Tag Archive for: Seamie Heffernan

Dallas Star shocks Ballysax rivals with 50-1 strike

Dallas Star caused a 50-1 upset in the P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown.

The Amo Racing-owned winner finished nine lengths behind Charlie Appleby’s Derby candidate Arabian Crown in a Group Three at Newmarket in the autumn when trained by Dominic French Davis.

Switched to Adrian Murray over the winter, the Cloth Of Stars colt was sent into an early lead under Seamie Heffernan but had to battle back after Deepone struck the front.

Dallas Star handled the testing ground well, regaining the initiative in the straight to gallop home three lengths clear of Aidan O’Brien’s The Euphrates, whose stablemate and odds-on favourite Illinois was only third.

“We were on a mission today to see how we were going or where we were going to go next,” said Murray.

“He kept finding for him. Twice during the race I thought he was done for and he kept coming back.

“I never thought I’d see the day where we would be competing in the same race as Aidan O’Brien.

“I was so near to packing it in a few years ago and it’s amazing the way things can turn around. The horses are very healthy and that is a big thing.

“He’ll be entered in all the big races now I suppose and we’ll see where we go. I’ll have to chat to Kia (Joorabchian, owner) and Robson (Aguiar, part of the Amo team) and see where they want to go.

“He came to us over the winter.”



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Opera Singer ‘more unlikely than likely’ to make Newmarket

Aidan O’Brien has cast serious doubt on leading Classic contender Opera Singer’s participation in the Qipco 1000 Guineas.

The daughter of Justify announced herself as a major player for the first fillies’ Classic of the campaign when following up a wide-margin victory in a Curragh Group Three with a devastating display at ParisLongchamp in the Prix Marcel Boussac, storming to a five-length success.

However, speaking at the Curragh on Monday, the master of Ballydoyle explained she may debut for the season on home soil rather than Newmarket having met with a setback.

“Opera Singer is a little bit behind them (the colts) and might not make the English Guineas,” he told Racing TV.

“She had a little setback and had to have two weeks easy. When you have two weeks easy, it is just difficult enough to get to the English Guineas.

“It’s possible but more unlikely than likely and she could end up starting here in the Curragh rather than starting in England. We won’t force her, she’s a beautiful big filly and everyone’s very happy with her.

“She had a couple of easy weeks and when that happens you have to be wary of it.”

City Of Troy is the heavy favourite for the Qipco 2000 Guineas
City Of Troy is the heavy favourite for the Qipco 2000 Guineas (Tim Goode for the Jockey Club/PA)

In contrast, it appears all systems go for the odds-on Qipco 2000 Guineas favourite City Of Troy who has been pleasing his handler in the early days of his three-year-old season.

O’Brien continued: “Everything has gone very well with him. He’s matured lovely, he’s moving well, he’s going through all his work very well – he’s floating through the work, that’s what he’s doing.

“Even though our ground is bad, he’s finding it very easy, so he’s very exciting. It’s day by day at the moment but we couldn’t be happier with him at the moment.”

Although City Of Troy often left people astonished with the manner of his victories during his flawless two-year-old campaign, it was dual-Derby hero Auguste Rodin who was undoubtedly Ballydoyle’s top performer in 2023.

He signed off his Classic season with a scintillating success at the Breeders’ Cup in Santa Anita and is close to his eagerly-awaited return, where the son of Deep Impact will seek further international riches in the Dubai Sheema Classic.

“He’ll work this week and then he’ll go off to Dubai,” said O’Brien.

“He’s in a lovely place. He was in Dundalk a few weeks ago and everything went lovely, so we couldn’t be happier with him and we’re looking forward to it.

“It’s a big week for him before he travels so hopefully everything goes well.”

Trainer Aidan O’Brien with Seamie Heffernan
Trainer Aidan O’Brien with Seamie Heffernan (Brian Lawless/PA)

O’Brien has also left the door open for Seamie Heffernan after the Ballydoyle stalwart left his full-time role with the powerhouse operation.

The 51-year-old has been part of the Ballydoyle furniture for nearly 30 years and a vital member of O’Brien’s team, winning the Derby aboard Anthony Van Dyk in 2019 and partnering the winner of the Irish equivalent on four occasions for his long-time boss.

But Heffernan has revealed he has chosen to ride freelance this season, with O’Brien fully understanding of the decision.

He said: “I was reading in the papers that Seamus has been riding for us for 25 to 30 years and at the start of every year I never know when Seamus is coming back.

“Obviously himself and Rochelle had a chat and he was always with us six mornings a week and they obviously felt he would like to give the outside world a bit of a chance.

“There are a lot of other people he has ridden for and lots of other people he will now be able to ride for and we totally appreciate it and understand that and respect it in every way. I think Seamus is 51 or 52 now and if he is going to do it now is the time to do it and there will be plenty of times he can fall in for us – he’s got plenty of experience and is a great fella.

“I totally understand it 100 per cent and everyone needs to do what they think is right. There is no point riding for us every day and their heart being somewhere else or thinking he should be somewhere else.

“He has to try things and I definitely couldn’t say it will be the wrong thing. Seamus will ride a lot of good horses, for different people in good races, he has plenty of experience and hopefully there will be plenty of times he will ride for us again as well.”



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Jockey Profiles: Ireland, Flat

This is the fourth in my series of articles on jockeys, and this time I am examining the performance of some riders in Ireland, writes Dave Renham.

As with the previous three articles I am analysing the last eight full years of flat racing (2015-2022) but focusing solely on Irish results. For the majority of the number crunching I will be using the Geegeez Query Tool, but I will also use the Profiler tool amongst other things. In all the tables the profits/losses quoted will be to Industry SP, but I will share Betfair SP where appropriate.

The first point to make is that you should not blindly compare Irish jockey strike rates with their UK counterparts. This is because the average field size in Ireland is bigger than it is in the UK. In the past eight seasons, the average number of runners in a UK flat race stands at 9.2; in Ireland this jumps markedly to 11.7. If we compare by year we see that the gap in the last couple of years has increased further:

 

 

Hence strike rates for jockeys racing in Ireland are going to be lower than for jockeys racing in the UK. If we want to compare jockeys across the Irish Sea against each other, then the PRB figure (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) is a better barometer to use.

 

Jockey Performance in All Races

Let us first look at all jockeys that have ridden at least 400 times in the past eight seasons in Ireland. I have included all of them, rather than hand pick those with the highest strike rates. The reason for this is that I do not know that much about some Irish jockeys so I am keen to absorb all the stats I can:

 

 

As we can see there are no jockeys in profit to SP with many heavily in the minus.

Anyone who read my Ryan Moore article will be familiar with his overall stats. Moore is comfortably ahead of the rest with a crazy strike rate, thanks as we know in the main to his partnership with trainer Aidan O’Brien. The next best strike rate is owned by Colin Keane, on 14.83%, which is less than half the figure of Moore! Speaking of Keane, let us dig a little further into his stats:

Colin Keane

Keane is stable jockey to Ger Lyons, a relationship that began in 2014. Keane has been Champion Jockey in Ireland in four of the last six seasons (2017, 2020, 2021, 2022), and in 2021 he had his highest number of wins in a season with 156. Let us look at his record with different trainers (minimum 50 rides), ordered by number of runs:

 

 

There are some strong PRB figures here, with Keane securing a PRB of 0.60 or better with eight different trainers. Naturally, the most rides have been for Lyons, but the O’Callaghan combination completely stands out. In 2022, they teamed up 18 times and nine of those horses ended up in the winner’s enclosure. They have partnered up at 14 different Irish courses and had winners at ten of them! Three of the courses where they have not had a winner have been at courses where Keane has ridden for O’Callaghan just once.

Two trainers perhaps to avoid are Martin and Mc Court – both have relatively poor figures in comparison to the average, though are still at least 50% of rivals beaten together.

For Ger Lyons, Keane is close to one win in five which is excellent. Here is a graph of their trainer/jockey combo in terms of yearly strike rate – looking at both win strike rate and each way strike rate:

 

 

There were slight dips in 2018 and 2022, but generally quite consistent figures. It should be noted that 2023 started very poorly, so this is something we need to keep our eye on. Things have improved in June and hopefully the pairing are back to normal service resumed now.

Here are three of the most potent Keane/Lyons stats:

  1. 2yo horses have done extremely well with 177 wins from 759 runners (SR 23.3%). To SP, returns have shown a small 3p in the £ loss. To BSP though a profit of £65.91 would have been made equating to returns of over 8p in the £.
  2. Clear favourites have won 233 races from 572 races (SR 40.7%) for a BSP profit of £49.66 (ROI +8.7%).
  3. Horses making their debut have an outstanding record. Of the 333 debutants, 71 have won (SR 21.3%) for a BSP profit of £158.33 (ROI +47.6%). Profits to SP were smaller but still returned just under 20p in the £.

Moving back to looking at Keane’s overall record again, it is time to consider some of his run style data. Geegeez members will know I am a big fan of looking at favourite run style data as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding ‘good horses at the front, bad ones at the back’. Here are the relative win strike rates for Keane horses that have started as the market leader in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

No surprises here with front running favourites doing clearly best. This is an even stronger bias than we normally see with hold up favourites scoring less than one win in every four. Front runners, meanwhile, would have secured a profit of around 24p in the £ to SP assuming our crystal ball could have accurately predicted that they would all go forward as well as being favourite. This profit would jump to 30p in the £ if backing them all to BSP.

 

Seamie Heffernan

Heffernan has some interesting run style stats when we focus on shorter distance races of 5f to 7f. Below are his strike rates both from a win and each way perspective:

 

 

As can be seen, Heffernan’s record on front runners from both a win and placed viewpoint is top notch. The figures for hold up horses in these shorter distance races are very weak – fewer than one in twenty winning, fewer than one in eight placing.

Heffernan has ridden 103 front runners in these 5-7f races for trainer Aidan O’Brien and has won on 38 of them (SR 36.9%). For the same trainer over the same distance spread, we see hold up horses claiming just 12 wins from 153 (SR 7.8%). Of the 153, 77 came from the top three in the betting! Now I appreciate I probably have the largest and noisiest ‘drum’ when it comes to run style stats in the whole of the racing world but when the numbers look like this, I just have to make you aware.

 

Horses from top three in the betting, by jockey

As the main table indicated, most jockeys have modest profit records at best when looking at their rides as a whole. Let’s look at how they have performed in terms of when they are riding a fancied runner – specifically, a horse in the top three in the betting. Here are the jockeys who have secured the best strike rates (minimum 100 runners):

 

 

Moore tops the list once more; Keane is in 5th, while three jockeys have managed to secure a profit to SP, namely Shane B Kelly, Ben Coen and Connor King. The average A/E figure for all Irish riders on horses from the top three in the betting is 0.88, so a few of them are nicely above this figure.

A look now at the jockeys with the lowest strike rates (below 16%) with the same group of fancied horses:

 

 

These jockeys are probably ones to be wary of even if riding a horse that heads, or is near the head of, the market. They have produced some hefty losses as a group.

 

Jockeys on front running favourites

Earlier we saw that Colin Keane had an excellent record on favourites that took the lead early. Here are the jockeys with the highest strike rates with such runners, of which Keane is one of them:

 

 

Absolutely exceptional figures for Moore; in the previous article on Ryan I noted his excellent record on front running favourites when combining UK and Irish stats. To that we can now add that his Irish front running win stats are 15% higher than his UK ones. I also mentioned in that piece that Moore does not go to the front early as often as he should – this cements my feeling for time immemorial. Of course, many of Aidan O’Brien’s horses are steadily away which makes getting to the front more difficult.

 

Jockey Performance, by Racecourse

For this section I decided I would look for any big positives or negatives at the Irish courses as regards to jockeys. Here are my findings:

Ballinrobe – Shane Foley has the highest strike rate at the course (19.3%) thanks to 11 wins from 57; Rory Cleary is 0 from 41. To be fair Cleary has not had many good chances at the course;

Bellewstown – Declan McDonogh has a 20% win rate at the course (11 from 55) and provided a BSP profit of £32.79 (ROI +59.6%); he has a decent placed record too. Dylan Browne McMonagle has managed just two successes from 52 including just one from 22 with horses 7/1 or shorter;

Cork – Billy Lee has ridden 45 winners at the track in the past eight seasons (Colin Keane also has won 45) from 245 rides. He has secured strike rates above 20% at Cork in three of the past five seasons, and in six of the eight seasons you would have made a profit backing his runners to BSP. When teaming up with trainer Paddy Twomey, Lee has ridden 13 winners from just 33 runners which equates to a strike rate of 39.4%.

Curragh – Ryan Moore has a good record here with 109 winners from 393 rides (SR 27.7%). To BSP his mounts have virtually broken even. His record in Group 3 contests is eye catching – 29 wins from 59 (SR 49.2%) for a BSP profit of £48.07 (ROI +81.5%). Contrast Moore with the Curragh stats for Connor Hoban who has managed just two wins from 197 runners, though again opportunity is obviously not created equally for the two riders.

Dundalk – the course that stages by far the most Irish racing due to it being an all-weather track. Colin Keane seems to ride the track as well as any – he has had 1210 rides with 198 successes (SR 16.4%). A BSP profit of £81.56 (ROI +6.7%) would have been achieved backing all his rides blind. His record is quite consistent when analysing the data by year. Keane’s strike rate exceeds 20% when riding for his boss Ger Lyons and when riding for Noel Meade.

Fairyhouse – Rory Cleary is 0 from 101 at the track in the study period.

Killarney – Declan McDonogh is head and shoulders above the rest here with 26 wins from 104 rides (SR 25%) for a BSP profit of £170.64 (ROI +164.1%).

Leopardstown – Ryan Moore has 42 victories here and is just half a percentage off hitting a 30% win strike rate. You would have lost 11p in the £ however, even to BSP.

Naas – it is Ryan Moore again who has by far the best strike rate at 35.8% (29 wins from 81) for a 4p in the £ BSP return. Colin Keane and Seamie Heffernan are the only other two jockeys above the 15% mark.

Navan – Moore is a rare visitor here but has an impressive 13 from 31.

Tipperary – Billy Lee has the best record here – 39 wins from 214 (SR 18.2%) for a BSP profit of £72.48 (ROI +33.9%).

 

MAIN TAKEWAYS

Let me summarise the key findings:

  1. Irish races have bigger field sizes so we need to appreciate that when we compare Irish strike rates with UK ones;
  2. Ryan Moore has a 3 in 10 strike rate in all races. He has a fantastic record on front running favourites. He has a decent record at several tracks but take note whenever he makes a trip to Navan;
  3. Colin Keane has a very good record on debutants when riding for Ger Lyons. His ‘all runners’ record is outstanding for Michael O'Callaghan (though steadier so far in 2023). He also rides Dundalk as well as anyone and has an excellent strike rate on front running favourites;
  4. Shane B Kelly, Ben Coen and Connor King has proved profitable to follow when riding a fancied horse (first three in the betting);
  5. Seamie Heffernan rides from the front exceptionally well in sprint races (5f to 7f). His record over the same distances on hold up horses is very poor;
  6. Billy Lee has good records at both Cork and Tipperary – each was highly profitable during the review period;
  7. Declan McDonogh is a jockey to follow at Killarney. His record is far superior to the rest.

----

This article has been very interesting to me to research because I personally rarely bet in Irish races; but during the research I’ve found a number of avenues to attack the flat racing puzzle there. I hope the findings have been interesting for you, too.

- DR



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Paddington earns his crust in Tetrarch win

Paddington further strengthened Aidan O’Brien’s formidable Classic hand with a clear-cut success in the Coolmore Stud Blackbeard Irish EBF Tetrarch Stakes at the Curragh.

A five-length winner of a maiden at the track last season, the Siyouni colt kicked off the current campaign with victory in the Madrid Handicap at Leopardstown, earning him a step up in class for a Listed race his trainer had not won for 20 years.

With Seamie Heffernan in the saddle, the 5-6 favourite travelled like the best horse in the race for much of the one-mile contest and picked up well once popped the question to score by a length and a half from stablemate Drumroll, who also shaped with plenty of promise on only his second career start.

The winner was taken out of Saturday’s Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket before Monday’s confirmation stage, but his big-race entries do include the Irish Guineas and the French Guineas, as well as the Dante Stakes at York and the Derby at Epsom.

O’Brien said: “He came forward lovely from Naas. He won his maiden very easy last year and everyone has been delighted with him at home.

“He won the three-year-old handicap at Naas over seven furlongs and this was his first step up to a mile. We thought that he’d get it and that he could even get further.

“He’d have the option of going to the French Guineas or the Irish Guineas and then he could end up being a French Derby horse after that.

“He handles the ground well, he’s by Siyouni out of a Montjeu mare so should handle it on both sides. We’re delighted with him.”

Paddington completed a Listed race double on the card for the O’Brien-Heffernan combination, with 5-2 shot His Majesty earlier making a winning debut in the GAIN First Flier Stakes.

His Majesty and Seamie Heffernan on their way to victory
His Majesty and Seamie Heffernan on their way to victory (Damien Eagers/PA)

O’Brien is hopeful the son of No Nay Never can earn himself a place on his team for Royal Ascot.

“He did it lovely. He’s a lovely, big, sleepy horse,” he said.

“Seamus said he had loads of speed but he was relaxed, he said when he clicked he found plenty. He’s like a four-year-old, a big mature horse.

“You always try to get two runs before Ascot but it’s hard enough to do it here because there aren’t many races. It’s a big advantage if you can. Wherever we can get him out again, we’ll try.”

Do It with Style draws clear at the Curragh
Do It with Style draws clear at the Curragh (Damien Eagers/PA)

Aidan’s son Donnacha O’Brien also has the Royal meeting in mind for Do It With Style (3-1) after her successful introduction in the Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden under Gavin Ryan.

“We thought she was smart. I was a little bit worried about the ground, she’ll be better on better ground, but it was nice to see her do that,” said the trainer.

“I’ll speak to the owners and see but I suppose the Albany Stakes could definitely be an option.”

Former Classic-winning jockey Micky Fenton celebrated his first winner as a trainer when Run Forest Run (8-1) came from the clouds to win the Keadeen Hotel Handicap under Jamie Powell.

“Jamie got to know him after a few rides which was a big help. It’s taken a while to work out how he has to be ridden,” said Fenton.

“It’s brilliant, the Curragh has always been lucky for me. I’ve always had a few winners here when I was a jockey. It’s good to come back and train one here, I can’t believe it really.

“My wife Stephanie led it up as well, we’re only a small stable. We have nine in at the moment and it’s our first full year. I’m based near Mallow.

When asked how this compared to riding winners he said: “ It’s completely different, it’s a big buzz. A dream come true really.”



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Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Thurles : Sizing Pottsie @ 9/4 BOG fell at 9/4 (Led, mistake 7th and slight mistake next, pushed along and joined when fell 2 out) Aside from the fall, the jumping wasn't really up to scratch for this level.

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Naas :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hong Kong @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on heavy ground worth £26,549 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt has already won in the mud here at Naas when scoring by two lengths over 6f last October and his breeding suggests he'll be better in time than his current mark of 88 would intimate.

He is trained by household name, AP O'Brien, who has won this race twice in the last seven runnings and is also 55 from 170 (32.4% SR) for 36.5pts (+21.5% ROI) here at Naas on the Flat with horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter over the last three seasons, including...

  • 37/111 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+35%) over 6f to 1m
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+32.7%) with 3 yr olds
  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 17pts (+25%) in big (ie 12+) fields
  • and 7/19 (36.8%) for 12.6pts (+66.2%) on Soft to Heavy/Heavy ground

...whilst for a broad AP/Naas micro, try 2 & 3 yr olds @ 6f-1m in fields of 7-16 runners = 28/75 (37.3% SR) for 47.1pts (+62.8% ROI).

And that's possibly/probably enough to justify the selection today, but as Hong Kong is now returning from Group 3 action at Newmarket to make a handicap debut here, it's also worth looking at AP's runners making a handicap debut on the Flat and if we do that we see 38 winners from 164 (23.2% SR) for 105.4pts (+64.3% ROI) over the last six seasons, including of note/relevance today...

  • 34/122 (27.9%) for 102.2pts (+83.8%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 28/116 (24.1%) for 85.7pts (+73.9%) with male runners
  • 26/110 (23.6%) for 95.7pts (+87%) with 3 yr olds
  • 19/65 (29.2%) for 91.4pts (+140.6%) over the last two seasons
  • 17/62 (27.4%) for 83.3pts (+134.4%) in races worth £13-75k
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 37.8pts (+145.4%) at 7f
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 28.3pts (+122.9%) here at Naas
  • and 5/25 (20%) for 32.3pts (+129.2%) under today's jockey, Seamie Heffernan

...and an AP/hcp debut micro? 3yo males at Evs to 10/1 over last two seasons = 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 28.3pts (+123.1% ROI)...

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Hong Kong @ 10/3 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.05am Monday whilst Coral were a fraction longer, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Naas

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!



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