Racing Insights, Friday 10/03/23 geegeez.co.uk

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

1.50 Exeter
3.10 Ayr
3.20 Wolverhampton
6.15 Dundalk
8.00 Kempton

...and I think we'll see how track specialist Satin Snake might get on in the 6.00 Kempton, an 8-runner (Porfin doesn't go), Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices Handicap over a right handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

No LTO winners on display here, but feature horses Satin Snake was a runner-up 7 days ago and bottom weight Jupiter Express was also a runner-up 8 days ago. Both also won two starts ago and both have 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from their last five five, making them the 'form horses'. Conversely, The Green Man is winless in 6, Impeach has lost his last 8 and it's a losing streak of 16 races over almost two years for Gobi Sunset.

The two 'form' horses both step up a class here, but The Green Man, Mamillius and Gobi Sunset all drop a level after failing to make the frame on their most recent outings. Stockpyle might need the run after a five-month break during which he was gelded, but aside from Mamillius' three month absence, the others have all raced in the last month with both Satin Snake and Jupiter Express running in March already.

Stockpyle and Satin Snake are the only ones yet to win at this trip, but the latter is just one of two previous winners (finishes of 31211 over 7f!), along with Melly's Flyer who is 2 from 3 over course and distance. In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells me that on the A/W, five of these have won on standard to slow going and four of them have won at Class 4...

Aside from being 0 from 3 at this trip, you can see why Satin Snake is the H4C horse here, Elsewhere, I have worries over Mamillius (class/trip), Impeach (going/class) and Gobi Sunset (generally but class here) and as Mamillius might need the run after a lay-off, Impeach is on a run of 0 from 8 and Gobi Sunset 0 from 16, I'm crossing them off the list here, leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 7 & 8 and in similar past races here at Kempton, this is how the draw has worked out...

.suggesting that Mellys Flyer is at somewhat of a disadvantage and that Satin Snake might also not have the best of it, but good news for The Green Man, if nothing else. 23.5 wins would be par, so stalls 4 & 5 are neither badly nor well considered here. Interestingly, Satin Snake has won here from stall 7 before and also from stall 13, which is somewhere out near Kempton cricket club, so it might well be the race tactics are more important here and they say...

...that the further forward you can race the better from both a win and place perspective, which based on this field's recent endeavours...

...is less good news for The Green Man than before, but some respite for Satin Snake, whose average pace score from his last five visits here is 3.40. We have the draw and the pace covered, but how they interact may also offer some clues, so here's the heat map for this race...

...suggesting that a highly drawn runner's best chance of success is to get out quickly, as Satin Snake has done here in the past. When we combine today's drawn with the field's last four runs anywhere, we get...

...and although those drawn lower than Satin Snake look better placed, he does have the right pace profile if not the best draw.

Summary

It's hard to get away from the two 'form' horses, Satin Snake and Jupiter Express and they might well be the first two home. Satin Snake ticks plenty of boxes, but is relatively poorly drawn (although only two wide of Jupiter) and is 3lbs higher than his last win, which was by 0.75 lengths. Jupiter Express also brings similar form to the table, but lacks experience and was raised 4lbs for a half-length success. He's slightly worse treated than Satin and with his rivals record here at Kempton, it's Satin Snake for me, but Jupiter should definitely make the frame if not the runners-up spot.

Sadly, as I'm a bit later (6.15pm) than normal, the price on Satin Snake has gone and he's now the 9/4 fav although that's where I'd have him, along with the 7/2 about Jupiter Express. The bookies are giving us anything, but they're being fair here and the reverse forecast might pay reasonably.

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