Racing Insights, Friday 10/02/23
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...
...have yielded no UK qualifiers for Friday...
...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
- 1.40 Southwell
- 3.15 Southwell
- 3.55 Dundalk
- 4.45 Kempton
- 6.15 Chelmsford
And the best of those (on paper, at least) for me to cover looks like being the 6.15 Chelmsford. Just six are set to go to post for this Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...
ABSOLUTE RULER drops down a class here and wears cheekpieces for the second time, but they had little effect last time out as he was last home of seven, beaten by 19 lengths over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago. Hard to see him getting involved here and his yard are on a 20+ losing run (as of 3pm Thursday).
FAST STYLE has made the frame in five of seven A/W starts, winning twice, both over a mile at Kempton and Newcastle. Last won three starts ago and was subsequently only beaten by a neck over 1m½f at Wolverhampton at today's class/mark. Wasn't as good at Kempton LTO, but he was up in class that day and now drops back down. This is, however, 1½f further than any of his other A/W efforts.
TARAVARA won at Southwell by a neck over a mile two months ago, but could only manage to finish 10th of 14 back at the same course and distance next/last time out a month ago. That's his only win in twenty career starts and probably won't win this either, even if his yard have a good 1-year (4 from 10) and 5-year (10 from 37) record on this track.
JENSON BENSON is one of just two previous course winners, having landed a Class 6, 7f handicap here nine months ago. He was beaten by a length and a half after being forced wide at Wolverhampton 18 days ago, but he's better than that as typified by three narrow defeats from his previous four outings and is now a pound lower than when sent off as an even money favourite here over a mile last May is a 0.75 length defeat when sent for home a little too late.
GIORGIO VASARI doesn't win many, as shown by a 1 in 16 record on the A/W, but since that win two months ago, which came off the back of a 230-day absence, he has been running consistently well. He won off a mark of 52, but then finished 2232 off marks of 57, 58, 58 and 61 before a below par effort at Wolverhampton last time out in a falsely run race. The step back up in trip might help but others hold more appeal. Wears first-time cheekpieces.
ENGRAVE steps up in class after a win over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago ended a run of 15 straight defeats since the last of her five course and distance wins. She has tackled this track and trip 22 times so far and has made the frame in 12 (54.5%) of them, leading to those five wins. She's up 2lbs for that win, but jockey Rose Daws claims 7, more than making up for the rise. Carrying 10 to 25lbs less than her rivals, she's probably the one to beat here and her course/distance form is easily detected on our Instant Expert feature...
Engrave is clearly far more experienced/exposed than the others, but you do sort of know what you're going to get from her. She's the one closest to her last winning mark and is the course/distance specialist albeit historical form. I'm a little concerned at Jenson Benson and Giorgio Vasari having largely failed at this grade and the latter's 'best' A/W form has been on Tapeta.
With such a small field and a 1m2f trip, I suspect the pace of the race might well prove more important than the draw, but let's quickly check if any of the six might have an advantage at the start...
There's not a great deal in it, if truth be told, but given the choice you'd probably want to be in stall 2 (Fast Style) or on the rail (Engrave), but stall 6 hasn't done badly either, so it's really a case of what you do with the draw, because if you dwell from those preferred stalls, you could be in trouble...
...because it's pretty common knowledge (here on Geegeez anyway!) that pace wins the race at Chelmsford as shown by the stats from those races above, so if Fast Style and/or Engrave are fast starters, they might be tough to catch/beat. Sadly for the former, he isn't, but the sole mare in the race is expected to take it on...
...which creates a little dilemma for me!
Summary
I didn't like Absolute Ruler from the off and neither Taravara nor Giorgio Vasari win often enough for my liking, so that's the field halved. I do like the other trio and I suspect there won't be much to choose between the three.
The mare Engrave won last time out, receives bundles of weight all round and is the course and distance specialist. She's got the best pace/draw profile but wasn't in good form prior to that win last time out and now steps up in class. Fast Style has been in better recent form and has a win and two places from four on polytrack. He seems to have the plum draw and has made the frame in all three runs at this grade. The hope here is that he sets off a bit quicker with Engrave inside of him and he did race more prominently at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. As for Jenson Button, he loves the track here but is unproven at this class and also beyond a mile. His recent form hasn't been as good as Fast Style and he may well be too high in the weights.
It might well be that you can throw a blanket over them at the finish, but if I had to side with one, it would be Fast Style. I'm only really concerned about him getting off quickly enough, but with Engrave on his inside, he should get towed along nicely. Engrave has plenty going for her, but the step up in class and an inexperienced rider might be her undoing.
Fast Style was a best priced 7/2 with Hills at 4pm, whilst Engrave was the same price with Bet365. Jenson Button was a surprising (to me, anyway) early favourite at 3/1 with Hills and only 9/4 with Stoke's finest.