Racing Insights, Monday 06/05/2024
The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 1.35 Down Royal
- 2.35 Windsor
- 3.20 Down Royal
- 3.35 Curragh
- 3.50 Warwick
- 4.45 Curragh
In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in either of the two UK races there, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 4.05 Kempton, which is the highest-rated UK race that I'd consider covering! It's an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over a right-handed three miles on good ground...
Neon Moon won last time out, as did top-weight Quick Draw who has four wins and a place from his last seven outings. Karl Philippe and Unanswered Prayers were both placed third on their latest runs, but both are winless in seven (or more) races, as is Killer Kane.
Half of the field ran at this Class 3 level last time out, but Galahad Quest (now running for the first-time since a wind op) and Magna Sam both drop from Class 2, whilst Our Jet ran at Grade 2 and Killer Kane ran in a Class 1 handicap.
Most of these have raced in the last two to six weeks or so, but Quick Draw and Magna Sam have both been rested for three months, but that shouldn't pose any issues here.
Quick Draw (2m4½f chase) and Our Jet (2m5f chase) are both former Kempton winners, whilst Killer Kane is two from three over fences at 3m½f here. Quick Draw has also won over a similar trip elsewhere before, as have Neon Moon and Magna Sam. Karl Philippe, Galahad Quest and Unanswered Prayers have yet to score over track or trip...
...with recent relevant form suggesting our winner might well come from Quick Draw, Karl Phillipe, Our Jet and/or Galahad Quest, whilst Neon Moon has made the frame in half of his eight efforts over this trip...
Our Pace Analyser suggests that horses prepared to set the tempo of the race from the front did best of all in similar past races...
...which based on the field's most recent efforts could lead you to thinking that would suit Unanswered Prayers, Our Jet, Quick Draw, Galahad Quest and Karl Philippe...
Summary
The horse ticking most boxes for me from the above data is Quick Draw, he brings the best form to the table, his trainer and jockey are both in good nick and both have good records here at Kempton. The horse has won here before and has scored at this trip. He's 3 from 4 in this grade and does like to lead when necessary. Sadly, he's the 5/2 favourite with bet365 (at 6.40pm Sunday), but that's probably about the right price.
Elsewhere I can make cases for (alphabetically) Galahad Quest, Karl Philippe, Neon Moon and Our Jet and I'd probably suggest that Our Jet and Karl Philippe would be the better pair to chase the pick home and with Our Jet currently available at 11/1, he might be a nice E/W option.
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