Racing Insights, Thursday 09/05/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

• 1.50 Huntingdon
• 3.05 Chester
• 3.18 Brighton
• 6.40 Tipperary
• 7.10 Tipperary
• 9.00 Chelmsford

I fancy looking at some Flat/AW action today, but the Chester race above only has five runners and the Brighton race looks a poor quality affair full of inexperienced runners, so let's head to Essex for some late evening all-weather action and the 9.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

My initial thoughts were that this might well end up being a battle between stablemates Conquest of Power and Heerathetrack, who'll make the 250-mile round trip from Mark Usher's yard in Lambourn along with Q Twenty Boy who goes in the 6.30 race.

Conquest of Power is one of two (Thomas Equinas in the other) LTO winners in the field and Thomas Equinas has won three of his last four. Annie Law won her penultimate race, as did Poetic Jack, whilst Heerathetrack and Alexander James were both in the frame last time out. The latter, however, joins Golden Passport as having no win in six, having been beaten in 14 races on the bounce; Golden Passport has lost ten in a row.

He drops in class today (as does Harry The Haggler) and hasn't raced for two months, but that break won't be the reason he doesn't win here today, although the lay-offs for Poetic Jack (154 days), Annie Law (176 days) and Thomas Equinas (217 days) might be an issue here.

Alexander James is the only runner without a win at this trip and all runners here bar him, Golden Passport, Annie Law and Harry The Haggler are course and distance winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which has Thomas Equinas as the eyecatcher with a decent set of numbers and he's only 4lbs higher than his last win, but it has been seven months since that run/win here over course and distance. Conquest of Power's record at Class 6 isn't great at 1 from 8, but the win was last time out and he has already won at both Class 4 and Class 5. His record here doesn't look good either, but I believe that he has been a regular placer; we'll check that in a moment!

Alexander James looks particularly vulnerable here on his 14-race losing streak and it's probably fair to assume that he'll join Golden Passport in being excluded from my thoughts, even if the following place data shows him in a better light...

...which it doesn't to be honest. Just 4 places from 17 on standard going simply isn't enough. On a brighter note, my thoughts about Conquest of Power being a regular placer were spot on and Harry the Haggler also looks like an E/W or place prospect with Thomas Equinas still leading the way.

Thomas Equinas has been drawn plumb centre of the stalls with Heerathetrack taking stall 1 and King of Ithaca out in box nine, but if we look back at similar races since the start of 2020, our draw analyser suggests that stall position wouldn't be a significant factor in a horse's chances of winning this race...

...although the lower the draw, the slightly better the chance (+13% low over high) of making the frame, which is good news for Heerathetrack, who normally tends to race in the middle of the pack and has done so in each of his last four outings...

...with Golden Passport looking the likely back marker. There's no out and out front runner in this field, although Harry The Haggler did set the pace two starts ago and Poetic Jack lad for 6 of the 7 furlongs last time out, but wilted away to 8th of 9 and a 7-length defeat, so I wouldn't expect similar tactics from him. To be honest, I wouldn't be too surprised if Conquest of Power and course specialist Thomas Equinas didn't take it on between them.

Summary

Chelmsford really suits those willing to set the tempo of the race and both Conquest of Power and Thomas Equinas look capable of doing this and both arrive here on the back of a winning run last time out, albeit seven months ago in Thomas' case. His last three runs here have seen him win over course and distance twice either side of a win over a mile, so he's clearly the one to beat in this track when fit, but the lack of a run just tips the balance back towards Conquest of Power for me.

Conquest of Power would be my idea of a winner here, but I can see Thomas Equinas also making the frame. I'm not as sold on Heerathetrack as I thought I might be, but he still stands a decent chance of making the frame, as does Harry The Haggler.

The early (3.20pm Wednesday) bet365 market agrees with me about Conquest of Power (sadly)...

...but it does have Thomas Equinas as borderline E/W territory, depending on your personal odds cut-off point for E/W bets. I know Alexander James ran pretty well when finishing third over course and distance last time out, but hold-up horses have a poor record here and he has lost his last fourteen races, making the frame just twice. I might be missing something, but he wouldn't anywhere near second favourite in my book; I'd probably only have Annie Law, Golden Passport and Poetic Jack behind him.

We'll see! 😉

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24