ASCOT - OCTOBER 21
It’s worth noting that on better ground twelve months ago compared to this year’s projected going, only 23.5% of the original Placepot investments were still live going into race two. By the half way stage, just 1.2% of investors still retained a Placepot interest. Those facts should keep your feet firmly on the (soggy) ground in terms of investment!
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £230.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners & 5 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.25): 7 (Order Of St George) & 5 (Duretto)
Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Caraggio) & 10 (Harry Angel)
Leg 3 (2.40): 2 (Bateel) & 3 (Journey)
Leg 4 (3.15): 8 (Beat The Bank), 2 (Here Comes When) & 12 (Persuasive)
Leg 5 (3.50): 9 (Cracksman), 7 (Brametot) & 2 (Highland Reel)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Firmament), 14 (Eddystone Rock), 12 (Zabeel Prince), 11 (Dark Red & 13 (White Lake)
Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.25: It is hardly surprising that Irish trainers have declared runners for this opening event, given that raiders from across the Irish Sea have secured four of the last six events. That said, last year’s 4/6 market leader ORDER OF ST GEORGE finished out of the frame back in fourth place, though today’s softer ground should (I repeat should) enable Ryan More’s mount to claim a Placepot position at the very least. We have to take the staying ability of DURETTO on trust but in a race in which too many horses meet each other on a regular basis, Andrew Balding’s raider could be the one to shake up the favourite, albeit Andrew’s 0/28 record here at Ascot this term in a sobering stat to digest. STRADIVARIUS is the clear third choice from my viewpoint. Out of interest, 26 course winners contest the six races at Ascot today. Just to make the art of picking winners a tad more difficult!
Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via four gold medals and two of the silver variety.
Record of course winners in the opening contest:
2/4—Big Orange (good & good to firm)
2/6—Dartmouth (good to firm & good to soft)
2/5—Duretto (good to soft & soft)
1/3—Order Of St George (soft)
1/2—Mount Moriah (good)
1/1—Stradivarious (good to firm)
2.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, with
HARRY ANGEL and CARAVAGGIO heading the chances of four vintage representative by a country mile this time around. Both horses have won on this type of ground, a factor which also brings LIBRISA BREEZE into the Placepot equation, especially with Dean Ivory have saddled four of his last twelve runners to winning effect, statistics which have brought about 59 points of level stake profit. That said, the first named pair should take plenty of kicking out of the frame from what we have witnessed thus far, though don’t be at all surprised of Dean’s five-year-old representative leads the older horses home, possibly just ahead of The Tin Man.
Favourite factor: Eight of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include two winners.
Record of course winners in the second race:
2/5—Librisa Breeze (good to firm & soft)
3/5—The Tin Man (2 x good & good to firm)
1/4—Washington DC (good to firm)
2/2—Caravaggio (good to firm & soft)
1/2—Quiet Reflection (good to soft)
2.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the nine renewals thus far, with CORONET and HORSEPLAY expected to lead the juniors home on this occasion. Proven soft ground winner BATEEL (winner of five of her eight races to date) has been saved for this race for some time by the look of things, with connections of the French raider only having to worry about last year’s highly impressive winner JOURNEY at the business end of proceedings from a win perspective, according to the gospel of yours truly at least.
Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—Coronet (good to firm)
3.15: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals with junior representatives a shade of odds on to extend the advantage still further before the form book is consulted. BEAT THE BANK is the (highly) progressive runner in the race given that his last three victories have been gained in Listed, Group 3 and Group 2 company hence the million dollar Question has to be asked this time around; can the Paco Boy gelding extend that sequence to snare a Group 1 event? We will soon find out whilst not ignoring the each way chance of Andrew Balding’s stable companion HERE COMES WHEN who landed the Sussex Stakes, providing yours truly with one his best results of the year. Connection and media types suggested that the muddling pace of that race brought about the downfall of favourite RIBCHESTER, though I believe that was only part of the reason for the defeat of the market leader that day. Indeed, Andrew’s Danehill Dancer gelding held a fine chance as I pointed out on the day and his success has been largely overlooked in terms of the odds available for this event. This is particularly pleasing from my viewpoint, given the differential of 2/1 and 22/1 according to recent quotes! The ground will once again be in favour of HERE COMES WHEN who was gobbled up at 33/1 (from an each way perspective) when the original odds were offered to your columnist. As a winner of her only race at Ascot on soft ground to date, the 28/1 quote this morning about PERSUASIVE is something of an insult to John Gosden’s Dark Angel filly.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 favourites have finished in the frame (seven winners), though I should remind you of the defeat of Hawk Wing back in 2002 at odds of 1/2.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Queen Elizabeth’:
1/3—Breton Rock (soft)
2/3—Ribchester (good to firm & soft)
1/2—Churchill (good to soft)
3.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals, with four-year-olds having secured three of the other four contests. No four-year-olds have made the final line up this time around, though five-year-old HIGHLAND REEL is something of a ‘forgotten horse’ here, albeit I admit that faster ground would have been ideal. That said, Aidan has hinted on more than one occasion that this Galileo representative continues to be underrated and it would not surprise me in the least if it is only the ground which beats Ryan Moore’s mount on this occasion. John Gosden has no such worries with CRACKSMAN relating to conditions, though his hike back in trip adds interest to proceedings, whilst BRAMETOT will probably prove to be the value for money call from a Placepot perspective, given that British punters tend to ignore such individuals, certainly in terms against their actual win odds.
Favourite factor: Only three favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period. That all said, the two successful market leaders were New Approach and Frankel before last year’s French raider obliged.
Record of the course winners in the Champion Stakes:
1/2—Desert Encounter (good to firm)
2/4—High land Reel (2 x good to firm)
1/1—Barney Roy (good to firm)
4.30: Five-year-olds have won all three contests and the quartet of relevant representatives are around the 11/2 mark to land the four-timer before the form book is consulted. The quartet are listed in order of preference as FIRMAMENT (third in this event twelve months ago), EDDYSTONE ROCK, DARK RED and WHITE LAKE. The latter named raider represents Roger Varian, whose other runner ZABEEL PRINCE is the obvious danger to the five-year-old contingent. It’s worth noting that Roger’s pair are his only runners on the card.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished out with the washing via three renewals.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Speculative Bid (good to firm)
1/2—Accidental Agent (good to soft)
2/7—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
12 runners—Aidan O’Brien (6/38 – loss of 8 points)
10—John Gosden (5/58 – loss of 18 points)
5—Andrew Balding (0/28)
5—Richard Hannon (5/52 +1)
4—Richard Fahey (2/38 +15)
4—David Simcock (2/24 +11)
3—David Elsworth (1/17 – loss of 5 points)
2—Ralph Beckett (2/24 – loss of 15 points)
2—Clive Cox (1/25 – loss of 19 points)
2—William Haggas (8/45 +6)
2—C Laffron-Parias (No previous runners)
2—David O’Meara (1/32 – loss of 6 points)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/24 – loss of 9 points)
2—Roger Varian (4/35 – loss of 20 points)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
81 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £230.50 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced
Ffos Las: £32.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Market Rasen: £3,750.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Stratford: £383.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhmapton: £11.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced