Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 13/05/24

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Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.47 Catterick
  • 4.55 Roscommon
  • 5.35 Windsor
  • 5.55 Roscommon
  • 6.40 Killarney

Regular readers will know that I rarely get involved with Irish racing, which takes away three of the five races above for me, but each to their own of course! And if I'm honest, I'm not really too interested in the two UK races above either, so I'm just going to look at the highest-rated race in the UK, the 6.35 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

My initial thoughts before diving in were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad, but let's see what the data tells us...

Leap Abroad won last time out, sixteen days ago and Laoisman completed a hat-trick five weeks ago, as he returned from 195 days off the track, so he has come back fresh. We've no other LTO winners, but both Katey Kontent and Coup de Force were runners-up on their last runs, but Katey Knotent is actually the only one in this field without at least one win in their last six outings, having been beaten in all seven starts (albeit narrowly in her last two) since winning her first two starts back in May 2022.

Her cause might not be helped by a 1lb and 1 class rise here today, but she's not alone in stepping up as Laosman, Leap Abroad and Coup de Force all make the same move from Class 4, whilst bottom-weight Lady Dreamer is up two classes here. Moving down in class are top-weight Executive Decision and Dusky Lord, who drop from Class 2 action, but both might be in need of a run after breaks of 203 and 220 days respectively; this might also apply to Katey Kontent (221 days) and Coup de Force (202 days).

Aside from the four runners above who haven't raced since last October, the other half-dozen have all had at least one run since the start of April. The trip should be fine for most of these, as only Rhythm n Hooves and Katey Kontent have yet to win at this distance and both Indian Creak and Lady Dreamer have achieved the feat here at Windsor in August '23 and July '23 respectively. Katey Kontent's form over 6f is improving and reads 432, but she has won over 5f here at Windsor, back in May 2022 on what was just her second outing...

Instant Expert probably helps us put red marks against runners rather than green ticks today, as Indian Creak and to lesser extent, Coup de Force, look unsuited by the going, whilst Indian Creak's win record at Class 3 is lamentable with his 6 from 42 at the trip hardly setting the world alight. Lady Dreamer has struggled to win at this trip, too, with just one win from eight. That said, she has made the frame in four of her seven defeats...

Indian Creak still looks weak, though and whilst I'm unsure of many of these from a win perspective, you could make a case for most of them to make the frame over a track and trip that has rewarded low-drawn runners most in terms of wins, but has offered more opportunities to make the frame from those drawn highest...

...but the big thing here at Windsor is pace, which fits in nicely with today's free feature. If truth be told, the draw bias above isn't massive but if we look at how those 110+ races above were won...

...it's pretty clear what the optimum tactics would be and this means we're looking for the horses with high pace scores. For those unsure how this works (it's in the user guide better than I'll explain!) we look at every race in the UK and award a score of 4 to a horse that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for those who raced in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up horse. It's not an exact timed science, but it really does help us to see who might well set the pace.

Our field's last four runs look like this...

...with Leap Around the likely front-runner ahead of Lady Dreamer, Indian Creak and Laoisman, whilst both Kiwano and Katey Kontent arrive here on the back of three hold-up runs and if that's repeated here, they'll find it hard to win, I'd have thought.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad. After everything I've written/read, I'm still pretty keen on two of them, but I can't warm to Katey Kontent right now. She's on a losing run, but on a rising mark and up in class. She's likely to need a run after a lay-off and shouldn't be suited here from a pace perspective.

If I follow my daily processes as above, she's a definite no (watch her now romp home at 6/1!) but I'm sticking with Laoisman and Leap Abroad and I've got them in that order too.

For a third horse to make the frame, I want to be on a horse with a recent run, so not Coup de Force, Executive Decision nor Dusky Lord. Of the four remaining options, I'm inclined to side with Lady Dreamer, who has an excellent place record under today's conditions. She won her last start of 2023 and clearly needed a run last time out, she's a course and distance winner, she gets weight all round and runs off a mark lower than her last win.

No odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday afternoon, but an average of the tissues provided by Oddschecker, Timeform & Racing Post has Laoisman at 10/3, Leap Around at 4.11/1 (37/9 anyone?) and Lady Dreamer at 14.67 (44/3) respectively, so there might well be an E/W bet in the offing.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...


...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 2.45 Haydock
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.35 Hexham
  • 5.45 Hexham

Of all those races above, the Class 1 Swinton handicap hurdle (3.15 Haydock) is the highest-rated, but the 1.50 Lingfield, the 4.20 Ascot and the 4.35 Hexham from the 'free' list also have runners on my TJC Report and from this trio of races, I'm going to focus upon the highest-rated, which is the 1.50 Lingfield. It's a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m3f and 133yds on good ground and here's the line-up...

Flash Bardot has won three of her last four and along with Aimeric (2 from 5 and 3 from 6) arrive here on the back of wins last time out, but the former is turned back out quickest just a fortnight after winning at Doncaster on her return from a six-month break. Aimeric, on the other hand, has been off the track 252 days, which is longer than any other runner in this field and he could need the run here.

In fact, aside from Flash Bardot, Peking Opera (21 days) and Base Note (43 days), the rest of the field are all returning from lay-offs after finishing outside of the frame on their last outings.

Yard & UK debutant Kolossal and Peking Opera both make handicap debuts here and the latter will also wear blinkers for the first time, as he drops in class after a couple of unsuccessful Class 1 outings. Track of Time is another handicap debutant on his first UK run, If Not Now has been gelded whilst away from the track and Flash Bardot steps up a class.

None of the field have even raced on this track before, but all bar Peking Opera, If Not Now and Track of Time have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

INSTANT EXPERT...

True Legend, Aimeric and Global Heat have the best good ground records and Aimeric is probably the pick of the bunch off an admittedly fairly sparse amount of data. Flash Bardot is proven at the trip, as is True Legend and these are probably the four standouts from this piece of analysis, although Global Heat and True Legend do run off far higher marks than their last turf successes.

DRAW...

The inference here (to me, at lest) is that you'd ideally be berthed relatively centrally to high in stalls 3 to 7, perhaps? Runners in stall 1 have seemed to struggle, winning just one of the twenty-eight races, which isn't great news for Kolossal on his first run in the UK, but followers of Aimeric & Flash Bardot amongst others will be buoyed by the draw.

PACE...

Essentially, you don't really want to be on a hold-up type here at Lingfield, but that doesn't mean they can't win, it just makes life more difficult, That said, if those drawn centrally take the race on, then it might be wise for those either side to just drop in behind and wait for the right moment to attack. The field's most recent UK outings...

...suggest that Aimeric might have to pass all his rivals if he's going to win this, although several of them have raced in the rear of late. One thing I'm fairly sure of is that Global Heat will attempt to force the pace here.

Summary

The names that keep cropping up during the analysis are Flash Bardot, Aimeric and True Legend and as of 3.20pm on Friday, they were trading at 6/1 (Coral), 9/4 (Bet365 & Coral) and 11/2 (Bet365) respectively at the head of the market and at those odds, Flash Bardot is the one that interests me most. She's had a recent run, she's in good form and is drawn well.

Aimeric looks too short at 9/4 after a long lay-off and his running style might cause him a problem, although he's certainly good enough to prove me wrong, whilst True Legend might also need the run.

Global Heat (16/1 gen) and Base Note (14/1 gen) both featured fairly prominently in the analysis above and whilst unlikely winners here  both could easily outrun those odds and make the frame. Base Note has had the benefit of a comeback run six weeks ago so might just be the better option of the two if you fancied a longer-odds punt.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/05/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.05 Chester
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 5.10 Ascot
  • 5.27 Nottingham
  • 6.55 Sedgefield
  • 7.15 Ripon

The highest-rated of all those races above is the Huxley Stakes, aka the 3.05 Chester, a 9-runner, 4yo+, Group 2 Flat contest over a left-handed 1m2f (+70yds) on good ground...

Hans Andersen, Passenger and Sunchart all won their last races and Israr finished third a fortnight ago. Regal Reality comes here on the longest losing run, but even he won six races ago.

All bar Oviedo raced at Class 1 last time and he now steps up in class as he runs for the first time since being gelded; Mashhoor will be in first-time cheekpieces. Oviedo might also be in need of a run, having been off the track since the Cambridgeshire at the end of September last year.

Fellow returner Royal Rhyme has been off for 202 days, whilst Passenger hasn't been seen since his Group 3 win at Windsor last August. The other half dozen have all raced in the last two to seven weeks with Israr turned back out quickest just a fortnight after coming within a length of landing a Group 3 at Sandown off the back of a 202-day lay-off. (I also covered that race here and my 1-2-3 finished 1-3-2).

All bar Hans Andersen have won over a similar trip to this one, but none of the field have won here at Chester before according to Instant Expert. Mind you only two of them have raced here in a total of three appearances...

Certain Lad and Sunchart look up against it based on past relevant runs and Sunchart has been extensively tried at Class 1 without too many wins of late, even if he did win a Listed race at Naas last time out. That was on heavy ground and this should be too quick for him (he's 2/9 on soft/heavy and heavy and 0/22 on anything better!). Oviedo also looks weak and if we add his record above to the expected rustiness and the step up in class, there's not much going his way here, so that's three runners I'm happy to overlook already.

In a race of this status, I'd expect the place stats from above to have a lot of green about it, so when I see this...

...I'm also switched off about Regal Reality's chances and if we omit him here, I'm left with runners in stalls 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8...

This isn't a handicap, of course, so all runners carry equal weight, which technically makes Israr a pound better off that Royal Rhyme and a full 9lbs better than Hans Andersen. There's an old adage that you need to be drawn low on the ever-turning oval here at Chester, but this week's results suggest that might not necessarily be the case, but the historical data for a race like this says...


...that anywhere in the first five stalls could be considered advantageous, which suits the three highest-rated runners (Israr, Royal Rhyme & Passenger) more than the other two drawn wider, but it's not all about the draw here at Chester. The tactical side of things is really important and the data from those races above suggest that a quick start is needed with those prepared to set the pace faring decidedly better than those who don't...

...as it's all very well getting drawn in stall 1, but if you're not first to the turn, you run the risk of getting 'cut-up' by the faster horses coming from wider. If we then look at how our field might set out, based on their more recent outings...

...I'd say that Mashhoor and Royal Rhyme from my final five were better suited by the pace profile of 1m2f at Chester. Israr is going to have work hard late on, although he did race prominently a fortnight ago and Passenger will have even more to do from the back and I'm concerned about his fitness after the lay-off

Summary

Based on what I've written above, what I've see from racecourses and my own personal opinions/ratings, my three to beat here are (alphabetically) Israr, Passenger and Royal Rhyme.

I think that Passenger is probably the best of three, but might need a run after being off track for so long and he probably won't be suited by the pace of the race. I've no doubts that I'll be backing him to win a Group 2 race 9or better) in the future, but at the current (6.55pm Thursday) odds of 9/4, I think I'll pass on that.

Having had that recent run, Israr shades it for me here today, but his 11/4 odds aren't particularly exciting if truth be told, but it is what it is. As for Royal Rhyme, I suspect/hope he gives the pair of them a real good run for their money and if he drifts much from his 6/1 ticket, then he'd be a real E/W possibility for me. Perhaps front-running Regal Reality might outrun his 14/1 odds and make the frame?

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 Huntingdon
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 3.18 Brighton
  • 6.40 Tipperary
  • 7.10 Tipperary
  • 9.00 Chelmsford

I fancy looking at some Flat/AW action today, but the Chester race above only has five runners and the Brighton race looks a poor quality affair full of inexperienced runners, so let's head to Essex for some late evening all-weather action and the 9.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

My initial thoughts were that this might well end up being a battle between stablemates Conquest of Power and Heerathetrack, who'll make the 250-mile round trip from Mark Usher's yard in Lambourn along with Q Twenty Boy who goes in the 6.30 race.

Conquest of Power is one of two (Thomas Equinas in the other) LTO winners in the field and Thomas Equinas has won three of his last four. Annie Law won her penultimate race, as did Poetic Jack, whilst Heerathetrack and Alexander James were both in the frame last time out. The latter, however, joins Golden Passport as having no win in six, having been beaten in 14 races on the bounce; Golden Passport has lost ten in a row.

He drops in class today (as does Harry The Haggler) and hasn't raced for two months, but that break won't be the reason he doesn't win here today, although the lay-offs for Poetic Jack (154 days), Annie Law (176 days) and Thomas Equinas (217 days) might be an issue here.

Alexander James is the only runner without a win at this trip and all runners here bar him, Golden Passport, Annie Law and Harry The Haggler are course and distance winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which has Thomas Equinas as the eyecatcher with a decent set of numbers and he's only 4lbs higher than his last win, but it has been seven months since that run/win here over course and distance. Conquest of Power's record at Class 6 isn't great at 1 from 8, but the win was last time out and he has already won at both Class 4 and Class 5. His record here doesn't look good either, but I believe that he has been a regular placer; we'll check that in a moment!

Alexander James looks particularly vulnerable here on his 14-race losing streak and it's probably fair to assume that he'll join Golden Passport in being excluded from my thoughts, even if the following place data shows him in a better light...

...which it doesn't to be honest. Just 4 places from 17 on standard going simply isn't enough. On a brighter note, my thoughts about Conquest of Power being a regular placer were spot on and Harry the Haggler also looks like an E/W or place prospect with Thomas Equinas still leading the way.

Thomas Equinas has been drawn plumb centre of the stalls with Heerathetrack taking stall 1 and King of Ithaca out in box nine, but if we look back at similar races since the start of 2020, our draw analyser suggests that stall position wouldn't be a significant factor in a horse's chances of winning this race...

...although the lower the draw, the slightly better the chance (+13% low over high) of making the frame, which is good news for Heerathetrack, who normally tends to race in the middle of the pack and has done so in each of his last four outings...

...with Golden Passport looking the likely back marker. There's no out and out front runner in this field, although Harry The Haggler did set the pace two starts ago and Poetic Jack lad for 6 of the 7 furlongs last time out, but wilted away to 8th of 9 and a 7-length defeat, so I wouldn't expect similar tactics from him. To be honest, I wouldn't be too surprised if Conquest of Power and course specialist Thomas Equinas didn't take it on between them.

Summary

Chelmsford really suits those willing to set the tempo of the race and both Conquest of Power and Thomas Equinas look capable of doing this and both arrive here on the back of a winning run last time out, albeit seven months ago in Thomas' case. His last three runs here have seen him win over course and distance twice either side of a win over a mile, so he's clearly the one to beat in this track when fit, but the lack of a run just tips the balance back towards Conquest of Power for me.

Conquest of Power would be my idea of a winner here, but I can see Thomas Equinas also making the frame. I'm not as sold on Heerathetrack as I thought I might be, but he still stands a decent chance of making the frame, as does Harry The Haggler.

The early (3.20pm Wednesday) bet365 market agrees with me about Conquest of Power (sadly)...

...but it does have Thomas Equinas as borderline E/W territory, depending on your personal odds cut-off point for E/W bets. I know Alexander James ran pretty well when finishing third over course and distance last time out, but hold-up horses have a poor record here and he has lost his last fourteen races, making the frame just twice. I might be missing something, but he wouldn't anywhere near second favourite in my book; I'd probably only have Annie Law, Golden Passport and Poetic Jack behind him.

We'll see! 😉

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/05/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...

...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Chester
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 5.50 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Fontwell

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from and I did fancy a switch away from the jumps, but none of the four Flat/AW contests appealed to me from the angle of having to write a column, so we're heading North to look at Fergal O'Brien's 6yr old mare Politacus from above, as she tackles the 3.45 Kelso, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Lily du Berlais and Strong Belle both won last time out after finishing second on their previous outings, but after two wins on the bounce, featured runner Politacus comes here on a hat-trick. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Shakeyatailfeather and Brendas Asking are both 6-race maidens, whilst Spit Spot has lost her last eleven outings and Mary has yet to get off the mark after eight attempts!

Spit Spot and Brendas Asking's bids to finally land a win are unlikely to be aided by stepping up two classes from their last run, whilst Politacus, Mighty Moth and Linda Moon all make the same double class rise here. Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather are all up one level today but Mick's Jet and bottom-weight Dame ofthecotwolds both raced at Class 1 three weeks ago with the latter a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Cheltenham.

This will the Dame's second run in a handicap, as it will for Brendas Asking, Linda Moon and Mighty Moth, whilst Lily du Berlais, Mick's Jet, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather all make their handicap debuts here. Linda Moon is in a first time tongue-tie and Politacus will sport cheekpieces for the first time.

All twelve have raced at least once in the last ten weeks so there should be no fitness worries for a field that hasn't won a race between them here at Kelso (mind you, they are only 0 from 2!), but the top six on the card have all at least won over this type of trip, although Instant Expert says they haven't won very many races at all...

...so we might find that the place data is of more value to us today...

Lily du Berlais is certainly proven at the trip already and most of them have a reasonable enough place record over this distance. The truth is that they're a relatively inexperienced bunch; Spit Spot has had twenty races (just 2 wins!, but the other nine have only been on a track 85 times between them and of the field's 16 from 105 (15.24%) strike rate, Lily du Berlais and Politacus account for 5 wins from 19 (26.32%) and although the latter prefers the ground a bit softer, I wouldn't rule her out just yet.

Previous similar races here at Kelso have pretty much gone with the racing position adopted by the runners, with leaders proving the most successful...

...which based on recent outings, would appear to suit the top handful of runners on this graphic the most...

Summary

From a recent form perspective, Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and featured runner Politacus would appear to be the ones to keep an eye out for and Lily du Berlais definitely seemed the one to beat at this trip, according to Instant Expert.

Politacus and Lily du Berlais have the best strike rates in the field and the former just about made the top-five on average pace score. Lily du Berlais didn't quite make it, but did race prominently last time out when winning very comfortably at Ayr. Politacus would probably prefer the ground to be a little softer, but I don't see the ground preventing her from making the frame, although I suspect she'll have to play second fiddle to Lily du Berlais today with Strong Belle also a leading contender for the places.

Early dart for me today (football play-offs again!), so no odds available at 3pm, but my 1-2-3 would be Lily du Berlais - Politacus - Strong Belle. I might add an E/W possible (if none of these three trade at 8/1+) when I see the market, as some firms are paying four places on this one.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where all four must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.05 Navan
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.42 Southwell
  • 5.20 Ballinrobe
  • 8.12 Southwell

Aside from one class 3 contest at Fakenham, Class 4 is about as 'good' as it gets in the UK for Tuesday, so let's focus on a pair of runners from The Shortlist, who'll take each other plus nine more on in the 7.00 Hereford, a 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a trip just 73 yards short of two and a half miles on good ground...

My Chiquita has won each of her last two over hurdles and Big Blue Moon won last time out. Notnowlinda and Soldierofthestorm both won their penultimate races, whilst all bar Sacchoandvanzetti (17 losses on the bounce) have won at least once in their last six.

Sacchoandvanzetti's cause isn't helped by stepping up two classes here, but Notnowlinda, Silver Shade and Just Go For It all drop two classes. My Chiquita moves up one grade and Just Loose Change drops one.

It's handicap debut day for Soldat Force and My Chiquita and a second crack for both Cabhfuilfungi and Silver Shade with the latter also making a yard debut, as does Soldierofthestorm.

Most of the field have raced in the last ten weeks, but Just Loose Change, Soldat Forte and Silver Shade might well need the run after breaks of four months, ten months and nineteen months respectively.

Soldierofthestorm's win here two starts ago on Valentine's Day is this field's only course and distance success, although My Chiquita, Just Loose Change, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It have all previously won over a similar trip and Just Go For It (2m6f hurdle) has also won here at Hereford before, as has Notnowlinda (2m½f hurdle)...

Instant Expert (above) shows My Chiquita and Soldierofthestorm as ones to note, just as you'd expect from their position on TS (quick note, that The Shortlist and Instant Expert might look alike, but they do work off different parameters as per the user guide), whilst Notnowlinda, Throne Hall, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go for It also have some decent win percentages under these conditions.

Since 2010 in similar races here at Hereford, only one front-runner has managed to win...

...with those racing prominently just in behind faring best of all. If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

I'd say that Soldat Forte is the most likely front-runner and the one with the target on his back for later on.

Summary

Soldat Forte is the likely front-runner and they tend to get caught here at Hereford and the fact that he hasn't raced for ten months increases that likelihood. I'm also against Silver Shade based on his lengthy lay-off and even Just Loose Change might be a bit rusty.

Sacchoandvanzetti is bang out of form and up two classes, whilst Throne Hall has yet to win at either track or trip, so I'm now left with My Chiquita, Notnowlinda, Soldierofthestorm, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It. The latter is likely to want rain to come, as he'd prefer some cut in the ground and Cabhfuilfungi has the lowest win percentage of the six, so those two are the most vulnerable here.

You could then make a case for any of the four that are left from a place perspective, but the one I'd want to be on for win purposes would be My Chiquita and I'd expect Notnowlinda to give her the most trouble.

Unfortunately the market also likes My Chiquita and has installed her as the 10/3 favourite (as of 4.35pm Monday) with Notnowlinda an 11/2 chance. Another of my final four, Big Blue Moon sits between them in the market, but Soldierofthestorm looks big at 12/1 and would be the E/W suggestion here.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/05/2024

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 2.35 Windsor
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 4.45 Curragh

In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in either of the two UK races there, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 4.05 Kempton, which is the highest-rated UK race that I'd consider covering! It's an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over a right-handed three miles on good ground...

Neon Moon won last time out, as did top-weight Quick Draw who has four wins and a place from his last seven outings. Karl Philippe and Unanswered Prayers were both placed third on their latest runs, but both are winless in seven (or more) races, as is Killer Kane.

Half of the field ran at this Class 3 level last time out, but Galahad Quest (now running for the first-time since a wind op) and Magna Sam both drop from Class 2, whilst Our Jet ran at Grade 2 and Killer Kane ran in a Class 1 handicap.

Most of these have raced in the last two to six weeks or so, but Quick Draw and Magna Sam have both been rested for three months, but that shouldn't pose any issues here.

Quick Draw (2m4½f chase) and Our Jet (2m5f chase) are both former Kempton winners, whilst Killer Kane is two from three over fences at 3m½f here. Quick Draw has also won over a similar trip elsewhere before, as have Neon Moon and Magna Sam. Karl Philippe, Galahad Quest and Unanswered Prayers have yet to score over track or trip...

...with recent relevant form suggesting our winner might well come from Quick Draw, Karl Phillipe, Our Jet and/or Galahad Quest, whilst Neon Moon has made the frame in half of his eight efforts over this trip...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that horses prepared to set the tempo of the race from the front did best of all in similar past races...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could lead you to thinking that would suit Unanswered Prayers, Our Jet, Quick Draw, Galahad Quest and Karl Philippe...

Summary

The horse ticking most boxes for me from the above data is Quick Draw, he brings the best form to the table, his trainer and jockey are both in good nick and both have good records here at Kempton. The horse has won here before and has scored at this trip. He's 3 from 4 in this grade and does like to lead when necessary. Sadly, he's the 5/2 favourite with bet365 (at 6.40pm Sunday), but that's probably about the right price.

Elsewhere I can make cases for (alphabetically) Galahad Quest, Karl Philippe, Neon Moon and Our Jet and I'd probably suggest that Our Jet and Karl Philippe would be the better pair to chase the pick home and with Our Jet currently available at 11/1, he might be a nice E/W option.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 03/05/24

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Apologies for the lack of a preview for Friday's racing. It sounds a little far-fetched, but I'm away from home right now and the dog ate my homework broke my laptop! I've managed to borrow one for today with a view to getting a replacement at the weekend, but that's not what you've come here to read, is it?

So, let's crack on. Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.50 Goodwood
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.30 Musselburgh
  • 5.10 Cheltenham
  • 7.05 Punchestown

...from which I think I'll take a look at Many A Star and the 3.15 Goodwood from the H4C report. The race is a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on heavy ground that will be softer in places...

Hat-trick seeking Bishop's Crown is the only LTO winner in the field, but Many A Star has finished 112 in his last three starts. Baldomero has been placed in each of his last two and sole mare Alcazan was third on her last run. Spanish Star, Baldomero and Dayman are the only ones without at least one win from their last five outings, having been beaten in 7, 31 and 12 respectively.

Dayman's chances of breaking that cold spell won't be helped by stepping up two classes here, though, whilst Many A Star, Live In The Moment, Bishop's Crown and Alcazan are all up one level with fast finisher Baldomero our only class dropper. Live In The Moment is also returning from 197 days off the track and runs against a field who've all had a run in the last 18 days.

Baldomero and Dayman are yet to win over this trip, but Spanish Star, Gisburn, Many A Star, Live In The Moment and Alcazan are all former course and distance winners, whilst Indian Creak has won here over 7f. That said, he is 0 from 11 over course and distance!

So we've not much heavy ground form, which is a shame as the going can be a big factor when it gets heavy. Indian Creak's record at class/track are a big worry from a win perspective but I'm generally getting more from the place stats and they're telling me to focus on the top four in the weights plus Bishop's Crown giving me runners in stalls 1 and 6-9, so I'm hoping that if there is a draw bias here, it favours those drawn highest!

Sadly, that's no the case, as it would appear that stalls 1 to 4 are the place to be, so that's advantage Gisburn from my quintet...

If we then look at how those races above were won, we find that there's not a huge pace bias at all, but those racing furthest forward have done better than those in behind...

...and this is how our field have approached their last few races...

...suggesting that Indian Creak, Many A Star, Alcazan and Live In the Moment are the likely pace-setters.

Summary

From recent form, Instant Expert, draw and pace, the two runners that keep cropping up are featured runner Many A Star (who has finished 31231 in five starts over course and distance) and low-drawn Gisburn.

Based on the odds available at 3.30pm on Thursday, I'd be inclined to take the 11/2 about Many A Star and also look at  Gisburn as an E/W option at 8/1, both with bet365.

Please note, I'm not here on Friday afternoon/evening (EFL play-offs), so that's Racing Insights signing off for the Bank Holiday weekend, hope you have a good one!

 

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/05/24

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Wow! How is it May already? We kick the new month off with Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report, which is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...

...30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Pontefract
  • 4.00 Ascot
  • 4.15 Punchestown
  • 6.35 Punchestown
  • 7.15 Brighton

Yet for all those options above, none of the UK races are any better than Class 4! We've three races with more than one way in, so we'll take one of those, the 7.30 Kempton as our featured race. Recent course specialists Tate & Crisford(s) send Swift Victory and Labalaba respectively to take each other and and half a dozen more runners on in a Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

The top two in the weights, Swift Victory and Surveyor, along with Jayyaah were winners last time out and all three had been runners-up in their penultimate outing, so all three are clearly going well, as is Sennockian, whose runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a month ago ended his 100% (3 from 3) record on the A/W and with Mr Baloo having won three of his last five, we could be in a for a decent scrap here, although seven-race maiden Ebt's Guard might feel the pressure.

All three handicap debutants (Surveyor, Jayyash and Screaming Eagle) are up in class today, whilst Labalaba will make a second handicap appearance whilst wearing a first-time tongue-tie & hood on what will be his first run since being gelded during a 223-day lay-off.

That break is the longest of all eight runners and whilst Swift Victory and Ebts Guard have been rested for 163 and 189 days respectively, the majority of the field have raced in the past month.

As for relevant past form, we have Instant Expert below, of course and we've two former course and distance winners in the shape of Swift Victory and Jayyash, whilst Mr Baloo won here over 7f three weeks ago. Surveyor won over a mile at Lingfield last time out and Sennckian has won at Newcastle, Lingfield and Wolverhampton over 1m/1m½f this year already. The bottom three on the card, Labalaba, Screaming Eagle and Ebt's Guard have yet to win at either track or trip...

There's not a lot of data to work with, especially on the A/W, where Sennockian and Mr Baloo seem better suited in this grade than they have been on turf. Labalaba makes an A/W debut here and the bottom two on the card are both 0 from 2 on the A/W, but both have made the frame on both starts...

Mind you, all those with any A/W experience have decent place records, so that last graphic isn't overly helpful and sadly that's also the case when we try to work out which stall(s) would be the best to run from, as over the last 200 or so similar races, there's very little advantage to be gained from the draw when it comes to winning races, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian, Swift Victory, Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame...

If we then look at which tactics have worked best over those races, we see that the further forward a horse raced, the better its chances were of making the frame...

...but that prominent runners won slightly more often than leaders, but there's not much in it, if truth be told, probably just a couple of wins either side. What we do know is that leader/prominent runners have a win strike rate of 16.2% (mid-div/hold-up are at 9.1%) and a place strike rate of 40.4% (mid-div/hold-up are at 28.4%) and that they've won 57.9% of the races and provided 52.2% of the placers, despite only making up 43.5% of the total number of runners, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...could be good news for Labalaba, Surveyor and Sennockian in particular.

Summary

You could very easily make a case for most of these here and whilst Labalaba could have every chance, the lay-off and an A/W debut is a worry. In fact, I think I want to focus on those with a recent run, so that takes Swifts Victory and Ebt's Guard out of the equation too. Screaming Eagle is 0 from 3 so far and has been beaten twice here at Kempton, including as a short-priced favourite last time out. Those two Kempton races haven't generated winners and they look weak in retrospect, so the Eagle won't land here for me.

This leaves me with four (Surveyor, Sennockian, Mr Baloo and Jayyash) to consider and all have run well recently with Sennockian probably the form pick ahead of Mr Baloo. Jayyash is the only course and distance winner and Mr Baloo has yet to win over the trip, although he has won here. We didn't get much from the draw stats, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian & Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame, whilst the pace data pointed us towards Surveyor and Sennockian.

There's probably very little to choose between the four of them, but if pushed, I think I'd have them as Surveyor / Jayyash / Mr Baloo / Sennockian and with the 4.55pm market looking as follows...

I think I'd have a small go at Surveyor with E/W plays on both Mr Baloo and Sennockian.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/04/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Rajindri would be of most obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 3.40 Punchestown
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Catterick

...from which I think I will have a look at the 4yr old Rajindri and the other 10 runners in the 5.00 Yarmouth, which is a Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground...

Nighteyes was the only one of these to have won last time out, but Rajindri was a runner-up and is two from four, whilst Queens Reign, Bella Bisbee and Royal Elysian all won their penultimate starts with the latter also finishing third last time out, as did Rating and Elderflower.

Top-weight Conservatonist drops down a class for his debut for Kevin Ryan, Shin Jihai drops down two classes for her second crack at a handicap and Queen's Reign makes her handicap bow, 3 classes lower than her Group 3 defeat (Solera Stakes) last time out.

Going the other direction are Bella Bisbee and Elderflower who both step up one class for their handicap debuts, whilst it's handicap debut day for Nighteyes and a second attempt for Baileys Pola Dot (after a recent wind op), Bigger than Giga and Royal Elysian.

In fact only Conservationist, Rajindri and Rating have more than one handicap run under their belts and Rating is the horse turned back out quickest, just a fortnight after finishing third of nine at Newmarket. Royal Elysian and Bella Bisbee both ran three and four weeks ago respectively, whilst Baileys Polka Dot (72 days off) is the only other filly to have raced on 2024.

Elderflower was in action just before Christmas last year, but Shin Jihai, Conservationist, Rajindri, Bigger Than Giga, Queens Reign and Nighteyes have all been absent for seven moths or more and might well need the run!

Rajindri is the only one of the field to have raced here at Yarmouth before and he's a course and distance winner, but Queen's Reign, Bigger Than Giga and Shin Jihai have also won over this trip, as shown on a rather depleted-looking Instant Expert...

...dominated as you'd expect by Rajindri from TS. That said, the field only have 52 races between them so far and just 10 wins, so I'm hoping to get a bit more help from the place data...

...which again confirms Rajindri's liking of the expected conditions, but most of them show up well and I wouldn't write any of them off just yet, but Conservationist, Rajindri, Nighteyes and Rating edge it here for me (high percentages off more than just one run!).

I didn't get as much assistance as I'd hoped for from Instant Expert, which is a shame as I'm not expecting much help from the draw stats. Surely there's not much draw bias in a straight seven furlongs here?

Hmmm, not a huge bias, but it would appear that stalls 1 to 5 might well be the place to be, based on an admittedly fairly small sample size, which could potentially be good news for Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower. If we then see how those races above were won...

...the inference is quite clear. You need to get on with things early doors here at Yarmouth with those racing prominently or leading going on to provide 57.7% of the winners and 44.2% of the placed horses from just 39.3% of the runners with leaders winning far more than their fair share, so if any of Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower are front-runners, they could be expected to go well.

Now, we never who might lead, but by looking at how horses have raced in the past, we can sometimes make a judgment call as to how a race might pan out, so let's look at this field's most recent efforts...

...where Conservationist, Nighteyes, Rating and Queen's Reign would be the ones to take from here and this quartet will emerge from stalls 11, 1, 9 and 2 respectively.

Summary

If we start with recent form, then Nighteyes, Rajindri, Queens Reign, Bella Bisbee, Royal Elysian, Rating and Elderflower all merit a second look and it was Conservationist, Rajindri, Nighteyes and Rating who caught my eye most from Instant Expert.

We then moved to the draw and ace stats and from past similar races, stalls 1 to 5 (Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower) were deemed the best places to be drawn for a race that suits leaders and prominent runners. From the field's last few races, Conservationist, Nighteyes, Rating and Queen's Reign seem most likely to be setting the tempo.

It's very rare that a horse ticks all the analysis boxes for me, but one horse keeps popping up here and that's Nighteyes. I do have some concerns about her nine-month layoff, but having looked at the market at 5.45pm on Monday...

...I'd be happy with 10/1 as an E/W option.

Rating and Rajindri also ticked several boxes and I suspect they'll both go well and this could easily be the day that Rating finally gets off the mark after eight defeats, She has been close of late, finishing 233 in her last three outings and should come on for having had a run earlier this month. Rajindri has conditions to suit here, too and should be in the mix if race-ready after a break.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.00 Ayr
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 7.39 Windsor
  • 7.50 Naas
  • 9.00 Wolverhampton

If truth be told, none of the three UK races above appeal to me for one reason or another (never bet in a race that doesn't interest you!), so I'm going to look at the highest-rated/most valuable UK race of the day, the 6.39 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on soft ground...

Early indications/thoughts are that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) top-weight Asgard's Captain, fast-finisher Fast Steps and sole LTO winner Mythical Guest, but let's have a closer look to see what we can find.

Mythical Guest was indeed the only one these nine runners to win last time out, but Fast Steps and First Officer were both runners-up and Asgard's Captain has won three of his last four before going down by four lengths at Lingfield on Good Friday. On the other hand, Enthrallment, Fast Steps and Grey Fox are on losing runs, having been beaten in their last 12, 7 and 8 races respectively.

Fast Steps' and Grey Fox's hopes of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by a step up in class here and LTO winner Mythical Guest is also up from Class 5, but Asgard's Captain, The Whipmaster and First officer all step down a level. Only four of the field have raced in the past month, as Enthrallment, Silver Gunn, First Officer, The Whipmaster and Grey Fox return from respective breaks of 101, 144, 178, 178 and 228 days.

Enthrallment has moved yards during his layoff and is the only one of the nine without a win at a similar trip to this one and of the five to have raced here at Windsor before, only Mythical Guest has failed to win, as The Whipmaster scored here over 1m3½f last June and Silver Gunn, Fast Steps & Grey Fox are all former course and distance winners. This info is shown on Instant Expert, along with details of three former soft ground winners...

...there's no real standout candidate there, but Silver Gunn's numbers are pretty decent. I should refer to Asgard's Captain now being some 34lbs higher than his last win, too. He is indeed running off 89 which is 34lbs higher than the 49 he was rated when winning at Musselburgh in August 2023. Since then, he had a twenty-week break before racing solely on the A/W this year finishing 1521118 winning off marks of 63, 68, 73 and 79, so he's 'only' 4lbs higher than his last actual win and could be weighted nicely if bringing his A/W game to the Turf.

Our draw analyser suggests that those drawn lowest here might be at a disadvantage from a win perspective...

...but have as good a chance of any of making the frame and if we look at how those 40-odd races were won, we find that those prepared to set the pace have been the most successful...

...and if recent races are anything to go by...

...Asgard's Captain could very well be afforded an easy early lead.

Summary

The draw/pace stats suggest a high draw coupled with a willingness to lead could be the perfect storm here with 6 high drawn leaders from 14 making the frame with 4 (28.57%) going on to win...

Asgard's Captain is drawn highest of all and tops the pace chart, he has won 6 of his last 10, 5 of his last 8 and 3 of his last 4 and was a winner on his last outing in this grade, so it's Asgard's Captain at 7/2 (Sunday 5pm) for me here.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Leicester
  • 2.37 Leicester
  • 3.20 Haydock
  • 3.27 Navan
  • 3.35 Sandown
  • 6.10 Doncaster

The three Sandown races above are decent quality, but have too many runners for my liking, but there are still a couple of Class 2 handicaps to choose from and at the risk of not Looking for Lynda in the 5.50 Ripon, I've opted for the 2.05 Leicester, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile (plus fifty-three yards) on soft ground that will be heavy in places...

None of the nine managed to win last time out, but Thunder Roar was a half-length runner-up at Doncaster for his fifth successive top-three finish (inc two wins). Bottom weight Big Bear Hug was third for the second race in a row and she has a win and three places from her last five. Dashing Roger is two from four, Look Back Smiling is two from three and Magic Memories was a winner three starts ago.

Big Bear Hug's excellent recent form has all been at Class 5 and she's up three classes here, which will make life much tougher, as will the two-class rise for Selwan who runs for Ian Williams for the first time today. Al Mubhir won this race last year and now steps down in class to defend his crown off a mark 7lbs higher than last year in his first outing since being gelded.

Four of this field raced against each other to varying shades of defeat a week ago and two last raced five weeks ago. Selwan had had a two-month rest, but Al Mubhir hasn't been seen f0r over twenty weeks. Miss Cantik makes a UK debut today some 154 days since finishing 11th of 18 in 1m2f Listed contest at Fontainebleau. Prior to that run she was two from two over a mile and was a Listed class runner-up over 1m1f at Longchamp.

Al Mubhir's not the only course and distance winner in the field though, as Big Bear Hug also acheived the feat almost a year ago, albeit in a Class 6 handicap off a mark some 19lbs lower than today! Raadobarg, Miss Cantik (who wears a hood for the first time today), Look Back Smiling and Magic Memories have all also scored at this trip, whilst Raadobarg and Look Back Smiling have also both won on this track over 7f...

Dashing Roger has struggled to win races over the last couple of years, even if he did win three and four starts ago. Prior to those two wins, he hadn't won any of eleven since August 2021, so whilst he's two from four, he's also two from fifteen! Thunder Roar will be suited by the soft ground and he's also a former heavy ground winner, as is Al Mubhir. Al Mubhir has struggled to win Class 2 races despite winning this one a year ago and Look Back Smiling's win record over today trip is pretty poor at just 1 win from 8 and the place stats show that he only made the frame in 2 of the 7 defeats...

...stats that put Dashing Roger out of my consideration for now. Al Mubhir won this last year, of course, but his number don't really suggest a repeat performance and the takeaway from this place data would be Thunder Roar, who finds himself drawn out in stall eight with only Raadobarg outside him, which is a bit of a worry because last year's race was won from stall 1 and our draw analyser suggests that stalls 1 to 5 are the place to be here...

...with those 91 races being dominated by horses who like to lead...

...so much so that the running style/pace of the race seems more important the draw today, as suggested by our pace/draw heat map...

We can then look at how our field have approached their last few races...

...and from this, I suspect that Al Mubhir and Dashing Roger will be the ones most likely to take the race on.

Summary

Mid to high-drawn front runners are supposedly the ones to back here and last year's winner Al Mubhir fits that bill nicely. He's also a fairly short favourite for such a competitive race, but I just don't get it/him today. I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself, but he's 7lbs higher than year and hasn't won since and with this being a stronger renewal, I just can't back him at these (Friday 5.15pm) odds...

...and I think Thunder Roar offers me more value at 9/2, whilst Look Back Smiling seems like a decent E/W prospect at 8/1.

Racing Insights, Friday 26/04/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just one qualifier, but your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.23 Doncaster
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.40 Perth
  • 3.25 Cork
  • 5.35 Cork
  • 5.40 Chepstow

...with the best (on paper, at least!) of these being the 2.25 Sandown, a 7-runner, Group 3 Flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good ground and here's how they line up...

As you'd hope of a race of this standard, it looks very competitive and the bookies think (at 2pm Thursday) that it will be a tight 4-way affair here and I'm initially inclined to agree...

...my job, I assume, is to try and find which of the four ticks most boxes.

Checkandchallenge and Tasman Bay both won last time out, but the latter was winning for the first time after eight defeats and 'only' won a Class 3 handicap, so this is much tougher. The 'form' horse here is Okeechobee who has yet to finish outside of the first two home and was a Listed class runner-up last time out. Desert Hero has two wins and an LTO third place in the St Leger from his last three starts and all seven have won at least one of their last five.

Tasman Bay is the only one to have raced at Class 1 last time and at 19 days off, he's the quickest back onto the track. Okeechobee raced 25 days ago, but the others haven't been seen for 174 to 344 days, during which time Artistic Star, Desert Hero and Flying Honours were all gelded (this is Okeechobee's second run after the same op). Israr was a very good second of eight in an Ascot group 3 race on his last UK run back in October and now wears blinkers for the first time and if they go at a dawdle today, that might help Desert Hero late on, as he's denoted as a fast finisher.

Desert Hero is, however, the only one in the field yet to win at this trip although he has won over 1m1f. Two of the seven have won here at Sandown previously; Artistic Star won a Class 2 Novice race over course and distance almost a year ago, whilst Flying Honours scored over a much shorter 7f here in a Class 4 Novice contest back in July 2022. Israr, Okeechobee and Tasman Bay are yet to step foot on this track, as seen on Instant Expert...

...which shows the afore-mentioned Flying Honours in a really good light and looks best suited of the four market leaders. That said, Okeechobee has only one turf run to his name so far and that was a very comfortable Class 2 handicap success over today's trip.

The draw stats from previous similar races here at Sandown suggest that those drawn highest might fare best...

...but I am cautious about the effect of the draw over 1m2f with a small field, but if it bears true, Israr is the biggest beneficiary of the four principals here, although they occupy stalls 2, 4 and 5 so they're hardly spread out. Pace, however, is a different matter entirely and of the four expected to be in the mix, Okeechobee looks the most likely to set the pace, Flying Honours tends to run in mid-division with Desert Hero and Israr further back...

...although Desert Hero did lead four starts ago in what turned out to be his worst race to date, so I doubt he'll be up front here! If we look at back at those races we took the draw stats from, we're informed that leaders and especially prominent stalkers are the ones to be with...

...which probably gives a slight advantage to Okeechobee.

Summary

The market and I both think this is a four-horse race and of the four tightly grouped at the head of the market, I think I like Okeechobee best of the four, despite his inexperience on grass. He's had a recent run unlike the other three, brings the best set of results to the table and should be well suited by the pace of the race.

There's not much to choose between the other three, but if pushed to put them in order, I'd probably go Okeechobee / Israr / Desert Hero / Flying Honours, but that's not a tip!

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/04/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 5.10 Huntingdon
  • 5.40 Beverley
  • 6.52 Wexford
  • 9.00 Chelmsford

You can tell the nights are getting longer when we've got races at 9pm and that race is probably the best of the free races for me to cover, so let's head off to Essex for that 9.00 Chelmsford contest, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Fearless Bay is our sole LTO winner, but that run/win was 18 months ago, so I'm not it's a relevant form pointer. Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing were all third recently and all three come here in decent form; Isle of Sark has made the frame in six of his last seven despite not winning, Cavalluccio is 31621233 in his last eight and Ludo's Landing has been third in each of his last two outings.

As stated above, Fearless Bay hasn't been seen since winning at Southwell in October 2022 and both Wonder Starelzaam and Obsidian Knight have been off the track for over eight months, whilst the other seven runners here have all raced in the last two to four weeks.

As well as possibly being rusty, Wonder Starelzaam won't be helped by a step up in class and Wyvern and Boasty also step up a level here, but Bass Player is down one grade for this one.

Isle of Sark, Bass Player, Wyvern and Ludo's Landing have yet to win over this trip, whilst Fearless Bay, Cavalluccio and Boasty have all won over course and distance in the past, but four of this field have never been to Chelmsford before, as shown below on the Instant Expert feature...

...which seems to suggest a big run is coming from Fearless Bay and had this not been a comeback run, I'd have been all over those numbers, but the lay-off is a big concern for me. Visibility and Boasty's joint return of 8 wins from 88 standard going races makes them look vulnerable here and added to a 1 from 17 record at Class 4, Visibility joins Fearless Bay as a horse I just can't back here and this decision looks vindicated by his two-year place stats (also from Instant Expert)...

...from which, I'd probably only want to focus on the following...

...giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 10, so a wide spread for a race that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in stalls 1-3 for win purposes and those in 1-7 for the places...

...BUT I'm of the opinion that over a trip beyond a mile here at Chelmsford that it's pace that wins the race and that doesn't always mean how fast they go. I'm referring to the whole pace of the race, the tactics/running styles used etc and if we look back over those races from the draw analysis above, we see the usual Chelmsford ace bias in operation...

Irrespective of draw here, you've really got to be up with a pace to give yourself the best chance of winning and based in the field's last few runs...

...Boasty and Ludo's Landing might be the ones to set the fractions.

Summary

Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing are the ones bringing the best recent form to the table and all three emerged unscathed from Instant Expert along with Bass Player, Wyvern and Boasty. Wyvern and Boasty seem to have the best draw with the latter fitting the pace profile best of all.

For me, it's Cavalluccio's race to win/lose, he's the form horse and isn't badly treated on pace/draw.

As for the others mentioned here, Wyvern is massively up in trip, bang out of form and will have too much work to do from the back, so he's out. Bass player makes little appeal other than his two-year place record and has run poorly in his last two, so he's also out. This leaves us with Isle of Sark, Ludo's Landing and Boasty. Boasty's certainly not my idea of a winner, Isle of Sark always finds one (or two) too good for him and his mark is rising without winning and Ludo's Landing is the weaker of the three form horses.

The Wednesday 4pm market looked like this with only Bet365 open...

11/4 looks a bit mean about Cavalluccio and I was rather hoping for something closer to 4/1, so I might keep my powder dry there. Isle of Sark is no price at 7/2 in my book for a horse that doesn't win and Ludo's Landing isn't backable from an E/W perspective either. I do however agree with the bookie's 1-2-3 and if I did have a bet here, it'd just be a small E/W play on Boasty to see if he can turn his front-running into a place.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Perth
  • 4.17 Catterick
  • 5.15 Taunton
  • 5.20 Bellewstown
  • 5.25 Catterick
  • 5.50 Taunton

My personal preferred settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have yielded the following runners for me to consider...

Whilst the logical/preferred step for me is to marry up the daily feature with the the free race list, that would mean looking at Jersey Gem and the 5.15 Taunton, but 15-runner, Class 5, mares' handicaps aren't really my bag, but here are a few higher-rated races on that card, including a stayers' handicap from the list of free races aka the 5.50 Taunton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m 2f 57yds on good ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Shortcross Storm was a runner-up whilst Bbold, Airtothethrone and Jessie Lightfoot all finished third. Conversely, Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemen's Tipple and Kingsmill Gin were all pulled up on their most recent efforts, but Head and Heart and Kingsmill Gin did both won four races ago. Jessie Lightfoot and Shortcross Storm both won five races back, but the other five runners are winless in at least seven outings.

All four runners who were pulled up last time out (Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemens Tipple and Kingsmill Gin) are up a class today with Head and Heart sporting first-time blinkers. Airtothethrone wears cheekpieces for the first time and Jessie Lightfoot makes a second yard debut for Henry Oliver after three runs for Ewan Williams.

All nine have had at least one run in the last two months and aside from Bbold's appearance at Wincanton on Sunday, they've all had at least 17 days rest. Only Unblinking and Flemen's Tipple have yet to score over a similar trip to this one and two of the field have won here at Taunton already; Airtothethrone landed a three-mile handicap chase here in early December 2022, whilst one of Kingsmill Gin's two career wins (from 24 attempts!) was over this course and distance, albeit 13 races ago back December 2021!

Instant Expert tells me that Shortcross Storm has lost 13 of 15 good ground chases and that he's 0 from 7 at Class 4, whilst Airtothethrone and Kingsmill Gin both have half a dozen defeats to their names at this grade...

Kingsmill Gin has also struggled to win over similar trips to this one, despite that distant course and distance success mentioned earlier. The above doesn't necessarily mean that Airtothethrone, Kingsmill Gin and Shortcross Storm can't win here, who knows they might have just been unlucky? The place stats might tell us a bit more...

That's a better looking graphic if nothing else, but I've still reservations over Kingsmill Gin (going) and Shortcross Storm (class), but the others all seem to be well suited to at least making the frame and if you can make the frame, you've a 1 in 3 chance of winning! At this point, I'd normally refer to the pace stats to help me narrow the field down, but good ground staying chases here at Taunton don't seem to have that much of a pace bias...

Mid-division runners have an inexplicably poor return, but when all other running styles ahead of or behind mid-division have done pretty well, I have to say that it looks like a coincidental anomaly rather than a trend.

And whilst we don't expect the pace of the race to be the deciding factor here, this is how we think they might lead out, if they run how they've raced in their last few contests...

Summary

When the place stats/data doesn't give you much help in a NH handicap, you need to go back to what you know (form and Instant Expert past data) and what you think/feel ie your gut opinion. For me, this leads me back to Airtothethrone (placed in his last two and now back down to his last winning mark) and Jessie Lightfoot (3343 in her last four starts, back with her old yard and reunited with the last jockey to win on her) as my two against the field.

I wrote this piece early (it's now 2.25pm!) on Tuesday, as I've a function to attend to later and as such, no odds were available. I did prefer Airtothethrone slightly more than Jessie Lightfoot, but the market will dictate how/if I place any bets here. A tissue made up of the average of the forecast prices from Oddschecker, Timeform and Racing Post looked like this...

Jessie Lightfoot 4/1
Airtothethrone 9/2
Kingsmill Gin 7.33/1
Bbold 15/2
Flemen's Tipple 8.33/1
Unblinking 10.17/1
Shortcross Storm 11.17/1
Grove Road 11.33/1
Head And Heart 11.33/1

...and if that is anywhere near accurate, then I'd also have an interest in both Shortcross Storm and Head And Heart as E/W possibles. The former receives weight all round and might well run himself into a place by nicking a decent early soft lead. The latter is a bit of an enigma, she hasn't completed any of her last three (RO, PU, PU), but finished 13531 in her previous five. She's now only 2lbs higher than her last win and if in the mood, could go well. If only we knew and if only it'd rain a little for her!