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Stat of the Day, 26th April 2016

Monday's Result :

3.50 Ayr: Sea Wolf @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Held up, headway 4f out, challenged 2f out, led over 1f out, pressed inside final furlong, headed towards finish, stayed on and only beaten by a head)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.40 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ilzam at 7/1 E/W BOG.

Why?

Firstly, his trainer, Marco Botti's record at this track in A/W contests over 6f to 1m stands at 29/181 (16% SR) for 39.4pts (+21.8% ROI) since the start of 2010, with 3 yr olds winning 16 of 80 (20% SR) for 57.6pts (+72% ROI), from which those running in 3yo only races are 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 63.2pts (+143.6% ROI)

Secondly, in the months of April to August inclusive, 3 to 5 yr olds travelling 5f to 1m2f on any ground bar heavy 16 to 60 days after a 2nd, 3rd or place finish LTO are 311/1699 (18.3% SR) for 304.9pts (+17.9% ROI) since the start of 2012, provided they actually won two starts ago.

And finally, the breeding. Ilzam is by Holy Roman Emperor whose offspring are a respectable 235/2264 (10.4% SR) for 181.4pts (+8% ROI) since the start of 2013, with those racing in handicaps over trips of 6 to 11.5 furlongs winning 131 of 1164 (11.3% SR) for 302.5pts (+26% ROI), whilst those handicappers aged 2 to 4 are 96/876 (11% SR) for 170.8pts (+19.5% ROI).

Holy Roman Emperor's offspring aged 2 to 4 in handciaps over 6f to 11.5f are 91/753 (12.1% SR) for 260pts (+34.5% ROI)

And the call is...a 0.5pt E/W bet on Ilzam at 7/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Betbright and/or BetVictor, who were the three market leaders at 11.10pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 29th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 29th October 2015

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Fakenham : Road To Freedom @ 100/30 BOG : 2nd at 5/2 fav (Held up towards rear, hampered 1st, headway 11th, ridden and pressed winner from 2 out, every chance until just held near finish) and was Lucy Wadham's only loser from three Fakenham runners, hopefully some of you took the hint and backed the others?

Thursday's selection runs in the...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grey Mirage @ 12/1 BOG E/W

Why?

Well, unless I've really read this race wrongly (too many r's!), this is a massive price and as part of my remit is to provide value, this fits the bill on that score.

But there is also some statistical data to back up my opinion. Firstly, I want to look at trainer Marco Botti and his record here on this A/W track and we find that since the start of 2010, his runners here priced in the 9/2 to 16/1 odds range have won 15 of 122 races (12.3% SR) for profits of 63.8pts at an ROI of 52.3%.

Of those 122 runners, those competing at trips of 6f to a mile are 12/86 (14% SR) for 79.1pts (+92% ROI), whilst his handicappers are 8/60 (13.3% SR) for 29.4pts (+49% ROI).

Also, we should consider the performance the performance of Signor Botti's handicappers who were winners last time out and are now returning to the scene of a previous course and distance win, as since the start of 2011, these runners are 12 from 36 (33.33% SR) for 8.75pts (+24.3% ROI) with a total of 25 of the 36 (69.4% SR) making the frame for similar profits of 8.72pts (+24.2% ROI), making these runners ideal for an E/W bet.

Jockey Oisin Murphy is in great form of late, riding four winners yesterday and he's 11 from 45 (24.4% SR) for 33.3pts (+74.1% ROI) here at Lingfield this year with a record of 7 wins from 22 rides (31.8% SR) on male horses that has produced profits of 22.3pts (+101.4% ROI).

And finally to the horse, Grey Mirage himself...

He has already won 7 of his 20 starts on the A/W  to date and is 7/19 at 7f to a mile, he's 7/18 on Polytrack, 5 from 15 at Class 2 and 4 from 11 here at Lingfield.

One Lingfield race was on turf, so he's actually 4/10 on the polytrack here. He has won three of the nine races of 12 or more runners and is as you probably deduced earlier, a former course and distance winner.

And in Class 2 races on the Lingfield A/W track over trips of 7f/1m, Grey Mirage is 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 6.44pts (+80.5% ROI).

And my recommended bet?

A 0.5pt E/W bet on Grey Mirage at 12/1 BOG with either Coral, Boylesports and/or Seanie Mac.

I've gone with Coral for the defeat by a head refund (would have been handy on Wednesday!), but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2015

Despite fluffing the start and being slow away, before running around a bit and wandering on the home straight, Always Smile showed a good turn of foot to win by almost two lengths at Wolverhampton at 11/4.

There has been some discussion about Betbright's pricing policy and whilst I got 16/5 BOG from them, some of you couldn't get it, some got more and some took 10/3 elsewhere. In light of this, whilst I'm happy enough to claim 16/5 for my records, I won't be quoting Betbright alone in future.

Buoyed by that win at Wolverhampton, I'm staying put for another crack at the Tapeta, more specifcally the...

4.30 Wolverhampton:

A 6f Class 4 contest and a 3/1 BOG bet on Marco Botti's handicap debutante, the 3 yr old filly Luna Mission, who was a winner here over course and distance last time out.

Since the start of 2010, Marco's 3yr old handicap debutants are 27/153 (17.7% SR) for 23pts profit  at an ROI of 15%. (8/27 here at Wolverhampton!).

Of those 153 runners...
Those running at trips of 6 to 8 furlongs are 19/71 (26.8% SR) for 53pts (+74.6% ROI) and
Those priced at 7/4 to 6/1 are 18/66 (27.3% SR) for 23.3pts (+35.3% ROI).

Marco Botti handicap debutants competing over 6 to 8 furlongs at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 are 17/45 (37.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+92.9% ROI) with a record here at Wolverhampton of 6 winners from 12 (50% SR) for 10.53pts (+87.75% ROI).

Luna Mission has had three runs to date, finishing third in each of her first two starts, both 6f maidens and beaten by 5L on debut at Kempton, before a 1L defeat at Yarmouth. She then ran here on the tapeta for the first time and was quite comfortable in winning by a length and a half over today's track and trip.

The form from that maiden has been franked by five of her rivals from that race going on to win since and provided there's no ill-effects from a 202 day absence, Luna Mission could well go in again, especially when you consider that since 2011, Marco Botti's handicappers with CD next to their name on the racecard, who were winners last time out, have gone on to double up on 12 of 33 occasions (36.04% SR) for 11.75pts (+35.6% ROI) profit.

Here at Wolverhampton, at odds shorter than 7/2, the record is 7/10 (70% SR) for 8.55pts (+85.5% ROI) profit. Impressive stuff.

The best price for Luna Mission is 3/1 BOG with Boylesports, Paddy Power and Betfair's Sportsbook. You can, therefore, take your pick by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.30 Wolverhampton

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day: Monday 15th December

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2014

No joy on Saturday for ourselves and Team Moore on a poor day for the yard at Lingfield on Saturday.

Tothemoonandback was travelling well enough and in contention until the 12th of 18 fences of the 3 mile trip. He made a mess of that one, lost some impetus/momentum and quite a bit of ground. Joshua cajoled and harried him back into the main pack, but that effort eventually took it toll and he soon dropped back through the pack.

He was eventually the last horse home at 8/1, faring only better than one Pulled-up runner. The Joshua/Gary Moore combo will win plenty more races, as will the horse, but Saturday wasn't their day.

My first glance at Monday's cards didn't exactly inspire me, so I went away, had an "enhanced coffee" and had a second look. The extra additives must have loosened a thought process, because we might just have one in the...

3.40 Wolverhampton:

Your first 30 days for just £1

And a 7/2 BOG bet on Marco Botti's 3yo Front Run, who tackles 1m6f for the first time in this 3yo+ handicap.

Marco's horses go really well on the All-Weather, notching up 229 wins from 1349 races since 2008. this impressive 17% strike rate has to date yielded 174pts profit at an ROI of 12.9%, which is a fantastic return from blind backing.

Here at Wolverhampton, his record is 104/489 (21.3% SR) for 158.3pts (+32.4% ROI), which isn't far short of phenomenal.

He also has a good record in these 3yo+ handicap contests with 60 winners from his 311 runners (19.3% SR) in the last six years. These winners have produced 61.4pts profits (+19.8% ROI) from 1pt level stakes bets at Betfair SP (the nearest approximation we have to BOG odds). His 3 yr olds in these open age handicaps are 44/210 (21% SR) for 67.6pts (+32.2% ROI), clearly taking advantage of the weight for age allowances given to them.

If we applied a simple 9/2 odds cap on those 3yr olds, we are then left with a record reading 35 winners from just 93 races (37.6% SR) and excellent profits returned of 36.5pts at an ROI of 39.3% with slightly better figures achieved here at Wolverhampton with 17 wins from 45 (37.8% SR) for 17.9pts (+39.8% ROI) profit.

Front Run was out of the first three home last time out, but although back in 4th place of the nine runners here over a mile and a half 16 days ago, he was only three parts of a length off the winner Heska who beat Moccasin by a nose that day. Moccasin reappears here today and I fancy Front Run to reverse the placings with our runner now 2lbs better off and doing all his best work late on last time, suggesting he'll be happier stepping up the extra 2 furlongs today and guess what, there's a sta to fit that too! 😀

3 yr old runners who were unplaced last time out and then stepped up by 2f or more for a Wolverhampton handicap have won 32 of 404 races in the last four years and whilst that 7.9% strike rate isn't earth shattering, the profits of 81pts (+20% ROI) are decent and good enough as a tertiary stat.

Of those 404 runners, the record with those running at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 shows 22 winners from 154 runners, a more palatable 14.3% strike rate with the 30.8pts profit also equating to 20% of stakes, allaying any fears that the stat was skewed by a couple of big winners.

Last time out was also Front Run's handicap debut, his first run for Marco Botti, his first run at Wolverhampton and in fact his first UK outing after three maidens in Ireland. He's clearly the east exposed runner here and would be more than entitled for having got all those "firsts" out of the way last time out.

He won't have it all his own way, but I've seen enough in the numbers to convince me about a 1pt win bet on Front Run at a widely available 7/2 BOG. I'm using Boylesports here today, but feel free to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Wolverhampton 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2014

No joy on Saturday for ourselves and Team Moore on a poor day for the yard at Lingfield on Saturday.

Tothemoonandback was travelling well enough and in contention until the 12th of 18 fences of the 3 mile trip. He made a mess of that one, lost some impetus/momentum and quite a bit of ground. Joshua cajoled and harried him back into the main pack, but that effort eventually took it toll and he soon dropped back through the pack.

He was eventually the last horse home at 8/1, faring only better than one Pulled-up runner. The Joshua/Gary Moore combo will win plenty more races, as will the horse, but Saturday wasn't their day.

My first glance at Monday's cards didn't exactly inspire me, so I went away, had an "enhanced coffee" and had a second look. The extra additives must have loosened a thought process, because we might just have one in the...

3.40 Wolverhampton:

And a 7/2 BOG bet on Marco Botti's 3yo Front Run, who tackles 1m6f for the first time in this 3yo+ handicap.

Marco's horses go really well on the All-Weather, notching up 229 wins from 1349 races since 2008. this impressive 17% strike rate has to date yielded 174pts profit at an ROI of 12.9%, which is a fantastic return from blind backing.

Here at Wolverhampton, his record is 104/489 (21.3% SR) for 158.3pts (+32.4% ROI), which isn't far short of phenomenal.

He also has a good record in these 3yo+ handicap contests with 60 winners from his 311 runners (19.3% SR) in the last six years. These winners have produced 61.4pts profits (+19.8% ROI) from 1pt level stakes bets at Betfair SP (the nearest approximation we have to BOG odds). His 3 yr olds in these open age handicaps are 44/210 (21% SR) for 67.6pts (+32.2% ROI), clearly taking advantage of the weight for age allowances given to them.

If we applied a simple 9/2 odds cap on those 3yr olds, we are then left with a record reading 35 winners from just 93 races (37.6% SR) and excellent profits returned of 36.5pts at an ROI of 39.3% with slightly better figures achieved here at Wolverhampton with 17 wins from 45 (37.8% SR) for 17.9pts (+39.8% ROI) profit.

Front Run was out of the first three home last time out, but although back in 4th place of the nine runners here over a mile and a half 16 days ago, he was only three parts of a length off the winner Heska who beat Moccasin by a nose that day. Moccasin reappears here today and I fancy Front Run to reverse the placings with our runner now 2lbs better off and doing all his best work late on last time, suggesting he'll be happier stepping up the extra 2 furlongs today and guess what, there's a stat to fit that too! 😀

3 yr old runners who were unplaced last time out and then stepped up by 2f or more for a Wolverhampton handicap have won 32 of 404 races in the last four years and whilst that 7.9% strike rate isn't earth shattering, the profits of 81pts (+20% ROI) are decent and good enough as a tertiary stat.

Of those 404 runners, the record with those running at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 shows 22 winners from 154 runners, a more palatable 14.3% strike rate with the 30.8pts profit also equating to 20% of stakes, allaying any fears that the stat was skewed by a couple of big winners.

Last time out was also Front Run's handicap debut, his first run for Marco Botti, his first run at Wolverhampton and in fact his first UK outing after three maidens in Ireland. He's clearly the east exposed runner here and would be more than entitled for having got all those "firsts" out of the way last time out.

He won't have it all his own way, but I've seen enough in the numbers to convince me about a 1pt win bet on Front Run at a widely available 7/2 BOG. I'm using Boylesports here today, but feel free to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Wolverhampton 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Sunday Supplement: Racing Dynasties (and Dynaste)

Perhaps the most famous of the Martalines

Perhaps the most famous of the Martalines

Sunday supplement

By Tony Stafford

It was always going to be a big weekend with the football returning. No, I won’t be kicking off here with that unexpected home defeat which will have gutted my man Steve. Yes, I’m afraid Thurrock’s 1-0 reverse in the Isthmian League North ends their 100 per cent start.

No, I’m going to tell a tale which illustrates just as starkly how one man’s delight in sport can often be another’s poison, in this case almost literally. Sam Sangster, principally through his video company Sirecam, but also his ownership syndicates under the umbrella name Decadent Racing, is already living up to the family tradition while still only in his mid-20’s.

Based at the family’s (for now at any rate) Manton Estate, Sam is exhibiting strong signs of following in dad Robert’s footsteps, even to the extent of exploring new markets for  unearthing equine talent. For the old man it was Kentucky and the products of Northern Dancer that tickled his, Vincent O’Brien and John Magnier’s fancy in the 1980’s.

Sam stayed nearer home for his voyage into the semi-unknown, coupling his contract to video yearlings offered at the 2012 Baden-Baden auction with a bargain buy, prompted by emerging trainer Hugo Palmer, whose Newmarket yard Sam’s company has sponsored since it opened a couple of years back.

Hugo sought out Sam at the sale telling him he’d seen a nice High Chaparral colt. Sam asked him how much it had been as a foal and when he told me the story yesterday morning, he recalled Hugo had said “25 <thousand, of course> Euros”. Sam said he replied “if you could get him for 30, I might be able to find some owners for him.”

Your first 30 days for just £1

So the horse came into the ring and Sam duly got stuck into bidding, which was admittedly sticky. “At 16k,” Sam recalls, “there was a pause and then he was knocked down to me”.

“As I was about to sign for him, a little Russian guy – I think he was Russian – came running up and said: “It’s my horse, I bought him!” to which the sales official said: “No, this man, Mr Sangster” to which the Russian dissolved into what could only be described as life-fearing panic”.

It seems the actual owner was possibly an oligarch or something more sinister, and the gentleman – presumably not the well-known Ronald Rauscher, the agent named in the catalogue as the consignor – was clearly terrified at the thought of having to explain the loss of nine grand in cold blood, not to mention the horse and the year’s costs since his acquisition in the same ring a year earlier.

Applications by Sam – a sensitive soul – to name the horse Mafia Boss were rejected by the BHA, but they allowed Knife Point (GER) and it was under that monicker that the now gelding, trained by Hugo, won at Catterick on Friday, making it five winners from the seven horses Sam has run this year under his Decadent Racing partnerships.

Knife Point was quite an interesting name, and maybe more than somewhat as Damon Runyon might say, as in actual fact the original foal price was not €25k but €30k! Wonder if the little guy still has his breeding tackle?

Sam just sent me through this year’s catalogue for the auction, which takes place at the beginning of next month, and if the action on yesterday’s first part of Deauville’s August sale is anything to go by, yearlings will be harder than ever to acquire.

Two years ago, my boss Ray Tooth bought a couple from the October Arqana sale. One, a filly called Laughing Water won on her second start for Nicolas Clement, while the other has turned up as a handsome three-year-old called Adrakhan in Dan Skelton’s showplace yard close to Stratford-on-Avon.

As with Sam, Dan is showing that it’s a young man’s game, and having not known him at all before yesterday, I’m now finding it easy to believe he’ll go right to the top. The genes were pretty favourable. As a son of Nick Skelton, just about Britain’s most famed show jumper of all time and a Gold medal hero from the London 2012 Olympics, he had a decent enough start.

His schooling for the job, apart from all those years with horses around him, was polished in his role as Paul Nicholls’ assistant and as he went through all the qualities of the horses in his now second-season yard at Saturday’s open day, he showed a combination of easy self-deprecation and copious knowledge of the 40 or so we saw, a good few paraded by brother Harry, the stable jockey.

Dan’s young wife Grace also plays a big part on the organisational side with dad no doubt seeing to the financials. Certainly a nice few bob has gone into the operation, but the fact that he was able to bring out so many owners on a Saturday afternoon – it meant they (and I) missed the Arsenal - Palace game – was a surprise, it seemed, even to him.

Having watched him working the crowd and handling the microphone, I’m far from surprised. It was nice that he was so complimentary about Adrakhan, Ray’s Martaline gelding. As Dan says, “We had quite a few Martalines at Paul’s and I always liked them”. I do too, with such as Dynaste to point to as examples of his ability to pass on the genes, which in Adrakhan’s case extend to five winning siblings, four over jumps.

The Skeltons have the main ingredient that characterises many of the top dynasties in racing. Early on I mentioned the Sangsters, and you could easily extend that to Aidan O’Brien’s family with four young children (two sons, two daughters) all now riding regularly on the tracks of Ireland, or the Moores.

Former and probably imminent champion Ryan was in Chicago last night, riding a double which included Adelaide for Aidan in the Secretariat Stakes and Euro Charline for Marco Botti (he, of the Italian training dynasty) in the lavishly-endowed Beverley D Stakes.

Joseph, too big for the 8st7lb Ryan managed on Adelaide, was comfortable enough on Magician in the Arlington Million, but the boys had to give best to 10-1 shot Hardest Cove. Third here was globe-trotter Side Glance, Andrew Balding’s veteran whose path to a £60k payoff was eased by the absence of his regular sparring partner Mull of Killough who had finished well ahead of him at Ascot on their previous encounter.

As I said, being on my way to deepest Warwickshire limited my grasp of world events, at the Oval, Newbury, Newmarket and on the football fields of England. I was just about able to glean that Joe Root is on the way to another century in England’s latest romp against India, while one of the two big boys who played on opening day won and another lost, unexpectedly. No doubt Man U made a winning start for the Dutch guy with the strange face/neck, while that grumpy Frenchman will have had another disappointing opening afternoon. When I wake up properly, I’ll check it out.

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2014

As suggested yesterday, Cool Baranca was indeed overpriced at 11/2 in what I said was a competitive contest and she didn't really do anything wrong, other than maybe a bit of a scruffy jump at the last. Emma Sayer seemed to have timed the run in perfectly but was just undone by a 14/1 outsider at the death, eventually finishing second at 7/2, going down by a length.

Defeats like that are actually quite encouraging, as it shows we're on the right track and we got the value from the selection. Consistently beating SP is the long-term route to profitability and I now aim to find some value in Wednesday's...

3.20 Lingfield

Where Martin Harley will ride Marco Botti's handicap debutant Bella Varenna in this Class 5 contest over 1m4f on the All-Weather.

Whilst not ripping up any trees of late, the Botti string are doing well enough with 3 winners and 4 placers from just 13 runners in the last 5 days, whilst jockey Martin Harley has been in the thick of things of late, winning nine times from 41 rides in the last fortnight, with 21 of the 41 making the frame.

The Harley/Botti partnership has performed well in handicap races in the past with a 23/99 (23.2% SR) record with all such runners priced at 10/1 or shorter. This in turn has produced 27.7pts (+28% ROI) profit and is a good starting point for the other stats I'm using to back up the selection today.

Today is Bella Varenna's handicap debut after a couple of maiden outings last autumn, before reappearing at Doncaster 12 days ago off the back of a seven month break. The tactic of giving her a handicap debut on the A/W is one used by Marco Botti to good effect over the years, as since 2008 he has employed this tactic on 94 occasions, racking up a 24.5% strike rate via 23 winners at Classes 4 and 5, which have in turn, generated 39.6pts profit at an ROI of 42.1%.

More recently ie since 2011, the figures are even better, suggesting that this is a strong trend that isn't relying on historical data. The actual results since 2011 read as 17 winners from 61 (27.9% SR) for 30.6pts (+50.1% ROI) profit.

These are encouraging figures, but even more if we look at what has happened in the past when the money has been down for them. If we ignore the short priced runners that we wouldn't normally back and also dispense with the longshots we have, since 2008, 14 winners from 48 (29.2% SR) when sent off in the 5/2 to 11/1 range and the 59.7pts profit from these runners equates to some 124.4% of stakes invested.

This will also be Bella Varenna's first outing on the All-Weather and Marco Botti has a good record when switching horses from turf to A/W for the first time, especially whilst the Turf Flat season is in progress. I have found that since 2009, his optimum time for switching them over is the March to November period and in that time frame, his record with runners priced between 6/4 and 16/1 is 12 winners from 67 runners (17.9% SR) for 18.8pts (+28.1% ROI) profit.

The switch to the all-weather is always a risk, but the yard has shown it works for them, especially to give the horse a handicap debut. Both the jockey, the trainer and jockey/trainer partnership are successful and there was enough promise shown on Bella Varenna's last outing to suggest she'll be winning races soon.

She was 4th at Doncaster almost a fortnight ago in what was her first effort in seven months and although she looked a little outpaced at times, she stuck to the task in hand and stayed on well enough, despite looking like she wanted/needed further. She's up in trip by another 1.5 furlongs here and I'd expect that will be more to her liking.

She looks overpriced at the 13/2 BOG offered by BetVictor and I can understand if there's a case for going E/W on her, especially with the recent excellent place strike rates achieved by both jockey and trainer, but I'm not generally one for shrinking away from a longer priced selection, so it's a 1pt win bet on Bella Varenna for me and I've taken that 13/2 BOG from BetVictor, but I don't expect her to run anywhere near that price.

The best way, of course, to keep in touch with the market, is to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 14th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th April 2014

It's rare for us to highlight a 10/1 winner on SotD and an even rarer occasion when I'm not entirely ecstatic to have done so, yet both of those events occurred on my first day back "in the chair" on Saturday.

I was torn between two runners both priced at 10/1 for my daily selection, Cubanita had several qualifying stats to support her nomination, yet after a fortnight away in Cuba, I felt it might have looked a little bit contrived to the neutral observer.

Of course, she won and my official pick Severiano ran somewhat below par (sorry!), having failed to get away quick enough to take advantage of an excellent draw.

Many of you backed Cubanita as well (as did I!) and recouped some of the recent losses we've endured, but the official SotD record will show another point dropped. March & April are difficult punting months, but our long-term (c.150pts in 29 months) success fills us with enough confidence to ride out the storm and get back amongst the winners.

This will hopefully start today in the...

5.20 Windsor:

It's a Monday in the Flat Season, so it has to be Windsor, where Marco Botti's sole runner anywhere today is the handicap debutant Lockedoutaheaven.

Windsor has been a happy hunting ground for Signor Botti of late and in the last two years his record here with runners priced at 8/1 or shorter reads 215116212131, that's 6 winners and 4 placers from 12 runners with a level stakes profit of 14.2pts (+118.33% ROI) to boot.

18.5pts profit is the return for E/W bets from those runners and whilst the E/W ROI is lower than the win bets, 77.1% is still a very good return on investment.

Marco Botti is also one of the best trainers at finding races for his horses to win on handicap debut: he has a near 28% strike rate via 38 winners from 136 attempts and these winners have generated profits of 64.3pts or 47.3% of stakes to date.

Lockedoutaheaven comes here on the back of three progressively improving performances in Wolverhampton maidens and was only narrowly beaten (SH) by an 8/13 shot last time out. His opening mark of 70 looks quite fair and his effort will be helped by a 5lb jockey claim which should make him very competitive here today.

6/1 BOG is currently available and I think there's enough juice in that price to take a safety-first E/W approach today, so I'm staking 0.5pts E/W on Lockedoutaheaven at 6/1 BOG with BetVictor for this one.

Bet365 are also offering 6/1 BOG, but for the full market...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Windsor

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Stat of the Day, 28th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2014

Join The Navy may well have been beaten by a head yesterday, but I just have to say that I thought upcoming jockey Kieron Edgar rode a brilliant race and came so close to pulling off what looked, for most of the race, an unlikely victory.

I don't know whether it was tactics or a result of the horse's reluctance to run, but our selection was well detached from the field for the best part of two miles, but these top weight stayed on strongly to such a point that he was level with the eventual winner at the last.

Maybe the opposing jockey rode out a slightly better finish or maybe the other horse was just a little bit quicker, but we got a very canny ride for our money. I know a 7/2 (from 4/1 advised) runner-up doesn't put meat on the table, but I enjoyed watching it nevertheless.

However, we're in the business of finding winners, so let's head to the West Midlands this evening for the...

7.05 Wolverhampton:

Trainer Marco Botti's record at Wolverhampton is very good...

Since the start of 2008:
91 winners from 432 runners = a 21.06% strike rate and the 88.82pts profit = 20.6% ROI.
43/199 in handicaps = 21.6% SR for 57.2pts (+28.7% ROI)
7/31 (22.6% SR) for 11.4pts (+36.7% ROI) at Classes 1 or 2.

Whilst, more recently ie since January 2012: 49 winners from 205 runners = a 23.9% strike rate and the 49.13pts profit = 23.97% ROI and Marco has just the one runner on this evening's card in the shape of the 4 yr old bay filly Magika, who will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni for this contest.

Andrea also has a decent record here at Dunstall Park, winning 40 of the 281 (14.3% SR) handicap events he has competed in, returning level stakes profits of some 101.74pts (+36.2% ROI) since 2008, whilst the figures from more recent times read 12/100 since the start of 2012 for 63.5pts profit.

When Messrs Botti & Atzeni team up here, they have an 18.5% strike rate (19/103) producing an ROI of 47.4% courtesy of 48.8pts profit from level stakes. They have excelled in handicap events like todays with 12 winners from 47 (25.5% SR) for 40.83pts (+86.9% ROI) profit.

Since Marco Botti only has one runner here, the jockey/trainer combination can only be seen the once this evening and in Magika, there's an excellent chance of improving those figures. In her 14 starts to date, she has won four times and been placed on two other occasions. Her 28.6% win strike rate has yielded 4.12pts to date (+29.4% ROI) with three of her unplaced runs coming at odds of 20/1 or higher.

Her other 11 runs have all been at under 10/1, where her 4/11 (36.4% SR) record looks very good indeed and the corresponding 7.12pts profit produces a healthy 64.7% return on stakes. She has won three of her last five starts and her record here at Wolverhampton reads 1114 (2 wins over C&D) and when Andrea Atzeni has ridden her in the past the form line looks like this: 14321.

All of which means I'd expect Magika to be there or thereabouts in this competitive contest this evening, but she's not actually that well fancied this morning in the markets with prices ranging from 5/1 to 7/1 at 9.00am. I expected her to be around the 5/1 mark, if I'm honest, so I'm taking the cautious approach of a 0.5pts E/W bet at 7/1 BOG on Magika this evening. I've gone with BetVictor for my bet, but Hills and Coral are both offering the same price, as you'll see for yourself when you...

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Stat of the Day, 18th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2013

Beatu was outstanding yesterday and defied a big drift in the market to surge home and win by a good six lengths easing down! He hit the front with a couple of furlongs to and within a furlong had pu the race pretty much to bet. AP drove him on and ran the chasing favourite into the ground before easing our mount down.

We'd advised a 7/2 bet and I thought that was good value. The market, however, disagreed and he drifted out to an SP of 6/1 (Betfair SP paid a massive 9.57!). Thank heavens for BOG!

Back to the All-Weather now for a Class 2 Handicap over 11 furlongs, postponed from last Wednesday, the...

6.20 Kempton:

It's the same race I put up last week and I'm sticking with the same selection! Some of the stats (if not all!) will have changed though.

Marco Botti's horses are in good form at present with 5 winners and 3 placers from 12 runners in the last fortnight, but followers of his methods will have come to expect this, as he generally does well in December.

He has a 11/35 record in handicap contests in the month of December with horses that we'd consider for SotD ie odds of a minimum 7/4 and above, but with a 12/1 cap. The 31.43% strike rate has produced 60.5pts profit to level stakes, a remarkable return of 173% above stakes invested, and he's already 2 from 5 this month, including today's selection Halfsin, who was a 10/1 winner over course and distance here a fortnight ago.

Halfsin was by no means Marco's first winner at Kempton this year, in fact he's had a great 2013 in handicap contests here, winning 13 of the 39 he's been represented in, a strike rate of 33.33% responsible for returning 32.7pts or 84% profit.

So, we know the yard's horses go well here and that they tend to fire in December and also that Halfsin was a course and distance winner last time out, but what else do we know about this horse?

He has taken quite well to the A/W surface here, having also finished third over C&D on his only other completed run at Kempton and he also has a decent record on the flat, with 4 wins and 2 places from 14. Today will be his twentieth trip to a track and he's still in that rare category of horses who have been profitable to back blindly over a reasonably large number of runs: 5.5pts at SP from 19 races = 28.95% ROI.

He's up 6lbs for that latest victory, but they way he was still pulling clear at the end of a race he'd dominated from start to finish suggests he'll be able to shoulder the extra burden, but the rise has been accounted for in his 9/1 price today. If he's allowed to dictate affairs again and get another easy lead, the rest of the pack could very well struggle to get past him.

He'll be aided and abetted by the in-form Martin Harley today and the jockey is absolutely flying at present. In the last fortnight alone, from the 46 horses he has ridden: 14 have been returned as winners (30.4% SR for 53pts profit at SP!) and a total of 21 have made the frame for a place strike rate of 45.7%. Martin has also won on four of his last eight rides here at Kempton, including a 2 from 3 return on his last visit six days ago.

I've a sneaking suspicion that Halfsin might be slightly overpriced here, but I'm going to play a cautious safety-first approach here with a 0.5pt E/W bet on Halfsin at 9/1 BOG with Hills. You should of course, do your own research and...

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Stat of the Day, 13th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2013

Yesterday's race was the proverbial handicapper's dream scenario as all 9 runners were only split by about 3 lengths from first to last.

Unfortunately, it meant, though our selection gave a decent enough performance to get within a couple of the leader, it actually meant we finished 6th of the 9.

He was still staying on at the end and wasn't disgraced, but it's a loss in the final analysis.

More A/W action today for us in the...

5.25 Wolverhampton:

December is the time of year when it pays to follow trainer Marco Botti, especially in handicap contests. In the month of December he has saddled up 9 winners from 31 in handicap races when priced between 13/8 (I don't like betting below this for SotD!) and 12/1 (my usual, but not set in stone, upper limit). The 29% strike rate from those runners has yielded 32.45pts profit, a return of almost 105%.

His yard is in great nick again at present with five winners from fifteen in the last fortnight.

Marco also has a very good recent record at Wolverhampton. In the last couple of years 30 of his 99 runners sent off at odds between 13/8 and 6/1 have gone on to win to produce a record of 30.3% winners and 42.6pts (+43% ROI) profit.

Just the one runner for Signor Botti today: unsurprisingly running in a December handicap at Wolverhampton! This is the 3yr filly Magika, who has been very consistent since her debut when she finished 11th of 14 at Kempton. Since that day, she has made the first four home in each of her subsequent nine efforts, winning twice, including her only visit here to Wolverhampton.

She comes here off the back of a two month break since winning on soft ground at Windsor over virtually the same trip as today and the firmer ground will take less out of her, which is just as well, since she shoulders a 6lb rise from that win, but still carries bottom weight here thanks to the 5lbs allowance, which could be vital.

The booking of Martin Harley could well be pivotal, Martin's riding really well at the moment with 7 wins from 19 in the last week alone, including a double on the Kempton card last night.

In fact his mount won yesterday's SotD race and Martin's record on the Botti horses this year has been excellent. If we go back to those 13/8 to 6/1 odds parameters again, the figures for the Botti/Harley combination read 19 winners from 60 (31.7% SR) for 28.7pts (+47.8% ROI) profit.

More notably they are 7/18 (38.9%) for 11.4pts (+63.5% ROI) here at Wolverhampton this year.

Magika is sure to attract plenty of attention today, running off a reasonable weight, thanks to her allowance and is likely to contest favouritism with Knockgraffon Lad, so I was reasonably happy to see her available at odds of 3/1, when I was expecting her to be 5/2 or even shorter.

So, my call to you is a 1pt win bet on Magika at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, but SkyBet, who now also offer BOG, are currently matching that price, so why not take the opportunity to...

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Stat of the Day, 11th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2013

No joy with our American angle yesterday as Hussar Ballad was a tad disappointing and never really got on terms.

Having taken an early 4/1, we beat the market by half a point, but after chasing the leaders to the pole, he was then ridden along in an attempt to challenge but he was already weakening with a furlong to go, eventually finishing 7th of 12.

I should, however point out that two of the races at Southwell were taken by USA horses at odds of 8/1 and 7/2, so there's still something there.

We stay on the All-Weather for a Class 2 Handicap over 11 furlongs, shown on your racecards as the...

6.40 Kempton:

Marco Botti's horses are in good form at present with 4 winners and 2 placers from 12 runners in the last fortnight, but followers of his methods will have come to expect this, as he generally does well in December.

He has a 10/32 record in handicap contests in the month of December with horses that we'd consider for SotD ie odds of a minimum 7/4 and above. The 31.25% strike rate has produced 56.4pts profit to level stakes, a remarkable return of 176.2% above stakes invested, and he's already 1 from 2 this month, as today's selection Halfsin was a 10/1 winner over course and distance here last Wednesday.

Halfsin was by no means Marco's first winner at Kempton this year, in fact he's had a great 2013 in handicap contests here, winning 12 of the 37 he's been represented in, a strike rate of 32.4% responsible for returning 27.6pts or 74.7% profit.

So, we know the yard's horses go well here and that they tend to fire in December and also that Halfsin was a course and distance winner last time out, but what else do we know about this horse?

He has taken quite well to the A/W surface here, having also finished third over C&D on his only other completed run at Kempton and he also has a decent record on the flat, with 4 wins and 2 places from 14. Today will be his twentieth trip to a track and he's still in that rare category of horses who have been profitable to back blindly over a reasonably large number of runs: 5.5pts at SP from 19 races = 28.95% ROI.

He's up 6lbs for last week's C&D victory, but they way he was still pulling clear at the end of a race he'd dominated from start to finish suggests he'll be able to shoulder the extra burden, but the rise has been accounted for in his 9/1 price today. If he's allowed to dictate affairs again and get another easy lead, the rest of the pack could very well struggle to get past him.

I've a sneaking suspicion that he's slightly overpriced here, but I'm going to play a cautious safety-first approach here with a 0.5pt E/W bet on Halfsin at 9/1 BOG. This price is widely available and I've used Bet365 for this one. You can choose to use a different firm whose prices can be seen when you...

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Stat of the Day, 29th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th October 2013

Lookoutnow ran pretty well for much of yesterday's contest and looked to have every chance approaching the penultimate hurdle, but he blundered quite badly at that one and lost all momentum. He struggled to get going again and was eventually brought home back in 7th place some 24 lengths off the pace.

Whether he'd have fared any better is unknown, there was still a fair chunk of racing to be done before the end and on this occasion the market was proven correct as our 4/1 shot drifted out to an SP of 6/1 via a price of 15/2 half an hour before the off!

Back to England for Tuesday's selection and a trip to the seaside where the...

4.10 Yarmouth

Revolves around Marco Botti and his horse Ticoz, who overnight, is a 3/1 BOG shot with Paddy Power and William Hill.

Marco Botti's yard is in good nick at present with 7 winners from 26 in the last fortnight and a 50% place strike rate, whilst his overall record at Yarmouth with runners priced at 8/1 or under reads 16 winners from 78 and the subsequent profit of 16pts means that both the strike rate and the ROI are a decent 20.5%

Marco Botti's record with horses aged 3 or over making their debut for his yard currently stands at 30 winners from 115 horses priced below 12/1. The 26.1% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 105.4pts, or 91.7% of stakes. 47 of those 115 horses had previously run for another trainer, with 13 (27.7%) of them scoring on their debut for the new yard, producing 45.35 (+96.5% ROI) profits to boot.

And one more set of stats for you, since 2010 Marco has had 8 winners from the 29 horses making their UK handicap debut priced at 8/1 or under. It is admittedly, a relatively small sample size, but it would be foolish to ignore a strike rate of 27.6% and profits of 18.15pts, or 62.6% of stakes.

Ticoz is an 8 yr old veteran of 42 races and has come over from Germany, where he has been running pretty well of late, winning once in his last five outings and making the frame on three other occasions.

There's not actually a great deal else to tell about this one, other than I don't see him struggling to get 1m6f, as his last run was over 2m 1f when second at Frankfurt last time out and was third at this trip (Hamburg) the time before that.

He has achieved a Racing Post Racing of 103 in the past and as such an opening UK mark of 47 looks a little on the lenient side for a horse who goes well on soft ground.

Incidentally Ticoz will be wearing a tongue tie for this race, just as 67 of Marco Botti's runners have this year. 18 of those 67 (26.9%) have won, resulting in profits of 45.1pts (+67.3% ROI). With a 12/1 odds cap imposed, the figures are 17/51 (33.33%) for 41.5pts (+81.5%) with an impressive 13 winners from 23 runners priced at 4/1 or under generating an excellent 20.4pts profit, equivalent to 88.7% of stakes.

Martin Harley takes the ride today and he has done really well on the more favoured (ie 6/1 or under) Botti horses this year, winning 17 (39.5%) of his 43 races for a level stakes profit of 32.55pts (+75.7% ROI)

There's obviously no collateral UK form to talk about, but the whole host of stats supporting the selection have made me confident enough to stake a 1pt win bet on Ticoz at 3/1 BOG with William Hill. This price is currently also available at Paddy Power, so you can take your pick when you...

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***NB, a 15% rule 4 deduction was applied at 0815 this morning, rendering our 3/1 bet down to 2.55/1 and the best BOG on offer is now 5/2.***

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P.S. Ticoz was born on the same day as my youngest daughter, but I promise that I didn't consider that particular stat when making my selection, although I'm sure she would approve! 😀

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2013

It seems that my error in yesterday's post went unnoticed, as Anglophile was actually ridden by Mickael Barzalona for Charlie Appleby and they proved to live up to their fearsome reputation at HQ. Between them they had two winners and a 4th placed finish.

Unfortunately, for us, we were on the horse that finished 4th. I did, however manage to beat the market quite comfortably, having taken 13/2 about a 3/1 favourite.

For the record, I said Silvestre de Sousa was on board, but he actually rode Devilment for Charlie Appleby in the same race, finishing second. So we'd have lost either way round, I'm afraid.

Late evening sand action awaits us today in the...

8.10 Wolverhampton

Where Marco Botti will be aiming to continue his fine excellent form and also to maintain his tremendous record here at Dunstall Park.

Marco really has got his string in fine fettle at present with 10 winners from 23 in the last fortnight at all odds. That 43.5% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 23.9pts, a return of almost 104% above stakes invested and all 10 winners have come from the 17 runners priced at 7/1 or under.

10 from 17 is a remarkable 58.8% strike rate and the 29.9pts profit represents almost 176% of stakes.

Not only does Marco has an excellent recent record, he has also been consistently turning out winners here at Wolverhampton for a good while now. In fact since the start of 2012, his record here with runners priced at 7/1 or under reads as 36 winners from 99 with 48.4pts (+49% ROI) coming from that 36.4% strike rate. Incidentally, 38 of those 99 runners were fillies, of which 15 (39.5%) were victorious producing 28.1pts (+73.9% ROI) profit.

The reason I mentioned that the girls were outperforming the boys is simply because both of Signor Botti's runners here this evening are female!

Summer Dream is a 9/2 shot in the 6.40 race and has a decent chance of breaking her maiden tag at the 13th attempt. She's not a bad sort, but despite being very consistent (7 top 4 finishes at 7f), she always seems to find one or two too good for her. She's pretty well treated now off a mark of 73, which might just do the trick, but I've passed her over in favour of Wakeup Little Suzy.

Wakeup Little Suzy was a comfortably 5 lengths winner on her only other previous outing here at Wolverhampton off a mark of 71. She then stepped up to Class 4 for a couple of runs and performed well without winning at Goodwood (3rd over a mile) and at Kempton (5th over 7f, but eased down once beaten). She drops back down a grade here and runs off a mark only 3lbs higher than her course victory.

The 7 furlongs seemed too short last time out and they way she ran over the mile at Goodwood suggests that todays 8.5f should be more to her liking. I'm told that she's off to the sales next week, so it's in her connections best interests that she runs under optimum conditions today.

I'd expect Wakeup Little Suzy to go off somewhere in the 4/1 to 5/1 area, so I was pleased to see both William Hill and Paddy Power offering 7/1 BOG. At that price, I think there's enough scope for a safety-first E/W bet, so that's my play for today.

If she goes on to win, a 0.5pts E/W bet at 7/1 BOG returns 4.2pts profit, which won't be too far from my anticipated SP, but with the added insurance of the place bet. To see whether it's still viable to go E/W, simply...

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Stat of the Day, 17th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2013

Stagecoach Pearl had to settle for the bridesmaid role at the end of an exciting contest at Wetherby. He lost the lead at the last and was battling with Temple Lord for the victory when both were passed in a flying finish from Lucky Landing who swept by to score by just over two lengths.

We got close with our 7/2 shot (SP 100/30), but not close enough and I'm hoping for a good run in the...

7.50 Kempton

Where I'm on the interesting handicap debutant Duchess of Seville. I've already placed a 0.5pts E/W bet on her at 8/1 BOG with Paddy Power and I shall now attempt to explain why.

Firstly, she is trained by Marco Botti, whose horses are in fantastic form at present with seven winners and three placed from 14 runners in the last week, including a 7/2 winner on Wednesday's card here.

Marco has a good recent record here at Kempton in handicap contests, especially with horses in the 7/4 to 8/1 region. Over the 2011/13 period 16 of 61 such runners have proved victorious, giving a strike rate of 26.23% for this timeframe and excellent profits of some 22.9pts, or 375.% of stakes invested. As I'm taking the E/W option with this selection, it's also interesting to note that 32 of the 61 runners have been placed (52.46%).

Signor Botti also has a very good record when giving horses their handicap debut on an all-weather surface and when those runners have been sent off at odds of 12/1 or under during the above 2011/13 timeframe, there has been 16 winners from 60 (26.67%SR) for level stakes profits of 18.95pts (+31.6% ROI) with 32 of them (53.33%) also making the frame.

If we were to disregard the shorter-priced runners (ie below 7/4) that wouldn't interest us from a SotD point of view, then the figures become 13 winners from 53 (24.53%) for profits of 20.43pts or 38.55% of stakes, with the small drop in strike rate being more than compensated for by the increased ratio of profit. Incidentally the place strike rate was still very good here with 29 of the 53 making the frame.

Duchess of Seville comes here for her handicap debut and looks relatively lightly treated off a mark of 82, when you consider how she ran in her three maiden contests at Wolverhampton. She was placed third in each of her first two starts after running quite green, but still having the raw ability to get involved late on. Martin Harley took the ride last time out (he's back in the saddle again for this ride) and he handled her brilliantly, steering her to a comfortable 8 length victory and in truth she could have won by much more.

She's by far the least exposed of this field and any doubts about her stepping up to run a couple of extra furlongs are offset by the way she eased home last time out, plus her breeding does tend to suggest that she'll eventually get even further than this 11 furlong trip.

I'd expect some money to come for Duchess of Seville, that's why I've taken the early 8/1 E/W BOG from Paddy Power, but if you prefer to wait, you can always...

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