Tix Picks, Wednesday 09/10/24
Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Ludlow, Nottingham & Sedgefield.
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
...and I fancy another crack at soft ground, so we're off to Nottingham for six races commencing with...
Leg 1 @ 1.45, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...
Many A Year was a winner at Hamilton sixteen days ago, Bama Lama has been in the first three home in nine of her last eleven starts, winning twice and Diamondsinthesand has made the frame in seven of his last eleven, whilst Quanah is a three-time winner on soft ground and his jockey has been in good form himself of late...
We can add Apache Star to our calculations as he has also has gone well under similar conditions...
...and is now below his last winning mark. The pace is likely to be set by (2) Bama Lama...
..and it's entirely possible that she'll have things his own way, so she's in. (4) Many A Year is the form horse here, so he's in and I think I'll take (1) Apache Star over Diamondsinthesand based on Instant Expert.
Leg 2 @ 2.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 6f...
Eleven run, two are on debut. Five have raced twice with (6) Double Rush's soft ground runner-up finish the pick of the results, whilst of the four making just their second start today, (2) Arctic Voyage's third pace on heavy ground looks the best first effort and he's a half-brother to former group 2 winner Speak In Colours who won nine races 6f and 7f.
In a race where only Arctic Voyage looks like being a front-runner, a repeat of (3) Carbine Harvester's prominent run at Kempton might make him the most notable challenger to the pair above.
Leg 3 @ 2.45, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...
Miss Alpilles won two starts ago and drops two classes here, the fast-finisher Pique has been the runner-up in each of her last four since winning at Leicester in May and was only beaten by a neck last time out at Yarmouth. Soft-ground winner Dancingwithmyself failed to complete a hat-trick last time out, but is three from six, although he is up in trip here. Divine Presence is 2134 in her last four and Seek And Destroy has a win and a runner-up finish from her last three.
You can make a case for all five of those, which brings us to top weight Plus Point, who herself has failed to make the frame in her last three after starting her handicap career with finishes of 11341. She was heavily beaten last time out and as the sole non-3yo in the race, she's 7lbs 'wrong' at the weights here, so she's off my list.
The pace/draw heat map leans towards (4) Dancingwithmyself, (6) Seek And Destroy & (5) Divine Presence...
...so I'll take these three at the obvious risk of Pique burning my fingers!
Leg 4 @ 3.15, an 8-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m½f...
We've lost two runners here, so only eight are set to race with half of them making their debut! Of those with racecourse experience, Hot Dancer looks the obvious pick after finishing as runner-up in both outings so far, but he is up three classes here.
Elsewhere Royal Officer should have more to give than he has so far. His connections are amongst the shrewdest in the business and whilst spending money is no guarantee of success, this horse was the most expensive purchase at the Craven Breeze-Up sales, costing a cool at 1,000,000 Guineas.
Of the newcomers, Holborn is interesting. His yard are in good form, especially with Rossa Ryan in the saddle and the team have a good record with 2yo debutants on this track...
... so (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer are my tentative trio of picks here.
Leg 5 @ 3.45, a 5-runner, Class 3, 2yo handicap over 1m2f...
The bare form guide says Lazieelunch might stroll home here after three wins on the bounce, but that has taken his mark from 56 to 79 (up 5lbs today) and all three wins were on the all-weather. He has failed to make the frame in three runs on turf, finishing last of 12 on debut, 7th of 9 and 7th of 8, so he's not quite the shoo-in here and the consistent (35323 in his last five) Chelsea Embankment might be the safer option for at least a place.
Manila Thriller hasn't been at her best in two big-money races recently but before those she was a runner-up in back to back Class 2 races (one on soft ground), beaten by a neck each time and she's down in class here, whilst Gentle Warrior took a while to get going last time out, but styed on well from the back to get within a length of the winner over a mile at Redcar. This, however, is tougher as he steps up three classes and I think I'll stick with (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller here.
Leg 6 @ 4.17, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...
Top-weight Boy Douglas has been placed in half of his twelve starts to date, winning twice including once on heavy ground. A wide draw over an inadequate trip at Chester recently didn't show his true potential, as he'd finished 212203 in his previous six runs.
Lunario finished sixth at Yarmouth last time out, ending a good run of eight top-three (3 wins) finishes and he could be dangerous down in class today. Native Souvenir makes a handicap debut after a heavy ground win on debut was followed by a three length defeat on Polytrack. Pressure's On was a runner-up LTO and Climate Action has been the runner-up in three of her five starts to date.
Ardbraccan has been the bridesmaid in each of her last two and Mr Swivell was third in his last two and has placed in five of his last seven, winning twice. Desperate Dan has been in the frame in two of his last three and with Groovy Baby also in the frame in three of her five starts, you can make a case for several runners here to finish in the first three home.
All nine score well on Instant Expert, which doesn't really help us too much...
...but today's draw allied with the field's pace scores over their last few races does highlight some runners...
...and in a tricky affair to call, I'm inclined to take all three (3) Native Souvenir, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan, along with (4) Pressure's On who ran really well as a soft ground runner-up last time out off an unchanged mark of 77 and with his form reading 335122 of marks of 75 to 77, I prefer him to Lunario for the finale.
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All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Apache Star, (2) Bama Lama & (4) Many A Year
Leg 2: (2) Arctic Voyage, (3) Carbine Harvester & (6) Double Rush
Leg 3: (4) Dancingwithmyself, (5) Divine Presence & (6) Seek And Destroy
Leg 4: (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer
Leg 5: (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller
Leg 6: (3) Native Souvenir, (4) Pressure's On, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck!
Chris