Tag Archive for: H4C Report

Racing Insights, Friday 26/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.15 Sandown
  • 1.27 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...but I'm going elsewhere for today's race preview and plumping for one of the day's joint highest rated contests, the 3.35 Sandown, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground that will hopefully throw up some interesting E/W options from the following...

Issam, Spring Note and Clondaw Royale all won last time out. Chez Hans was a faller on his last run, having won each of his previous five, but an 878 day absence casts doubts on him here. Mullinaree has won four of his last seven, Lord of Cheshire os three from five and a runner-up LTO, Issam is two from three, as is East India Express, whilst Bashers Reflection is three from five.

So, plenty in decent nick, but top weight Jatiluwih is the only one without a win in seven, having been beaten in eleven on the bounce since a win at Cheltenham way back in November 2019. Last seen on New Year's Day finishing last of ten, he can join Chez Hans on my reject list, as can Robin's Dream who makes just a second handicap start some 382 days after his last run, when only third of four runners. Should he actually run here, it will be only his second outing since the end of May 2021, so he's likely to be rusty.

The two long-standing absentees aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last four to eight weeks. Of the ten still under consideration, three (Gytename, Sholokjack and Bashers Reflection) are down a class, whilst three others (Lord of Cheshire, Clondaw Royale (hcp debut today) & Havaila are up one class with four
(Mullinaree, Issam, Spring Note, & handicap debutant East India Express) having raced at this Class 3 level.

None of this field have won here at Sandown before, but only Sholokjack, Issam, Robin's Dream and Havaila (twice) have run here before, sharing just five appearances. Trip-wise, only Issam, East India Express and Robin's Dream are yet to win over a similar trip and we can assess going/class/course/distance records at a glance via Instant Expert...

...which despite a fair smattering of red, doesn't hold too many horror stories. Lord of Cheshire carries 10lbs more than his last win, but is in good nick. Spring Note is up 13lbs for cantering home 16 lengths clear last time, but won still have won comfortably off today's mark.

Despite the soft ground, I'd expect there to be quite a bit of early pace to this one, if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...with at least half of the field usually keen to get on with things. The danger, of course is that they can't all lead, so some might end up doing too much too soon. Sholokjack is a confirmed hold up despite leading early four starts ago. That's the only non hold-up run in his 10-race career so far and he fell that day too! he's probably he only real hold-up horse in the contest, yet our Pace Analyser suggests that this wouldn't be a bad tactic, as it's front-runners who have tended to struggle here...

Summary

If I'm honest, I don't expect the field to race to the pace chart above, after all they can't all be classed as prominent runners, unless they run in a pack, so I've gone back to Instant Expert and looked at the place stats to eradicate any runner with any red for going/class/course/distance...

...from which I think Spring Note and Issam are my best chances of finding a winner and Lord of Cheshire / Mullinaree the ones I expect to go off at a decent price and have a chance of making the frame with bookies paying four places.

The truth is that all eight have a decent chance of making the frame, but I can't suggest backing all eight, can I?

Spring Note was very impressive last time out and sauntered home well clear of the pack whilst Issam always seems to be there or thereabouts, rarely running a bad race. Lord of Cheshire has finished 11612 in his last five and should find this a little easier than the slog through heavy ground at Haydock he faced when a good second of eight conceding 17lbs to a horse completing a 37-day hat-trick. As for Mullinaree, he's likely to be a big price, but he relishes this trip and is only 2lbs higher than when completing a five-timer at Hexham last June.

Let's check the market...at 5.30pm Thursday, my quartet were best priced as follows, Spring Note 4/1, Issam 7/1, Lord of Cheshire 8/1 and Mullinaree at 28/1! I expected Spring Note to be around 3/1, so I'm very happy with 4's and with bookies paying four places, I think my other three are all worth considering as E/W options.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a pair of qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Market Rasen
  • 1.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.10 Lingfield
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...but sadly like racing in general, the free list has been decimated by the weather. That said, the H4C report race is the most valuable UK race to have survived the weather and it's the joint highest rated, so let's a look at the 2.15 Wolverhampton featuring Follow Your Heart, Beauty Choice and eight other runners in a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that the three heading the market at 2.45pm (Al Farabi, Johnny James & Follow Your Heart) would be the ones to best here, but the market isn't always right, nor are my initial thoughts, so let's dive into the card.

Our two featured runners are top and bottom weights here, rated some 17lbs apart, but it's two runners from the middle of the weights, Eden Storm and Wiseacre, who are our LTO winners today. Johnny James and Al Farabi were both runners-up, though, whilst Sir Maxi was third home. All ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings and only Wiseacre has been off the track for six weeks or longer and may well need the run after a 221 day absence.

The card has denoted the bottom three in the weights, Sir Maxi, How Impressive and Beauty Choice as fast finishers, but the latter of that trio steps up a class here. Wiseacre return from a long break to make a yard debut for Des Donovan and also has to contend with stepping up two classes, but both Follow Your Heart and The Turpinator drop two classes.

The well fancied Al Farabi makes a second handicap appearance here following a 1-length defeat on debut three weeks ago, but like all bar Johnny James and the returning Wiseacre, he has already won over today's trip, whilst our four previous Wolverhampton victors, Follow Your Heart, Visibility, Eden Storm and Beauty Choice, have all won over course and distance, giving us a good smattering of green on Instant Expert...

...where How Impressive looks less than impressive (sorry!). There are doubts about Visibility at this level (1 from 11), but despite a fair amount of red, no other real causes for concern. In fact, only Visibilty, Wiseacre and How Impressive fail to have any green from the going/class/course/distance stats and I'd probably rule them out now.

Over the last five years in similar races, those drawn low to middle (especially those in stalls 2 to 6) have fared best...

...whilst those races have rally suited those keen to 'get on with things' early...

...with low to mid-drawn prominent runners faring best...

If we then look at how these runners have tackled their last few races...

Summary

It looks like Johnny James and Al Farabi fit the pace/draw requirements best here. They're both drawn low and both will be keen to hit the front end early. Wiseacre may well attempt to challenge for the lead, but he'll have to come from stall 10 and probably won't be fit enough to maintain his effort.

Both Johnny James and Al Farabi are in great form and I'd expect them to be the first two home. I have them very evenly matched, so it could go either way. That said Johnny james would offer better value at 5/1 than Al Farabi's 5/2, so make of that what you will.

You can then make a case for several of these to make the frame, but as I prefer to take 8/1 or better for an E/W bet, it does rule a few out, but one of our featured horses, Beauty Choice, might be the one, as I think he's better than 10/1 might suggest.

Racing Insights, Friday 12/01/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.50 Huntingdon
  • 3.07 Sedgefield
  • 7.15 Dundalk
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

It's not the best race in the world (or even on the card!), but it makes sense to try and 'marry up' the daily free feature with the daily free cards, so we're going to look at Hollie Doyle's mount, English Spirit in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

ENGLISH SPIRIT ended an 8-race losing spell with a course and distance success here last time out a couple of months ago, taking his career A/W record to 3 wins from 4 places from 17. Only up 2lbs for the win

LUNARSCAPE is noted as being a fast finisher and now ears cheekpieces for the first time in what will be just her second outing for her current yard, having finished third here over a furlong longer just over a fortnight ago. Has placed 223 in her last three, but is winless in nine.

SURPRISE PICTURE has won over both 6f and 7f at this track, but is winless in seven since his 7f success back in September. Now 2lbs lower than that win, so could be dangerous.

ADMIRAL NELSON won at Newcastle (7f) two starts/a month ago after six indifferent defeats, but failed to back up that return to form when only 8th of 10 at Southwell three days before Christmas. Now goes beyond a mile for the first time in his 26-race career.

PEMBROKESHIRE won over 7f at Musselburgh in mid-October, but has only finished 7th of 10 and then 6th of 7 in two runs over a mile on Newcastle's tapeta track since. He has failed to make the frame in any of seven A/W runs to date and others look a better option.

MR BOSON is a five-race maiden (2 x flat, 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced since May of last year, when just 11th of 13, beaten by over 12 lengths a 1m handicap at Windsor. probably best left watched here.

ASGARD'S CAPTAIN is the other LTO winner in the pack having produced a career-best run to land a 7-runner handicap over 1m1f at Musselburgh on quick ground last August. He's up 14lbs here, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, this might be best left as a watching brief on his first run for new handler Dylan Cunha.

KINGWELL is our other C&D winner in the field, having scored here at Class 6 11 months ago. He's up in class today and hasn't won any of six since that C&D triumph last February. Was fourth of six over track and trip last time out and a similar run won't be good enough here either.

Past relevant form courtesy of Instant Expert looks like this...

...which paints a pretty bleak picture, doesn't it? I know these are Class 5/6 runners, so i wasn't expecting much, but featured horse English Spirit aside, only Surprise Picture makes much appeal, especially at 2lbs below his last win. I think we're going to need the place stats...

These do at least suggest that the field are pretty familiar with the task in hand and whilst they've not been prolific winners, they have made the frame on several occasions. My usual reaction to a graphic like the above would be to remove Admiral Nelson, Pembrokeshire and Mr Boson from my deliberations.

In previous past races, it seems that a higher draw has been more beneficial than a low one...

...which is great news for English Spirit but another blow for Admiral Nelson, who didn't fare too well on Instant Expert. If we then look at how those 300+ races above were won...

...we see that those setting the tempo do very well, but the stalking prominent runners have an even better record of picking the leaders off late on, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...suggest that Kingwell will be that pace-maker who could then become vulnerable to the likes of English Spirit and Mr Boson, whilst we should also remember that Lunarscape was noted as a fast finisher. She might well be left with too much work to do, but if things drop right, she'll be aiming for the places late on.

Summary

English Spirit has a great record here at Wolverhampton, as documented by the H4C report, he comes here off the back of a win and was the eye-catcher on Instant Expert. He seems to have the plum high draw and the ideal prominent running style to win here again and I'm struggling to see who might beat him. he currently (4.50pm) trades at 3/1, which is actually a little longer than I thought he might be, so that's good news.

Asgards Captain is the 5/2 fav and that seems a bit short for a horse making a yard debut up 14lb, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, so he's not for me. I suspect Lunarscape will go well here, having made the frame in each of her last three. She finishes well but might come from too far off the pace. She's good for the frame, I think but probably not the win.

I generally want 8/1 or bigger before I place an E/W bet and with that in mind, if i was to have one here, Surprise Picture might fit the bill, now that he's 2lbs lower than his last win here, but I wouldn't be digging too deep into my pockets for that one.

I'm at a family event from 2pm Friday, so no column for Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. Back Sunday with a preview of a race for Monday, so have a great weekend.

Racing Insight, Friday 05/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers...

...and I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.02 Southwell
  • 1.12 Southwell
  • 1.55 Musselburgh
  • 3.55 Ludlow

...and the highest-rated of those six races above is the 1.12 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

Only Haku won last time out, although Heathen was a runner-up having won two starts ago, as did Chase The Dollar. Nolton Cross & Rhythmic Intent are other LTO runners-up and Ensured finished third on his last run, albeit some 937 days ago in mid-June 2021! Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Buxted Too and Achnamara all coming here on losing runs of seven or more races (9, 14, 8 & 10 to be exact!). Haku's LTO win was by a head over the re-opposing Nolton Cross and the runner-up is now 1lb better off.

We know Ensured has been off track for nearly 31 months, but the remainder have all raced fairly recently. Valsad has had 80 days rest and Night Bear returns from a 53-day break, but the others have all raced in the last four weeks.

Rhythmic Intent is noted as a fast finisher and he, Ensured (now making a second handicap appearance) and Achnamara are the only runners not moving class today, as Midnight Lion last raced in a Listed hurdle and both Heathen & Valsad (yard debut for Jamie Osborne today) are dropping down from Class 2.

We then have five runners; Nolton Cross, Haku (in first-time cheekpieces), Buxted Too, Chase The Dollar and Night Bear all stepping up a level from Class 4.

As for previous successes, Ensured, Midnight Lion and Chase The Dollar have yet to win over this trip, but the latter has won here over 1m6f, whilst the other four previous course winners; Valsad, Nolton Cross, Heathen and Night Bear have all won over course and distance, as seen below in Instant Expert...

...where despite being winless in nine starts, Nolton Cross is the immediate eyecatcher and he comes here off the back of a narrow defeat. Most of the top six in the weights are proven at this going, course and trip and I suspect the winner and placers are amongst that half dozen. Five of the six are drawn in stalls 1-7 with only Nolton Cross detached from the group out in 11 of 11, but that shouldn't be an issue as there's no real discernible draw bias here...

...not that I expect one over a mile and a half. There are plenty of reasons not to win but the draw over such a trip shouldn't be one of them and nor should race tactics, according to our pace analyser...

Yes, front runners have been a bit of a target, but they're probably only one winner shy of parity with the other three running styles. On our course profile, jockey David Probert says that this is a fair track, suggesting that the better horses win more often irrespective of pace and/or draw.

Summary

If pace and draw aren't as important here as they normally are, then it's a case of finding those in form and best suited to the task. Instant Expert has led me to believe the top six in the weights is where I should focus, but Buxted Too hasn't run well for 18 months now and Valsad looks too high in the weights at just one pound lower than his last two results of 7th of 12 and last of seven. I'll discount this pair now, leaving me with just four to consider ie Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Haku and Heathen.

Of this four, there's probably not much between them. Haku narrowly beat Nolton Cross last time out, but I fancy those placings to be reversed with the latter now better off at the weights. Heathen has been running really well of late, so I suppose it's Rhythmic Intent who misses out. He did run well but that's the nearest he has got to winning in the last 27 months and whilst he could go well here again, he's the odd one out for me.

Of my final trio, there's not a great deal to choose between them, but if pushed the 11/2 offered about Nolton Cross at 5.20pm makes most sense.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 29/12/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 3.10 Limerick
  • 3.25 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Southwell

That sole UK race above isn't a terrible one, but I think I'll take a look at the day's highest-rated UK race instead. That's the 1.40 Doncaster and it's an 8-runner Listed chase contest for Mares aged 4 and over. There's 16 fences to be jumped over a left-handed 2m4½f on good to soft ground and here's how they'll line up...

Zambella has won this race in each of the last two years and arrives here on the back of a win last time out, as does Pink Legend. Likely favourite Limerick Lace was a Grade 3 runner-up last month and has 3 wins from her last 6 outings, as do Zambella and La Renommee whilst Pink Legend is four from six! Royale Margaux is the only one without a win in six, and as a maiden beaten at Class 3 last time out, she looks set to struggle here.

She's up two classes today and looks the weakest in this field; Walk In Clover (who ran in a race we covered a fortnight ago) is also up two classes after failing to make the frame and is also probably one to discount early. Top-weight Fantastic Lady also steps up in class despite labouring somewhat at Aintree in a Class 2 handicap.

She is however (as you'll see below shortly) just one of two previous course winners having landed a Class 4 Novice Hurdle over 2m3½f way back in March 2021. Our other course winner is Zambella, of course, who has won this race in each of the last two years. The trip, however, is a familiar one to this field, as all bar Carole's Pass and Royale Margaux have already won at simlar distances, as shown here on Instant Expert, where no horse ticks all the boxes...

Zambella is the standout for me here, despite only making the frame twice in six efforts without winning on good to soft ground. If truth be told, she'd like it softer than it currently is, but she knows the lie of the land here. Pink Legend is a winner of five Class 1 chases and that's not to be sniffed at. Her record on good to soft is decent enough, but she's also 4 from 6 on good ground, so her chances might improve in this drier weather, especially if the winds help to dry out the track.

Zambella's approach to winning this race the last two years has been to ping the tapes and make all and this would certainly seem to be generally right the approach over this course and distance on good to soft ground...

...with those racing in mid-division or further back struggling to land a blow. 60% of leaders manage to hold on for a place with 40% of those placers going on to win, which is another vote of confidence for Pink Legend as well as Zambella...

...as they look the likely pace makers here.

Summary

Zambella won a Listed event at Aintree by seventeen lengths last time out but would prefer it softer here. That said, she's well versed at track and trip and scores really well on Instant Expert. She'll be up with the pace and she'd be the one for me here.

Pink Legend also scored well on Instant Expert and has won five Class 1 chases including last time out and two of her last three. She's also got a good pace profile for this race and is a very likely placer here today. Limerick Lace will be well fancied by the market, but has come up short on her last few Class 1 outings and would also prefer softer ground.

I think she's the best of the rest and may well in time emerge as the best in this race, but I prefer Zambella today.

Sadly, the early (3.30pm) market also likes the three I've highlighted...

...but it's Zambella for me and no E/W pick unless Pink Legend drifts somewhat!

Racing Insights, Friday 15/12/2023

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Doncaster
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think I'll have a bash at the 1.50 Cheltenham, a 13-runner, Class 3, Mares' Handicap Chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Only Mad About Sally managed to win last time out, but all bar the top four in the weights, La Malmason, Happy D'Ex, Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover have won at least one of their last five and all thirteen have won at least one of their last seven. La Malmason, Walk In Clover, Eureka Creek, Game On For Glory, I Am Gonna Be and Pougne Aminta did all at least have top three finishes in their latest runs.

We have two runners (Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover) dropping a class here with the former running for the first time since wind surgery. Moving the other direction and stepping up in class are Mad About Sally, I Am Gonna Be, Malaita, Brianna Rose, Game On for Glory and Pougne Aminta with the last two named now making just a second handicap outing, as do La Malmason and Happy D'Ex.

Happy D'Ex has been off the track the longest at 187 days, during which time she has moved yards from Gordon Elliot to be with new handler Sheila Lewis, whose last 29 runners have all been beaten with only two even making the frame. The rest of this field have all raced in the last seven weeks.

Walk In Clover is the only course and distance winner in the race, having landed a Grade 2 contest here in April off a mark just 4lbs lower than today, whilst Malaita won a 2m4½f hurdle here on the same day. In fact, only Royale Margeaux, Game On For Glory, Mad About Sally and Brianna rose have yet to score over a similar trip to this one, whilst Instant Expert tells us...

...that this is a fairly inexperienced bunch of chasers, but that Lilith has strung together some decent efforts over fences to date...

She tends to want to be at the head of affairs and has gone well enough to be able to hang on for a place in 9 of 15 starts over fences (inc 3 wins, the latest of which was off today's mark), but she might not have it all her own way as the pace profiles from the field's last four outings...

...suggest that Malaita and Pougne Aminta might want to keep her company upfront and our Pace Analyser says that this would be the ideal approach here...

Summary

There's not much evidence of it above, but I think the main players here are going to be Grade 2 course and distance winner Walk In Clover, LTO winner Mad About Sally, course winner Malaita and the Irish challenger La Malmason who was third last time out to a subsequent Grade 1 runner-up. These look to be the best horses in the race and this is sadly reflected in the 6.30pm market where they are best-priced at 4/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 3/1.

I expect this to be a fairly tight contest, but if pushed for a winner here, I'd take the 4/1 about Walk In Clover with Mad About Sally a real E/W contender.

From the evidence we did have above, Lilith was the standout for me and I think she's better than her current 20/1 price ticket. She's thoroughly consistent and I'm happy to put her last effort down to needing a run and at 20's she could well be a nice E/W play, especially as most firms are paying four places and Sky go to five!

Racing Insights, Friday 17/11/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers for Friday...

...plus I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races if needed...

  • 12.50 Wexford
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.50 Newcastle
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...but I think I'll stick with my H4C report qualifiers and have a look at Pockley and the 3.40 Newcastle, an 11-runner, 3yo+ A/W sprint handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Strong Johnson, Dickieburd and featured runner Pockely all come here off the back of a recent (7-10 days) win, whilst Bergerac, Treacherous and Ramon Di Loria were all placed on their last outings.

Bergerac, Venturous, Treacherous and Ramon di Loria are all winless in at least seven races (9, 19, 10 and 13 respectively) to be precise and the latter surely won't be helped by stepping up a class. Bergerac does, at least, drop down a class, as do Brooklyn Nine Nine and Be Proud.

Eight of the field have raced in the last fortnight or so and even Be Proud, Princess Karine (sole filly in the race), Venturous and Brooklyn Nine Nine shouldn't be rusty after short breaks of 20, 48, 59 and 68 days either.

Bergerac is the only runner yet to win at either track or trip with only Brooklyn Nine Nine and Treacherous of his rivals still seeking a first win at 5f. They have both, however, already won here at Newcastle over 6f, as has Dickieburd. Strong Johnson, Venturous (won this race in 2020), Be Proud, Ramon di Loria and featured runner Pockley have all scored over course and distance.

Instant Expert suggests that bottom weight Ramon di Loria might well be the least best suited to the conditions here...

...and his won record at going/course/trip are a concern, as are Treacherous' numbers on standard going and Be Proud's return at Class 4 in terms of wins. From the above, featured horse Pockley (as expected) and top weight Strong Johnson probably make most appeal on those numbers, but let's see if the place stats suggest any have been unlucky...

Well, from a place perspective, bottom weight Ramon di Loria certainly looks a different proposition and in draw order, these are the ones that make most appeal from the place data...

...and our draw analyser says that the first three of those seven might find it hardest to win here based on previous races...

That said, I'm always a little wary of leaning too heavily on past draw data for straight sprint, where there really shouldn't be much in it and it really should be fastest runner wins and this is backed up to some extent by the pace analysis of those 90-odd races above...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...we see that there aren't many happy to set the pace, but that Strong Johnson and Princess Karine look like being able to overcome a seemingly adverse low draw by getting away sharply.

Summary

I think I want to be focusing on the seven runners highlighted by the place data on Instant Expert and I'm going to stick my neck out and say I'm more interested in pace than I am in the draw here and I'm going to put Strong Johnson and Princess Karine forward as my main fancies for this one. They're both in good form, but Strong Johnson looks in better nick and beat Princess Karine on her last run. Only Bet365 have priced this up as of 3.00pm and they go 6/1 and 7/1 respectively and I'd take them to finish in that order. I might split stakes.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 03/11/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a trio of qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.32 Ffos Las
  • 2.07 Ffos Las
  • 2.13 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.52 Ffos Las
  • 5.30 Dundalk

...the weather has again decimated my options, but we do have an excellent contest left on that list, so I'm going to look at No Risk Des Flos and the 3.00 Wetherby, an 8-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

Arthur's Quay and Famous Bridge both won their last race, but they're up one and two classes respectively, although the latter comes here on a hat-trick. War Lord and Dubai Days are also up one class here, but the latter did finish as runner-up having won two starts ago. No Risk Des Flos also won two races ago and was third at this grade last time out, whilst Shan Blue, War Lord and Frero Banbou have all been beaten in each of their last seven outings.

None of the field have raced in the last 14 weeks and War Lord runs for the first time since undergoing wind surgery. Frero Banbou is the only one in the field without a win over a similar trip, whilst four horses have won previously here at Wetherby. Shan Blue and No Risk Des Flos are course and distance winners, whilst Famous Bridge's last two runs have both been wins on this track over 2m6f and 3m½f, so he's very much down in trip today. Dubai Day's win here was in a 2m, Class 4 handicap hurdle way back in February 2021 and the entire field's form at today's going, class, tack and trip are documented by Instant Expert...

...where it's good to see a few soft ground successes, although Frero Banbou's 0/4 is a strange one, as his two career wins have been on good to soft and heavy! He has also struggled to win at Class1, as have Shan Blue and War Lord. Our three track winners have clocked up six wins between them over fences and from just nine efforts, so it's not just a case of throwing enough mud at the door to make it stick. Trip-wise, Gloire D'Athon's record is fantastic and he's two from two at Class 2. I'm now going see if he made the frame in those two defeats over this type of trip...

...well, he placed in one of the two and that's a sterling effort. The only two I have reservations about from the above are Frero Banbou (going) and Arthur's Quay (trip).

Twenty-odd similar past races haven't shown a massive pace bias from a win perspective...

...but you'd probably want to be on one that races prominently or even leads and based on the field's most recent efforts...

...I'm not convinced if any/many will want to take it on and we might well get a falsely run race, which I find suits the mid-division type of runner best, as they've less ground to make up than usual.

Summary

With the pace projections hinting that mid-divisional runners might go well and the fact that he's got a great record over this trip, I'm instantly drawn towards Gloire D'Athon. He wasn't at this best at Market Rasen last time out, but he drops back 3f to his preferred type of trip. He gets soft ground and is unexposed at Class 1 (but 2 from 2 at C2) and whilst maybe not an obvious pick, 10/1 with both Bet365 and Hills seems too big to ignore for an E/W bet.

As for a winner, I think I fancy Famous Bridge to continue his fine form and complete a Wetherby hat-trick, he's only up 3lbs for a relatively comfortable win here in March and the 6f drop in trip should help. He's currently 9/2 with both Bet365 & Hills, which is interesting, as I thought he'd be around the 3/1 mark.

Shan Blue is the current 3/1 fav and whilst he has undoubted talent, he hasn't raced since being pulled up last Boxing Day and concedes weight all round. he has been well beaten or failed to complete each of his last five and 3/1 doesn't appeal to me, although a big run wouldn't be a massive surprise.

No Risk Des Flos has obvious appeal based on the H4C report, but he's no E/W pick at 6's, so I'll leave it there. They're the four I see as the main protagonists and I'll back two.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/10/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier, who'll hope to be on the right track (sorry!)...

...this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 3.55 Cheltenham
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 5.05 Cheltenham
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Wolverhampton

My sole H4C report qualifier looks like being involved in a fairly competitive affair despite the low standard, so let's take a look at On The Right Track and the 7.15 Wolverhampton. It's a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners here, but featured runner On The Right Track has made the frame in three of his last four and is the only runner to have won any of their last seven starts (aside from Ezmerellda, who has only raced five times so far, failing to place in any). Elsewhere Doublethetrouble and Lord Torranga have been knocking on the door with a string of runner-up finishes, whilst Zivaniya also made the frame on his last outing.

He now drops down from Class 5, as do On The Right Track, Haven Lady and Eagle's Realm with bottom-weight Northern Rose dropping two classes for her second run in a handicap. She's one of four (Zivaniya, Ezmerellda & Corsican Caper being the other) three year olds in the field and they all receive a 7lb weight allowance for their age.

The majority of the field are wearing some form of headgear/equipment, but this is a first time in cheekpieces for the in-form Lord Torranaga who, like On The Right Track and Kittens Dream, is a former Wolverhampton winner with the latter being our only previous course and distance winner, although Lord Torranaga has won over 1m6f at Catterick.

No excuses for fitness today, as all have had at least two weeks rest, but none should be rusty either, as they've all raced in the last four weeks, whilst relative past form (courtesy of Instant Expert, of course) looks like this...

...which On The Track aside is a pretty bleak picture. Kittens Dream and Havens Lady have had the most attempts to put numbers on the board, but both seem totally unsuited to this task ahead, so I'm crossing their names off straightaway from a win perspective. The above graphic pretty much speaks for it self, but I should add that despite a 0 from 8 record at Class 6 on the A/W, Lord Torranaga has three wins and two further places from nine at Class 5 and as you'll now see below, has a 50% place strike rate in those eight Class 6 defeats...

...and he now looks a viable rival to On The Right Track. They'll race fairly close together in stalls 6 and 8 of 10 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn highest in the past...

..but those races haven't been particularly kind to front-runners...

...which looks like being another blow to Haven Lady's chances if the last three races are anything to go by...

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the draw stats, the two I'd want to be with would be On The Right Track, who is proven at this venue, and Lord Torranaga who has been banging on the door for some time. The pace stats have done little to dissuade me from this position and I'm sticking with those two.

I suspect there'll be very little between them and I'd expect both to be priced around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark in a fairly open market and if pushed to pick a winner, I'm going to marginally side with my H4C report runner On the Right Track.

Without any prices to go at, it's hard to suggest an E/W punt, but I'd expect Doublethetrouble to continue his recent fine form and be the main danger to the other two.

Racing Insights, Friday 20/10/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Haydock
  • 2.25 Haydock
  • 4.35 Uttoxeter
  • 5.38 Redcar
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

Storm Babet continues to cause major disruption to meetings across Britain, so Fakenham and Uttoxeter's Friday cards must pass 7.30am inspections before being allowed to go ahead with Haydock already postponed. With this in mind, the A/W might be a safer place to focus on and we might as well have a look at Spirit of Ash from the H4C report above. She's one of three females in the 5.00 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Our featured runner Spirit of Ash was a winner here over 1m4½f just a week ago, making her the only LTO winner in this field, but most of her opponents have at least one win in their recent form, although Yasmin from York have lost her last seven and both Spritzin and Easter Island are maidens after eight and five races respectively.

Sophar Sogood is down three classes here after being well beaten at Class 2, but he's still a class higher than when winning two starts ago, whilst top weight Red Force One is down one level. Spirit of Ash goes the other way, moving up one class from her Class 6 win here a week ago, whilst out of form bottom weight Yasmin from York is also up one class, which I can't see being helpful!

Haaland, Spritzin and Artisan Dancer receive an 8lbs weight for age allowance here and the first named of that trio now wears cheekpieces for the first time after finishing third last time out. That was 29 days ago and whilst that's not exactly a distant memory, only Kiss My Face has been out of action longer and he might well need the run after 24 weeks off.

Despite being three from five here at Newcastle, Spirit of Ash hasn't won over course and distance (she hasn't gone beyond 1m5f), but both Bobby Shaftoe and the returning Kiss My Face have scored over track and trip, whilst Red Force One, Sophar Sogood, Artisan Dancer and Yasmin from York have won elsewhere over similar distances to this one.

One last note about Kiss My Face is that he's trained by Brian Ellison and will be ridden by Ben Robinson and this trainer/jockey combo have won this race for the last two years and Instant Expert suggests this runner should enjoy the prevalent conditions here...

Bobby Shaftoe also has a decent set of figures to back up his claims, but aside from Sophar Sogood, the field look pretty shy of Class 5 A/W wins and this is repeated in the place stats...

...where Yasmin of York would normally be of interest were she not in such poor form right now. Kiss My Face is the eyecatcher again here, but I'm just concerned he might need the run.

The draw stats for similar past races...

...are a little skewed by a poor set of results from horses drawn in stall 1...

...but that looks to be an anomaly and I'm fairly sure that the draw won't make or break the chances of a horse that has to run over 3500 yards after the gates open, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling Bobby Shaftoe out right now, but I'd want him to race as prominently as he could from that lowest draw, if these pace stats are anything to go by...

That, sadly isn't normally the case ands he's generally held up or races in mid-field, as shown by his last four efforts below...

That said, there's very little pace in the race here and I suspect we'll have a falsely run race. Draw and pace will probably end up having very little effect on the outcome and if they go at a dawdle, which they might, then that's tailor made for the more natural hold-up types.

Summary

If we're not placing as much emphasis on draw/pace as we normally do, then it's going to be down to form, suitability, quality and the unquantifiable 'gut feeling' and with that in mind, I think I want to play at the bottom end of the pace chart. A lack of early pace would tend to set it up for a 'finisher'.

Spirit of Ash is the course specialist from the H4C report and I fancy her to go well, but she's never been beyond 1m5f, so may have to settle for a place/top 4 finish with Artisan Dancer the one I like most. He has finished 1116 in his last four and would have been much closer last time out, had he not been blocked off on the rail late on when flying home. He gets the trip, is in good nick, loves the A/W and is 3 from 6 under today's jockey.  He's the current 9/4 fav ahead of Spirit of Ash at 7/2, but neither price is particularly attractive/generous.

Elsewhere, at a bigger price, Bobby Shaftoe looks a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst Kiss My Face could well outrun his 12/1 ticket if fully tuned up after his lay-off, but you'd be taking his fitness on trust. Mind you, Skybet are paying 4 places, so who knows?

Racing Insights, Friday 06/10/2023

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two UK qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.07 Fontwell
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.10 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Newcastle

...and of the six UK races above (from the report and the free list), I'm going to look at the 4.30 Ascot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good ground, that will be softer in places...

No LTO winners here, but Art de Vivre, Brave Knight, El Jasor and Sea Stone all won their penultimate starts and the latter was third last time out, as was Oceanline.

Hy Brasil has been off the track the longest at 151 days but he now returns for a second crack at winning a handicap and is tongue-tied for the first time, whilst all his rivals have raced in the last five weeks or so. He's also stepping up a class from his last run, as are Oceanline and Brave Knight. Educator actually drops down a level, but bottom weight Art de Vivre is up two classes here.

Art de Vivre, is however, one of three 3 yr olds in the field along with El Jasor and Brave Knight and they'll get a useful 9lbs weight allowance for their age. None of this field have won here at Ascot before (mind you, only two have raced here), but three (Sea Stone, Brave Knight & Art de Vivre) have won over a two-mile trip.

Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Alright Sunshine relishing the going and the class of race, but not the track nor trip! Sea Stone probably looks the best, but there's not much to work with here, so let's look at place form...

I think that suggests Alright Sunshine isn't going to enjoy the 2m trip here and indeed, his best Flat form has been over 1m4f. He has, however got a decent record over hurdles at this class/trip, so all might not be lost, as shown below for all codes...

...but it's still Sea Stone from that for me. Alright Sunshine does look capable of a place and although I suspect the draw shouldn't be making or breaking a runner's chance here, he has bagged stall 1. The draw stats for similar past races say...

...that there is no real discernible draw bias at play here and that we'd be better off focusing on the pace of the race, where the key to winning here seems to be a prominent/leading run...

...with hold-up horses struggling most to make the frame. Our field's last few outings have gone as follows...

...with the top four of obvious interest.

Summary

The above analysis doesn't reflect this, but Sea Stone is the one to beat here in my opinion. He's in the best form and still looks ahead of the assessor, but I can't back him at 5/2, as those odds reflect poor value in a competitive race like this, plus he doesn't fit my profiling above 😉

Brave Knight, El Jasor, Hy Brasil & Art de Vivre are prominent/leading types and I want to focus on this quartet. I'm against Hy Brasil due to his layoff, handicap inexperience, class rise and a lack of form, but the other three all won two starts ago and that form allied to their likely running style makes them decent options to make the frame.

Sadly they're all currently priced at 5/1 or shorter, so I own't be having an E/W bet here, but this trio and Sea Stone should be the ones filling the places.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 22/09/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Newton Abbot
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

...the pick of which must surely be the Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies Stakes aka the 2.50 Ayr, a 13-runner, Listed race for 3yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 5½f on good/good to soft ground and here's how they look on the card...

None managed to win last time out, but Aussie Girl has been the runner-up in each of her last three after winning four races ago. She has two wins and six places from her last eight starts (13221222), which is about as good as it gets for this field's recent form. Funny Story, Marine Wave and Secret Angel were also in the frame last time around, but the latter pair are both winless in at least six, as is Gale Force Maya.

Seven of the field raced in Class 1 action last time around, but Gale Force Maya (now blinkered for the first time), Marine Wave, Radio Goo Goo, Sophia's Starlight and Sweet Harmony all step up from Class 2 with Silent Words up two classes, depsite finishing last of seven at Thirsk earlier this month.

The vast majority of the field have raced in the last month or so, but Pink Crystal and Rum Cocktail return from ten-week breaks and as 4 yr olds, they're 2lbs worse off with the ten 3yo's in the field, as is the 7yo Gale Force Maya, who is the sole course and distance winner, by virtue of landing this race last year (that said, she is 0 from 7 and placed just once since).

None of her rivals have won here before, but Aussie Girl did win over 5½f at the end of April. Instant Expert says that all bar Marine Wave, Perdika and Silent words have won over 5f to 6f on turf, though...

There's not a huge deal of green there, but Sophia's Starlight would seem to be happy with the ground conditions and the trip. We're a bit shy on Class 1 winners, but Gale Force Maya is 5 from 14 at Class 2, whilst the corresponding place data for those races above is as follows...

...with the ones creating most initial interest being Perdika, Gale Force Maya, Pink Crystal, Aussie Girl and Queen Me.

As you'd probably expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a straight 5½f, although those drawn highest have won slightly more often...

...but the lower a horse is drawn the better its chances of making the frame have been, so mixed messages here and it's highly likely that pace will determine the winner/placers rather than the draw and here's how those 40-odd races above have been won...

...where hold-up horses have done surprisingly well over a short trip, almost achieving a par score for A/E, but as is often the case in a sprint contest, those getting out quickest have fared the best, which based on recent activity, would be good news for Aussie Girl and Queen Me from the Instant Expert shortlist, but Sophia's Starlight looks like the one most likely to set the tempo...

...and she's no mug. She didn't run particularly well last time out, but 7f on quick ground at York is nothing like she'll face here and prior to that York run, she had finished 131311521 in her eight runs this year, having made all in her five wins and Instant Expert highlighted her form at going/distance as the best.

She's drawn centrally in stall 6 and looks well favoured by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

I really like Sophia's Starlight here and although I'm not sure she's the winner of this contest, I'm happy to back her E/W. Only Hills had prices up at 3pm on Thursday, but 10/1 is workable or you might want to wait until those firms offering four places open up.

I also fancy the chances of Aussie Girl and Queen Me. Both were on the IE shortlist, both will be up with the pace and the latter is in excellent form. Queen Me's efforts in Group 1 defeats on her last two outings might well be the best recent runs from any of these runners and this represents a major drop in quality and it's highly likely that she's going to be the one to beat here. 9/2 isn't overly generous, but I'd say it was fair.

As for Aussie Girl, I'd be surprised if she didn't make the frame : she normally does, but 13/2 is a little on the short side for me to go E/W. That said, she's a major player here and wouldn't be a bad bet.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/09/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 2.25 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Downpatrick
  • 4.25 Sandown
  • 4.30 Chester
  • 5.35 Sandown

The Doncaster race is a Group 2 sprint, but I tend not to get involved with 2 yr olds too much, so I'm going to tackle the 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner (fingers crossed they all run for E/W purposes), 4yo+, Class 2 flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

The early market had this as a race within a race with (alphabetically) Atrium, Azano, Silver Samurai & Under The Twilight all priced at 9/2 or shorter with the other half of the field all rated 8/1 or bigger and my initial thoughts were that Hills had it spot on with who to follow, but they might not be right!

Silver Samurai was the only one win last time out, but Atrium won two starts ago and both Azano and Under The Twilight were placed on their last runs. Documenting, Azano, Mitrosonfire and Mokaatil are currently winless in six, twelve, twelve and eleven races respectively, which has to be a concern, especially for the latter trio.

Only Atrium, Documenting and Azano actually ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all now stepping two levels from Class 4, which makes life tougher for the LTO winner/placers Silver Samurai and Under The Twilight, but they are at least running well.

Mokaatil is the only one of the eight yet to win at today's trip, but in fairness he has yet to race over 7f, despite 67 previous outings. He's far better (7 from 37) over 5f than he is over 6f (2 from 30), so I think 7f might be a stretch for him especially from 2lbs out of the handicap, although he is the only previous course winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap over 5f just over a year ago.

All eight have been seen fairly recently with Mitrosonfire (9 days) and Priscilla's Wish (42 days) the quickest turned back out/longest rested, whilst Atrium is the sole headgear-wearer, sporting cheekpieces for the fourth race in a row, including a 7f win at Doncaster on his penultimate outing.

Instant Expert suggests that Azano might well be the weakest of the four market principals...

...and you'd not rush out to back him if that data was all you had to work with! His win record on good ground, at Class 2 and over 7f are frankly lamentable, but none of these scream Class 2 runner, so let's have a look at Class 3 form...

...which still isn't a good look for Azano! Priscilla's Wish is interesting here with a Class 3 win and a 6 from 18 record over today's trip. She was fourth at Newmarket last time out, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from seven starts this year. Atrium and Silver Samurai have the best records on good ground and the former has 3 wins from 7 over this trip.

The draw stats here over 7f at Sandown would suggest that the runners drawn in stalls 2 to 7 have an advantage over those drawn at the extremities...

...which might not be the best news for Silver Samurai in stall 1 and much might rest on how he gets away/involved here. Recently he has tended to race towards the back of the field, as have many of the field if truth be told...

...and if the above is anything to go by, Atrium might well be allowed to grab a soft early lead and dominate the race from the front and according to the pace/draw heat map, he's the best placed of all here, if he leads from a relatively high draw...

Summary

Of the quartet that I (and the early market) thought be the ones to focus on, Silver Samurai & Azano had poor scores on Instant Expert and all bar Azano look like being unsuited by being held up. Azano looks like being able to dictate the pace of the contest here and that should ensure that he makes the frame, but he wouldn't be an obvious winner based on past form under these conditions and at odds ranging from 7/2 to 9/2, I don't think there's much value in either of the four 'originals'.

I'll not be backing any of these to win, but if I was to play here, I might just have a small (and I mean small) E/W flutter on Priscilla's Wish. She has been held up in her last two outings but has also been known to race more prominently, she's not too badly drawn and certainly gets the trip. I won't be risking much money, but at 10/1, she could well be the E/W answer.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Friday 08/09/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Down Royal
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Kempton

...the best of which looks like being the 5.20 Ascot, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 7f on good ground...

No recent LTO winners here, although Vermilion did score when last seen some 349 days ago, but the form horse is surely Kimnkate who has finished 1121212 since adopting blinkers in June of this year. Gulmarg, Metahorse and Boy Browning were also placed on their last runs, although both Gulmarg and Metahorse haven't won for a while (both have lost 10 in a row!) with the same applying to Boy Browning (winless in 6), whilst the lightly raced filly, Liberty is a three-race maiden.

She now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 76 and the returning Vermilion also debuts in handicap contests here, but he's rated at 83. He does, however drop a class, whilst Liberty steps up a class. Boy Browning, Starlight Nation and De Bruyne are also up in class with Pastiche, Kimnkate & Zouzanna dropping down.

We know Vermilion has been off for nearly a year, but there shouldn't be any fitmess issues with the others, who aside from Starlight Nation (off 73 days), have all raced in the last two to six weeks. None of the field have won here before, but all bar Havana Pusey, Zouzanna, Boy Browning, Liberty (obviously) and De Bruyne have at least won over today's trip, as shown on Instant Expert...

...where off an admittedly small number of runs, Pastiche is the eye-catcher. Metahorse and Gulmarg seem to have struggled to win at this grade, but quite a few of these have done well at the trip. The place stats are very interesting, though, as Gulmarg and Metahorse are regular Class 4 placers, so maybe they've been unlucky?

...with this quintet the ones with the best overall profile...

These runners are drawn in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7 & 11, but over a straight sprint on good ground there shouldn't be much in the draw and the stats say...

...that there really isn't much in it, so no real advantage to be gained from any of this field, meaning that it might well come down to race tactics aka pace and those races above have gone as follows...

Sadly, we've not got much assistance there either if truth be told. The place stats are very similar across the board and it almost seems strange that hold-up horses do as well as the others. I'll show you how this group have approached their last few races, even if we're not going to use the data...

There should be plenty of early pace with Liberty, Metahorse, Vermilion, Boy Browning and Zouzanna all keen to get on with things here.

Summary

Short and possibly not very sweet today. We've not really got much from pace/draw, but we know which horses are in good form and which horses stood out on Instant Expert and whilst I'm not going to be going in too heavily after not using the pace/draw stats, my money would be for Kimnkate. She has been a revelation since being fitted with blinkers and although up 2lbs here, she looks the one to beat. She's 12121 under today's jockey and 5/1 looks fair enough.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Metahorse, Gulmarg and Pastiche to be involved, but all are too short to back E/W, whilst those priced at 8's or bigger make little appeal. Sometimes it's best to keep your money in your pocket.

Racing Insights, Friday 01/09/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.20 Thirsk
  • 4.08 Fontwell
  • 4.45 Ffos Las
  • 5.00 Down Royal
  • 6.43 Salisbury
  • 7.43 Salisbury

...and I think it makes sense to look at Ready Freddie Go from the H4C report, who runs in the first of our free races, the 3.20 Thirsk. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Tinto comes here off the back of a win, but Bay Breeze won his penultimate race, Fast And Loose was third LTO and Rock Opera's last three results read 122, but he is now returning from a 14-month break, so could very well need the run!

Brazen Bolt won six races ago and feature horse Ready Freddie Go has a win and a place from his last three, but seven of this field are without a win in their recent form lines.

I said Rock Opera might need a run on his second handicap outing after a 14-month absence and that might also apply to Ingra Tor and Pendleton after breaks of 144 and 349 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards and now makes a debut for Julie Camacho.

Only Ready Freddie Go, Tinto and Fast And Loose ran at Class 3 last time out, as the bottom three on the card (Rock Opera, Khabib & last year's winner of this race, Runninwild) all step up from Class 4 with the remaining six runners all dropping down from Class 2.

By winning this race last year, Runninwild is one of three (along with Tinto & Bay Breeze) former course and distance winners. As you'd expect from his place on the H4C report, Ready Freddie Go is a past Thirsk winner, having landed 4 of his 5 races over 5f, but he's one of just three (along with Rock Opera & Khabib) yet to win at 6f, as shown on Instant Expert...

And whilst the above doesn't necessarily guide me to a winner or even an E/W bet, it does mark the card for me regarding the likes of Pendleton (going/class/distance), Gulliver (going/class/distance), Fast And Loose (going/class/distance) and Khabib (going/course/distance) to the extent that I won't be backing any of them to buck the trend and win here and for simplicity's sake, I've removed them before looking at place stats...

...where aside from Ingra Tor's relatively poor record over 6f , there's little to cause me any discomfort. Interestingly, only last year's winner Runninwild runs off a mark lower than his last win, but that's probably because he's 0 from 6 since that win here a year ago. That said, his place data is very strong. He's drawn in stall 3 today and won from stall 4 last year, but our draw analyser suggests that those drawn highest have the best chances here...

...which allied to the PRB3 figures...

...might leave me with egg on my face if Gulliver and Fast And Loose go well from stalls 9 & 10! If we then consider how those races above were actually won, you'll probably not be too surprised to hear that leaders go well over a straight 6f on good ground, whilst hold-up horses have fared the worst as is generally the case in such contests...

...which sadly for me, again suggests that Fast And Loose possibly shouldn't have been discarded...

...whilst in draw order, we have...

...pointing to Fast And Loose being best placed on both draw and pace with feature horse Ready Freddie Go also looking useful.

Summary

The Pace/Draw data suggests that Fast And Loose is a major player, but he has only won once in fourteen attempts and represents poor value to me at 5/1. I've no doubt that he'll be in the mix with such a good pace/draw profile and the fact that he has made the frame in 9 of those 14 starts, but he'd be a placer again here for me and 5/1 is no E/W price for my liking.

He was beaten by Tinto last time out and despite being 4lbs worse off here, I think Tinto will beat him again and 9/2 is probably fair if unexciting. What I do like is the early 17/2 being offered about Brazen Bolt. He's better than recent results might suggest, he's down in class, had good place data on Instant Expert and his yard have a good record at this track. His trainer/jockey are in good collective form and have done well here at Thirsk together and 17/2 is a decent E/W price.

As for H4C report horse, Ready Freddie Go, I'm sure he'll give his best shot on his favoured track and could well get close to the frame at 9/1, but I'd much prefer him over 5f rather than today's trip.