Tag Archive for: Horses for Courses

Racing Insights, Friday 11/08/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded an interesting pair of qualifiers for this Friday...

...whilst I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Tipperary
  • 5.10 Thirsk
  • 5.40 Haydock
  • 6.15 Haydock
  • 7.15 Wexford

...and I think I'll have a look at Equiano Springs from the H4C) report in the 8.20 Newmarket. He has won 4 of 6 races over 6f on the Rowley course and is 2 from 2 over this course and distance which is a straight 6f on the July course. This Class 4 race has eleven runners aged 3 and over and they'll be racing on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this could be a shootout between the oldest runner, top weight and featured horse Equiano Springs and the bottom weight 3yo filly Lady Dreamer, but let's see.

Golden Duke and Equiano Springs both won last time out with the latter scoring here over track and trip at this class. Champagne Sarah is 112 in her last three and all bar Rathbone, Tolstoy and Dashing Dick have won at least one of their four outings, but this trio have lost their last 13, 18 and 16 races respectively and that alone is enough for me to say no, thank you!

Of the eight that remain, Prospering and fast-finisher Distinguished Lady both drop down a class for a race that will be the latter's debut for Darryll Holland, having left Alice Haynes' yard in the last month. LTO winner Golden Duke goes the other way and steps up from Class 5.

Ice Cool Harry makes just a second handicap appearance, as does Lady Dreamer and as 3 yr olds they receive a useful 4lbs weight allowance, as do Distinguished Lady, Champagne Sarah (first-time cheekpieces here) and Prospering.

The entire field have raced in the last six weeks already, but all eight under consideration have been rested for at least a fortnight. Equiano Springs is 2 from 2 over 6f on the July course and he's the only previous course winner, but all of his rivals bar Flying Secret have at least one win over today's trip.

Equiano Springs, as you'd expect, dominates Instant Expert...

...but there are some good shout on place form from the likes of Distinguished Lady, Golden Duke and Lady Dreamer...

...and at this stage, I'd expect them to be the biggest danger to the top weight runner, Equiano Springs, whose berthing in stall 2 looks quite favourable, according to our Draw Analyser...

...although there's not a huge deal in it and it's likely to be the pace approach that settles this one...

...with the pace stats and the pace/draw heatmap suggesting that if Equiano is up with the pace, he stands a great chance here yet again...

...so if he's averaging around 3.00 or even better, then he's surely the one to beat...

Summary

Featured horse Equiano Springs has to be the one to beat here and having gone through the analysis above, the only surprise to me is that he can be backed at 4/1. The tissues range from 7/2 to 9/2, so 4's is about right, although I see him as a 3/1 or even shorter bet, so I'm on.

Lady Dreamer is 6/1 second favourite and she's probably right to be there, but I think Champagne Sarah is very interesting at an eachway-backable 8/1. The pace might do away with Distinguished Lady's chances, but if the race falls apart then her 14/1 odds might begin to look very big indeed.

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 28/07/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including Challet, whose record at York over the last couple of years reads 113337.

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.55 Thirsk
  • 5.00 York
  • 5.22 Cork
  • 5.57 Cork

I'm not too enthused by either H4C race nor the free list, but with the recent poor weather affecting the going across the country, I think I'll look for a race where trip and going are at the end of the spectrum, so let's try the 4.45 Ascot, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground, that should be better in places...

Glamorous Breeze and Cruise both won last time out and both are two from three, although the former fared better than the latter on their penultimate runs and she also drops in class here, as do Lil Guff, Cuban Breeze and Woolhampton, but bottom weight Sarah's Verse is up a level here. Cuban Breeze is winless for almost a year now, losing 17 on the bounce, but has made the frame in 5 of her last six.

There's nothing new/different to report on this field and all of them have had a run in the last month, with Cuban Breeze turned back out just a week after finishing as runner-up at Newmarket. She's the only one of this bunch to have already won here at Ascot, having scored over course and distance just over a year ago off a mark 3lbs lower than today. Only Origintrail, Woolhampton and Holy Fire have yet to win over this minimum distance.

Four of the field have previously tackled soft ground, with two going on to win and four of these runners have won at this grade before, with only Holy Fire yet to run at Class 4 on turf, according to Instant Expert...

Lil Guff and Sarah's Verse don't seem to mind the soft ground, but most of Cuban Breeze's best form has been on Good to Firm ground (as it normally is for this meeting!) or on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Glamorous Breeze has consistently made the frame at both class (8 from 13) and trip (17 from 27) and she has 11 top 3 finishes from 13 races over 5f at Class 4.

We don't have much data for similar past contests here at Ascot, so I've tweaked the parameters slightly to try to see if the draw might affect Glamorous Breeze's chances out in stall 8 of 8...

...but I don't think the draw will be a deciding factor. Yeah, Cuban Breeze will be grateful to have got stall 1, which has produced a freakishly large number of winners, probably due to having the rail there to keep them straight, but aside from that, there doesn't seem to be a huge bias. Cuban Breeze hasn't won for some time, but makes the frame pretty often and that consistency allied to the 'plum' draw will make her popular and I suspect that, based on her last few outings, she's likely to be up with the pace, whilst Sarah's Verse will have to come flying late on, if she's to win here...

The pace stats here, however, suggest that coming from the back wouldn't be the best move and that those furthest forward would have the best chance...

Summary

On the face of it, Cuban Breeze should be the one to beat. She has been running consistently well of late, seems to have the best of the draw and is likely to be up with the pace. Sadly, as the one to beat, she seems to do just that ie get beat! She's on a 17-race losing streak and is still only 2lbs lower than her last win and runs off the same mark as her last four runs/losses, so I'm now expecting it to be another 'close, but no cigar' run for her.

She's good for the frame and at 13/2 with Hills at 3.15pm, could be one for a place/EW bet, but for the win I prefer Glamorous Breeze for her consistency at this class/trip and she comes here in great form and I think she can land her third win in four starts. She's currently 9/2 which is about right, I'd say and I'd guess the 1-2-3 would be completed by Woolhampton or Lil Guff. Neither are long enough at 11/2 for me to go E/W and if pushed, I prefer the latter of the two.

As for our 4/1 favourite Cruise, her four races on turf have ended 4686 and I'd rather back her the next time she's on the tapeta.



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Racing Insights, Friday 21/07/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive but have still produced a trio of qualifiers...

...with Corinthia Knight of immediate interest. Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.10 Newbury
  • 5.55 Hamilton
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 7.30 Newmarket

And I think I'll turn to the highest class/most valuable race from the free list, which is the 4.10 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the 3pm Hills' 11/4 joint favourites, Spring Fever and Flower of Dubai, but that any of their rivals, bar Tashi (who looks weak), could be contenders for the places, so let's dive in...

Night Sparkle and Spring Fever both won last time out and have won two of their last three outings, whilst Flash Bardot also won LTO and is two from four. Flower of Dubai is two from five and only Tashi is winless in more than seven races, having now lost her ,last twelve in a run stretching back over two years. She has won just once in twenty-three attempts and I'm already saying that she's not for me here despite wearing a hood for the first time. It would have to have magical powers, I think!

Secret Shadow and Flower of Dubai both drop down a class and the latter will fancy her chances after only going down by a length at Haydock last time out. Spring Fever, Divina Grace and Alba Longa are, however, up one class, whilst Flash Bardot's win last week was at Class 5.

That was only last Thursday and she's turned back out quickest of these nine. Most of her rivals have raced in the last six weeks or so, but Secret Shadow has been rested for three months.

She is, however, the only previous course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won here before (mind you, Haseefah's run here in December 2021 is the only other appearance by any of the field) and only top weight Night Sparkle has scored over a similar trip.

Three of the field have already won on good ground and three have won at this grade, according to Instant Expert...

...which sadly doesn't carry as much data as I generally hope for. It does, however, highlight the wretched form of Tashi and suggests that Haseefah might struggle in this grade. It also points out that both Night Sparkle and Spring Fever are now rated 10lbs higher than their last wins, whilst both Flash Bardot and Alba Longa are carrying considerably more weight than when last victorious.

The place stats don't shed too much more light on this field...

...but they do suggest that Divina Grace likes the good ground better than her 0 from 3 record might imply, whilst Hassefah's form at this level isn't as bad as it first seemed and whilst it's almost a year since Secret Shadow last won, she has been running in much better races than this and looks the pick of the pack purely on the data above.

I'm normally fairly dismissive of the effects of the draw over trips of 1m2f and beyond as I believe that there's ample time to undo a 'bad' draw and here at Newbury in races of 1.5 miles and further, it looks like I'd be right in those assertion...

The apparent success of the lower drawn horses is a massively skewed by a freak number of winners from stall 2 and based on that data above, there's only stall 1 that has struggled to make the frame, which is further good news for the jt favs, who will emerge from stalls 5 & 6. They're drawn side-by-side but if they're going to be the first two home, they're likely to be a fair distance apart during the actual race itself, as I'd expect Spring Fever to be up with the pace, whilst Flower of Dubai tends to be produced quite late, if recent outings are anything to go by...

If we then revisit those races used for the draw stats, we can see that those setting the pace here often become a target for the chasing pack to aim for and they do generally catch and beat those leaders...

...which must be advantage Flower of Dubai in that battle of the jt favs.

Summary

I do think that the 3pm joint favs Flower of Dubai and Spring Fever are the best two runners in the race, but the hold-up approach by the former tips the scales in her favour for me, so I'm with Flower of Dubai for this one. Bet365 have opened up since I wrote the pre-amble and go 7/2 about Flower of Dubai and whilst that's not over generous, it's at least fair.

Spring Fever should still be good enough to hold on and make the frame, but who joins them? Well, I could make a case for several, but on an ability vs risk vs reward/value basis, I think I'd take a small E/W punt on Secret Shadow, who looks far too long at 20/1 with Bet365. Hills go 11/1 about her and that's more realistic in my opinion.



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Racing Insights, Friday 14/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just two qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 York
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.35 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Chepstow

...and whilst the field is a little larger than I'm normally comfortable with, it makes sense to tie the daily feature in with the free races, so we're going to have a look at Final Watch and the 4.45 Newmarket, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

FORM : Amber Island won last time out, as did Under The Twilight, whilst Final Watch, Razeyna and Waiting All Night all had top 3 finishes. Street Kid, Maxi Boy, Persuasion and Waiting All Night have failed to win any of their last 8, 12, 17 and 11 races respectively.

CLASS : Tiger Crusade and Street Kid both drop down a class, but Amber Island, Maxi Boy, Love de Vega (on yard debut here) and Waiting All Night are all up a level, whilst Under The Twilight is up two classes after his LTO win.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORD : All bar Maxi Boy and Waiting All Night have won over 7f and we've two course winners in the shape of Final Watch and Love de Vega who have both scored over course and distance.

LAST RAN : Love de Vega might well be in need of a run after nearly nine months off the track, whilst all his rivals have been out in the last two months. Waiting All Night ran as recently as last Friday!

Our two LTO winners are the only females in the races and we've a pair of 3 yr olds, Harry Magnus & Waiting All Night, at the foot of the weights thanks partly to their 8lbs weight for age allowance.

Instant Expert identifies nine past good to firm winners and seven who scored at least once at Class 3 on turf. The graphic below also suggests that this trip hasn't been an enjoyable one for the likes of Lyndon B (1 from 12) and Persuasion (2 from 18) and although Final Watch is on the horses for courses list, he has struggled at Class 3, winning just once in seven starts...

Tiger Crusade is now 11lbs higher than his last Flat win, but he did score at Lingfield on the A/W at 4lbs higher than today, just three starts ago, but Under The twilight really is 12lbs higher than when she won almost four weeks ago! Persuasion is the one dropping down the weights, but has run well in defeat off marks of 86-89 in recent outings.

As you're probably aware, I'm not always sure about the effects of the draw over a straight race and on the face of past similar contests...

...you'd say that the lower you were drawn the better, but the PRB3 stats say that the centre of the stalls is where you want to be...

...whilst I can't help but feel that the LOW / MID /HIGH stats are a bit skewed by an unusually large number of winners from stall 1...

...so I'll park the draw for now and file it as unresolved today, but what I am pretty sure about is that you don't want to be backing hold-up horses here in a competitive big-field contest on quick ground...

...and if you can identify a front-runner, you could be quids in, Thankfully, we can quickly make an assumption as to how the race might progress by looking at the field's last few runs and they look like this...

...which is great news for me, because I liked Mister Bluebird before I started writing the piece! Harry Magnus has that supposedly plum draw in stall 1, but won't get to take advantage of it and he'll have a wall of runners ahead of him. The other 'pace' runner in the field is Love de Vega, but he somewhat lost his way last season and hasn't been seen since last year. And more on pace, this is how they might break out in draw order...

Summary

Mister Bluebird is likely to lead and I much prefer him as my front-runner than the rusty Love de Vega. Mister Bluebird isn't drawn far from the centre, which PRB3 says is the spot to be in and he has gone well in all four starts this season. He might not be an obvious pick as a winner, but with most bookies paying four places (Sky go 5, as ever!), I'd be happy with a 9/1 E/W punt here.

Prior to doing the analysis, I liked Lyndon B and H4C horse Final Watch as possible E/W candidates too, but I fear the pace will kill their chances here, so I'm going to put them in the "every chance but not carrying my money" category. Street Kid, however, might outrun his 18/1 price ticket and make the frame if not ridden too aggressively this time, he's down in class and trip and has a better jockey on board than last time, so he could be involved. Just small stakes, though!



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Racing Insights, Friday 07/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.55 Doncaster
  • 3.40 Sandown
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 5.55 Bellewstown
  • 6.40 Haydock
  • 8.10 Beverley

...where the second of the two Sandown contests is a competitive-looking, small field, Class 1 contest, so let's look at the 4.15 Sandown, a 5-runner, Listed flat race for horses aged 3 and above. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the field...

All five actually raced against each other last time out and that was in the Listed Wolferton Stakes over this trip at Royal Ascot seventeen days ago, where Saga was well clear of the others...

...beating Notre Belle Bete and Certain Lad by 7.5 and 8.5 lengths respectively with Poker Face and Savvy Victory a further 2 and 17.25 lengths back. That doesn't however tell the full story as only Saga really ran his own race and benefited from the three lowest drawn runners finishing in the first five home. Certain Lad and Savvy Victory were both hampered, although odds of 50/1 and 100/1 suggest they were never winning.

So, none won last time out, but Notre Belle Bete won three starts ago, Poker Face won the first three of his six outings to date and Savvy Victory won seven starts ago. Certain Lad last won eight races back and Saga's sole win from eleven efforts came on just his third appearance 22 months ago.

All five have, however, won over this trip, but none have raced here at Sandown before and they all raced in this grade 17 days ago!

CERTAIN LAD won a Group 3 contest on good to soft ground at York in August 2020 and ended his 2022 campaign with a decent third of ten in a Haydock Group 3 event. he returned to action in May of this year after 279 days off to run a creditable 3rd in a soft ground Class 2 handicap at Chester prior to his run in the Wolferton, where he was badly hampered.

NOTRE BELLE BETE started 2022 with a sequence reading 11913, but then lost his way under increasing weight before the addition of cheekpieces in November seemed to spark a renaissance and prior to the Wolferton LTO, his form in the cheekpieces read 22313, including winning a valuable Class 2 handicap at Newcastle on Good Friday. Transferring that form to the turf would be useful, but he is 0 from 15 on the Flat as opposed to 4 from 8 on the A/W.

POKER FACE is a lightly-raced (6 starts) 4 yr old who won his first three outings (2 x C5 & 1 @ C4), before a six month break last winter. He returned to action in April and was only headed inside the final furlong of the Gr3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket, eventually finishing second. He faded late on next time out too, when trying to win a Gr2 at Chester from the front and has only raced at Royal Ascot since.

SAGA has made the frame in five of his ten Flat runs, but has only won a 7f, Class 3 maiden so far. That said, he only just failed (by a head) to win the 30-runner Britannia Stakes at Ascot a year ago and went down by the same margin at Newmarket in another Class 2 heritage handicap two starts ago. that was his first run for seven months and then ran really well at Ascot last time out, taking advantage of the low draw.

SAVVY VICTORY won over today's trip last April & August and was a length and a half clear of Certain Lad at Chester in May, when finishing second of nine at Chester, although Certain Lad was racing for the first time in over nine months. He was badly hampered in the Wolferton last time out, but has no real Class 1 form and arguably the weakest here on paper.

There is a suggestion that the course might dry out a little so for our view of Instant Expert, I've included form for both Good ground as well as Good/Good to Soft...

Notre Belle Bete's figures were always going to be poor, as he's 0 from 15 on turf, so we'll check the place stats shortly and the field's lack of success at Class 1 confirms my belief that is only Class 2 standard. Three of these have at least won on good to soft and Savvy Victory probably won't want it to dry out. Those place stats I mentioned look like this...

...suggesting that most of them will be happy if the groundstaff continue to water the track as they have been doing and based on the above, Poker Face probably edges the race for a place. As you'd expect with such a small field, there's no real advantage to be gained from the draw...

...although those drawn higher tend to make the frame more often and the PRB3 data points towards the higher draw again...

...so that's more good news for Poker Face. The pace breakdown of those races above show that hold-up horses are at a disadvantage here...

...with those racing further forward more likely to fill the frame. Sadly there's not much early pace in this field based on recent evidence and it might well be left to Poker Face to set the fractions again, as he did at Chester recently...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map seems to everyone a chance here, although Saga looks worst off...

Summary

I expect a cagey affair here with no real pace angle and a look at the market at 4pm had Saga as the 5/4 favourite some way clear of next best Poker Face at 11/4. Poker Face is the one that has ticked most boxes for me during my analysis and I'd much rather back a horse at 11/4 who has two decent group runs behind him than a 5/4 fav who is 1 from 10 on the turf. Obviously, if this pans out like the Wolferton did, then it's Saga's race to win/lose, but I'd rather side with Poker Face here.



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Racing Insights, Friday 30/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded a couple of qualifiers...

...and this report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 6.05 Curragh
  • 7.00 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Newcastle
  • 7.25 Chester
  • 7.50 Curragh

...and of the four 'free' UK races and the two on my H4C list, the highest-rated is the 8.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (+25yds for rails) on ground that is currently good to soft...

The early (3.30pm) show from the bookies suggested a three horse race between Peace Man (2/1 fav), Like A Tiger (4/1) and First Sight (also 4/1) with no other runner shorter than 17/2. The bookies may well be right, but there's also the chance of an E/W bet from the challengers, so let's dive in...

Peace Man and First Sight both come here on a hat-trick, so at least one winning run will end here. None of the others managed to win last time out, but all bar Cap Francais have won won at least one of their last five runs.

Plenty of these are class movers today with only four (Gloucestershire, hat-trick seeking Peace Man, Queen of the Skies and bottom weight The Parent) having raced at Class 3 last time around. Of the other eight, three (Turntable, Encourageable & Cap Francais) drop down from Class 2, whilst Like A Tiger and Regal Empire were both last seen in Listed company. Two then step up in class here; Inigo Jones and hat-trick seeker First Sight, who move from Class 4 and 5 respectively.

Not only is First Sight up two classes here, this will be his turf debut after winning two from three on the A/W and this is his handicap debut. It's a second handicap run for Queen of the Skies and Like A Tiger, whilst Inigo Jones runs for Alice Haynes for the first time since leaving Jamie Osborne. Cap Francais aims to get off the cold list by wearing first time cheekpieces.

First Sight returns from 22 weeks off the track and both Gloucestershire and Inigo Jones also come off 100+ day breaks, but the rest of the field have been seen in the last eight weeks; The Parent raced as recently as the 17th of this month.

Turntable is the only previous course winner, having scored over a mile here back in July 2020, but has won over 1m, 1m1f and today's 1m2f trip on the Rowley course! Peace Man, Queen of the Skies, Inigo Jones, Like A Tiger and First Sight have all also won over a similar trip before now.

We have four three year olds in the race here and they're the four lowest weights (ie last four on the card, thanks to a very useful 12lbs weight for age allowance which moves Like A Tiger from 1lb shy of top weight all the way down to 8th in the weights, which could be very handy for him, First Sight, Regal Empire and The Parent.

It is, of course, First Sight's turf debut, so he has no stats to show on the following Instant Expert graphic, which also highlights three previous winners on good to soft ground and five Class 3 winners as well as the course/distance victors mentioned earlier...

There's not actually that much data to work from here and First Sight's lack of Flat activity is probably no worse than having tried and failed. He runs for the in-form (as always!) Charlie Appleby who has a great record here at HQ, so there's no doubt that the horse will have been well prepped. I'm not taking much from that graphic above, other than making a note of Cap Francais' poor record at the trip, but I will just have a quick look at place stats before moving on to the draw...

Cap Francais hasn't been that unlucky over the trip either and The Parent looks better suited at class 4, where he finished 313, as opposed to his three runs ending 463 at this level (3rd of 7 LTO). Turntable has fared better over 1m and 1m1f, but his record here at Newmarket is excellent and he really gets the good to soft ground. He's drawn quite high in 8 of the 11 stalls and this track/trip has favoured those drawn little lower in the past...

You'll notice that I've had to tweak a criteria a little to give myself some data to work with, but the stall by stall numbers seem to back up the graphic above...

...but whilst you'd want stalls 1 to 5 (good for the two jt 2nd favs), there's not a huge bias at play here, especially on the place stats and as is often the case in races beyond a mile the pace of the contest becomes more of a key factor and those races above have favoured those setting the fractions...

...which, based on the field's recent efforts, would appear to be more advantageous to Peace Man that for example Cap Francais...

Summary

Sadly I concur with the bookies and Peace Man is the one to beat here. he ticks the box on form, won at this grade LTO, gets the trip and is likely to lead. Stall 9 isn't ideal, but if you're good enough, you're good enough. He was still 2/1 with Hills at 4.40pm, when I checked back and that was the Oddschecker tissue price, so I suppose that's fair.

The two 4/1 shots Like A Tiger and First Sight will need their 12lb weight allowance to stay competitive here, as I'm not sure they're as good as the fav and one or both might well make the frame. I'm not sure they would without the allowance and if one/both falter, I'd probably side with bottom weight and Frankel-offspring The Parent to take advantage as my E/W possible at 17/2. Turntable would need to up his game here, but that's not beyond the realms of possibility and for those brave enough to back him, 16/1 could be a great price, especially with some firms paying four places.

I apologise for the predictable outcome, but sometimes you have to agree with the bookies!

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 23/06/23

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Apologies for a lack of a column from me yesterday, I was ultimately defeated by technology, logistics and time.

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have, sadly, produced no qualifiers, but our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.45 Redcar
  • 6.40 Musselburgh
  • 7.05 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Down Royal
  • 7.45 Down Royal

...from which the first on the list is clearly the pick, but Matt's team of assembled experts are previewing elsewhere on the site, so this humble little column will turn its attention to Flat Racing HQ for the 7.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to firm ground...

Top weight Greysful Storm and the fast finishing Never Ending both won last time out, but the former does now step up a class, as do Golspie and The Jackler, whilst bottom weight Golden Maverick is up two classes.

We've quite a few that are unxposed in handicaps with this being a handicap debut for Golspie, Never Ending and The Jackler, whilst it's only Feud's second attempt.

He's also been off the track the longest, but a 7-week break shouldn't be the reason he can't win here and the rest of the field have all had near enough a fortnight or more to recover from their last run.

The top two on the card are the only ones to have won at this trip and none of the nine have won here before, as shown on Instant Expert, which also shows 3 winners on similar ground conditions and four Class 4 winners...

There's not much data there for us to build up a clear enough picture, so we should switch to the place stats...

...which lead me to suggest that Feud, The Jackler and Golden Maverick won't be featuring much in my thoughts from this point forward. Removing those three from the equation also takes away the two widest drawn runners, which might not be a bad thing based on these draw stats...

...that point to the first four stalls being the preferred place to run from...

...which would be good news for Mighty River, Never Ending and Golspie who occupy the first three stalls. The pace stats for those same races then go on to say that the chances of winning this race increase the further forward a horse runs and that those racing prominently actually make the frame slightly more often than leaders. Based on the field's last few runs...

...I'd expect Mighty River to be bang up with the pace as he shoots out of stall 1 and this pace/draw combination represents the best chance for horses to win here...

Summary

Low draw and fast starts are the order of the day here and that's Mighty River. He's in good nick (2nd over this trip on the Rowley LTO) and has won at the trip, so he'd be the one to beat for me. If he does get out quickly, I suspect he might well drag Never Ending along with him, whilst further down the draw order, the in-form Island Star could very well have something to say in the outcome.

No odds available at 3.10pm on Thursday, so I'll revisit later when I check the price of possible E/W runner John Chard VC who has led in a couple of his last four outings.

Mighty River and John Chard VC opened up at 7/1 and 12/1 respectively, which were decent enough prices IMO.



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Racing Insights, Friday 16/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 York
  • 6.10 Fontwell
  • 6.15 Fairyhouse
  • 6.35 Cork
  • 7.45 Cork
  • 7.50 Goodwood

...and we'll head to the Knavesmire for the first from the 'free' list, the 1.50 York, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good to firm ground, that will be a little slower in places and here's how they'll line up...

Steady improver Westernesse was a winner last time out, as were Menelaus and Showmedemoney, but Jean Baptiste, Aqwaam, Highwaygrey and Poet's Dawn are winless in 10, 6, 7 & 5 races respectively.

Plenty of class movers here, as only Pledge of Honour & raced at Class 4 LTO. Highwaygrey drops down two classes here, whilst Jean Baptiste, Solanna & Poet's Dream are all down 1. Our trio of LTO winners, Westernesse, Menelaus & Showmedemoney are all up a level, as is bottom weight Dougies Dream despite three poor efforts at Class 5 in the last couple of months.

Menelaus wears a visor for the first time today and we should have no rustiness issues here, with all ten having raced in the last five weeks, with Menelaus seen most recently when winning at Thirsk 11 days ago, getting off the mark at the tenth time of asking.

That win was over a mile, so he's one of just four (inc Westernesse, Aqwaam & Dougies Dream) yet to win over a similar trip to this one, whilst Poet's Dawn is the only previous York winner, albeit over 1m1f three years ago!

That win is shown below on a fairly sad-looking Instant Expert graphic that contains many warning bells...

...and those warnings are..

  • GOING - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • CLASS - Pledge of Honour & Aqwaam (note that Jean Baptiste has won a Class 2 and that Pledge of Honour, Highwaygrey & Poet's Dream have won at Class 3)
  • COURSE - Despite his win here, Poet's Dawn is just 1 from 14 at this venue and that's not good enough
  • DISTANCE - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • WEIGHT - Solanna is 10lbs higher than his win two starts ago and 15lbs higher than his win three starts ago, but he is down in class and by 2lbs from LTO.

Based on everything to this point, I going to omit Jean Baptiste, Poet's Dawn and Dougies Dream before I even look at the field's place stats...

...where Aqwaam looks weak at Class 4 and Highwaygrey looks a steady performer, but there's nothing here that says back or dismiss to any of them yet.

Our Draw Analyser says that past similar races ie

...don't actually show a massive draw bias and they really shouldn't over 10.5 furlongs if truth be told, but stalls 3 & 7 have fared (abnormally?) well...

...so that might offer a little encouragement to the likes of Solanna and Aqwaam, whilst running those 80 races above through our Pace Analyser, it would seem that the best approach here would be to get tucked in behind the leader(s) in a prominent position...

Hold-up types fare next best to prominent runners, but leaders have struggled to see the job out to a satisfactory conclusion, which might not bode well for likely front-runner Showmedemoney...

...whilst Highwaygrey and Pledge of Honour would appear to be the ones being waited with.

Summary

The one ticking most boxes for me so far is Westernesse, whose form of 2223231 over the last year has shown steady improvement, culminating in a first win at Pontefract recently. the way he stayed on that day suggests that the extra furlong or so here should be right up his street and although he's the early (only bet365 were open at 4.15) 3/1 favourite, he should be the one to beat here, especially as the second and third from his win have both won at Class 4 since and although he's up 3lbs, his jockey Mark Winn (in decent nick too at 7 from 24 over the last fortnight) takes the same amount off, so it's Westernesse for me today.

As for the placers, you can make a case for most of  the six of them and I think Menelaus is probably the 'best of the rest' and handy for forecast purposes, but definitely too short for me to go E/W at 7/2! E/W options for me here would probably end up being runners like Pledge of Honour and/or Highwaygrey at 9's and 12's respectively.

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 09/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for this Friday...

...but thankfully I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 4.55 Bath
  • 6.15 Clonmel
  • 7.35 Goodwood
  • 8.10 Goodwood

...and the first of those 'free' races looks the best standard on paper, so we're off to Lincolnshire for the 2.50 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m5½f (after a +216 yard rail adjustment!) on good ground...

As ever, I'll approach this in the same way I taught my children to solve maths problems : list the details you already know! And for us that means taking the data presented to us on the racecard, starting with FORM...

...where King Alexander comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst Mullinaree completed that feat last time out and now seeks a fourth win on the bounce. Elsewhere Hang In There has 5 wins and two runner-up finishes from his last nine runs and only three (Luttrell Lad, Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto) are on long losing runs, having lost their last 11, 7 and 16 races respectively!

The next thing I consider is CLASS and only four of these (Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One & Luttrell Lad) raced at this Class 2 level LTO witht he first named a runner-up at Aintree in a better race than this. Of the other seven, only The Wounded Knee drops in class, after being pulled up in a Grade 2 Novice hurdle at Kelso three months ago, whilst Celestial Horizon, Didtheyleaveuoutto and Sacre Coeur all step up from Class 3 and with Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto both being on lengthy losing runs, it's tough to see the step up in class helping them here. Mind you, it could be worse, because King Alexander, Mullinaree and Runswick Bay are all up two classes, but at least that first pair are in good form.

At this point, I then like to check if there's ANYTHING NEW going on with the runners that might affect their performance and there's a fair bit here, as Impulsive One, The Wounded Knee and Sacre Coeur are all making debuts for their new yards and it'll be just the second handicap outing for The Wounded Knee, as it will be for King Alexander, who is 2 from 2 since a wind op, a fact that will hearten connections of Sacre Coeur and Runswick bay as those horses now run for the first time since their own surgeries. Slightly less invasive for Luttrell Lad, though, as he just has a first-time tongue tie in place.

COURSE/DISTANCE form is very important too and Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds and Luttrell Lad have all won won here before (in a 2m6½f chase, 2m5f hurdle and a 2m1f bumper respectively), whilst Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One, King Alexander and Runswick Bay have all won over a similar trip to this one.

And the last thing I tend to look at on the racecard is the number of DAYS SINCE LAST RUN, as we don't really want rusty horses coming off long layoffs or those turned back out too quickly and we thankfully have neither here. Sacre Coeur and The Wounded Knee have been rested for 99 and 97 days respectively, but that's not excessive, whilst all their rival have had at least a couple of weeks' rest to freshen up.

I would then turn to the excellent INSTANT EXPERT feature for some some more data and as you'll see below, some of these have got some decent NH numbers behind them and Sacre Coeur is the only one yet to win on good ground (her only win was on soft ground three starts ago). Five of this field have already won a Class 2 contest (six have actually won at Class 1!) and only Celestial Horizon has yet to score over a trip of 2m4f to 2m6f...

...and the traffic light system used above should be pretty self-explanatory, but the rating column might not. Essentially T =  today's official rating ie a horse's mark and L is the runner's last winning mark and the standout figure is that 21lb difference for The Wounded Knee, who won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth off a mark of 108 nine months ago, but is now rated at 129, which looks punitive to me. Didtheyleaveuoutto may have won twice at this grade, but a 20% strike rate isn't good and allied to his recent poor form and a 1in 7 record at similar trips, you'd be brave to back him here.

Based on everything I've put down so far, these are now the runners that I'd want to choose from...

...and I'd then focus on handicap hurdle form...

...and eliminate Runswick Bay from my list. The in-form pair of King Alexander and Mullinaree are untried at class/trip, as both step up in grade here and whilst they're definite contenders here, it's the top pair on the card catching the eye from Instant Expert. From here, we normally then look at the draw, the pace stats and how they work together, but there is no draw in an NH contest, of course, so let's head directly to the PACE data we hold under in our Pace Analyser tool...

...which says that similar races here in the past have been most beneficial to front-runners and that blindly backing known front-runners could turn a profit. Known hold-up types are generally to be avoided here and based off recent outings this wouldn't seem to apply to my 'final five'...

Summary

King Alexander, Mullinaree and Hang In There bring the best form to the table, but the first pair are both up two grades, whilst the latter has scored at both track and trip, albeit on different days! Hang In There also caught the eye on Instant Expert, along with Earlofthecotswolds and it is this pair who seem best suited by the pace profile required here. All of which suggests that Impulsive One is the most vulnerable of my five and that I prefer Hang In There and Earlofthecotswolds over the LTO winners King Alexander and Mullinaree.

Hang In There makes more appeal to me as the winner here based on recent form and the 6/1 offered by Hills at 4.45pm looks a bit big, so I'd take that. Earlofthecotswolds is 15/2, which is probably about right and is borderline E/W territory for me, but he has a great chance of making the frame and if I had to choose between King Alexander and Mullinaree, I'd probably side with the former, King Alexander, who is the early 11/4 fav. His win LTO was more impressive than Mullinaree's and the latter is now worse off at the weights. I'm leaving him out of my 1-2-3, but I reckon he won't be far away.

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 02/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 6.05 Stratford
  • 6.35 Stratford
  • 7.20 Tramore
  • 8.05 Stratford
  • 8.25 Catterick

...the best of which is clearly the Coronation Cup aka the 3.10 Epsom, a 5-runner, Group 1 flat contest for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a left handed mile and a half on good ground and here's the card...

Only five go to post and you could make a reasonable case for all of them, so let's have a quick look at them...

HURRICANE LANE won the Dante, the Irish Derby and the St Leger last season and won the Gr2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket four weeks ago. Loves good ground, has won a couple of times at this trip and is a major contender here.

POINT LONSDALE has won a pair of Gr3 and a pair of Gr2 contests but hasn't quite got his nose in front at Group 1. Steps up to 1m4f for the first time and whilst he is undoubtedly talented, I fear the ground might be too quick for him here on the faster side of good.

TUNNES won the German St Leger and a Munich Group 1 race last autumn and now makes a UK debut 40 days after finishing second in the Gr2 Carl Jaspers Preis at Cologne. This is tougher and he was beaten by more than 3 lengths last time out, despite going off at 9/10.

WESTOVER was third in the Derby here last year before going on to win the Irish version three weeks later. Hasn't been seen in UK/Ireland since flopping in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot last July, but was sixth in the Arc and ran a very good second behind Equinox in the Gr1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan ten weeks ago. Much will depend on which Westover turns up.

EMILY UPJOHN is the only female in the race and she too hasn't been seen for some time, as it's now 230 days since she landed the Gr1 Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot in October. She was unlucky not to win the Oaks here a year ago, going down by just a short head despite stumbling out of the stalls. Her 3lb allowance might be key, because she's a classy filly. Oh, and don't forget the Frankie factor!

Instant Expert only covers UK/Irish form, so we've nothing on Tunnes, but just look how good his rivals have performed under similar conditions...

All three course losers did make the frame and there's very little for me to pick apart here. The three to have tackled this trip have all actually done better over shorter and Point Lonsdale's best form is on soft (or worse) ground, so this might be a bit quick for him in the sunshine.

There's not a huge draw bias here, as you'd probably expect from a small field over a fairly long race...

...although those drawn higher do edge it on place results. Pace, however, is a different story...

Prominent runners fare best, suggesting that leaders get stalked and passed, whilst a hold-up approach is a definite no-no here on the Downs over this trip in a small field. That said, none of the four we have data for are hold-up horses, based on their last four outings...

...but those numbers suggest Point Lonsdale and Westover might fight it out and become vulnerable to being picked off by Hurricane Lane and Emily Upjohn.

Summary

I've disregarded Tunnes because I don't know a great deal about him and I don't think his run last time out was good enough to make him a likely winner here, so I'm down to the four I do have data about.

Point Lonsdale and Westover might do too much early on and become targets and I think the ground will be too quick for the former. Hurricane Lane's past achievements speak for themselves and Emily Upjohn is a really good filly and her 3lbs allowance will be more than useful here, so I'm taking Hurricane Lane to beat Emily Upjohn.

The bookies disagree and they've go Westover as the 9/4 fav, whilst my 1-2 are currently 4/1 and 3/1, but the market isn't always right!



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Racing Insights, Friday 26/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including the 6yr old mare Sarah's Verse, whose record at Bath over the last 25 months reads 11132220221!

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 7.15 Limerick
  • 8.25 Pontefract
  • 8.30 Curragh
  • 8.40 Worcester

...but I think I'll have a look at H4C horse Sarah's Verse in the 3.25 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left-handed 5½f on good to firm ground that is already firm in places and may well quicken up in the sun...

It's a reasonable-looking contest for a lowly Class 5 handicap, featuring two LTO winners in the shape of bottom-weight Redredrobin and Four Adaay. The former has two wins and a runner-up finish from her last five outings, as does top-weight Coup de Force, whilst featured horse Sarah's Verse, Starsong and Vaunted have all won one of their last five.

The latter makes a yard debut for John O'Shea and her 244 day absence since her last run is the longest of the nine runners. Hello Me has been away for 16 weeks and Hersilia for just over six months, but the other half dozen have all raced this month already.

Bottom-weight and LTO winner Redredrobin is up a class here, but escapes a penalty for her win last week (apprentices handicap), hilst both Yard debutant Vaunted and fast finisher Granary Queen both drop a class. Top weight Coup de Force is also noted as a fast finisher and she drops two classes after a defeat by just half a length at Class 3 three weeks ago.

Of Sarah's Verse's excellent Bath record, she is 111322022 over course and distance and none of her rivals have won over today's trip, although Granary Queen has won here at Bath over a mile whilst the returning Vaunted has scored over 5f here, albeit on debut 25 months ago.

Instant Expert then tells us that five of the seven to have raced on good to firm ground have won on it and that half a dozen of this field have won at Class 5 and that a different six have won over 5.5f to 6f...

Hello Me has also won at Class 3, whilst Coup de Force, Granary Queen, Hello Me and Four Adaay have all won at Class 4, but the latter would prefer slower ground or even the A/W although she has placed well on Good to Firm, as you'll see shortly. Granary Queen actually has a better record at Class 4 than Class 5, so I'm not concerned about her not being good enough here. Starsong and Redredrobin, however look like Class 6 horses on past form witht he former only really running well on the A/W.

Overall place form looks like this...

and taking flat races in isolation...

From those flat place settings, these are the ones that would interest me most...

...and strangely they're drawn at the extremes of the stalls in boxes 1, 2 3, 8 & 9, yet despite this not being a straight sprint, the bend doesn't seem to have made a huge draw bias...

...and I'd not be dismissing any of the nine runners purely on draw. What is, however, generally accepted/expected here at Bath is that the quicker you're away from the gates, the better, as those setting the pace tend to do best. This isn't just anecdotal, as expected we have the numbers from those race above to back this up...

...and here's how my shortlist have approached their last four contests...

Summary

I narrowed the field to five and decided that I wasn't too bothered about the draw. This placed more emphasis on pace and from recent efforts, it looks like Hello Me would be the pacemaker, but she can't be my winner here. She has won just 1 of 11 on turf with her best form coming on the A/W. She hasn't been seen for 16 weeks, so might need the run and hasn't won any of her last eleven races anywhere, since scoring at Newcastle in December 2021. She has only made the frame in one of those 11 defeats, so she's even vulnerable from a place perspective here.

Sarah's Verse has raced as a hold-up type of late and that's a concern, as is the fact that she's 5lbs higher than her last win here three starts ago. The hold-up tactics worked that day with the ground being soft, but as quick as it's likely to be here, she may have too much ground to make up. It should also be noted that 9 of her 11 Bath outings all came during April to September 2021 with her other two runs coming a year ago and seven weeks ago.

All of which almost brings me alphabetically to Coup de Force, Four Adaay and Granary Queen and I think they'd be my placers here today. Four Adaay won last time out, Coup de Force was a runner-up two classes higher and Granary Queen is a consistent placer (9 places from her last 11). All three have won at Class 4 and Granary Queen has won at this track before.

The manner of Coup de Force's runner-up finish LTO at Class 3 suggests that she's the one to beat and whilst it could be tight between the other two, I think I marginally prefer Granary Queen's consistency.

No odds available at 4.10pm on Thursday, so I'll need to revisit the market later, but I'd hope to see Coup de Force at around 10/3 or even 7/2. I suspect, the other pair will also be popular, rendering them too short for an E/W pick, but Sarah's Verse might be worth a small punt in case any of the trio flop.

Coup de Force opened at 10/3 with Bet365 at 4.30pm with Four Adaay the 7/2 second favourite. Granary Queen opened at 13/2.



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Racing Insights, Friday 19/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 3.15 Newbury
  • 5.00 Downpatrick
  • 5.26 Newbury
  • 7.40 Aintree
  • 7.45 Downpatrick

The first on that list is a Listed race, but full of inexperienced runners, so I'm heading to Liverpool for a decent looking stayers' contest. The 7.40 Aintree might not be of 'Grand National' proportions, but it's a competitive 11-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase (19 fences) over a left-handed 3m1f on good ground...

Bottom weight Go On Chez won last time out and Lounge LIzard comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst top weight Kinondo Kwetu has two third places finishes at Class 1 after winning six straight races. Only Java Point and Tim Pat are winless in five.

Both Kinondo Kwetu and Ruthless Article are down in class from runs in valuable Class 1 handicaps (the former was third here over course and distance off today's mark), whilst Topofthecotswolds and Saint Arvans both step up one class with Lounge Lizard and Go On Chez up two grades from wins at Class 4 last time out.

A few of these have had relatively recently wind surgery and Empire de Maulde, Kinondo Kwetu and Go On Chez now run for the first, second and fourth time respectively since their op.

Ruthless Article has won a 2m4f chase here at Aintree, whilst Kinondo Kwetu, Empire de Maulde and Go On Chez are former course and distance winners. Organdi, Hidden Heroics, Lounge Lizard and Topofthecotswolds have managed to win over a similar trip elsewhere,

Seven of the field have raced inside the last six weeks, but four (Topofthecotswolds, bottom weight Go On Chez, sole female Organdi and Empire de maulde) might well need the run, coming off respective breaks of 144, 189, 209 and some 371 days.

Instant Expert also tells me that all bar Java Point (0 from 5) have won a chase on good ground, but that only Ruthless Article & Empire de Maulde have won at this grade. All four runners to have visited Aintree have won here and only Tim Pat is waiting for a chase win over 3m to 3m2f after four attempts...

...whilst place form looks like this...

The place stats highlight decent last efforts from Empire de Maulde with a full line of green from the four main criteria (going/class/course/distance), whilst Kinindo Kwetu has 3 from 3, Go On Chez has 3 greens and a red (from just one C2 run) and Ruthless Article has 2 green and 2 amber. Lounge Lizard and Saint Arvans have no class/track experience but have handled the going and the trip well enough and the fact we can easily pull half a dozen names off that graphic shows the competitive nature of the contest.

The way this field have approached their most recent outings suggests they might get a little strung out...

...with Hidden Heroics, Topofthecotswolds and Lounge Lizard looking keen to get on with things, whilst I'd expect Saint Arvans and Go On Chez to let them get on with it and then wait for a late run. Fortunately for us, we know how previous past similar contests have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...which say that whilst hold-up horses do go on to make the frame more than mid-division runners, they do struggle to win here, which is a bot of a blow to Saint Arvans and Go On Chez.

Summary

The two best runners here for me are Kinondo Kwetu and Lounge Lizard and they'd be my starting point. The former is coming off a pair of Class 1 third places, before which he was six from six. He drops in class here after racing over course and distance off today's mark and that drop in class might be all he needs to get back to wining ways.

Lounge Lizard comes here seeking a hat-trick, but is up two classes and 9lbs. In fact, aside from one Class 3 outing, where he was beaten by 52 lengths, his other ten races have all been at Class 4 and this is a big step up, so of the pair, I'd be with Kinondo Kwetu. Only Hills had a book open at 4pm and I felt their 11/4 was a bit skinny as I was hoping for 7/2 or bigger, so I'll wait that out.

For the places, Lounge Lizard might be vulnerable to those from behind him like Hidden Heroics and Saint Arvans who are both more than capable under these conditions with the latter particularly attractive as an E/W possible at 14's, based on the way he has shaped in his last two runs.

Chris

Please Note, I'm away from home/my desk pretty much all day Friday, so no Saturday preview from me, sorry. I'll be back Sunday for Monday's racing.



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Racing Insights, Friday 12/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Chester
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton
  • 5.45 Nottingham
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 7.55 Kilbeggan

...the best of which is arguably the 2.40 Chester. The Huxley Stakes might only have six runners, but it's a Group 2 contest for 4yo+ runners over a left-handed 1m2½f on soft ground...

No surprise to see a small field for this one, the last eleven renewals have only had a combined 62 runners and the market is likely to be headed by Point Lonsdale, the mount of course specialist Ryan Moore. Ryan absolutely loves this race and he has ridden the winner in each of the last two years and going further back, he is 4 from 6, 6 from 11 and 7 from 13 in this contest!

It's not a handicap contest, so they all carry 9st 3lbs, which means that Mujtaba is technically a pound better off than Point Lonsdale, but he is up in class today and returns from a break of 202 days. He is, however, the only one of the six to have won here on the Roodee, having scored over 7½f in just his second outing, way back in September 2021. Royal Champion also returns from a break and he has been away a week longer than Mujtaba.

Both Foxes Tales and Point Lonsdale won last time out and Layfayette is the only one without a win in their last six starts, although he does have a Group 3 third and a Group 2 runner-up finish to his name from two runs at The Curragh already this season. He is, however, the lowest rated of the sextet, assessed as 8lbs inferior to Mujtaba.

FOXES TALES snapped a cold spell of eight defeats by landing a Listed race at Kempton last time out over 1m2f and should relish the return to grass and soft ground, where he is two from two.

LAYFAYETTE has been around the block a few times with 26 races under his belt, but he in winless in six since a five-week hat-trick at the start of last season. Has gone well in his first two starts of this campaign, but you'd have to expect others to be stronger.

MUJTABA won his first three races (Autumn 2021) and is five from eight so far, but all his recent form is at Class 2 and this is a big step up for him. He won on heavy ground last time out and has won on good, good to soft and soft, so going doesn't seem to faze him, but the added quality here and the effects of a layoff might undo him.

POINT LONSDALE has five wins and a runner-up finish from just seven starts, landing three Class 1 races as a 2yo in 2021 as well as a Group 1 runner-up spot. His only race last season was the 2000 Guineas when finishing out of the money, seven lengths behind Coroebus on his return from a 230-day absence. That said, he did win next/last time out at The Curragh in a Group 3 contest some 351 days later, so he's clearly ready to run.

POKER FACE is a lightly raced (4 starts) 4yr old who was 3 from 3 in the autumn of 2022 with a pair of Class 5 wins followed by a Class 4 success. He then took six months off before finishing second in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket on soft ground last month. Should go well, but I'd fancy others more.

ROYAL CHAMPION has won three of nine, but lacks consistency as typified by his last two runs. He landed a 1m2f Listed race by 5.5 lengths at Ayr in mid-September, but four weeks later was last home of nine tailed right off (120 lengths) in the Champion Stakes at Ascot and hasn't been seen since. Now coming back from 30 weeks off track, he's probably best left alone here until we see what kind of shape he's in, especially on his soft ground debut.

As well as having the talents of Ryan Moore in the saddle, Point Lonsdale can take comfort from knowing that Instant Expert also points him out as a leading player here...

...but both Foxes Tales and Royal Champion have poor records at Class 1, although the latter will certainly relish the soft ground where one of his two Class 1 wins came from. At this point, I'd be leaning towards those with some soft ground form.

At first glance, you'd be forgiven for thinking that those drawn centrally would have the best of it here...

...but I'm not convinced the bias is that pronounced although the lower half a of six-runner field would appear to have more chances of making the frame. In a small field here at Chester there's no real need to be out wide and the key to winning this may well revolve around who starts best and gets away quickest according tot he pace stats from those races above...

...facts backed up by the heat map, showing that you can win from anywhere in the draw, but that pace is key...

All of this is another tick in the box for Point Lonsdale...

Summary

It's very hard to get away from Point Lonsdale here, isn't it? And you can see why he's only priced at 5/4 or 11/8, but if you're happy playing at such odds, I'd expect you to be making profit. As or who chases him home, I think it's Foxes Tales v Mujtaba and although the bookies have them at best prices of 5/1 and 4/1, it's Foxes Tales for me.

They both won last time out, but Mujtaba is up in class and hasn't been seen for a while, whilst Foxes Tales has the 'better' draw, should race further forward and just happens to sit in a nice green spot on the pace/draw heatmap.

So, it's Point Lonsdale to beat Foxes Tales for me.



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Racing Insights, Friday 05/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Musselburgh
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Cheltenham
  • 7.55 Newcastle

The first of those is the 'best' on paper as a Group 2 race, but with a small field and a likely short favourite, I'll take the next on the list, the competitive-looking 3.00 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, which is unusual at this level and more surprisingly, only bottom weight Lord Rapscallion made thframe, but even that was at Class 4, as he now steps up two classes. Persuasion and Darkness are both also up from Class 3.

The Gatekeeper did win three races ago and Final Watch won four starts back, but the rest are winless in five. They have all, however, previously won at a trip similar to this one and three have won here at HQ; Accidental Agent scored over course and distance just over a year ago and Final Watch did so almost two years ago (and has won over 7f on the July course), whilst Star Of Orion won here over 6f on debut almost three years ago and has since scored over this trip on the July course.

The bottom three on the card could be excused for needing a run, as Bass Player, Accidental Agent and Star of Orion return from breaks of 22 to 27 weeks. Top weight Persuasion is back from a two-month rest and the other four have all raced in the past four weeks with Darkness & Lord Rapscallion out as recently as last week.

Instant Expert tells us that we have four previous good to firm ground winners, one trying it for the first time and one with a really poor win record! As for Class 2 racing, just two have wins under their belt and two have really toiled...

And with a  0 from 11 record on good to firm and an even worse 0/25 at Class 2, I won't be rushing out to back Lord Rapscallion. He's not great at this trip either, nor is Star of Orion who also has a dismal Class 2 record. I'm fairly sure neither of these would be winning this one. Elsewhere. Persuasion has struggled at the trip, but those 2 wins from 15 are his only two wins in a 21-race career, so I doubt he wins this either.

Yet, his place record at the trip is pretty good and only Accidental Agent's poor place record on good to firm ground stands out as being unwanted...

...he does seem to either win or not make the frame on good to firm!

Unusually for a straight seven furlongs, we do have a slight draw bias and similarly surprisingly, it seems to favour those drawn highest in eight runner contests...

...although the advantage isn't huge. Pace, however, is a totally different kettle of fish...

Those setting the pace make the frame in half of the races, but tend to only win 1 in 14 or so, leaving the door open for the stalking horses to come in and snatch the race late on, even to the extent that hold-up horses can often watch the leaders take each other on, do too much and be left vulnerable to a late run, but for now, a prominent position looks the best option, which based on recent runs...

...might make connections of The Gatekeeper a little wary of his ability to make all from the front. The pace/draw heat map...

...suggests we should focus on...

  • the mid-drawn to high prominent runners
  • or the low drawn leaders.

Summary

Our race pace/draw combinations look like this

...where the Bass Player looks the nearest thing to a mid/high drawn prominent runner, but he has been in such poor form that we might want to wait and see how his recent wind op has changed him. The Gatekeeper, however, does seem to the low drawn leader role and based on his winning run at the start of March, he's probably the one to beat here.

He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills, which I think is more than fair and the one who might cause him most bother is probably Final Watch. The rest are a fairly mediocre bunch for a Class 2 contest and it might well be Accidental Agent or Darkness who complete the frame here.



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Racing Insights, Friday 28/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded no qualifiers at all so it's a good job that this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Perth
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Perth
  • 7.45 Punchestown

...from which I have chosen the first on the list, the Highland National. It's the 2.05 Perth, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase featuring 23 fences spread over 3m6½f on good to soft ground and here's how they line up...

As you can see, top-weight Court Master was due to run for the first time in ten months (during which he'd had a wind op) since being pulled up in a Listed race at Uttoxeter, but has been withdrawn from this contest, leaving us the baker's dozen competitors. He'll probably run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday and this means that the entire field for this Perth race have all ran in the last twelve weeks with new top-weight Innisfree Lad seen as recently as nine days ago.

Silver In Disguise is our sole LTO winner, having scored over 3m½f at Wetherby earlier this month, but a few of his rivals have also won recently. Nearly Perfect is 3 from 7, Geryville is a regular placer, Fairlawn Flyer seems to win or be pulled up with four wins and 2 x P in his last six, whilst Concetto is 2 from 3, Destiny Is All is 3 from 7 and Return Fire is 2 from 6 as all of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings!

Planned Paradise, If Not For Dylan and Return Fire both now drop down from Class 2, but Fairlawn Flyer, Just Don't Know, Silver In Disguise (also up 5lbs) and Gentleman De Mai all step up a level from Class 4. Top-weight Innisfree Lad is the oldest here at 11, some 4yrs older and carrying 18lbs more than bottom-weight and joint youngest at 7, Return Fire.

None of this field have won over this trip, but Silver In Disguise won over 3m7f at Chepstow thirteen months ago. Other than that, Destiny In All's win over 3m3f at Ayr a year ago is the longest win of this field so far, although Fairlawn Flyer and If Not For Dylan have both won here at Perth before, albeit over at 3m½f hurdle and a 3m chase respectively.

The card tells us that couple of these are in first-time headgear, as Geryville is tongue-tied and Gentleman De Mai is visored, whilst Instant Expert says we have seven good to soft chase winners on display and half a dozen Class 3 chase winners, whilst Innisfree Lad is the only one to have scored at Class 2...

Innisfree Lad's record in this grade (1/13) is a worry, as is his 0 from 5 at 3m6f and beyond, but he is down to a reasonable mark, just a pound higher than his last win. Nearly Perfect has done well at Class 3 and  is 5lbs below his last win but all his best form is on soft ground. Geryville has won at both going and class but might be a little high in the weights.

Silver In Disguise poses a dilemma, as he stays the trip, but has a poor record at this level, as does If Not For Dylan. As can often be the case, the ones to consider might well be those without much relevant experience as there is a school of thought that backing horses trying something new is better than backing those that have failed repeatedly under set conditions. It's a thought, if nothing else! Perhaps, the place stats will open a door or two?

Here, you would expect to see plenty of green and regular placer Geryville catches the eye. He'll like the ground and has done well at this grade; Silver In Disguise and If Not For Dylan have struggled at Class 3, though. Destiny Is All has perfect percentage figures, as do Concetto and Gentleman de Mai off admittedly fewer runs.

And if we were to focus purely on green and amber stat percentages from the place form...

...then the five (because some bookies will pay five places here) that would interest me most from that would be (in card order) Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. That said, getting this trip here over so many fences on good to soft ground isn't easy and sadly, we don't have enough relevant pace data to help us out, as there aren't many similar races to fall back on as shown here...

Summary

In such a competitive looking race with many runners in decent nick and a lack of relevant pace data, I'm going to fall back onto the place stats from earlier and stick with my five-runner shortlist of Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. I feel that all of them stand a great chance of making the frame and I'll be checking the market to see of any are worth an E/W punt.

As for the winner, I think it's likely to be between Destiny Is All and Concetto and I really wouldn't like to try and split them if I'm honest and I'm not really surprised that they're at the top end of the market. My shortlist are currently (6.05pm) best priced at Innisfree Lad (14/1 4 places & 12/1 5 places), Geryville (8/1 both),  Concetto (13/2 & 11/2), If Not For Dylan (20/1 & 16/1) and Destiny Is All (13/2 & 6/1).

Destiny Is All and Concetto are a little short for my liking as E/W bets, but i wouldn't try to deter you from backing any or all of the other three.



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