Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24
Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Pontefract, Stratford, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth.
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
And there's soft ground at Pontefract, so we'll head there for six races beginning with...
Leg 1 @ 1.17, an 11-runner, Class 4, 2yo handicap over 6f...
Top Juggler, Dark Rosa & Sir Palamedes all won last time out, Stirrup Cup has finished 12 in his last two and despite being a 5-race maiden, Georgecandoit has never been out of the first three home and drops two classes here, as does Stirrup Cup.
Dark Rosa has already won over course and distance and Top Juggler, Shazani, Stirrup Cup & Sir Palamedes have 6f wins under their belts, whilst Top Juggler, Stirrup Cup & Larchill Lass have all won on soft ground and on a track/trip where early pace is often key...
...the ones setting the tempo are likely to be that quartet above. Dark Rosa ticks plenty of boxes here, as does fast finisher Top Juggler and then it's a case of picking one from Stirrup Cup, Georgecandoit and Sir Palamedes for me. Two of that trio drop two classes here and of that pair, I think I prefer Stirrup Cup, so it's (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup here.
Leg 2 @ 1.52, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...
No LTO winners but Music Society has been runner-up twice on the bounce and Alafdhal three times. Yazaman failed to make the frame in his last two, but won his previous three and both Willolarupi & Mrs Trump both won three starts ago.
Most of the field have won over 5f already, Music Society has also won here at Ponty over 6f, whilst Alafdhal is a former course and distance winner and this pair are both on my Instant Expert watchlist, as well as being off significantly lower marks than past wins...
...so I'll take both of these along with Object, who wasn't far behind Alafdhal last time out, despite racing all alone on the "wrong" side at Catterick last time out, but as a front runner with a plun draw here, he could well take the race never mind make the frame!
(6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal from this one.
Leg 3 @ 2.27, a 7-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m2f...
Tequila Star, Sir Dinadan & Novelista all made the frame last time out and the latter is the only runner not stepping up in class. Sir Dinadan improved tremendously from his debut to then be a runner-up at Haydock and with further improvement expected, a low draw and these stats...
...(4) Sir Dinadan is probably the one to beat with (3) Novelista likely to push him hardest.
Leg 4 @ 3.02, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m...
Epidavros is of immediate interest coming here off the back of two wins including one over a mile on soft ground. Sea The Dream has two wins (one on heavy) and two places from six this year, Good Morning Alex has won six of his last ten starts (5 from 8 over today's trip), whilst unexposed Retracement has a win and a place from his three outings, including a course and distance win here back in July and I think these are the four I'm keenest on.
I don't actually think that there's much between them overall, but Good Morning Alex's last two runs make him vulnerable on form. That said, he's the front-runner in this race...
...and that clearly puts him back in the mix, so I'm going to fudge it here and take all four! (1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros.
Leg 5 @ 3.37, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...
Justus returns from a 163 day break to see if he can complete a hat-trick after winning three and being a runner-up in one of his last five starts. He own here over course and distance on heavy ground three starts ago and is only 5lbs higher here and drops in class. He has a real chance of making the frame or better again today if he's not to rusty after his break, but I suspect the ones to be on here here might be Surrey Force and Cinnodin.
Neither of this pair are prolific winners, but are steady solid consistent types, like you need at this type of trip/going. Surrey Force is the sole 3yo in the race and for that, he'll get a more than useful 10lbs allowance. He ran really well from a car park drawn to finish third at Chester last time out and won't have to run that far/wide today!
Cinnodin is only 1lb higher than when finishing third in this race last year, was a good second of thirteen over 2m at Kempton last time out, now drops in class and is ridden by Rossa Ryan who likes it here at Ponty...
The main danger in taking the above three is, I feel, that Justus might well need the run after over five months off the track and the 5yo mare Yorkindness might well be the one who benefits from that.
She's a three-time winner (all wins here) from five starts at 2m1f and has made the frame in three of her last five at 2m2f, whilst her record here at Ponty reads 11153. She has won on soft ground before, she won the last time Jason Hart rode her and she drops three classes today, so I think she might just be a slightly safer pick today with Justus one to watch next time out, perhaps but I'm siding with (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness and (9) Surrey Force today.
Leg 6 @ 4.12, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m...
Bottom weight Style of Life is the sole LTO winner in the field and comes here with three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last eight outings. Urban Sprawl was a runner-up at Ayr six days ago, beaten by just a head. He runs off the same mark here and with no disrespect intended, a pro jockey might get a bit more from him in the finish today, as might Poets Dawn who is reunited with David Allan today who has ridden this veteran to six of his ten career wins.
He didn't run or get ridden badly last time out, though and was an undisgraced sixth of seventeen at York and having won over 1m1f at Carlisle on his previous outing, looks one to consider here again. Walsingham is also interesting, despite being a nine-race maiden.
He had been knocking on the door, finishing 332 in his last three races in Ireland before moving to David O'Meara's yard. He probably needed the run last time out on yard debut, not having raced for 398 days, but went well for much of the race, only fading badly late on and he should come on for that effort.
These four are my shortlist here and they head the four-race pace ratings...
Walsingham is probably the weaker of the four, based on past efforts and although the O'Meara/Tudhope combo is generally to be feared, the yard's record with handicap debutants over the last year doesn't really stack up with the yard's overall prowess
... I'll go with (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life here although Walsingham might well spoil the party!
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All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup
Leg 2: (6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal
Leg 3: (3) Novelista & (4) Sir Dinadan
Leg 4:(1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros
Leg 5: (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness & (9) Surrey Force
Leg 6: (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck!
Chris
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