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Stat of the Day, 24th July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

7.00 Beverley : Desert Ace @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on one pace)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

6.30 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Classic Pursuit 9/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

Another nicely priced placer last night, but hopefully we'll fare better with this 7 yr old gelding, who's another one I'm hopeful of ending a long losing spell. This one has 13 defeats on the bounce since his last win, which just happened to be here at Nottingham at this grade over course and distance off today's mark of 68.

After that win, he was raised to 96 and although his mark has been coming down with each defeat since, he's always been weighted out of things. He showed positive signs of a return to form last time out, when a runner-up off today's mark at Doncaster 12 days ago, over today's trip/class/going.

Despite the long losing run, his overall record still shows 5 wins from 21 (23.8% SR) in the July/August period and 2 wins from 9 here at Nottingham, including 2 from 8 over course and distance.

His trainer Mick Appleby is 41 from 243 (16.9% SR) for 176.9pts (+72.8% ROI) in handicaps here at Nottingham since 2011, including...

  • 13 from 78 (16.7%) for 79.6pts (+102.1%) at Class 5
  • 11 from 43 (25.6%) for 54.8pts (+127.5%) over this 5f course and distance

Another positive is that that when jockey Robert Winston has ridden one of the Appleby handicappers priced at 11/1 and shorter, they have 8 wins from 40 (20% SR) for 11.08pts (+27.7% ROI) with the last season and a half showing 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 18.65pts (+98.2%)...

...and today's simplistic approach suggests...a 1pt win bet on Classic Pursuit 9/2 BOGa price available from at least five firms at 5.30pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.30 Sandown : Euginio @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/4 (Tracked leader, pushed along 3f out, lost 2nd over 1f out, chased leaders, held when not much room and no extra towards finish, beaten by less than a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG

In a 7-runner Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

This 3yr old gelding has won two of his last six runs and his sole turf success came two starts ago in another small field Class 5 handicap on good to firm ground, so conditions won't be alien to him.

Despite not managing to land SotD's 4th winner on the bounce yesterday, I've no hesitation is trusting Silvestre de Sousa with the reins again today. I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well and although he couldn't get Euginio up for us, he did have two more winners on the day.

Like Sandown, Nottingham has been another good venue for this jockey in recent years, where he has won 30 of 158 races (19% SR) for 36.7pts (+23.2% ROI) profit since the start of the 2014 season and with today's race in mind, that record includes...

  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 27/115 (23.5%) for 36.4pts (+31.6%)
  • in handicaps : 18/107 (16.8%) for 16.3pts (+15.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/86 (18.6%) for 4.6pts (+5.3%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 6.8pts (+12.2%)
  • and over trips of 10/10.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 37.6pts (+139.3%)

Now, although he doesn't get to ride for today's trainer Richard Fahey too often, it's certainly not because he doesn't win on that yard's horses. In fact he is 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 12.56pts (+114.2%) on them since the start of last season with a 4/6 (66.6%) record in handicaps that has produced 17.56pts profit at an ROI of 292.7%!

And finally, we really should consider Mr Fahey's own recent record at this venue and I'm happy to report that it's also very good with 28 winners from 150 since the start of the 2014 season.

This 18.7% strike rate has rewarded followers with profits of 50.7pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% with his handicappers winning 19 of 104 (18.3%) for 47.4pts (+45.5%) and it is these 104 'cappers I want to focus on, because under today's conditions, they are...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 55pts (+80.8%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 42pts (+80.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/44 (13.6%) for 37.5pts (+85.3%) when beaten by 5 to 30 lengths LTO
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 24.5pts (+74.1%) in 3yo races
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.2pts (+120.5%) racing 6-15 days after their last run
  • and 9/24 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+61.4%) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/2

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 28th June

LEICESTER – JUNE 28 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £443.20 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.9% units went through – 3/1 & 16/1 (5/2)

Race 2: 30.5% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

Race 3: 40.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 4/1 (13/8)

Race 5: 68.8% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 9/1

Race 6: 40.1% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 20/1 -12/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (5.40): 6 (Lexington Place), 5 (Captain Lars) & 2 (Bosham)

Leg 2 (6.10): 2 (Motafaawit) & 3 (Nayef Road)

Leg 3 (6.40): 2 (Poetic Force) & 4 (Boycie)

Leg 4 (7.15): 3 (Trogon), 4 (Bowler Hat) & 1 (Mrs Benson)

Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (Claudine) & 4 (Culdrose)

Leg 6 (8.20): 9 (Edge Of The World), 6 (Daffy Jane) & 5 (Mutabaahy)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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5.40: Fort those of you that like to look at the corresponding results for last year’s meeting, this card was contested on the Tuesday (27th) of this week twelve months ago. Readers who like to play in running could be interested in this opening race on the card, principally because of the declaration of eleven time winner LEXINGTON PLACE.  Ruth Carr’s eight-year-old course winner is a slow starter in general terms but if breaking on level terms (thereabouts) in this grade/company, win number twelve could well be on the cards.  Have your finger primed on the relevant button because players in running are quick thinkers who jump on an ‘edge’ when it becomes available.  Aside from that scenario, CAPTAIN LARS and BOSHAM will rightly have more than their fair share of supporters.  Last year’s winner Vimy Ridge has already been withdrawn, robbing each way and Placepot players of a third place scenario.

Favourite factor: Only one of the six market leaders has claimed a Placepot position thus far when doing so by winning its relevant event as one of the 11/4 joint favourites four years ago.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Lexington Place (good to firm)

1/4—David’s Beauty (soft)

 

6.10: Just the four runners go to post for this Novice event which was contested by the same number of entries twelve months ago. MOTAFAAWIT was withdrawn on account of the fast ground at Salisbury yesterday whereby we could land up with just three contenders this evening.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that trainer Richard Hannon might chance his luck here with just three rivals to beat, the pick of which is undoubtedly Mark Johnston’s Nayef Galileo colt NAYEF ROAD, albeit a distance of ground will eventually bring out the best in the late (May) foal.

Favourite factor: Las year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished last of the four runners.

 

6.40: We still await the first successful market leader following five renewals, with three winners being returned at 10/1 alongside a pair of 5/1 chances.  Course winners Arrowzone if one of two seven-year-olds in the field, though four-year-olds lead the five-year-old 3-2 in the contest to date.  Those stats bring in the likes of POETIC FORCE and BOYCIE from my viewpoint and this pair are taken against their seven rivals this evening.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Arctic Sea.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Arrowzone (soft)

 

7.15: In contrast to the previous event on the card, this race has been great for favourite backers (see relevant stats below), with market leaders coming to the gig on a four-time on this occasion.  Mick Channon has won with his last two runners in the race (stats which include the only 14/1 rogue gold medallist to date), whereby TROGON is the first name on the team sheet, despite the fact that Mick’s gelding remains a maiden after a dozen assignments. BOWLER HAT and MRS BENSON are added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst eight gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 5/2 during the study period.

 

7.50: I opened with these words twelve months ago; “Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage handicaps, with vintage representatives on offer at 1/2 before the form book is consulted on this occasion.  At first glance, the 5/1 odds marked up in the trade press against the name of Hope Against Hope looks skinny to say the least with 16/1 available in a few places at the time of writing but that said, Mark Johnston’s 50/1 Nursery winner has been trimmed into 12/1 by plenty of firms as I write this column.  It remains to be seen how well the Dark Angel representative runs at the first time of asking this season, though any further support in the lead up to flag fall could be worth heeding”.  Hope Against Hope won by a hard held three lengths when returned at 7/1.  It would be great to call that type of result again a year down the line, though 5/1 is the most you might get about my pair against the field in this potential ‘dead eight’ event, namely CLAUDINE and CULDROSE.  The problem I have at the time of writing, is that I’m finding difficult the spilt the pair in terms of preference.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far via just the four renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Zaria (heavy)

 

8.20: Two withdrawals are already in the offing but hopefully there are enough participants to create (at the very least) a ‘dead eight’ finale.  The only course winner EDGE OF THE WORLD is joined in the Placepot mix by DAFFY JANE and MUTABAAHY, though I wouldn’t have a ‘win bet’ with your money.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Edge Of The World (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £9.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 74.1% units went through – 5/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 68.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 3: 44.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* - 14/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 66.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 3/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 81.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 10/11* - 15/2

Race 6: 62.7% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/2 – 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Tiar Na Nog) & 2 (Kath’s Legacy)

Leg 2 (6.30): 8 (Implicit) & 4 (Nefarios)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Irene’s Prince), 7 (Balsim) & 5 (Wolf Hunter)

Leg 4 (7.30): 10 (Titus Secret), 6 (Oh So Sassy) & 7 (Field Of Vision)

Leg 5 (8.00): 6 (Sir Plato) & 3 (Shadow Warrior)

Leg 6 (8.30): 6 (Seaborough), 3 (Tour De Paris) & 2 (Bajan Gold)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We landed yet another Placepot dividend (at Salisbury) yesterday which produced 19 points of profit.

 

6.00: Four of the six winners have carried 9-1 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses in the list (one via a claimer) if you take the stats seriously, as does this self-confessed ‘anorak’.  TIAR NA NOG only found a rival in red hot form too good for her last week and connections of Denis Coakley’s six-year-old mare should gain compensation in this grade/company.  KATH’S LEGACY looks likely to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Biotic.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (one gold and three silver medallists) have secured Placepot positions thus far.

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Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/10—Biotic (good)

1/3—Munsarim (good to firm)

 

6.30: Support for IMPLICIT from James Tate’s shrewd yard would be a positive pointer towards the twice raced Kodiac filly, though realistic money in the positive exchange queue has already arrived for Henry Candy’s Zebedee colt NEFARIOS which is impossible to ignore.  Oona will not doubt run another sound race but it would be a tad disappointing if the first named pair failed to finish in front of Richard Hannon’s February foal.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished second thus far whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

7.00: David Evans has won six of the last seven renewals and with two of the eleven entries in David’s care, IRENE’S PRINCE and BLASIM are the first two names on the team should which you might have guessed.  That said, Richard Hughes has a decent bunch of juveniles at his disposal this year and WOLF HUNTER was running on well at Goodwood last week which suggests that this slightly tougher track (with an additional furlong to travel) will suit.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 14 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 13 years having been returned at just 7/1.  The last twelve gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1.  14/15 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

7.30: All twelve winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that catch the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of OH SO SASSY, TITUS SECRET and FIELD OF VISION.  The booking of Gerald Mosse for Clive Cox’s first named raider is particularly eye-catching given their 3/6 ratio when teaming up thus far.

Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed Placepot positions via eight contests at the time.  Two of the four subsequent market leaders (one winner) have added Placepot positions to the tally.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

3/8—Englishman (good – good to firm – soft)

1/1—Blitz (good)

1/2—Libertum (good to soft)

2/4—Anonymous John (good & heavy)

 

8.00: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the twelve renewals thus far, yet only four trainers (of eight in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with four time course winner SIR PLATO and SHADOW WARRIOR (1/1 at the track) taking centre stage from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites.  Eleven of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.

Record of the four course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Shadow Warrior (good to firm)

1/2—Kingston Kurrajung (soft)

4/6—Sir Plato (2 x good to soft – good – good to firm)

1/7—Harlequin Striker (soft)

 

8.30: Eight of the winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 whereby SEABOROUGH, TOUR DE PARIS and BAJAN GOLD will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  Hopefully England will be at least one or two goals to the good ion the football front by the time that flag fall arrives!  Then again….

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have won during which time, four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £285.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 48.1% units went through – 80/1 – 3/1 – 5/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 93.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 4/7* - 14/1

Race 3: 29.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/4* - 7/1

Race 4: 12.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 6/1 – 16/1

Race 5: 19.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 11/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 76.2% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 10/3 – 10/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Almurr), 3 (Confiding) & 4 (Daafr)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Klassique), 2 (Feline Groovy) & 9 (Solar Echo)

Leg 3 (2.20): 8 (Snow Wind) & 7 (Scottish Jig)

Leg 4 (2.55): 1 (Sea Of Class) & 3 (Dramatic Queen)

Leg 5 (3.30): 5 (Dourado), 1 (Madeleine Bond) & 9 (Wind In My Sails)

Leg 6 (4.00): 1 (Agar’s Plough) & 3 (Mountain Peak)

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Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.20: ALMURR was the subject of some market activity overnight and there was plenty to like about Brian Meehan’s Dandy Man representative when beaten less than three lengths on debut at Leicester.  CONFIDING has been pleasing connections back at Martin Meade’s ranch, whilst DAAFR should be there or thereabouts entering the final furlong.

Favourite factor: Only one of three favourites has secured a Placepot position to date.  The relevant 4/7 market leader finished second last year as we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective after three renewals.

 

1.50: This is a guessing game to a fashion, though the Galieo filly KLASSIQUE could be a tad overpriced with a couple of firms at the time of writing.  William Haggas continues his relentless run of decent form and Tom Marquand’s mount might prove to be the safest option, from a Placepot perspective at least.  Others catching the eye include stable companion FELINE GROOVY and SOLAR ECHO.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.20: With a couple of likely looking representatives in the first heat of this contest, William Haggas looks to have a fairly strong hold, having declared his High Chaparral filly SNOW WIND.  Bet365 are out on a limb at 9/2 as I pen this column and that could look a very decent price in an hour or two I’ll wager.  SCOTTISH JIG has experience on her side (to a fashion) and John Gosden’s Speightstown raider also looks sure to go close.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card. The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.55: SEA OF CLASS and DRAMATIC QUEEN hail from the William Haggas yard which is seemingly seeking to take over the meeting given their declarations on Thursday.  SEA OF CLASS looks to be the clear pick of the pair, though readers should take note of the ‘favourite factor’ below before diving in with both feet!

Favourite factor: Only one of the last four favourites that failed to win their respective events has finished in the frame, stats which include the last two odds on favourites.  That said, market leaders have won three of the last seven renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sea Of Class (good to firm)

 

3.30: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured six of the available eight Placepot positions to date, stats which include all three winners at odds of 25/1, 15/2 and 6/1, albeit via 70% of the total number of runners.  Upwards and onward using that ‘edge’ by naming DOURADO, MADELEINE BOND and WIND IN MY SAILS against the remaining thirteen contenders.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests, whilst only one of the market leaders has secured a Placepot positon during the period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

1/2—Madeleine Bond (good)

1/2—Wind In My Sails (good to firm)

1/1—Kyllachys Tale (good to firm)

1/9—Cricklewood Green (good)

 

4.00: If any of the 15/2 on offer about AGAR’S PLOUGH is still available, I would be inclined to make an investment in a race in which barely any other horse has attracted support overnight.  MOUNTAIN PEAK is nominated as the most obvious threat.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged via the last ten contest, though seven gold medallists during the study period scored at a top price of 7/1.  Five of the ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 10th June

GOODWOOD – JUNE 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £27.50 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

  • Mal's last three Placepot permutations have all delivered the required goods!

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 58.7% units went through – 2/1* - 33/1 – 8/1

Race 2: 46.2% of the remaining units when through – 11/4* - 15/2 – 9/1

Race 3: 48.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 8/1

Race 4: 78.0% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 8/1 – 10/3

Race 5: 77.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* & 11/4

Race 6: 32.9% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1 – 3/1 – 14/1 (11/4)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 9 (Ateem), 6 (Sir Titan) & 1 (Eagle Creek)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Panko) & 1 (See Of Rome)

Leg 3 (3.10): 12 (Solesmes), 8 (Ever Rock) & 2 (Kingi Compton)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Faithful Mount), 3 (Imphal) & 5 (Mancini)

Leg 5 (4.20): 4 (Zac Brown) & 2 (Lucky Beggar)

Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Four White Socks) & 7 (Hulcote)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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2.00: None of the four trainers who have won this race thus far is represented which no help whatsoever, whilst four different aged horses have won to date.  That said, a three-year-old raider scored twelve months ago and this year’s lone junior vintage raider ATEEM has attracted overnight support which adds to his each way/Placepot claims from my viewpoint.  When the barometer tells us that we are still living in a country which offers a few days of what we used to class as summer, the Marcus Tregoning team invariably start celebrating winners (especially here at Goodwood) whereby the chance of SIR TITAN is also respected alongside EAGLE CREEK.  Just to make the race even more interesting, I’ll wager that there will be worse outsiders on the card than Easy Tiger.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 10/3) winners.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/4—Easy Tiger (good)

1/2—Sir Titan (good to soft)

 

2.35: Once again, all four trainers to have won this event to date are nowhere to be seen though to be entirely fair, Clive Brittain did (well and truly) earn his retirement a few years ago!  Upwards and onward by informing that all four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3 thus far which only leaves the top two horses in the handicap to assess, if we conveniently take allowances into the equation.  The pair at the top of the weights are PANKO and SEE OF ROME, the pair being marginally preferred in order of preference.  The Paul Nicholls team have had a great deal of fun with VOLPONE JELOIS this season and the five-year-old gelding should be there or thereabouts once again when jockeys start to raise their whips with the jamstick in sight.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have obliged to date, producing eleven points of level stake profit into the bargain!

 

3.10: Mick Channon has bailed out his fellow trainers on the card because having won both renewals thus far, Mick has done the decent thing by declaring his Gregorian juveniles SOLESMES on this occasion.  Only Mark Johnston can better Mick’s tally of fourteen winners in the juvenile sector this season, and Mick’s March foal has decent claims in this grade/company.  EVER ROCK is classed as the main threat, with the declaration of KINGI COMPTON adding further interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have won their respective events to date.

 

3.45: Racing is full of wonderful triumphs amidst the occasional tragedy and it is with something of a heavy heart that I report that the grand Ian Williams servant London Prize won this contest twelve months ago before his life ending fall under the other code of racing earlier this year.  Ian saddles the appropriately named FAITHFUL MOUNT because that is what ALL horses are who entertain us on a daily basis. Some thoroughbreds are a little more ‘genuine’ than others (no different to human beings) but in the mane, these are God’s kindest creatures on earth from my perspective, beating ‘man’s best friend’ in the closest of photo finishes.  It would be nice if a poignant winner ensued this afternoon, with the main potential party poopers expected to include IMPHAL and MANCINI.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites (via just four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions.  Two market leaders have prevailed at odds of 4/1** & 7/4.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—Imphal (good)

1/2—Inn The Bull (soft)

1/8—Gavlah (good)

1/3—River Dart (good to firm)

1/1—Chivers (good to soft)

 

4.20: All four winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 which suggests that Our Lord could struggle to score, even though the top weight might be just 16 ounces the wrong side of the ‘superior’ barrier if the apprentice can call on all three pounds on this occasion.  Last year’s winner ZAC BROWN is the first name on the team sheet with William Carson’s mount looking solid as a rock at 4/1 across the boards this morning.  LUCKY BEGGAR has a chance for all to see if we take yesteryear’s form into account, whilst Friday’s course winner OEIL DE TIGRE would have to be given a chance if being turned out again.  That said, the step back in trip plus his tendency to wander about the course just eliminates Tony Carroll’s raider from my Placepot mix today.

Favourite factor: Although we still await the first winning favourite after four renewals, three of the market leaders secured Placepot positions whilst the other jolly just missed out by running fourth in the relevant contest.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Zac Brown (good to soft)

2/2—Oeil De Tigre (good & good to soft)

 

4.55: God Given won for the Luca Cumani team yesterday with their only runner of the day and with this being Luca’s time of year, the popular trainer could strike again with his lone representative FOUR WHITE SOCKS.  Luca has no more runners until Wednesday at the earliest whereby his supporters should strike whilst the opportunity is in place.  HULCOTE and TAMREER are the obvious dangers.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Goodwood card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 30th May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £158.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.1% units went through – 16/1 – 5/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 38.3% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 7/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 44.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 6/1

Race 4: 55.1% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* & 6/1

Race 5: 22.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 – 16/1 – 7/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 46.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 14 (Sabia Sabai), 8 (Heartwarming) & 15 (She Can Boogie)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Nuns Walk) & 1 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Autumn Leaves) & 1 (Fille De Reve)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Repercussion), 6 (Zwayyan) & 7 (Daira Prince)

Leg 5 (4.20): 10 (Time To Sea), 5 (Fisher Green) & 2 (Fanfair)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (River Glades) & 3 (Sassie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.20: Tom Dascombe was quite keen on SHE CAN BOOGIE earlier in the year but having suffered a slight setback in her work, it will be interesting to see how the Dandy Man filly has ‘recovered’. While on the subject of juveniles, I should just offer a pointer from yesterday whereby you can put a line through the effort of Gracious Dane who was greener than the grass at Leicester yesterday, as the market indicated.  Back to this event by suggesting that SABAI SABAI and HEARTWARMING have had the jungle drums beating in their respective ‘neck of the woods’ for a while now.  CAPLA ROCK sets the standard thus far, though the bar is not set that high and it would be a tad disappointing if at least one of the three newcomers mentioned in dispatches failed to get on terms at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions via four renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/4**) winner.

 

2.50: Although only three of Tim Easterby’s last fifteen runners have won, investors would have made a half decent level stake profit during the period, notwithstanding three of Tim’s other runners having finished in the frame at each way prices for good measure.  Tom saddles NUNS WALK with claims here, with connections probably having most to fear from other four-year-olds such as ISLAND OF LIFE and (possibly) MELONADE.  Although we have hardly established a trend as such following just two renewals, four-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick.  Last year’s winner Socialites Red looks to have a little more to do today.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite duly obliged, though detectives are still combing the area for the 5/2 market leader from last year which was sunk without trace.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

2/5—Socialites Red (2 x good)

2/4—Sitar (2 x good to soft)

 

3.20: Ten of the eleven winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which produce seven qualifiers on this occasion.  Clive Cox has started the season well which is invariably the case and aside from Heartwarming in the opening event, the popular trainers saddled AUTUMN LEAVES here boasting definite claims following a nice win at Salisbury last back end at the third time of asking.  Odds of 10/3 are available in a couple of places and win, lose or draw, I doubt that price will get bigger as the day wears on. We have to take it on trust that the Helmet filly will see out the additional furlong at full speed but given that she won on this ground in August, I’m willing to take that chance.   That said, the nine strong field is packed with promising fillies in an absorbing contest, the pick of which today (not necessarily for the season as a whole) could prove to be HARVEST DAY and (particularly) FILLE DE REVE.

Favourite factor: Six of the last nine renewals have been secured by market leaders during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1.  Ten of the eleven favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

 

3.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date and with REPERCUSSION attracting money overnight, I’m tilting towards the chance of the Charlie Fellowes raider minute by minute.  Richard Kingscote boasts a 50% record for the trainer for good measure, albeit following just two opportunities in the saddle.  Other contenders worthy of a passing interest include ZWAYYAN (the other five-year-old in the field) and DAIRA PRINCE, a winner of three of five handicaps contested thus far. The declarations of Tricorn and Seniority add plenty of interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (13/8 & 9/4) gold medallists.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—Daira Prince (good to firm)

 

4.20: Trainer John Butler complicates matters by declaring three runners in the field, with ‘early money’ seemingly suggesting that TIME TO SEA is the pick of the trio.  Roger Fell is rapidly becoming one of my favourite ‘unsung’ handlers and FISHER GREEN could go well on his first run for the yard this afternoon.  Other each way types to consider include seven time winner WOODY BAY and FANFAIR.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/9—Woody Bay (good to firm)

1/2—Torch (good to firm)

 

4.50: Eight of the nine winners in the Placepot finale have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, though I have only left the stats in for your records as all seven runners qualify via the weight trend this time around.  I’m sticking with RIVER GLADES and his Wetherby form over two of these rivals, despite the fact that Mark Johnston’s top weight let the side down away from turf the last day.  Mark has a knack of reviving his inmates like few other trainers can match.  SASSIE is slightly preferred to SOTOMAYER as the main threat.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via just nine renewals.  Nine of the ten favourites secured Placepot positions for good measure.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 22nd May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*

Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)

Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)

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Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability.  The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.

 

2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape.  I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price.  David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort.  Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint.  If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1.  AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head.  The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years.  AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly.  James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight.  That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest.  The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th May

ASCOT – MAY 12

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)

Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH.  Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)

 

2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

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Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21).  It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80.  Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.

Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):

18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:

1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)

2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW.  Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals).  MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.

Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.

Draw details:

22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 11th May

CHESTER – MAY 11

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £11.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,034.10 - 43 favourites - 13 winners - 11 placed - 19 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.5% units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/5* - 5/1 – 25/1

Race 3: 29.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/2 – 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 70.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 2/1* - 15/2

Race 5: 58.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2

Race 6: 80.3% of the units secured the dividend – 6/4* - 11/4 – 12/1

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Arcanada), 2 (South Seas), 15 (Mickey) & 12 (Penwortham)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Eminent) & 1 (Convey)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Pivoine), 2 (Dark Red) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Magic Circle), 9 (Who Dares Wins), 8 (My Reward) & 7 (Fun Mac)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Kachy) & 5 (Growl)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Kazawi) & 7 (Jabbaar)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last ten years - forecast landed three years ago), whilst 13 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, with the two vintages having dominated the event down the years.  Despite his stall position out wide, money has come in for ARCANADA overnight and with Tom Dascombe’s raider possessing ticks in both of the (age/weight) trend boxes, I’ll join in by including the Arcano gelding in my Placepot mix.  Similar comments apply to SOUTH SEAS who being slight better drawn in stall nine would be my idea of the each way play in the opening contest.  From the vintage stats, I’m also offering win and place chances to MICKEY and PENWORTHAM.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst nine of the fifteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last thirteen renewals.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

8-2-4 11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (11 ran-good)

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)

1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)

2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)

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7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)

6-4-1 (11 ran-good)

5-6-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)

13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)

4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)

16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)

7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Huxley Stakes): Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen contests whereby EMINENT is the first name on the team sheet, albeit Martyn Meade’s Frankel colt is too short for me at around the 8/11 mark to become involved with from a win perspective.  Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared CONVEY though that said, only one vintage representative has scored in the last nineteen years.  I wonder if it’s purely coincidental that the winner Maraahel hailed from Michael’s stable?

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (11 winners).  13 of the last 19 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, with vintage raiders coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.  POVOINE and TITI MAKFI are the only relevant raiders this time around, with the pair listed in marginal order of preference on account of the draw (three over ten).  Ed Dunlop’s Tadleel was a poor flop for us yesterday having crawled out of the stalls from a wide draw which made it impossible to become involved at the business end of proceedings.  Ryan Moore takes the rdde about stable companion DARK RED here with obvious Placepot credentials at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame via thirteen renewals, statistics which include three (11/2, 9/4 & 10/11) winners.

 

3.35 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril.  Low numbers invariably rule the roost as eight of the last eleven results (see below) confirm.  Six-year-olds have won this event five times during the last decade, whilst ten of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.  Putting the stats and facts together offers a ‘short list’ of MAGIC CIRCLE, WHO DARES WINS AND MY REWARD.  WHO DARES WINS would seemingly have plenty to do from stall fifteen but Ryan Moore’s 44% record when riding for Alan King via seven winners convinces yours truly that it would be foolish to leave him out of the equation. The reserve nomination is awarded to FUN MAC who runs here from a better mark than when finishing third last year from an inferior draw.

Favourite factor: Three of the last nineteen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty three market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):

2-3-13-7 (17 ran-good)

4-15-9-12 (17 ran-good)

11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)

2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)

4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)

13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)

13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)

9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the five renewals to date, with a 25/1 chance being responsible for preventing total domination in the contest thus far.  KACHY is the lone (but worthy) representative on this occasion, with Tom Dascombe’s raider as short as 5/4 in places at the time of writing.  Such cramped odds overnight made it possible to obtain an each way play on GROWL, though those odds are disappearing as I near the end of Thursday’s offering.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4 & 6/4) winners.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

3-2-1 (9 ran-good)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-soft)

 

4.35: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, with KAZAWI and JABBAR expected to land out third Chester Placepot this week, albeit slight losses were incurred via the permutation yesterday.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (10/3) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st April

NEWBURY – APRIL 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £24.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 30.7% units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 – 12/1 (3/1)

Race 2: 58.8% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 69.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 9/4* - 8/1

Race 4: 29.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 16/1 – 10/1 – 10/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 87.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 5/2 – 4/1

Race 6: 92.8% of the units secured the dividend – 100/1 – 5/2 – 6/5*

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 10 (Humbolt Current) & 11 (Mapped)

Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Cool To Mind) & 4 (Defoe)

Leg 3 (2.35): 11 (Tajaanus), 9 (Natural) & 1 (All Out)

Leg 4 (3.10): 4 (Expert Eye) & 6 (Hey Gaman)

Leg 5 (3.45): 22 (Gilgamesh), 19 (Graphite Storm), 20 (Keyser Soze) & 21 (Mazyoun)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (He’s Amazing), 11 (Jack Crow) & 15 (Ta Allak)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford two years ago with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results.  The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’.  I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!

 

**Further notice relates to the weather in this part of the world (Bristol), especially given the overnight “good to soft” quote for Newbury.  Thunderstorms have been forecast to break out in certain areas at any time of the day, whereby you should keep an eye out on the weather front to see how much (if any) rain has fallen at Newbury.  This is especially of interest, given that nearly all the course winners (listed after each race) require some cut in the ground.  If the ground dries up as much as it has done these last few days, connections might withdraw their runners and we know what an effect on the Placepot that scenario can have!  I will update weather in Bristol on my Twitter page leading up to flag fall in the opening event at 1.25.

 

1.25: Only MAPPED is standing up in any shape or form against the favourite HUMBOLT CURRENT with this pair fully expected to pull clear of the remainder with half a furlong or more to run, the pick of which (at a distance) might prove to be Coolongolook.

Favourite factor: Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last ten years (first and third five years ago).  COOL TO MIND was a winner on this corresponding card twelve months ago and the William Haggas raider might not be quite as ‘ground dependent’ as DEFOE who would appreciate showers in the lead up to the contest.  If the four-year-old trend is to be stopped in its tracks, DANEHILL KODIAC could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially following overnight support.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':

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1/1—Call To Mind (good to firm)

2/2—Defoe (2 x soft)

3/10—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

2.35: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ five years ago in a career which spanned over forty years.  Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998.  Richard 'junior’ saddled the ‘Chelmsford winner’ recently and his three runners offer the chance of the Hannon tradition gaining momentum.  NATURAL would not appreciate more cut (connections hoping that any rain in the area fails to materialise), though stable companion ALL OUT would probably benefit for a shower or two.  Richard’s short priced raider TAJAANUS would probably like the ground just as it is at the time of writing given his 3/5 ratio under such conditions.  Whatever the weather then, Richard should secure Placepot positions, with at least one of his representatives reaching the frame.  Givota and course winner Hikmaa are others to consider.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':

1/1—Hikmaa (soft)

 

3.05: Having won five of the last nine and six of the last 15 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card, though a Hannon representative is only visible by its absence on this occasion unfortunately.  Whether the team spied the likes of EXPERT EYE and HEY GAMAN waiting in the wings is an unknown factor of course though either way, there is no disputing the fact that this pair possess leading claims this time around. Connect and Raid offer speculative investors a chance of going close at inflated odds from my viewpoint, though this original ‘dead eight’ event has been thwarted by an early withdrawal.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 19 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'Greenham':

1/1—Expert Eye (good)

1/1—Hey Gaman (soft)

1/1—James Garfield (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 18 of the last 19 renewals on turf between them, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 59 of the last 71 available Placepot positions in the process.  Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 13 contests during the last 19 years whilst claiming 40 Placepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GILGAMESH (Drawn 17/24), GRAPHITE STORM (9), KEYSER SOZE (1) and MAZYOUN (7) according to my slide rule, given that six of the eight four-year-old winners during the last thirteen years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12.  Favourite backers are still enduring nightmares about the well backed 7/2 market leader (Chelsea Lad) which was pulled up before the race had barely begun twelve months ago.  The favourite carried 28.4% of the live Placepot units into the contest adding salt into a very deep wound.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via 18 renewals during the last 19 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 14 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.

Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:

12-8-4-7 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)

21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)

7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)

11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)

11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)

22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)

26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)

14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)

20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)

6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)

14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:

1/3—Graphite Storm (good to soft)

 

4.20: This looks to be a far more open event that was the case in the first heat which opened the Newbury programme.  So much so in fact that three runners are required to try and ensure that we secure the dividend if we were live going into the Placepot finale.  My trio against the remaining twelve contenders consists of HE’S AMAZING, JACK CROW and Roger Varian’s newcomer TA ALLAK.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, whereby the same stat apply. Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.30:

1/1—Rake’s Progress (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 8th November

NOTTINGHAM - NOVEMBER 8

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 4 (Blacklooks), 10 (Burn Some Dust) & 11 (Odds On Oli)

Leg 2 (1.05): 9 (Rhode Island), 13 (Young Rascal) & 12 (Victory Chime)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Glencadam Master), 2 (Best Blue) & 7 (Nibras Galaxy)

Leg 4 (2.15): 4 (Gracious John) & 3 (Clem Fandango)

Leg 5 (2.50): 10 (Fantasy Keeper), 4 (Quick Look) & 6 (Van Gerwen)

Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Ebitda) & 10 (Sarabi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: I wrote a book called ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago at which time I suggested that the majority of Richard Fahey’s two-year-old handicap winners carried a maximum of nine stones – and little changed down the years. I’m not suggesting that ODDS ON OLI can actually win this event though at around the 18/1 mark, Joe Fanning’s mount could represent some value for money from a Placepot perspective.  At the other end of the market, both BURN SOME DUST and BLACKLOOKS won last time out which at least offered proof that they have what it takes to win races, something that arounds two third of the horses in training fail to achieve.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

1.05: 21 of the last 23 winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which is a terrific record, especially at this stage of the season when results can go ‘belly up’.  Money has arrived overnight for the likes of RHODE ISLAND, YOUNG RASCAL and VICTIORY CHIME and with jungle drums failing to beat for any of the other contenders, this trio will carry my Placepot cash.  The latter named pair might have t best of the draw on this occasion.

Favourite factor: 22 of the 31 market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include 10 successful favourites.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – the most recent result offered first):

14-1-2 (17 ran-good)

11-4-15 (13 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-soft)

10-11-9 (11 ran-soft)

9-10-15-14 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-3-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-2-12 (9 ran-soft)

11-9-6 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-8 (12 ran-soft)

6-8-3 (13 ran-soft)

3-6-9 (17 ran-soft)

8-15-14 (17 ran-soft)

8-3-14 (14 ran-heavy)

10-5-12 (16 ran-soft)

5-8-11 (15 ran-soft)

6-8-4 (17 ran-heavy)

11-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-3-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

12-9-14 (14 ran-soft)

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1 & 10 D/H-12 (13 ran-heavy)

2-5-12 (13 ran-heavy)

14-4-2 (15 ran-heavy)

17-6-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

6-3-2 (16 ran-good to soft)

 

1.40: BEST BLUE and NIBRAS GALAXY offer some hope against the majority of the shorter priced contenders I’ll wager, whilst GLENCADAM MASTER (like Rhode Island in the first division of this contest) looks another John Gosden type for the short list.  Any money for GREAT BEYOND could be worth heeding later in the day.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply.

 

2.15: GRACIOUS JOHN was the first name mentioned in the analysis for the first running of this event twelve months ago before going on to score at 12/1.  Such generous odds will not be in place this time around but with CLEM FANDANGO being the only horse in the line up that I genuinely fear, ‘John’ is included in my Placepot mix again.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished just out of the money in fourth place.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Perfect Pasture (good)

1/2—Gracious John (good)

2/7—Classic Pursuit (good & good to soft)

 

2.50: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date.  Recent winners QUICK LOOK and VAN GERWEN boast ticks in both of the trend boxes, whilst soft ground winner FANTASY KEEPER completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Musharrif

1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)

1/1—Jabbarockie (good to soft)

 

3.20: Scott Dixon has raided this venue to good effect this season whereby if you want to include an each alternative each way/Placepot option against hot favourite EBITDA, Scott’s SARABI would be the call.  Sarabi represents the four-year-old vintage which has claimed six of the last eleven renewals.  That said, EBITDA is the logical call from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only (7/2) favourite obliged in this event via the last eleven contests. That said, nne of the relevant winners scored at a top price of 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/23—Ambitious Icarus (good – good to soft – soft)

1/5—Coiste Bodhar (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by 2017 stats at the track and profit/loss to level stakes:

4 runners—John Gosden (3/18 – loss of 4 points)

3—Michael Appleby (7/57 – loss of 9 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (2/10 +4)

3—Scott Dixon (4/12 +32)

3—Mick Easterby (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—John Gallagher (1/7 +4)

3—William Haggas (2/11 +3)

2—Karl Burke (2/21 +13)

2—Roger Charlton (0/6)

2—Clive Cox (6/22 +2)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—David Evans (2/18 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (0/20)

2—Roger Varian (4/23 – loss of 13 points)

2—Ed Walker (0/10)

2—Ian Williams (0/10)

+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

85 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £369.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £641.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Kempton: £60.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 1st November

NOTTINGHAM – NOVEMBER 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £91.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 12 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 6 (Tamkeen), 5 (King’s Proctor) & 9 (UAE Soldier)

Leg 2 (1.00): 5 (Ispolini) & 6 (Petite Palais)

Leg 3 (1.30): 7 (Rosarno), 8 (Monaadhil) & 3 (Maratha)

Leg 4 (2.00): 8 (Master Archer) & 2 (St Mary’s)

Leg 5 (2.30): 9 (Ebitda), 4 (Apricot Sky) & 6 (Fantasy Keeper)

Leg 6 (3.00): 11 (Break The Silence), 8 (World Record) & 7 (Lucky Esteem)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.30: This maiden event is named after John Gosden’s great warrior Golden Horn who won this race as a juvenile before setting out on an incredible career at the highest level.  John scored with a 25/1 chance in one of the divisions twelve months ago, though his only entry today runs in the second heat.  Connections of TAMKEEN and KING’S PROCTOR might prove to be the main beneficiaries, though Roger Varian’s Dansili newcomer UEA SOLDIER is another option to consider.

Favourite factor: Five renewals had slipped by since the previous favourite obliged before one of last year’s (3/1) favourites (via two divisions) obliged. Four of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame.  Talking of market leaders, Golden Horn was not even sent off as favourite (a 15/8 chance) when scoring here back in 2014 on debut.

 

1.00: I have a feeling that this will be the stronger of the two divisions of this contest, with drums having been beating on behalf of Charlie Appleby’s Derby entry ISPOLINI for some considerable time.  Charlie boasts a 51% strike rate relating to his juvenile winners against all of his gold medallists this season, despite the fact that two-year-olds account for just 37% of his total number of runners this season.  Charlie’s Dubawi colt demands centre stage, even though John Gosden saddles a seemingly nice type in PETITE PALAIS.  Rich Identity and Come On Tier have the set a reasonable standard thus far however, whereby the two newcomers in dispatches will have to live up to their billing to lift the prize in a fascinating contest.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stat apply.  Five renewals had slipped by since the previous favourite obliged before one of last year’s (3/1) favourites (via two divisions) obliged. Four of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame.  Talking of market leaders, Golden Horn was not even sent off as favourite (a 15/8 chance) when scoring here back in 2014 on debut.

 

1.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests during which time, two 25/1 chances have scored, whilst a 16/1 vintage representative was beaten a heck in last year’s renewal.  Trainers are seemingly already in the ‘hibernation’ stage however, as the vintage is not represented this time around! The last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12 and putting the stats and facts together, a short list of ROSARNO, MONAADHIL and MARATHA emerges from the gloom in a race which should not prove difficult to win. The trio are listed in order of preference, especially as Charlie Hills (Rosarno) has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect, the other representative have snared a silver medal.  Rosarno has got away with a two pound rise following his win over course and distance three weeks ago.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have won this event during the last eleven years, with six renewals have passed by since the last successful market leader was recorded.  The last six favourites have barely been sighted in all honesty (no Placepot positions gained).

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/3--Maratha (good)

1/1—Finale (soft)

1/1—Rosarno (good to soft)

 

2.00: All five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 which eliminates Saved By The Bell from my perspective in what is currently a nine runner event.   James Fanshawe seems to have lost the winning habit of late, though plenty of his horses have been successful from a Placepot angle, words that sum up his entry MASTER ARCHER almost perfectly, other than the fact that the Mastercraftsman gelding remains a maiden following nine assignments. George Wood reduces today’s burden by a useful three pounds which offers the three-year-old a fine chance to put the record straight.  From a win perspective, MASTER ARCHER enters my ‘last chance saloon’ today.  I’m aware that the relevant claimer takes the selection into the ‘inferior’ sector of the weights, but even yours truly deviates from his self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency from time to time. Gary Moore has his runners in terrific form whereby Whinging Willie is difficult to ignore, though ST MARY’S is rated as the main danger to the selection on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

1/1—Bertie Moon (good to firm)

1/1—Stormin Tom (good to firm)

 

2.30: Three and four-year-olds have shared nine of the last eleven renewals, with the junior representatives edging it via a 5-4 margin in recent years.  Ten of the last twelve winners have carried a minimum burden which leaves us six runners to assess (taking potential claims into account), the pick of which will hopefully prove to be EBITDA with Scott Dixon being back among the winners of late.  The Michael Dods pair APRICOT SKY and MININGOLD might offer challenges at the business end of the contest, whilst course winner FANTASY KEEPER cannot be left out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last nine years.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)

 

3.00: BREAK THE SILENCE is another Scott Dixon runner on the card with definite claims, with Scott’s Rip Van Winkle gelding only having been penalised three pounds for a much deserved win at Brighton recently.  LUCKY ESTEEM could outrun her 14/1 quote from a Placepot angle I’ll wager, whilst WORLD RECORD is a consistent type in this low grade.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham programme.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Berkeley Vale (good to soft)

1/13—Ace Master (heavy)

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Tim Easterby (0/12)

4—Richard Guest (0/17)

3—Andrew Balding (0/3)

3—Karl Burke (1/18 +3)

3—Susan Corbett (No previous runners this season)

3—Richard Fahey (7/42 – loss of 3 points)

3—Gary Moore (No previous runners this season)

2—Michael Appleby (7/55 – loss of 7 points)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (0/6)

2—Mick Channon (5/26 +75)

2—Scott Dixon (4/11 +3)

2—Michael Dods (0/5)

2—Ed Dunlop (3/22 +3)

2—Mick Easterby (2/14 – loss of 4 points)

2—John James Fearn (No previous runners this season)

2—Mark Johnston (2/25 – loss of 17 points)

2—Luke McJannet (No previous runners this season)

2—Paul Midgley (1/14 – loss of 5 points)

2—Lawrence Mullaney (1/2 +2)

2—Roger Varian (4/21 – loss of 11 points)

2—Ed Walker (0/8)

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

95 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: £11.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Taunton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Kempton (A/W): £236.00 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 18th October

WETHERBY - OCTOBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £86.10 (9 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Plato’s Code) & 3 (Amadeus Rox)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Minella Aris), 2 (Work Du Breteau) & 5 (Cyrius Moriviere)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Hello Bertie), 1 (Alfiboy) & 2 (Atlantic Grey)

Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Katgary), 6 (Delusionofgrandeur) & 8 (After Hours)

Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Smooth Stepper), 1 (No Planning) & 4 (Just Mille)

Leg 6 (4.55): 6 (Today Please) & 4 (Little Pop)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: With one of the winners being ridden by a claimer to offset penalties and with no support for any of the other runners transpiring overnight, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the chances of PLATO’S CODE and AMADEUS ROX, particularly from a Placepot perspective.  From what I have seen of the market just now, we could expect an absolutely massive Placepot dividend to be declared if these two horses fail to make the frame.  The obvious reserve nomination is Something Brewing who won at Hexham on soft ground at the firs time of asking, with a subsequent victory being posted on the level under these projected (good) conditions.  Karl Burke has his team in great form, though his raider Midnight Man would have to come on leaps and bounds for jumping hurdles to become involved in the finish.

Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Wetherby card given that it uses to be an event for maidens, whilst the category has changed from Class 5 to Class 4.

 

2.45: This is an interesting Novice Chase event which was won in 2015 by Twelve Roses who went on to finish second in the ‘Pendil’ at Kempton before closing out his season successful when landing (4/9) odds at Ascot in a Class 3 event.  Last year’s gold medallist was Ballybolley who has won three of twelve subsequent events, the latest of which was in Listed company.  Whether any of today’s contenders live up to that type of progress remains to be seen, though there was plenty to like about the jumping of MINELLA ARIS on his first start over the larger obstacles, albeit in an ordinary event at Southwell.  The worry regarding his main challenger WORK DU BRETEAU relates to the drop back in trip. The ‘dark horse’ in the contest is CYRIUS MORIVIERE though proven winning form over fences in my general rule of thumb in this type of event.  Daryl Jacob’s mount has yet to reach the frame in five attempts at this discipline, albeit I note that the seven-year-old was made favourite to win a Class 2 steeplechase at Doncaster earlier in the year.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite found a 4/1 chance too good for him from a win perspective, albeit the market leader secured a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event.  Last year’s even money market leader went one better to event up the score against the ‘old enemy’.   New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Cooking Fat (soft)

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last sixteen renewals which suggests that this year’s lone vintage representative ATLANTIC GREY has to be considered in the overnight mix, even though the Twiston-Davies raider might struggle to actually win the contest.  More logical gold medallists in the field include HELLO BERTIE and ALFIBOY, one of eight Sue Smith runners on the card.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 16 favourites in this event have won, with 3/1-3/1-7/2-9/2 chances having snared gold in the other contests.  17 of the 25 market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended study period, statistics which include 14 winners.

 

3.45: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 6-3 during the last eleven years in the Class 3 ‘Bobbie Renton’ event.  A winner of five of his fourteen races to date (3/7 in chase events), seven-year-old DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR is the only course winner in the race with that success having been gained under good to soft conditions.  I’m not sure there will be enough moisture in the ground for Sue Smith’s grand inmate to score but his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  The other seven-year-old in the line up is KATGARY who has been the subject of win and place support overnight, whilst AFTER HOURS completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last seven renewals of this event, albeit that three of the four jollies (joint favourites were returned last year) that failed to win their respective events finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—Delusionofgrandeur (good to soft)

 

4.20: All ground comes alike to Sue Smith’s ten-year-old inmate NO PLANNING who has won four times around this circuit, very rarely offering a disappointing effort if memory serves correctly.  Whether the ten-year-old can score following a five month break from the track is open to some doubt I guess, whereby I am adding stable companion SMOOTH STEPPER into the Placepot equation alongside JUST MILLY.  SMOOTH STEPPER has finished ‘in the three’ in half (6/12) of his steeplechase assignments thus far, albeit form a Placepot perspective, Danny Cook’s mount needs to finish in the first two on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Wetherby programme.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

4/7—No Planning (2 x good to soft – good – heavy)

1/3—Nautical Nitwit (good)

1/2—Smooth Stepper (good to soft)

1/5—Lough Salt (good to soft)

 

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4.55: Thankfully all ‘dead eight’ contenders remain intact at the time of writing, especially as I have used up my quota of offering three runners in a race enough times earlier on the card.  Upwards and onward in positive fashion by suggesting that TODAY PLEASE and LITTLE POP will land the dividend for us if we have made it safely through to the finale of our favourite wager.  Seven-year-olds have won three of the five renewals whereby TODAY PLEASE gets the marginal call over Little Pop on this occasion.  Six months off the track when asked to carry 11-9 might just stop Nomoreblackjack in his tracks, though Sue Smith’s six-year-old representative is not passed over easily.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader in the Placepot finale following five contests, though three of the six favourites at least reached the frame (exact science).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card on Wednesday – followed by trainer stats during the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:

8 runners—Sue Smith (28/190 – loss of 69 points)

5—Phil Kirby (14/102 – loss of 6 points)

3—Brian Ellison (1/15 – loss of 11 points)

2—Karl Burke (1/12 – loss of 9 points)

2—Micky Hammond (18/208 – loss of 70 points)

2—Alan King (6/35 – loss of 6 points)

2—Malcolm Jefferson (9/67 – loss of 16 points)

2—John Mackie (2/15 – Slight profit)

2—James Moffat (1/16 – loss of 6 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (15/77 –loss of 18 points)

2—Tim Reed (0/5)

2—Henry Oliver (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/36 – loss of 12 points)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £36.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £238.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: This is the replacement meeting for Bath which was abandoned some time ago