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Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2012

Stat of the Day 22/10

Stat of the Day 22/10

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2012

No play yesterday, as the filly Loreto got herself so worked up in the stalls that she had to be withdrawn for her own safety, and also that of her jockey. That proved to be a disappointing end to a largely frustrating week and I'm hoping to get this week off to a better start, but today looks like a typically unappealing Monday.

However, it's not all doom and gloom, as I think we might just have a little gem for you over in West Yorkshire. It is, of course, the dark side of the Pennines to us Lancastrians, but needs must!

Today's contest is a Class 4 Handicap over the minimum 5 furlong trip. The ground is already declared as soft and one horse from the original 16 has already been pulled out, so E/W backers will now only get 3 places (unless you're on at the exchanges) for the...

3.20 Pontefract

The overnight/early morning going at Pontefract was officially declared at soft, but from past experience the course doesn't have the best drainage and further rain is forecast / happening now (depending on when you read this!). I wouldn't be surprised if that official going report doesn't change to include the dreaded H word later.

With the testing conditions underfoot and the fact that it's a 5f dash, I've gone with Geoffrey Harker's filly Breezolini. Mr Harker's Eijazz proved to be a bit of a disappointment to us last week, but I'm hoping his filly can redress the balance today.

Today's 5 furlong trip is the optimum distance for Breezolini, as her record at this distance reads 833111. Her career record is only 3 wins and 6 places from 24 outings, so to be 3 wins and 2 places from 6 at 5 furlongs speaks for itself.

So, we know she likes the trip, but will she get the course? Well, despite not winning any of her previous three outings at Ponty, she has finished third on two occasions, opening up the prospect of another place finish today and her record on soft ground reads 201, whilst her figures on heavy ground are 132. So we've moderate course form and a good record in soft to heavy going, including an excellent 2nd place at Ayr last time out of today's mark, having already landed 2 soft-ground handicaps over 5f earlier this year.

All things considered, I was pretty happy to see Stan James offering a generous-looking 7/1 BOG this morning, so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Breezolini at 8/1 BOG, but as always, I advise that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.20 Pontefract.

Trainer Stats: 26th Sept 2012

Anything Willie Mullins Runs Should Be Respected

Andy Newton has six in-form trainers to look out for this week...... Read more

Well I Declare: 20th September

Well I Declare: 20th September

Well I Declare: 20th September

Some decent racing in store for us today, so let's remind ourselves of Mal Boyle's preview of all the action scheduled for Ayr, Pontefract, Yarmouth and Kempton on...

...THURSDAY 20/09:

AYR:

General stats: Seven pound claimer Shirley Teasdale has already lit up Ayr racecourse, boasting a strike rate of 29% (5/17), statistics which have produced an LSP figure of twenty-six points.

 

PONTEFRACT:

General stats: Henry Candy has one horse entered at the time of writing (Gouray Girl in the scheduled 4.40 event), the trainer boasting a strike rate of 29% via a ratio of 5/15 (five points of LSP into the bargain).

Six furlong apprentice handicap scheduled for 2.30: Alan McCabe potentially saddles Opus Dei in an event where the trainer has saddled a medallist of each colour despite there having been only two renewals to date.  The inaugural 7/2 favourite duly obliged before last year‘s 3/1 market leader could only finish fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position.

Five furlong juvenile event due to be contested at 3.00: Market leaders have won seven of the twelve renewals to date, whilst ten favourites have snared toteplacepot positions in the process.  The biggest priced winner thus far started at just 13/2, whilst eleven of the winners were returned at 100/30 or less.

All aged one mile handicap scheduled at 4.00: Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured five of the last six renewals, whilst Michael Dods held two entries earlier in the week for a race in which he has saddled three of the last six winners.  Two of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include one winner.

Six furlong handicap for fillies due to be contested at 4.00: Five of the thirteen favourites (via twelve renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far (three winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

6-4-1 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-8-15 (15 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

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4-11-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (7 ran-firm)

6-4-3 (9 ran-good)

14-13-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-3 (9 ran-firm)

11-3-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-10-8-2 (17 ran-firm)

11-9-15 (15 ran-firm)

8-2-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

Seventeen furlong handicap scheduled for 4.30: All six winners to date have carried weights of 8-12 or more, whilst four of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) via five renewals (one dead heat) to date.

All aged ten furlong maiden event scheduled for 5.00: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last twelve renewals, whilst six of the eleven favourites have won to date during the study period, whilst 10 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs)

3-2-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-8-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

16-11-6 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

13-16-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

8-9-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-4 (5 ran-firm)

2-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

1-2-7 (8 ran-firm)

9-11-2 (8 ran-firm)

5-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

 

YARMOUTH:

General stats: Ed Walker’s 7/11 stats are truly outstanding, especially having produced over fifty points of level stake profits in the process.  Peter Chapple-Hyam also does well with his runners here and his team are showing signs of coming back into top form. 

 

KEMPTON:

General stats: Michael Murphy’s 38% strike rate from the saddle hails from a ratio of 6/16, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of eighteen points.

Trainer Stats – 19th Sept 2012

Al Zarooni Fresh From His Leger Win

This week Andy Newton’s got six in-form flat trainers to look out for, plus one high profile name you might want to avoid. Read more

Trainer Stats: 15th Aug 2012

Tregoning Horses Are Hitting The Mark

See who is on Andy Newton’s ‘HOT TRAINERS’ list this week....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 26th July 2012

Hannon's Horses Are In Flying Form

With Glorious Goodwood just around the corner, this week Andy Newton gives you 7 flat trainers that are in-form... Read more

Well I Declare, 20th July

Well I Declare 20/07/12

Well I Declare 20/07/12

Good Morning to one and all, today's programme features action from Ascot, Haydock, Newmarket, Nottingham and Pontefract: weather permitting!

Here's a reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the day's proceedings (as originally posted on Tuesday!)


FRIDAY 20/7:

Ascot:

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

19 races

Favourite details (19 market leaders): 6 winners--4 placed--9 unplaced

Two odds on favourites: Roger Charlton winner at 4/5 and Sir Michael Stoute trained loser at 10/11.

Fourteen of the nineteen winners were returned at 10/1 or less, eleven gold medallists being sent off at a top price of 11/2.  The other five winners were returned at 20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1.

John Gosden led the way with four winners (20/1-16/1-11/2-15/8*), John securing a 316/1 treble on the Saturday which included his 11/2 ‘King George’ winner Nathaniel.

Quite how one of John’s runners was sent off as a 20/1 winner on the Sunday remains a mystery given his success on the second day of the meeting.

The only other handler to saddle more than one winner during the three days was retired trainer Barry Hills who secured events with 8/1 and 9/2 chances.

Sir Michael Stoute saddled four beaten favourites (10/11-6/5-6/4-11/4) of which just two reached the frame. Saeed Bin Suroor was the only other trainer to saddle more than one market leader (11/10 & 15/8), both horses missing out on toteplacepot positions.

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Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £24.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £712.75)

Saturday: £462.30 (average dividend over the last ten years: £710.86)

Sunday: £332.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £308.46)

 

Friday details at Ascot:

Juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 2.10: Five of the last twelve favourites have scored whilst twelve of the last fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  The last eleven winners have won at odds of 15/2 or less.

Two mile all aged handicap scheduled for 3.20: Four clear market leaders, one joint and one co favourite have won this event during the last fifteen years.  Just nine of the twenty-two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

One mile Class 3 all aged handicap scheduled for 5.05: Ten of the twelve winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst five market leaders have won via twelve renewals to date. Three of the other seven favourites additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Haydock:

General stats: It is hardly surprising that seven pound claimer Natasha Eaton has secured a ride at the meeting already, given her 3/6 ratio at Haydock!  National was booked aboard Fleeting Echo in the scheduled 4.50 event early doors on Monday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: George Baker is amassing a fair size yard now whereby his few runners at Newmarket are worth consideration.  George seemingly puts a great deal of planning into his declarations as his 3/11 ratio at Newmarket confirms.

Ten furlong Class 5 all aged handicap due to be contested at 5.40: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).  Fourteen of the twenty-eight available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 12/1 or more, statistics which include three winners at 16/1--16/1--12/1.

Seven furlong juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 6.10:  Five of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two winners. Eight of the last nine winners were returned at 25/1, 25/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 9/1 & 11/2, whilst two other horses have secured toteplacepot positions at 33/1 during the period alongside other outsiders.  Mahmood Al Zarooni comes to the gig on a hat trick and it’s worth noting that the trainer held four options at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 4 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 6.45: Fifteen of the twenty toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying weights of 9-0 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective (three winners).

Five furlong Conditions event scheduled for 7.15: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have scored in the last fifteen years.  Eleven of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions though it’s worth noting that four odds on favourites have been beaten in recent years.  The last fifteen winners have all been returned in single figures.

Three-year-old maiden event over one mile due to be contested at 8.25:  Six of the eleven favourites have scored to date whilst aside from two 25/1 winners, the biggest priced scorer was returned at 7/2.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Michael Appleby is rapidly making a name for himself and Michael’s 5/14 stats at this venue catch the eye, especially as the trainer has yielded thirty-four points of level stake profits into the bargain. 

 

Pontefract:

General stats: Ralph Beckett has saddled four gold and four silver medallists via his last sixteen runners at the time of writing and with the trainer having saddled five winners from just seventeen representatives at Pontefract in recent times, any horses from the yard offered the green light should be followed.

Trainers Stats: 31st May 2012

 

Haggas Has His Horses In Great Form

With Epsom the main focus this week Andy Newton looks at which trainers are heading to the Surrey track in form. Read more

Trainer Trends – 22nd Sept

Mick Easterby

Mick Easterby Will Be Praying For A Change of Fortune

It’s that time of the week again as Andy Newton highlights which trainers have been hitting the high notes, while he’s also got a big name handler whose runners might be best avoided at present. Read more

Well I Declare, 13th July 2011

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Well I declare……

I hope you latched on to several winners last week which included those returned at 25/1 and 10/1! Read more