Racing Insights, Friday 03/05/24
Apologies for the lack of a preview for Friday's racing. It sounds a little far-fetched, but I'm away from home right now and the dog ate my homework broke my laptop! I've managed to borrow one for today with a view to getting a replacement at the weekend, but that's not what you've come here to read, is it?
So, let's crack on. Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...
...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...
but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
- 3.50 Goodwood
- 4.10 Newmarket
- 4.30 Musselburgh
- 5.10 Cheltenham
- 7.05 Punchestown
...from which I think I'll take a look at Many A Star and the 3.15 Goodwood from the H4C report. The race is a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on heavy ground that will be softer in places...
Hat-trick seeking Bishop's Crown is the only LTO winner in the field, but Many A Star has finished 112 in his last three starts. Baldomero has been placed in each of his last two and sole mare Alcazan was third on her last run. Spanish Star, Baldomero and Dayman are the only ones without at least one win from their last five outings, having been beaten in 7, 31 and 12 respectively.
Dayman's chances of breaking that cold spell won't be helped by stepping up two classes here, though, whilst Many A Star, Live In The Moment, Bishop's Crown and Alcazan are all up one level with fast finisher Baldomero our only class dropper. Live In The Moment is also returning from 197 days off the track and runs against a field who've all had a run in the last 18 days.
Baldomero and Dayman are yet to win over this trip, but Spanish Star, Gisburn, Many A Star, Live In The Moment and Alcazan are all former course and distance winners, whilst Indian Creak has won here over 7f. That said, he is 0 from 11 over course and distance!
So we've not much heavy ground form, which is a shame as the going can be a big factor when it gets heavy. Indian Creak's record at class/track are a big worry from a win perspective but I'm generally getting more from the place stats and they're telling me to focus on the top four in the weights plus Bishop's Crown giving me runners in stalls 1 and 6-9, so I'm hoping that if there is a draw bias here, it favours those drawn highest!
Sadly, that's no the case, as it would appear that stalls 1 to 4 are the place to be, so that's advantage Gisburn from my quintet...
If we then look at how those races above were won, we find that there's not a huge pace bias at all, but those racing furthest forward have done better than those in behind...
...and this is how our field have approached their last few races...
...suggesting that Indian Creak, Many A Star, Alcazan and Live In the Moment are the likely pace-setters.
Summary
From recent form, Instant Expert, draw and pace, the two runners that keep cropping up are featured runner Many A Star (who has finished 31231 in five starts over course and distance) and low-drawn Gisburn.
Based on the odds available at 3.30pm on Thursday, I'd be inclined to take the 11/2 about Many A Star and also look at Gisburn as an E/W option at 8/1, both with bet365.
Please note, I'm not here on Friday 
afternoon/evening (EFL play-offs), so that's Racing Insights signing off for the Bank Holiday weekend, hope you have a good one!
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