Tag Archive for: Kempton racecourse

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/03/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 2.25 Uttoxeter
  • 3.55 Kempton
  • 4.15 Thurles
  • 4.45 Uttoxeter
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

We've a couple of TJC runners entered into the 2.25 Uttoxeter from our 'free' list, but 18-runner contests aren't my thing, but all isn't lost as the in-form Skeltons run Hitching Jacking in the 3.55 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three mile trip on good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point (who drops a class here), Egbert (who'll wear first-time blinkers) and Statuario (if he's race-ready after an 18-month break). The latter comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Egbert has won two of his last three.

All bar Strictlyadancer and Cap du Nord have won at least once in their last seven outings (Northern Poet is four from seven since returning from a 624-day absence), but this pair are now winless in seven and eleven races respectively, bit do both drop down two classes here, whilst the top two in the weights, Slipway & Java Point drop down one level.

Hitching Jacking and the returning Statuario are yet to win over this kind of trip, whilst bottom weight Cap du Nord is our only previous course and distance winner. Egbert has also won on this track and that was over 2m5f three starts ago, as identified by Instant Expert...

...where aside from just one losing run on the going, Egbert looks best suited. The going doesn't look like Cap du Nord's preference at 1 win from 9. That said, he has only won 1 of his last 12 and that win came just 2 days shy of two years ago, so if he doesn't win here, he'll be 0/9 on the going next time around over a 2-year period! We've four Class 3 winners, of course and Java Point has fared best at the trip.

The place stats do seem to be negative about Cap du Nord again...

, although he (like most of his rivals) does have a little bit of form at this grade. He's bottom weight here, 9lbs lower than his last and has regressed over the last couple of years. he's not getting any younger/fitter at the age of 11, so he may have to drop further in class if remaining in training, as he's certainly not for me here.

If Statuario picks up where he left off 18 months ago, then he's likely to try to control the tempo of the race from the front...

...whilst Strictlyadancer is a confirmed hold-up horse, a tactic that hasn't really panned out well in similar past contests...

Summary

I started by saying that my initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point, Egbert and Statuario and whilst I have reservations about all three, none of their five rivals have made enough appeal for me to change my mind, although Northern Poet had gone well at the back end of last season before disappointing on his comeback run at Exeter recently.

Java Point stayed on well to win at Sandown last time out and was better than the 1.5 length margin might suggest. he is up 4lbs for that run, but does take a drop in class and in what might be a tight contest, he'd be my marginal pick ahead of his fellow 11/4 joint favourite Egbert. Egbert starred on Instant Expert, but might not be suited by the pace of the race if he's closer to back than front early on. I've little between these, but Java Point edges it.

Statuario hasn't been seen for 18 months and that's a worry, but he did each of his last two starts, the last by some twenty lengths. He should be up front controlling the tempo and if fit enough to last, he becomes very E/W backable at 10/1. Northern Poet would be the other E/W option here at 12's if he can get over that last effort at Exeter where he struggled from some way out.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/03/2024

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...

...1-year form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Fontwell
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton

Our three 'free' races and our four TS races have nothing better than Class 4 to offer us, mind you Class 4 is as 'good' as it gets this Wednesday and of the three Class 4 races above, only two have eight runners or more, from which one is a maiden hurdle, leaving me to focus upon the 6.30 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack as is often the norm here...

FORM : Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Nariko both won last time out, whilst LTO runner-up Media Shooter won two starts ago, Roman Emperor won four races back and Kinnigoli Kid won three back, but Mashadi and Brunel Nation are both maidens after five and three outings respectively, although Mashadi was the runner-up in each of his first four starts.

CLASS : All bar Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Brunel Nation ran at this level last time, but his trio all step up a class, which surely won't help the latter to get off the mark?

WHAT'S NEW? : It's handicap debut day for Jungle Mac, Nariko and Brunel Nation and a second handicap start for Kinnigoli Kid. It's also yard debut day for both Macanudo and Nariko, whilst both Mashadi and Brunel Nation run for the first time since being gelded. This will also be the first time that Mashadi, Kinnigoli Kid and Brunel Nation have raced on anything other than turf.

LAST RUN : Half of the field have raced in the last 11-26 days, but Brunel Nation, Nariko, Mashadi and Kinnigoli Kid now return from lengthy absences of 142, 161, 162 and 199 days respectively.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Macanudo and the two maidens Mashadi and Brunel Nation have already won at least once over today's trip with both Media Shooter and Nariko having won over course and distance on their penultimate and last runs respectively and those course wins can be seen below on INSTANT EXPERT...

As is often the case, we get more information from the place data than we do from the win stats when we deal with inexperienced runners and it's good to see that those who have faced similar conditions in the past have ran well. Seven to nine runner contests over this left-handed six furlongs at Kempton have definitely favoured those drawn lowest, according to our draw analyser...

...which could be very good news for one of the two Instant Expert stand-outs, the in-form Media Shooter who has landed stall 1 here, but getting the best draw is only half of the story here at Kempton as best explained by the pace analyser from those 200+ races above, where there's a clear emphasis on being up with if not setting the pace...

...rendering this draw/pace heat map pretty unsurprising...

So,we know that Media Shooter has the plum #1 draw, but his best chances of winning are going to be by running prominently or better still, setting the tempo of the race. Fortunately for his chances here, this is how he raced when a runner-up over course and distance last time out...raced keenly, led 1f, chased leader, led again inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong..and when a course and distance winner two starts ago...chased leaders, switched left, effort and pushed along 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, ran on well.

This gave him a pace score of 3 in both races and here's how the whole field have approached their most recent contests...

...which suggests that Roman Emperor and Jungle Mac from stalls 2 and 7 might well dispute the early lead, but I suspect that having Roman Emperor just next door will drag Media Shooter along nicely.

Summary

Form, Instant Expert, draw and pace all point me towards Media Shooter here and I'm hoping that once the markets are formed that we can get 4/1 to 5/1 about him. I might be being a little optimistic there, of course, but he's the one that interests me most here. Next best might well be Jungle Mac who also comes here in good nick, having defied a 132-day absence to get off the mark recently. He hasn't been too badly treated with an opening mark of 79 and much will depend on his ability to get to the front early on from stall 7.

I like these two because not only are recent results good and they've got the 'right' pace profile for this contest, but they've also both raced in the last 17 days. Coming off a break is tough in sprint contests here at Kempton, but of the four returning from a layoff, the filly Nariko would be the one most likely to get involved. She cost 600,000 guineas at the breeze-up and was a course and distance winner on her last outing.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/02/23

/in /by

Apologies for the lack of RI service over the last couple of days, I had to take some time way to deal with a family issue, but I'm back now and Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.50 Fontwell
  • 4.10 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and with Simon Crisford's Inverlochy above also running in one of our free races, I really should take a look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a right handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Not only is our featured runner Inverlochy the only LTO winner, she comes here on a hat-trick and and has four wins and a half-length defeat as a runner-up from her last five runs, making her the clear form pick. Dayzee made the frame last time around and has three wins and three places from her last seven, whilst Crystal Casque and Incrimination are both two from seven. Lady Lavinia won five races ago, but Measured Moments and Smiling Sunflower are winless in seven and eleven respectively, although the former has been a runner-up in four of those seven losses.

Lots of class movement today, as only Incrimination ran at Class 4 last time out. Dayzee drops two classes whilst Crystal Casque and Measured Moments are both down one level with Inverlochy, Lady Lavinia and Smiling Sunflower all up one class. The latter is turned back out quickest too, just five days after her last run, but Lady Lavinia has had nine weeks rest. Measured Moments has been off for 53 days, but the remainder have all raced in the last 10 to 25 days.

Dayzee and Inverlochy have both won over a mile on other tracks whilst Lady Lavinia and Smiling Sunflower have both scored here over 7f at Kempton before with Crystal Casque our sole course and distance winner, having done so just over a year ago off 9lbs lower than today, which brings us nicely to Instant Expert, our overview of past performances under similar conditions...

...where Crystal Casque looks like she might struggle to win, based on those win percentages above. Dayzee seems to have proven herself at Class 4 and Inverlochy is 3 from 5 at the trip whilst Lady Lavinia's Class 4 win here over 7f in January '23 has made her figures look good. If we then look at the place stats from the same races...

...you can make more of a case for Crystal Casque to run well in defeat, but I'd be wanting to discard the last two on the card, Measure Moments and Smiling Sunflower. They're drawn almost at polar ends of the stalls and our draw analyser suggests that whilst there's not a huge bias from a win perspective, those drawn lower do tend to make the frame most often...

However, the pace is a different matter, as there's a distinct bias here that says the further forward a horse runs, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame...

Quite a few have been keen to get on with things of late, none more so than our featured runner Inverlochy...

Her ungraded run three starts ago should also be scored a 4, as the race report reads...led, ridden over 1f out, headed towards finish... so with a 4-race average pace score of 3.50, I'd expect her to set the pace.

Summary

No surprises to read that I think the one to beat is our featured runner, Inverlochy. Her yard do well here at Kempton, she's the form horse, she scored well on Instant Expert, is drawn halfway along the stall and is likely to lead early doors. All of which points to another big run and her current (3.50pm) 9/4 price with Hills (only book open) seems pretty fair, I though she might have been a bit shorter.

Dayzee might well be the one to chase her home; she's also in decent nick, she's down two classes after finishing third over 1m2f, she's proven at class and trip and is draw in stall 2. She also likes to get on with things and would be my second choice here. Sadly she's the 7/2 second favourite, so there's no E/W play there for me, as I like to bet at 8/1 or bigger with E/W bets. Only the 12/1 Lady Lavinia is higher than 8's but if you can get on her with Bet365, Skybet, Coral or Betfred who all pay three places, she might be worth a little tickle.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/02/24

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Fairyhouse
  • 4.10 Sedgefield
  • 4.30 Fairyhouse
  • 4.50 Ludlow

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

1-year course form...

5-year course form...

...and I think we'll look at the Tate and Crisford runners in what initially looks a tight race for the 6.30 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on Standard To Slow polytrack...

NEAPOLITAN has a win and three runner-up finishes in his last five outings starting with a win over 6f on this track back in October. Closer than 5th of 10 LTO would sound and drops two classes here.

GUNFIGHTER is the only one of this field with a top-3 finish LTO, beaten by less than a length at Lingfield. Prior to that run, he'd won 2 of 4 (both wins on Tapeta), including one win at today's trip.

EMINNY won two of her first three starts last summer, but is winless in six since although she did make the frame in back to back handicaps in September before a wide-margin Listed class defeat last time out. Hasn't raced in 96 days since then and now drops back to Class 4 for her A/W debut.

AHLAIN also drops down from Class 1 here after finishing last of six (42 lengths adrift) in a Group 3 race at Goodwood in August. She did win here over course and distance (Class 5) two starts ago on her sole A/W outing to date and whilst unexposed after just three starts, might need the run after 165 days off.

RICH GLORY is another with very few miles on the clock having made just four appearances to date, all on turf (good/good to Firm). He has been gelded during a 4-month break and steps up in trip for the first time here, but does drop two classes for his handicap and cheekpieces debuts.

CROSS THE TRACKS won a Class 4, 6f novice event on debut back in September, but struggled in four subsequent races before running here over course and distance last time out, when headed inside the final furlong. he'd have probably still made the frame but for losing a couple of places when hampered close to the line. Could get closer with less traffic to contend with.

Instant Expert says...

...that off an admittedly small sample size (the field only has 35 combined outings), Neapolitan and Ahlain have the best set of results, whilst Gunfighter is very experienced (relatively speaking, of course!) at Class 4. He has the inside draw here and whilst stalls 3 & 4 have fared better than the inner stalls, he's not in a bad starting point according to our draw analyser...

...which says those drawn highest are lest likely to win/place. That said, they can still win, but their best angle of attack is probably to try and get away and grab the lead, as highlighted by our pace/draw heat map...

...which is derived from those draw stats above and the following pace data from the same races...

The potential glitch/fly in the ointment comes with this field's pace stats from their most recent outings...

...suggesting little early pace, although Rich Glory and Neapolitan tend not to hang about.

Summary

On form, Neapolitan and Gunfighter look the ones to beat and both are drawn low to middle of the six, thus avoiding the higher two stalls. Neapolitan was the pick of the pack, followed by Ahlain on Instant Expert and despite a lack of help from the pace stats, I'd be inclined to believe that this trio would be the first three home.

Of the three, I like Neapolitan best with not a great deal to choose between the other two. No prices were offered at 3.35pm Tuesday, but I'd expect Neapolitan to be around the 3/1 mark.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/01/24

/in /by

Happy Belated New Year everyone, I hope you all had a very merry Christmas and a good New Year's Eve/Day, I know I did!

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have sadly highlighted no qualifiers. Thankfully, in addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.20 Ffos Las
  • 1.50 Ffos Las
  • 7.00 Kempton

Ffos Las has unfortunately been abandoned, as has the card at Huntingdon, leaving Kempton as the sole meeting. Our 'free' race on that card is actually the joint highest rated and joint highest prize on the card, so we'll stick with the 7.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

It's an inexperienced field with just 41 races between them. The most experienced (Bulldog Drummond) has raced 10 times to date, but all have at least three outings under their belts. My initial thoughts were that this might be a two-horse race between Engineer and the afore-mentioned Bulldog Drummond but let's see what the card tells us...

Bulldog Drummond was the only one to win last time out and only Engineer and Ippotheos have won a race prior to this one. Engineer has mad the frame in all three outings, Gaiden has been a back to back runner-up and both Flag Carrier and Persian Blue were in the frame on their last outings.

All bar Gaiden, the fast-finishing () Ippotheos and Flag Carrier are stepping up from Class 5 and it will be handicap debut day for Engineer, Cast No Shadow and Persian Blue, whilst Ippotheos and Flag Carrier both run in handicap company for just the second time. Persian Blue wears a tongue tie for the first and she is the quickest turned back out, just seven days after finishing third at Wolverhampton. Engineer has been off track the longest, but seven weeks is hardly a long break from action and the other eight have all been seen in the last 13-26 days.

Only three of the field have raced here before, making the frame four times from five combined runs but no wins. Our three previous winners, Engineer, Ippotheos & Bulldog Drummond have all won at this trip, though...

With so little winning form from this bunch, I've also included the place stats and they do suggest that the upper half/five on the card would be the place to focus with Engineer the standout. Ippotheos might find this tough at 11lbs higher than his sole win, but he does have a 7lb claimer on board to help in that respect. Bulldog Drummond and Flag Carrier both have much better place stats than their win records on the A/W.

The draw stats from previous similar contests show that the lower a horse has been drawn here, the greater the chances of making the frame and ultimately winning...

...which is another boost to the claims of Engineer, but not great for Flag Carrier.

Those 70 or so races above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those who race prominently or lead and based on this field's last three runs (some only have three!)...

...that's another tick in the box for Engineer. There's also some encouragement for Flag Carrier from his wide draw, whilst it may well be Cast No Shadow who sets the early pace. He has failed to hold on in his last two, both over 5f, so I suspect the extra furlong here makes life even tougher.

Summary

When I first looked at the card, I thought it might be a two-horse race between Engineer and Bulldog Drummond, but I'm much keener on the former now I've had a closer look and  the 7/2 (Hills at 3.40pm) Engineer is the one for me. Bulldog will run his race and make a late dash for the line, as will the fast-finishing Ippotheos, but they might encounter traffic. That said, neither are backable IMO as E/W options at their current odds of 4/1 & 6/1 respectively.

If Ippotheos drifted from 6's and/or Flag Carrier was longer than the current 13/2, then they might be the ones for E/W consideration, but for now, I'll just stick with Engineer.

Racing Insights, Monday 27/11/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.35 Ludlow
  • 3.05 Kempton

The first is a maiden hurdle, so let's try the 3.05 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m5f on good/good to soft ground...

THELASTHIGHKING finished 211 in his last three runs of the previous season and returned to action here at Kempton five weeks ago with a great run to finish second of seven despite being raised 5lbs and being off for 193 days. He could well strip fitter for the run, but does step up in trip and is up another 5lbs.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT hasn't won any of his eleven races over the last two years since winning by a short head at Ascot on November 2021 and was beaten by 39 lengths as 9th of 11 at Cheltenham last month, but does drop a class here.

GLOIRE D'ATHON has made the frame in 6 of 10 efforts over fences (5 wins) and his results in the 16 months from April '22 read 22111211, but was pulled up at Newbury earlier this month on his return from a 4-month break.

OUR JET looks like the first pick of the two Dan Skelton runners in the field and he was 3rd of 10 at Newbury earlier this month when returning from almost seven months off the track (had a wind op in that time). He was well beaten that day, though, coming home some 32 lengrths behind the winner of a well strung-out field. He now sports cheekpieces for the first time and could be of interest off this mark.

MULLINAREE makes a chase debut here 45 days after contesting a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Chepstow, where he was 5th of 7. Prior to that run, his career had been revitalised by wearing a hood and tongue tie during five successive wins over 2m3½f to 2m5½f on ground ranging from good to heavy, so going and trip shouldn't be his downfall here, but will he take to the bigger obstacles?

AMOOLA GOLD is the second of the Skelton duo and he receives weight all round. He's the sole LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three, albeit both over hurdles wither side of finishing last of six (beaten by 58L) over fences at Haydock in March. His last chase win was a Listed contest at Ascot, but it was over two years ago and his form over fences since then reads 2643847736.

Instant Expert says that all five to have raced over fences have won at least once on good or good to soft ground and four of them have won at Class 3. Only three have been chasing at Kempton before and they're a collective 0 from 4, whilst Gloire D'Athon seems best suited to the trip...

Before Midnight has poor win records at both Class & trip, whilst Amoola Gold has a similar record over the distance. On base stats alone, Gloire D'Athon looks of interest. He normally runs in mid-division or slightly further forward, according to his last four outings and if all six run as they have been doing of late, he's likely to take third rank early doors...

...with chase debutant Mullinaree and Skelton second-stringer Amoola Gola the more likely front-runners. Should Gloire D'Athon want to make the frame or even go on to win, then his prominent running style might just bear fruit if this track/trip's results are anything to go by...

Summary

The Lasthighking is probably the best horse in the race and if he comes on for having had the run and reverts back to front-running like he did two starts ago, he'll be very difficult to beat. He is, however, as low as 13/8 and only as high as 15/8 and there's no guarantees that he won't be held up and he is up another 5lbs here, so whilst he's probably the one to beat, there's no value on the price.

Our Jet could go well if not left with too much to dao, but this isn't really a race I want to bet heavily on and I think for interest, I'll have a small E/W wager on Gloire D'Athon to outrun bet365's 16/1 price ticket. He'd not be an obvious winner, but his suitability for the test says he's too big at 16's.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/11/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 5.50 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

And from all the races above, I'm going to look at the 7.30 Kempton, as it's on the free list and has a runner from the daily free feature in the shape of James Fanshawe's Royal Scandal. The race itself is a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Cardano is the only LTO winner in this field, but Capital Theory, Enthrallment and Haku all had top three finishes. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Graphite, Enthrallment and Kenzai Warrior have lost their last 9, 8 and 15 races respectively.

The latter's cause won't be helped by stepping up a class here, as do Enthrallment and Haku with Cardano and Buxted Too both up two grades, whilst Savvy Knight, Batemans Bay, Capital Theory and Geremia all drop down a level with Batemans Bay running in a handicap for just the second time, as does Adrian; Kenzai Warrior wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Adrian, Cardano, Graphite, Dark Moon Rising and Geremia have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst the latter has scored here over two miles. Kenzai Warrior has also won here and that was over a mile, whilst Savvy Knight, Buxted Too, Royal Scandal and Haku are all former course and distance winners, as highlighted by Instant Expert...

...where featured runner Royal Scandal is the immediate eyecatcher, albeit of a small sample size. Buxted Too and Haku have good records at this type of trip, but Savvy Knight and Capital Theory share just 1 win from 14 attempts, however the latter has made the frame in 5 of his 7 defeats...

...and he (Capital Theory) looks to be a strong contender for the frame on the above evidence, as do Geremia and Haku. This trio will set off from opposite ends of the stalls, though with Capital Theory drawn in 1 and the other pair out in 9 & 11 but our Draw Analyser says that the draw shouldn't be the reason for a horse losing this race...

...with any advantage gained only being slight. This is pretty logical, I'd have thought with a mile and a half to run, the draw really shouldn't be an issue. The key here at Kempton over this type of trip is not to leave yourself too much to do, as the Pace Analyser says that hold-up horses fare worse than any others...

...which, based on the field's last three outings doesn't represent great news for the likes of Graphite, Dark Moon Rising, Batemans Bay and Geremia...

...but it looks like Capital Theory and Adrian will be amongst the early pacemakers.

Royal Scandal, Capital Theory, Geremia and Haku were the ones that stood out for me from Instant Expert, but only Capital Theory and Haku look like having decent enough pace profiles to do well here from that quartet. I'd add Adrian, Savvy Knight and Enthrallment into the mix on pace too, to give me a shortlist of five to consider here.

Summary

I've left myself with five to look at and two of them : Capital Theory (5/1), Royal Scandal (6/1) and Savvy Knight (13/2) are in the trio at the top end of the market, along with our featured runner. Of the three, I like Capital Theory the best, but I think 5/1 is too short here and the other pair aren't long enough for my liingto back E/W.

So, that brings me to Enthrallment, Haku and Adrian and of this trio, it's Enthrallment who interests me most as an E/W option at 17/2 with Hills who pay four places. He was a runner-up last time out beaten by less than a length but well clear of the pack and a similar run puts him in the frame again.

Adrian is a rank outsider with plenty to prove, but Haku could go well here. A former course and distance winner who looks in decent nick and was third over C&D off a pound higher last time out. He's currently available at 10/1 with Hills (4 places) and could also be a reasonable E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/11/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.05 Musselburgh
  • 2.15 Musselburgh
  • 3.10 Dundalk
  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following pair of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

Course 1-year form...

The TS report races and the free list both include a Class 2 contest, which is as good as it gets in the UK this Wednesday and we're going to focus on the race featuring James Fanshawe's 6 yr old gelding Fresh, as his race is easily the most valuable of the day at over £41k to the winner. The race, of course, is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

Clearpoint was the only one of these to win last time out, but he's up two classes here. And although beaten on their latest outings, Prop Forward, Fivethousandtoone, Aramis Grey and Baldomero all had top-three finishes, but the latter is now up a class, as are the fast-finishing May Sonic, yard debutant Danger Alert, Justcallmepete, Watchya and Admiral D.

Fresh, May Sonic, Watchya, Baldomero and Admiral D are all without a win in at least seven races, having actually lost 9, 7, 7, 19 & 16 respectively on the bounce! Dubai Station is another making a yard debut here and featured horse Fresh will wear cheekpieces for the first time.

Four of this field raced just a week ago here over this course and distance at a class lower than this and here's how they finished in 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th in a 9-runner field won by another James Fanshawe horse...

Four others have raced in the last 23-39 days, but the final four may well need the run, as Dubai Station & Danger Alert return from 4 month breaks; Prop Forward has been off for six months and it's nine months since Fivethousandtoone was last seen

Baldomero is the only runner in the field yet to score over 6f, but he has at least won here at Kempton, albeit 20 races ago when landing a Class 2, 1m2f handicap just over 20 months ago. Six others have also been successful at this track with Prop Forward, Fresh, May Sonic, Danger Alert, Aramis Grey and Clearpoint all former course and distance winners and those wins are included in the following data from Instant Expert...

...where I have immediate concerns about Baldomero (going/class), Aramis Grey (class) and Fresh (trip). Fresh is also showing at 18lbs higher than his last A/W win, which would be a major issue, but that is tempered somewhat by the fact that his last win was off 91 on the Flat at Ascot, he's still 6lbs above that, of course and not in the best of form, but 6lbs is far better than 18lbs.

Despite his poor return at Class 2 on the A/W, Aramis Grey looks like being one of the best suited here behind May Sonic and the obvious pick, Prop Forward. His 1 from 8 at this grade might well contain a number of near misses, so let's check the place stats...

...which say he has made the frame in six of his seven Class 2 defeats and he's a real contender now. Prop Forward's 100% record across the line is impressive and both Fivethousandtoone and Baldomero have great numbers, but May Sonic now looks like a win or bust merchant.

Our Draw Analyser suggests a distinctive advantage to being placed in the lowest third of the draw for both win and place perspectives...

...which will be welcomed by connections of Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D, but as we all know by now, getting a 'plum' draw is only half of the battle in these sprint contests and we really shouldn't underplay the pace/tactics side of the equation. Using those same 220+ races as above, our Pace Analyser says that as with many sprints, pace wins the race with leaders winning/placing far more often (percentage-wise) than the rest of the field...

In fact, the 290 leaders make up just 11.54% of the total runners, but account for 27.68% of the winners and 20.24% of the placer, but the interesting thing is that almost 46% of leaders who make the frame then go on to win. If we then look at how this field have raced in their three most recent outings, then it looks like another tick in the box for Instant Expert stand-out Prop Forward...

...and if we arrange the field into draw order and impose them onto the pace/draw heatmap...

...I'd suggest that Prop Forward beats Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D to the bend and will get to cut across the apex and lead the way home with the rail at this disposal.

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the pace/draw combinations, it's difficult to envisage Prop Forward not being the one to beat. His A/W record reads 1131 with the last two being over this class, course and distance and whilst he's not been seen for six months, it's worth noting those last two A/W runs (over class, C&D) saw him third of eleven after 213 days off and he then won a 12-runner affair 251 days later on his next appearance, so this lay-off doesn't worry me.

We're not getting rich or upsetting the applecart by backing a 10/3 (Hills at 4.50pm) favourite, but Prop Forward looks the most likely to succeed in my eyes.

I like the look of Aramis Grey, but he's going to have to fly late on to get involved from the back, so if I was to look for a longer-priced E/W punt, then I think that the fast finishing May Sonic might be the one at 12/1 (Bet365, 4 places), whilst you could also make cases for both Baldomero (11/1 PP, 4 places) and Watchya (20/1 PP, 4 places) if they get away smartly from wider draws, as they should be able to cut across the runners in stalls 5 to 8 to give chase to Prop Forward.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/10/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Bangor
  • 2.20 Catterick
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 4.25 Navan
  • 5.12 Nottingham

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

14-day form

course 5-year form

Of all those races above, the one featuring Charlie Appleby's Mischief Magic is the highest-rated, so we're going to look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 2, A/W 3yo + contest over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out and only Aramis Grey had a top three finish, but all bar Desert Cop, Baldomero and Misty Grey have at least one win in their recent form lines. Brad The Brief and featured runner Mischief Magic have the benefit of dropping down from runs at Listed class and Group 1 respectively and the latter is a former Group 3 winner.

He hasn't raced for almost 15 weeks, but Baldomero has been off for nearly 18 weeks and Never Just A Dream hasn't been seen of eight months and would probably need the run. As well as dropping in class, Brad The Brief wears cheekpieces for the first time and Mischief Magic runs for the first time since being gelded.

All bar Baldomero have won at this trip already, but he has at least won here at Kempton (Class 2, 1m2f, 17 months ago), whilst Desert Cop, Aramis Grey and Mischief Magic are all course and distance winners, as shown on Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Baldomero might well be outclassed based on a 1 in 10 record at C2 and that Aramis Grey (1/7) might also struggle. From the above, Desert Cop, Mischief Magic and Never Just A Dream are the eye-catchers.

The draw stats from similar past races have suggested that a low draw is preferable...

...along with a willingness to get on with things...

...which looks like more good news for Never Just A Dream...

If we combine the pace & draw stats, we get the following pace/draw heat map...

...where Never Just A Dream would sit in the Mid/Led 15.52% sector, which is probably as good as we're getting for this field...

Summary

Never Just A Dream should be my pick here based purely on the above and at 11/1, he'd make a decent E/W bet. He scores well on Instant Expert, has the best pace profile in the race and is drawn close enough to the lower end to not be adrift, but he hasn't raced since appearing at Meydan eight months ago and tackles polytrack for the first time. Those two negatives even outweigh the booking of James Doyle and stops me from backing him to win.

I suspect the winner will be our featured runner, Mischief Magic. Charlie Appleby's horses are flying right now and this horse is the class horses in the race. He's a former Group 3 winner who drops down from Group 1 to run here, he's easily the highest rated and has won over course and distance. His jockey/trainer combined to win this race two years ago and I expect them to land it again this year.

Sadly, we're not getting rich here, though, as Mischief Magic is currently Even money with Hills (only book open right now). I expected him to be short, but not this short, I was rather hoping for around 6/4, but you can't always get what you want!

Brad the Brief also drops in class and should go well, but 7/2 isn't E/W territory for me.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 23/08/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Bath
  • 3.00 York
  • 3.45 Carlisle
  • 5.05 Bath
  • 5.10 Sligo

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year course form...

Of all the races above (free & TS report), the Great Voltigeur (3.00 York) is clearly the highest rated, but with just five going to post, I'll swerve that one. Sadly the rest of our highlighted races are at Class 4 and below, the most valuable of which is the race featuring in-form James Tate's 3yo gelding Endless Power, who runs in the 8.22 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Endless Power was a winner last time out, as was Starshiba, whilst Baileysgutfeeling, Two Tempting, Owl Island, Florida and Super Den have all won at least one of their last five races.

Four of these (Spinaround, Baileysgutfeeling, Owl Island and Florida) drop down a grade from Class 3 action with the latter having just a second handicap run, whilst First View is down two classes here. Featured runner and LTO winner Endless Power is the only class riser, as he makes a handicap debut on his step up from a Class 5 run four weeks ago.

Most of his rivals have also had a recent (last 45 days) run, but Spinaround has been off for almost ten weeks and Florida has been away almost fifteen weeks and might need a run. He's tongue tied for the first time here, whilst Baltimore Boy debuts in a visor and it's a first run in blinkers for Million Thanks.

First View and Super Den have both won over this course and distance in the past and Baileysgutfeeling, Starshiba, Ernie's Valentine and Florida have all scored on this track. Spinaround, Starshiba, Million Thanks and Endless Power are all former mile winners on other tracks.

Collateral/relative A/W form is displayed on Instant Expert, where First View would appear to be in his element...

...as his four-race A/W career reads 1121, all over course and distance with the defeat coming by just a head and his last run here saw him land a Class 2 contest off a mark 3lbs higher than today, so this track & trip specialist might be very dangerously weighted here if recapturing some old form. Spinaround, Baltimore Boy, Million Thanks and Venetian look most vulnerable albeit off small sample sizes and the only real concerns I have from the above are Starshiba's 1 from 7 on standard to slow and Two Tempting now being 7lbs higher than a course and distance win by a neck two starts ago.

The place stats don't actually help to clear things up. If anything they muddy the waters further by showing that this might well end up being rather competitive, see for yourself...

I think we'll put that to one side and have a look at our Draw Analyser of past similar races to see if any of these might have been handed an advantage by stall means of stall allocation...

...and whilst it's not the biggest draw bias you'll ever see, the inference is that you'd want to be in the lower half of the draw here, whilst our Pace Analyser says that those races above have benefited those most willing to set the tempo...

...so we're looking for runners keen to get on with things and this is how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...and I think that I want 2.50 to be my cut-off point here, especially as all those below that line have been held-up at least once in their last four outings. If I then order the top seven from that chart into draw order and over lay the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...where we've ended up with seven of the eight lowest drawn being the seven with the best pace profile from the race.

Summary

I'm happy at the way we've ended up with seven runners to consider from thirteen and the process is robust, but with the bookies only paying four places, I have to get rid of at least three and I think that Bottom weight and possible leader Venetian is the weakest of the seven. he has been well beaten in three of his last five runs (all defeats) since winning narrowly at Wolverhampton back in November 2022 and is still 2lbs higher than that win, so he's a no from me.

Of the rest, there's only really Million Thanks that I wouldn't be too keen on. He has won just one of sixteen to date and is on a run of thirteen defeats, six of which represent his entire A/W career, although he has been a course and distance runner-up twice this year. He has been beaten by 6 lengths or more in three of his last five, so he's out of my reckoning too.

Which leaves us with five runners for four places and I think all five have a good chance of making the frame. In card order and using Bet365's odds as of 5.10pm Tuesday (the only book open)...

...my initial response would be to (a) be a little disappointed that all my possibles are at the sharper end of the market and 9b0 place a small E/W bet on First View. He's down in class, scores well on Instant Expert and could be dangerous off today's mark.

The one that I think will win is Two Tempting, he's still progressing well and with a win and four runner-up finishes from his seven runs those season allied to finishes of 14221 in five handicap efforts over course and distance, he's sure to be there or thereabouts, so another small bet at a fair price of 9/2 is in order here. I've absolutely nothing against backing any of Owl Island, Florida or Endless Power for a place either, other than I'm not keen on going that short in the market for such a bet, but I'd not be surprised to see them in the frame.

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/07/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Yarmouth
  • 3.30 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Haydock
  • 7.35 Kempton
  • 7.40 Bellewstown

...and of the four UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is the 7.35 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-dmile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Kingori has two wins and a place from his three starts so far. Rhythm N Rock, Tiempo Star and Ashky have all won two of their last seven, but four of the field (Naval Commander, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) have lost at least seven on the bounce (7, 8, 8 & 11 respectively!)

Naval Commander does at least drop two classes here, as does Ashky, whilst Smiling Sunflower is down one with Kingori, Bruno's Gold and He's A Gentleman going the other direction.

This will be a UK debut, yard debut and handicap debut for Lion's Mane, as well as a return from a lengthy (233 days) absence, but Kingori (also on hcp debut) and the consistent Flyawaydream have been away longer (258 & 280 days). This is also a first run for Naval Commander with a tongue tie and Ashky in cheekpieces.

All bar Lion's Mane, Flyawaydream and Smiling Sunflower have won over today's trip, but the latter has at least won over 7f here at Kempton before, whist Naval Commander scored here over 1m3f. Four of the field (Rhythm N Rock, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) are former course and distance winners.

I said that this race had the most Instant Expert data from the 'free' UK races, but that doesn't mean it's good news...

...but it might help to rule some out.

Fantasy Believer is probably best suited, as he's the only one with no red blocks for either going, class, course or distance, but I've concerns over Naval Commander and Billy Mill generally and the field's lack of Class 4 success, although a few of them do actually have decent place records at this grade...

Billy Mill looks a different animal on place stats and if I was being brutal, I'd probably be focusing my attention on these five, just on that place data...

That's not to say the the winner and placers (bookies will pay four places here) are definitely in that five (we'll soon see), but you'd have to say they look more likely based on the numbers, but we've a big field here and the bare data from the Draw Analyser suggests that Two Tempting and Billy Mill might have a job on their hands from out wide...

...and the stall by stall stats would appear to back this up...

The associated pace/draw heat map, however, seems to set more stall on the pace of the race rather than the draw...

...and that will be because the pace analyser says...

So, we really don't want a hold-up horse and ideally we get one who could lead from a high or even low draw. If we look at the field's last four runs from a pace perspective, sort them into draw order and attach them to the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...with no standout runner. What I think might happen here is that the consistent Flyawaydream might try to nick this race from the front and attempt to make all. He's a natural front-runner, who has yet to finish outside the first three home in any of his six starts and has won under today's jockey, so I'll add him to the five who looked most likely to make the frame from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've left myself with six runners (Tiempo Star, Two Tempting, Billy Mill, Kingori, Fantasy Believer and Flyawaydream) for four places and whilst I think that Kingori and Fantasy Believer might well be the pick of the bunch, I'm not rushing out to back them at 4/1 and 13/2 respectively. I think both have an excellent chance of making the frame, but those odds aren't E/W odds for me.

The same would therefore apply to Tiempo Star and Flyawaydream at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, leaving me with just Two Tempting at 15/2 and Billy Mill at 10's. And whilst these two are probably the weakest pair of the half-dozen under consideration, it only takes one or two of the principals to fail to fire and you've got yourself a nice E/W bet. It wouldn't be big stakes here, but a small interest bet would work.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/06/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 2.35 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Curragh
  • 7.10 Ripon
  • 8.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

The best of the free/TS report races seems to be the one featuring William Haggas' Ecucator on the All-Weather and whilst the field is a bit bigger than I'm generally comfortable with, there's always the prospect of a decent E/W bet with most bookies paying 4 places (Sky go 5, of course!) in the 8.25 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Second Slip is our only LTO winner, but he hasn't raced in over 21months and might be a little rusty here, as might Winterwatch, Enthrallment, Graphite and Moving Lights after respective breaks of 231, 244, 247 and 312 days, as they take on nine others who have all been seen in the last six weeks.

Form-wise, Educator, Tashi, Winterwatch, Enthrallment and Dal Mallart all made the frame on their last outing, whilst of the 14-strong field only Savvy Knight and Tashi are winless in seven (or 11 in Tashi's case!)

Ten of the field ran at this level when last seen with Dal Mallart stepping up from Class 4 and top-weight Stay Well, Moving Light and Celtic Art all coming down from Class 2. Second Slip had wind surgery during his long lay-off and now ears a tongue-tie for the first time and this will be Enthrallment's first run for Kevin de Foy after leaving Ireland and Dermot Weld behind.

Winterwatch has won here over two miles (on his last A/W run) and over this trip at Catterick, whilst Second Slip, Graphite Savvy Knight, Celtic Art and Neandra also have 1m4f successes under their belts, whilst our two other former course winners, Stay Well and Moving Light have both scored here over track & trip.

Instant Expert then adds to those stats by showing that nine have already raced on standard to slow surfaces, producing wins for four of them and we also have six Class 3 winners on Flat/AW...

The top two on the card are the ones initially catching the eye here, but Winterwatch's two going wins is interesting too and I suspect we'll learn more from the place data...

...from which, I think I want to focus on...

I'm aware that such a brutal cut early on might have cost me the winner or a placer, but in these bigger fields, I only really want horses with relevant past form. This six are spread across the track in stalls 2, 3, 4, 8, 10 & 12 on a track/trip with no huge discernible draw bias...

...although some of the lower drawn horses have fared best...

...which would be better news for Stay Well than it would be for say, Winterwatch.  And as regard for pace, there's very little between the six based on their last four outings...

.and with the whole field's pace scores looking like this...

...we're likely to get a falsely-run race over a course and distance where those brave enough to take it on have done well in the past...

Summary

I pick these races 'blind' and do the analysis as I go along, so I never know where we're going to end up and here we've ended up in the state of inconclusive!  The only LTO winner hasn't run for ages and most of these have a fairly recent win. Instant Expert gave me a shortlist of six based on place form and pace/draw didn't really help us at, so in these cases, you either walk away (smart move) or you use that unquantifiable extra factor : 'gut feeling'

My gut feeling tells me that I want to be with Stay Well and Winterwatch depending on price and that Moving Light from the Shortlist might go off and set the pace and hope to hold on for a top four finish. I'll be back later (just after 3pm now)when there are some odds to look at.

Now approaching 4.30pm and we've got odds from Hills, who have installed Stay Well as the 9/2 favourite and whilst I think he could be the one, I'm not really interested at that price. Winterwatch and Moving Light, however, are at 9's and 12's respectively and could be the E/W play(s) here.

Educator from the TS report is 2nd fav, but has never raced on the A/W, so 11/2 is a bit short there for me, but 8/1 is interesting about the LTO winner Second Slip. Yeah, he's been away for a good while, but his A/W form reads 3121 so he could be another candidate for the frame.

This race could get very interesting in the closing stages, but it's not one to hang your hat (or your wallet!) on.

Racing Insights, Monday 01/05/23

/in /by

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Kempton
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.40 Kempton
  • 3.47 Warwick

And of the three UK races above, I'm going with the 3.40 Kempton, as it has the widest variation in pace profiles, as you'll see shortly. The race itself is a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles (although rail movements do add another half furlong to this) on good ground...

Latitude and Duc de Beahchene both won last time out and both have finsihed 321 in their last three outings and they bring the best form to the table. Hiway One O Three has been in the frame in each of his last four, but Kap Auteuil has been pulled up in four of his last five.

Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three both step up a class from Class 4 runs in the last three weeks, but Danny Kirwan and Dorking Ladwere both last seen at Class 1, failing to complete the race.

Twenty Twenty os our sole course and distance winner, but Danny Kirwan(2m NHF), Dorking Lad(2m5f Chs) and Up The Straight (2m5f Hrd) have also won here at Kempton, whilst only Danny Kirwan, Dorking Lad, Kap Auteuil, Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three have yet to win at this kind of trip.

Most of the field have been out in the last two months, but Danny Kirwan, Fogot To Ask and Twenty Twenty have been off for ten weeks, five months and one year respectively.

Instant Expert tells us that Hiway One O Three has never raced at Class 3, but that all bar Good Boy Bobboy of his rivals have a Class 3 NH win under their belts. We also see below that only Movethechains and Duc de Beauchene are yet to win on good ground...

The only alarm bells I get from the above are with the trip not suiting Sporting John and Forgot To Ask and that Duc de Beauchene, Movethechains and Hiway one O Three are now rated some 11, 9 and 7 pounds heavier than their last win with both Latitude and Danny Kirwan 6lbs up. Those stats above relate to all NH form, but let's also have a quick look at chasing place form...

...which would suggest that Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty might well be the half of the field to focus our attentions on in a race that has in the past tended to suit those setting the pace...

...with those travelling further back having decreasing chances of both wins/places, the further off the pace they have travelled, which brings us to our daily feature : PACE. We monito and log the running style of every runner and award a score of 1 to 4 for each run, where 1 = held up, 2 = mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4= led or in leading group and our field's last four outings look like this...

Summary

I felt that the half of the field I wanted to be with was (alphabetically) Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty and the pace stats suggest we want to be as forward as we can and my selected half dozen have average pace scores of 3.25, 2.50, 1.25, 1.50, 1.25 and 1.75 from which I'm now only really interested in Danny Kirwan and Latitude as potential winners and it's no surprise from the stats etc above that they're 1 and 2 in the market.

They both last won at Class 3, they're both 6lbs higher than that win, but Latitude is three years younger and clearly progressive whilst unexposed over fences, having made just four starts, but finishing 3321 culminating in a win on chase handicap debut. Danny Kirwan is no mug, though and he has made the frame in half of his eight starts over fences, winning twice, but he's older, might need a run after ten weeks off and did look tired and beaten when falling two out at Ascot last time out.

I think Danny Kirwan will run his race and go well here, but I expect the market to have this right and Latitude (10/3) should beat Danny Kirwan here (5/1) and hopefully we'll get a forecast too. The rest look much of a muchness, but Duc de Beauchene (8/1) and Good Boy Bobby (also 8/1) might be the best of them. Bookies are paying four places here, so they might be E/W options.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/04/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Nottngham
  • 4.25 Nottngham
  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 7.15 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners for me to consider...

...but as I don't really do the Flat in April nor Irish racing at the best of times, I'm self-restricted to picking a race from either Kempton's A/W card or the jumps meeting at Southwell and it's to the former I go, as the 7.30 race featuring Ivan Furtado's Moai is the highest rated of the race I have TS report qualifiers in. In fairness, I'm fairly sure that Moai stands little/no chance of winning the 7.30 Kempton, but hopefully there's still a bet for us from this 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

My starting point is always the card itself as it gives us an easy/gentle introduction to the runners and the five aspects I consider first are...

FORM : Arctician is the sole LTO winner and comes here on a hat-trick, having made the frame twice before a pair of wins. Golden Sands and Intercessor both won two starts ago and both have made the frame in three of their last four with the latter winning twice. Tollard Royal, Darwell Lion and Fantasy believer are the only others with a win in their last five outings, as all three won five starts ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers here, as one (Golden Sands) steps up a class, whilst six (Spinaround, Rhythm n Rock, Darwell Lion, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Cliffs of Capri) all drop down one level, whilst one (Spirit of the Bay) raced two grades higher at class 2 LTO.

WHAT'S NEW? : Featured horse Moai wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst Longlai makes a first run for Michael Wigham's yard after leaving Richard Hannon, having won just two of fifteen.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar five (Spinaround, Darwell Lion, Moai, Longlai & Intercessor) have already won here at Kempton, whilst all bar the in-form Arctician have won over a one mile trip. Six of the field (Tollard Royal, Rhythm n Rock, Spirit of the Bay, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Golden Sands) are former course and distance winners.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Six of these (Cliffs of Capri, Darwell Lion, Arctician, Moai, Fantasy Believer and Spinaround) have all raced inside the last four weeks. Golden Sands has been off for six weeks and Hieronymous for almost two months, but five of these (Rhythm n Rock, Intercessor, Spirit of the Bay, Tollard Royal & Longlai) migfht well need the run after layoffs ranging from 145 to 279 days.

The above helps me build a pros and cons list for each runner and then I check their performance on similar going/class/weight via INSTANT EXPERT...

...which based on win stats would appear to favour runners 2 to 8. Arctician seems to have struggled on the slower A/W track here at Kempton, whilst Golden Sands' numbers are at least not in the red and it may well be this inside-drawn runner might be more of a placer than a winner, so let's check the place stats too...

...where again the top half of the field (2 to 7 actually) look strongest, but Arctician's Kempton numbers do include 4 places from 7 and Golden Sands looks well set for a decent run under these conditions, but will stall 1 be a help or a hindrance, as my next port of call is...

THE DRAW : where there appears to be a definite advantage in being drawn low if you look at the graph, but the actual numbers aren't really that far apart...

...and whilst those drawn closest to the rail might well have that advantage on paper, it's likely to boil down to how they use their stalls position and that's why we need to consider...

PACE : with those races above favouring those racing furthest forward...

Based on this field's most recent outings, Golden Sands and Intercessor look like being the ones trying to blast out (from stalls 1 and 13 respectively!) early to vy for the lead with Moai, Spirit of the Bay and Cliffs of Capri the early back markers...

Now although a low draw and a leading position are the two generally favoured options, the HEAT MAP says that high drawn leaders have gone best of all here. This is possibly due to those drawn lowest getting cramped for room on the turn, but they have still won more than their fair share here...

And when we apply that heat map to out racecard in draw order, the two front-runners at either end of the draw come up very favourably indeed...

Summary

I think that the top two in the market, Tollard Royal (best priced 5/2 at 5pm) and the 5/1 Arctician are probably the best runners in the race and if I was to suggest one of those, it'd be the in-form Arctician. The fav could well need a run after 204 days off track and it has been 18 months since an A/W run and that might just be the difference. Both are drawn in the same draw sector with similar pace profiles, so I'd be siding with the longer-priced form horse today.

I'm not massively confident, mind, so it'd be small stakes on Arctician and I'm more interested in the two pace horses from each end of the stalls. They're sure to go off quickly and might well grab themselves a decent, soft lead early doors. Both are in decent nick, both are priced attractively at 18/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair paying four places. so both Golden Sands and Intercessor could be decent E/W bets here. The latter has, of course been off the track for nearly six months, so that might reduce his chances, but he has previously won after a 353-day break and both of these receive weight from the rest of the field.

As for feature horse, Moai, not finishing last would be an achievement here!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/03/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Lingfield
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.45 Newcastle
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with James Fanshawe's sole entry above running in one of our 'free' races, I think I should attempt to assess the chances of Novel Legend in the 8.00 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed two miles on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Blazeon Five, First Emperor, Sarsons Risk and Novel Legend were all runners-up with the first three of that quartet winning two of their last five. Hydroplane & Vazir both won three starts ago, but Grandmaster Flash has eleven defeats on the bounce and hasn't made the frame in his last six.

None of this field raced at a lower grade last time out with Blazeon Five, Grandmaster Flash and fast-finisher Novel Legend all running at this Class 4 level. First Emperor was second at Class 3 with Vazir unplaced at that grade, Hydroplane was third at Class2, whilst Sarsons Risk was a faller in a Grade 2 hurdle, having won a Class 4 contest previously.

Hydroplane and Grandmaster Flash have both won over today's trip in the past with Blazeon Five and First Emperor having scored over this track & trip. As for results on standard to slow going and/or at Class 4, Instant Expert helps us to fill the gaps...

...where aside from indifferent results at this grade, Blazeon Five and First Emperor are the ones to catch the eye. The place stats are useful here, as they suggest that Blazeon Five might not actually be a blow out at Class 4, having finished 1222 in his last four efforts at this level...

At this point, I'd be making a mental note that the out of form pair, grandmaster Folash & Vazir should be discounted from my thoughts and I'd have doubts about First Emperor being good enough to run at this grade.

In a smallish field over two miles, the draw really shouldn't be able to make or break a runner's chance, so this aspect of the toolkit is probably not as important as usual, but for clarity/transparency, we should take a look anyway...

I wouldn't read too much into the suggestion there's a low draw bias here, as the figures are very much skewed by a disproportionate number of winners from stall 1 and my thoughts are that the actual tempo of the race would dictate who goes best. For the record, those races above have been won by horses running as follows...

With mid-divisional to prominent runners faring best of all. We can look back at this field's last few runs to see how they might approach this one...

..but with many of them wanting to run in that mid-division zone, it doesn't actually help us solve the riddle.

Summary

When the draw and pace stats can't help us, then I generally fall back upon recent form and Instant Expert's suitability overview and if that's what I do here, the obvious choice to me is Blazeon Five, with three wins and three runner-up finishes from his last six. Four of those have been over course and distance where his form reads 1122 and whilst not wanting to disparage his previous riders, the booking of William Buick looks a positive move.

At 5.30pm Blazeon Five was 11/4 joint fav with featured horse, Novel Legend and I prefer the former to the latter. The latter has every chance of making the frame here if showing no rustiness from a five month break and they'll probably be the first two home. No E/W suggestion here.