – Favourites (one in the last 13 years)
1/15 – 3 year-old winners
Tommy G (10/1) won the race 12 months ago
12 of the last 13 winners carried 9-0 or more
9 of the last 13 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
Horses from stall 3 has won 2 of the last 10 runnings

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2.25 – The Qatar Summer Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

15/16 – Had won at least twice before
13/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/16 – Carried 9-7 or more
9/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Rated between 90-100
9/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
4/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
Horses from stalls 12, 13 & 14 have good e/w records in recent years
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 10-14 (inc)
Sir Chauvelin (12/1) won the race 12 months ago

3.00 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f ITV

14/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/16 – Had raced 2 or more times already that season
12/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Tom Queally
8 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4-6 (inc)
Pilaster (11/4) won the race 12 months ago

3.40 – Unibet Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

16/16 – Had won over 6f before
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
15/16 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
12/16 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
11/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Placed favourites (top 4)
10/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/16 – Raced at Goodwood before
8/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/16 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Winning 3 year-olds
Gifted Master (10/1) won the race 12 months ago
11 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure draw

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Glorious Goodwood Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 1st Aug 2019)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day THREE with four LIVE ITV races, including the Richmond Stakes, Lillie Langtry Stakes, plus the Group One Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares.

DAY THREE - Thursday 1st August 2019

 

1.50 – Unibet Handicap Cl2 1m2f ITV

15/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
15/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¾ lengths or less
15/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Rated between 91-99
12/16 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/16 – Had raced at Goodwood before
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston (3 of last 6 runnings)
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
Stall 14 has been placed in 5 of the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from stall 11 or lower
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4-7 (inc)
Communique (7/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago

2.25 – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

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16/17 – Had won 1 or 2 races before
16/17 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
15/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
14/17 – Never raced at Goodwood before
14/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Placed last time out
12/17 – Won by a Feb or March foal
12/17 – Won their previous race
8/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (inc last 6 of last 9 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 2
9 of the last 13 horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 6
11 of the last 13 winners came from stall 2-7 (inc)
King Of Yulong (5/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago

3.00 – Qatar Gordon Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

16/16 – Won between 1-3 times before
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Winning distance – neck or shorter
8/16 – Went onto run in the St Leger
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
7/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Went onto win the St Leger
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4-10 (inc)
The horse from stall 7 has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
Horses from stalls 4,7 & 10 have won 8 of the last 12 runnings
Cross Counter (7/4) won the race 12 months ago

3.35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV

15/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
14/15 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Winning Favourites
11/15 – Had won a Group One race previously
11/15 – Won between 2-4 times before
9/15 – Had won over 1m2f previously
4/15 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
3/15 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
Wild Illusion (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
10 of the last 13 winners were drawn 7 or lower
Stalls 1, 6 and 7 have won 9 of the last 13 renewals

 

 

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Glorious Goodwood Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 31st July 2019)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We get going on Day TWO with four LIVE ITV races, including the Molecomb Stakes and the Group One Sussex Stakes.

 

DAY TWO - Wednesday 31st July 2019

1.50 – Unibet Goodwood Handicap Cl2 2m5f ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Had 3+ runs already that season
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat
10/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat
10/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/17 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Lil Rockerfeller (11/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 20
9 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

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2.25 –Unibet Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
10/15 – Winning favourites
10/15 – Rated between 84-93
10/15 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
8/15 – Won over 1m4f previously
8/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
5/15 – Won their last race
4/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15– Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/15 – Winning favourites
Soto Sizzler (20/1) won the race 12 months ago
10 of the last 13 winners came from stall 10 or lower

 

3.00 – Markel Insurance Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

15/17 – Had won over 5f before
13/17 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
11/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
12/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 lengths or less
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
Horse from stall 1 has finished in the top 3 in 7 of the last 10 runnings
Rumble Inthejungle (5/1) won the race 12 months ago

3.35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/18 – Won over 1m before
15/18 – Had won 4 or more times during their career
14/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
11/18 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/18 – Has Won a Group One previously
10/18 – Winning favourites
9/18 – Aged 3 years-old
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Aged 4 years-old
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 3-5 (inc)

 

 

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Punting Angles: Goodwood Racecourse

With the Goodwood May festival upon us it seems as good a time as any to apply a little focus to the Sussex track, writes Jon Shenton. The hope is we'll discover a few snippets of info along the way to boost our chances of a profit at the course over the rest of the summer and beyond.

Racing has been an integral part of Goodwood history since 1802. The track is synonymous with the Glorious Goodwood festival with its three Group 1 races taking a prominent position in the racing calendar. There’s much more to racing at the course than that shiny centrepiece, however, and there are plenty of other meetings and notable races to enjoy throughout the flat season.

As usual, let’s start with the training performances at the track.

Goodwood trainers

The table below shows the trainers who have high-quality records at Goodwood. The data within relate to runners with a maximum SP of 20/1, and are sorted by descending A/E and include all races from 2012 onwards. To qualify the yard must have had a minimum of 50 runners during the period.

 

For those of you who have been following these articles over the recent past, you may remember the Mark Johnston editions. I don’t want to trample over old ground but suffice to say Johnston handicappers who have had a recent run (last 25 days) are a serious proposition. Whilst this angle wasn’t as lucrative in 2018 as previous years the performance has been consistently impressive over time. Those are horses to keep on your side. A link to that article is here.

The other notable name to take from the trainer table is William Haggas. It’s the Impact Value of 2.52 which immediately draws the eye, especially on what is a healthy relative volume of runners. As you might expect with stats such as these there is a general all-round excellence contained within.  The only significant and justifiable enhancement I could establish is associated to the age restrictions of races.

The data show, amongst other things, that his record with 2yo's and in 4yo+ races is perfectly respectable. It isn’t, however, quite as sharp as the races containing horses aged 3. It’s low volume stuff though, with the place performance consistent across all  groupings indicating that I might be looking for something that is not there. As a result, I’m not convinced that there is an angle beyond keeping Haggas horses firmly in your cross-hairs at Goodwood.

Moving on, those yards which currently have less than desirable records at the track we get the following picture:

I was very surprised that Saeed bin Suroor is top (or bottom) of the pile with an A/E of just 0.52. Messrs Fahey, Varian, Hannon and Balding are all on the list too with Fahey’s runners returning a strike rate of a meagre 6.6%. Perhaps these yards are too proficient to stay on this cold list indefinitely and the cream will rise to the top in due course. Here and now, though, the numbers demand we proceed with caution.

To complete the trainer view, the table below contains the best trainers (in terms of A/E) for Goodwood during the month of May, perhaps offering a couple of clues for the next few days. Not that I’d advise anyone to back runners from these yards blindly but there are some impressive numbers in here, Roger Charlton most notably.  That said, there is a danger of the data reverting towards the mean based on such small volumes.

 

 

Jockeys

In terms of the pilots, the data below show all active riders with an A/E of greater than 1.00. William Buick probably has the stand-out record. Again, all round excellence means dedicated deeper focus angles are difficult to find.

The deadly duo of Norton and Fanning have a very close association to the Goodwood-friendly Johnston yard. Therefore, it would be reasonably logical to assume that their records could be attributable to the trainer connection. The intel below shows that whilst that is undoubtedly true, when they are jocked up on rides for other trainer, performance remains largely in line.

 

Whilst this may be of limited interest in isolation, I think it may lead towards a question of pace. In general, Fanning and Norton are considered to be enterprising riders at the front of a race. Perhaps they prosper at the track irrespective of who is employing them because of their propensity to effectively judge pace from the front? More on that shortly.

 

Straight track pointers

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As the course map below illustrates, Goodwood has a complex array of starting points, routes and undulations.  The least confusing element is perhaps the confirmation on the map that there is a straight track for races up to 6 furlongs in distance.

 

Before searching for clues on how best to tackle the straight course, it must be noted that analysing the factors of pace and draw (like I’m going to here) in a broad way is a challenge. There are several variables that need due consideration, field size and ground conditions being the primary drivers of variance in determining how the race unfolds from a pace and draw perspective.

Fields here can range from 2 to 20-something, and underfoot conditions obviously can vary meaning that many multiple permutations can exist. All the same, there is merit in attempting to decode the data.

 

Draw

First let's look at the draw.

Using the draw analyser tool in Geegeez Gold the table below shows the performance of horses, by draw segment and based on the number of runners in the race, using Impact Value. I’ve only analysed races with six or more runners and I've used the actual drawn position (i.e. accounting for the effect of non-runners) rather than the race card drawn number.

 

The data covers all race ground from Firm through to Soft.  As noted in the above paragraph going conditions can have a significant impact on draw stats. However, in the case of Goodwood it’s fair to assert that the numbers on display are reasonably representative of the whole spectrum of ground challenges faced by the animals.

Here is a graphical representation of the very same data.

 

I include this as I think it illustrates a clear picture: horses that are drawn in lower or middle stalls are far more likely to prevail than horses drawn in high stall numbers on average. This applies to all nearly all field sizes (apart from arguably in 8-10 runner fields where the delta appears marginal) and to both 5- and 6-furlong distances.

The red line (representing those animals with a high draw) deteriorates the larger the field in general terms, especially if the race comprises of 11 or more participants.

The highest drawn are stationed on the stand side rail, nearest the cameras, the numbers thus progressively moving lower towards the centre and beyond to the far side. Racing usually develops between the middle and that stand side rail as a few horses generally tack across in that direction.

A rail is often an asset to have nearby but for this track it appears to be far from the case. Let’s complement this with a sprinkling of pace data using the Pace Analyser tool in Geegeez Gold.

The table below is based on the same conditions as the draw data above:

 

It is perhaps unsurprising that being on the speed early is an advantage over the sprint distances.

Putting both pace and draw together you’d expect a low/middle draw with a prominent or front running run style to be optimal. We can validate this by checking the draw/pace heat map (in Geegeez' Draw Analyser).

This picture covers  5- and 6-furlong races, on Firm through to Soft where there is a field size of 9 through to 12.

Interestingly, it appears as though a high draw is acceptable if the horse can zip out of the gates and secure an early lead. It could be claimed, using this data, that pace is of more importance than draw. High drawn horses who get to the front are 1.43 times more likely to win than the average in spite of the ostensibly challenging stall position.

That makes sense: racing room can be at a premium at Goodwood and it’s very feasible that horses get boxed in, especially in a big field. Those high drawn animals can have nowhere to go if horses congregate and the race develops on or around that rail or side of the track. The jockeys starting their journey from the low and middle numbered stalls should have more options to avoid trouble in running; unless of course the field sizes are so large that the low numbered stalls are situated on the far side rail as in, for example, the Stewards' Cup.

A heat map taking account of field sizes of 14 or more confirms the thinking:

 

In large fields even prominent racers struggle to get the run of the race from a high stall position, probably due to the relative lack of options in running. Horses drawn low retain a degree of flexibility in how they approach the race and can win from off the pace. Now all that remains is to find the right horse that this might apply to on race day!

 

Round course and longer distances

The 7-furlong trip has just shy of a quarter of a mile from the stalls to a tight right-hand bend into the straight. Most races develop on the far rail, the opposite to the straight track races.

Again, early speed holds sway. Attaining good track position at the bend is clearly of primary importance. Evaluating the draw for the trip over seven using the graphical format (below) shows the significance of stall position.

Whilst it’s reasonable to say that low draws generally have an advantage it only appears to become a concerted one in double digit field sizes. In these larger fields low drawn speed merchants around the bend are very much of primary interest!

In smaller fields pace is still an advantage but, naturally enough, draw appears to be less relevant. Like the straight course, high draws are perfectly fine if you think your horse can get to the front early and control the fractions. In basic terms, if you can pick the leader early in the race consistently over seven furlongs at Goodwood you will have a strong hand to play over time. The same principles apply over the mile too.

 

Distances greater than a mile

The races between nine furlongs and two miles are represented from a pace angle in the data presented below. There is perhaps a marginal preference for front running speed in general apart from the shorter relative distances (9 & 10f) where early speed is a significant advantage.

It’s repeating the same message: the major takeaway from the data is the reinforced view that it is  difficult for hold up horses to win in larger fields.  That makes perfect sense given the tight and undulating nature of a track where hard luck stories seem commonplace. Let’s hope that you’re not on  one that falls out of the stalls!

 

That’s it for another edition, I hope you find things of interest in the above and I’ll certainly be watching Goodwood races with a keener eye than usual over the next few days and months. Good luck!

- Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.45 Chelmsford : Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd approaching final furlong, led entering final furlong, soon clear, winning by 2.75L) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1f on Soft ground, worth £8022 to the winner...

This 7 yr old is admittedly on a fairly lengthy losing run (but as we know, they all end eventually!), but showed signs of a return to some semblance of form when possibly a little unlucky not to have least made the frame over further than at Newbury five days ago.

He does look well suited/handicapped today running off a mark of 85 in a Class 4 contest on Soft ground, considering his last win came off 95 on Soft at Class 2 and with today's conditions in mind, it's worth noting that to date...

  • four of his five career wins have come within 30 days of his last run
  • 3 of those 5 wins were on ground with soft in the going description
  • he has won one Listed race and 3 at Class 2
  • stays 1m2.5f, so stamina not a concern

Having checked the market at 8.30am, it's quite possible that he'll go off as favourite and it's a common thought that backing favourites is an easy route to the poor house and whilst that is true backing them blindly, the opposite is the case with runners trained by Rod Millman, whose horses sent off with a favourite tag are 77 from 244 (31.6% SR) for 41.7pts (+17.1% ROI), from which Class 4 runners are 14/39 (35.9%) for 9.5pts (+24.4%) and Soft ground runners are 7/24 (29.2%) for 1.55pts (+6.5%).

Another positive factor for me here is the booking of Oisin Murphy in the saddle, I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well right now, an observation backed up by his 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) over the past week, including 2 winners and a place from 5 rides at Chelmsford last night which kicked off by him delivering a well-timed 7/2 winner for SotD!

Oisin also has a good record when riding for Rod Millman, winning 17 of 104 (16.4% SR) for profits of 100.4pts (+96.5% ROI), from which...

  • in handicaps : 16/87 (18.4%) for 89.3pts (+102.6%)
  • male runners are 15/79 (19%) for 92.3pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m2f : 13/77 (16.9%) for 100.4pts (+130.4%)
  • on the Flat : 12/74 (16.2%) for 78.8pts (+106.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 5/35 (14.3%) for 21pts (+60%)

AND...from the above... O. Murphy + R. Millman + Males + 5f to 10f + Flat handicaps = 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 61.8pts (+143.7% ROI). I'm acutely aware that this stat also fits Handytalk in the 3.05 race here today, but I don't think he's as likely to win as our pick, but I wouldn't put you off a small E/W punt if you liked the look of it...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG , a price offered by over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Bet365 were slightly longer at 11/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

7.30 Epsom : Toy Theatre @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 8.05am due to the going)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Threading 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Group 3 contest (Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes) for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is rated (OR) 1 to 15 lbs better than the four of her five rivals who've got an official mark, but as the only filly in the contest gets a 3lb weight pull from all five, putting her at a great advantage as she seeks a fourth win in eight starts.

Her current 3 from 7 record is decent if not exceptional, but does include of note today...

  • 3 from 4 when not at Newmarket (perhaps she's not suited there)
  • 2 from 3 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 2 from 2 in August
  • wins on Gd to Fm / Gd to Soft & Soft suggest no going issues
  • has 2 wins at Class 1, inc a Gr 2
  • has won over 1m
  • has won here at Goodwood
  • and has won under jockey James Doyle

Her trainer, Mark Johnston, thrives here at Goodwood and prior to hitting two winners from six runners yesterday, his record at this venue stood at 82/543 (15.1% SR) for 266.8pts (+49.1% ROI) since the start of the 2008 season and these include of relevance today...

  • over the last five (inc this one) seasons : 44/269 (16.4%) for 143pts (+53.1%)
  • at 11-25 days since last run : 46/261 (17.6%) for 237.9 (+91.2%)
  • on good ground : 41/240 (17.1%) for 158.6pts (+66.1%)
  • in August : 23/152 (15.1%) for 95.2pts (+62.6%)
  • in non-handicaps : 29/151 (19.2%) for 69.2pts (+45.9%)
  • over 1m/1m1f : 16/79 (20.3%) for 76pts (+96.2%)
  • at Class 1 : 12/71 (16.9%) for 26.4pts (+37.2%)
  • at Group 3 : 4/26 (15.4%) for 19.7pts (+75.6%)
  • and with James Doyle in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.6pts (+174%)

...AND...over the last five seasons with horses on good ground, 11-25 days after their last run : 11 from 47 (23.4% SR) for 88.4pts (+188.1% ROI) with a Class 1 record of 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 12.7pts (+141.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Threading 5/2 BOGa price widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.40 Yarmouth : Emily Goldfinch @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/2 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, soon ridden, never on terms, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Soldier's Call 11/4 BOG

In an 11-runner, Group 3, Flat contest  for 2yo (aka Molecomb Stakes) over 5f on Good ground worth £42532 to the winner...

Why?

This 2 yr old Colt has finished 211 in his three starts to date, all over a straight 5f and he's 2 from 2 under today's jockey Dan Tudhope whjo comes here in decent nick himself having ridden 24 winners from 100 rides on the last 30 days. This pair were winners of a big-field (28 ran!) Listed contest last time out at Ascot 39 days ago and the form of that event seems to be working out well enough.

Van Beethoven was 4th that day (2.75L behind) and he then won a Group 2 race a week later and was quite possibly a little unlucky to go down by 5L here yesterday in another Gr2 race. I'm not saying he would/should have won, but with a bit more luck in running, he could have at least made the frame. Well Done Fox was a further 2.25 lengths back in 8th place in the Ascot contest and he has since landed a Listed contest, a week after Van Beethoven won his Gr2.

Our boy is trained by Archie Watson, who has had a spectacular start to life as a trainer and backing every one of his runners over the last 19 months (ie since New Year's Day 2017) has actually proved to be profitable. Now I'd never advocate backing every runner a trainer sends out, but if you had done, you've have backed 115 winners from 554 (20.8% SR) and your profits of 32.2pts would represent an ROI of 5.8%.

If you did want a simple "bet and forget" approach to Archie's runners, non-handicappers would have been the way forward, as these are 63/250 (25.2% SR) for 56.8pts (+22.7% ROI) and offer a much more palatable return and if that's still too many bets, you could filter them as follows...

  • 5 or fewer previous runs : 48/199 (24.1%) for 69pts (+34.7%)
  • 8/1 or shorter : 59/168 (35.1%) for 64pts (+38.1%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 48/165 (29.1%) for 55.2pts (+33.5%)
  • 10 to 40 days since last run : 44/148 (29.7%) for 43.4pts (+29.3%)
  • 2 yr olds  :34/140 (24.3%) for 35.2pts (+25.1%)
  • males : 35/113 (31%) for 42.5pts (+37.6%)
  • June to September : 35/112 (31.3%) for 74.3pts (+66.3%)
  • LTO winners : 12/36 (33.3%) for 5.2pts (+14.5%)
  • ridden by Dan Tudhope : 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.9pts (+117.9%)

...AND, from the above...

...2 yr olds with 5 or fewer previous runs now priced at 8/1 and shorter over 5 to 7 furlongs 10 to 40 days after their last run are 21/49 (42.9% SR) for 34.6pts (+70.6% ROI) and these include...

  • June-September : 18/36 950%) for 39.8pts (+110.5%)
  • males : 12/24 (50%) for 13.15pts (+54.8%)
  • males in June-September : 11/18 (61.1%) for 17.6pts (+97.9%)
  • LTO winners : 6/10 (60%) for 1.33pts (+13.3%)
  • LTO winners in June-September : 5/8 (62.5%) for 1.8pts (+22.5%)
  • male LTO winners : 4/6 (66.6%) for 0.76pts (+12.6%)
  • and male LTO winners in June-September : 3/4 (75%) for 1.22pts (+30.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Soldier's Call 11/4 BOGa price available from Unibet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

2.00 Haydock : Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, strongly pressed inside final furlong, held on gamely, all out to win by a nose )

We continue with Friday's...

6.30 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £4916 to the winner... 

Why?

Translated as the Eye of the Tiger, as used in the Rocky films, I'll be hoping land another knockout blow this evening with a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner last time out. That was 15 days ago on his first ever visit to this venue and was under today's jockey Sophie Ralston, a 7lb claimer who seems to have developed a good relationship with the horse.

The horse has 3 wins and 2 places from his last 8 starts, he has 4 wins and a place from 6 runs just 8 to 15 days after he was last seen and in the 6 races with Sophie Ralston on his back he has 3 wins and a place, so conditions seem good for him here racing just 1lb worse off than his LTO win.

In addition to the above details, I'm going to keep the stats simple today (I can almost hear the cheers!), focusing on trainer Tony Carroll and his ability to keep in-form horses running well.

The basic stat is that since 2009, in Flat handicaps during the May to August period Tony's LTO winners turned back out after a break of 11 to 75 days went on to win again on 13 of 83 occasions with that 15.7% strike rate yielding profits of 40.6pts at a very healthy ROI of 48.9%.

Now, 83 isn't a massive sample size, but the percentages quoted made this worth a second look and as always the numbers have to fit the race conditions, so based on today's contest, those 83 LTO winners are...

  • 12/67 (17.9%) for 25.8pts (+38.5%) as males
  • 12/50 (24%) for 71.3pts (+142.6%) over trips of 5.5 to 10 furlongs
  • 4/26 (15.4%) for 10.06pts (+38.7%) at Class 5
  • 5/25 (20%) for 12.05pts (+48.2%) on good ground
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 37.7pts (+179.4%) over trips of just 5.5 to 6 furlongs
  • and LTO C&D winners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.95pts (+213.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Brighton : Black Caesar @ 11/2 BOG (3.85/1 after 30p R4)- WON at 7/2 : Led early, chased leader, switched right 2f out, led entering final furlong, soon clear, comfortably home by 6 lengths...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

A fourth start for this progressive-looking filly, who is 2 from 2 after finishing 7th on debut earlier in "the summer" (as some people still like to call the middle part of the year!), more is needed on handicap/nursery debut of course, but the signs are good, for...

...trainer Andrew Balding's late season 2 yr olds are something I look out for. Well, more specifically, I look for runners to fulfil the following criteria...

...2009-17 / Flat / Class 1 to 4 / 5 to 7 furlongs / July to October / just 0-3 career runs to date - this sounds quite restrictive, but it's a nice little micro good for around 35 bets a season and to date stands at 39/303 (12.9% SR) for 38.2pts (+126.1% ROI) profit.

Those numbers are then backed up by Mr Balding's record since 2010 with 2 to 4 yr olds making a handicap debut after at least one career win and such beasts are 24/113 (21.2% SR) for 46.5pts (+41.2% ROI) in the 6/4 to 12/1 broad odds range, with today's jockey, Geegeez-sponsored, David Probert riding 14 of those of 24 winners from just 41 attempts (34.2% SR) for profits of 45.4pts (+110.8% ROI).

Lucky pants?

Lucky pants?

So, if the "lucky Geegeez pants" work their magic again today...

...we're well set with... a 1pt win bet on Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG, which was widely available at 8.30pm on Monday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Sky again. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.30 Fontwell : Charlie Mon @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 11/2 Led until just after 4 out, no impression on winner, lost 2nd after 2 out.

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.40 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Road To Dubai @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old colt has finished 131 in his last three outings, the latest of which was a win here at Goodwood just 7 days ago, taking his course record to 2 from 2. He's also 1/2 on good to firm ground and has won on the only other occasion on which he's had less than a full week's rest.

His trainer, George Scott and jockey Silvestre de Sousa are both in excellent form with George recording 3 wins from 8 in the last fortnight whilst SdS has 11 winners from 38 in the past 7 days!

All that aside, I was initially drawn to the horse purely because George Scott was his trainer, as during his relatively short training career, he has proved profitable to follow blindly, since 26 of 151 (17.2% SR) runners to date have been winners and had you got on from the start with £20 bets on each of them, your profits would currently stand at a cool £2076, a return of some 68.8% on your outlay.

Those blind figures are, of course, excellent, but if you didn't want to back all his runners, you could apply any of the following six filters that all apply today...

  • males are 19/94 (20.2%) for 77.2pts (+82.1%)
  • on the Flat : 17/87 (19.5%) for 99.8pts (+114.7%)
  • in handicaps : 15/87 (17.2%) for 68.5pts (+78.7%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 9/44 (20.5%) for 76.2pts (+173.3%)
  • those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa : 5/11 (45.5%) for 15pts (+136.1%)
  • and here at Goodwood : 3/5 (60%) for 84.6pts (+1692%)

And before I wrap this up, it's also worth pointing out that over the last four months Mr Scott's LTO winners are 4/8 (50% SR) for 2.86pts (+35.7% ROI) when running in handicaps.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Road To Dubai3/1 BOG offered by Bet365, Betfair , Paddy Power and SkyBet at 8.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.35 Sandown : Hold Sway @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leader, ridden to lead over 2f out, soon headed, kept on but lost 2nd inside final furlong.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.50 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG

Why?

A very comfortable winner by some 5 lengths over this 6f trip when last seen five weeks ago. She was ridden by today's jockey, David Probert that day as she scored on her handicap debut despite being off the track for 5 months, so she could well have more to give.

Trainer Paul Cole's handicappers with less than 4 handicap runs under their belts are 16/95 (16.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+44% ROI) over the last two years, which is very impressive indeed and under today's conditions, they are...

  • 12/67 (17.9%) for 32.25pts (+48.1%), 6 to 60 days since their last run
  • 11/58 (19%) for 23.1pts (+39.8%) on Turf
  • 3 yr olds are 10/57 (17.5%) for 42.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 41.7pts (+130.5%) at Class 5
  • females are 4/22 (18.2%) for 29.7pts (+135%)
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 51.5pts (+343.2%) over 6f
  • those with 1 previous hcp win are 4/13 (30.8%) for 20pts (+153.9%)
  • and those ridden by David Probert  are 3/5 (60%) for 30.95pts (+618.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG which was offered by both Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 6th May 2017

Friday's Result :

5.00 Musselburgh : Cosmic Ray @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/4 Tracked leader, led over 2f out, hard driven, stayed on well to win by a length and a half.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dubka7/2 BOG

Why?

A 1m4f Listed contest for fillies on good to firm ground and our pick is a 4 yr old, who has 4 wins from 6 starts to date, including...

  • 4/4 at this trip
  • 4/4 in fields of 4-10 runners
  • 2/3 on good to firm
  • 2/3 going right handed

So, conditions are fine. Now to her trainer, Sir Michael Stoute. The yard is in good nick : 9/30 in the last fortnight and 6 from 17 in the past 7 days with a place strike rate of 71% : all good!

Sir Michael's runners are also 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 13.4pts (+74.5% ROI) in Listed races here at Gooodwood since 2009 and in all contests here in that same time, he has a 20.7% strike rate (40 winners from 193).

So, we also now know that the yard does well here, but what about the fact that Dubka hasn't run for 205 days? Well, you'll be pleased to learn that Sir Michael's runners returning from a break of 3 to 10 months are 41/181 (22.7% SR) for 59.9pts (+33.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, of which...

  • in non-hcps : 27/119 (22.7%) for 46.9pts (+39.4%)
  • females are 11/62 (+17.7%) for 36.5pts (+58.9%)
  • at Class 1 : 11/35 (31.4%) for 19.1pts (+54.5%)
  • 4 yr olds are 12/28 (42.9%) for 26.1pts (+93.1%)
  • and over this 1m4f trip : 6/15 (40%) for 25.8pts (+171.8%)

And finally (!), Dubka is one of the many offsprin of the renowned Dubawi, whose progeny love running at this trip with 91 winners from 388 (23.5% SR) for 174.7pts (+45% ROI) over 1m4f, from which non-handicappers are 32/125 (25.6%) for 94.7pts (+75.8%) with Class 1 races providing a record of 20/75 (26.7%) for 53.8pts (+71.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dubka7/2 BOG which was on offer from Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 8.45pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.10 Beverley : Ralphy Boy @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Led, driven over 2f out, soon ridden, headed 1f out, kept on, no impression with winner inside final furlong and beaten by just over 2 lengths.)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Admiralty Arch at 11/2 BOG

Why?

Tom Marquand rides this 2 yr old colt for Richard Hannon today and the pair are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 33.5pts (+304.5% ROI) together at this venue in 2016, with 7f runners winning three of four on their way to profits of some 32.65pts (+876.2%).

On top of that, the pair are 18/109 (16.5% SR) for 11.86pts (+10.9% ROI) in all non-handicap contests to date, of which...

  • those racing over 5f to 1m are 17/95 (17.9%) for 32.8pts (+34.5%)
  • males are 14/62 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+35.2%)
  • on good/good to soft ground : 7/42 (16.7%) for 27.93pts (+66.5%)

Admiralty Arch is by Archipenko, whose offspring are 103/667 (15.4% SR) for 378.7pts (+56.8% ROI) profit so far, including...

  • 39/200 (19.5%) for 284.2pts (+142.1%) from 2 yr olds
  • 34/180 (18.9%) for 269.5pts (+149.7%) over 6/7f
  • 5/35 (14.3%) for 46.8pts (+133.6%) at Class 2

AND... 2 yr olds over 7 furlongs are 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 163pts (+220.3% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Admiralty Arch at 11/2 BOG, which was available from Hills and Bet365 at 6.40pm on Tuesday and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Goodwood.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...