Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/09/23
Apologies for there being no preview of Monday's action, I was unwell over the weekend (even too ill to go for a beer after football!) and spent most of Saturday evening and Sunday in bed, but I feel just about well enough to put something together for Tuesday, so back to it!
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where a good half dozen would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...
- 1.50 Bangor
- 3.20 Goodwood
- 3.55 Goodwood
- 7.15 Hamilton
The best of that quartet of free races would appear to be the first of the ones from Goodwood, featuring last year's winner Aggagio who scores 15 on The Shortlist, so it's probably the right decision to cover the 3.20 Goodwood, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good to soft ground...
Temporize won last time out and has made the top three in five of his six, as has Novel Legend who has won three of his last seven. Grand Providence has won two of her six career starts and has never been out of the first three home, but Rhythmic Intent is winless in his last ten starts and Merveillo is a 12-race maiden, mainly over hurdles.
Top weight Earlofthecotswolds makes a second handicap outing and Rhythmic Intent, Aggagio, Pona Aelius and Grand Providence all step up a class. The card says Merveillo is up three classes, but that's from a recent hurdles outing. His last flat run was at this grade, but back in May 2022!
Only Rhytmic Intent, Merveillo (obviously) and Temporize are yet to win over this trip, but the latter did win here over 2m4½f last time out, whilst Vino Victrix, Pons Aelius and Aggagio are all course and distance winners. The latter won this race last year, of course and has finished 1152 in four efforts over track and trip. Pons Aelius represents the Johnstons who trained the winner of this race in 2018, 2019 and 2021.
Earlofthecotswolds last raced 88 days ago and Novel legend has had 45 days rest, but the remainder have all raced in the last month or so, but have all had at least 11 days recovery time. Bottom weight Grand Providence is the sole 3 yr old in the field and receives a hefty 11lbs allowance here.
As you'd expect from his place on The Shortlist, last year's winner Aggagio scores well on Instant Expert, but he's not the only runner with plenty of 'green', as Vino Victrix and Temporize amongst others look well suited too...
Although there's a fair chunk of 'red' on there too, the only alarming stat is Rhythmic Intent's 1 win from 16 in this grade, so I'd say it was fair to assume he'd been tried, tested and failed. He's not for me, despite a mark 6lbs lower than his last win. The three horses drawn highest are carrying six to ten pounds more than their own last wins, which might make life more difficult, although the draw shouldn't.
Stats do suggest that those drawn highest haven't gone as well as others...
...but I'm not convinced that the draw can cause you to lose over a two mile trip, but race tactics might. Those races above haven't been too kind to pacemakers or hold-up types with the key being to be close to the pace without setting it...
...which, based on recent endeavours, might not bode well for Aggagio or the already written-off Merveillo...
Summary
It's hard to look anywhere other than the form horses, Novel Legend and Temporize and this is reflected in the market where they are 5/2 fav and 4/1 2nd fav respectively and they certainly look the ones to beat. As for the places, Pons Aelius is sure to be there or thereabouts, but I do like the 3yr old filly Grand Providence. She's yet to run a bad race, gets a hefty weight allowance and did beat Temporize in July, albeit by a neck and she's 4lbs worse off here.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
- Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
- Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24
