Tag Archive for: Pontefract

Tuscan Hills too good for Silver Tankard rivals

Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing have been the talk of the sales season having splashed the cash at Tattersalls, but they already have a smart prospect on their hands in Tuscan Hills, an easy winner of the British Stallion Studs EBF Silver Tankard Stakes.

Three years ago Joorabchian saw his purple silks carried to victory in the Listed event by Mr Professor, who had subsequent Irish Derby winner and Arc runner-up Westover behind him.

Again it was Amo and Juddmonte to the fore with Ralph Beckett’s Calla Lagoon the favourite but he had no answer to Tuscan Hills (7-2), who powered away in the straight to win by almost five lengths and give his trainer Raphael Freire a second win at this level.

David Egan, coming to the end of his first year in the role as retained rider for Amo, was suitably impressed.

Tuscan Hills looks to have a future
Tuscan Hills looks to have a future (Martin Rickett/PA)

He told Racing TV: “It just shows you as he’s a little bit of a sleeper at home.

“He went to Thirsk on his debut and he wasn’t the finished article and we knew there was a lot of improvement to come, so I actually went and rode another horse somewhere else and Oisin Orr rode him.

“He showed a lot of greenness in the first half of the race but the fact it was a mile on debut gave him time to get the hang of things and Oisin got a really good feel off him that day.

“He’s shown that again today, he’s handled conditions and travelled through the race really nicely.

“He’s very much one to look forward to and if he can take as much of a leap from his second to his third start as he did from his first to his second, he’ll be an exciting horse next year for sure.”

Sophia’s Starlight (left) holds off The Eyes Have It
Sophia’s Starlight (left) holds off The Eyes Have It (Martin Rickett/PA)

Sophia’s Starlight (18-5) has been a real star for her owners Nick Bradley Racing and she won for the seventh time in the British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap.

Trained by Grant Tuer, five of those successes came last season, and they included the valuable Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon, but it meant she started this campaign in the grip of the handicapper.

She had dropped back down to a mark of 91 which enabled her to win at Newmarket last time out and off 2lb higher, she went in again under Sam James.

“She travels so strongly on heavy ground, turning in I thought it would have to take something that was all right to come and get me,” said James.

“She wasn’t really doing a stroke in front but she likes this ground and she’s in good form.

“Grant and his team have done a great job getting her back to 100 per cent because she had a couple of little, niggly issues, but she felt really well the last time at Newmarket.

“It probably wasn’t the worse thing that she couldn’t run in the summer on faster ground as she likes it soft, so hopefully she can make hay now.”

Beckett’s unexposed Oxford Comma justified 6-5 favouritism to win the Phil Bull Trophy Conditions Stakes under Eddy Greatrex.

Down in class but up in trip having run in the Park Hill at Doncaster last time out, she held off Wise Eagle by a length and a quarter.



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Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Pontefract, Stratford, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And there's soft ground at Pontefract, so we'll head there for six races beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 1.17, an 11-runner, Class 4, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Top Juggler, Dark Rosa & Sir Palamedes all won last time out, Stirrup Cup has finished 12 in his last two and despite being a 5-race maiden, Georgecandoit has never been out of the first three home and drops two classes here, as does Stirrup Cup.

Dark Rosa has already won over course and distance and Top Juggler, Shazani, Stirrup Cup & Sir Palamedes have 6f wins under their belts, whilst Top Juggler, Stirrup Cup & Larchill Lass have all won on soft ground and on a track/trip where early pace is often key...

...the ones setting the tempo are likely to be that quartet above. Dark Rosa ticks plenty of boxes here, as does fast finisher Top Juggler and then it's a case of picking one from Stirrup Cup, Georgecandoit and Sir Palamedes for me. Two of that trio drop two classes here and of that pair, I think I prefer Stirrup Cup, so it's (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 2 @ 1.52, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

No LTO winners but Music Society has been runner-up twice on the bounce and Alafdhal three times. Yazaman failed to make the frame in his last two, but won his previous three and both Willolarupi & Mrs Trump both won three starts ago.

Most of the field have won over 5f already, Music Society has also won here at Ponty over 6f, whilst Alafdhal is a former course and distance winner and this pair are both on my Instant Expert watchlist, as well as being off significantly lower marks than past wins...

...so I'll take both of these along with Object, who wasn't far behind Alafdhal last time out, despite racing all alone on the "wrong" side at Catterick last time out, but as a front runner with a plun draw here, he could well take the race never mind make the frame!

(6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal from this one.

Leg 3 @ 2.27, a 7-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m2f...

Tequila Star, Sir Dinadan & Novelista all made the frame last time out and the latter is the only runner not stepping up in class. Sir Dinadan improved tremendously from his debut to then be a runner-up at Haydock and with further improvement expected, a low draw and these stats...

...(4) Sir Dinadan is probably the one to beat with (3) Novelista likely to push him hardest.

Leg 4 @ 3.02, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m...

Epidavros is of immediate interest coming here off the back of two wins including one over a mile on soft ground. Sea The Dream has two wins (one on heavy) and two places from six this year, Good Morning Alex has won six of his last ten starts (5 from 8 over today's trip), whilst unexposed Retracement has a win and a place from his three outings, including a course and distance win here back in July and I think these are the four I'm keenest on.

I don't actually think that there's much between them overall, but Good Morning Alex's last two runs make him vulnerable on form. That said, he's the front-runner in this race...

...and that clearly puts him back in the mix, so I'm going to fudge it here and take all four! (1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros.

Leg 5 @ 3.37, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...

Justus returns from a 163 day break to see if he can complete a hat-trick after winning three and being a runner-up in one of his last five starts. He own here over course and distance on heavy ground three starts ago and is only 5lbs higher here and drops in class. He has a real chance of making the frame or better again today if he's not to rusty after his break, but I suspect the ones to be on here here might be Surrey Force and Cinnodin.

Neither of this pair are prolific winners, but are steady solid consistent types, like you need at this type of trip/going. Surrey Force is the sole 3yo in the race and for that, he'll get a more than useful 10lbs allowance. He ran really well from a car park drawn to finish third at Chester last time out and won't have to run that far/wide today!

Cinnodin is only 1lb higher than when finishing third in this race last year, was a good second of thirteen over 2m at Kempton last time out, now drops in class and is ridden by Rossa Ryan who likes it here at Ponty...

The main danger in taking the above three is, I feel, that Justus might well need the run after over five months off the track and the 5yo mare Yorkindness might well be the one who benefits from that.

She's a three-time winner (all wins here) from five starts at 2m1f and has made the frame in three of her last five at 2m2f, whilst her record here at Ponty reads 11153. She has won on soft ground before, she won the last time Jason Hart rode her and she drops three classes today, so I think she might just be a slightly safer pick today with Justus one to watch next time out, perhaps but I'm siding with (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness and (9) Surrey Force today.

Leg 6 @ 4.12, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m...

Bottom weight Style of Life is the sole LTO winner in the field and comes here with three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last eight outings. Urban Sprawl was a runner-up at Ayr six days ago, beaten by just a head. He runs off the same mark here and with no disrespect intended, a pro jockey might get a bit more from him in the finish today, as might Poets Dawn who is reunited with David Allan today who has ridden this veteran to six of his ten career wins.

He didn't run or get ridden badly last time out, though and was an undisgraced sixth of seventeen at York and having won over 1m1f at Carlisle on his previous outing, looks one to consider here again. Walsingham is also interesting, despite being a nine-race maiden.

He had been knocking on the door, finishing 332 in his last three races in Ireland before moving to David O'Meara's yard. He probably needed the run last time out on yard debut, not having raced for 398 days, but went well for much of the race, only fading badly late on and he should come on for that effort.

These four are my shortlist here and they head the four-race pace ratings...

Walsingham is probably the weaker of the four, based on past efforts and although the O'Meara/Tudhope combo is generally to be feared, the yard's record with handicap debutants over the last year doesn't really stack up with the yard's overall prowess

... I'll go with (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life here although Walsingham might well spoil the party!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup

Leg 2: (6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal

Leg 3: (3) Novelista & (4) Sir Dinadan

Leg 4:(1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros

Leg 5: (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness & (9) Surrey Force

Leg 6: (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!

Chris

 



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Fentiman suffers double leg break in Pontefract fall

Duran Fentiman is set for a spell on the sidelines after suffering a double leg break at Pontefract on Thursday.

Fentiman was set to partner Tim Easterby’s two-year-old Cangofar in a novice contest but he parted company after the horse jinked on the way to the start.

The rider, who has ridden 21 winners this term, was taken to hospital in Leeds where he is set to undergo surgery on Friday having broken both his tibia and fibula.

“He has suffered a lower leg break and has broke his tibia and fibula in two places,” said Fentiman’s agent Paul Brierley, who plans to visit the jockey on Friday evening.

Jockey Duran Fentiman was enjoying a fine season
Jockey Duran Fentiman was enjoying a fine season (Mike Egerton/PA)

“I spoke to Duran last night and this morning and he is scheduled to go down for an operation. When I spoke to him this morning he was next in line and it is just a case of getting the operation done.

“In himself he’s a bit tired because he wouldn’t have had much sleep. It’s obviously very painful, but at the same time he is obviously disappointed because he is having such a good year as well. It’s typical horseracing where you can have the rug pulled from under your feet at any time.”

There was a lengthy delay to racing as Fentiman was first made stable on course before being transferred to hospital, with the remaining races on the card subsequently abandoned due to the lack of an available replacement ambulance.

Thoughts now turn to Fentiman’s recovery, with the jockey, who recently partnered his 400th career winner, thankful for all the messages he has received following Thursday’s incident.

“Duran is all right in terms of chatting away, but yesterday quite a lot of the delay was due to getting Duran comfortable and stable because the break was obviously not a straight forward one,” continued Brierley.

“The horse just jinked and it was a fairly big two-year-old as well, so it was a fair way down. Ninety-nine times out of 100 you’d land on your feet or roll around, but he’s just landed and the leg has broke. We’ll just have to see, but I would assume that is 2024 finished.

“The main thing is he’s in the right place and it’s amazing what they can do with sports injuries these days.

“I’ve had hundreds and hundreds of messages and I would like to pass on that Duran appreciates all the messages and well-wishes he’s received.”



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Pontefract abandoned after Fentiman fall

Pontefract’s Thursday afternoon card was abandoned after three races following an injury to jockey Duran Fentiman that left the track without enough ambulances to continue racing.

Fentiman fell from Tim Easterby’s Cangofar on the way to the start for the FBS Chartered Accountants Restricted Novice Stakes and sustained a suspected broken leg, causing a lengthy delay as he was treated in the ambulance and then taken to hospital.

The other horses set to run in the contest were held at the start for some time and it was eventually decided on veterinary advice that they should not compete after a long wait in the wet and cold conditions.

The incident coincided with a car accident on the road outside the track and after attempting to replace the absent ambulance in order to run the remainder of the card, it became apparent to officials at the course that they would not be able to do so in a suitable timeframe.

“Duran was unshipped on the way to the start and when the medical team got to him he obviously had quite a bad injury, they took quite a long time to assess everything, stabilise him and get him in the ambulance,” Norman Gundill, managing director of the track, told Racing TV.

“The ambulance has taken him the St James’s (hospital) in Leeds. There’s a further complication in that there’s been an accident on the road outside.

“All of the horses were kept at the start – it’s a miserable, cold, wet day. The stewards and officials were in communication with the vets at the start as to whether they were happy for the horses to run having been there for so long.

“There was an announcement saying that if any of the trainers wanted to withdraw their horses, they could do so.

“Under the rules, if an incident happens where one of the ambulances has to leave, then we can run one race but we can’t then carry on unless we get a replacement ambulance back.

“We were in a position to run one race, in the end what happened was that the vets decided the horses had been there for so long and as it was cold, it was not in their best interests to run.

“So far as the rest of the card is concerned, we made some enquiries to see if we could get a replacement ambulance, bearing in mind the timescale and when darkness will fall, the decision was taken that we couldn’t get one here, so we couldn’t carry on racing.

“Unfortunately we haven’t been able to run the race we should have been able to run, and we couldn’t run the rest of the card.”



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Yorkshire tracks gearing up for Summer Festival start

The 16th Go Racing in Yorkshire Summer Festival begins at Pontefract on Friday evening.

It consists nine days of racing and takes in Redcar, York, Thirsk, Doncaster, Catterick, Beverley and Ripon.

With four music nights, highlighted by the Kaiser Chiefs at York on July 26, family fun days and a circus, the Yorkshire courses come together in an attempt to attract new audiences at the start of the summer holidays.

This year’s event, once again sponsored by Sky Bet, has chosen the Matt Hampson Foundation as its charity partner, and there is a good reason why.

Yorkshire-based jockey Graham Lee, who suffered life-changing injuries in a fall at Newcastle in November, visits the foundation for specialist therapy for two weeks every month.

The charity’s founder is former England rugby player Matt Hampson OBE who was left paralysed from the neck down when aged just 20.

The popular jump jockeys’ Nunthorpe will take place at York once more while there will be awards for leading trainer, jockey and best turned out horses across the festival.

One rider looking forward to the meeting is Jo Mason, who goes into the fixture with a full book of rides, four for the training partnership of her grandfather and uncle, Mick and David Easterby and with Scatter Penny, This Years Love and Late Arrival all winners last time out, there is every chance she can take an early lead in the Sky Bet leading jockey competition.

“Scatter Penny won first time out at Nottingham. She was very green but stayed on and will have come on for the run. She should give a good account of herself,” said Mason.

“This Years Love is looking for a hat-trick. He likes a stiff finish, having won twice at Beverley and would suit a step up in trip. I hope they don’t nick him for jumping because I like riding him on the flat!

“Late Arrival won last time out at Pontefract, loves cut in the ground, loves Pontefract and loves a stiff finish.

“I’m really looking forward to the week. A couple of years ago I was leading jockey for most of the week but faltered near the end, so we’ll give it another shot this year.”



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Caernarfon back to winning ways with Pipalong victory

A drop back to a mile worked the oracle for Caernarfon as she registered her first win since her two-year-old days in the Weatherbys ePassport Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract.

The daughter of Cityscape brought the curtain down on Mick Channon’s training career in style when claiming the Montrose Fillies’ Stakes as a juvenile and since then has been one of the leading lights for his son Jack in the early days of his time as the West Ilsley Stables licence holder.

Fourth in the 1000 Guineas and third in the Oaks at three, she has spent the majority of the last 18 months campaigning over 10 or 12 furlongs and in useful company.

However, she was dropped back to both a mile and Listed level for her visit to West Yorkshire, where her class came to the fore as she made a welcome return to form in the hands of Tom Marquand.

Jack Channon trains Caernarfon
Jack Channon trains Caernarfon (Mike Egerton/PA)

Sent off 14-1, she came through to lead with a furlong to run and kept on gamely in the closing stages when challenged by Ralph Beckett’s Royal Ascot scorer and 5-4 favourite Doha.

Channon said: “We’re all delighted and it has been a long time between drinks in terms of her winning, but she has run a lot of creditable races over the last few years and it is good to get her head in front.

“I feel like we messed up as a team and we kept looking at her Oaks run and thinking that was her personal best and because of that thinking she wanted a mile and a half.

“On the face of it, it didn’t look like she ran well in the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock (last time) but if you watch it again, she almost hits the front two furlongs out and David Probert (jockey) said the petrol gauge then just went empty.

“Coming into today we thought this was the right call to drop back to a mile and her work had been electric the last couple of weeks – I was pretty confident she would get the job done.

“She has been running over longer and we knew she would get the trip well, but it is just nice to see her show her class again and hopefully this is the first step back on the road to bigger and better things.”

On future assignments, Channon added: “I still think if there is an easy mile and a quarter race then I wouldn’t be against it, but a stiff mile is right up her alley and there is a lot of nice races at the back end of summer and into autumn that we can target.

“Hopefully she can step back up into Group company and go on to compete at the top level again.”



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Billy Loughnane shines again with Pontefract double

Fresh from opening his Royal Ascot account, Billy Loughnane began the new month in the best possible fashion with a double at Pontefract

Simon and Ed Crisford’s Magnum Opus, who had been off since April having disappointed on his handicap debut at Sandown, got the ball rolling, looking a different proposition in the bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Handicap.

With odds-on favourite Old Cock among the first beaten, Loughnane brought the 18-1 chance through with a smooth challenge to win going away by three lengths from Tele Red.

He later took the Wayne Conway Memorial Handicap on Roger Fell and Sean Murray’s Coloane (7-1).

For Loughnane, 18, it is all about keeping the momentum going after his wins on Rashabar and Soprano at the big meeting.

“I wasn’t sure if Rashabar had held on, thankfully he was very game,” said Loughnane referring to his 80-1 Coventry Stakes winner.

“When they called my number out, there’s no other feeling like it – it was like an electric buzz going through my body! There’ll never be another one like it, there’s only one first Royal Ascot winner. It was a great day and hopefully there’s many more to come.

“Then Soprano managed to win on Friday so to bag two in the week I was really lucky.

“What a great month it was and a great Ascot week, I’ve got a lot of people to thank and it was a dream come true riding two winners there.

“It was been a good year so far, so hopefully I can stay injury free and keep going.”

Unequal Love returns victorious under Danny Tudhope
Unequal Love returns victorious under Danny Tudhope (Nick Robson/PA)

The feature Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Spindrifter Fillies’ Novice Stakes also saw an odds-on favourite sunk as Ralph Beckett’s Ardeur failed to live up to her reputation.

Instead, it was a very straightforward success for Karl Burke’s Unspoken Love (9-2), who was bought back in having won a seller at Musselburgh last time out.

Danny Tudhope was on board and said: “She broke well and that meant I was able to dictate the pace.

“I was able to get a breather into her and it’s worth its weight in gold here if you can get to the front and do that. She’s won well.

“She’s been progressing with each race but she won the race at the start today.”

Rossa Ryan explains to Ed Bethell how he won on Cavalier Approach
Rossa Ryan explains to Ed Bethell how he won on Cavalier Approach (Nick Robson/PA)

Ed Bethell may have been left perplexed by the performance of Old Cock but he had a happier time of things earlier when the Rossa Ryan-ridden Cavalier Approach (100-30 favourite) obliged in the Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap.

“He jumped and travelled well which is vital here. The blinkers had the desired effect at Ayr, but he just ran a bit gassy,” said Bethell.

“He was a bit down in grade today and I’m delighted for his owner Mr (George) Murray.

“He’s always promised to be a bit better than he has been. I definitely thought a mark of 67 was workable, we just had a little bit of a question mark about how he was training at home in the blinkers but they’ve worked today which is the main thing.”

Late Arrival (100-30 favourite) was just that in winning the Northern Commercials Order Your New Iveco Vehicle Handicap two years on from his last victory in the race.

His rider Joanna Mason pounced on the 5-2 favourite Variety Island and Dicko The Legend to win by half a length for Mick and David Easterby.



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Stars reigns in Pontefract Castle test

River Of Stars survived a late challenge from Ching Shih to secure Listed honours in the Pontefract Castle Fillies’ Stakes on Sunday.

Winner of the Group Three Bronte Cup last year, Ralph Beckett’s five-year-old was a consistent performer in some hot events during 2023, but had to settle for third when returned to the Knavesmire for her reappearance and defence of her crown.

Dropped back to a mile and a half for this Pontefract assignment, William Buick was always towards the head of proceedings aboard the daughter of Sea The Stars.

Asked to go and win her race entering the home straight, River Of Stars looked to have victory sealed having beaten off Rae Guest’s eventual third Divina Grace.

However, with the winning post looming, David Simcock’s Ching Shih came motoring home, with River Of Stars eventually holding on by a nose.

“It was a very good spot for her and a good opportunity to gain some more black type and to win one, it’s very important for these fillies,” Buick told Racing TV.

“Ralph was wanting me to ride her forward which was what I did and she got into a nice rhythm. She stays this trip well and a bit further, which is always a help.

“I wasn’t sure (if I had held on), I was hoping we had our head down. I haven’t checked the photo finish, but she deserved that so I am glad she didn’t get beat.”



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Hammond full of praise for Aiden Brookes in Pontefract victory

Micky Hammond was grateful for Aiden Brookes’ claim after landing round one of the Pontefract Stayers’ Championship with Justus at the opening meeting of the season at the West Yorkshire track.

Justus looked beaten down the stretch of the two-and-a-quarter mile Jamaican Flight Handicap under 5lb claimer Brookes, with Maxident and Robert Johnson apparently fighting out the finish.

But Justus (9-2) responded to Brookes’ urgings and got up close home to land victory by three-quarters of a length.

Hammond felt Brookes’ claim proved vital on ground the horse loves as he took advantage of carrying nearly a stone less than all four of his rivals.

Hammond told Racing TV: “The horse has had a good winter with us. Obviously Aiden has been with us now for a good few years now since leaving school and he’s well worth his claim.

“(The ground is) very important for the horse. Lightest-weighted in the race which has suited. When they quickened up a little bit they actually left us a bit flat footed.

“All we’ve done is just stay which has won the day for us really. Absolutely delighted.”

Hammond has a smaller army of runners on the Flat but is hoping for a drying up of the ground for his jumpers.

He added: “Surely it’s going to dry up very soon. Maybe for the winter jumpers this festival weekend we have in the north might be the last time that we get the soft or heavy ground.

“And then hopefully we might get some sort of a spring, although having said that it’s actually quite spring like here today.

“Hopefully the racing will go ahead through the rest of the week because the forecast isn’t too promising.

“We haven’t got a lot of Flat horses, we’re not going to have a lot of summer jumpers but the jumpers we’ve got we’ll keep them going until Cartmel at the end of May. The winter jumpers have done really well.”

The Bell Conductor (10-1) made all to land the feature William Hill Extra Place Races Every Day Handicap for Craig Lidster and William Pyle.

The seven-year-old was pressured in the final furlong but held off Glorious Angel to triumph by one and a quarter lengths.

Favourite Wen Moon was a further length and a half back in third.



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Macarone on a mission for Rob Burrow Racing Club at Thirsk

Yorkshire handler Craig Lidster admits he has been humbled by the chance to train Macarone for the Rob Burrow Racing Club as he sets his sights on a fitting Pontefract date later this month.

Burrow’s battle with motor neurone disease has touched the hearts of the nation and has also left a lasting impression on the Easingwold-based handler, who has relished the opportunity to train for the racing club that raises money for charity in the former England and Leeds Rhinos star’s name.

Lidster has recorded 30 winners so far in his fledgling training career, but none meant as much to him as Macarone’s maiden triumph at Beverley last month, which came on his first start in the Rob Burrow Racing Club colours.

And although injuring his back on the gallops a day before Macarone broke his duck, Lidster was trackside to witness the son of Havana Grey open his account in the hands of Paul Hanagan, who not long afterwards announced his retirement from the saddle.

Training for Rob Burrow has been humbling for Yorkshire handler Craig Lidster
Training for Rob Burrow has been humbling for Yorkshire handler Craig Lidster (Mike Egerton/PA)

He said: “We were thrilled to bits to get that win at Beverley and it was special as it was one of Paul’s last rides.

“It’s an honour to train for Rob. People asked me before Macarone won what was the pinnacle of my training career and I would say watching Julie Camacho and Steve Brown win Group Ones with Shaquille because they are very good friends of mine.

“But to go and top that with Macarone winning for the Rob Burrow Racing Club was a massive pleasure and humbling.

“I had broken my back the day before (in an accident on the gallops) and people were saying ‘what are you doing here?’. But when you turn around and see people in a worse situation than you, there was no way I was going to miss that in a million years.”

Having now got off the mark, Macarone will now attempt to climb the ratings at Thirsk in a bid to secure his place in a Pontefract nursery later this month.

It would be an appropriate climax to the youngster’s juvenile campaign with the race taking place in Burrow’s home town and at the closest racecourse to Leeds where he made his name in the Rhinos’ jersey.

“He is going to go to Thirsk on Monday,” continued Lidster.

“The main target is Pontefract on September 28 which is Rob’s home track so we would like to get Macarone to Rob’s home turf. The race is a 0-78 so we would like to come up the weights a bit to make sure we get in there.

“He’s a nice horse and a nice prospect going forward and with Rob Burrow taking him on, both myself and Steve (Burdett, the horse’s previous owner) were really keen to help Rob in any way we can.

“It’s a massive cause for such a lovely fella and we just couldn’t turn down helping.”



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No stopping Never in Spindrifter heat

We Never Stop broke his maiden in the British Stallion Studs EBF Spindrifter Novice Stakes at Pontefract to highlight a double for Shane Gray.

Placed at York twice previously, the Cotai Glory colt had finished almost three lengths behind John Quinn’s reopposing Twilight Romance most recently but did have a 4lb pull.

Perhaps more in his favour, though, was his draw in stall four of the five runners, which on most days at Pontefract would be a disadvantage but at this meeting the usually favoured inside rail was almost shunned throughout.

Gray was able to get Kevin Ryan’s youngster over to the stands’ rail first and he held off his old foe by half a length to win at 10-1.

Gray said: “We’ve always thought a lot of him but he grew a lot between his last run and this one.

“He’s a fine stamp of a horse and I think he’ll make a fine three-year-old. He’s so big, whatever he does at two he’s only going to improve on it next year.

“He showed some pace at York and travelled very strong. I’d almost say you could come back to five furlongs but he’s only going to get quicker with age, so six is fine for now.

“They came over in the first race, I’d walked the track and you can see by the colour of the grass there’s a difference in the ground, it’s a good advantage today.”

Shane Gray was also on the mark with So Grateful
Shane Gray was also on the mark with So Grateful (Nick Robson/PA)

Gray was also on Mick and David Easterby’s So Grateful (15-2) who was winning for the first time on turf in the Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap and another to take the favoured rail early.

That came after Serena Brotherton had charted an almost solo run up the stands’ side on the Easterbys’ Unplugged (13-8 favourite) in the 21st Wilfred Underwood Memorial Handicap.

It appeared a bold move by the veteran amateur rider, but it proved inspired, especially as only one other followed her, and she revealed a pre-race course walk made the decision much easier.

“I walked the track and I thought the fastest bit of ground was either right on the inside rail, which I didn’t think I could get to because of my draw (10), or the outside rail,” said Brotherton.

Serena Brotherton was the first to take advantage of the faster strip of ground
Serena Brotherton was the first to take advantage of the faster strip of ground (Nick Robson/PA)

“I did have a moment of doubt when we turned in and I could feel him thinking ‘what are you making me do?’ but he was fine.

“He wants top of the ground so it worked out.”

David Easterby, speaking after the win of So Grateful, said of the ploy: “It’s OK having these plans but you’ve got to be able to carry them out and he (Gray) didn’t go too fast. It’s easy to get the fractions wrong but he didn’t do that.

“Unfortunately for me, Serena likes to get to the track nice and early so I walked the track with her. I think the only reason we won today was because of the tactics, so the handicapper should drop him!

“They are running well this summer, so long may it continue.”

Rogue Tornado was a comfortable winner for Danny Tudhope
Rogue Tornado was a comfortable winner for Danny Tudhope (Nick Robson/PA)

The Royal Ascot-winning duo of Tom Clover and Danny Tudhope teamed up to win the Wayne Conway Memorial Handicap with Rogue Tornado, a first success at the track for Clover.

Sent off the 4-5 favourite, he briefly looked in a bit of bother before his stamina kicked in and he went on to win by two and a half lengths.

Simon and Ed Crisford’s Laser Guided (4-1) clearly thrives in the Yorkshire air as having dead-heated at Ripon earlier this season, he won the “89 And Reunited” Memorial Handicap off bottom weight under Oisin Orr.

Orr then doubled up himself on Gannon Glory (13-2) in the Northern Commercials Service, Sales And Parts Handicap, making all for his boss, Richard Fahey.



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Monday Musings: Compensation for Dylan

A friend called yesterday afternoon and asked, “What are you going to write about? Dettori? Coolmore? My choice”, he said, “would be the King and Queen Camilla, how they fully and seamlessly followed the example of the late Queen, treating Royal Ascot with fitting respect.” He could have added, even down to owning a winner and having the joy of the Duke of Kent presenting the trophy to them, writes Tony Stafford.

My preference though, only locked in my mind a few minutes after 6pm yesterday, was one that got away. All week, until Thursday at 10am, a small trainer based in Newmarket was convinced he had in his stable the winner of the Golden Gates Handicap, penultimate race on Saturday.

The unfortunate thing for Dylan Cunha, though, a South African with just under a year behind him as a trainer in the UK, was that the 10-furlong Round Course allows only 16 runners in races as against 20 at a mile-and-a-half.

With a few minutes to go, we spoke, and he said: “It’s not looking great, Johnston and Appleby haven’t declared yet” – but then they did and Dylan’s hopes for Silver Sword and a £50k first prize evaporated in a trice.

He did have yesterday’s one-mile Sunday Series race at Pontefract as back-up, but a ten grand winning dividend hardly makes up for five times that as well as the kind of publicity a win at the meeting would mean to a small stable.

“It’s been very hard to convince UK owners of what we are capable”, he said in an earlier chat before we got to know each other better. “Most of the horses have a South African ownership element at least and all we can do is show on the racecourse that we are up to the job.”

The same goes for Greg Cheyne, 46, ten times a top five rider in South African and twice runner-up there. An experienced rider with more than 2,000 wins to his name and who has moved to the UK to take up a job as pupil assistant to William Haggas.

He’s not the usual pupil assistant, the type sprinkled around Newmarket especially, from “good families” often with ownership and breeding in the family tree, much like Haggas was in his early days and even before.

I’m sure I’ve told this story before. William, now 63, was at school when at the time I used to speak every night to Michael Dickinson who was still riding. He’d come in from his nightly sauna when father Tony’s plans percolated through his head as the steam ebbed away the excess pounds from that spare, long frame.

The Dickinson trinity of dad Tony, mum Monica and son Michael were for a time almost the equivalent of a 70’s version of Willie Mullins and trained, among other very good horses, Silver Buck for William’s mother Christine Feather. The young master Haggas, apart from being a star cricketer that Fred Trueman once declared as a future Yorkshire captain, also kept a close watch on affairs at Gisburn in Lancashire, the original Dickinson base before the move across the county line to Harewood near Harrogate in West Yorkshire.

One evening Michael came on the phone. Always a little hyper, this time he neglected the usual greeting of “now then”, instead launching into a furious tirade saying: “That little so-and-so William Haggas keeps phoning me from Harrow telling me how to train his mother’s horses!”

A Cheltenham Gold Cup and two King Georges at Kempton were to fall to Silver Buck as well as fourth in the Famous Five Michael Dickinson Gold Cup of 1983. His was a long, honourable career which ended with a stable accident when still in his prime the following year.

By that time, Haggas had already moved to Newmarket, as pupil assistant for two years with fellow Old Harrovian Sir Mark Prescott and then four with John Winter before starting training in his own right in 1986. Thirty-seven years on, he is of course one of the acknowledged masters of his craft, working alongside wife Maureen, daughter of Lester Piggott.

Anyway, I digress, Dylan and Greg went north to Pontefract yesterday rather than south-west to Ascot the day before. The market was unequivocal, Silver Sword being backed down to 13/8 favouritism. If you need to know a little of Dylan’s talent, consider this about the Group 1-winning handler during his time in South Africa where he was one of the leading trainers. Silver Sword, an 11 grand December 2021 yearling had two runs in August last year early in Dylan’s UK training career and the result each time was catastrophic, at least for the trainer.

Apprentice Grace McEntee had the misfortune to be on the already gelded grey son of Charm Spirit for whom the comment on debut at Chelmsford was “dwelt, refused to race” and then, at Newbury 18 days later, “slow away, soon hung left, refused to race.”

Now what can you do after that? Well Dylan took him home, gradually instilling confidence so that by October he was ready to show more conventional reaction to training, finishing fifth of 11 as a 250/1 shot at Newmarket before three weeks later getting his first place with a second of 13 at Lingfield. Thus he could be sent away at the end of his juvenile career with reputation restored – to a degree!

Project forward to the February sale at Newmarket and I was having a cup of tea with my pal John Hancock, bloodstock insurer extraordinaire, and another friend, Michelle Fernandez, and knowing I edit a couple of sites every day, Trainers Quotes and From The Stables, she thought I might like to meet this trainer she had got to know. “He might be one for your site, he’s South African.”

I asked her to find out from him before he came over whether he knew Bernard Kantor, a friend who was the joint-founder and long-time boss of Investec Bank, sponsors of the Derby for quite a few years, sharing the podium with Her Majesty and the winners of the great prize. He is now retired.

Dylan Cunha came over and said: “You asked if I knew Bernard Kantor. I trained for him and we had plenty of winners together. In fact, one of his horses probably was most responsible for my coming over here as he had looked like a potential champion but had serious problems. I was so disillusioned I decided to call it a day and came to England a few years ago.”

He agreed he would join the Trainers Quotes team and told me that day about this grey gelding he had that was going to be a big part of his year. By April, Silver Sword had won very easily at Southwell and the plan was the London Gold Cup at Newbury in May. When you have one or two nice horses, you need the luck to hold and a couple of days before the race the horse had a small setback and Newbury was off.

Instead, turning out at Epsom, the gelding was second to a smart John and Thady Gosden performer on an interrupted preparation and that convinced him he would win at Royal Ascot.

Early in the week, when I wondered whether he would get in on his mark of 86 – up 4lb for Epsom – he said, “84 and 83 got in last year, so we should be all right.” History will show he wasn’t.

The best thing about the decision to run over an inadequate trip of a mile was the stiff nature of the Pontefract track, and having broken well from stall two, he soon had the two leaders covered and the punters who had shortened his price during the day never had a moment’s anxiety. Pulled to the outside by Cheyne, he took control just over a furlong out, drew clear and then had time to be eased. The winning margin was just over three lengths under 9st10lb joint top-weight. If they had another two furlongs to go, the margin could probably have been trebled.

Before yesterday’s race, still disappointed about missing Ascot, Dylan told me of a valuable ten-furlong race at his local course that is already on his radar. The Bet365 Handicap over ten furlongs for three-year-olds is a 0-105 that opens day two of the July meeting. That race carries a similar prize to the Golden Gates and he should have no fears of making the cut, especially as he’ll be into the 90’s by then.

I’m thrilled for this hard-working handler, and another winner with Ascot connections also pleased me greatly on Thursday. You won’t find the name Paradise Row on the list of Ascot winners, but part-owner Jonathan Barnett and trainer William Knight were in a box watching the progress of that three-year-old filly when she ran at Chelmsford, a few minutes after 150/1 shot Valiant Force had carried football agent Kia Joorabchian’s colours to victory in the Norfolk Stakes.

Barnett is also a major football agent, and founder and Chairman of ICM Stellar sports, race sponsors every year at Chester.  Rather less ebullient than the boss of Amo Racing, he watched as his filly battled home to a first career success at the Essex track. With a few friends around him and his trainer to cheer her home, it felt like a Royal Ascot winner. I agree with her handler that bigger things await this Zoffany filly as she gains experience, maybe even a run in one of the handicaps at next year’s Royal meeting. After all, dreams in racing can come true!

  • TS


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Falmouth date enters Sly’s thinking for Astral Beau

Pam Sly will consider an ambitious tilt at the Falmouth Stakes with Astral Beau after her stable star went down fighting at Epsom last week.

The four-year-old was rated in the mid-70s at this stage of last season, but has taken her game to another level this term, putting together three excellent runs.

After blowing her rivals away when landing a heavy ground Doncaster Mile on her April reappearance, Astral Beau proved that performance was no fluke when third in the Group Two Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on Guineas weekend.

She encountered much quicker conditions in the Group Three Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday, but again performed with great credit to finish third, beaten just three-quarters of a length by the Frankie Dettori-ridden Prosperous Voyage.

Sly has not yet made any firm plans, but raised a step up to Group One level in Newmarket’s Falmouth Stakes on July 14 as a possibility.

“For us, she’s a diamond,” said Sly.

Pam Sly at Doncaster
Pam Sly at Doncaster (Nigel French/PA)

“We were well pleased with the run because the ground was pretty quick for her and I couldn’t understand it when the handicapper dropped her 2lb on Tuesday.

“There’s nothing for her really this month, so we’ve either got a Listed race at Pontefract (Pipalong Stakes, July 11) or we could be absolutely extreme and go for the Falmouth. That would be extreme, but there might be hellish thunderstorms or something at that time of the year, so we’ll see.

“We’re very pleased with her, she’ll have a couple of weeks out in the paddock now and we’ve got one or two Group races between now and September we might be able to have a go at. If we can keep picking up a bit of black type, it will be good.”



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Draw Bias 2022: Part 3b [Top 10 Biases, #5-1]

In the previous article I shared my personal views regarding some of the top draw biases in the UK and Ireland, focusing there specifically on the 10th ‘strongest’ to the 6th, writes Dave Renham. In this follow-up piece, I will reveal my top 5.

It’s important to say that these thoughts are mine and mine alone and, of course, there will be people who disagree with my order. That is how it should be; if we all had the same opinions as regards to horse racing it would be pretty boring! Also, how would we get an edge over other punters if we all thought the same?!

It was noted last time that just because a course and distance has a draw bias, there is no guarantee that the favoured section of the stalls will produce long term profits. Indeed, sometimes there may be value in the ‘worst’ section of the draw. This can happen when the market shortens up the better drawn horses too much. When this happens the prices of other runners get bigger to compensate. Ultimately a 3/1 shot will win more often than a 20/1 shot, but if 3/1 shots win 20 races in every 100, and a 20/1 shots wins 6 races in every 100 then you’d only make a profit on the horses priced 20/1. Successful betting is about value; backing horses that have a better chance of winning than their odds imply.

For each course and distance I will share the raw draw stats, and then dig deeper looking for other angles such as the going or when the number of runners gets close to the maximum. The draw stats data comes from the last six full flat seasons (2016 to 2021) and, as ever, the initial focus will be 8+ runner handicaps. The profit and loss figures are calculated to industry SP. I will also share Betfair SP figures when they make a significant difference. As with last time, as a bonus, I will share some ‘near misses’ that just failed to make the top 10. In fact, let’s start with those near misses:

Near Misses

Gowran Park 7f (good or firmer)

The first Irish course to be discussed is Gowran Park. This seven furlongs course and distance has shown a low bias for some time. More recently, ground staff at the track have introduced a false rail which may change things a little over time. At this point, it is too early to say how much of an affect it will have.

Let me first share the win percentages on all going for each third of the draw. Firstly a look at all races from 2016 to 2021:

 

 

Low draws have a definite edge during this overall time frame. They are drawn on the inside so no surprises there. This is not a huge bias, but it is significant. Here's what happens if we split this into 'three-yearly' chunks:

 

 

The more recent trio of seasons - the false rail was introduced in 2020 - does not seem to have affected the lower draws, but it seems that higher draws are now becoming more competitive against the middle. The PRB figures for each period give us more useful information:

 

 

These figures seem to re-affirm that low draws are enjoying the same sort of advantage they have in the past.

The bias, though, does seem to be stronger on better ground. Here are the splits for 8+ runner handicaps raced on good ground or firmer (2016-2021):

 

Gowran Park 7f fast ground draw bias

 

Horses drawn in the lowest stalls have won 50% of these races compared with just 13.9% for those drawn high. The place percentages show a very strong edge also, as do the A/E, IV and PRB figures.

Also going back further the 2009 to 2015 stats look as strong:

 

 

There is excellent correlation with the more recent data set which adds confidence to what we have uncovered so far.

It was noted in my previous piece that at some draw-biased courses exotic bets such as tricasts or forecasts can prove profitable. This is the case here, too. If you had permed the four lowest drawn horses in full cover tricasts you would have made a small profit of around 6p in the £. The tote trifecta variant would once again have been a far better option as you would have more than doubled your money! An ROI of 120% to be precise. Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing?

To conclude, Gowran Park was close to making the Top 10 and one could make a sound case for it actually being in there. For the Top 10, though, I wanted to stick to what I perceived to be the strongest pure biases without any extra considerations such as going.

Tipperary 5f

A second Irish course in the 'near miss' squad is Tipperary over 5f. The stats are shown below:

 

Tipperary 5f draw bias

 

It is a small data set but all areas correlate strongly in terms of high draws having a good edge. The period 2009 to 2015 is equally supportive of high draws.

Clearly opportunities will be limited, but that is certainly a bias to be aware of.

Catterick 5f  (good to soft or softer)

Catterick is final stop off on my 'near miss' list. When the going gets softer, higher draws start to take control. Here are the figures for races on good to soft or softer ground:

 

Catterick 5f soft ground draw bias

 

The reason high draws tend to do well is that on softer ground jockeys often make a beeline to the stands side rail which appears quicker than the far rail under these conditions. A good example of this was seen in the 15 runner 5f handicap on 26th October 2021:

 

 

On this occasion, the jockeys headed towards the near side and, as can be seen, five of the six highest drawn runners filled the first five places.

Looking at all the races run on good to soft or softer, the three highest drawn runners have all made blind profit to not only BSP, but industry SP as well.

 

 

These are excellent returns across the board. In addition, combining the three highest draws in £1 combination straight forecasts would have yielded a profit of £62.37 (ROI +31.5%). Tricasts / trifectas with the highest four draws combined also would have produced a profit.

Before moving on, it should be pointed out that the bias gets stronger as the going gets softer (soft or heavy ground), although sample is quite small:

 

Catterick 5f draw bias, soft or heavy going

 

So keep an eye on the weather before racing at Catterick. This draw bias to high stalls on good to soft or softer looks a very playable one.

From the near misses - drumroll, please - it’s time for the top five!

5th position – Goodwood 1m

Goodwood over a mile has long been considered a track and trip where draw bias can play a major role. The shame from a punting perspective is that there are very few qualifying races each year. Hence we have a small sample but one with a clear edge to lower draws:

 

Goodwood mile draw bias

 

Low draws have a positive edge in all categories and I now want to look at the individual stall positions and how they have fared:

 

Goodwood mile draw bias by individual stall position

 

Normally with small samples I tend not to look at individual draws / stalls, but these data set show a cut-off point at stall 5. Horses drawn 1 to 5 have won 18 races from 115 runners (SR 15.7%); horses drawn 6 or higher have won just five races from 181 runners (SR 2.8%). This strongly suggests that horses drawn 1 to 5 have been massively favoured.

To conclude, while there are not many qualifying races each year, clearly when there are they are definitely worth a few minutes of our time.

4th position – Goodwood 7f

We drop a furlong at Goodwood to see a similar low draw bias to the mile trip. One advantage of the 7f distance is there are many more races each year as these stats show:

 

Goodwood 7f draw bias

 

We can see strong figures across the board here for low draws. This low draw bias has been evident at Goodwood for most of the last 30 years!

It is worth noting the bias has looked less strong in the most recent three seasons although the PRB figure is still 0.54 for low versus 0.44 for high during that time. That might be down to the fact that the going has been a bit softer in more recent seasons. In general, Goodwood biases over the years have been less prevalent on softer going. The stats back this up when we look at the good or firmer data from 2016 to 2021. Under faster conditions it can be seen that the low draw bias does seem to get stronger:

 

Goodwood 7f fast ground draw bias

 

All categories (win%, place%, A/E, IV, PRB) see an improvement for low draws on better ground as compared with the 'all races' data; and, all categories deteriorate slightly for high draws.

In terms of wins, which essentially is key, the draw win percentages for each third on good ground or firmer can be nicely illustrated by the following pie chart:

 

 

Six in every 10 races have been won by the lowest third of the draw under these firmer going conditions.

The 7f bias also seems to strengthen as the field size increases. In fields of 14 or more runners (all going), the draw stats for each third read as follows:

 

 

Once again we see a 60% win strike rate for low draws, but higher draws perform very poorly. We have seen this before when analysing round course biases. In big fields high draws are likely forced wide meaning they have to run further. Alternatively they can track to the inside, but then they will be faced with several horses to pass in the straight potentially needing good luck in running. It should also be noted that tracking to the inside early on losing ground also. Goodwood has a camber in the straight off which many hard luck stories are founded.

In conclusion, Goodwood over 7f has traditionally seen lower draws having the advantage. This seems to get more potent on good ground or firmer, and when the field size gets to 14+. Unsurprisingly, combining firmer ground and a bigger field accentuates the low advantage and the high disadvantage:

 

Goodwood 7f low draw bias on quick ground in big fields

 

3rd position – Pontefract 1m

Moving into the top 3 and we travel north to Pontefract and its 1 mile trip. This is another round course bias where low draws dominate:

 

Pontefract 1m draw bias

 

This is a very strong bias but, as I noted in my first article in the series, punters and bookmakers alike are much more aware of the strength of the inside edge now. Consequently, prices on the lowest drawn horses have contracted considerably in recent years. Nevertheless, the two lowest stalls have both made a profit to SP (combined profit of 15p in the £, and 21p in the £ at BSP). This is due to the fact that the two lowest drawn runners have won a remarkable 31 races between them. That means nearly 44% of all races have been won by the two stalls closest to the inside rail.

Races with big fields are rare but when we get to 13+ runners the bias seems to strengthen further:

 

Pontefract 1m big field draw bias

 

Yes, I appreciate the sample is only 18 races, but low draws have won or placed four times more often than high draws (31 to 8). This is an eye-catching stat, as is the 0.62 to 0.40 PRB advantage to low draws over high. I think one can be fairly confident the bias does indeed gain potency in big field races.

Moving onto ground conditions, and for races on soft or heavy going, low drawn runners have won 13 of the 22 races, with high draws claiming a single solitary score. Again it's quite a small sample but the trends are clear. A similar pattern can be seen from the data between 2009 and 2015.

Having reviewed all 71 handicap races over 1 mile with 8+ runners, I can report that the exotic bets have once again proved a winner. If you had backed the two lowest drawn horses in £1 reverse forecasts you would have earned a profit of £34.06 (ROI +19.9%). The reverse Tote Exacta returns were even better with £66.50 profit (ROI +46.8%). Perming the four lowest drawn runners in combination tricasts would have yielded a small 2.2% return, while the trifecta would have harvested a very impressive 52.8% return.

These types of bets are not for everyone and they come with a low strike rate coupled with a potentially big bookmaker’s margin, but for small stakes the potential returns can be worth it. One good pay-out can really boost the bank.

Pontefract over a mile has a strong low bias where the focus should be primarily on the two lowest drawn runners. Personally, I would avoid horses drawn 9 or higher – these runners have combined to produced just 6 winners from 199 runners, a measly 3% strike rate.

2nd position – Pontefract 1m 2f

Staying at Pontefract we move up two furlongs to the mile and a quarter trip. I looked at this bias briefly in my second article in this series using the racecourse map below to show readers there is an extra left handed turn at this trip helping low draws further:

 

 

The draw stats are strong as one would expect:

 

Pontefract 10f draw bias

 

At this distance compared to mile range, the market is not quite as aware of the edge low draws have, so finding past profitable angles ought to be possible. For a start, you would have made a blind profit to Betfair SP backing all four lowest drawn horses in the 39 races in the sample. Those 156 runners would have produced a profit of £23.73 to £1 level stakes equating to returns of just over 15p in the £. Amazing when you think about it really – backing four horses in every race for 39 races, and you would have made good money. The bottom four stalls accounted for 24 of the winners from 156 runners; stalls located five or more away from the inside rail accounted for 15 winners but from 242 runners.

Earlier, it was noted that the stats indicated that over a mile on soft or heavy ground the bias seems to get stronger. That theory is given extra confidence when we see the same pattern over this 1m 2f distance. It should be said there have only been 10 qualifying races on soft or heavy since 2016 but just look at the win percentages for each third of the draw:

 

 

Nine of the ten races in this small sample were won by low draws. In addition to that, the win and placed stats combined correlate strongly as we can see:

 

 

I am confident that on soft or heavy ground the bias gets more potent.

Moving back to the ‘all races’ stats, one remarkable fact is that the lowest five draws filled the first three places on no less than 11 occasions, two of which happened within an hour and a half of each other!

It should come as no surprise therefore that perming these five draws in tricasts and trifectas would have landed favourable returns. Perming five horses in all possible combinations of 1st, 2nd and 3rd amounts to a chunky 60 bets per race, so using small stakes of 10p per line (bet) makes sense, bringing in the 'per race' cost at £6. If we had done this perm using the tricast in all 39 races there would have been an outlay of £234, with £281.96 returned, giving us a profit of £47.90 (ROI +20.5%). As we have seen thus far, the trifecta tends to outdo the tricast bet, and it does it here - in style. Trifecta returns would have been £529.13 giving us a whopping profit of £295.13 (ROI +126.1%).

Pontefract over 1m 2f is a course and distance on which to keep a close eye from a draw perspective this year. It will be interesting to monitor the prices of the lower draws in the next couple of seasons; if they contract more, then profits will be harder to come by.

And, finally, it’s time for my number one draw bias in Britain and Ireland...

 

1st position – Chester 5f

Yes, I fully appreciate this is not a huge shocker, but I am confident about its status as the number 1 spot: the award goes to the minimum trip at Chester. This is despite the fact that they are moving the inside rail from time to time in an attempt to negate the bias. The rail movement seems to affect this shortest trip the least, and draw bias fans should stick to the minimum 5f trip and not include the extended 5½f range in considerations.

Here are the stats:

 

Chester 5f draw bias

 

As I've said, yes, the bias is well known, but as far as draw biases go, it is still the strongest. The problem, of course, is making a profit from this widely held awareness. I discussed in the first article in the series how the prices at Chester on low drawn runners have contracted in recent years. Ultimately, this is why it is hard to make profits at Chester any more. That is, low still wins as often as it ever did (give or take - see below), but the available prices are tighter these days.

Going back to how the rail movement may be affecting this minimum 5f  trip, if we compare the PRB figures from 2016 to 2018 with 2019 to 2021, we can start to see a slight weakening of the bias.

 

 

High draws seem to struggle just as much as ever, but middle draws are a little more competitive as a result of the false rail. All in all, though, low draws continue to enjoy a very significant edge.

In terms of running styles, a low draw coupled with a prominent run style, be it leading or tracking the pace, is a potent combination here as the image below illustrates.

 

Chester draw and pace bias heat map

 

We can see that the advantage of a low draw disappears if you race near the back early. Low draws that led early or raced prominently have been responsible for 16 winners from 59 runners (27% strike rate), which compares very well next to middle or high draws that raced mid division early or were held up – they have provided just 3 winners from 126 runners (2.4% strike rate).

The evidence is clear: combine a low draw with early pace over 5f at Chester and then you have a very effective combination.

With these five top draw bias courses, then, I've demonstrated my personal top ten UK and Irish draw biases, as well as a few 'bonus' also ran's. Please share your thoughts in the comments, especially if you think I’ve missed one. Thanks as always for reading, and good luck.

- DR

 

 

 



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Draw Bias 2022: Part 2

In the first article in this series I looked at how the draw can influence the market and how the market can change over time to compensate, writes Dave Renham.

Occasionally the market still gets it wrong regarding draw bias but that is increasingly rare. This is because horse racing betting markets are usually extremely efficient (by the time the race goes off, at least), not just taking the draw into account, but multiple other key factors. In this article I am going to share more draw-based research that I hope you will find interesting and ultimately useful for your own betting.

For those Gold members of Geegeez, the good news is that you are able to research the draw in two places: the Draw Analyser and the Query Tool. How you use each to study the draw is partly personal choice, but I would suggest that best insights are obtained when deploying both, not just one or the other; I use both tools for my research. Essentially, if I am just looking at the draw and nothing else I will use the Draw Analyser, but if I want to use the draw in conjunction with other factors then I’ll use the Query Tool.

When using the Geegeez Draw Analyser the stalls are split into three sections or ‘thirds’ – low, middle and high. What this means is that in a 12 runner race for example, draws 1 to 4 would be in the low third, 5 to 8 in the middle, and 9 to 12 high.

TYPES OF DRAW BIAS

I want to start by talking about types of draw bias. I believe there are two types of bias. Firstly a bias that favours a particular section of the draw; secondly a bias against a particular section of the draw. Let me illustrate with a couple of examples using draw data from 2016 to 2021. Unless otherwise stated, in this article I am going to focus on 8+ runner handicaps during this six-year period.

Pontefract 1m 2f

It is rare to get effective draw biases at distances of 1m2f or more, but Pontefract is an exception. If we look at the track configuration we can perhaps see why this bias exists:

 

 

Low draws are positioned on the inside and with an early left turn this gives them the advantage of taking the shortest route assuming they break well. In contrast, higher drawn runners are either stuck out wide round the first turn or forced to tuck in mid pack or near the back, or they need to be rushed forward to get a position thus using energy very early in the race.

There is a second left hand turn after about another two furlongs cementing the early positional advantage for low drawn runners; and there is a third turn about a quarter mile from home which again favours those racing near to the inside rail. Let’s look at the most recent six-season data now:

 

 

The stats show a clear advantage to one section of the draw (LOW); there is a significant advantage in most areas. Low drawn runners win more often, place more often, have higher IV values and higher PRB figures, too. However, backing all such runners to SP would have made a small loss and the A/E index value is lower than the middle section’s A/E value. This factor was referenced in the first article: the market at Pontefract clearly appreciates there is a draw bias. Just because one section of the draw is clearly favoured, this not in itself a license to print money! For the record, however, you would have made a small profit  of £11.98 during this period backing low draws to Betfair SP.

Pontefract over 1m 2f is an example of a bias strongly favouring a particular section. With middle draws out-performing higher draws, this is an example of a fairly linear relationship: the lower the draw the better. Draw 1 is better than draw 6; draw 6 is better than draw 10 etc.

 

 

Now for an example of a draw bias against a particular section of the draw.

Musselburgh 5f

The sprint 5f trip at Musselburgh is essentially a straight five but there is a slight kink to the left at the 3f pole which can slightly hinder wider drawn runners. With Musselburgh being a right handed course at longer distances, it means horses drawn next to the rail are the higher drawn runners. Here are the stats:

 

 

This is far from being a strong draw bias, but there is a bias against lower drawn runners compared with high and middle drawn runners. Low drawn runners come out comfortably bottom in all of the parameters as shown in the breakdown above. Looking at 2009 to 2015 we get a similar picture which gives further confidence that this is likely to continue this season and beyond.

 

 

It does seem that the kink to the left at the 3f pole is enough to make life more difficult for the wide (low)-drawn runners.

 

Indeed if we ignore 8- and 9-runner races (the smallest fields), and look at handicap races with ten or more runners we get the following results:

 

 

All of the low drawn variables deteriorate further, and such horses are winning only just above half of the races they statistically should (IV 0.53, an Impact Value of 1.00 being on par). Consequently, both middle and high draws are winning more races than they statistically should. One would expect to see those wider draws (low) struggling more over 5f at Musselburgh as the field size increases. However, it is always good to see results in black and white - as per the image above - to back up a theory.

 

INDIVIDUAL DRAWS / STALLS

A question: when you look at draw biased course and distances, what do you focus in on? The so called favoured third of the draw only? The favoured half of the draw? Or do you go further and have a preference for specific draws / stalls?

There is an argument to back the horse that is in ‘pole position’ especially on a turning track. One would think that would be the horse housed closest to the inside (i.e. drawn 1). However, the stats I have uncovered suggest differently. The stats suggest the second closest horse to the inside (i.e. actual draw 2 - 'actual' draw being the real position a horse was drawn, after accounting for any non-runners) is generally most favoured.

To show this in more detail I have looked at all 8+ runner handicaps over 5f and 6f run around a bend (2016-2021). For the record there are 12 UK courses where 5f and/or 6f races occur round a bend (seven turf courses and five on the all-weather).

Firstly I want to compare win and placed strike rates (N.B. Place SR% includes winners with the placed runners).

 

 

The margins may look quite small but they are significant as the data set covers over 2400 handicap races over 5/6f. All other key stats also point in favour of 'actual' draw 2. Firstly A/E values:

 

 

Runners drawn 2 have been far better value than those drawn 1. This is a much bigger difference than I had expected.

Next a look at profit / loss figures. Firstly a comparison of traditional SP figures (to £1 level stakes):

 

 

Losses of nearly 26p in the £ if backing all horses drawn 1 are bankruptcy territory; a smaller 8p in the £ loss for all horses drawn 2 would see a far more protracted slide to the proverbial poorhouse. But, here's Betfair SP to save the day:

 

 

The flow of bleeding has been stemmed from stall 1 but there are still bank-destroying losses; whereas trap 2 is now in the black!

But... we already know that profit / loss figures can easily be skewed by big-priced outlier winners, especially using Betfair odds. So I thought it worth comparing stats for the two draws when the Betfair SP was no bigger than 16.0. Here is what I found:

 

 

We can now see that big priced winners are not skewing the stats. Draw 2 once again has a better strike rate (both win and placed), better returns and a much stronger A/E value.

So what is actually happening here to promote stall two above the notionally best-drawn box, stall one? That is something I have pondered for many years because I have seen this type of pattern repeating time and again.

One plausible theory is that it may simply be down to the fact that horses drawn right next to the rail have less room for manoeuvre. With a rail on their inside, if they break from the stalls poorly then they are very likely to be stuck behind one or more horses. Their options are compromised until they've completed the turn by which time it may be too late. Meanwhile, horses drawn 2 have a little more space either side of them and hence more options if they break slowly. Whether this theory is true or not I obviously cannot say, but there is logic there, and it is a pattern replicated in US dirt racing at sprint distances around a turn.

What is clear in terms of the stats: in 5-6f handicaps round a turn it is preferable to be drawn 2 rather than 1.

Before moving on, I mentioned that 12 courses were in that sample and, of those 12 courses, only Kempton saw a clear advantage to horses drawn 1 over those drawn 2. Two courses - Epsom (6f) and Wetherby 5½f - had limited data (just 16 and 15 races respectively), while the other nine courses all favoured horses drawn 2 over horses drawn 1, most of them fairly strongly.

 

 

GOOD DRAWS WITH PRICE CONSIDERATIONS

As we have seen, backing a specific draw / stall under certain conditions could produce a profitable scenario. However, this idea is full of risks as we are pinning our hopes on one stall position and nothing else. So, how about combining a good draw with market factors? This is what we are going to look at next.

I have taken six of the strongest draw biases from the past six seasons (these are Chester over 5f and 7f; Goodwood over 7f and 1 mile; and Pontefract over 1 mile and 1 mile 2 furlongs). From there I have focused on the four stalls closest to the favoured inside rail: actual draws 1 to 4. Then I have ordered them depending on price. My idea is to compare price position of these good draws to see if there are patterns to be found.

By way of an example, let’s imagine the following scenario:

 

 

That would mean an order as follows:

 

 

Here are the actual results for the six course/distances (profit/loss has been calculated to Betfair SP and we are again focusing on handicaps with eight or more runners):

Chester 5f 

 

Chester 7f 

 

Goodwood 7f 

 

Goodwood 1 mile

 

Pontefract 1 mile

 

Pontefract 1 mile 2 furlongs

 

Combining the six courses we get the following results:

 

It seems therefore the best value lies at either end of the price position spectrum. The shortest priced runners drawn 1 to 4 have made the biggest profit. They have also had a decent strike rate of 28.6%. The biggest priced runner from draws 1 to 4 have also made good profits although it would have been a bit of a rollercoaster with just 13 wins from 258 runners (SR 5%).

So is this the way to go? I'm not sure, but I believe the idea is worthy of more digging in the future. I’ll add it to my rapidly expanding research list!

- DR

 



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