Tag Archive for: Nottingham racecourse

Tix Picks, Wednesday 09/10/24

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Ludlow, Nottingham & Sedgefield.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and I fancy another crack at soft ground, so we're off to Nottingham for six races commencing with...

Leg 1 @ 1.45, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Many A Year was a winner at Hamilton sixteen days ago, Bama Lama has been in the first three home in nine of her last eleven starts, winning twice and Diamondsinthesand has made the frame in seven of his last eleven, whilst Quanah is a three-time winner on soft ground and his jockey has been in good form himself of late...

We can add Apache Star to our calculations as he has also has gone well under similar conditions...

...and is now below his last winning mark. The pace is likely to be set by (2) Bama Lama...

..and it's entirely possible that she'll have things his own way, so she's in. (4) Many A Year is the form horse here, so he's in and I think I'll take (1) Apache Star over Diamondsinthesand based on Instant Expert.

Leg 2 @ 2.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 6f...

Eleven run, two are on debut. Five have raced twice with (6) Double Rush's soft ground runner-up finish the pick of the results, whilst of the four making just their second start today, (2) Arctic Voyage's third pace on heavy ground looks the best first effort and he's a half-brother to former group 2 winner Speak In Colours who won nine races 6f and 7f.

In a race where only Arctic Voyage looks like being a front-runner, a repeat of (3) Carbine Harvester's prominent run at Kempton might make him the most notable challenger to the pair above.

Leg 3 @ 2.45, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Miss Alpilles won two starts ago and drops two classes here, the fast-finisher Pique has been the runner-up in each of her last four since winning at Leicester in May and was only beaten by a neck last time out at Yarmouth. Soft-ground winner Dancingwithmyself failed to complete a hat-trick last time out, but is three from six, although he is up in trip here. Divine Presence is 2134 in her last four and Seek And Destroy has a win and a runner-up finish from her last three.

You can make a case for all five of those, which brings us to top weight Plus Point, who herself has failed to make the frame in her last three after starting her handicap career with finishes of 11341. She was heavily beaten last time out and as the sole non-3yo in the race, she's 7lbs 'wrong' at the weights here, so she's off my list.

The pace/draw heat map leans towards (4) Dancingwithmyself, (6) Seek And Destroy & (5) Divine Presence...

...so I'll take these three at the obvious risk of Pique burning my fingers!

Leg 4 @ 3.15, an 8-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m½f...

We've lost two runners here, so only eight are set to race with half of them making their debut! Of those with racecourse experience, Hot Dancer looks the obvious pick after finishing as runner-up in both outings so far, but he is up three classes here.

Elsewhere Royal Officer should have more to give than he has so far. His connections are amongst the shrewdest in the business and whilst spending money is no guarantee of success, this horse was the most expensive purchase at the Craven Breeze-Up sales, costing a cool at 1,000,000 Guineas.

Of the newcomers, Holborn is interesting. His yard are in good form, especially with Rossa Ryan in the saddle and the team have a good record with 2yo debutants on this track...

... so (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer are my tentative trio of picks here.

Leg 5 @ 3.45, a 5-runner, Class 3, 2yo handicap over 1m2f...

The bare form guide says Lazieelunch might stroll home here after three wins on the bounce, but that has taken his mark from 56 to 79 (up 5lbs today) and all three wins were on the all-weather. He has failed to make the frame in three runs on turf, finishing last of 12 on debut, 7th of 9 and 7th of 8, so he's not quite the shoo-in here and the consistent (35323 in his last five) Chelsea Embankment might be the safer option for at least a place.

Manila Thriller hasn't been at her best in two big-money races recently but before those she was a runner-up in back to back Class 2 races (one on soft ground), beaten by a neck each time and she's down in class here, whilst Gentle Warrior took a while to get going last time out, but styed on well from the back to get within a length of the winner over a mile at Redcar. This, however, is tougher as he steps up three classes and I think I'll stick with (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller here.

Leg 6 @ 4.17, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Top-weight Boy Douglas has been placed in half of his twelve starts to date, winning twice including once on heavy ground. A wide draw over an inadequate trip at Chester recently didn't show his true potential, as he'd finished 212203 in his previous six runs.

Lunario finished sixth at Yarmouth last time out, ending a good run of eight top-three (3 wins) finishes and he could be dangerous down in class today. Native Souvenir makes a handicap debut after a heavy ground win on debut was followed by a three length defeat on Polytrack. Pressure's On was a runner-up LTO and Climate Action has been the runner-up in three of her five starts to date.

Ardbraccan has been the bridesmaid in each of her last two and Mr Swivell was third in his last two and has placed in five of his last seven, winning twice. Desperate Dan has been in the frame in two of his last three and with Groovy Baby also in the frame in three of her five starts, you can make a case for several runners here to finish in the first three home.

All nine score well on Instant Expert, which doesn't really help us too much...

...but today's draw allied with the field's pace scores over their last few races does highlight some runners...

...and in a tricky affair to call, I'm inclined to take all three (3) Native Souvenir, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan, along with (4) Pressure's On who ran really well as a soft ground runner-up last time out off an unchanged mark of 77 and with his form reading 335122 of marks of 75 to 77, I prefer him to Lunario for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Apache Star, (2) Bama Lama & (4) Many A Year

Leg 2: (2) Arctic Voyage, (3) Carbine Harvester & (6) Double Rush

Leg 3: (4) Dancingwithmyself, (5) Divine Presence & (6) Seek And Destroy

Leg 4: (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer

Leg 5: (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller

Leg 6: (3) Native Souvenir, (4) Pressure's On, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!

Chris



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Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Catterick, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Nottingham, where the going is said to be heavy for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Nottingham, a 4-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Jowddah has been a runner-up on both starts so far and possibly bumped into a decent sort last time out in the shape of Sandtrap. She's down two classes here in a weaker-looking field and she's my most likely winner and backed up by some impressive trainer place stats...

That said, 2yo maidens don't always go to plan and Tattycoram showed signs of promise/ability on her Ascot debut four weeks ago on soft ground and would be the main danger here, I'd have thought.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 5f...

Eight run here, but the bookies think it's a three-horse race. They're not always right, but they probably are here. Veblen Good looks the one to beat based on his soft ground runner-up finish on debut and Karl Burke's horses make the frame more often than not on their second start.

After that it looks like a two-way battle between Nad Alshiba Snow and Think Of A Name for the runner-up spot and that's where bottom weight Nad Alshiba Snow was last time out for the second time in five outings. She has already raced at Group 3 and was also beaten by less than three lengths at Class 2, so should be in the mix once again.

Think Of A Name didn't seem suited by the Tapeta at Newcastle last time out, but ran enough to finish second on his previous (and only second) run at Newbury in July and should appreciate a return to turf and also a drop in trip. Safety first approach here, I'll take all three!

Leg 3 : 3.10 Nottingham, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Another trappy little contest here with only Lilly's Bet of the six looking like they might be out of their depth. Stirrup Cup sets the standard on recent results, having won a soft ground Class 5 Nursery at Carlisle, before a Class 2 runner-up finish at Ayr last time out and he's the only runner here not stepping up at least two classes.

Shazani was only denied by a short head in an other Class 2 heavy ground nursery at Hamilton two starts ago, attwepting to make all and getting caught on the line and the winner that day has won again since. Blewburton won on soft ground on his debut at Leicester in late-April before a couple of third place finishes on ground eventually too quick for him. He didn't stay 7f on his handicap debut last time out, but a drop in trio and a return to much softer ground could be the key here.

The going might not suit Rare Change here, as all seven career efforts have come on good or quicker ground and after a couple of promising third placed finishes on his first two handicap starts, seems to be regressing, whilst it's a similar situation for the going for Eighteencaratgold who hasn't managed to make the frame in four outings to date.

Instant Expert says to focus on the top half of the card...

...which allies with my own thoughts above, so again I'll go belt and braces with Shazani, Blewburton & Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Four Adaay won LTO on soft ground and has made the frame in four of her last seven, whilst Northern Spirit comes her on a three-race run reading 211, After going down by a neck at Newcastle, he has won at Southwell and was impressive landing an 18-runner handicap at York last time out. Fantasy Master completes a trio of LTO winners, coming here off the back of winning a 14-runner handicap at Doncaster, but he is up in trip today. Elsewhere, The Ridler was a good fifth in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time out and had been placed in three of his previous four starts, Hierarchy has made the frame in his last two, Music Society has been the runner-up in each of his last two whilst bottom weight So Grateful has finished 323 in his last three, so plenty look like being in decent nick.

As with the previous race, the top of the card seem to tick more Instant Expert boxes than their rivals...

..and I'm definitely keen on the first two, Northern Spirit and Fantasy Master. As intimated above, you can then make a case for several of the remainder, with that excellent run at Ayr in my mind, I've a marginal preference for The Ridler, but I'm concerned that Four Adaay might upset my plans!

Leg 5 : 4.20 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Another tricky contest with several holding claims including It's All About You who is 242311 in his last six outings. He won't mind the heavy ground, having won on similar at Ffos Las over 2m last time out, so we shouldn't have any stamina concerns either.

Expressionless is 12712 in his last five, although he's not as proven on softer ground as the previous runner, he has won over course and distance. Clever Relation was third two starts ago, beaten by less than a length over today's trip and was the winner of a Class 3 seller last time out and my form shortlist also includes Knight Templar. he's the sole 3yo in the race, so gets a very useful 7lbs allowance and he comes here on a run reading 2211 from his last four on Turf, which has a soft ground win amongst it. He's 2 from 2 since moving from Sir Mark Prescott's yard and will be in the mix here, I'm sure.

Instant Expert throws Alpine Stroll's name into the hat, as he'll not mind the ground either...

When I initially looked at the race on Tuesday evening, the two I wanted to be with were It's All About You and Expressionless and now having looked closer at the recent form etc, I think Knights Templar might even beat the pair of them with the 7lbs allowance and the upturn in fortune from a change of yard. His new handler has a decent record of getting LTO winners back in the frame, albeit off a small sample size...

...Knights Templar gets chosen here too.

Leg 6 : 4.55 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

And we end with another 8-runner contest that the bookies and I both agree might well be a three-horse race. Elladonna is two from three and three from six. She is admittedly unproven/untried on soft (or worse) ground, but has won over course and distance and is in great form, as is Prometeo who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Kempton and Doncaster over similar trips. Again, he hasn't raced on anything softer than good to soft, but was a runner-up beaten by just a neck on his sole run under that going condition. He's the highest-rated runner in the race, but as a 3yo gets a 4lbs allowance here.

Amancio is the other 3yo in the contest, so also gets that 4lbs allowance and although he doesn't win as often as his connections/followers would like (just 1 from 16 so far), he has 10 top-three finishes from his last 14 outings, did win on soft ground at Haydock in April and has finished 2242 in his last four, going down by just half a length on soft ground last time out. Elsewhere, we should mention Ardabraccan who won here on soft ground back in April and had three runner-up finishes from her last five runs (25722) and possibly Giselles Defence, who has two wins and two silvers from his last five, was a soft ground winner at Pontefract in May and shows up pretty well on Instant Expert...

Giselles Defence also throws another spanner into the works by being one of those likely to race furthest forwards...

I was going with both Elladonna and Prometeo, but neither are proven on the going and I prefer Elladonna of those two. I'm still going with Amancio who ticks form, Instant Expert and pace boxes and I think I'm going to take a chance on Giselle's Defence at the expense of Prometeo and hope that call doesn't bite me on the backside later!

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Jowddah & (4) Tattycoram

Leg 2: (6) Think of A Name, (7) Veblen Good & (8) Nad Alshiba Snow

Leg 3: (1) Shazani, (2) Blewburton & (3) Stirrup Cup

Leg 4: (1) Northern Spirit, (2) Fantasy Master & (5) The Ridler

Leg 5: (2) It's All About You, (3) Expressionless & (9) Knights Templar

Leg 6: (1) Elladonna, (3) Giselle's Defence & (7) Amancio

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A quick heads-up, I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after tomorrow's piece (Thursday), I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/06/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 6.10 Kempton
  • 7.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

And with Francesco Baracca, Muttasil and Marmaduke Lemon from the TS report all taking each other on, I think I'll have a look at their race, the 4.27 Nottingham, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed trip just 15yds shy of 1m½f after a 20yd rail movement. The going is set to be good and here's the card...

An inexperienced field with an average of under 5 races each (61 total races between the 13 of them), but Double Jump, Phoenix Passion, Francesco Baracca, Ribble Radiant and Roman Secret have all won at least one race with Phoenix Passion having won three of his eight starts and he comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Roman Secret also won last time out; Muttasil and Seamore are the only two yet to make the frame after 4 and 3 efforts respectively.There's plenty of changes according to the card, as we see Double Jump, Marmaduke Lemon and Francesco Baracca dropping down a class, whilst Ribble Radiant is down two steps. It's also handicap debut day for Marmaduke Lemon, Drink Dry, Seamore and Baynoona, who also runs for Harry Charlton for the first time today. Francesco Baracca and Muttasil run in handicap company for just the second time. We've also a couple of runners trying new headgear out with Drink Dry and Ribble Radiant wearing cheekpieces and a tongue tie respectively.

Only three of these, Seamore, Roman Secret, Great Chieftain have raced here before with all three failing to win their sole visit, but Roman Secret and Great Cheiftain did at least make the frame. We also don't have much in the way of wins at this trip, but Roman Secret, Phoenix Passion and Francesco Baracca have all managed to do it...

We don't get much help from the win side of things, but that's hardly surprising from a field that has won just 7 of 61 races so far, especially when Instant Expert eyecatcher Phoenix Passion is 3 from 8! Roman Secrtet looks next best, but it's a low bar and I think we're going to need to check the place stats...

These are more helpful, even if only to consolidate Phoenix Passion's position. Drink Dry, Francesca Barraca and Roman Secret (2nd best so far) also have multiple places in one or more category and after eliminating any of them without any green in either going, class, course or distance from the place graphic, I'm only taking these forward to draw analysis...

...and they're pretty much spread across the track, so I need to see if there's anything to be had from the draw in this type of contest...

I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias at play here, but stalls 4-6 have good win records, as does stall 11, so could be more good news for Phoenix Passion, as well as Drink Dry, Great Chieftain and Marmaduke Lemon, whilst there seems to be even less of a bias in the place stats.

It's a totally different story when it comes to pace, though, as horses running in mid-division or further back have struggled to win under these conditions...

...whilst leaders have gone well, but have seemed vulnerable to the prominent stalking types. That said, I'd rather be on an out and out front-runner than a back marker here and based on the field's last three outings (because some only have three to choose from!)...

Roman Secret looks like the pace-setter here with the likes of Show Biz Kid, Phoenix Passion and Ribble Radiant the ones in closes attendance. I'd also expect Seamore and Muttasil to be fairly close to the pace too in what could be a trappy affair.

Summary

The one horse whose name keeps popping up is Phoenix Passion and he has to be my pick here. I'm not surprised to see him installed as the early (3.40pm Tuesday) favourite with Bet365, but I was rather hoping for a little more than 10/3, but beggars can't be choosers.

Elsewhere, Roman Secret also won last time out and was my 2nd best from Instant Expert, he's likely to set the pace here and if she's race-fit after a 201-day layoff, she could be one for the E/W bettors amongst us at a current price of 8/1.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/11/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fakenham
  • 2.55 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Kempton
  • 7.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two runners to consider...

30-day form..

5-year course form...

...from which, the highest-rated race is the 2.55 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Rambuso Creek is our only LTO winner, but Magnificence, Fantasy Master, Punchbowl Flyer and bottom-weight Impressor all had top-3 finishes, In fact, Impressor has made the frame in 11 of his last 12 starts, winning four times. Only Came From The Dark and Punchbowl Flyer are winless in seven or more (12 & 18 actually!)

Spoof, Woolhampton and Punchbowl Flyer are the quickest turned back out after racing against each other nine days ago in a race I covered here at Windsor, which went like this...

...but their rivals have all raced inside the last 40 days, so all should be tuned up for this. Those three from the Windsor race all now drop down a class, as do Came From The Dark and Strong Johnson, but Magnificence, Rambuso Creek and the consistent Impressor all all up a level.

Only Magnificence and Punchbowl Flyer have yet to win over this trip, whilst only Spoof and Fantasy Master have won here at Nottingham with both having scored over course and distance. Mind you, the latter has had a fair few cracks at this venue, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Spoof, Punchbowl Flyer and Impressor would be most at home with the underfoot conditions. Spoof, however, has a poor win record at Class 3, as do Fantasy Master and Ey Up It's Maggie, but none of this field have exactly set the world alight in this grade. Fantasy Master leads Spoof 3-1 in terms of track wins, but has suffered ten defeats here and he's hardly the master over 5f and nor is Woolhampton. With so little green above, I think we need to check place form from those races...

...which don't really aid the Class 3 claims of Spoof or Fantasy Master, whilst Punchbowl Flyer looks a win or nothing type at this level. Fantasy Master's course form, however, looks pretty good now with him making the frame in 4 of his 10 defeats to go with his 3 wins.

I generally don't expect to see much of a pace bias in a medium-sized field over a straight sprint and despite having to make some logical tweaks to the parameters to get a workable data-set, I still think that's there's no huge bias here either...

Yes, those drawn centrally have the slight upper hand in terms of wins, but has the same number of placed runners as the low draw. If anything, I'd say the higher drawn runners had whatever slight advantage there might be to be had. All that said, it's still a sprint and it's usually a case of fastest away has the best chance of making the frame and you can't win if you're not in the frame and if we look back those 90-odd races above, we see...

...that leaders make the frame most often and also go on to win a larger chunk of the races, which might be good news for both Impressor and Punchbowl Flyer from oposite ends of the draw, if they run like they ran last time out...

Obviously there's no guarantees that will happen, of course, but Punchbowl Flyer has lost 18 races in a row and almost broke that run by switching to front-running last time out when only beaten late on by a fairly short favourite. What I'm more certain of, is that Woolhampton, Came From The Dark and Rambuso Creek lack early pace and this could be an issue for them.

Summary

Punchbowl Flyer is on a long losing run, but ran really well last time out. He loves heavy ground, he's down in class and now runs off a dangerously low mark of 76. He's on my shortlist here along with former course and distance winner Fantasy Master, who might not have a great record at Class 3, but has a win and three places from just five efforts at Class 2. He loves it here at Nottingham and should be in the shake-up today.

These are the two I like best here and I suspect there'll not be much between them, but if pushed I'd take the 11/2 Punchbowl Flyer to just about beat the 7/1 Fantasy Master, who is pretty close to E/W territory for me., whilst I wouldn't be too surprised if the similarly 7/1 priced Spoof ran a big race here.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/09/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Holkham Bay would be of the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.20 Cork
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 4.15 Cork
  • 4.35 Beverley
  • 8.00 Newcastle

To be honest, none of the UK 'free' races nor those on The Shortlist float my boat today, so I'm looking elsewhere for my column. Nottingham has a handful of Class 2 handicaps, the middle one of which is the 4.25 Nottingham, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a eft-handed 1m2f on good to soft/soft ground...

Olympicus and Eton College both won last time out, but Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross all have wins in their recent formlines. None of these raced at Class 2 last time around, in fact they're all up in class by two to four levels and all raced in the last six weeks.

Warren Hill and Damascus Steel are former course and distance winners, but only Eton College (1m½f) of their rivals has won here before, but all bar Gordon Grey (first-time cheekpieces today), Hakuna Babe, Eton College, The Conqueror and Corsican Caper (first-time blinkers today) have won over today's trip, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which looks good for Golden Maverick, based on the going and the trip. He's never been to Nottingham before and has no Class 2 experience, but neither really have his rivals. Jewel Maker looks up against on the going, though, failing to win any of 18 attempts and the place data below says he's only made the frame in three of those races...

The ones faring best on the place data would be Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill and this quartet are drawn together in stalls 7 to 10 over a track and trip that has marginally favoured those drawn lowest...

...and also those preferring to set the pace...

Again, the bias isn't huge but when you align the draw stats that just about favour the low drawn horses with the pace stats that are slightly for those setting the tempo, the pace/draw heat map shows more of a combined bias...

...with low drawn leaders making the frame in 13 of 29 efforts (44.8%), going on to win six times (20.7%)...

Sadly, there aren't many here who like to lead and I suspect we're in for a falsely run race...

Summary

We're not actually getting much help from the pace/draw angles here but we know that Olympicus, Eton College, Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross are all in decent nick and that Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill caught my eye on Instant Expert, which makes the trio of Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill of interest to me here.

This trio are priced at 15/2, 4/1 jt fav and 4/1jt fav respectively and if pushed to make a bet on one to win, I think I'd lean towards Golden Maverick with Eton College a possible E/W bet, especially with some firms paying 4 places.

 



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/07/23

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.35 Beverley
  • 7.30 Nottingham
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 9.00 Nottingham

The contest between the two Southwell runners from TS should be the one to focus on from a Class perspective, but it's only a 5-runner that looks like being a three horse race, so we'll tackle the last race of the night, the 9.00 Nottingham, a moderate-looking, 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on soft ground...

Not much recent winning form on display here, but both Star Zinc and Jack Daniel won their penultimate outings, whilst Calypso has been knocking on the door with a recent run of form reading 2332. He, along with Classic Speed and Cariad will benefit from an 8lb allowance as the trio of three year olds in this race, with the latter receiving between 10 and 22lbs from her rivals.

She is the only runner stepping up in class here and is one of two females in the race, the other being the top weight Zarabanda. Lion's Dream, Dandy Maestro, Star Zinc and Classic Speed all drop down a class and the latter makes just a secoing handicap appearance almost 10 weeks after his last run.

None of his rivals have been off as long, as they've all raced in the last seven weeks with Cariad having been seen as recently as last Wednesday at Yarmouth; she'll find today's soft ground far different than the seaside good to firm from last time out!

Lion's Dream, Calypso and Classic Speed have yet to win over a similar trip to this one and our sole course winner, Dandy Maestro, has a win and a runner-up finish (2 starts ago) from two efforts over course and distance.

Instant Expert has a limited amount of data, but it does highlight that Jack Daniel is the sole soft ground winner and also one of just three Class 5 flat victors in this field...

...and he looks the pick of the bunch on those albeit small numbers. Such is the lack of relevant data, we should consider the place stats to hopefully suggest who else might like the conditions...

...and I'd probably say Dandy Maestro's hat was now firmly in the ring too. he's drawn centrally in stall 5 just outside Jack Daniel, so it'll now be useful to see if that's a positive or a negative, based on previous past contests under similar conditions here at Nottingham.

The initial indications are that a low draw should be avoided if possible...

...but the PRB3, stall-by-stall and place data seem to suggest that there'll not be a great deal in it from a draw perspective...

Stall 2 doesn't look great, but there's no reason why just one stall should perform so badly, so I'm going to treat that as an anomaly here and move on to see what if any pace is likely to be in the race and if we look at the field's last four outings, we see that the likes of Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream are the most likely front-runners, whilst Star Zinc will probably be the back marker in the early stages...

...and if we look back at those 60-plus races from the draw data, we find that those setting the pace have done best here...

...which is great news for Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream and with a central draw, leading will certainly be the best policy for Jack Daniel...

Dandy Maestro would be best advised to follow Jack Daniel and run like he did here two starts ago, when a runner-up in a higher grade.

Summary

Jack Daniel ticks the most boxes for me, he won two starts ago and has won over this trip. Soft ground won't be an issue and he has the ideal pace/draw setup to score here. The tissue forecast of 11/2 would be very nice indeed, but I suspect we'll have to take a point of more off that price. Dandy Maestro is interesting as a possible E/W pick and the tissue prices of 10/1 do materialise, then it's a yes from me, I wouldn't go lower than 8's on this one.

The biggest danger to either/both of them is the 3yr old Calypso who comes here in fine form (2332) and has that useful weight allowance. Much will depend on how he handles soft ground for the first time, but he should be in the mix here.

Good luck, however you play this one and a quick heads-up that I'm away all day Tuesday, so my next column will appear on Wednesday for Thursday's racing, where Instant Expert will be our free feature.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/05/23

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Vitralite is of the most immediate interest, whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.40 Brighton
  • 6.25 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 7.00 Ballinrobe
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

I suspect Vitralite will be very popular based on those Shortlist scores, but that might make him shorter than he should be and it might also up the door for some reasonably priced E/W bets in the 8.25 Nottingham, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on show here, but Vitralite is 113 in his last three outings. Eleven eleven won four starts ago, but the rest of the field are winless in five or more. Vitralite is, however, up in class here, as are Bobby Dassler, Eleven eleven, Pysanka, Long Call and Back from Dubai. The last of those stepping up in class is also making a debut for a new yard, as is Tipperary Moon.

Pysanka is running in a handicap for the second time and now wears a visor for the first time, as he seeks a first win. Fellow 4 yr old Marayel is the only class dropper after finishing third last time out, but that was 113 days ago and only Pysanka (131 days) has been off the track longer. The other nine have all raced in the last five weeks.

No previous course winners on display, but Vitralite, Under Fox, Eleven Eleven and Back from Dubai have all won at a similar trip, whilst Instant Expert backs this up and then tells us that there's not much winning form at either going nor class!

...and that we might need to consult place form in the hope of some positivity...

That's a little better but not great, fingers crossed that draw & pace can help us more!

Or perhaps not, for although those drawn highest haven't done brilliantly in similar races, there's not a massive draw bias here...

...as for pace, those races above have favoured those setting the pace...

...which based on recent outings might be good news for Bobby Dassler and possibly Back from Dubai...

...but there's not really much pace in the race.

Summary

This hasn't taken long, has it? Sadly, it's a far poorer race than I thought it might be and there's no mileage in wasting too much time on mediocrity.

Vitralite is probably the least poor runner in the race, so would be favourite almost by default, but he's 8lbs higher than his last win two starts ago and 4lbs higher than when beaten last time out at a lower class, so whilst he may well be the winner, I'm not backing him at 7/4. That's too short for me, but you make your own decisions about that.

He's the form horse albeit at Class 6, Instant Expert didn't help us, nor did the draw, but pace pointed towards Bobby Dassler and Back from Dubai. Bobby Dassler is probably the main threat to Vitralite, but as the 5/1 second favourite, he's too short for me to go E/W. As for Back from Dubai, he'd be an unlikely winner, but is surely better than the eighth place finish on his last run for Roy Bowring. If Kevin Frost can get him running anywhere like he was at nearby Southwell over the winter and you've got an active Paddy Power account, then 14/1 E/W with 4 places might not be the worst bet you've ever made, but the smart money is here is the money you leave in your pocket and walk away.

It's more than fine to consider a race and then not have a bet, in fact we positively encourage it here at Geegeez.



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Roving Reports: HQ, and Closer To Home

My workload is starting to pick up as the season progresses, and now the evening racing has kicked in, even more so, writes David Massey. I shall tell you about the knock-on effect of that for me later, but let's start this episode at the beginning of the month, and two days at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket.

You'll notice only the two - we decided not to go on the Friday, as the Silver Ring, which is where we will be working both days, has next to no business that day. So we set off on the Saturday morning, and in this case the "we" is myself and the good lady, who has purloined a free ticket from a friend of hers. The forecast is mixed, with some showers due early afternoon but should pass through quickly. I trust the weather forecasts as much as I'd trust having my palm read to determine if it'll rain or not, so the wet weather gear is packed.

We arrive in plenty of time to get set up, and start betting. It is extremely slow to get going, with families still coming in as the first goes off. However, before that, the rain begins, and up go the bookmakers' umbrellas, along with a whole row of gazebos as families that have been a bit more forward-thinking take shelter.

The rain gets a bit heavier and behind us are some very dark clouds indeed. It soon becomes fairly clear that the wet stuff is set in. Worse, it appears to be coming in sideways. When rain falls directly on you from overhead it isn't so bad, as the umbrella does its job and keeps the majority of it off you. When it comes at you from the side, everything gets wet. You're not only trying to protect yourself but all the electrics - if your printer packs up as the damp gets in, that's game over - and a second pair of arms is called for.

We take very little on the first race, which is just as well as the jolly old favourite wins. The two joint-favourites are hand-in-hand over the line for a 1-2 in the next, too, but it hardly matters as the rain is absolutely killing the business.

It gets heavier still. One family in front of us packs up and goes home. Two races. That's all they have seen. I hope they feel they had value for money but, equally, the idea of going somewhere warmer and drier appeals to me right now, too. I fancy Probe a bit in the next and give it a cheer as it wins. At least I've got a few quid in my pocket after that, even if the firm haven't. I really don't need to tell you how the rest of the day went, as the rain did not go anywhere and it was quite literally a wash-out. After five races the water-resistant coat I'm wearing becomes resistant no longer, and my shirt underneath develops some big damp patches. I have to go back to the car and change. The deluge eventually stops as the last gets underway. The least said about this day, the better.

Sunday comes and is a different kettle of fish. The sun is shining to the point I need sunscreen, and there are families pouring in on what is traditionally a family day. The puppet show (the same noisy one as last year, but mercifully further away from us this year) is in full swing, the inflatables are proving popular and the ice-cream van has a queue all afternoon. I wouldn't mind a 20% share in that action today.

We get going an hour before the first. It isn't long before a bloke, who appears to have been on the early shift at Wetherspoons, comes up to me. I shall try and give you an idea of the conversation.

"Is this the first race?"

"Yes mate, it is."

(Long pause)

"And these are the runners?"

"That's right."

(Long pause)

"For the first?"

"Yes."

(Very long pause)

"Can I have a bet in the second race?"

"After this one you can, yes."

(Long pause)

"Is this the first race?"

And so on. He gets bored after ten minutes and goes to the bookmaker next door, and asks exactly the same questions. He looks absolutely out of it. I shout over to Tony, the bookie next door, that he can have him all afternoon if he likes! For some reason Tony doesn't want him. I cannot imagine why...

It is, as you'd expect for a Silver Ring, all small money we are taking but surprisingly we do plenty of business on debit cards, too. HMS President is a good result and so is Running Lion in the Pretty Polly, with Queen Of Fairies one of the best backed horses all afternoon. There are a lot of first-time punters, and as is always the case, one of them has backed the first three winners. I let her into the secret that "we always let you win first time" before she promptly gets the four-timer up with Via Sistina.

Now, there has been a distinct waft of weed in the air all afternoon (sadly, all too common on racecourses these days) and the lady with the drugs dog is in the area to try and find the source. It doesn't take the dog long to latch onto the scent and he's pulling her towards someone.

It's only matey boy who was such a pain in the backside before the first that she's after. Suddenly, that conversation makes a bit more sense.

Laughably, he's off and trying to get away from the dog. "STAY THERE!!" the handler bellows at him, and he knows the game is up. He sinks to his knees in despair, his face pleading for mercy. She's having none of it, and within a couple of minutes he's escorted off the premises by three security guards.

"Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio!!" goes the chant as he's marched off. Myself and Tony are killing ourselves laughing as he tries to get a roll-up in his mouth, only to miss, and isn't allowed to go back and fetch it. He seems more upset about that than the fact he's got to leave.

Anyway, back to the main event, and the 1000 Guineas. Business is solid and I take a £200 bet on the favourite, which stays in the satchel as Mawj proves too good. It's that good a result I'm sent for four Magnums from the ice-cream van, a bargain at fourteen quid. And they moan about the margins that they bet to in the ring.

Two races to go and, from nowhere, I have a punter that's having a few quid on. He has £200 on Hectic and £100 on Saxon King. Where's he been all afternoon? Has he got any mates that want a bet, I ask him with a smile?

He backs the winner and with the £600 he collects, has £300 back on Lion Of War. Sadly there's no good ending for him as it finishes a well-held fourth. I enquire as to whether there might be a second round of Magnums only to be told I was lucky to get the first one!

There are cars stuck in the car park on the way out, parts of it have just turned to mud after yesterday, and the tractor is going to be busy. Not for us though, and after getting paid it's out and we're on the way home.

The following Saturday, with so many meetings, saw me pick up a day for a firm I don't usually work for. Martyn Of Leicester (for it was he) had pitches at Ascot, Leicester, Nottingham and Warwick, a total of 16 in all, and that requires a lot of workers. I'd been asked a couple of weeks ago if I'd like a home fixture and so I worked the rails for him at Nottingham on what was their Ladies Day.

I often moan about how soulless Nottingham can be but there was no lack of atmosphere on Saturday; the place was buzzing with a great crowd up for an enjoyable day in the sun. All the other rails pitches had three workers on them, but I was on my own ("just do your best" says Martyn; I informed him I always do my best) and was busy from the word go. Most of the punters seem to know what they are doing, always helpful, and the first two results go our way. Come race four, though, and I have a problem.

The 10 horse, Showalong, wins easily but one bloke brings a losing slip up, saying I gave him £20 number 2 rather than £20 number 10. It's entirely possible I misheard him - a genuine mistake if so, particularly with a loud tannoy system - but I point out to him it's too late to do anything about it now. It clearly says on every ticket we print "please check your ticket" as I can change a bet beforehand, but he's not happy. I tell him I can get the ring inspector if he wishes but he's not listening, he's stormed off with a few choice words regarding myself getting a hearing test. The other 500-odd punters I deal with over seven races have no such problems. Please, ladies and gentlemen, check your tickets...

At the end of the day Martyn is delighted with the efforts I've made. He's had a winning day and he pays me well, with a good top-up on my wages. Better still, I only have a five-mile journey home. If only all tracks were five miles from my house. I could work twice a day, at least until the end of August...

- DM



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Stat of the Day, 30th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

8.10 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 8/1 BOG 6th at 8/1 (In touch, pushed along over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £12,129 to the winner... 

Why?...

I'm going to keep it short and hopefully sweet today, starting with the racecard...

...as we bid a fond farewell to SotD with an in-form 4 yr old gelding hailing from an in-form yard with a good 2 year record on the Flat (and over middle distances) albeit from small sample sizes.

Andaleep has been first past the post in each of his last three starts (although subsequently disqualified on the first of the three), all over this 1m2f trip and he's 2 from 2 at 16-20 days rest and 2 from 2 under today's jockey William Carver.

Trainer Graeme McPherson is undoubtedly best known for his NH exploits, having sent out 796 NH runners since the start of 2016, whilst his record on the Flat over the same period stands at...

...and these include of relevance today...

  • 6 from 18 (33.3%) at 1m2f to 1m6f
  • 6 from 13 (46.2%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 5 from 7 (71.4%) at 16-20 dslr
  • 3 from 8 (37.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • 3 from 5 (60%) over 1m2f
  • 2 from 4 (50%) with LTO winners
  • 2 from 4 (50%) in September
  • 2 from 2 (100%) for jockey William Carver
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) here at Nottingham...

...whilst those sent off at 9/4 to 11/1 over 1n2f to 1m6f some 16-20 days after last run have finished 121111 with the 83.3% strike rate yielding profits of 26.75pts (+445.8% ROI) at Industry SP or 30pts (+500% ROI) at Betfair SP, including 3 wins from 3 at today's trip...

...steering us gently towards... a final 1pt win bet on Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 2.00am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: STAT OF THE DAY WILL BE REPLACED BY THE NEW RACING INSIGHTS FEATURE FROM THIS EVENING.

On behalf of Matt and myself, I'd like to thank you all for your support and loyalty over the years, especially when things haven't always gone our way : I really do appreciate it. The lack of pressure from the readers have ensured that I could approach each new day without a monkey on my back and I hope I can count on the same leeway/latitude for our new venture.

Chris



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