Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 01/08/23

Sorry for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, I was out all day Sunday with a plan to putting the piece up early on Monday morning. Sadly, United Utilities had other ideas and we'd no power here until after 1pm!

Thankfully, everything seems fine now, so we'll kick off the new month with a look at Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Presentandcounting and Kinross are of obvious interest, but Indication Spirit, Basford and Pride of America must also be worth a look at. I've shown you this graphic, because Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

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GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.00 Beverley
  • 4.00 Goodwood
  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 6.20 Perth
  • 8.20 Galway

When you've a runner scoring 15 on The Shortlist running in a race from the free list that happens to be a Class 1 affair, then it'd be rude of me not to look at the race in question, even if Kinross is likely to be a short-priced favourite in the 4.00 Goodwood, the 8-runner, Group 2 Lennox Stakes. The trip is a right-handed 7f on ground that is currently good to soft with softer patches in places and here's the line-up...

Holguin won last time out and Audience comes here on a hat-trick. Featured horse Kinross won this race in 2021 and his last six races have seen him land two wins and a runner-up at Gr2 plus a win and a place at Gr1, the only blot being a 5 length defeat at Ascot when 7th of 16 in the Gr1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes two starts ago, as he came off a 250+ day absence. Elsewhere Isaac Shelby is inexperienced but has won three of his five starts to date including success at Gr3 and Gr2.

If we look at the weights, the 3yr old Isaac Shelby would be best off based on Official Ratings, as he's rated a 114 horse and will carry 6lbs less than the 119-rated Kinross, but these two look most well in based on handicap marks with Pogo looking the worst treated here, carrying 6lbs more than Isaac Shelby despite being rated 3lbs worse.

All eight set to go to post have raced in the last 17-42 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here and all bar Indestructible have won at least once over 7f, as his two wins have been over 6f and 1m. Only three of the field have raced at Goodwood before with both Marbaan and Kinross having won Gr2 events over course and distance. Pogo is the other to have raced here and although winless in four attempts, he has made the frame three times including twice at Gr2.

Instant Expert tells us that Audience has yet to run on good to soft or soft ground and that Holguin would prefer more rain to come. Kinross won't be too concerned if it dries out or gets a bit wetter and Al Suhail won't want any more rain....

You can quickly see why Kinross is at the top of The Shortlist and the likely favourite here, but the relatively unexposed Isaac Shelby looks well suited here too. Featured horse Kinross has the inside stall and a non-runner was drawn in stall 3, so Al Suhail is effectively drawn in 8 of 8 over a track/trip where horses drawn in stall 1 (Kinross) have won most often on good to soft/soft ground, but that generally speaking a more central draw has suited better...

...and this is backed up by the PRB3 data, which suggests a draw in the first five stalls might be more advantageous...

...but that being drawn higher wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, as the emphasis here seems to more about race tactics, as seen here...



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...from which I'm going to say that those who can go hard early, should do that but if you're not a natural front-runner, then you're better off dropping in at the back for a late run for the line. The way this field has approached its most recent contests suggests that Audience and possibly Al Suhail will be setting the tempo...

...with featured runner and favourite Kinross the hold-up horse.

Summary

Kinross is the class horse here and has been running really well in Gr1 races, so this is a step down in quality for him. He's won this race before, Frankie's on board having won 4 times on the horse already, he tops the Instant Expert stats, has the 'plum draw' in stall 1 and his hold-up tactics should be spot on. All in all, I can't see Kinross getting beaten here. The question is this : do we back him at 11/8 or seek value elsewhere? That's entirely your call, I'm afraid, but I can see him going off much shorter, if that's any help to you.

Somewhat predictably, I also think that second favourite Isaac Shelby is the one likely to give Kinross the biggest challenge, but at 9/2, I won't be having an E/W bet. I think this one is already very good as a 3 yr old, but will certainly improve with age. If I am having an E/W bet, it would be the front-running Audience that would carry my money at 10/1. Although he is untested on this anything softer than good ground, he's in good form, this is his trip and he gets on really well with today's jockey. He might well be afforded a soft lead and if so, he could easily hang on for a place.

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