Tag Archive for: Horses for Courses

Racing insights, Friday 19/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a couple of qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.20 Ayr
  • 2.42 Newbury
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 4.05 Fontwell
  • 4.55 Exeter
  • 5.37 Ballinrobe

...and as the highest-rated NH race in the UK not only appears on our 'free' race list, but also has a H4C runner, it mades perfect sense (to me anyway!) to focus on the 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Sadly, our featured runner Dubai Days is now a non-runner, but it's a decent race with or without him, so I'll carry on as planned with what still looks a super-competitive race with no less than six LTO winners. Only Heltenham (2 wins from 3), Take All (3rd LTO), Soul Icon (2nd LTO) and Half Shot (pulled up) failed to win their last race, whilst Prairie Wolf (three wins from four) and Jet Plane are both coming here seeking a hat-trick and all ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings.

Top weight Heltenham drops back down in class today after an Aintree Class 1 handicap defeat (which had been preceded by hcp wins at both C1 & C2), but Nells Son, Prairie Wolf, Soul Icon, Jet Plane and General Officer might all find this race a little tougher as they step up from good runs at Class 3. All ten should, though, be primed for the task in hand as all have had at least one run in the last seven weeks (Heltenham, Jet Plane and Take All have already raced this month).

Newly-scratched H4C runner Dubai Days would have been the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but all of the others bar General Officer and Nells Son have already scored over a similar trip, whilst the latter is the sole previous course winner here at Ayr, having gone unbeaten in a pair of 2m½f bumpers on heavy ground in the winter of 20/21. Instant Expert won't show those runs, of course, as they weren't over fences, but it does highlight that...

...the likes of Heltenham, Nells Son, Prairie Wolf and Numitor should be at home on soft ground, although the latter's record at Class 2 leaves something to be desired. Take All, Half Shot and in-form Jet Plane have struggled to land soft ground chases, although the latter has some form at this trip, as do most of his rivals. From the above, Half Shot looks most vulnerable here, although his place record is, like many of his rivals, decent...

Jet Plane's form on soft ground is now a concern and his overall career record on soft stands at just 2 wins and 1 place from 14 attempts! Half Shot still looks weak here, but does get weight all round and if he runs like he normally does, then I expect him to be well up with the pace, based on his last four efforts...

...with Heltenham (like Dubai Days would have been) a confirmed hold-up horse, but those tactics tend not to work here at Ayr, if past similar contests are anything to go by...

Summary

You could at the outset, make a case for most if not all of the field to put up a decent effort here, but if remove Soul Icon, Jet Plane and Half Shot based on Instant Expert data and Heltenham based on his pace profile, I'm down to six runners, which still isn't ideal. Take All is 0 from 6 on soft ground and has only made the frame twice, so I'd say he leaves here, leaving me with half of the the 10-runner field under consideration.

The conundrum for me here is that I really like Jet Plane, but can't back him based on his soft ground form and whilst I fear that decision coming back to bite me, the two I now like best of the five under consideration are the two at the top of the pace profiler, Outlaw Peter and Prairie Wolf, in that order. They were best priced at 9/2 and 11/2 respectively at 3.45pm, whilst the full market looked like this...

The other three left in my favoured half of the field, Nells Son, Numitor and General Officer are all closely matched on my reckoning and all could feasibly make the frame, but General Officer offers the most value for those of you looking for an E/W play in a tight/tricky race.

 

Racing insights, Friday 12/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Leicester
  • 2.33 Fakenham
  • 4.05 Aintree
  • 5.00 Leicester
  • 5.40 Dundalk

There's no UK racing better than Class 4 away from Aintree, I'm afraid and I'm loathe to tackle our free offering from Liverpool, as 24-runner handicaps really aren't my bag, so next best for us is the 2.33 Fakenham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m5f on good ground...

Despite only five set to race, this actually looks a pretty competitive contest for a Class 4 chase away from the main meeting of the day, so let's have a look at the the runners...

SCENE ONE is two from five over fences, having won here over course and distance on chase debut five months ago. He won again at Market Rasen in January, but now looks in the grip of the assessor. He wore blinkers for the first time 3 weeks ago (4th of 8 at Newbury) and they're in place again here.

JACKS TOUCH is proving to be a better chaser (3 wins from 7) than he was over hurdles (0 from 6) and was a course and distance winner here just before Christmas. Ran poorly last time out (3 weeks ago) when pulled up at Ascot, but a bit too soon to write him off yet.

DO NO WRONG has won three of his last six over fences and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back three mile successes at Uttoxeter, albeit in the summer of 2023. Hasn't been seen for seven months, though, but if race ready would possibly be the one to beat today.

JIGGINSTOWN KING came to life around this time last year finishing 211 in April/May, including a course and distance success. He then completed his hat-trick after a 19-week break but struggled in two subsequent outings. He hasn't raced since Boxing Day and has had a wind operation during the lay-off, so he might be one to watch in a race or two's time.

INGENNIO absolutely trotted up to win here over course and distance at the start of the month, pulling 39 lengths clear in a seller that somewhat fell apart around the halfway mark. It's tough to analyse him on that performance alone, as this looks a much stronger race and he's now up 4lbs.

Instant Expert also confirms the competitiveness of this race, with all runners seemingly well suited to the predicted race conditions...

All five have, of course, scored over this trip. Do No Wrong hasn't raced here before but all his rivals have won over course and distance, so they all know how to win this kind of race, which has in the past really suited those runners keen to get on with things...

...which would seem to suit most of the field...

...as only Do No Wrong isn't used to setting the pace or racing prominently.

Summary

To be honest, when I started out on this one, I expected to be all over Do No Wrong, I think he's the best horse in the race, but this isn't the best race for him. He's been off the track a good while, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than last time and wouldn't appear to be suited by the pace profile. I'd love to be wrong here, but I can't see him winning this one although he will win others!

This leaves me with a problem, because I have reservations over all of the runners here, but I suppose I've got least against Jack's Touch. This race isn't as tough as the Ascot one he faced last time out, he has won over course and distance, he likes to get on with things (that Ascot race aside) and should be race ready. He's currently (5.05pm Friday) best priced at 4/1, but the market shows you how tricky this one is with no E/W option...

Racing Insights, Friday 05/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one UK qualifier..

...but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards as follows...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Fontwell
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 5.50 Wexford
  • 8.30 Dundalk

...from which I'm going to look at Ewan Whillans' Scots Poet, who should be used to the surroundings for the 6.40 Musselburgh, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f and 87yds on soft ground...

Top-weight Russian Virtue comes here on a hat-trick and has three wins and a place from his last four. he has made the frame in each of his last ten NH outings, winning six times, but this has propelled his mark from 85 to today's 114! Coup de Coeur won last time out and is two from four and both Scots Poet and Beaumesnil also come here off the back of wins.

Those without a win in their visible form line are Collingham, Hartur D'Oudairies, Restandbethankful, Mack The Man and The Navigator who are on NH losing runs of 7, 8, 6, 11 and 12 races respectively.

Not one of these actually raced at this grade last time out and all of them bar Scots Poet (up one class) are up at least two classes here with three (Beausmesnil, Mack The Man And Serious Ego) making a triple step up, which wouldn't bode well for Mack the Man breaking his 11-race drought.

Most of the field have raced inside the last seven weeks, but Restandbethankful, Scots Poet and The Navigator now return from breaks of 62, 95 and 160 days respectively with the latter now probably needing a run to get race-fit : not ideal when you've lost your last dozen!

Seven of the field have already won here at Musselburgh and seven (not all the same horses) have scored over a similar trip to this one, but only Cuban Cigar and The Navigator have scored over course and distance and Instant Expert shows us who has done what over this going/class/course/distance over the last two years...

In-form and top-weight Russian Virtue has yet to won at Class 2, but he should certainly relish the ground and the trip and the same can be said about H4C horse Scots Poet, of course. Cuban Cigar has a reasonable record across the board, but I'm hoping the place stats from those races above will be more helpful...

...and they certainly are, even if only to tell me to concentrate on the upper half of the card. I expect most bookies to pay 4 places on this race, so focusing on just seven should simplify the task of at least finding a placer or two.

Our next thing to consider is how the race might pan out in a competitive-looking 13-runner contest on soft ground, where race tactics/tempo aka 'pace' might be a contributory or even deciding factor. Our pace analyser tells us that similar past races have gone like this...

...with horses running in mid-division or further back really struggling to land any kind of blow, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...would make life difficult for any from Hartur D'Oudairies downwards.

Summary

From Instant Expert, we highlighted Collingham, Coup de Coeur, Cuban Cigar, Duyfken, Final Edgar, Russian Virtue and Scots Poet, whilst those at the sharper end of the pace charts were Collingham, Coup de Coeur, Duyfken, Final Edgar, Restandbethankful and Russian Virtue.

Scots Poet is, of course, our H4C qualifier and was also one of our 'form' horses along with Russian Virtue, Coup de Coeur and Beaumesnil.

A quick tally up says that Coup de Coeur, Scots Poet and Russian Virtue tick more boxes than the others, so they'd be my three against the field and I'd probably take them in that order today. Only Hills had prices at 3pm Thursday, but they seem to agree with me about the 1-2 here and that Russian Virtue is less likely to succeed...

I'm not sure yet which way to go about the 1-2, I might dutch them, but Russian Virtue looks like my E/W selection. As for the others on my shortlist, Collingham, Duyfken and Final Edgar make more appeal than Cuban Cigar from an E/w perspective and all are at very backable odds.

Racing Insights, Good Friday 29/03/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Good Friday...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Chelmsford
  • 1.53 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield

There's a cracking-looking card  (on paper, anyway) up in the North East and of the three Class 2 contests above, I've decided to look at Sibyl Charm and the 3.00 Newcastle based on field size and race distance. It's a 9-runner, A/W handicap for 4yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 7f on standard tapeta and here's how they'll line up...

Hodd's Girl and Smiling Sunflower look like they might be vulnerable here, but I think the remaining seven all stand a chance of being involved in the shake-up. Top weight Nine Tenths won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings, whilst Cloud Cover has three golds and a silver from five runs and now wears a hood for the first time. Shades of Summer has won her last three, Just Spark is three from four and feature horse Sibyl Charm comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 4 runner-up places from her last seven. The only runner without a recent win is Aramis Grey, but even she has made the frame in each of her last five efforts.

Nine Tenths is already in good nick, but should benefit from a drop in class today having won a Listed race at Wolverhampton quite cosily three weeks ago, but it might be more of a struggle for Just A Spark and Sibyl Charm who are both up two classes, whilst bottom weight Smiling Sunflower is asked to step up three levels, which could be tough, especially at 5lbs outside the handicap.

Of the nine runners, Just A Spark is the only one yet to win over today's trip, as today will be her first effort. Nine Tenths has already won here at Newcastle, scoring over 6f back in November, whilst Shades of Summer and Sibyl Charm have both won over course and distance, the latter doing so twice from three attempts and her course form is reflected in Instant Expert...

...as is Smiling Sunflower's generally poor A/W record, whilst Aramis Grey looks out of her depth at Class 2 from a win perspective, but she does seem to have the knack of finishing in the frame...

Smiling Sunflower is definitely out of contention for me here from what I've already seen and the takeaways from Instant Expert were Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, whilst Aramis Grey's 90% place strike rate at this class is impressive after so many runs. She'd be an unlikely winner at this point, but she's firmly in my mind as an E/W possible on the basis of the above data.

Whilst Nine Tenths led the way above, she's just on the cusp of being well drawn as those drawn higher over 7f here at Newcastle have fared better. It's strange to have a pronounced bias over a straight run on an artifiical surface, but surely the stats can't lie...

...and I think the cut-off comes around stall 5 (Nine Tenths is in number 4!)...

...although I suspect that with most straight line sprints that the pace angle will reveal more about a horse's chances and those 150+ races above have really suited horses keen to get on with things. Leaders win more than their fair share of races, but are often susceptible to being picked off late on by the prominent chasers...

...which unfortunately leads me to a bit of a quandary, as over a 4-race period we don't seem to have any genuine front runners...

..but if we stick to the field's two most recent outings (under the logic that if they're all in pretty decent nick they'll run more like their last two than 3 or 4 races ago), a slightly clearer patter emerges...

...where it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Sibyl Charm will end up setting the pace, but will be vulnerable to the likes of Shades of Summer and Nine Tenths and even Cloud Cover.

Also, when there's the distinct possibility of a falsely-run race, the better horses tend to fare best and this again points to Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, who were the Instant Expert standouts for me.

Summary

No surprises here, but the two I'd take against the field are Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer and as such, it's equally unsurprising that they head the field at 5/2 and 4/1 respectively, but this does open up the prospect of an E/W bet, with the rest of field trading (as of 3pm Thursday) at 7/1 or bigger.

As E/W possibles, I am interested in both Cloud Cover and Aramis Grey and I think I might just have a preference for the latter at 8/1. She doesn't win often enough, but she's really consistent at this level finishing 222123232 in nine Class 2 contests since November 2022.

Happy Easter, everyone! I'm taking a few days off with the family, so I'll be back on Tuesday.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 22/03/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 3.12 Lingfield
  • 3.33 Newbury
  • 7.30 Dundalk

And I think I'll take a look at One More Dream in the 6.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

This looks like a pretty open contest with several holding claims. Featured runner One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four, Lahab has a win and three places from four, Abruzzo Mia and Mumayaz both won last time out, whilst Danielsflyer has won each of his last three. Feel The Need and Streak Lightning are, however, winless in twelve and ten races respectively.

Streak Lightning's hope of breaking that long losing run don't appear to be helped by him stepping up a class here, as are One More Dream, Abruzzo Mia and bottom-weight Rory, whilst Mumayaz is up two grades today. All bar Feel The Need have had a run in the last three weeks, but he now returns from almost six months off, during which time he has switched yards and now makes a debut for Michael Herrington.

All nine runners have already won over this trip with only Lahab, Feel The Need, Mumayaz and Rory yet to score over course and distance. The latter pair, Mumayaz (over 6f) and Rory (over 5f & 6f) have, however, already won on this track and Instant Expert will document the field's form over the last two year's under similar conditions...

Fast0finisher Starshiba has been decent across the board, if unspectacular, whilst One More Dream has a great record at track/trip. Abruzzo Mia's numbers are creditable and Danielsflyer is probably the standout here. Streak Lightning has found it hard to win on going/class and distance and the going certainly hasn't favoured Mumayaz or Rory with the latter also struggling to win over 7f, although they have managed to make the frame in several of their defeats, according to the place data for those very races...

...which suggests that all of these have done well enough to make the frame quite often, whilst Feel The Need runs on the A/W for the first time. His introduction to this sphere of racing will come from a fairly high (7 of 9) draw, but our draw analyser suggests that this might be helpful from both a win and place perspective...

Personally, I remain unconvinced about draw bias on straight tracks, but that above is what the data tells us. I'm more inclined to take notice of any perceived pace bias than the draw stats if truth be told and for those 150+ races above, our Pace Analyser says...

...that leaders win more than their fair share of races here, but that those just following closely behind do have a tendency to pick them off and 'steal' the win. Any further back into mid-field can be a difficult place to win from, as those runners have only won 43.8% of the races despite having 54.9% of the runners and if we look at the field's last few outings...

This could be good news for Lahab, Abruzzo Mia, Starshiba and One More Dream and if we look at the pace/draw heat map...

...Abruzzo Mia would be the one to take from that piece of data.

Summary

An open-looking contest and when I wrote the piece just ater 3pm on Thursday I had no odds to work with, but I was more interested in (alphabetically) Abruzzo Mia (Form/Instant Expert/Pace & Draw), Danielsflyer (on form/IE), Lahab (form/pace), One More Dream (Form/H4C/IE) and Starshiba (IE/pace).

I've only ruled four out at this stage, but will return later with a decision, once I've seen the market and decided which (if any) represent enough value for me to want to suggest putting money down

OK, it's now 6.30pm and here's the market...

..and based on the above, I think I'm just going to play a small E/W bet on Starshiba. If pushed for a winner, my tentative selection would be Abruzzo Mia ahead of One More Dream.

Racing Insights, Friday 15/03/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.25 Fakenham
  • 5.00 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton
  • 7.40 Newcastle

Of the seven races above, the one from the Festival is clearly the highest-rated, but I tend to leave big-race analysis to the Geegeez experts elsewhere on the site. The 'free' list does, however, contain a nice-looking contest over in Norfolk, so let's tackle the 4.25 Fakenham aka the Fakenham Silver Cup, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground, that might be a little softer in places...

Only Coup de Coeur managed to win last time out and he's 2 from 4, as is Magical Maggie (she's also 3 from 6). Ip Up is 2 from 5, whilst both Legionar and Whispering Royal are 2 from 7; Jilaijone and Fransham are winless in ten and thirteen respectively.

Jilajione's chances of breaking his cold spell are boosted by him dropping down two classes and Whispering Royal drops down one level for his handicap debut, but Legionar and Coup de Coeur are both up a class.

At 76 and 79 days off respectively, Magical Maggie and Tapley are the most rested, but that length of layoff should be an issue here and all the field have had pretty much three weeks or more to get over their last run.

Jilajione is the only one yet to score at this kind of trip, his sole win on debut was over 2m2f and only Ip Up has won on this track, as she landed a Class 4, good to soft ground handicap over course and distance by some 18 lengths back in November, five starts ago, as seen on Instant Expert below...

...where the top-rated (although aided by a 5lb claimer), 7 yr old mare Magical Maggie looks the pick of the bunch with an honourable mention to Matchless. Out of form Fransham's stats are very unappealing and Tapley's record at this level is poor and unless their place stats say they've been unlucky, I'll be disregarding them. And here are those place stats...

Fransham and Tapley's stats are better here, but they're still not close to the likes of Magical Maggie and also Matchless. This pair are expected to be up with the early pace, based on the field's most recent efforts...

...with only Jilaijone really considered to be a hold-up horse. This running style would now appear to be the final blow to his chances of breaking his 10-race drought, as this course and distance hasn't been kind to hold-up types in the past...

Summary

Coup de Coeur is our only LTO winner and is one of the 'form' horses here along with Magical Maggie and Ip Up. Magical Maggie was the eyecatcher from the Instant Expert win stats, whilst the place records of Matchless was also decent. The pace analysis only really served to help me rule out Jilaijone and in what looks a competitive race, I think I'll take Coup de Coeur, Magical Maggie and Ip Up as my three against the field.

I'd no odds to call upon at 2.45pm on Thursday, but if pushed for a 1-2-3 I'd probably go with them in the order I've listed them. Coup de Coeur was imperious at Sedgefield last time out and is 2 from 2 under today's jockey. Magical Maggie had a 14-length success at a higher grade two starts ago, but needs to get over a disappointing run last time out, whilst Ip Up was a recent course and distance winner.

Coup de Coeur here for me and E/W bets on all three if they're anything like 15/2 or bigger. Tapley might be the danger horse to my trio.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 08/03/2024

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one UK qualifier plus one in Ireland...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 7.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk
  • 8.15 Dundalk
  • 8.30 Newcastle

...which doesn't actually give me a great deal of choice, seeing as I don't really 'do' Irish racing. That said, Enola Grey's race above is the joint third-highest rated race in the UK and the day's second most valuable, so let's have a closer look at the 7.30 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight mile on standard tapeta...

Sole LTO winner and bottom weight Danielsflyer comes here on a hat-trick after scoring over course and distance a week ago. Hartswood, Lahab, Hortzadar, Gainsbourg, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey and Star Shield have all won once in their last seven outings, whilst Paris Lights has lost seven in a row and Torchlight, King Sharja and L'Argent have yet to win after four, three and four attempts respectively; L'Argent was also 0 from 4 in France.

The card also indicates that Hartswood, featured horse Enola Grey and Star Shield are fast finishers, but the latter pair of that trio are both up one class here, as are King Sharja and L'Argent, whilst bottom-weight hat-trick seeker Danielsflyer is up two levels, making life tougher.

Better news for Torchlight, who drops two classes for her second handicap outing; Lahab also makes a secind handicap appearance, whilst it's handicap debut day for King Sharja, who runs for Ruth Carr for the very first time after leaving Richard Hannon's yard.

Not only is this his handicap and yard debut, it's also his first run in almost ten months, during which time he was gelded, so he might well need the run. Lahab and Hartswood are coming off short breaks of 52 and 61 days respectively and the rest of the field have all had at least one outing in the last month.

Half of the field (Hartswood, Hortzadar, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey, Star Shield and Danielsflyer) are course and distance winners, whilst Gainsbourg has also won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...but the overall picture isn't great for many of these. Kng Sharja makes an A/W debut and Star Shield's record on the A/W especially at track/trip is particularly poor. Thnakfully the place stats from those races above give me more to work with...

...from which, I'm going to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield from my enquiries leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 and 12 over a course and distance that has tended to suit the higher-drawn (7+) runners most...

...which is another tick for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight, who will run from widest of all. Mind you, there are no bends to contend with, so she just needs to aim straight! Those 150+ races above don't seem to have much of a pace bias and horses have been able to win with any running style...

Leaders have fared worst of all, but the difference in strike rates isn't huge and I wouldn't rule Lahab out of the running, simply because his recent runs have shown that he likes to set the pace...

Summary

A bit of a strange one today, as very few of these are in good form and the form horse is up two classes. We didn't get anything from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats led me to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield. We then discovered that those drawn highest seemed to have an advantage which was better news for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight and the lack of any distinct pace bias leaves all four in my thoughts.

Of the four, it's easy/sensible to discard Star Shield on current form, leaving me with my three vs the field, but I think that without any clear guidance from the toolkit (and this does happen, we're not perfect!), the smart move is to call no bet and walk away, move to your next race and that's what I'll do here. I think that my final three will all go well here, but I really can't call it in what look a super-competitive event, as exemplified by the 6pm market, where the top seven in the odds are separated by just 1.5pts...

Good luck whichever way you play this one, but I'll keep my money in my pocket.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Friday) for Saturday's racing, as I'm travelling down to Exeter so sort some University stuff out for my daughter, so I'll be back Sunday evening with a race preview for Monday. I hope you all have a great weekend.

Racing Insights, Friday 01/03/2024

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no UK qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.37 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 6.45 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...from which I'll tackle the first on the list, the 2.37 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

FORM : Bottom-weight Balon D'or is the only one of the twelve runners without a win in their last five (or fewer) outings, having been beaten in all ten starts since winning on debut almost eleven months ago. Those with multiple wins in the recent formline include Brave Empire (3 from 4), Salvuccio (2 from 4), Billy Webster (3 from 4), Blue Prince (2 from 3), Beyond Borders (3 from 3 and 4 from 6), Photosynthesis (2 from 5) and McLoven who is 2 from 3; Brave Empire won last time out, Billy Webster comes here seeking a hat-trick and Beyond Borders completed a hat-trick last time out, so plenty are in good form.

CLASS : Only five of the field ran at Class 2 last time out, as top weight Rosario was a Group 3 runner-up, whilst McLoven was 8th of 9 in a Class 3 handicap and moves up a level here. Bigger steps are taken by Billy Webster (won), Beyond Borders (won), Photosynthesis (3rd of 6) and Balon D'or (3rd of 6) who all raced in Class 4 handicaps, whilst Salvuccio's last UK run saw him win a Class 5 novice race and I suspect this will be tougher.

WHAT'S NEW : Quite a bit it appears! Rosario and The Coffee Pod are both on handicap debut, whilst Salvuccio and World of Darcy make just a second handicap appearance. Photosynthesis, Salvuccio and Blue Prince all run for the first time since being gelded and the latter has been highlighted as a fast finisher, whilst Balon D'or wears a cheekpiece/tongue tie combo for the first time.

LAST SEEN : Rosario, The Coffee Pod and McLoven have all been off the track for 20 weeks and might need the run, as might Beyond Borders after a 16-week absence. Elsewhere, aside from Billy Webster's 8-weeks off, the remainder of the field have all raced in the last 21-26 days.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Blue Prince (Newcastle, Southwell & York), Beyond Borders (Newcastle, Pontefract, Thirsk & Wolverhampton)), The Coffee Pod (York) and World of Darcy (Nottingham) have all won over this trip away from Lingfield, whilst both Brave Empire and Photosynthesis are course and distance winners. McLoven has also won here but over 5f. Much of this will show below in Instant Expert, of course...

...and if we remove Turf runs...

...we initially see that Rosario and The Coffee Pod are on A/W debuts. Overall Balon D'or looks vulnerable at both class and trip, whilst G'day Mate has a full line of red across both codes, whilst World of Darcy's Class 5, 6f win at Nottingham is all that stands between him and a line of red too. Conversely, Brave Empire looks a solid contender on the above data and this is backed up by his place percentages...

...where my attention is also grabbed by Blue Prince (trip), Beyond Borders (trip) and The Coffee Pod (class & trip), which is handy as I suspect the bookies might pay four places here.

With a dozen runners attacking a bend on a 6f sprint, the draw might have plenty to do with the outcome here today and the stats from past similar places look like this...

.with those drawn in the lowest third (ie stalls 1-4) winning 1.18 times more often than those in stalls 5-8 and 1.37 times more often than the highest third. As for the places, those figures are very similar at 1.14 and 1.27 and this advantage in being drawn low is highlighted by the PRB3 figures...

...where the first 5 (possibly 6/7) in the stalls would appear to have a clear advantage. If we then look at how those 130+ races above were won...

...we see another clear advantage forming as the further forward a horse has raced, the better its chances of making the frame and ultimately winning have been and unsurprisingly, low to mid-drawn pace-setters have been the most successful in those races...

The pace tab on our racecards show how the runners have approached their most recent UK races, enabling us to (a) make a reasoned assumption to how the race will unfold and (b) see where exactly in the stalls that early pace is going to cone from, as follows...

...where the suggestion is that McLoven will attempt to hit the front early and try to stay there, whilst the likes of Salvuccio, Rosario and Blue Prince are going to have to pass plenty of traffic if they want to win. If we put this data into stall order, we get this...

...where the four of the top five pace scores are in the lower half of the draw and when we place that graphic over the heat map from the last 60 such contests...

Summary

The inference from the pace/draw stats and heat map is that McLoven will run a big race here and whilst not an obvious winner based on a poor run last time out and a 140-day absence, he is 2 from 2 on the A/W including a win here over 5f on handicap debut last September where he made all. He'll probably need the run, but I'm not quite ready to discount him as an E/W possible if I can get a decent price about him.

Beyond Borders is next of interest on that chart and is in great form, winning each of his last three outings and he's also 2 from 2 on the A/W, but like McLoven, has been off a while. His A/W runs have both been on tapeta, so it's a polytrack debut and he's up 5lbs for a 0.75 length win, which makes this tough. I'll probably discount him from my win considerations, but he too could be an E/W possible. G'day Mate is the other standout from pace/draw, but he was only fourth of five behind Brave Empire here over course and distance last time out, so that rules him out and brings me to Brave Empire himself. Not ideally drawn, nor fast away and I think that might be his undoing, as it might well be for Rosario, which is a pity as I think they might be the best two in the race.

Rosario makes an A/W debut and I just can't back him, based on that plus the pace/draw stats and his 140-day absence, but something niggles me saying he just might win. Brave Empire was suited by the way the race unfolded last time out, but pace/draw relegate him to the ranks of E/W possible too and I'll be honest, I'm struggling to find/pick a winner here!

Let's look at the 5.10pm market to see how those mentioned so far are priced and I see that we have Rosario at 11/2 (PP/betfair), Brave Empire at 7/1 (bet365), Beyond Borders at 10/1 (generally) and McLoven at 22/1 (PP/betfair/Hills) and I think I'm going to have small E/W bets on the latter trio; Rosario is just a bit too short.

I could make a case for Photosynthesis and Salvuccio, but they're not attractively priced enough for me at 7/2 and 7/1, so I'll stick with my trio of E/W hopefuls.

Racing Insights, Friday 23/02/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers and your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Lingfield
  • 2.33 Exeter
  • 3.52 Warwick
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.15 Dundalk

...and with a pair of H4C qualifiers taking each other on in difficult conditions, let's head for the 4.10 Exeter, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on heavy ground...

Top-weight Bells of Peterboro, Cedar Row, Striking A Pose and House of Stories all won last time out, but Farmer's Gamble, Decorated, Raddon Top and bottom weight Longshanks all failed to finish. That last pair of Raddon Top and Longshanks are the only ones without a win in their last five outings or more, having tasted defeat in seven and nine on the bounce respectively.

Most of these ran at Class 4 last time out, bit Farmer's Gamble and Rock Danse both drop down a class here and the latter makes just a second handicap start today, as does Cedar Row, whilst it's handicap debut day for House of Stories. We've some first-time equipment on show today for Decorated (cheekpieces), Raddon Top (blinkers) and Lanspark (visor) and it's also Decorated's first run since recent wind surgery and it'll be Farmer's Gamble's second time in cheekpieces.

Famer's Gamble hasn't raced for three months and Decorated for two months, but the returner here is Cedar Row who has been off the track for 17 days short of a year since landing a soft-ground 2m5f hurdle at Warwick on handicap debut. Aside from this trio, the remainder of the field have all raced in the last 20 to 32 days.

Raddon top won this race two years ago and is one of two former course and distance winners alongside Farmer's Gamble who scored here four starts ago at the start of February 2023. Striking A Pose(2m3f hurdle & chase), Chloe's Court (2m5½f/2m6f hurdles) and Longshanks (2m3f chase) have all won on this track, whilst Bells of Peterboro, Chloe's Court and Lanspark have all prevailed over this type of trip in the past...

Those who have managed to stay out of the red are relatively inexperienced under these conditions, whilst those with more races under their belts haven't really managed to win anywhere near as often as they'd have liked. Bells Of Peterboro is 0 from 8 at the trip, Raddon Top has struggled at class/trip and Lanspark has only won one of nine at Class 4.

If the field's recent efforts are anything to go by, we might have a three-way battle for the early lead...

...with Farmer's Gamble the likely back marker, but it is those that set the pace that tend to do best here...

...although it's a fairly small sample size.

Summary

The 7.15pm market for this pretty open race looks like this...

...and of the two favourites, I'd prefer Cedar Row based on the evidence from Instant Expert, even if Bells did win last time out and will race further forward. That said, I'm not rushing to back either at those prices. In fact I'd be more interested in small E/W plays on Chloe's Court and Striking A Pose. The latter won here last time out and has made the frame in three of his last five and five of his last eight, whilst the former was a runner-up here over course and distance and has finished 1142 in her last four outings.

Racing Insights, Friday 09/02/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.40 Kempton
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 2.20 Bangor
  • 3.20 Bangor
  • 4.50 Kempton

...I was going to see if I could find myself an E/W selection or two in the North Wales National, but that's fallen by the wayside now and I'll switch attention to Master of Combat from the H4C report and the 4.07 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

This looks a really competitive affair for a Class 4 handicap and plenty will fancy their chances, but only top-weight Wadacre Gomez won last time out and he's two from three. Featured runner Master of Combat (winner of 3 from 7), Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars all had top three finishes on their last outings.

Law Supreme has failed to win any of his five starts in the UK and has now lost 8 in a row, whilst Buxted Too, Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars are all on winless runs of nine, seven and seven races respectively and with Light Up Our Stars now stepping up in class, I'm not sure he's going to snap that cold spell.

Better news for the fast finishing pair Master of Combat and Ernie's Valentine, who both drop down a class as does Buxted Too who at five weeks since his last run, is actually the longest rested of the whole field. he has yet to win at either track or trip, but Master of Combat and Arcadian Nights are both course and distance winners, whilst Ernie's Valentine, the first-time tongue-tied Eagle Day and Light Up Our Stars have all already won over 1f shorter (1m½f) here at Wolverhampton and those course wins are highlighted below by Instant Expert...

Master of Combat's better form has come over slightly shorter trips, whilst Ernie's Valentine has struggled at both going/class. Arcadian Nights is a Class 5 runner in reality and his better Wolverhampton efforts are well over 2yrs ago. Hale End and Law Supreme both have full lines of red from a small sample size and Light Up Our Stars looks generally weak across the board, despite a 20% strike rate on standard going.

The place stats from those races above look like this...

...and if I was to split that in half, these would be the half dozen who look best on that data...

They're strung across the track in stalls 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 and 10, so if the draw stats show a lower half bias, that could be good for me. Let's check over the last 200 or so similar races...

Not exactly a low bias or much bias at all if truth be told, but those drawn highest have fared less well than the others, so that's not great for Ernie's Valentine from my half dozen and if recent performances are anything to go by, then he's a likely back marker in the early stages here...

...which is also far from ideal over a course and distance that has favoured the runners up with or just off the pace...

Summary

Based on the above and using my shortlisted half-dozen, the one I like best is the 5/1 (bet365 @ 5.25pm) Wadacre Gomez. He won last time out, is two from three, his yard is in good form, he scored well on IE and might well get a very easy/soft lead here. I also like featured horse Master of Combat, but his lack of early pace and the extended trip have dissuaded me from backing him to win this and at 7/1, he's no E/W play for me either, although he should make the frame.

Bet365 offer 4 places and 8/1 about Eagle Day, so that could well be a decent E/W bet, whilst I'm intrigued by the 20/1 offered about My Little Queen and I could well be tempted to have a couple of quid on that as an E/W option too. She's unlikely to win, but 20's looks far too big and the step up in trip should help her, as she has made the frame in half of her 16 races between 1m½f and 1m2f, winning three times.

Racing Insights, Friday 02/02/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.25 Southwell
  • 4.25 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Newcastle

Our UK free races are a Class 4 Novice hurdle and a Class 6 A/W sprint, neither of which really appeal to me, so I'm going to have a look elsewhere and I've spotted a stayers' contest on testing ground that might be interesting. It's the 3.35 Catterick, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m1½f on soft ground that may be heavy in places...

Shantou Moon and Champ Royal both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last four, but steps up a class here, as does Not Staying Long who won three races ago. Danny The Fence won four starts back, Sam's Choice won five back and Shantou Moon 7 races ago.

Only Guernesey and Balkotic have failed to win in seven and their losing runs currently stand at 10 and 7 races respectively. Guernesey might find this a little easier in first-time cheekpieces as he now drops down a level, whilst top-weight Sam's Choice is down two classes.

The entire field have raced in the last 18 to 45 days, so no fitness excuses are to be expected and the bottom three on the card, Not Staying Long, Shantou Moon and Balkotic are all course and distance winners with Shantou Moon achieving the feat last time out three weeks ago and is raised 4lbs for that run, as shown on Instant Expert...

Shantou Moon looks the pick there off an admittedly small number of races and he won well here over course and distance last time out. Guernesey has a couple of Class 4 wins under his belt but has yet to win in seven on soft ground, which would be a concern if he hadn't made the frame in three of them as seen below where Sam's Choice and Balkotic are also of interest...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that there are rewards for those willing to take the race on and set the tempo...

...which based on recent efforts, would appear to be another positive for Balkotic...

...although Shantou Moon did win here over course and distance on soft ground from a hold-up position three weeks ago.

Summary

Fairly straightforward race for me to quickly zip through. Shantou Moon won well here last time out on soft ground, isn't raised too much by the assessor, scores well enough on Instant Expert and should be the one to beat here. His pace profile suggests he'd find it difficult and that might well be the case if there were a few keen to get on with it, but there isn't, so I'd still side with the 4/1 (Hills @ 5.1pm) Shantou Moon here.

On his day, the 6/1 (Bet365) Guernesey would be my second option and he wasn't beaten by far at Kelso the last time he ran at this grade finishing second just three quarters of a length adrift two months ago off today's mark and a similar run here puts him very much in contention for at least a place, as should/could Balkotic's early pace, especially if he's allowed a soft lead. He was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out off this mark and will fancy it again. He's currently 13/2 and with bookies paying three places, both he and Guernesey could be viable E/W options.

Racing Insights, Friday 26/01/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.15 Sandown
  • 1.27 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...but I'm going elsewhere for today's race preview and plumping for one of the day's joint highest rated contests, the 3.35 Sandown, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground that will hopefully throw up some interesting E/W options from the following...

Issam, Spring Note and Clondaw Royale all won last time out. Chez Hans was a faller on his last run, having won each of his previous five, but an 878 day absence casts doubts on him here. Mullinaree has won four of his last seven, Lord of Cheshire os three from five and a runner-up LTO, Issam is two from three, as is East India Express, whilst Bashers Reflection is three from five.

So, plenty in decent nick, but top weight Jatiluwih is the only one without a win in seven, having been beaten in eleven on the bounce since a win at Cheltenham way back in November 2019. Last seen on New Year's Day finishing last of ten, he can join Chez Hans on my reject list, as can Robin's Dream who makes just a second handicap start some 382 days after his last run, when only third of four runners. Should he actually run here, it will be only his second outing since the end of May 2021, so he's likely to be rusty.

The two long-standing absentees aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last four to eight weeks. Of the ten still under consideration, three (Gytename, Sholokjack and Bashers Reflection) are down a class, whilst three others (Lord of Cheshire, Clondaw Royale (hcp debut today) & Havaila are up one class with four
(Mullinaree, Issam, Spring Note, & handicap debutant East India Express) having raced at this Class 3 level.

None of this field have won here at Sandown before, but only Sholokjack, Issam, Robin's Dream and Havaila (twice) have run here before, sharing just five appearances. Trip-wise, only Issam, East India Express and Robin's Dream are yet to win over a similar trip and we can assess going/class/course/distance records at a glance via Instant Expert...

...which despite a fair smattering of red, doesn't hold too many horror stories. Lord of Cheshire carries 10lbs more than his last win, but is in good nick. Spring Note is up 13lbs for cantering home 16 lengths clear last time, but won still have won comfortably off today's mark.

Despite the soft ground, I'd expect there to be quite a bit of early pace to this one, if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...with at least half of the field usually keen to get on with things. The danger, of course is that they can't all lead, so some might end up doing too much too soon. Sholokjack is a confirmed hold up despite leading early four starts ago. That's the only non hold-up run in his 10-race career so far and he fell that day too! he's probably he only real hold-up horse in the contest, yet our Pace Analyser suggests that this wouldn't be a bad tactic, as it's front-runners who have tended to struggle here...

Summary

If I'm honest, I don't expect the field to race to the pace chart above, after all they can't all be classed as prominent runners, unless they run in a pack, so I've gone back to Instant Expert and looked at the place stats to eradicate any runner with any red for going/class/course/distance...

...from which I think Spring Note and Issam are my best chances of finding a winner and Lord of Cheshire / Mullinaree the ones I expect to go off at a decent price and have a chance of making the frame with bookies paying four places.

The truth is that all eight have a decent chance of making the frame, but I can't suggest backing all eight, can I?

Spring Note was very impressive last time out and sauntered home well clear of the pack whilst Issam always seems to be there or thereabouts, rarely running a bad race. Lord of Cheshire has finished 11612 in his last five and should find this a little easier than the slog through heavy ground at Haydock he faced when a good second of eight conceding 17lbs to a horse completing a 37-day hat-trick. As for Mullinaree, he's likely to be a big price, but he relishes this trip and is only 2lbs higher than when completing a five-timer at Hexham last June.

Let's check the market...at 5.30pm Thursday, my quartet were best priced as follows, Spring Note 4/1, Issam 7/1, Lord of Cheshire 8/1 and Mullinaree at 28/1! I expected Spring Note to be around 3/1, so I'm very happy with 4's and with bookies paying four places, I think my other three are all worth considering as E/W options.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/01/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a pair of qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Market Rasen
  • 1.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.10 Lingfield
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...but sadly like racing in general, the free list has been decimated by the weather. That said, the H4C report race is the most valuable UK race to have survived the weather and it's the joint highest rated, so let's a look at the 2.15 Wolverhampton featuring Follow Your Heart, Beauty Choice and eight other runners in a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that the three heading the market at 2.45pm (Al Farabi, Johnny James & Follow Your Heart) would be the ones to best here, but the market isn't always right, nor are my initial thoughts, so let's dive into the card.

Our two featured runners are top and bottom weights here, rated some 17lbs apart, but it's two runners from the middle of the weights, Eden Storm and Wiseacre, who are our LTO winners today. Johnny James and Al Farabi were both runners-up, though, whilst Sir Maxi was third home. All ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings and only Wiseacre has been off the track for six weeks or longer and may well need the run after a 221 day absence.

The card has denoted the bottom three in the weights, Sir Maxi, How Impressive and Beauty Choice as fast finishers, but the latter of that trio steps up a class here. Wiseacre return from a long break to make a yard debut for Des Donovan and also has to contend with stepping up two classes, but both Follow Your Heart and The Turpinator drop two classes.

The well fancied Al Farabi makes a second handicap appearance here following a 1-length defeat on debut three weeks ago, but like all bar Johnny James and the returning Wiseacre, he has already won over today's trip, whilst our four previous Wolverhampton victors, Follow Your Heart, Visibility, Eden Storm and Beauty Choice, have all won over course and distance, giving us a good smattering of green on Instant Expert...

...where How Impressive looks less than impressive (sorry!). There are doubts about Visibility at this level (1 from 11), but despite a fair amount of red, no other real causes for concern. In fact, only Visibilty, Wiseacre and How Impressive fail to have any green from the going/class/course/distance stats and I'd probably rule them out now.

Over the last five years in similar races, those drawn low to middle (especially those in stalls 2 to 6) have fared best...

...whilst those races have rally suited those keen to 'get on with things' early...

...with low to mid-drawn prominent runners faring best...

If we then look at how these runners have tackled their last few races...

Summary

It looks like Johnny James and Al Farabi fit the pace/draw requirements best here. They're both drawn low and both will be keen to hit the front end early. Wiseacre may well attempt to challenge for the lead, but he'll have to come from stall 10 and probably won't be fit enough to maintain his effort.

Both Johnny James and Al Farabi are in great form and I'd expect them to be the first two home. I have them very evenly matched, so it could go either way. That said Johnny james would offer better value at 5/1 than Al Farabi's 5/2, so make of that what you will.

You can then make a case for several of these to make the frame, but as I prefer to take 8/1 or better for an E/W bet, it does rule a few out, but one of our featured horses, Beauty Choice, might be the one, as I think he's better than 10/1 might suggest.

Racing Insights, Friday 12/01/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.50 Huntingdon
  • 3.07 Sedgefield
  • 7.15 Dundalk
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

It's not the best race in the world (or even on the card!), but it makes sense to try and 'marry up' the daily free feature with the daily free cards, so we're going to look at Hollie Doyle's mount, English Spirit in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

ENGLISH SPIRIT ended an 8-race losing spell with a course and distance success here last time out a couple of months ago, taking his career A/W record to 3 wins from 4 places from 17. Only up 2lbs for the win

LUNARSCAPE is noted as being a fast finisher and now ears cheekpieces for the first time in what will be just her second outing for her current yard, having finished third here over a furlong longer just over a fortnight ago. Has placed 223 in her last three, but is winless in nine.

SURPRISE PICTURE has won over both 6f and 7f at this track, but is winless in seven since his 7f success back in September. Now 2lbs lower than that win, so could be dangerous.

ADMIRAL NELSON won at Newcastle (7f) two starts/a month ago after six indifferent defeats, but failed to back up that return to form when only 8th of 10 at Southwell three days before Christmas. Now goes beyond a mile for the first time in his 26-race career.

PEMBROKESHIRE won over 7f at Musselburgh in mid-October, but has only finished 7th of 10 and then 6th of 7 in two runs over a mile on Newcastle's tapeta track since. He has failed to make the frame in any of seven A/W runs to date and others look a better option.

MR BOSON is a five-race maiden (2 x flat, 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced since May of last year, when just 11th of 13, beaten by over 12 lengths a 1m handicap at Windsor. probably best left watched here.

ASGARD'S CAPTAIN is the other LTO winner in the pack having produced a career-best run to land a 7-runner handicap over 1m1f at Musselburgh on quick ground last August. He's up 14lbs here, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, this might be best left as a watching brief on his first run for new handler Dylan Cunha.

KINGWELL is our other C&D winner in the field, having scored here at Class 6 11 months ago. He's up in class today and hasn't won any of six since that C&D triumph last February. Was fourth of six over track and trip last time out and a similar run won't be good enough here either.

Past relevant form courtesy of Instant Expert looks like this...

...which paints a pretty bleak picture, doesn't it? I know these are Class 5/6 runners, so i wasn't expecting much, but featured horse English Spirit aside, only Surprise Picture makes much appeal, especially at 2lbs below his last win. I think we're going to need the place stats...

These do at least suggest that the field are pretty familiar with the task in hand and whilst they've not been prolific winners, they have made the frame on several occasions. My usual reaction to a graphic like the above would be to remove Admiral Nelson, Pembrokeshire and Mr Boson from my deliberations.

In previous past races, it seems that a higher draw has been more beneficial than a low one...

...which is great news for English Spirit but another blow for Admiral Nelson, who didn't fare too well on Instant Expert. If we then look at how those 300+ races above were won...

...we see that those setting the tempo do very well, but the stalking prominent runners have an even better record of picking the leaders off late on, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...suggest that Kingwell will be that pace-maker who could then become vulnerable to the likes of English Spirit and Mr Boson, whilst we should also remember that Lunarscape was noted as a fast finisher. She might well be left with too much work to do, but if things drop right, she'll be aiming for the places late on.

Summary

English Spirit has a great record here at Wolverhampton, as documented by the H4C report, he comes here off the back of a win and was the eye-catcher on Instant Expert. He seems to have the plum high draw and the ideal prominent running style to win here again and I'm struggling to see who might beat him. he currently (4.50pm) trades at 3/1, which is actually a little longer than I thought he might be, so that's good news.

Asgards Captain is the 5/2 fav and that seems a bit short for a horse making a yard debut up 14lb, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, so he's not for me. I suspect Lunarscape will go well here, having made the frame in each of her last three. She finishes well but might come from too far off the pace. She's good for the frame, I think but probably not the win.

I generally want 8/1 or bigger before I place an E/W bet and with that in mind, if i was to have one here, Surprise Picture might fit the bill, now that he's 2lbs lower than his last win here, but I wouldn't be digging too deep into my pockets for that one.

I'm at a family event from 2pm Friday, so no column for Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. Back Sunday with a preview of a race for Monday, so have a great weekend.

Racing Insight, Friday 05/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers...

...and I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.02 Southwell
  • 1.12 Southwell
  • 1.55 Musselburgh
  • 3.55 Ludlow

...and the highest-rated of those six races above is the 1.12 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

Only Haku won last time out, although Heathen was a runner-up having won two starts ago, as did Chase The Dollar. Nolton Cross & Rhythmic Intent are other LTO runners-up and Ensured finished third on his last run, albeit some 937 days ago in mid-June 2021! Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Buxted Too and Achnamara all coming here on losing runs of seven or more races (9, 14, 8 & 10 to be exact!). Haku's LTO win was by a head over the re-opposing Nolton Cross and the runner-up is now 1lb better off.

We know Ensured has been off track for nearly 31 months, but the remainder have all raced fairly recently. Valsad has had 80 days rest and Night Bear returns from a 53-day break, but the others have all raced in the last four weeks.

Rhythmic Intent is noted as a fast finisher and he, Ensured (now making a second handicap appearance) and Achnamara are the only runners not moving class today, as Midnight Lion last raced in a Listed hurdle and both Heathen & Valsad (yard debut for Jamie Osborne today) are dropping down from Class 2.

We then have five runners; Nolton Cross, Haku (in first-time cheekpieces), Buxted Too, Chase The Dollar and Night Bear all stepping up a level from Class 4.

As for previous successes, Ensured, Midnight Lion and Chase The Dollar have yet to win over this trip, but the latter has won here over 1m6f, whilst the other four previous course winners; Valsad, Nolton Cross, Heathen and Night Bear have all won over course and distance, as seen below in Instant Expert...

...where despite being winless in nine starts, Nolton Cross is the immediate eyecatcher and he comes here off the back of a narrow defeat. Most of the top six in the weights are proven at this going, course and trip and I suspect the winner and placers are amongst that half dozen. Five of the six are drawn in stalls 1-7 with only Nolton Cross detached from the group out in 11 of 11, but that shouldn't be an issue as there's no real discernible draw bias here...

...not that I expect one over a mile and a half. There are plenty of reasons not to win but the draw over such a trip shouldn't be one of them and nor should race tactics, according to our pace analyser...

Yes, front runners have been a bit of a target, but they're probably only one winner shy of parity with the other three running styles. On our course profile, jockey David Probert says that this is a fair track, suggesting that the better horses win more often irrespective of pace and/or draw.

Summary

If pace and draw aren't as important here as they normally are, then it's a case of finding those in form and best suited to the task. Instant Expert has led me to believe the top six in the weights is where I should focus, but Buxted Too hasn't run well for 18 months now and Valsad looks too high in the weights at just one pound lower than his last two results of 7th of 12 and last of seven. I'll discount this pair now, leaving me with just four to consider ie Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Haku and Heathen.

Of this four, there's probably not much between them. Haku narrowly beat Nolton Cross last time out, but I fancy those placings to be reversed with the latter now better off at the weights. Heathen has been running really well of late, so I suppose it's Rhythmic Intent who misses out. He did run well but that's the nearest he has got to winning in the last 27 months and whilst he could go well here again, he's the odd one out for me.

Of my final trio, there's not a great deal to choose between them, but if pushed the 11/2 offered about Nolton Cross at 5.20pm makes most sense.