CHESTER – MAY 11
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last seven years:
2017: £11.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
2016: £22.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)
2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)
2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,034.10 - 43 favourites - 13 winners - 11 placed - 19 unplaced
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 76.5% units went through – 13/8* & 4/1
Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/5* - 5/1 – 25/1
Race 3: 29.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/2 – 10/1 (3/1)
Race 4: 70.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 2/1* - 15/2
Race 5: 58.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2
Race 6: 80.3% of the units secured the dividend – 6/4* - 11/4 – 12/1
Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Arcanada), 2 (South Seas), 15 (Mickey) & 12 (Penwortham)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Eminent) & 1 (Convey)
Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Pivoine), 2 (Dark Red) & 1 (Titi Makfi)
Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Magic Circle), 9 (Who Dares Wins), 8 (My Reward) & 7 (Fun Mac)
Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Kachy) & 5 (Growl)
Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Kazawi) & 7 (Jabbaar)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last ten years - forecast landed three years ago), whilst 13 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more. If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, with the two vintages having dominated the event down the years. Despite his stall position out wide, money has come in for ARCANADA overnight and with Tom Dascombe’s raider possessing ticks in both of the (age/weight) trend boxes, I’ll join in by including the Arcano gelding in my Placepot mix. Similar comments apply to SOUTH SEAS who being slight better drawn in stall nine would be my idea of the each way play in the opening contest. From the vintage stats, I’m also offering win and place chances to MICKEY and PENWORTHAM.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst nine of the fifteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last thirteen renewals.
Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):
8-2-4 11 ran-good to firm)
4-2-1 (11 ran-good)
5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)
1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)
2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)
12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)
7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)
6-4-1 (11 ran-good)
5-6-3 (12 ran-good)
10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)
1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)
4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)
2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)
16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)
3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)
7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)
2.25 (Huxley Stakes): Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen contests whereby EMINENT is the first name on the team sheet, albeit Martyn Meade’s Frankel colt is too short for me at around the 8/11 mark to become involved with from a win perspective. Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared CONVEY though that said, only one vintage representative has scored in the last nineteen years. I wonder if it’s purely coincidental that the winner Maraahel hailed from Michael’s stable?
Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (11 winners). 13 of the last 19 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.
3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, with vintage raiders coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer. POVOINE and TITI MAKFI are the only relevant raiders this time around, with the pair listed in marginal order of preference on account of the draw (three over ten). Ed Dunlop’s Tadleel was a poor flop for us yesterday having crawled out of the stalls from a wide draw which made it impossible to become involved at the business end of proceedings. Ryan Moore takes the rdde about stable companion DARK RED here with obvious Placepot credentials at the very least.
Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame via thirteen renewals, statistics which include three (11/2, 9/4 & 10/11) winners.
3.35 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril. Low numbers invariably rule the roost as eight of the last eleven results (see below) confirm. Six-year-olds have won this event five times during the last decade, whilst ten of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2. Putting the stats and facts together offers a ‘short list’ of MAGIC CIRCLE, WHO DARES WINS AND MY REWARD. WHO DARES WINS would seemingly have plenty to do from stall fifteen but Ryan Moore’s 44% record when riding for Alan King via seven winners convinces yours truly that it would be foolish to leave him out of the equation. The reserve nomination is awarded to FUN MAC who runs here from a better mark than when finishing third last year from an inferior draw.
Favourite factor: Three of the last nineteen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty three market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.
Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):
2-3-13-7 (17 ran-good)
4-15-9-12 (17 ran-good)
11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)
4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)
2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)
13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)
1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)
5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)
4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)
13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)
4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)
2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)
13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)
9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)
4.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the five renewals to date, with a 25/1 chance being responsible for preventing total domination in the contest thus far. KACHY is the lone (but worthy) representative on this occasion, with Tom Dascombe’s raider as short as 5/4 in places at the time of writing. Such cramped odds overnight made it possible to obtain an each way play on GROWL, though those odds are disappearing as I near the end of Thursday’s offering.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4 & 6/4) winners.
Draw factor (seven furlongs):
3-2-1 (9 ran-good)
5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)
3-4-6 (9 ran-good)
3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
6-7 (7 ran-soft)
4.35: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, with KAZAWI and JABBAR expected to land out third Chester Placepot this week, albeit slight losses were incurred via the permutation yesterday.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (10/3) favourite.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.