Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/09/24
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]
Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where we've two runners in the same race at Brighton. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...
- 2.20 Goodwood
- 3.05 Southwell
- 4.40 Goodwood
- 4.50 Southwell
- 6.30 Southwell
...and with Aggagio and Master Milliner from the Shortlist running in one of our free races, it makes sense to look at the 4.40 Goodwood (a race Aggagio won in 2022), an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 2m on good ground...
Only the afore-mentioned Master Milliner managed to win last time out. but Beamish was a runner-up and both The Grand Visir & East India Dock finished third, the former doing so for the second successive race.
Calling The Wind won his penultimate race, LTO-winner Master Milliner is three from his last seven, Ben Lilly is two from six and East India Dock won five starts ago. Beamish, Aggagio, Diamond Bay and The Grand Visir are, however, winless in 7, 7, 8 and 30 races respectively.
Only the top three in the weights ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all stepping up in class at least one level with Aggagio and Ben Lilly up two classes. This pair might also be in need of a run after respective absences of 155 and 225 days, but Calling The Wind has been off the track longer than the previous pair combined, as he now runs for the first time in just over 13 months.
As the sole 3yo in the field, bottom weight Est India Dock is afforded a huge 11lbs allowance, but he's one of only two runners (along with Beamish) yet to win over today's trip. Our two runners from the Shortlist, Master Milliner and Aggagio are former course and distance winners, whilst Calling The Wind won here over 2m4½f way back in July 2021 as seen on Instant Expert below...
Most of the field have decent place stats, but Diamond Bay and The Grand Visir both look weak, whilst from a win perspective, it's our Shortlisted duo plus Ben Lilly who catch the eye.
As you'd expect for two mile flat race, there doesn't seem to be much to be had from the draw...
...but the pace angle is a different kettle of fish. Hold-up horses have the worst place record and front-runners tend to get reeled in by those just behind, so it's best to avoid leaders and hold-up types for win bets and hold-up horses for place purposes...
...which, based on the field's last few runs, would suggest that Aggaggio will be the one with the target on his back...
...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests that Aggagio and East India Dock are the least advantaged...
Summary
Aggagio, Ben Lilly and Calling The Wind look like they might need the run and Diamond Bay has only made the frame once in eight starts, so I don't really want to back any of those.
The Grand Visir has been third in each of his last two, but only 4 ran last time out and he has lost 30 on the bounce, so I can't back him either, effectively leaving me with Beamish, Master Milliner and East India Dock against the field.
As of 7.15pm on Monday, this trio were best priced at 13/2, 9/2 and 11/8 as the top three in the market. 11/8 about East India Dock doesn't scream value to me, so he's not for me and the tentative play here is an E/W suggestion at 13/2 with Beamish.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Friday 11/10/24
- Tix Picks, Thursday 10/10/24
- Tix Picks, Wednesday 09/10/24
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 08/10/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24
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