No play yesterday, as the filly Loreto got herself so worked up in the stalls that she had to be withdrawn for her own safety, and also that of her jockey. That proved to be a disappointing end to a largely frustrating week and I'm hoping to get this week off to a better start, but today looks like a typically unappealing Monday.
However, it's not all doom and gloom, as I think we might just have a little gem for you over in West Yorkshire. It is, of course, the dark side of the Pennines to us Lancastrians, but needs must!
Today's contest is a Class 4 Handicap over the minimum 5 furlong trip. The ground is already declared as soft and one horse from the original 16 has already been pulled out, so E/W backers will now only get 3 places (unless you're on at the exchanges) for the...
The overnight/early morning going at Pontefract was officially declared at soft, but from past experience the course doesn't have the best drainage and further rain is forecast / happening now (depending on when you read this!). I wouldn't be surprised if that official going report doesn't change to include the dreaded H word later.
With the testing conditions underfoot and the fact that it's a 5f dash, I've gone with Geoffrey Harker's filly Breezolini. Mr Harker's Eijazz proved to be a bit of a disappointment to us last week, but I'm hoping his filly can redress the balance today.
Today's 5 furlong trip is the optimum distance for Breezolini, as her record at this distance reads 833111. Her career record is only 3 wins and 6 places from 24 outings, so to be 3 wins and 2 places from 6 at 5 furlongs speaks for itself.
So, we know she likes the trip, but will she get the course? Well, despite not winning any of her previous three outings at Ponty, she has finished third on two occasions, opening up the prospect of another place finish today and her record on soft ground reads 201, whilst her figures on heavy ground are 132. So we've moderate course form and a good record in soft to heavy going, including an excellent 2nd place at Ayr last time out of today's mark, having already landed 2 soft-ground handicaps over 5f earlier this year.
All things considered, I was pretty happy to see Stan James offering a generous-looking 7/1 BOG this morning, so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Breezolini at 8/1 BOG, but as always, I advise that you...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Stat-of-the-Day24.png150150Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2012-10-22 10:15:372012-10-22 10:15:37Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2012
Some decent racing in store for us today, so let's remind ourselves of Mal Boyle's preview of all the action scheduled for Ayr, Pontefract, Yarmouth and Kempton on...
General stats: Seven pound claimer Shirley Teasdale has already lit up Ayr racecourse, boasting a strike rate of 29% (5/17), statistics which have produced an LSP figure of twenty-six points.
General stats: Henry Candy has one horse entered at the time of writing (Gouray Girl in the scheduled 4.40 event), the trainer boasting a strike rate of 29% via a ratio of 5/15 (five points of LSP into the bargain).
Six furlong apprentice handicap scheduled for 2.30: Alan McCabe potentially saddles Opus Dei in an event where the trainer has saddled a medallist of each colour despite there having been only two renewals to date. The inaugural 7/2 favourite duly obliged before last year‘s 3/1 market leader could only finish fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position.
Five furlong juvenile event due to be contested at 3.00: Market leaders have won seven of the twelve renewals to date, whilst ten favourites have snared toteplacepot positions in the process. The biggest priced winner thus far started at just 13/2, whilst eleven of the winners were returned at 100/30 or less.
All aged one mile handicap scheduled at 4.00: Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured five of the last six renewals, whilst Michael Dods held two entries earlier in the week for a race in which he has saddled three of the last six winners. Two of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include one winner.
Six furlong handicap for fillies due to be contested at 4.00: Five of the thirteen favourites (via twelve renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far (three winners).
'Draw factor' (six furlongs):
6-4-1 (12 ran-good to firm)
14-8-15 (15 ran-good)
2-3 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-11-6 (9 ran-good to soft)
6-2 (7 ran-firm)
6-4-3 (9 ran-good)
14-13-6 (9 ran-good to soft)
2-1-3 (9 ran-firm)
11-3-8 (11 ran-good to firm)
5-10-8-2 (17 ran-firm)
11-9-15 (15 ran-firm)
8-2-11 (13 ran-good to firm)
Seventeen furlong handicap scheduled for 4.30: All six winners to date have carried weights of 8-12 or more, whilst four of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) via five renewals (one dead heat) to date.
All aged ten furlong maiden event scheduled for 5.00: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last twelve renewals, whilst six of the eleven favourites have won to date during the study period, whilst 10 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
'Draw factor' (ten furlongs)
3-2-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
12-8-3 (12 ran-good)
10-4-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
16-11-6 (17 ran-good to soft)
2-6-3 (8 ran-firm)
13-16-1 (14 ran-good to soft)
8-9-6 (12 ran-good to soft)
2-4 (5 ran-firm)
2-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
1-2-7 (8 ran-firm)
9-11-2 (8 ran-firm)
5-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
General stats: Ed Walker’s 7/11 stats are truly outstanding, especially having produced over fifty points of level stake profits in the process. Peter Chapple-Hyam also does well with his runners here and his team are showing signs of coming back into top form.
General stats: Michael Murphy’s 38% strike rate from the saddle hails from a ratio of 6/16, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of eighteen points.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/wellideclare12.png240980Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2012-09-20 10:02:572012-09-18 18:17:30Well I Declare: 20th September
Two odds on favourites: Roger Charlton winner at 4/5 and Sir Michael Stoute trained loser at 10/11.
Fourteen of the nineteen winners were returned at 10/1 or less, eleven gold medallists being sent off at a top price of 11/2. The other five winners were returned at 20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1.
John Gosden led the way with four winners (20/1-16/1-11/2-15/8*), John securing a 316/1 treble on the Saturday which included his 11/2 ‘King George’ winner Nathaniel.
Quite how one of John’s runners was sent off as a 20/1 winner on the Sunday remains a mystery given his success on the second day of the meeting.
The only other handler to saddle more than one winner during the three days was retired trainer Barry Hills who secured events with 8/1 and 9/2 chances.
Sir Michael Stoute saddled four beaten favourites (10/11-6/5-6/4-11/4) of which just two reached the frame. Saeed Bin Suroor was the only other trainer to saddle more than one market leader (11/10 & 15/8), both horses missing out on toteplacepot positions.
Friday: £24.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £712.75)
Saturday: £462.30 (average dividend over the last ten years: £710.86)
Sunday: £332.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £308.46)
Friday details at Ascot:
Juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 2.10: Five of the last twelve favourites have scored whilst twelve of the last fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions. The last eleven winners have won at odds of 15/2 or less.
Two mile all aged handicap scheduled for 3.20: Four clear market leaders, one joint and one co favourite have won this event during the last fifteen years. Just nine of the twenty-two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
One mile Class 3 all aged handicap scheduled for 5.05: Ten of the twelve winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst five market leaders have won via twelve renewals to date. Three of the other seven favourites additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
General stats: It is hardly surprising that seven pound claimer Natasha Eaton has secured a ride at the meeting already, given her 3/6 ratio at Haydock! National was booked aboard Fleeting Echo in the scheduled 4.50 event early doors on Monday.
General stats: George Baker is amassing a fair size yard now whereby his few runners at Newmarket are worth consideration. George seemingly puts a great deal of planning into his declarations as his 3/11 ratio at Newmarket confirms.
Ten furlong Class 5 all aged handicap due to be contested at 5.40: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (three winners). Fourteen of the twenty-eight available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 12/1 or more, statistics which include three winners at 16/1--16/1--12/1.
Seven furlong juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 6.10: Five of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two winners. Eight of the last nine winners were returned at 25/1, 25/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 9/1 & 11/2, whilst two other horses have secured toteplacepot positions at 33/1 during the period alongside other outsiders. Mahmood Al Zarooni comes to the gig on a hat trick and it’s worth noting that the trainer held four options at the penultimate entry stage.
Class 4 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 6.45: Fifteen of the twenty toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying weights of 9-0 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective (three winners).
Five furlong Conditions event scheduled for 7.15: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have scored in the last fifteen years. Eleven of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions though it’s worth noting that four odds on favourites have been beaten in recent years. The last fifteen winners have all been returned in single figures.
Three-year-old maiden event over one mile due to be contested at 8.25: Six of the eleven favourites have scored to date whilst aside from two 25/1 winners, the biggest priced scorer was returned at 7/2. Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
General stats: Michael Appleby is rapidly making a name for himself and Michael’s 5/14 stats at this venue catch the eye, especially as the trainer has yielded thirty-four points of level stake profits into the bargain.
General stats: Ralph Beckett has saddled four gold and four silver medallists via his last sixteen runners at the time of writing and with the trainer having saddled five winners from just seventeen representatives at Pontefract in recent times, any horses from the yard offered the green light should be followed.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/wellideclare9.png240980Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2012-07-20 08:04:082012-07-20 08:04:08Well I Declare, 20th July
Firstly, an apology: it seems that moving this feature to a daily publication has meant that some readers have been unable to find it on the site. We apologise for any confusion/difficulties that we have inadvertently caused in trying to make things easier for you!
Now, onto today's action: the highlight, of course, is the Oaks card from Epsom and we've the lowdown on that plus the vital draw stats for the meeting, but we're not done there! We've also got information about the racing at Brighton, Haydock, Newcastle, Pontefract and Stratford in a busy old day!
We start naturally with Epsom:
General stats: If you don’t particularly fancy any horse in a race at Epsom over the next few days, it might be worth considering whatever Seb Sanders partners, given Seb’s exceptional 12/38 strike rate at one of the toughest track to ride in the world, figures which have produced an LSP figure in excess of seventy-two points during the last five years.
Listed Princess Elizabeth event scheduled for 1.40: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals of this contest. Six of the last nine favourites have prevailed as have seven of the latest fourteen market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 7/1.
Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 2.15: Four-year-olds have dominated this event, as vintage representatives have snared six of the last 14 renewals. Three favourites have won during the study period, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):
8-1-5 (11 ran-good)
10-5-3 (12 ran-good)
4-11-6 (10 ran-good)
5-2-1 (10 ran-good)
1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)
13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)
10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)
1-3-7 (11 ran-good)
6-7-2 (14 ran-good)
10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)
10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
14-7-6 (14 ran-good)
10-3-8 (15 ran-good)
3-8-10 (14 ran-good) Diomed Stakes due to be contested at 2.50: Ten of the last fourteen winners have scored at 8/1 or less (three winning favourites).
Class 2 eight and a half furlong handicap scheduled for 3.25: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as eight vintage representatives have won during the last fourteen years, statistics which include six of the last ten gold medallists. Two favourites have won during the study period, whilst seven of the last sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
The Oaks scheduled for 4.05: Aidan O’Brien has saddled 18 horses in the second fillies classic of the season since the Irish trainer last tasted success with Alexandrova back in 2006. The fact that five stable representatives have secured toteplacepot positions during the ‘negative period’ suggests that at least one runner from Ballydoyle should be included in the toteplacepot mix.
Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years. Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons. Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Seven furlong ‘Surrey Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.50: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via fourteen renewals, taking into account that the favourite four years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed. Nine of the fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
3YO Class 2 handicap over seven furlongs scheduled for 5.25: The last six market leaders have finished out of the frame since the last successful favourite obliged. Three favourites have prevailed during the last decade.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored. Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.
General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni had won with three of the six juveniles he had saddled this season at the time of writing and the trainer boasts 4/12 figures in the two-year-old sector at Brighton. Please also note Brighton’s comments for Thursday’s meeting.
General stats: Roger Varian’s 37% strike rate at Haydock has produced the thick end of thirty points of level stake profits during his short career.
General stats: Luke Morris (2/7 at Newcastle) is a rare visitor to the North-East but Luke did have a couple of provisional bookings earlier in the week.
General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor (11/34) and Ralph Beckett (5/17) boast exceptional figures at Pontefract and their entries should be treated with plenty of respect if the relevant horses are offered the green light on Friday.
General stats: Anthony Honeyball (3/8) and Charlie Longsdon (13/54) are showing scant respect for the record of Paul Nicholls who has dominated this venue in recent years.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/wellideclare.png240980MalBoylehttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMalBoyle2012-06-01 09:27:312012-06-01 09:28:41Well I Declare, 1st June 2012
Mick Easterby Will Be Praying For A Change of Fortune
Itâ€™s that time of the week again as Andy Newton highlights which trainers have been hitting the high notes, while heâ€™s also got a big name handler whose runners might be best avoided at present. Read more
Hayley Turner is having a dream year, there's no doubt about it. After gaining her first Group 1 win aboard Dream Ahead in Newmarketâ€™s July cup, she notched up the 500th winner of her career at Windsor on Monday night. Read more
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00IanShttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngIanS2011-08-03 08:30:592011-08-03 08:30:59Turner's 500th winner spur to other lady jockeys
Well I Declare - more winners in the five day entries?
Another week of winners for Mal Boyle's fantastic 'Well I Declare' feature last week, so let's dig straight in to this week's notable declarations... Read more
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/wellideclare.png240980MalBoylehttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMalBoyle2011-07-20 09:54:362012-01-11 09:10:01'Well I Declare', 20th July 2011
Another great week for the spotlighted hot trainers, with Ed Dunlop leading the way withÂ four well-priced successes, while Ralph Beckett bagged an 11/1 win for us and that man Peter Bowen continues to be a trainer to follow after he sent out a 9/1 winner at Southwell last Sunday. Read more
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngAndy Newton2011-07-13 21:13:072011-07-14 18:49:05Trainer Trends - July 14th
I hope you latched on to several winners last week which included those returned at 25/1 and 10/1! Read more
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2011-07-13 09:14:042011-07-13 09:16:10Well I Declare, 13th July 2011
Jockey Paul Hanagan has moved further ahead in the race for the jockeys' championship title, with a victory aboard Zenella in the totepool Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed) at Pontefract, taking the difference now to eleven from his closest rival Richard Huges.
"Paul gave her an absolutely tremendous ride and that's why he is going to be champion jockey," said winning trainer Ann Duffield.
Hanagan merited the trainer's praise, leading from the get to, giving a perfectly timed performance to record a victory by a length and three quarters.
Duffield commented, "We always knew she was decent, and I was just hoping to get some black type with her as a two-year-old.
"We'll probably put her away now - I don't think there's anything for her now - but she could be a Group Three horse next year if she strengthens up over the winter."
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2010-10-19 04:06:342010-10-28 08:51:15Hanagan Increases the Gap