Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/09/23 geegeez.co.uk

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Holkham Bay would be of the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

1.20 Cork
2.25 Lingfield
4.15 Cork
4.35 Beverley
8.00 Newcastle

To be honest, none of the UK 'free' races nor those on The Shortlist float my boat today, so I'm looking elsewhere for my column. Nottingham has a handful of Class 2 handicaps, the middle one of which is the 4.25 Nottingham, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a eft-handed 1m2f on good to soft/soft ground...

Olympicus and Eton College both won last time out, but Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross all have wins in their recent formlines. None of these raced at Class 2 last time around, in fact they're all up in class by two to four levels and all raced in the last six weeks.

Warren Hill and Damascus Steel are former course and distance winners, but only Eton College (1m½f) of their rivals has won here before, but all bar Gordon Grey (first-time cheekpieces today), Hakuna Babe, Eton College, The Conqueror and Corsican Caper (first-time blinkers today) have won over today's trip, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which looks good for Golden Maverick, based on the going and the trip. He's never been to Nottingham before and has no Class 2 experience, but neither really have his rivals. Jewel Maker looks up against on the going, though, failing to win any of 18 attempts and the place data below says he's only made the frame in three of those races...

The ones faring best on the place data would be Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill and this quartet are drawn together in stalls 7 to 10 over a track and trip that has marginally favoured those drawn lowest...

...and also those preferring to set the pace...

Again, the bias isn't huge but when you align the draw stats that just about favour the low drawn horses with the pace stats that are slightly for those setting the tempo, the pace/draw heat map shows more of a combined bias...

...with low drawn leaders making the frame in 13 of 29 efforts (44.8%), going on to win six times (20.7%)...

Sadly, there aren't many here who like to lead and I suspect we're in for a falsely run race...

Summary

We're not actually getting much help from the pace/draw angles here but we know that Olympicus, Eton College, Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross are all in decent nick and that Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill caught my eye on Instant Expert, which makes the trio of Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill of interest to me here.

This trio are priced at 15/2, 4/1 jt fav and 4/1jt fav respectively and if pushed to make a bet on one to win, I think I'd lean towards Golden Maverick with Eton College a possible E/W bet, especially with some firms paying 4 places.

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