Tag Archive for: Marco Botti

Kalpana takes September Stakes step to ultimate Arc aim

/in /by

Connections of Kalpana admit their Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe favourite faces a far from straightforward task in her bid for back-to-back victories Saturday’s Unibet September Stakes at Kempton.

Andrew Balding’s filly landed this Group Three prize en-route to success on Qipco Champions Day last season and while she has failed to get her head in front since, she has performed admirably to secure podium finishes in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, the Pretty Polly Stakes and the King George this term.

With the four-year-old being targeted at Europe’s premier middle-distance contest at ParisLongchamp in just over four weeks’ time, owners Juddmonte have warned she is not at concert pitch for Saturday’s assignment in Sunbury and in Hong Kong Vase winner Giavellotto she faces a serious rival.

“Hopefully she’s in good form and Andrew is happy with her, but it is a prep for the Arc and I think Andrew stated the other day that while she’s fit and well, she’s not been trained for this race,” said Juddmonte’s European racing manager Barry Mahon.

“It’s a stepping-stone towards the Arc and she had a hard race in the King George. She’s in good form and we’re hopeful that she’ll run a good race, but we have an eye on October and that’s the big day.

“In some years you can turn up for this race and it could be a 115-rated horse against plenty of 90-rated horses, but this year it’s definitely not that. Giavellotto is a top-class horse, he’s showed that season in, season out for the last few and he’ll be a tough nut (to crack).

“As long as our filly can run a good race and she shows she’s in good form, we’ll be happy and we’ll kick on to Longchamp.”

Trainer Andrew Balding is hoping to saddle Kalpana in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Trainer Andrew Balding is hoping to saddle Kalpana in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Mike Egerton/PA)

Balding is keeping his fingers crossed Kalpana can secure a confidence-boosting victory.

“They have been three really good runs this year, but she is yet to win a race and it would be nice to get the ball rolling and get back on track with a win to tee us nicely up for Paris in October,” said the Kingsclere handler.

“The Arc is one of the most important races in the calendar. Juddmonte were lucky enough to win it last year (with Bluestocking), and they have won it twice with Enable, along with plenty of other good horses, so they are no stranger to success in it, but I’ve never had a runner in the race.

“It is a privilege to train for them, and you have always got a chance of getting a good one as they breed such good horses.

“However, we still have plenty of water to go under the bridge between now and then, but the first step is Kempton Park at the weekend.”

Giavellotto has not been seen in competitive action since finishing third behind Jan Brueghel and Calandagan in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in early June.

His trainer Marco Botti said: “He’s been in good order and when we looked at the time of year and the ground is probably going to be on the easy side, which is not what he wants, we thought we’d take our chance in the September Stakes.

“He actually ran once at Kempton and won as a two-year-old and he’s also won at Newcastle, so he’s two from two on the all-weather.

“We obviously missed the Princess of Wales’s Stakes (at Newmarket in July) because he had a bad scope, so we just gave him a little bit more time as our main target is still Hong Kong and it’s a long season.

“I would say he should be pretty for fit for the race on Saturday and he’s shown his best form when he runs fresh anyway, so that’s definitely not a concern.”

Giavellotto has been an excellent servant to Marco Botti
Giavellotto has been an excellent servant to Marco Botti (Joe Giddens/PA)

On the prospect of facing Kalpana, the Newmarket-based Italian added: “She’s a very good filly and in the past this has been a good prep race for the Arc, so I can see why they’re taking that route.

“But we’re looking forward to seeing our horse back in action and we can make a plan then where we run next. He might or might not run again before Hong Kong. We have entered him in the Arc, but I never really felt he would get his ground in France at that time of the year.

“We’ll take it a step at a time, but it wouldn’t be worry me if after this race we keep him fresh and well for Hong Kong. All those things will be considered after the race.”

The Unibet Sirenia Stakes is the other Group Three on the card with a 10-strong field headed by the Charlie Appleby-trained Beckford’s Folly, who has won two of his three starts so far.

Unsatisfactory scope scuppers Giavellotto’s Newmarket defence

/in /by

Last year’s winner Giavellotto is a notable absentee after just six horses stood their ground at the confirmation stage for the Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket on Thursday.

Marco Botti’s stable star was a decisive winner of the Group Two feature on the opening day of the July Festival last season and rounded off his campaign with top-level success in the Hong Kong Vase.

Having finished a creditable third in last month’s Coronation Cup at Epsom, Giavellotto was being readied to defend his crown on the July Course before being scratched on Friday morning.

Marco Botti trains Giavellotto
Marco Botti trains Giavellotto (Mike Egerton/PA)

Explaining his absence, Botti said: “We scoped this morning, he had a few coughs and we weren’t happy with the scope. Tomorrow (Saturday) he was meant to be doing a piece of work and we felt he wasn’t going to be 100 per cent.

“It’s disappointing because this race has been in my mind for a long time and there’s not many left in the race, but on the other hand the horse’s welfare comes first and if we feel he’s not going to be 100 per cent, there is no point in going to the races.

“These things normally just take a few days and then they are OK and it’s just unfortunate that we’re so close to the race and were meant to gallop the horse tomorrow. We just felt it’s not the right thing for the horse to gallop with a little bit of infection, but I’m sure it will clear up soon.”

Botti is unsure where Giavellotto will make his next appearance, with a return to Sha Tin in early December top of his agenda.

The trainer added: “We have made an entry in a Group One in Germany in August and long-term we would obviously like to run him in Hong Kong, so we’ll work backwards from that.

“As the season goes on into the autumn another thing we have to bear in mind is the ground, because he doesn’t want it soft.

“He has an entry in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, but we made that entry a long time ago and I would say at this stage it’s not a race we’ll probably go for. All the other options will be considered and Hong Kong would be the priority basically.”

A small field is guaranteed for the Princess of Wales’s Stakes, with Charlie Appleby leaving in Arabian Crown and El Cordobes and John and Thady Gosden confirming both Military Academy and Palladium.

The other contenders are James Owen’s Wimbledon Hawkeye and the Clive Cox-trained Ghostwriter, who was last seen finishing third behind Godolphin’s globetrotting star Rebel’s Romance in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Maximized winning the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom
Maximized winning the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom (Adam Davy/PA)

Six entries have been made for the Group Three Bahrain Trophy, including Aidan O’Brien’s pair of Galveston and Scandinavia, with the former of particular interest after finishing third in the King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal meeting.

Andrew Balding’s Furthur, who came even closer to Ascot success with a close-up second in the Queen’s Vase, also features.

Nine juveniles are in the mix for what looks a strong renewal of Kingdom of Bahrain July Stakes.

Appleby could saddle Norfolk runner-up Wise Approach and the unbeaten Maximized, while Ed Walker’s Do Or Do Not also brings strong form the table having finished second in the Coventry Stakes.

O’Brien’s sole representative is Curragh maiden winner Brussels, with Eve Johnson Houghton’s Salisbury scorer Zavateri, Paul and Oliver Cole’s impressive Goodwood victor Jel Pepper and Hugo Palmer’s dual winner Tricky Tel others of interest.

Botti contemplating ideal path for Great Generation

/in /by

Following a couple of significant boosts to Great Generation’s form at the weekend, Marco Botti is trying to pick the best route to give him chance of further success with the filly.

Having won Lingfield’s Group Three Chartwell Stakes for the second successive year on her seasonal return, a step back up in class beckoned.

But having seen Jabaara win at Musselburgh and Spiritual bolt up at Epsom, with that pair both behind Great Generation, Botti may just be a little bolder with his planning.

“Obviously she’s a tough filly, but the seven-furlong trip is not an easy distance to make plans for as there are very few options,” said Botti.

“She’s in at Royal Ascot in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, but I’m not sure if we go there or wait for the July Cup, or we could wait for the City of York and there’s the Lennox at Goodwood. We want to improve her CV now. She’s won a few Group Threes, so we want to be placed in a Group Two or even a Group One.

“I don’t know if we’ll skip Ascot. The ground will be considered as she needs top of the ground. I think the stiff six furlongs of the July Cup, I wouldn’t rule that out as that will suit her.

“The Lingfield form is very strong with both Jabaara and Spiritual winning at the weekend. We were very pleased with her there.”

Botti keen on Princess of Wales’s repeat for Giavellotto

/in /by

Marco Botti is likely to lower Giavellotto’s sights with the defence of his Princess of Wales’s Stakes title now seemingly favourite for his next run.

The Hong Kong Vase winner finished a fair third in the Coronation Cup, with three individual Group One winners behind him.

Given he was beaten over seven lengths by Jan Brueghel and Calandagan, Botti feels Giavellotto might benefit from dropping back to Group Two level at Newmarket rather than tackling the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

“He ran his race. The ground on Friday was just on the easy side of good and Oisin (Murphy) said after the race that while it wasn’t soft ground, it wasn’t quick enough for him,” said Botti.

“He’s at his best on fast ground but that said, he might have only finished a couple of lengths closer, it didn’t make the difference between winning and losing.

“It was still a good run with Group One winners behind him and he gives his best all the time.

“I think we stay at a mile and a half but I said to the owner after the race that we had to be realistic. We were thinking about the King George but that might be a little ambitious and maybe we should go back to Newmarket for the race he won last year, the Princess of Wales’s.”

Monday Musings: Chinese Takeaway

/in /by

So Oisin Murphy didn’t stay home this autumn/early winter for a full English, but instead filled his boots with the ultimate Chinese takeaway, writes Tony Stafford. Oisin didn’t follow my suggestion he might challenge for the 26-times champion Sir Gordon Richards’ best of 269 in a single year, and stands marooned on 215 in the year of his fourth championship. Put another way, Oisin, you have only 23 titles more to go!

I’m sure he and his agent will be content with the £150k or so he picked up in Hong Kong yesterday, courtesy of a win on Giavellotto and fourth on The Foxes in his two rides on the richly-endowed Longines-sponsored card at Sha Tin racecourse. I expect it took Sir Gordon a fair few of his 4,870 winners to match Oisin’s haul over the 2min 27.53 secs of the Vase.

The Marco Botti-trained Giavellotto picked up £1.3 million and change for winning the Vase over a mile and a half. He had the William Haggas world traveller Dubai Honour two and a half lengths behind in second under Tom Marquand with Luxembourg, second to the Hong Kong supreme champ Romantic Warrior in the ten-furlong Cup last year, only fifth for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore.

Giavellotto can lay claim to being one of the most publicly underrated and indeed under-noticed of performers, if not by the handicappers who have him on 119. This year, he won the Yorkshire Cup over 1m6f at York in May and the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes over yesterday’s trip at Newmarket in July. He warmed up for his trip to the Far East with a third over 1m6f, three lengths behind the peerless Kyprios in the Irish St Leger in September.

As an entire he could presumably have been trained for the King George at Ascot in July and/or the Arc early in October – that’s already nine weeks ago! – and maybe next year his realistic trainer might give those races a whirl.

Italian-born Botti quietly goes about his business in Newmarket from where his 93 horses to run picked up 49 wins, 87 places and earnings of £921,714. Yesterday’s victory easily more than doubled that sum on its own.

The big day for Hong Kong racing also provides a showcase for its own champions and the afore-mentioned Romantic Warrior made it 17 wins worth almost £18 million in 22 career starts following a third successive victory in the Cup race with its £2.25 million to the winner prize.

Andrew Balding was rewarded for his enterprise in sending The Foxes to Hong Kong, the four-year-old finishing just under five lengths back in a lavish (£240k) fourth place under Murphy. The Foxes had beaten Dubai Honour when they met in Newcastle’s Churchill Stakes, appropriately so as he’s a colt by Churchill.

Romantic Warrior was almost unbackable but, to the Sha Tin and World Pool adherents, also just about unbeatable at 10/1 on and won as he and his rider liked, the identical price as Sprint winner Ya King Rising, that one less far down the road but getting there. He stands with nine wins from 11 starts. Ya King Rising won a shade cosily under Zac Purton, one of the regular top Australians that have made Hong Kong their own along with that race’s runner-up Hugh Bowman.

But it’s the New Zealand-born James McDonald who really has the game sorted. One of the leading riders in Australia for many years, he manages to organise his trips to Hong Kong to coincide with Romantic Warrior’s runs and has been on him for his past eight races, the last seven wins in a row starting with the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley in October last year.

They also won a Group 1 race together in Tokyo on June 2 this year, one of only four 2024 runs before yesterday. The son of Acclamation was sold as a yearling at Newmarket by his breeders Corduff Stud, fetching 300,000 Guineas to the bid of the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Peter Lau Pak Fai, his owner, will be eternally grateful that it was his number that came up when the annual ballot for owners and horses was enacted.

James McDonald also picked up the winning rider’s share of a second £2 million to the winner race on the 8/5 favourite Voyage Bubble in the Mile. Bizarrely, he was in the television booth when last month’s Melbourne Cup was being run, having no ride in the race, after which he set straight off for his regular Hong Kong stint. Even when he won the Melbourne Cup three years ago on the mare Verry Elleegant, his pickup from the £2,584 million first prize would not have matched yesterday’s combined bounty.

Saturday’s racing at home was massively affected by the latest hurricane to trouble our shores, ending hopes of Aintree staging the Becher Chase over the Grand National obstacles, in which Kim Bailey was denied a run for his smart emerging talent Chianti Classico.  Kim woke up on Saturday morning with two fancied runners each at Aintree and Chepstow and instead none got a run. Usually in the winter, when potential winning opportunities are withheld in this way, they only rarely get a suitable race to make up for it.

Jumps trainers must be getting so frustrated. The wet summer when the big horses weren’t generally in action proved difficult for the fast-ground regulars. Then as the early autumn became very dry, many trainers waiting for a first run for their good horses were understandably worried about sending them into action on quick ground.

Then came another very wet spell, with meetings lost and good-ground high-class horses also being put at a disadvantage.

Sandown survived on Saturday but surely it’s a reflection on these problems that the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown attracted a final field of four. These were the Dan Skelton-trained favourite L’Eau du Sud; two from Gordon Elliott, Touch Me Not and Down Memory Lane; and just one more from the UK, the Kieran Burke-trained Soul Icon, the 16/1 outsider.

L’Eau du Sud didn’t have as much to spare as when winning on comeback and chase debut by 11 lengths at Cheltenham, but this race has always been a decent guide to the Arkle Novice Chase at Cheltenham. He will be going there certainly as one of the best of the home team.

The money on offer for that race was 56k, 20k, 10k with more than five grand for the horse that brought up the rear. You wonder sometimes how owners that moan about prize money as I feel they are entitled to most of the time, explain a case like this when so few found their way to such a historic novice race. All the novice chasers in the UK cannot be rubbish, or can they?

An hour later it was the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase and Jonbon won this for the second year in succession for the McManus/Henderson/de Boinville team.

The Tingle Creek was worth almost twice as much as the Henry VIII, Jonbon picking up a few quid short of £100,000 for his eight-length defeat of Irish raider Quilixios. Two of the three remaining UK runners fell, including Edwardstone, so again each of those that did get round got a handy prize, around 40k, 20k with 10 grand for fourth.

It’s hard to believe with the recent flat season still so fresh in the memory that when my article appears in two weeks’ time, the days will be getting longer again. Some people are counting down to Christmas, but there may be many that will be sensing Cheltenham 2025 coming over the horizon. Three months? It’ll go in a flash!

- TS

 

Trainers with Three-Year-Old Runners, Part 2

/in /by

This is the fifth article in a series where I have been digging into the performance of trainers' runners of specific ages over the past few seasons, writes Dave Renham. I have used UK race data from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving us six full seasons to examine.

My focus in this second part of the series is on three-year-old (3yo) runners and, following on from my previous piece, I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all of the number crunching. All profits / losses have been calculated at Industry Starting Price. I appreciate most punters do not use SP these days as many (quite rightly) take advantage of early prices, Best Odds Guaranteed and / or the exchanges.

I looked in depth at non-handicap data last time; this time the focus is three-year-old runners in handicap races. Note, these could be three-year-old only or three-year-old and up handicaps.

All 3yo runners in handicaps

To start with let us overview all 3yo runners in handicaps before breaking the data down.

Here are the top 20 trainers in terms of strike rate with their 3yos in handicaps (minimum 150 runs):

 

Many of the usual suspects appear in the list but there are a few names - such as Chris Wall, Ron Harris and Heather Main - we have not seen prominently before. Eight of the 20 are in profit, which is surprising, but it will be interesting to see which of the profitable trainers have skewed figures due to one or two big-priced winners. In order to see whether this has been the case, the below table shows these eight trainers when their runners returned 8/1 or shorter. This takes any outliers out of the equation. Here are the figures:

 

Four of the eight have remained profitable, while three of the others were profitable to Betfair SP, with only Clive Cox remaining in the negative. Here are some individual highlights:

  1. Owen Burrows has a good record with his 3yo handicappers who are in the top three of the betting – 39 wins from 124 runs (SR 31.5%) for a profit of £39.73 (ROI +32.0%).
  2. Sir Mark Prescott has a decent record when using claiming jockeys. 13 wins from 43 (SR 30.2%) for a small profit of £9.94 (ROI +23.1%). His 3yo handicappers that wear cheekpieces have a surprisingly good record, too. 46 wins from 154 runners which equates to a win strike rate of just under 30%. They have returned an impressive 25p in the £.
  3. Marcus Tregoning has performed considerably better with male 3yo handicappers as compared to female ones. His male runners have won over 21% of their races; his female runners have won less than 10%. The each way figures are equally skewed (42% versus 27%). Tregoning has also done well with favourites, scoring 21 times from 51 (SR 41.2%) for a profit of £18.54 (ROI 36.4%).
  4. It looks best to ignore Charlie Fellowes if he is using a claiming jockey as only 2 of 37 such runners have won. On a more positive note, in the better handicap races of class 2 to 4 he has hit a 20.8% win strike rate for a profit of £137.48 (ROI +94.5%).
  5. Ron Harris and front runners have been a potent combination thanks to 27 wins from 81 runners. Compare his win strike rates for the different run style groups below:

 

 

A 3yo front-running handicapper for Harris is a horse we ought to be on!

In terms of A/E indices there are 19 trainers who have managed a figure of 1.00 or more (150 runs or more). They are shown in the graph below:

 

A/E, actual versus expected, is a measure of the value proposition of a 'thing', with a figure greater than 1 considered a plus. You can read more about it (and all the geegeez metrics) here.

These trainers have offered good value over the past six seasons with their 3yo handicappers. 11 of the 19 have secured profits to Industry SP; 14 were profitable to BSP. Ron Harris has the highest A/E value, at 1.31, followed by Roger Teal (1.26) and George Margarson (1.25). It's always good to see some new trainers, especially less familiar ones, on this list. Teal has a notably good record with favourites (8 wins from 19) for a 56p in the £ return, while Margarson, when teaming up with jockey Jane Elliott, has secured 14 wins from 62 for an outstanding return of 144p in the £.

 

Handicap races broken down by distance

Now let's break down trainer 3yo handicap runner performance by distance. I am going to look at sprint distances first.

3yos in handicaps over 5 to 6 furlongs

In the table below I have restricted it to trainers who have had a minimum of 75 runs or more, with the top ten in terms of strike rate shown:

 

 

Ed Walker tops the table so let's start with him in terms of some additional sprint handicap stats to share:

  1. All bar one of Ed Walker’s winners have returned single figure prices. His record therefore with horses priced 9/1 or shorter has been impressive – 38 wins from 146 (SR 26.0%) for a profit of £52.93 (ROI +36.3%).
  2. Ron Harris has secured a 22.5% win strike rate over 5f, but this drops markedly to 13.3% over 6f. Nevertheless, he has been profitable to follow over both sprint trips.
  3. Amy Murphy has an outstanding record with her fillies (female runners). She has had 12 wins from 48 runners (SR 25.0%) for a profit of £56.37 (ROI +117.4%).
  4. Andrew Balding’s runners have done well when they have been fancied. Combining his favourites and second favourites has produced 21 winners from 65 runners (SR 32.3%) for a healthy profit of £29.86 (ROI +45.9%).

3yos in handicaps over 7f to 1 mile

Onto 7f to 1 mile races next – here is a bar chart showing the trainers with the highest win strike rates:

 

 

At these Classic type distances, we're back to some of the biggest hitting trainers here and there are some strong individual stats to mention:

  1. The Gosden team have visited Yarmouth a dozen times with their 7f-1m 3yo handicappers and a remarkable eight have won.
  2. All 28 of Charlie Appleby’s winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. He is 0 from 18 (2 placed) from runners bigger than 8/1. Also his higher weighted runners (9st 1lb or more) have done well, with 27 wins from 84 (SR 32.1%) and a profit of £17.49 (ROI +20.8%).
  3. William Haggas has made steady returns of 9p in the £ with horses first or second in the betting.
  4. Andrew Balding has done well with his shorter priced runners. Those priced 3/1 or shorter have seen 41 wins from 108 (SR 38.0%) for a profit of £13.35 (ROI +12.4%).
  5. Clive Cox has an excellent record with favourites – 30 wins from 74 (SR 40.5%) for a profit of £20.61 (ROI +27.9%).

 

3yos in handicaps of 1m 1f to 1m 2f

Let’s check out the stats for 9 and 10 furlong handicap races now. A look at the top ten trainers in terms of win strike rate:

 

 

There are some impressive strike rates for handicap races with all ten trainers in the table hitting at over 18%. Four of the ten are in profit including the big guns of Stoute, Charlton and bin Suroor, while six have A/E indices of 1.00 or more.

It is worth noting that the Charlton stable has been profitable in five of the six seasons which shows excellent consistency. They have also managed a yearly strike rate of 19% on five occasions. Despite Saeed bin Suroor’s positive record, the last two seasons have been poor for him with just a single win from 20 starters in this distance range.

There are three trainers (Johnston, Hannon and Fahey) that have had over 400 qualifiers but their strike rates were not good enough to make the top 10. For the record here are those volume trainers' figures:

 

 

All three are well off overall profitability. However, Richard Fahey has done well with fancied runners over these trips. His first and second favourites have produced 27 winners from 82 (SR 32.9%) for a profit of £28.17 (ROI +34.3%).

3yos in handicaps of 1m 3f to 1m 4f

The final distance group to check out is 1m 3f to 1m 4f, as races of 1m 5f or more offers only a modest dataset with which to work. The top ten are shown below along with their strike rates:

 

 

A bigger proportion of these trainers are in profit with seven managing positive figures and it's good to see Marco Botti, William Knight and Alan King getting into the top 10 to freshen things up a little. A look at their A/E indices and Impact Values now:

 

 

Seven of the ten have A/E indices over 1.00 which is excellent, and with reasonable correlation, too.

 

Distance comparison – individual trainers

I thought it would be useful to end this article by comparing individual trainer strike rates across the four distance groups. To qualify for a figure, each trainer needs to have had at least 60 3yo handicap runners in the relevant distance group. Trainers that have had enough runners in at least three of the four distance ranges are shown. Hence any gaps simply mean that trainer did not have 60 or more runners in the distance group. The table is also colour coded with strike rates of 20% or more in red (hot); strike rates of under 10% in blue (cold) :

 

 

William Haggas is the only trainer to have secured a strike rate of over 20% in all four distance groups. Sir Mark Prescott has achieved that in three of the groups.

It is interesting to compare trainers in this way with some very consistent figures across the board (for example, Charlie Hills and Michael Bell); others vary quite a bit – William Knight, Alan King and Marco Botti being three who have both red and blue figures.

Few handicap races are easy puzzles to solve, and many 3yo runners are still developing and looking for their optimum distance. I hope the trainer statistics in this article help to point you in the right direction.

The final piece in this series will look at trainer performance with older runners. Until then...

- DR

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.