Tag Archive for: Kempton racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 10/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 3.10 Ayr
  • 3.20 Wolverhampton
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Kempton

...and I think we'll see how track specialist Satin Snake might get on in the 6.00 Kempton, an 8-runner (Porfin doesn't go), Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices Handicap over a right handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

No LTO winners on display here, but feature horses Satin Snake was a runner-up 7 days ago and bottom weight Jupiter Express was also a runner-up 8 days ago. Both also won two starts ago and both have 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from their last five five, making them the 'form horses'. Conversely, The Green Man is winless in 6, Impeach has lost his last 8 and it's a losing streak of 16 races over almost two years for Gobi Sunset.

The two 'form' horses both step up a class here, but The Green Man, Mamillius and Gobi Sunset all drop a level after failing to make the frame on their most recent outings. Stockpyle might need the run after a five-month break during which he was gelded, but aside from Mamillius' three month absence, the others have all raced in the last month with both Satin Snake and Jupiter Express running in March already.

Stockpyle and Satin Snake are the only ones yet to win at this trip, but the latter is just one of two previous winners (finishes of 31211 over 7f!), along with Melly's Flyer who is 2 from 3 over course and distance. In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells me that on the A/W, five of these have won on standard to slow going and four of them have won at Class 4...

Aside from being 0 from 3 at this trip, you can see why Satin Snake is the H4C horse here, Elsewhere, I have worries over Mamillius (class/trip), Impeach (going/class) and Gobi Sunset (generally but class here) and as Mamillius might need the run after a lay-off, Impeach is on a run of 0 from 8 and Gobi Sunset 0 from 16, I'm crossing them off the list here, leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 7 & 8 and in similar past races here at Kempton, this is how the draw has worked out...

.suggesting that Mellys Flyer is at somewhat of a disadvantage and that Satin Snake might also not have the best of it, but good news for The Green Man, if nothing else. 23.5 wins would be par, so stalls 4 & 5 are neither badly nor well considered here. Interestingly, Satin Snake has won here from stall 7 before and also from stall 13, which is somewhere out near Kempton cricket club, so it might well be the race tactics are more important here and they say...

...that the further forward you can race the better from both a win and place perspective, which based on this field's recent endeavours...

...is less good news for The Green Man than before, but some respite for Satin Snake, whose average pace score from his last five visits here is 3.40. We have the draw and the pace covered, but how they interact may also offer some clues, so here's the heat map for this race...

...suggesting that a highly drawn runner's best chance of success is to get out quickly, as Satin Snake has done here in the past. When we combine today's drawn with the field's last four runs anywhere, we get...

...and although those drawn lower than Satin Snake look better placed, he does have the right pace profile if not the best draw.

Summary

It's hard to get away from the two 'form' horses, Satin Snake and Jupiter Express and they might well be the first two home. Satin Snake ticks plenty of boxes, but is relatively poorly drawn (although only two wide of Jupiter) and is 3lbs higher than his last win, which was by 0.75 lengths. Jupiter Express also brings similar form to the table, but lacks experience and was raised 4lbs for a half-length success. He's slightly worse treated than Satin and with his rivals record here at Kempton, it's Satin Snake for me, but Jupiter should definitely make the frame if not the runners-up spot.

Sadly, as I'm a bit later (6.15pm) than normal, the price on Satin Snake has gone and he's now the 9/4 fav although that's where I'd have him, along with the 7/2 about Jupiter Express. The bookies are giving us anything, but they're being fair here and the reverse forecast might pay reasonably.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.15 Fairyhouse
  • 1.45 Fairyhouse
  • 2.30 Ludlow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...and I think I'll see how the in-form yard gets on against the 1-year course specialist in the 7.00 Kempton, where Olympic Quest and Bernadine from my TS report are two of the nine runners tackling a Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a right handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

An unusual race here in that females outnumber the males with runners 1, 5, 7 & 9 being the boys (only #5 Fully Deployed has been gelded) and it's a race lacking in experience. They've only raced 44 times between them so far and of that 44, numbers 1, 6 & 7 (Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie) account for 24 with the other six runners out just three or four times. The three most experienced runners are the only previous winners too and all have won here at Kempton already.

Outrace & Bernadine both won over course and distance last time out, whilst Greavsie was a three-quarter length runner-up over track & trip. He did, however, win here over 7f two months ago and has won over a mile at Ffos Las back in September. I suspect that this might become a three-horse race, as the rest of the field haven't even made the frame in twenty combined starts. The three 'most likely' contenders all ran at this grade LTO, as did Fully Deployed but the other five all drop in class and it's a handicap debut for Olympic Quest and Paco's Pride, whilst Fully Deployed and Top of the Class tackle a handicap for just the second time.

The latter has been off the track the longest at 127 days, but aside from bottom-weight Double Down's 10-week absence, the rest have all been seen in the last 25 days with both Outrace and Greavsie running here a week ago. It's the second time in a hood for Olympic Quest and a second race since being gelded for Fully Deployed, whilst the bottom two on the card, Martini Lodge & Double Down will be sporting new headgear in the form of cheekpieces and a visor respectively.

We know that we're not going to get much from Instant Expert, but it's useful to see how many times the field has tackled similar conditions...

And at this point, Greavsie would look the weakest of the more experienced trio. Whilst of those with no data, Top of the Class has only raced at 6/7f in Class 3-5 contests and Paco's Pride has three 7f runs at Class 4/5 to her name as does Martini Lodge.

In past similar contests here at Kempton, stalls 4, 6 and 9 have an inexplicably poor record, but I'm not convinced that there's a huge draw bias here...

...which means that the actual pace of the race might be the aspect to focus on. All nine have had at least three runs to date, so we'll hopefully have enough data to see a pattern forming as to their running style(s)...

...where it looks like Outrace will attempt to set the fractions from stall 4, attempting to get across the likes of Fully Deployed and Double Down in boxes 3 & 1 respectively. Conversely Greavsie looks like he will dropped in at the back for a late surge, but the pace stats for those races above suggest he'd be better off stepping up a gear somewhat earlier...

Summary

I'd be surprised if this race didn't go to one of the three more experienced runners Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie. Of the three Greavsie has looked weakest on form, Instant Expert and pace and I prefer Outrace over Bernadine on the very same grounds. If none of the less exposed runners break into the top three, then I'd expect an Outrace-Bernadine-Greavsie 1-2-3 but sadly the market agrees with Outrace installed as a 3/1 favourite with my other pair at 4's.

 

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 19/01/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, thanks to the weather have been reduced to...

  • 1.55 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Kempton

...and as a Class 2 Conditions Stakes should be better than a Class 5 fillies' maiden, we're off to the 7.30 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2 contest over  a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

We should start with the elephant in the room, the faact that Annaf is very likely to go off as an odd-on favourite and he and Kiwano both won last time out, but Haziym and Tone The Barone are winless in at least five. Tinker Toy has a win and two runner-up finishes from his last four, whilst Aramis Grey goes one better with two wins and two runner-up spots.

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher and at just 5 days since his last run, he's the one who has had the least rest. Kiwano has also raced this year, but all six have been seen in the last month. Kiwano now steps up in class after his win 12 days ago.

Tinker Toy is the only one yet to win at the trip, whilst both Kiwano and Aramis Grey have both won over course and distance. It's not a handicap, of course, but based on official ratings vs weight, Tinker Toy is best off by a pound with Kiwano worst off.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, is another positive vote for our fav...

Tone The Barone has proven himself in this grade and Kiwano is 2 from 2 here, whilst Aramis Grey's two wins and two runner-up finishes on this track isn't too shabby. She's 2 from 3 over course and distance whilst Kiwano has over 6f and 7f. The mare is, of course, very good over this trip. What the above doesn't tell you is that she has 6 wins and 7 further places from 17 under today's jockey.

She's drawn in stall 1 here with the fav in stall 4 and our draw analyser suggests the mare has the better of the two draws, but maybe not as good as Tinker Toy in box 2...

That said, it's a 6f sprint around a bend on the A/W and I've a feeling that Aramis Grey won't be the first to the turn based on this field's recent outings...

There's no automatic lead-out horse, but Kiwano is the one I'd expect to set the pace over a track and trip where, in fairness, only mid-division horses have struggled...

...which is probably the first negative for Annaf here.

Summary

Annaf should be winning this and if you've deep pockets, you could make some money but at the stakes I play at, odds of 10/11 don't excite me and to be honest I didn't think it was that clear-cut, 11/8 or 6/4 might be a fairer price. However, that means some of the others might be longer than expected.

If Annaf is set aside as a likely winner, I'll also set aside Tone The Barone and Haziym from my calculations. The former is winless in six and hasn't even looked like making the frame, plus he's on track debut here, whilst the latter was a well-beaten last of seven on his UK debut on Boxing Day.

This leaves me with three for one place and there's not much to separate the three, but 7/2 shot Tinker Toy is probably better over 7f and hasn't yet won on poly track, 4/1 priced Kiwano has a good record here at Kempton but is worst off at the weights by some margin, whilst the 9/1 price about Aramis Grey looks quite big to me. She's proven at the track, trip (track & trip!) and going, gets on great with her jockey and is in decent form (1122) giving her a reasonable shot at making the frame.

Racing Insights, Saturday 14/01/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.35 Lingfield
  • 1.45 Lingfield
  • 1.57 Wetherby
  • 2.32 Wetherby
  • 2.40 Kempton

The sharper-eyed amongst will have noticed that one runner from my TJC Report goes in one of our free races, which means I should take a look at that race. I wouldn't normally go anywhere near this kind of race normally (too many runners!), but shall we see if we can quickly identify a possible E/W bet or two in the Lanzarote? That's the 2.40 Kempton on your cards and it's a 20-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m5f on soft ground. Our selection from the TJC Report won the race last year for the same trainer/jockey combo and here's how they line up...

FORM : Scarface comes here on a hat-trick but Red Risk, Quinta do Mar, Fifty Ball, Green Glory, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee all won last time out and the last three on that have won two of their last three, whilst Whizz Kid and Hermes Boy are both winless in five.

CLASS : Ten of these (Pentland Hills, last year's winner Cobblers Dream, Quinta Do Mar, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Outlaw Peter, Up for Parol, Dubrovnik Harry, Rathmacknee & Hermes Boy) all move up one class and Mark of Gold steps up two levels, but top weight Camprond and Stag Horn both drop down from Class 1 (Gr2 and Gr1 respectively), leaving just seven who ran at this grade LTO.

ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : No new headgear or any wind ops, but Pentland Hills, West Balboa & Green Glory make just their second handicap starts, whilst class dropper Stag Horn & Outlaw Peter are both on handicap debut.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Last year's winner (obviously!) Cobblers Dream has won over course and distance, as has Outlaw Peter, but we've no other Kempton winners. However Red Risk, Stag Horn, Harbour Lake, Shantou Express, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Rathmacknee and Scarface have all scored over similar trip to this 2m5f one.

LAST RACE : At 276, 281 and 293 days respectively, Up For Parol, Stag Horn and Fifty Ball all return from at least nine months 'rest'. Outlaw Peter was last seen ten weeks ago, but the remainder have all raced in the last two months with Hermes Boy out as recently as a fortnight ago as a Uttoxeter runner-up on New Year's Eve.

AGE : Petit Tonnerre is the 'baby' of the pack, taking on 5 x 6yos, 9 x 7yos and 5 x 8yos in a race that 6yos have fared best in over the last 25 years.

In addition to the course/distance winners above, eleven of these have won on soft ground already and five have won at this grade, as documented here by Instant Expert...

...where Stag Horn looks pretty well suited by conditions. Pentland Hills, Up for Parol and Hermes Boy don't have great soft ground form and Red Risk has a poor record at Class 2 with Whizz Kid also 0/4 at this level. Quinta Do Mar doesn't look like he'll be suited by the race either, but most of these to have tackled the trip have done well enough.

The report about last year's race said of the winners, Cobblers Dream..."prominent, led before 2 out, ridden after 2 out, not fluent last, stayed on strongly run-in ..." as he won by 5.5 lengths and although the sample size is fairly small, I'd suggest that such an approach is going to pan out better than being held up...

...which based on their most recent outings...

...probably doesn't bode well for all those from Mark of Gold downwards, excepting perhaps Cobblers Dream and Harbour Lake.

Summary

It's a pretty open-looking race to be fair, but the standouts are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee on form. Cobblers Dream and Outlaw Peter have won over course and distance and Stag Horn caught the eye on Instant Expert. I also want to be in the upper half of the pace chart and based on everything above, the ones that interest me most are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn.

I think all five have a decent chance of making the frame, whilst Outlaw Peter might not be a bad win shout at 7/1 and with most bookies paying six places (Sky pay seven!), you could make a pretty good E/W case for Scarface, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn at odds of 20/1, 18/1, 18/1 and 14/1 respectively.

Good Luck and have a great weekend.