Tag Archive for: Horses for Courses

Racing Insights, Friday 21/04/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced three qualifiers...

And our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.05 Newbury
  • 2.50 Fontwell
  • 3.08 Cork
  • 4.30 Fontwell
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 6.35 Exeter

Both Ayr runners on my H4C report go in Class 2 contests, but it's the latter of the two races that interests me most, as E/W backers can get three places in the 3.35 Ayr, where the in-form Charm Offensive takes on eight other rivals in a Class 2, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over a left handed 3m½f (after a +60 yards rail movement) on good to soft ground...

Only Jasmiwa won last time out, but that was a Class 4 contest and she's up two grades here. That said, she'll be in good heart, having won two of her last three. Featured horse Charm Offensive has three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last five outings and now steps up one class, whilst Great Snow makes a second handicap appearance after finishing third in a Newbury Grade 2 contest on handicap debut four weeks ago. Aubis was pulled up in that same race on her handicap bow and now also drops in class.

Bellatrixsa and Aurora Thunder are winless in five and eight NH races respectively and whilst the former drops in class here, it'll be tough for the latter stepping up from Class 4. Sabrina has made the frame in seven of her last eight outings, but also steps up in class here. Charm Offensive might well need a run here, after a 113-day absence but aside from last year's winner Get A Tonic coming back from two months off, the rest of this field have all raced since the start of March.

Winning this race last year makes Get A Tonic, the only course and distance winner in the field, as Charm Offensive's two wins here were at 2m4½f/2m5f and Aurora Thunder is the only other course winner, having also won over 2m4½f. Great Snow and Jasmiwa have won at this trip in the past, though and stamina may be the key here.

All the above data comes from your racecard above, but clicking the Instant Expert tab will also reveal four previous NH winners on good to soft ground and just the one previous Class 2 success...

Get A Tonic is that sole Class 2 winner, courtesy of winning this race last year, but she has failed to place in the three defeats at this level. Sabrina has made the frame in two of three Class 2 runs and Aurora Thunder managed to place in five of her nine efforts, but a 0 from 9 win record is worrying, as is her 0 from 6 at the trip. If we looked a little closer at place form...

...we'd probably not fancy Sabrina on good to soft ground and we'd still have questions about Aurora Thunder staying the trip. Charm Offensive's record here is exceptional, but she has a career record of just one win from five at any trip beyond 2m5f, but she has made the frame in three of the four defeats.

I suggested that stamina could well be the key here and there's quite a few way this field have approached their recent outigs and if we consider how they've raced in their last three contests...

...you'd expect class-dropper Great Snow to be setting the pace here, closely followed by Bellatrixsa and Sabrina, whilst last year's winner Get A Tonic looks like he has been waited with of late, despite that win here coming from a prominent racing position. Last year's tactics have proven to be more successful than a hold-up approach here...

...and she'd probably be best served by a switch in tactics here, if she's to succeed, as might well Charm Offensive.

Summary

For me, the one to beat is Great Snow. She ran really well to finish third of fifteen in a Grade 2 handicap four weeks ago and with her front-running tactics could be difficult to catch/beat. She's unexposed and has already won over three miles and the only surprise to me is that she's available at 9/2 with Bet365.

As for who might chase her home, Get A Tonic won this last year, Charm Offensive loves it here and both should go well, but wouldn't be E/W bets at just 6/1 and 9/2 respectively. I don't normally dip below 8/1 for an E/W pick and based on that Sabrina would be the likeliest. She'll be up with the pace, has gone well at class/trip before and if it dries out any, she could edge one of the others out for a place.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/04/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.25 Bath

As is generally the case, I shy away from the Flat in early April, so the Bath contest is a no-go for me and whilst the Lingfield race is a decent-looking Class 3 handicap, the first on the list is probably the best of the three and that's the 1.50 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 2 Conditions Stakes for 3 yr olds. It's over a straight 6f on standard tapeta and a first prize of over £77k awaits one of these...

The entire field has at least one win inside their last four outings with Danger Alert (2 from 3), Desert Cop, Michaela's Boy (2 from 2), Shaquille (2 from 2 and 3 from 4), Hello Queen (2 from 3 ) and Perdika (4 from 4) all winnig last time out.

Less than half of them raced at Class 2 last time out, as Danger Alert, Michaela's Boy, The X O and perdike all step up two classes, whilst Desert Cop raced at Class 5. Conversely, Shouldvebeenaring was beatenh by just over a length in a Listed contest and drops down here.

Perdika wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Michaela's Boy is the only one yet to win over today's trip, although he has won here at Newcastle over 5f, as has Glorious Angel with Hello Queen being our sole course and distance winner having won LTO five weeks ago.

Conditions Stakes mean they all carry 9st 7lbs except the three fillies, Glorious Angel, Hello Queen and Perdika. And with Perdika having the highest OR (104), she's best off at the weights, effectively 6lbs well in with second best Shouldvebeenaring. Desert Cop looks worst off, rated 25lbs worse than perdika, but carrying 5lbs more : that's a tough ask over 6f.

Shaquille might need a run after a four-month break, but aside from Desert Cop's 51-day absence, the others have all raced at least once in the last five weeks. Shaquille, however, is the only runner in the field with a Class 2 A/W win to his name, whilst Desert Cop is the only one without a standard going win. These details along with the course/distance/weight datea can be seen here in Instant Expert...

...from which, I'd say Shaquille, Hello Queen and Perdika caught my eye first. All three are drawn in stalls 7 to 10 with Shouldvebeenaring, but I'd need to check the draw stats to see if that is likely to have any bearing on the outcome...

The 'bias' doesn't appear to be huge with win% ranging from 8.38 to 11.75, but that's possibly bigger than it might seem with 11.75 equating to 140% of 8.38, so in real terms those drawn high are 40% more likely to win here over 6f assuming, of course, they get their tactics right and as with many straight A/W sprints, it has paid to be at the head of affairs...

...which, combined with the draw stats, makes the heat map fairly unsurprising...

If we then look at how the field have approached their most recent races...

...then I'd expect Michaela's Boy, Desert Cop, Shaquille, Glorious Angel and Perdika to be making the running and if we add those runners to our heat map and arrange the field into draw order, it doesn't look good for Shouldvebeenaring, but most of the field would be happy with their lot...

Summary

I expect Michaela's Boy to blast out and attempt to win from the front, but he's up two classes here and has all his best form over 5f. Desert Cop was weak finishing in two 7f contests before landing a Class 5 maiden over 6f last time out, but this is much tougher and might be too much of a step up too soon. Glorious Angel has the benefit of the 5lb allowance but has toiled in her last three UK and one French outing since winning here by a neck over 5f in January.

I don't really fancy any of those three to win and if I was to pick one of those, it would be Michaela's Boy as an E/W pick at a rather attractive 18/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power (or 14's with Hills paying four places).

As for my winner, I think I've narrowed down to Shaquille and Perdika. Both are in good form, Perdika is best off at the weights, both scored well (green) on Instant Expert with Perdika having the better numbers. Both are drawn high and both will race prominently and I'd expect both to be involved. That said, the 6/1 (Bet6365) Perdika appeals more than the 7/2 (Coral & Ladbrokes) Shaquille, so that's how I'd play it.

Good Luck & Happy Easter!

Please note, I'm away at a wedding on Good Friday, so no Saturday preview and I'm back with you on Monday afternoon/evening for Tuesday's racing.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 31/03/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.25 Wetherby
  • 4.40 Wexford
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 5.55 Southwell
  • 6.10 Wexford

Of the free UK races and the three featuring H4C runners, the 3.25 Wetherby is the highest rated as a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

Dare To Shout has won two from three so far (runner-up in the other) and is the form horse and only LTO winner in the contest, whilst Fransham, Albert's Back and Uhtred are all winless in six. Top weight Celestyal Horizon has been pulled up in four of his last five.

He does, however, drop down a level here, as do Front View, Uhtred and Dancewiththewind. Dare To Shout goes the opposite direction on his handicap debut, whilst both Hardy du Seuil (first-time cheekpieces here) and Sizing Pottsie are both dropping down from Class 1 action LTO witht he former having won at Class 2 two starts ago.

All ten have already won over today's with three of them (Fransham, Albert's Back and Dancewiththewind) having won over course and distance. Bottom weight Pyramid Place has also won here in the past, landing a 2m4f hurdle.

None of these are coming off really long layoffs with Fransham's 11-week absence the longest, as half of the field have raced inside the last three weeks and seven have been seen this month alone.

In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Celestial Horizon, Dare To Shout and Dancewiththewind have already scored on soft ground and that half of the field (Fransham, Hardy du Seuil, Albert's Back, Dancewiththewind & Pyramid Place) are former Class 3 winners...

Our Pace Analyser tells us that those setting the tempo of similar races have done pretty well, but that the optimum racing postiion is to track the leaders in a prominent position...

...with hold-up horses having a lamentable record here at 1 in 80! Based on the field's most recent outings, that hold-up stat really isn't good news for Sizing Pottsie, Uhtred and/or Pyramid Place in a contest where I expect Dancewiththewind to set the pace with a target on his back for the likes of Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout...

Summary

I can see Dancewiththewind trying to make all to win for the third time in four starts to land a second course and distance win, but his front-running tactics make him a target for Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout. I don't particularly like Front View, as he's in poor form (just one win in nine over the last three years) and doesn't win often enough on soft ground.

I'd expect the leader to be overhauled by both Hardy du Seuil and Dare To Shout, but at 12/1 (Bet365 , 3 places) or 10/1 (SkyBet, 4 places) Dancewiththe wind looks a viable E/W prospect at 10.30pm on Thursday, which begs the question about who wins. Dare to Shout is the form horse, finishing 211 in his three starts so far but all at a lower grade than this. Hardy du Seuil, on the other hand, drops down from Class 1 to run here, won a Class 2 two starts ago and was a Grade 2 runner-up over fences last year.

I think the latter is a 'better' horse than the former and I'll take quality/experience over form today with the 9/2 (generally) Hardy du Seuil to edge it over the 9/4 (gen) Dare To Shout.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/03/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hereford
  • 3.00 Musselburgh
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I think we really need to look at Elzaam in the 8.15 Newcastle, which is a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard going tapeta. He has raced at this class, track and trip nine times so far in handicaps and his results read 332211311! From those nine races he is 1311 under today's jockey Graham Lee, 311 in fields of 12+ runners and he's 11311 in his last five career runs, incidentally all here over course and distance.

Here's the card...

As you can see, he's one of just two (in-form Enraged being the other) LTO winners but five of his rivals (Primo's Comet, Enraged, Kraken Power, Nellie French & Another Angel) have also won over course and distance.

Most of his rivals (except Impressor @ 112 dlsr) have raced in the last five weeks and Shabaaby, Primo's Comet & Enraged all drop in class to run here in what will be just Madam Arkati's second run in a handicap.

As you'd expect, Elzaam dominates the Instant Expert section of the card...

...but a few others do at least have some creditable numbers behind them. There is however a large number of red boxes with horses having poor results from a fair large sample size ie Araifjan on the going, One Hart (track), Primo's Comet (going/track/trip), Mews House (going/trip), Marwari (going), Nellie French (track) and Another Angel (class). To be honest, I do see it as a negative if your percentages are still that low after 10 or more attempts. Hopefully the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

A simplistic view here is that Elzaal, Enraged, Kraken Power and Marwari might be the ones to make a shortlist from, although you could still make a case for a few others. That said, Primo's Comet and Impressor do look like they might well struggle.

Elzaal is drawn in stall 11 of 14 on a track/trip where not only have high draws prevailed most often, but stall 11 has been the most successful of all...

And he has been drawn in 10 or higher in three of his four course and distance wins to date. So, Elzaal is in great form, he's the course/distance expert and has got a great draw, so here's the downside? Well, if there is one it's the fact that he's likely to have pass most of his rivals late on if he's to win again, as recent runs suggest he's likely to be held up for a late run...

...and that's not generally the way to win such races here at Newcastle, if we refer back to those races we used for the draw stats...

So, the main possible negative is that he runs from a career-high mark with a possible poor pace profile, but he has won his last two here from the back of the field suggesting he might be the exception to the rule and if we're looking for high drawn leaders, I suppose that's Another Angel in #13, who might well give Elzaal a good two into the race from wide.

Summary

I really can't see Elzaal not making the frame here, especially with most firms paying four places, but at 6/1 he's not E/W material for me. The biggest challenges will probably come from in-form class dropper Enraged (current 5/1 fav) and Kraken Power who can be had at 2.50pm at 17/2 with Hills, which would probably be my E/W play.

Kraken Power was just a nose behind Enraged when they met here last month and with Kraken Power a pund better off here, it's sure to be tight between the pair and then when you add the late run from Elzaal, we could have a cracking finish. Any of the three could get it on the nod, but if I stuck my neck out, it'd be with featured horse Elzaal.

Please note, I'm off to Oslo this (Thursday) evening, returning home on Monday, so the next Racing Insights column will be for Tuesday's racing (28th).

Racing Insights, Friday 17/03/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Wolverhampton
  • 5.50 Down Royal
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...so I suppose it makes sense to try and assess the chances of Johnny Boom in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table as both won last time out and they are two from three and three from six respectively. Captain Attridge is a career 0 from 5, but the rest of the field have all won at least one of their last six outings.

The entire field either ran a this class or higher last time around, so, all should used to the standard, especially Poetic Force, Baby Steps & Harbour Vision who drop from Class 4 and Enough Already whose last race was a Class 3 affair.

Captain Attridge has been off the track since 1st October 2021 and is highly likely to need the run on his yard/UK/handicap debut. Of his rivals, Milltown Star's 55-day break is the longest and Harbour Vision, Poetic Force & Johnny Boom all raced less than a fortnight ago.

Enough Already and the maiden Captain Attridge are the two yet to win here at Wolverhampton and of the nine course winners, five (Arcadian Nights, Tiger Beetle, H4C horse Johnny Boom, Harbour Vision & Mafia Power) are course and distance winners.

All bar Captain Attridge have won on standard going A/W tracks with varying degrees of success and we've half a dozen previous Class 5 A/W winners, according to Instant Expert...

One's focus automatically falls on the green blocks and it's pretty safe to say that Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force, Tiger Beetle and Johnny Boom have performed best under these conditions previously, whilst I have concerns over Enough Already (going), Baby Steps (going/distance), Johnny Boom (class), Harbour Vision (class/course), Mafia Power (going/class/distance), English Spirit (going) and Captain Attridge (layoff and generally!).

In fact, I'd not say those I have concerns about couldn't/wouldn't make the frame, but I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle, who will emerge from stalls 2, 5, 9 & 11, so a good spread across the track. I've omitted Johnny Boom from my list of possible winners, because he is 6 from 12 at Class 6 and 0 from 16 any higher, including 0 from 11 at Class 5. He has made the frame in three of six Class 5 A/W handicaps here though, so could be one for minor money.

My quartet of potential winners are spread across the track for a race that has, at first glance, benefited those drawn centrally...

...but the stall by stall analysis doesn't entirely back this up, so I wouldn't be too concerned about where my horse was drawn and I'd be more interested in race tactics. And we look against at those 1600+ runners above, the key here is not to dwell early and get left behind...

Sitting just behind the pacemaker(s) is the preferred option, but again like the draw, you'd not be too worried how your horse ran and from which stall, as long as they weren't held up and this is how this field have approached their most recent races...

Those pace scores are probably another nail in the coffin for Johnny Boom winning here and you'd want Poetic Force to run like he did LTO rather than the three previous races. The thing about PF is that he runs off the same mark as a win LTO, even though he drops in class and that should be enough to overcome any pace bias. The fact he's drawn in 11 might also suggest he'd have to tuck in anyway.

Summary

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table and after looking at Instant Expert, I said that I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle and to be true to my word, I think this is a contest between Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force.

Both are in good form, both scored well on Instant Expert, neither are going to set the pace, although Arcadian Nights does have a better pace profile. Poetic Force, however, runs off an unchanged mark from his LTO win whilst dropping in class whilst Arcadian Nights is up 5lbs for a win at this level and some 9lbs higher than his C&D win here three starts ago and the weight/class might just be the difference.

So, it's marginally Poetic Force over Arcadian Nights (reverse forecast, perhaps?) for me with the other place going to any of a half dozen others, about whom I'll return to make a judgement once I've seen the market open.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/03/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 3.10 Ayr
  • 3.20 Wolverhampton
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Kempton

...and I think we'll see how track specialist Satin Snake might get on in the 6.00 Kempton, an 8-runner (Porfin doesn't go), Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices Handicap over a right handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

No LTO winners on display here, but feature horses Satin Snake was a runner-up 7 days ago and bottom weight Jupiter Express was also a runner-up 8 days ago. Both also won two starts ago and both have 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from their last five five, making them the 'form horses'. Conversely, The Green Man is winless in 6, Impeach has lost his last 8 and it's a losing streak of 16 races over almost two years for Gobi Sunset.

The two 'form' horses both step up a class here, but The Green Man, Mamillius and Gobi Sunset all drop a level after failing to make the frame on their most recent outings. Stockpyle might need the run after a five-month break during which he was gelded, but aside from Mamillius' three month absence, the others have all raced in the last month with both Satin Snake and Jupiter Express running in March already.

Stockpyle and Satin Snake are the only ones yet to win at this trip, but the latter is just one of two previous winners (finishes of 31211 over 7f!), along with Melly's Flyer who is 2 from 3 over course and distance. In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells me that on the A/W, five of these have won on standard to slow going and four of them have won at Class 4...

Aside from being 0 from 3 at this trip, you can see why Satin Snake is the H4C horse here, Elsewhere, I have worries over Mamillius (class/trip), Impeach (going/class) and Gobi Sunset (generally but class here) and as Mamillius might need the run after a lay-off, Impeach is on a run of 0 from 8 and Gobi Sunset 0 from 16, I'm crossing them off the list here, leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 7 & 8 and in similar past races here at Kempton, this is how the draw has worked out...

.suggesting that Mellys Flyer is at somewhat of a disadvantage and that Satin Snake might also not have the best of it, but good news for The Green Man, if nothing else. 23.5 wins would be par, so stalls 4 & 5 are neither badly nor well considered here. Interestingly, Satin Snake has won here from stall 7 before and also from stall 13, which is somewhere out near Kempton cricket club, so it might well be the race tactics are more important here and they say...

...that the further forward you can race the better from both a win and place perspective, which based on this field's recent endeavours...

...is less good news for The Green Man than before, but some respite for Satin Snake, whose average pace score from his last five visits here is 3.40. We have the draw and the pace covered, but how they interact may also offer some clues, so here's the heat map for this race...

...suggesting that a highly drawn runner's best chance of success is to get out quickly, as Satin Snake has done here in the past. When we combine today's drawn with the field's last four runs anywhere, we get...

...and although those drawn lower than Satin Snake look better placed, he does have the right pace profile if not the best draw.

Summary

It's hard to get away from the two 'form' horses, Satin Snake and Jupiter Express and they might well be the first two home. Satin Snake ticks plenty of boxes, but is relatively poorly drawn (although only two wide of Jupiter) and is 3lbs higher than his last win, which was by 0.75 lengths. Jupiter Express also brings similar form to the table, but lacks experience and was raised 4lbs for a half-length success. He's slightly worse treated than Satin and with his rivals record here at Kempton, it's Satin Snake for me, but Jupiter should definitely make the frame if not the runners-up spot.

Sadly, as I'm a bit later (6.15pm) than normal, the price on Satin Snake has gone and he's now the 9/4 fav although that's where I'd have him, along with the 7/2 about Jupiter Express. The bookies are giving us anything, but they're being fair here and the reverse forecast might pay reasonably.

Racing Insights, Friday 03/03/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers at Newcastle's evening meet for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races, which sadly (for me) is very Dundalk-heavy...

  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.55 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Dundalk

I've no real interest in Dundalk, but the Lingfield contest looks a better one than the Newcastle H4C report races, so let's focus on the 3.00 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack, where a first prize of almost £13k awaits one of these...

Dora Penny and Laheg both won LTO, whilst Baldomero, Crimson Sand and Tolstoy were runners-up, but Lequinto has failed to make the frame in five starts since back-to-back wins at Windsor last summer.

LTO winner Laheg is up a class here as is Aberama Gold, but Crimson Sand, Lequinto and the fast finisher Embour all drop down from Class 2.

Last year's winner of this race, Jack's Point and Crimson Sand have been off track the longest at 274 & 243 days respectively and both make debuts for their new yards here.

Baldomero is the only one yet to win at this trip, but hasn't yet tackled it and has won over 7f. Laheg is the only Lingfield debutant on display and of his rivals, Baldomero, Dora Penny, Lequinto and Tolstoy have yet to score here after 13 combined attempts. Embour won here over 5f (and over 6f on turf), but Crimson Sand, Jack's Point, Tyger Bay, Aberama Gold and Count Otto are all former course and distance winners.

It's a competitive field with the assessor only rating top weight Baldomero 6lbs better than bottom weight Count Otto, so William Carver's 3lb allowance on Tyger Bay could be very handy.

Most of these have experienced similar conditions before and here's how they've got on...

That's largely satisfactory, if not exactly spectacular. Most of them have done well enough, so let's look at the negatives, which for me are Baldomero's 1 from 10 on Standard going, Lequinto's record at class/track and Aberama Gold at class/trip. The latter is shown as being 8lbs below his last A/W win, but that was here over course and distance just before Christmas 2020! He has made the frame just once in 15 A/W starts since then. He has won on turf off just 2lbs higher than this as recently as five months ago, but has toiled away from grass.

I'm going to look at place form, though, before I discard any of these from my reckoning...

...and this is more useful/insightful for me. You don't win if you don't make the frame and the upturn in Baldomero's numbers for example suggest he's a better horse than just wins might show. I don't make too much fuss about field size, if I'm honest, but when considering place form, I only really want to be on runners with at least 2 'greens' from the four going/class/course/distance tabs, which for this race leaves me with (in draw order)...

I am a little concerned about Jack's Point form on standard going, even if he did win this race last year off the same mark as today. He has only raced three times since, failing to make the frame and was beaten by over 16 lengths when last home of seven at Chelmsford nine months ago. I really don't fancy his chance on yard debut, so I'm down to five spread across the track (Crimson Sand will run from #11) where the lower the draw the better chance of winning/placing...

However, that's not exactly true, as stall 1 hasn't fared as well due to the bend, I'd presume, which isn't great for Laheg. The stalls 2 to 8 corridor looks the place to be and that's where four of my six are and although high draws haven't had the best of it, box 11 of 11 has still done reasonably well, but I suspect that Crimson Sand would have to get out pretty sharpish to get near the front early on to stand much chance of landing this, especially based on this...

...which, in turn, removes any element of surprise from this...

And to see who the front runner might be, we check the pace scores from the field's last four races...

...where I suspect Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg will be the most prominent.

Summary

So, the three I've whittled it down to are Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg, although I have a sneaking suspicion that Tyger Bay might go well here back at Lingfield. Crimson Sand is ultra-consistent at making the frame on the A/W with a pair of fourth placed finishes his worst results in a dozen outings. He's currently 8/1 with Hills, but some firms are paying four places and that would make him a decent enough E/W pick.

Baldomero is the one that I think might win, he has a good record over 7f and with a fairly brisk pace expected here, he could well win over 6f at the first time of asking, but Laheg will pose some questions for sure. He comes off a 10-week break during which he was gelded and he's 2 from 3 over 6f on the A/W, having won quite cosily last time out. This pair are 7/2 and 11/2 respectively and they're ones to focus on, I'd have thought.

Please note, I'm away on business with my other job for a couple of days, so my next piece will be a preview of Tuesday's racing.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/02/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.20 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Exeter
  • 4.30 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Warwick
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton

...and as and as Raddon Top's handicap record at Exeter reads 1112 over hurdles followed by 31 over fences, I think we should see if he has any chance of making the frame in Friday's Devon National. That's the 3.15 Exeter on your cards and it's a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed trek of just over 3m6½f on good ground...

Django is our only LTO winner, but featured horse Raddon Top and favori de Sivola both won their penultimate races, whilst Coup de Pinceau and Premier D'Troice won 3 and 5 races back respectively. Copperhead, on the other hand, has failed to make the frame in ten starts over the last three years and only completed five of those runs since a 72-day hat-trick in the winter of 19/20.

Six of these ran at Class 3 on their most recent outing, we have no class droppers, but Samuel Jackson (3rd LTO), Gwencily Berbas/Premier D'Troice/The Macon Lugnatic (all 5th LTO) step up from Class 4. Six of the field have already won at this track, but Gazette Bourgeoise and Django are a combined 0 from 3 here with Premier D'Troice and The Macon Lugnatic making their Exeter debuts.

The only three to have won at this trip have all won over course and distance; Favori de Sivola, Samuel Jackson and Gwencily Berbas, as featured runner Raddon Top has only won here at 2m6f, 2m7½f and 3m½f (over hurdles) and once over fences at 3m and has never raced beyond 3m2f.

Favori de Sivola has had a short six and a half breather since his last run and top weight Coup de Pinceau runs for the first time in almost four months, but the other eight have all been seen in the last four weeks.

We know about course/distance form, but the rest of this field's chasing stats are covered by Instant Expert...

...where Favori de Sivola looks particularly strong. Samuel Jackson's numbers are very good too and Raddon Top only tackled a fence for the first time on New Year's Day. The negatives here are Gwencily Berbas' record at class & going and Premier D'Troice at this level. I mentioned the desperate 3-year form of Copperhead, which explains his 18lbs drop from his last winning mark and it's an even worse tale for Gwencily Berbas who is 1 from 24 since winning at Roscommon in June 2017, whilst The Macon Lugnatic has yet to make the frame in eight starts over fences, so I'll just be looking at these from now...

The ground here at Exeter is quicker than the usual soft/heavy conditions for this race (2013 was the last good ground contest), but that doesn't mean that stamina and race tactics are less important than usual and our pace analyser suggests that those willing to do the hard work upfront do tend to get rewarded...

...BUT if they don't hang on for the win, they end up out of the frame, swallowed up by the prominent pursuers and based on this field's recent outings...

...I'd expect Samuel Jackson and Favori De Sivola to provide the early running with the likes of Gazette Bourgeoise, Coup de Pinceau and Raddon Top ready to pounce. Raddon Top's runs here at Exeter have tended to be more prominent than at other venues and this has proved successful, as he's 4 from 6 with 2 places in handicaps here from a career record of 4 wins from 13. Also worth noting that he's 4 from 8 under today's jockey.

Five of the six left 'in' after Instant expert were the first five on that pace graphic and Django, the odd one out, does tend to run from the back of the field which makes him vulnerable here.

Summary

I think I'll omit Django from the post-Instant Expert half dozen to leave me with half of the field and of the quintet Gazette Bourgeoise and Coup de Pinceau looked the weakest on IE. The latter is more of a placer than a winner and the former is entitled to need a run after another layoff which, almost by default leaves me with featured H4C report horse Raddon Top and the two pacesetters Favori de Sivola and Samuel Jackson.

Raddon Top is the course specialist, of course, but this is almost 6f further than he's ever raced before, but has been in decent form. Samuel Jackson hasn't won any of eight starts since his last win two years ago, but that win was in this race in 2021 and he's 4lbs lighter here and has made the frame in two of his last three, whilst Favori de Sivola is two from three here and won over course and distance two starts ago and I think we might have an interesting contest on our hands.

I completed the above just before 3pm when Samuel Jackson was 8/1 with Bet365, but sadly he's now as short as 9/2 with Stoke's benefactors and my top three are now the three market principals which is more than a tad annoying as the value in advising an E/W bet on Samuel Jackson has now gone. I'm not sure he's quite there to beat Favori de Sivola and with Raddon Top untested/not proven at the trip, my pick of the trio would have to be Favori, who currently (4.15pm) trades at 5/1 with Hills.

Those wanting an E/W play might struggle with six of the ten priced shorter than 8/1!

Racing Insights, Friday 17/02/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced four qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 3.20 Lingfield
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.40 Fakenham
  • 6.00 Dundalk

The second of those 'free' races has a runner from the H4C report, so why do we have a see how Starshiba might get on in the 3.20 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

We'll start with Starshiba's record at this venue which reads 3113137 including 1137 over course and distance. As for the field as a whole, only Unforgotten won last time out and comes here seeking a hat-trick on just his second start in a handicap. He's only had four runs so far, finishing 2211 including 211 at this track/trip, making him the 'form' horse, but only Farasi Lane is winless in five.

Larado is the only one to have raced at this Class 3 least time around, as sole class-dropper Darwell Lion ran at Class 2, whilst Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion, Farasi Lane, Starshiba and Enough Already all step up from Class 4, but bottom weight Brunel Charm was well beaten in a Kempton Class 5. That was just over four months ago and aside from Darwell Lion's 52-day rest and Lord Rapscallion's run four weeks ago, the rest of the field have all seen action this month already.

Larado has won over 1m½f and Brunel Charm over 7f, but they are a combined 0 from 20 at today's trip, whilst the others have all won at the trip. Brunel Charm has at least won on this track over 7f and Brunel Charm scored over 1m2f, whilst Darwell Lion, Unforgotten and Starshiba, are all course and distance winners as shown here...

...where my early concerns centre around Larado (Going/Distance), Farasi Lane (Weight), Enough Already (Going/Distance) and Brunel Charm (Going/Distance) and their numbers on the place stats do little to inspire confidence either...

And if I was to omit those four from my thoughts for now, I'd be left with runners in stalls 3, 6, 7 & 8, so i'm hoping that if there's a draw bias here, it's in the favour of those drawn highest! There isn't a huge advantage to be gained, but given a choice based on the following stats...

...I'd prefer not to be where Darwell Lion is drawn, although closer inspection shows that stall 3 is actually the best of the low draws and has figures not too dissimilar to those drawn highest...

...so I wouldn't rule him out just yet. And whilst there's little to separate them on the draw off over 450 races, there's certainly a pace bias at play with front-runners doing best of all...

...where the basic/general premise is that the further forward you race, the better the chance you have of making the frame and ultimately going on to win, which based on this field's last four runs will suit Unforgotten more than the others...

Of the four we were looking at, Darwell Lion and Starshiba really look up against it from a hold-up position, but all Starshiba's wins/good form here at Lingfield have come from the back, so it's not impossible, but ideally you're a high drawn front runner...

Summary

After shedding half of the field at the Instant Expert phase, I was left with Darwell Lion, Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion and Starshiba, from which Darwell Lion looks the weakest carrying top weight in poor form and running from the back of the field, so he'll not make my final three.

Of the three, Unforgotten has the best pace/draw profile, he scored well on Instant Expert and brings the best form (2211) to the table and I'd be very surprised if he didn't win this relatively comfortably off a mark just 4lbs higher than his course and distance win a fortnight ago. That was his first run for almost 23 months and it took a while for him to get going, but was quite cosy in the end and should come on for the run. Starshiba was 3.25 lengths further back that day and is now 5lbs better off with the winner, so you'd hope/expect him to get a bit nearer this time.

As for Lord Rapscallion, he steps up in class and up to a mile for the first time, but looks the type who seems to find a bit more when needed as typified by back to back wins by a shorthead at Chelmsford in December, doing all his best work late on. He would seem to be the weaker of this trio, but I wouldn't rule out his chances of making the frame.

Sadly, the bookies are also very keen on Unforgotten and he's just the wrong side of even money with both firms currently open for this race (Hills & Bet365) and both go 15/2 about the other pair. I'd expect more money to come for the fav and that might make bothStarshiba and Lord Rapscallion more attractive as E/W propositions.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 10/02/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded no UK qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Southwell
  • 3.15 Southwell
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.45 Kempton
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

And the best of those (on paper, at least) for me to cover looks like being the 6.15 Chelmsford. Just six are set to go to post for this Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

ABSOLUTE RULER drops down a class here and wears cheekpieces for the second time, but they had little effect last time out as he was last home of seven, beaten by 19 lengths over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago. Hard to see him getting involved here and his yard are on a 20+ losing run (as of 3pm Thursday).

FAST STYLE has made the frame in five of seven A/W starts, winning twice, both over a mile at Kempton and Newcastle. Last won three starts ago and was subsequently only beaten by a neck over 1m½f at Wolverhampton at today's class/mark. Wasn't as good at Kempton LTO, but he was up in class that day and now drops back down. This is, however, 1½f further than any of his other A/W efforts.

TARAVARA won at Southwell by a neck over a mile two months ago, but could only manage to finish 10th of 14 back at the same course and distance next/last time out a month ago. That's his only win in twenty career starts and probably won't win this either, even if his yard have a good 1-year (4 from 10) and 5-year (10 from 37) record on this track.

JENSON BENSON is one of just two previous course winners, having landed a Class 6, 7f handicap here nine months ago. He was beaten by a length and a half after being forced wide at Wolverhampton 18 days ago, but he's better than that as typified by three narrow defeats from his previous four outings and is now a pound lower than when sent off as an even money favourite here over a mile last May is a 0.75 length defeat when sent for home a little too late.

GIORGIO VASARI doesn't win many, as shown by a 1 in 16 record on the A/W, but since that win two months ago, which came off the back of a 230-day absence, he has been running consistently well. He won off a mark of 52, but then finished 2232 off marks of 57, 58, 58 and 61 before a below par effort at Wolverhampton last time out in a falsely run race. The step back up in trip might help but others hold more appeal. Wears first-time cheekpieces.

ENGRAVE steps up in class after a win over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago ended a run of 15 straight defeats since the last of her five course and distance wins. She has tackled this track and trip 22 times so far and has made the frame in 12 (54.5%) of them, leading to those five wins. She's up 2lbs for that win, but jockey Rose Daws claims 7, more than making up for the rise. Carrying 10 to 25lbs less than her rivals, she's probably the one to beat here and her course/distance form is easily detected on our Instant Expert feature...

Engrave is clearly far more experienced/exposed than the others, but you do sort of know what you're going to get from her. She's the one closest to her last winning mark and is the course/distance specialist albeit historical form. I'm a little concerned at Jenson Benson and Giorgio Vasari having largely failed at this grade and the latter's 'best' A/W form has been on Tapeta.

With such a small field and a 1m2f trip, I suspect the pace of the race might well prove more important than the draw, but let's quickly check if any of the six might have an advantage at the start...

There's not a great deal in it, if truth be told, but given the choice you'd probably want to be in stall 2 (Fast Style) or on the rail (Engrave), but stall 6 hasn't done badly either, so it's really a case of what you do with the draw, because if you dwell from those preferred stalls, you could be in trouble...

...because it's pretty common knowledge (here on Geegeez anyway!) that pace wins the race at Chelmsford as shown by the stats from those races above, so if Fast Style and/or Engrave are fast starters, they might be tough to catch/beat. Sadly for the former, he isn't, but the sole mare in the race is expected to take it on...

...which creates a little dilemma for me!

Summary

I didn't like Absolute Ruler from the off and neither Taravara nor Giorgio Vasari win often enough for my liking, so that's the field halved. I do like the other trio and I suspect there won't be much to choose between the three.

The mare Engrave won last time out, receives bundles of weight all round and is the course and distance specialist. She's got the best pace/draw profile but wasn't in good form prior to that win last time out and now steps up in class. Fast Style has been in better recent form and has a win and two places from four on polytrack. He seems to have the plum draw and has made the frame in all three runs at this grade. The hope here is that he sets off a bit quicker with Engrave inside of him and he did race more prominently at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. As for Jenson Button, he loves the track here but is unproven at this class and also beyond a mile. His recent form hasn't been as good as Fast Style and he may well be too high in the weights.

It might well be that you can throw a blanket over them at the finish, but if I had to side with one, it would be Fast Style. I'm only really concerned about him getting off quickly enough, but with Engrave on his inside, he should get towed along nicely. Engrave has plenty going for her, but the step up in class and an inexperienced rider might be her undoing.

Fast Style was a best priced 7/2 with Hills at 4pm, whilst Engrave was the same price with Bet365. Jenson Button was a surprising (to me, anyway) early favourite at 3/1 with Hills and only 9/4 with Stoke's finest.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 03/02/03

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Catterick
  • 4.05 Chepstow
  • 4.30 Dundalk
  • 4.40 Chepstow
  • 6.15 Newcastle

...and having made the frame in all seven (six x handicap) career runs at Lingfield, we should see how Starshiba might fare back there for the 2.50 race, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

Starshiba has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six outings, but both Brains (on a hat-trick here) and Unforgotten are the ones who won last time out. The latter, however, carries top weight up in class on handicap debut after an absence of 22 months and might well need a run.

Tropez Power, Enough Already, Gavi Gavi and George Morland have also all won relatively recently with just Farasi Lane, Million Thanks and bottom weight Dashing Dick on losing runs of 11, 5 and 10 races respectively with the latter having a 0 from 12 record on the A/W.

Aside from Unforgotten, none of these are moving class and none have been off track for more than four months with all bar Farasi Lane having raced inside the last five weeks, but he has been off for 109 days during which time he has undergone wind surgery.

Enough Already is showing as having a change of yard and he's now back with Lee Carter, less than eleven months after moving out of the yard. Since then he's had a win and two places from five runs for Henry Spiller and then finished 4th of 8 in both starts for Tony Carroll before finding himself back with Mr Carter.

He has won here over 1m2f and over a mile at Brighton & Yarmouth, but has no course and distance win. That, however, has been achieved by our H4C horse, Starshiba (who has finished 113 in three efforts over C&D), Brains, Gavi di Gavi and George Morland, whilst Tropez Power, Farasi Lane and Million Thanks have at least all won over a mile elsewhere. Only top and bottom weights, Unforgotten and Dashing Dick are winless at both course and distance and this will be reflected by Instant Expert...

Unforgotten is making just a fourth start, but has been a course and distance runner-up at a lower class twice already and may need the run after such a long absence. Tropez Power has ran well on the A/W so far, finishing 61313, but only the '6' came on polytrack when well beaten over 7f at Kempton. Farasi Lane is now some 15lbs higher than his last A/W win, but has actually won off 2lbs higher on turf.

Brains looks consistently solid, but his best form has come on the slower surface at Kempton. Starshiba's only blot is his Class 4 record, but he was a runner-up on both occasions, running on over 7f, so a mile might suit better. Enough Already, however, has struggled to win at Class 4 with a 1/8 record and his best form has been on turf. Gavi di Gavi hasn't this track or trip particularly well in the past, even if he did win over course and distance back in March 2021 and he's still 5lbs higher than that run.

George Morland's numbers are interesting, but his 3 from 3 record at Class 5 compared to 1 from 9 at this level suggests this will be too tough for him, whilst Dashing Dick is just 2 from 29 overall and although he has made the frame in half of his dozen A/W outings, he has yet to break his duck and doesn't look like changing that here.

Our Draw Analyser for similar past races here at Lingfield doesn't show a huge bias...

...but does suggest that the stalls 5 to 9 corridor might have a slight advantage, as they'd hit the turn a little wider and be able to 'cut' the corner and almost slingshot out of it, which is good news for featured runner, Starshiba, who will no doubt let the others get on with things and wait his time at the back, if his last few races are anything to go by...

Brains & possibly the returning Unforgotten are the likeliest front-runners, although going off quickly might not help the latter after such a long lay-off, whilst Starshiba might well have some company at the back of the field, which isn't generally the best placed to be here at Lingfield over a mile as the pace stats from those races above would suggest...

Starshiba is clearly the exception to the rule here, with his excellent record from a hold-up position and were it not for that record, you'd be right to doubt his ability to make up the ground.

Summary

Starshiba has made the frame in all seven visits to Lingfield and has finished 113 in three efforts over this course and distance, despite having a pace profile completely at odds with the way things normally go here. He is, however, well drawn and I can see him making the frame again here. Whether he wins or not is debatable, he was beaten by two heads into third on his last visit off 2lbs lower, so the odds are that a place is as good as it'll get, but at 15/2 early doors, could be a viable E/W proposition.

That market has Unforgotten installed as the 9/4 fav, but he really could be something or nothing. There are too many unknowns about him for my liking and if pushed, I'd prefer the likes of the 5/1 Brains to finish ahead of him.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/01/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a couple of regular placers on the A/W...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.20 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton

From which, I think I'll have a quick look at the two H4C contenders, starting with Man On A Mission, a 4yr old gelding who'll tackle the 3.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed five furlongs on standard polytrack...

MoaM comes here in great form, having won three on the bounce, but Pablo del Pueblo also won last time out. Our runner is noted as a fast finisher and unlike the other LTO winner, isn't stepping up in class here. He's had 16 days rest since his last run/win and now seeks to land a hat-trick of course and distance successes inside 25 days. Three others (Lilkian, Mick's Spirit & Hey Ho Let's Go) have also won here over 5f, whilst Pablo del Pueblo has won here twice over 6f and over today's trip at Kempton.

The two LTO winners look like taking differing approaches to this contest, as Pablo tends to get out quickly, whilst MoaM tends to time his run for the line a little later, according the field's last four outings...

...and the pair are drawn quite a way from each other with MoaM in stall 3 of 8 and Pablo out widest. Our Draw Analyser & Pace Analyser will hopefully give us an indication of where the optimum placing might be, starting with the draw...

...where there's not a massive bias, but if you had the choice, you'd want to be at the lower end of the draw (good news for MoaM), whilst the pace stats from all those races look like this...

...and these are pretty much what I'd expect over 5f. This means that MoaM will have his work cut out to win, but he's won his last two with similar tactics from stalls 2 of 7 and also from 7 of 8, which almost makes a mockery of our pace/draw heat map...

Pablo sits in high/led, which should give him a great chance of going well and whilst MoaM shouldn't be suited by a low/held-up positioning, he's a fast finisher and will relish conditions according to Instant Expert...

...where he's the clear standout. Pablo is unproven beyond Class 6 and is up in class here. Mick's Spirit looks weak at going/class/trip and Lilkian is the only other consistent looking runner based on win stats.

*

Our second runner is Algheed who goes in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta. The racecard...

...says that this 5yr old mare is also in prime form, having won three on the bounce including a course and distance win last time out. None of her rivals come here off the back of a win, but she does step up in class. Three others (Jilly Cooper, Visibility & Global Warning) have also won over course and distance. The yard and jockey are in good form and there's a stack of stats to support our runner here...

Algheed has finished 3111 in her last four by racing in an advanced position and the pace rankings from the field's last four outings suggests she'll be able to tuck in behind Free Solo and Visibility here to get that spot she runs so well from...

...whilst the likes of Rishies Baar and Starshiba are going to have pass everyone else if they're going to be successful. Mind you, the latter is 11313 from his last five, so a hold-up position doesn't necessarily rule him out. He'll make that run from stall 7 with only the likely leader Free Solo outside him. Our featured runner Algheed is just inside in stall 6, so there's a possibility that Starshiba might get drawn into the contest a little sooner than usual.

Of those three runners, the pace stats for past 8-runner 7f contests here suggest Algheed is best suited by the draw...

...whilst a prominent/leading position is the best one to assume in those races...

So, we have Algheed as a mid to high drawn prominent runner and our pace/draw heat map suggests that's a great place to be...

We don't really have any runner to fill the mid-draw mid-div role, so Algheed's placement could well be the best of the lot. There are however, two areas of potential concern as she's going to need another career best here up 5lbs from her last run, but most of these are higher than their last win and the other possible issue is her poor 0/4 record in this grade on the A/W, but her 2 wins and 6 places from 9 Wolverhampton runs might just see her home.

Summary

Two H4C runners in top form...

We started with Man on a Mission, who ticks pretty much every box if you can overlook the fact that he might start slowly, but that hasn't stopped him winning three on the bounce since Christmas. He's only up 3lbs for his latest win and he's the to beat here, I'd say. 5/2 is probably a fair reflection of his chances based on what we've shown above and the main danger might well come from the 11/2 shot Lilkian, who was a length behind the selection LTO and is now 4lbs better off.

Our second runner was Algheed and I like her too, but I'm not quite as bullish about her chances. there are a couple of areas of concern, but she does go really well here and her 2/1 ticket is probably about right. The main rivals in the market are the class-dropping Jilly Cooper, who's back at her best trip and Starshiba, who might well have won last time out had he got going a little sooner. With pace either side of him here, he might get very close to Algheed and I suspect these will be the first three home. Should one fail to fire, it might well open the door to the generally unspectacular, but consistent Visibility, a 4-time track winner, about whom 16/1 might be a tidy E/W punt with Bet365.

You're not getting rich off these two, but they have good chances and they could even land a nice near 10/1 double.

Racing Insights, Friday 20/01/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and as such, have produced two qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, but this selection has been decimated by the current cold snap, leaving us with...

  • 2.20 Southwell
  • 5.45 Newcastle

The latter of those two looks the better contest on paper, so let's have a quick look at the 5.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f...

Bert Kibbler is the only one to have won last time out and he comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins at Southwell. Bellagio Man has made the frame in each of his last seven, including runner-up finishes in each of his last three outings. Modular Magic was also a runner-up LTO.

The bottom three on the card, Bert Kibbler, Modular Magic and Primo's Comet are all up a class, but top weight Papa Don't Preach drops in from from finishing 3rd of 6 at Class 3.

Maritime Rules is the only one yet to win at either trip or track, whilst Motawaazy and Primo's Comet have acheived both here at Newcastle. Bellagio Man's win over 6f here in November makes him the only other course winner, but he's the only other non-winner at 5f. Mind you he's only had one attempt!

Hat-trick seeking Bert Kibbler is not only up in class, but it's also his first run in just over a year, which might be problematical. Maritime Rules has had a seven-week break, but the remainder have all raced in the last three weeks with Papa Don't Preach, Motawaazy and Modular Magic all sighted inside the last week.

We already know that we've three course winners and seven distance winners, but Instant Expert tells me that we've five winners on Std/Slow and two winners on the A/W at this grade...

Motawaazy and Bert Kibbler catch the eye in a largely uninspiring set of figures. Perhaps place data might clarify a few things...

Well, it certainly helps me to eliminate Papa Don't Preach, Dusky Prince and Primo's Comet from my calculations on the basis that if you're scoring red for places, how likely are you to win? Bellagio Man may be 0/9 at this level, but with 7 placed finishes, he's certainly not discounted, especially with a full line of green. After taking those three runners out, my field looks like this in draw order...

...and as you can see, I've removed the two widest drawn runners, which according to our draw analyser, might not be the wisest decision...

..but it does boost the cause of Bert Kibbler in #7, I suppose and if he runs like he was doing last winter, he's the most likely to try to make all here...

...with Instant Expert place eyecatcher Bellagio Man the one to bring up the rear in the early stages. Let's now assess those races from the draw analyser for pace...

...and they're saying that Bert Kibbler's approach should work here, as the further back you race, the harder it is to win, as it is with most 5f contests.

The pace/draw heat map should therefore highlight a high drawn leader as a runner of serious interest...

...and it would suggest that Bert Kibbler is very well positioned.

Summary

Here I have a problem, the pace/draw heatmap is so stacked in Bert Kibbler's favour that it's hard to ignore, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 Tapeta runs over 5f and he does come here on a hat-trick. But there's bad news too, he hasn't raced for just over a year and he's up 8lbs and up in class, so he'd more likely be one for the places if he's not quite race sharp.

The other side of the coin is that I think Modular Magic and Bellagio Man are the best runners in the race (so does the market, sadly), but both are poorly drawn. The former will be closer to the pace than the latter, but the latter's consistency on the A/W is brilliant.

The truth is that I don't know who I think wins this, but if Modular Magic returns to front-running, he could shade it seeing as he lost by a short-head over course and distance a week ago after being unusually held up. He's currently 5/2, Bellagio Man is 9/2 and Bert Kibbler is 6/1. From a value perspective, you'd want the latter to win, but I just can't call it. I think that these are your placers, but none are long enough for me to back E/W, so I'll sit this one out.

Racing Insights, Friday 13/01/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following trio of  qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Huntingdon
  • 3.30 Huntingdon
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.00 Huntingdon

Three on the bounce from Huntingdon hardly seems random, but that's the luck of the draw and I think I'm going to shun the free races to look at the two H4C report horses in the 3.40 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

No LTO winners here, but Rikona won two starts ago and was a runner-up on her last outing. Sundayinmay was also a recent runner-up, as she has been three times in her last five contests. Elsewhere no real form to consider.

D Day Odette has made the frame just once in her eight winless race career and she now drops in class to run here, but both Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa step up a level. Connections of another 8-race maiden, Thefastnthecurious, will hope that a first-time visor helps their mare make the frame for the first on the A/W after three failures to date.

Yet despite the field's apparent poor form and lack of wins, three of the seven (Rikona, Midgetonamission and Miss Elsa) have all scored over course and distance, whilst Sundayinmay is two from three over a mile and a half on this track. Star from Afarhh, like the two maidens mentioned above, has failed to win at either track or trip.

She (Star) has been off the track the longest of this group, but at 37 days since her last run, the lay-off shouldn't really matter. Only Rikona has raced in 2023, finishing half a length behind the winner over 1m3f at Southwell on New Year's Day. She's one of four 4 yr olds in the race with Miss Elsa the "veteran" at seven!

With this field having a combined win & place percentages of 11.48% and 31.97% respectively (39 places including 14 wins from a combined 122 starts), I'm not to hopeful of gleaning much from Instant Expert, but you never know until you look...

We're obviously only going to get reds from the two maidens at the top of the card and most of these have toiled at Class 5, but Miss Elsa has respectable figures at least, especially just on the All-Weather and at 16lbs lower than her last win, might be well weighted here. The two runners drawn lowest have the best records here at Lingfield. With the lack of much data action above, I think I should see if the overall & A/W place figures can help us...

...where Rikona looks a very strong candidate to make the frame here, as do Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa. Midgetonamission loves it here at Lingfield and gets the trip readily, but all her form is at Class 6. It's interesting (to me, anyway) that the two that look best on that last graphic are drawn at polar opposites in the stalls in berths 1 and 7, so it's time to consult the draw analyser to see which, if any, of them might be best suited. My usual caveat is in place, of course, that over 10f, the draw should have the same effect as over 5f, but let's check that draw analyser...

And aside from what looks an anomalous set of figures for stall 4 (poor Star from Afarhh), my caveat seems to be pretty accurate. Yes high draws do better than low draws, but if you look at the actual data, there's really very little in it...

The Pace Analyser, however, does give us more to work with from those races above...

...showing a pretty clear advantage to biding one's time in mid-division. We log how every horse runs in the UK and we can show you the last four outings for each of these seven runners and it's a score of around 2 we're looking for. Higher is OK, but hold-up horses haven't done well at all..

...and we've got a mixed bag here. Miss Elsa likes to race prominently, but tends not to lead. Rikona's best form has come from a hold-up position. I'd expect Thefastnthecurious to be fairly advanced in the field with Miss Elsa. Sundayinmay and D Day Odette look like our mid-div runners we were looking for and although Star from Afarrh led last time out, I suspect she'll be held up with Midgetonamission.

There's a fair bit of conjecture and interpretation there, admittedly, but I think Sundayinmay just about shades the pace verdict, as she marginally did on draw. We can combine the draw & pace data to form our unique Geegeez heat maps as follow...

...where mid to high drawn mid div runners win most often closely followed by the high drawn leaders, whilst the high drawn mid-div runners & leaders again score well on places. Based on what we've seen above, here's how I think the race might unfold in draw order...

In truth, I think it's going to be a falsely-run race with nobody really wanting to take it on and that would just play into the hands of the 'better' runners here. A few of these might be better off breaking out and having a go at it, most are expected to lose anyway.

Summary

For me the two best runners in the race are Rikona and Sundayinmay, sadly the bookies (as of 4.50pm) agree with me and have them as 11/8 and 5/2 market principals and it's probably an indictment of how poor the race is when the top weight and 8-race maiden (D  Day Odette) is next in line at 4/1. If any were to emerge from the pack to challenge the favourites, then Midgetonamission certainly loves it here and at 18/1 with both Hills & Bet365 paying three places, she might be worth a couple of pennies as an E/W interest.

The 1-2, however, should be Rikona and Sundayinmay and I think I'd like the latter from the H4C report to beat the former.