Tag Archive for: H4C Report

Racing Insights, Friday 05/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Musselburgh
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Cheltenham
  • 7.55 Newcastle

The first of those is the 'best' on paper as a Group 2 race, but with a small field and a likely short favourite, I'll take the next on the list, the competitive-looking 3.00 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, which is unusual at this level and more surprisingly, only bottom weight Lord Rapscallion made thframe, but even that was at Class 4, as he now steps up two classes. Persuasion and Darkness are both also up from Class 3.

The Gatekeeper did win three races ago and Final Watch won four starts back, but the rest are winless in five. They have all, however, previously won at a trip similar to this one and three have won here at HQ; Accidental Agent scored over course and distance just over a year ago and Final Watch did so almost two years ago (and has won over 7f on the July course), whilst Star Of Orion won here over 6f on debut almost three years ago and has since scored over this trip on the July course.

The bottom three on the card could be excused for needing a run, as Bass Player, Accidental Agent and Star of Orion return from breaks of 22 to 27 weeks. Top weight Persuasion is back from a two-month rest and the other four have all raced in the past four weeks with Darkness & Lord Rapscallion out as recently as last week.

Instant Expert tells us that we have four previous good to firm ground winners, one trying it for the first time and one with a really poor win record! As for Class 2 racing, just two have wins under their belt and two have really toiled...

And with a  0 from 11 record on good to firm and an even worse 0/25 at Class 2, I won't be rushing out to back Lord Rapscallion. He's not great at this trip either, nor is Star of Orion who also has a dismal Class 2 record. I'm fairly sure neither of these would be winning this one. Elsewhere. Persuasion has struggled at the trip, but those 2 wins from 15 are his only two wins in a 21-race career, so I doubt he wins this either.

Yet, his place record at the trip is pretty good and only Accidental Agent's poor place record on good to firm ground stands out as being unwanted...

...he does seem to either win or not make the frame on good to firm!

Unusually for a straight seven furlongs, we do have a slight draw bias and similarly surprisingly, it seems to favour those drawn highest in eight runner contests...

...although the advantage isn't huge. Pace, however, is a totally different kettle of fish...

Those setting the pace make the frame in half of the races, but tend to only win 1 in 14 or so, leaving the door open for the stalking horses to come in and snatch the race late on, even to the extent that hold-up horses can often watch the leaders take each other on, do too much and be left vulnerable to a late run, but for now, a prominent position looks the best option, which based on recent runs...

...might make connections of The Gatekeeper a little wary of his ability to make all from the front. The pace/draw heat map...

...suggests we should focus on...

  • the mid-drawn to high prominent runners
  • or the low drawn leaders.

Summary

Our race pace/draw combinations look like this

...where the Bass Player looks the nearest thing to a mid/high drawn prominent runner, but he has been in such poor form that we might want to wait and see how his recent wind op has changed him. The Gatekeeper, however, does seem to the low drawn leader role and based on his winning run at the start of March, he's probably the one to beat here.

He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills, which I think is more than fair and the one who might cause him most bother is probably Final Watch. The rest are a fairly mediocre bunch for a Class 2 contest and it might well be Accidental Agent or Darkness who complete the frame here.

Racing Insights, Friday 28/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded no qualifiers at all so it's a good job that this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Perth
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Perth
  • 7.45 Punchestown

...from which I have chosen the first on the list, the Highland National. It's the 2.05 Perth, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase featuring 23 fences spread over 3m6½f on good to soft ground and here's how they line up...

As you can see, top-weight Court Master was due to run for the first time in ten months (during which he'd had a wind op) since being pulled up in a Listed race at Uttoxeter, but has been withdrawn from this contest, leaving us the baker's dozen competitors. He'll probably run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday and this means that the entire field for this Perth race have all ran in the last twelve weeks with new top-weight Innisfree Lad seen as recently as nine days ago.

Silver In Disguise is our sole LTO winner, having scored over 3m½f at Wetherby earlier this month, but a few of his rivals have also won recently. Nearly Perfect is 3 from 7, Geryville is a regular placer, Fairlawn Flyer seems to win or be pulled up with four wins and 2 x P in his last six, whilst Concetto is 2 from 3, Destiny Is All is 3 from 7 and Return Fire is 2 from 6 as all of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings!

Planned Paradise, If Not For Dylan and Return Fire both now drop down from Class 2, but Fairlawn Flyer, Just Don't Know, Silver In Disguise (also up 5lbs) and Gentleman De Mai all step up a level from Class 4. Top-weight Innisfree Lad is the oldest here at 11, some 4yrs older and carrying 18lbs more than bottom-weight and joint youngest at 7, Return Fire.

None of this field have won over this trip, but Silver In Disguise won over 3m7f at Chepstow thirteen months ago. Other than that, Destiny In All's win over 3m3f at Ayr a year ago is the longest win of this field so far, although Fairlawn Flyer and If Not For Dylan have both won here at Perth before, albeit over at 3m½f hurdle and a 3m chase respectively.

The card tells us that couple of these are in first-time headgear, as Geryville is tongue-tied and Gentleman De Mai is visored, whilst Instant Expert says we have seven good to soft chase winners on display and half a dozen Class 3 chase winners, whilst Innisfree Lad is the only one to have scored at Class 2...

Innisfree Lad's record in this grade (1/13) is a worry, as is his 0 from 5 at 3m6f and beyond, but he is down to a reasonable mark, just a pound higher than his last win. Nearly Perfect has done well at Class 3 and  is 5lbs below his last win but all his best form is on soft ground. Geryville has won at both going and class but might be a little high in the weights.

Silver In Disguise poses a dilemma, as he stays the trip, but has a poor record at this level, as does If Not For Dylan. As can often be the case, the ones to consider might well be those without much relevant experience as there is a school of thought that backing horses trying something new is better than backing those that have failed repeatedly under set conditions. It's a thought, if nothing else! Perhaps, the place stats will open a door or two?

Here, you would expect to see plenty of green and regular placer Geryville catches the eye. He'll like the ground and has done well at this grade; Silver In Disguise and If Not For Dylan have struggled at Class 3, though. Destiny Is All has perfect percentage figures, as do Concetto and Gentleman de Mai off admittedly fewer runs.

And if we were to focus purely on green and amber stat percentages from the place form...

...then the five (because some bookies will pay five places here) that would interest me most from that would be (in card order) Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. That said, getting this trip here over so many fences on good to soft ground isn't easy and sadly, we don't have enough relevant pace data to help us out, as there aren't many similar races to fall back on as shown here...

Summary

In such a competitive looking race with many runners in decent nick and a lack of relevant pace data, I'm going to fall back onto the place stats from earlier and stick with my five-runner shortlist of Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. I feel that all of them stand a great chance of making the frame and I'll be checking the market to see of any are worth an E/W punt.

As for the winner, I think it's likely to be between Destiny Is All and Concetto and I really wouldn't like to try and split them if I'm honest and I'm not really surprised that they're at the top end of the market. My shortlist are currently (6.05pm) best priced at Innisfree Lad (14/1 4 places & 12/1 5 places), Geryville (8/1 both),  Concetto (13/2 & 11/2), If Not For Dylan (20/1 & 16/1) and Destiny Is All (13/2 & 6/1).

Destiny Is All and Concetto are a little short for my liking as E/W bets, but i wouldn't try to deter you from backing any or all of the other three.

Racing Insights, Friday 21/04/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced three qualifiers...

And our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.05 Newbury
  • 2.50 Fontwell
  • 3.08 Cork
  • 4.30 Fontwell
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 6.35 Exeter

Both Ayr runners on my H4C report go in Class 2 contests, but it's the latter of the two races that interests me most, as E/W backers can get three places in the 3.35 Ayr, where the in-form Charm Offensive takes on eight other rivals in a Class 2, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over a left handed 3m½f (after a +60 yards rail movement) on good to soft ground...

Only Jasmiwa won last time out, but that was a Class 4 contest and she's up two grades here. That said, she'll be in good heart, having won two of her last three. Featured horse Charm Offensive has three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last five outings and now steps up one class, whilst Great Snow makes a second handicap appearance after finishing third in a Newbury Grade 2 contest on handicap debut four weeks ago. Aubis was pulled up in that same race on her handicap bow and now also drops in class.

Bellatrixsa and Aurora Thunder are winless in five and eight NH races respectively and whilst the former drops in class here, it'll be tough for the latter stepping up from Class 4. Sabrina has made the frame in seven of her last eight outings, but also steps up in class here. Charm Offensive might well need a run here, after a 113-day absence but aside from last year's winner Get A Tonic coming back from two months off, the rest of this field have all raced since the start of March.

Winning this race last year makes Get A Tonic, the only course and distance winner in the field, as Charm Offensive's two wins here were at 2m4½f/2m5f and Aurora Thunder is the only other course winner, having also won over 2m4½f. Great Snow and Jasmiwa have won at this trip in the past, though and stamina may be the key here.

All the above data comes from your racecard above, but clicking the Instant Expert tab will also reveal four previous NH winners on good to soft ground and just the one previous Class 2 success...

Get A Tonic is that sole Class 2 winner, courtesy of winning this race last year, but she has failed to place in the three defeats at this level. Sabrina has made the frame in two of three Class 2 runs and Aurora Thunder managed to place in five of her nine efforts, but a 0 from 9 win record is worrying, as is her 0 from 6 at the trip. If we looked a little closer at place form...

...we'd probably not fancy Sabrina on good to soft ground and we'd still have questions about Aurora Thunder staying the trip. Charm Offensive's record here is exceptional, but she has a career record of just one win from five at any trip beyond 2m5f, but she has made the frame in three of the four defeats.

I suggested that stamina could well be the key here and there's quite a few way this field have approached their recent outigs and if we consider how they've raced in their last three contests...

...you'd expect class-dropper Great Snow to be setting the pace here, closely followed by Bellatrixsa and Sabrina, whilst last year's winner Get A Tonic looks like he has been waited with of late, despite that win here coming from a prominent racing position. Last year's tactics have proven to be more successful than a hold-up approach here...

...and she'd probably be best served by a switch in tactics here, if she's to succeed, as might well Charm Offensive.

Summary

For me, the one to beat is Great Snow. She ran really well to finish third of fifteen in a Grade 2 handicap four weeks ago and with her front-running tactics could be difficult to catch/beat. She's unexposed and has already won over three miles and the only surprise to me is that she's available at 9/2 with Bet365.

As for who might chase her home, Get A Tonic won this last year, Charm Offensive loves it here and both should go well, but wouldn't be E/W bets at just 6/1 and 9/2 respectively. I don't normally dip below 8/1 for an E/W pick and based on that Sabrina would be the likeliest. She'll be up with the pace, has gone well at class/trip before and if it dries out any, she could edge one of the others out for a place.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.25 Bath

As is generally the case, I shy away from the Flat in early April, so the Bath contest is a no-go for me and whilst the Lingfield race is a decent-looking Class 3 handicap, the first on the list is probably the best of the three and that's the 1.50 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 2 Conditions Stakes for 3 yr olds. It's over a straight 6f on standard tapeta and a first prize of over £77k awaits one of these...

The entire field has at least one win inside their last four outings with Danger Alert (2 from 3), Desert Cop, Michaela's Boy (2 from 2), Shaquille (2 from 2 and 3 from 4), Hello Queen (2 from 3 ) and Perdika (4 from 4) all winnig last time out.

Less than half of them raced at Class 2 last time out, as Danger Alert, Michaela's Boy, The X O and perdike all step up two classes, whilst Desert Cop raced at Class 5. Conversely, Shouldvebeenaring was beatenh by just over a length in a Listed contest and drops down here.

Perdika wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Michaela's Boy is the only one yet to win over today's trip, although he has won here at Newcastle over 5f, as has Glorious Angel with Hello Queen being our sole course and distance winner having won LTO five weeks ago.

Conditions Stakes mean they all carry 9st 7lbs except the three fillies, Glorious Angel, Hello Queen and Perdika. And with Perdika having the highest OR (104), she's best off at the weights, effectively 6lbs well in with second best Shouldvebeenaring. Desert Cop looks worst off, rated 25lbs worse than perdika, but carrying 5lbs more : that's a tough ask over 6f.

Shaquille might need a run after a four-month break, but aside from Desert Cop's 51-day absence, the others have all raced at least once in the last five weeks. Shaquille, however, is the only runner in the field with a Class 2 A/W win to his name, whilst Desert Cop is the only one without a standard going win. These details along with the course/distance/weight datea can be seen here in Instant Expert...

...from which, I'd say Shaquille, Hello Queen and Perdika caught my eye first. All three are drawn in stalls 7 to 10 with Shouldvebeenaring, but I'd need to check the draw stats to see if that is likely to have any bearing on the outcome...

The 'bias' doesn't appear to be huge with win% ranging from 8.38 to 11.75, but that's possibly bigger than it might seem with 11.75 equating to 140% of 8.38, so in real terms those drawn high are 40% more likely to win here over 6f assuming, of course, they get their tactics right and as with many straight A/W sprints, it has paid to be at the head of affairs...

...which, combined with the draw stats, makes the heat map fairly unsurprising...

If we then look at how the field have approached their most recent races...

...then I'd expect Michaela's Boy, Desert Cop, Shaquille, Glorious Angel and Perdika to be making the running and if we add those runners to our heat map and arrange the field into draw order, it doesn't look good for Shouldvebeenaring, but most of the field would be happy with their lot...

Summary

I expect Michaela's Boy to blast out and attempt to win from the front, but he's up two classes here and has all his best form over 5f. Desert Cop was weak finishing in two 7f contests before landing a Class 5 maiden over 6f last time out, but this is much tougher and might be too much of a step up too soon. Glorious Angel has the benefit of the 5lb allowance but has toiled in her last three UK and one French outing since winning here by a neck over 5f in January.

I don't really fancy any of those three to win and if I was to pick one of those, it would be Michaela's Boy as an E/W pick at a rather attractive 18/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power (or 14's with Hills paying four places).

As for my winner, I think I've narrowed down to Shaquille and Perdika. Both are in good form, Perdika is best off at the weights, both scored well (green) on Instant Expert with Perdika having the better numbers. Both are drawn high and both will race prominently and I'd expect both to be involved. That said, the 6/1 (Bet6365) Perdika appeals more than the 7/2 (Coral & Ladbrokes) Shaquille, so that's how I'd play it.

Good Luck & Happy Easter!

Please note, I'm away at a wedding on Good Friday, so no Saturday preview and I'm back with you on Monday afternoon/evening for Tuesday's racing.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 31/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.25 Wetherby
  • 4.40 Wexford
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 5.55 Southwell
  • 6.10 Wexford

Of the free UK races and the three featuring H4C runners, the 3.25 Wetherby is the highest rated as a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

Dare To Shout has won two from three so far (runner-up in the other) and is the form horse and only LTO winner in the contest, whilst Fransham, Albert's Back and Uhtred are all winless in six. Top weight Celestyal Horizon has been pulled up in four of his last five.

He does, however, drop down a level here, as do Front View, Uhtred and Dancewiththewind. Dare To Shout goes the opposite direction on his handicap debut, whilst both Hardy du Seuil (first-time cheekpieces here) and Sizing Pottsie are both dropping down from Class 1 action LTO witht he former having won at Class 2 two starts ago.

All ten have already won over today's with three of them (Fransham, Albert's Back and Dancewiththewind) having won over course and distance. Bottom weight Pyramid Place has also won here in the past, landing a 2m4f hurdle.

None of these are coming off really long layoffs with Fransham's 11-week absence the longest, as half of the field have raced inside the last three weeks and seven have been seen this month alone.

In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Celestial Horizon, Dare To Shout and Dancewiththewind have already scored on soft ground and that half of the field (Fransham, Hardy du Seuil, Albert's Back, Dancewiththewind & Pyramid Place) are former Class 3 winners...

Our Pace Analyser tells us that those setting the tempo of similar races have done pretty well, but that the optimum racing postiion is to track the leaders in a prominent position...

...with hold-up horses having a lamentable record here at 1 in 80! Based on the field's most recent outings, that hold-up stat really isn't good news for Sizing Pottsie, Uhtred and/or Pyramid Place in a contest where I expect Dancewiththewind to set the pace with a target on his back for the likes of Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout...

Summary

I can see Dancewiththewind trying to make all to win for the third time in four starts to land a second course and distance win, but his front-running tactics make him a target for Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout. I don't particularly like Front View, as he's in poor form (just one win in nine over the last three years) and doesn't win often enough on soft ground.

I'd expect the leader to be overhauled by both Hardy du Seuil and Dare To Shout, but at 12/1 (Bet365 , 3 places) or 10/1 (SkyBet, 4 places) Dancewiththe wind looks a viable E/W prospect at 10.30pm on Thursday, which begs the question about who wins. Dare to Shout is the form horse, finishing 211 in his three starts so far but all at a lower grade than this. Hardy du Seuil, on the other hand, drops down from Class 1 to run here, won a Class 2 two starts ago and was a Grade 2 runner-up over fences last year.

I think the latter is a 'better' horse than the former and I'll take quality/experience over form today with the 9/2 (generally) Hardy du Seuil to edge it over the 9/4 (gen) Dare To Shout.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/03/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 3.10 Ayr
  • 3.20 Wolverhampton
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Kempton

...and I think we'll see how track specialist Satin Snake might get on in the 6.00 Kempton, an 8-runner (Porfin doesn't go), Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices Handicap over a right handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

No LTO winners on display here, but feature horses Satin Snake was a runner-up 7 days ago and bottom weight Jupiter Express was also a runner-up 8 days ago. Both also won two starts ago and both have 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from their last five five, making them the 'form horses'. Conversely, The Green Man is winless in 6, Impeach has lost his last 8 and it's a losing streak of 16 races over almost two years for Gobi Sunset.

The two 'form' horses both step up a class here, but The Green Man, Mamillius and Gobi Sunset all drop a level after failing to make the frame on their most recent outings. Stockpyle might need the run after a five-month break during which he was gelded, but aside from Mamillius' three month absence, the others have all raced in the last month with both Satin Snake and Jupiter Express running in March already.

Stockpyle and Satin Snake are the only ones yet to win at this trip, but the latter is just one of two previous winners (finishes of 31211 over 7f!), along with Melly's Flyer who is 2 from 3 over course and distance. In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells me that on the A/W, five of these have won on standard to slow going and four of them have won at Class 4...

Aside from being 0 from 3 at this trip, you can see why Satin Snake is the H4C horse here, Elsewhere, I have worries over Mamillius (class/trip), Impeach (going/class) and Gobi Sunset (generally but class here) and as Mamillius might need the run after a lay-off, Impeach is on a run of 0 from 8 and Gobi Sunset 0 from 16, I'm crossing them off the list here, leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 7 & 8 and in similar past races here at Kempton, this is how the draw has worked out...

.suggesting that Mellys Flyer is at somewhat of a disadvantage and that Satin Snake might also not have the best of it, but good news for The Green Man, if nothing else. 23.5 wins would be par, so stalls 4 & 5 are neither badly nor well considered here. Interestingly, Satin Snake has won here from stall 7 before and also from stall 13, which is somewhere out near Kempton cricket club, so it might well be the race tactics are more important here and they say...

...that the further forward you can race the better from both a win and place perspective, which based on this field's recent endeavours...

...is less good news for The Green Man than before, but some respite for Satin Snake, whose average pace score from his last five visits here is 3.40. We have the draw and the pace covered, but how they interact may also offer some clues, so here's the heat map for this race...

...suggesting that a highly drawn runner's best chance of success is to get out quickly, as Satin Snake has done here in the past. When we combine today's drawn with the field's last four runs anywhere, we get...

...and although those drawn lower than Satin Snake look better placed, he does have the right pace profile if not the best draw.

Summary

It's hard to get away from the two 'form' horses, Satin Snake and Jupiter Express and they might well be the first two home. Satin Snake ticks plenty of boxes, but is relatively poorly drawn (although only two wide of Jupiter) and is 3lbs higher than his last win, which was by 0.75 lengths. Jupiter Express also brings similar form to the table, but lacks experience and was raised 4lbs for a half-length success. He's slightly worse treated than Satin and with his rivals record here at Kempton, it's Satin Snake for me, but Jupiter should definitely make the frame if not the runners-up spot.

Sadly, as I'm a bit later (6.15pm) than normal, the price on Satin Snake has gone and he's now the 9/4 fav although that's where I'd have him, along with the 7/2 about Jupiter Express. The bookies are giving us anything, but they're being fair here and the reverse forecast might pay reasonably.

Racing Insights, Friday 03/03/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers at Newcastle's evening meet for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races, which sadly (for me) is very Dundalk-heavy...

  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.55 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Dundalk

I've no real interest in Dundalk, but the Lingfield contest looks a better one than the Newcastle H4C report races, so let's focus on the 3.00 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack, where a first prize of almost £13k awaits one of these...

Dora Penny and Laheg both won LTO, whilst Baldomero, Crimson Sand and Tolstoy were runners-up, but Lequinto has failed to make the frame in five starts since back-to-back wins at Windsor last summer.

LTO winner Laheg is up a class here as is Aberama Gold, but Crimson Sand, Lequinto and the fast finisher Embour all drop down from Class 2.

Last year's winner of this race, Jack's Point and Crimson Sand have been off track the longest at 274 & 243 days respectively and both make debuts for their new yards here.

Baldomero is the only one yet to win at this trip, but hasn't yet tackled it and has won over 7f. Laheg is the only Lingfield debutant on display and of his rivals, Baldomero, Dora Penny, Lequinto and Tolstoy have yet to score here after 13 combined attempts. Embour won here over 5f (and over 6f on turf), but Crimson Sand, Jack's Point, Tyger Bay, Aberama Gold and Count Otto are all former course and distance winners.

It's a competitive field with the assessor only rating top weight Baldomero 6lbs better than bottom weight Count Otto, so William Carver's 3lb allowance on Tyger Bay could be very handy.

Most of these have experienced similar conditions before and here's how they've got on...

That's largely satisfactory, if not exactly spectacular. Most of them have done well enough, so let's look at the negatives, which for me are Baldomero's 1 from 10 on Standard going, Lequinto's record at class/track and Aberama Gold at class/trip. The latter is shown as being 8lbs below his last A/W win, but that was here over course and distance just before Christmas 2020! He has made the frame just once in 15 A/W starts since then. He has won on turf off just 2lbs higher than this as recently as five months ago, but has toiled away from grass.

I'm going to look at place form, though, before I discard any of these from my reckoning...

...and this is more useful/insightful for me. You don't win if you don't make the frame and the upturn in Baldomero's numbers for example suggest he's a better horse than just wins might show. I don't make too much fuss about field size, if I'm honest, but when considering place form, I only really want to be on runners with at least 2 'greens' from the four going/class/course/distance tabs, which for this race leaves me with (in draw order)...

I am a little concerned about Jack's Point form on standard going, even if he did win this race last year off the same mark as today. He has only raced three times since, failing to make the frame and was beaten by over 16 lengths when last home of seven at Chelmsford nine months ago. I really don't fancy his chance on yard debut, so I'm down to five spread across the track (Crimson Sand will run from #11) where the lower the draw the better chance of winning/placing...

However, that's not exactly true, as stall 1 hasn't fared as well due to the bend, I'd presume, which isn't great for Laheg. The stalls 2 to 8 corridor looks the place to be and that's where four of my six are and although high draws haven't had the best of it, box 11 of 11 has still done reasonably well, but I suspect that Crimson Sand would have to get out pretty sharpish to get near the front early on to stand much chance of landing this, especially based on this...

...which, in turn, removes any element of surprise from this...

And to see who the front runner might be, we check the pace scores from the field's last four races...

...where I suspect Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg will be the most prominent.

Summary

So, the three I've whittled it down to are Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg, although I have a sneaking suspicion that Tyger Bay might go well here back at Lingfield. Crimson Sand is ultra-consistent at making the frame on the A/W with a pair of fourth placed finishes his worst results in a dozen outings. He's currently 8/1 with Hills, but some firms are paying four places and that would make him a decent enough E/W pick.

Baldomero is the one that I think might win, he has a good record over 7f and with a fairly brisk pace expected here, he could well win over 6f at the first time of asking, but Laheg will pose some questions for sure. He comes off a 10-week break during which he was gelded and he's 2 from 3 over 6f on the A/W, having won quite cosily last time out. This pair are 7/2 and 11/2 respectively and they're ones to focus on, I'd have thought.

Please note, I'm away on business with my other job for a couple of days, so my next piece will be a preview of Tuesday's racing.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/02/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded no UK qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Southwell
  • 3.15 Southwell
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.45 Kempton
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

And the best of those (on paper, at least) for me to cover looks like being the 6.15 Chelmsford. Just six are set to go to post for this Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

ABSOLUTE RULER drops down a class here and wears cheekpieces for the second time, but they had little effect last time out as he was last home of seven, beaten by 19 lengths over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago. Hard to see him getting involved here and his yard are on a 20+ losing run (as of 3pm Thursday).

FAST STYLE has made the frame in five of seven A/W starts, winning twice, both over a mile at Kempton and Newcastle. Last won three starts ago and was subsequently only beaten by a neck over 1m½f at Wolverhampton at today's class/mark. Wasn't as good at Kempton LTO, but he was up in class that day and now drops back down. This is, however, 1½f further than any of his other A/W efforts.

TARAVARA won at Southwell by a neck over a mile two months ago, but could only manage to finish 10th of 14 back at the same course and distance next/last time out a month ago. That's his only win in twenty career starts and probably won't win this either, even if his yard have a good 1-year (4 from 10) and 5-year (10 from 37) record on this track.

JENSON BENSON is one of just two previous course winners, having landed a Class 6, 7f handicap here nine months ago. He was beaten by a length and a half after being forced wide at Wolverhampton 18 days ago, but he's better than that as typified by three narrow defeats from his previous four outings and is now a pound lower than when sent off as an even money favourite here over a mile last May is a 0.75 length defeat when sent for home a little too late.

GIORGIO VASARI doesn't win many, as shown by a 1 in 16 record on the A/W, but since that win two months ago, which came off the back of a 230-day absence, he has been running consistently well. He won off a mark of 52, but then finished 2232 off marks of 57, 58, 58 and 61 before a below par effort at Wolverhampton last time out in a falsely run race. The step back up in trip might help but others hold more appeal. Wears first-time cheekpieces.

ENGRAVE steps up in class after a win over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago ended a run of 15 straight defeats since the last of her five course and distance wins. She has tackled this track and trip 22 times so far and has made the frame in 12 (54.5%) of them, leading to those five wins. She's up 2lbs for that win, but jockey Rose Daws claims 7, more than making up for the rise. Carrying 10 to 25lbs less than her rivals, she's probably the one to beat here and her course/distance form is easily detected on our Instant Expert feature...

Engrave is clearly far more experienced/exposed than the others, but you do sort of know what you're going to get from her. She's the one closest to her last winning mark and is the course/distance specialist albeit historical form. I'm a little concerned at Jenson Benson and Giorgio Vasari having largely failed at this grade and the latter's 'best' A/W form has been on Tapeta.

With such a small field and a 1m2f trip, I suspect the pace of the race might well prove more important than the draw, but let's quickly check if any of the six might have an advantage at the start...

There's not a great deal in it, if truth be told, but given the choice you'd probably want to be in stall 2 (Fast Style) or on the rail (Engrave), but stall 6 hasn't done badly either, so it's really a case of what you do with the draw, because if you dwell from those preferred stalls, you could be in trouble...

...because it's pretty common knowledge (here on Geegeez anyway!) that pace wins the race at Chelmsford as shown by the stats from those races above, so if Fast Style and/or Engrave are fast starters, they might be tough to catch/beat. Sadly for the former, he isn't, but the sole mare in the race is expected to take it on...

...which creates a little dilemma for me!

Summary

I didn't like Absolute Ruler from the off and neither Taravara nor Giorgio Vasari win often enough for my liking, so that's the field halved. I do like the other trio and I suspect there won't be much to choose between the three.

The mare Engrave won last time out, receives bundles of weight all round and is the course and distance specialist. She's got the best pace/draw profile but wasn't in good form prior to that win last time out and now steps up in class. Fast Style has been in better recent form and has a win and two places from four on polytrack. He seems to have the plum draw and has made the frame in all three runs at this grade. The hope here is that he sets off a bit quicker with Engrave inside of him and he did race more prominently at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. As for Jenson Button, he loves the track here but is unproven at this class and also beyond a mile. His recent form hasn't been as good as Fast Style and he may well be too high in the weights.

It might well be that you can throw a blanket over them at the finish, but if I had to side with one, it would be Fast Style. I'm only really concerned about him getting off quickly enough, but with Engrave on his inside, he should get towed along nicely. Engrave has plenty going for her, but the step up in class and an inexperienced rider might be her undoing.

Fast Style was a best priced 7/2 with Hills at 4pm, whilst Engrave was the same price with Bet365. Jenson Button was a surprising (to me, anyway) early favourite at 3/1 with Hills and only 9/4 with Stoke's finest.