Posts

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

Your first 30 days for just £1

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

6.30 Windsor : Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 5, 2m3f Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ on Good ground, worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old comes here in good nick, having finished 323231 since returning from a 216-day absence in May this year. She was last seen 12 days ago, winning comfortably by 6 lengths here over course and distance staying on well under today's jockey Marc Goldstein.

She's trained by Shaun Lycett, whose LTO winners are 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 7pts (+25% ROI) profit since the start of 2014 and these include...

  • at odds of 4/1 and shorter : 8/13 (61.5%) for 22pts (+169%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.85pts (+142.8%)
  • NH runners : 4/8 (50%) for 8.19pts (+102.4%)
  • hurdlers : 3/6 (50%) for 6.68pts (+111.3%)
  • and hurdlers at 4/1 & shorter are 3/3 (100%) for 9.68pts (+322.7%)

Scotsbrook Night was sired by the late (and great IMO) Midnight Legend (regular/long-term readers will recall my liking for ML offspring), whose "daughters" are 37/157 (23.6% SR) for 131.1pts (+83.5% ROI) in handicap hurdles over trips shorter than 2.5 miles since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those aged 5 to 8 are 37/141 (26.2%) for 147.1pts (+104.3%)
  • at Class 3 to 5 : 36/140 (25.7%) for 135.1pts (+96.5%)
  • and those aged 5 to 8 running at Class 3 to 5 are 36/124 (29%) for 151.1pts (+121.9%)

And finally/more generally, it's worth noting that in UK handicap hurdles since the start of 2013, female runners who won a novice hurdle LTO 11 to 90 days earlier are 39/193 (20.2% SR) for 63.7pts (+33% ROI) with those returning to the same course and distance as that LTO success winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 16.1pts (+100.4%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power on opening show at 5.15pm on Monday evening. SkyBet also opened up (5.30pm) at 10/3 BOG too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Isabella @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Led, driven and hard pressed from over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on when narrowly headed inside final furlong, just held)

We continue with Tuesday's...

8.00 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Firm ground worth £5588 to the winner... 

Why?

After falling just short yesterday (pace prediction spot on, but she just couldn't see it out), today's cards are not what I wanted to face looking for a winner, as it's possibly the worst day's racing I've seen for a while. That said, every race has a winner and I expect this 7yr old gelding to do just that.

I'm going to keep it simple, though and start with the horse himself. A runner-up on each of his last two starts, firstly over 2m1.5f and then over 2m4.5f twelve days ago, he stayed on well both times but looked like he needs even further, so an extra 350 yards or so could well make all the difference today.

He's trained by Donald McCain, who admittedly hasn't had as many winners of late as he'd have liked (a feeling I'm very familiar with!), but with 60% of his 20 runners making the frame over the last fortnight, the signs are there that both the camp is in good nick and better times are around the corner.

I should at this point draw the correlation between today's type of contest and Donald's recent record, because since the start of 2016, you could blindly back his Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdlers over trips of 2m3,5f to 2m7f and make a tidy profit. More specifically : 37 winners from 215 (17.2% SR) have generated level stakes profit of 80.1pts (+37.3% ROI) from a simple blind "bet and forget" approach.

And of those 215 runners, those reappearing after a rest of just 11 to 20 days are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 43.9pts (+102% ROI).

And now onto his record here at Stratford, which is more than decent in that same 2016 to 2018 timeframe, but he simply doesn't send many here! That said, those that have come have won 7 of 24 (29.2% SR) for 38.5pts (+160.5% ROI) profit, so they're more than worth a second glance, especially as...

  • hurdlers are 4/16 (25%) for 18pts (+112.7%)
  • Class 4 runners are 4/14 (28.6%) for 27.8pts (+198.9%)
  • using a claiming jockey = 4/12 (33.3%) for 31.34pts (+261.2%)
  • in the June to September summer jumps period : 5/9 (55.6%) for 46.4pts (+515.3%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/2 : 4/6 966.6%) for 8.5pts (+141.7%)
  • those last seen 10-25 days ago are 3/5 (60%) for 24.71pts (+494.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 2/4 (50%) for 3.15pts (+78.75%)
  • those beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 2/2 (100%) for 5.15pts (+257.5%)
  • and Harry Stock has ridden one winner from two for 2.33pts profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from at least a half dozen firms at 5.30pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.45 Ayr : Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, driven when challenged from over 1f out, held on gamely to win by a shorthead)

We now press on with Tuesday's...

2.55 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 4 Flat  Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground worth £7018 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar Class 4 handicap chase over just half a furlong shorter 14 days ago on his first crack at a non-novice Handicap Chase. Jockey Daniel Sansom retains the ride from that day and is already 2 from 3 on this horse.

Trainer Seamus Mullins' horses are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 12 from 64 (18.75% SR) for 21.05pts (+32.9% ROI). Both of these details are useful pointers, but this horse became of real interest to me when he was flagged up as a qualifier of one my (many) stored micro-systems, namely...

...2013-18 / UK Class 3-4 Handicap Chases / shorter than 3.5 miles / going contains the word "good" : males who won a Hcp Chase LTO 4-20 days earlier are 216/823 (26.3% SR) for 124pts (+15.1% ROI), including...

  • at odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 158/654 (24.2%) for 157.7pts (+24.1%)
  • 1-2 previous hcp chase wins : 162/545 (29.7%) for 119.4pts (+21.9%)
  • 6-15 days since LTO win : 144/483 (29.8%) for 115.7pts (+23.9%)
  • 1-5 previous hcp chase runs : 109/379 (28.8%) for 55.2pts (+14.6%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 13/47 (27.7%) for 13.8pts (+29.3%)

...from which, those with 1-2 previous hcp chase wins from 1-5 previous hcp chase runs priced at 6/4 to 10/1 running 6 to 15 days after the LTO win are 51/154 (33.1% SR) for 109.6pts (+71.2% ROI) with 2018 showing 4 winners from 7 (57.1%) for 18.9pts (+269.7%) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on I See You Well @ 5/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 19

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years on Day One:

2017: £585.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £522.47

45 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 78.0% units went through – 11/10* - 5/1 – 12/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 59.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 14/1 – 11/4*

Race 4: 25.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 12/1 – 6/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 10/1 – 5/1 – 12/1

Race 6: 9.6% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 12/1 – 25/1 (13/8)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 15 (Rhododendron) & 3 (Benbati)

Leg 2 (3.05): 20 (Swergai Prokofiev), 7 (Calyx) & 23 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Lady Aurelia) & 2 (Blue Point)

Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (U S Navy Flag), 9 (Without Parole) & 10 (Wooton)

Leg 5 (5.00): 7 (Chelkar), 20 (Coeur De Lion), 1 (Whiskey Sour) & 11 (Look My Way)

Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Laaraib), 13 (Sharja Bridge) & 15 (Yucatan)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

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2.30:  Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of RHODODRENDON and BENBATI, horses that possess other firm trends in their favour.  Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes in very much the best stepping stone for this event and RHODODENDRON won the event this year with Aiden O’Brien’s raider returning to the type of form he showed of old.  It’s worth noting that Aidan’s two winners during the last decade ran in the ‘Lockinge’ in their previous races, albeit without winning their respective contests.  No trainer has saddled more ‘Queen Anne’ winners that Saeed Bin Suroor (seven in total) whereby we know that BENBATI has been laid out for the contest for some considerable time.  With Saeed having saddled his last winner in the race back in 2007, few people would deny the original ‘blue trainer’ another victory.  A far as jockeys are concerned, we have to focus on Ryan Moore (RHODODENDRON) whose record since 2013 stands at 45% in terms of his mounts finishing in the first three, 21% of which were winners! Indeed, Ryan set a post war record in 2015 by riding nine winners at the meeting. Recoletros is the nomination for the overnight reserve, whilst the pick of the big outsiders could prove to be Beat The Bank who although trounced by Aidan’s projected favourite in the Lockinge has, at least, got race fitness back on his side this time around.  That said, the last ten winners have all emerged from the front three in the market.  Frankie Dettori would have been trying to take the outright lead in the ‘jockey stakes’ in the race but for missing out on a ride, having the same number of winners (six in total) as Sir Gordon Richards.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored in the last twenty one years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the five course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:

1/4—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

1/2—Benbati (good to firm)

1/3—Century Dream (soft)

1/3—Limato (goot to firm)

1/2—Lord Glitters (soft)

 

3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 22 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his Scat Daddy colt SERGAI PORKOFIEV. That said, THE IRISH ROVER won at the Lockinge meeting at Newbury is taking style suggesting that Aidan’s ‘second string’ is no forlorn hope, especially from a Placepot perspective.  No trainer has even equalled Aiden’s record in the race, let alone beaten his record.  A victory for John Gosden’s Kingman raider CALYX would put a smile on the trainer’s face, the sire having only been beaten (half a length) in the 2014 renewal of the 2000 Guineas in eight races during his wonderful career.  Speculative investors could do worse than have a small each way nibble with Advertise.  That said, eight of the last ten winners have emerged from the front three in the market.

Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  

Record of the two course winners in the Coventry Stakes:

1/1—Blown By Wind (good to firm)

1/1—Getchagetchagetcha (good to soft)

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years: 

11 winners—9 placed—25 unplaced.

'Starting prices stats in the last 15 years: 

7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-31 unplaced

15/2 or more: 3 winners—-20 placed-—181 unplaced

28/1 or more: No winners-—6 placed—-87 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last 15 years:

January: 1 winner & 7 places

February: 6 winners & 7 places

March: 5 winners & 9 places

April: 3 winners & 5 places

May: No winners & 2 places

 

3.40: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders and I find it difficult to pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done.  I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through.  Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal.  Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess.  We have been assured by media commentators this this event has long since looked to be a match between LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH, though sprint races in particular have long since had a habit of producing ‘pear shaped’ results.  Both horses have obvious claims via the form book but tell me something; if the form book is the be all and end all of racing, why are there so many bookmakers rubbing their hands with glee this morning?  Indeed, this is the perfect type of race for layers, with punters anxious to get their cash on two horses which ‘couple’ at odds of around 1/2, with twelve other half decent rivals trying to lower their colours!  On the face of things bookmakers can’t lose because if the market leaders fight out the finish, layers have an even money chance of the right one winning for them, with only one placed horse in their books costing them money!  LADY AURELIA (been there and obtained the t-shirt) is my pick of the duo, though hopefully BLUE POINT will make the pair pull out all of the stops close home.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst 12 of the last 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions going back further in time

Record of the five course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:

2/3—Blue Point (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Gifted Master (good to soft)

1/5—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Lady Aurelia (Good to firm & soft)

1/1—Different League (good to firm)

 

4.20: Let’s get one thing straight to start with.  Media commentators will be waxing lyrical about this event but it takes facts to back up big races and this renewal does not ‘cut the mustard’ I’m afraid.  The last five winners have averaged an official rating of 122, compared to the mark of 109 for Tuesday’s projected market leader.  There is no doubting the potential of John Gosden’s raider WITHOUT PAROLE but that said, his last win was in a Listed event at Sandown whereas last year’s winner was coming off the back off a second placed effort in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last seventeen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany gave Frankel a fright seven years ago.  Aidan saddles US NAVY FLAG who is a dual Group 1 winner, albeit as a juvenile.  There was plenty to like about his second placed effort in the Irish 2000 Guineas the last day, whilst my trio against the remaining seven contenders is completed by WOOTON who will represent decent Placepot value, as is the case for most overseas raiders.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 19 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 19 years was an 8/1 chance.  15 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last three years in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of four of the five Willie Mullins raiders into the equation, the pick of which arguably include CHELKAR and WHISKEY SOUR. Ten of the last twelve winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY additionally enter the overnight mix. Eight of the last ten winners emerged from the top four horses in the betting, whilst last nine of the last 14 winners carried weights ranging between 8-12 and 9-3, burdens which are carried by my two English contenders COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last nineteen years (three winners).  Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.  I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post.  I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps.  My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race.  With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 22/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective. 

Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:  

1/6—Hassle (good)

1/1—Sam Missile (good to firm)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest (previous contested on the Saturday of the five day meeting) whilst seventeen of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of LARAAIB, SHARJA BRIDGE and YUCATAN.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute’s raider MIRAGE DANCER only carries 16 ounces over the ‘superior barrier’ whereby Michael might finally take the trainer record from Sir Henry Cecil, the pair each having saddled a staggering 75 winners at the royal meeting.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course record of the course winner in the Listed Wolferton Handicap:

1/1—Laraaib (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th June

HAYDOCK – JUNE 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Sea Youmzain) & 2 (Podemos)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Cribbs Causeway), 5 (God Given) & 4 (Fosun)

Leg 3 (3.25): 7 (Final Venture), 9 (Muthmir) & 4 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Emmaus), 2 (Dutch Connection) & 1 (D’Bai)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Calder Prince) & 2 (Mickey)

Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Last Page), 3 (Breaking Records) & 2 (Choice Encounter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: SEA YOUMZAIN represents Mark Johnston’s yard which is approaching ‘boiling point’ now and with support coming in for his recent Nottingham winner, Mark’s Sea The Stars raider can follow up successfully. PODEMOS is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

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2.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and CRIBBS CAUSEWAY and GOD GIVEN head this year’s vintage representatives from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, foreign raiders often represent decent value from a Placepot perspective which will, likely as not, be the case again with the German representative FOSUN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having won three renewals during the last decade during which time, all ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Half (6/12) of the favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—God Given (soft)

 

3.25: FINAL VENTURE has been dropped nine spots by the official assessor since winning this event twelve months ago and cynics could argue that running off the same weight here suggests that Paul Midgley’s inmate is up against it, and then some!  Overnight support suggests that this might not be the attitude to take however and certainly from a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation is adding Paul’s eight time winner into the equation.  Others to consider include MUTHMIR and BLUE DE VEGA, especially as Robert Cowell’s latter named raider is the pick of the two five-year-olds in the contest, with vintage representatives boasting four victories in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals. That said, the four favourites before the last two market leaders won their respective events had finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/2—Gracious John (soft)

1/2—Final Venture (soft)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds boast the best recent record on the ‘John Of Gaunt’ event, snaring five contests during the last ten years and EMMAUS and D’BAI both offer serious form to bring into the contest on this occasion.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Roger Varian (Emmaus) getting into top form now, the trainer having secured three victories via his last six runners.  The main threat to vintage contenders this time around appears to be DUTCH CONNECTION.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last ten contests.  Aside from a couple of rogue gold medallists at 33/1 and 10/1, the other eight renewals during the last decade have been claimed by horses starting at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the last eleven favourites during the last decade claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Muntadab (soft)

1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)

 

4.35: Tom Dascombe (and Michael Owen for that matter) hold this venue and Chester close to their hearts and the two inmates CALDER PRINCE and MICKEY both have sound claims in this grade/company on the best of their form lines.  I doubt whether both horses will finish out of the frame in all honesty, offering REPUTATION as the party pooper in the field if Tom and Michael are to be denied from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

2/8—Calder Prince (good to firm & soft)

2/2—Pennsylvania Dutch (good & soft)

 

5.10: David Evans has two chances on the card but LAST PAGE is his main player from my viewpoint and 7/1 with Skybet this morning proved too big for yours truly to resist.  Three of the last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5, stats which also bring BREAKING RECORDS and CHOICE ENCOUNTER into the mix.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the six renewals in the Placepot finale.  Five of the six market leaders have secured Placpot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th June

GOODWOOD – JUNE 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £156.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 55.9% units went through – 9/2 – 6/1 – 7/2*

Race 2: 48.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 9/2** - 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 3: 32.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 22/1 – 6/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 55.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 5/1

Race 6: 28.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 9 (Unbridled Spirit), 2 (Cheeky Rascal) & 4 (Marble Bar)

Leg 2 (6.30): 7 (Flowing Clarets), 5 (Incentive) & 8 (Mad Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Sky Eagle), 2 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Arab Moon)

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Leg 4 (7.40): 2 (Pretty Jewel), 3 (Arcadian Cat), 4 (Gift Of Hera) & 1 (Reckless Wave)

Leg 5 (8.15): 2 (Silca Mistress)

Leg 6 (8.50): 9 (Supernova), 5 (Great Beyond) & 3 (Crystal King)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • Nice win for us yesterday with 48 winning 10p lines at Sandown which created a Placepot profit of £212.64 on the day…

 

5.55: Although three of his seven runners won during a good period this time last week, Andrew Balding’s runners continue to blow hot and cold this season, though I’m hoping the flag back at the ranch will by flying at its highest mast after UNBRIDLED SPIRIT scores here, chiefly at the expense of CHEEKY RASCAL and MARBLE BAR I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top priced of 7/1, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.  Five of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

6.30: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in this event, though only John Bridger (FLOWING CLARETS) seems alive to the potential ‘edge’.  Luke Morris might find himself in a tassle to grab the lead aboard John’s raider early doors though either way, I’m adding Flowing Clarets into the mix via my self-confessed anorak tendencies.  Stuart Kittow’s pair INCENTIVE and MAD ENDEAVOUR are included in the Placepot equation in a race which could produce a result which will kill off several thousand Placepot units – hopefully!

Favourite factor: Four of the last five winners (of six in total) have scored at a top price of 5/1, stats which include two (7/2 & 5/2) winners.  That said, only three of the seven market leaders thus far have finished in the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Oeil De Tigre (good to soft)

1/3—Mad Endeavour (soft)

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet only a trio of vintage representatives feature in the nine strong field.  There have been other forecasts gained during the period though the 2015 renewal stood out with four-year-olds securing a 120/1 Exacta Forecast alongside the 345/1 Trifecta dividend!  This year’s trio are SKY EAGLE, HUMBLE HERO and ARAB MOON.  The defence rests its case!

Favourite factor: Only one 7/2 (joint favourite) has obliged during the last decade during which time, just four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/3—Arthur Mc Bride (good & soft)

 

7.40: PRETTY JEWELL would be the call if had to nominate one of the four declarations from a win perspective, though with her course victory having been gained under soft conditions, I feel duty bound to include all four runners in my permutation before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Pretty Jewel (soft)

 

8.15: I have searched through the card for a banker in one of the races, knowing that I was going to have to offer large perms in some races, believing that a good Placepot dividend is on the cards tonight.  I have opted for SILCA MISTRESS, even though Clive Cox’s raider drops down a furlong after scoring at Leicester recently.  Having made all at Leicester, pace should not be an issue and nothing should be staying on stronger in the final furlong.  Adam Kirby’s mount has secured gold and silver medals over this distance in the past via six assignments, whilst her two victories to date have been gained under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first (seventh of nine) it what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

8.50: SUPERNOVA looks a tad big at 9/2 in four places at the time of writing, whilst others added into the Placepot equation are GREAT BEYOND and CRYSTAL KING.  If you are looking for an each way interest in the race, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Sarim I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest to close out the Goodwood programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 20th May

RIPON – MAY 20 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £26.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 86.6% units went through – 11/2 & 1/2*

Race 2: 36.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 – 18/1 – 4/1*

Race 3: 33.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 9/1 – 28/1

Race 4: 53.9% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 15/2 – 7/1

Race 5: 61.6% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 9/4* - 10/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* - 10/1 – 5/2

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Ripon: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Coolagh Magic) & 1 (Azor Ahai)

Leg 2 (2.20): 6 (Sir Derrick), 13 (Erastus) & 1 (Cardaw Lily)

Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (We Are The World) 1 (Starlight Mystery) & 2 (Indomeneo)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Mutamaded) & 2 (Trading Point)

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Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Magical Dreamer), 1 (Show Stealer) & 7 (Maureb)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Tigre Du Terre) & 3 (Gift Of Raaj)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: This race lacks the class of the event twelve month ago which was won by a horse which went on the finish less than three lengths behind the winner of Royal Ascot’s Coventry Stakes.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that COOLAGH MAGIC might be the type to score at the first time of asking, chiefly at the expense of AZOR AHAI in all probability.  Desert Lantern looks booked for third spot as there has been a lack of interest (early doors) in Dark Havana from Karl Burke’s yard.  Any money for Karl’s Havana Gold raider would add interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: The inaugural race was split into two divisions, producing a successful 4/6 market leader alongside an 11/4 favourite which missed out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. Last year’s 1/2 favourite found one too good when finishing in the frame.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner events in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

2.20: High on numbers but short on class, this Class 6 race lives up to its billing unfortunately, as was the case twelve months ago, though at least the 9/2 winner was short listed by yours truly.  I can report money for SIR DERRICK overnight which is an ‘edge’ to a fashion I guess, though it took less than a king’s ransom to set the gambling wheels in motion I’ll wager.  I’ll take any help I can get however, whereby Tm Easerby’s raider is the first name on the team sheet ahead of Ruth Carr’s pair, namely ERASTUS and CARDAW LILY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.

 

2.55:  These three-year-old handicap races begin to take on more significance over the next few weeks leading up to Epsom/Royal Ascot with the majority of the runners now having had their respective seasonal debut appearances.  Mark Johnston is rarely out of the headlines north of Watford and it’s worth reporting that four of Mark’s last runners have won, whereby I’m offering an each way chance to STARLIGHT MYSTERY who tops the weights.  WE ARE THE WORLD and INDOMENEO are added into the Placepot equation.  Sylvestre De Sousa rides the latter named raider for Richard Fahey.  Although the pair have only teamed up to a 16% success rate down the years, they have produced level stake profits of 16 points via the relevant six winners.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4, 11/4 & 6/4) winners.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/1—Starlight Mystery (good to firm)

1/1—Indomeneo (soft)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds have won three of the last renewals (and six of the last ten) whereby the chance of TRADING POINT (attempting a hat trick here) is very much respected.  That said, David O’Meara’s representative runs into MUTAMADED who is defending an unbeaten 3/3 record at Ripon and with Ruth Carr boasting level stake profits of 68 points down the years at this venue, I’m siding with her Arcano gelding.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 14 favourites (four winners) have snared Placepot positions via eleven renewals to date.  Six of the gold medallists have been returned at 4/1 or less, accompanied by three 16/1 chances alongside 10/1 & 15/2 gold medallists.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

3/3—Mutamaded (2 x good & soft)

1/2—Fayez (good)

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have a good record in this contest (the score stands at 5-6 via 15 renewals), whereby one horse from each vintage will do for starters, namely MGICAL DREAMER and SHOW STEALER, the pair being listed in order of preference.  MAUREB is starting to attract money as I begin to close out the column whereby Tony Coyle’s Excellent Art mare is entered into the Placepot mix.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Pennypot Lane.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have scored via 15 renewals to date, whilst eight market leaders failed to finish in the frame.

Record of the two  course winners in the fifth race on the card:

2/4—Pennypot Lane (good & good to soft)

1/2—Silver Starlight (good)

 

4.30: TIGRE DU TERRE finished second in a warm Listed event as a juvenile and has already proved that he has ‘trained on’ whereby this should be a formality for Richard Hannon’s Le Havre colt.  Richard secured a 23/1 double on last year’s corresponding card but is content to send Silvestre’s mount on his lonesome for the long journey today.  GIFT OF RAAJ should win the battle for secondary honours, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Ripon card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 22nd April

WINCANTON – APRIL 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £55.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 80.8% units went through – 2/11* (Win only)

Race 2: 59.8% of the remaining units when through – Evens* (Win only)

Race 3: 18.8% of the remaining units went through – 13/8 (Win only - 5/4)

Race 4: 63.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 9/4*

Race 5: 84.2% of the remaining units went through – 1/14* (Win only)

Race 6: 27.0% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 (Win only - 6/4)

Out of interest, the Placepot ‘prices’ in the win only races were as follows:

SP of 2/11* – Placepot ‘price’: 1/4

SP of Evens* – P’Pot: 4/6

SP of 13/8 – P’pot: 9/2

SP of 1/14* – P’pot: 1/5

SP of 9/4 – P’pot: 11/4

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Blu Cavalier), 3 (El Presente) & 4 (Malachite)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Little Miss Poet), 9 (The Sweeney) & 8 (Waterloo Warror)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (The Last But One) & 6 (Buster Thomas)

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Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Volpone Jelois) & 4 (Canoodle)

Leg 5 (4.25): 6 (Diamond Guy), 4 (Big Difference) & 9 (Serosevsky)

Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Guerilla Tactics) & 3 (Bears Rails)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Five-year-olds have ruled the roost having won five of the eleven contests, stats which are all the more impressive given that vintage representative were visible only by their absence twelve months ago.  EL PRESENTE and MALACHITE are two half decent runners on behalf of the vintage though that said, Paul Nicholls has saddled five winners via his last seven runners in the race whereby hat trick seeker BLU CAVALIER has to be the call.

Favourite factor: Nine of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Blu Cavalier (heavy)

 

2.50: Eleven of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more which basically eliminates the bottom five horses if you take the weight stats seriously.  LITTLE MISS POET is a Placepot call but with the Philip Hobbs runners still failing to sparkle regularly, Richard Johnson’s mount is joined in the mix by speculative types such as THE SWEENEY and WATERLOO WARRIOR.

Favourite factor: Ten of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/1—Paddy’s Runner (soft)

 

3.20: The potential thunderstorms I spoke of yesterday didn’t arrive until mid-evening here in the west-country and it remains to be seen (at the time of writing) whether Wincanton (and Stratford come to that) were hit as hard as Bristol in terms of rainfall.  Either way, it’s difficult to oppose the 3/4 fencing record of THE LAST BUT ONE and the Paul Nicholls representative is expected to score again, chiefly at the expense of BUSTER THOMAS.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite finished second when claiming a Placepot position before last year’s 5/4 market leader could only finish third in a four runner ‘win only’ event.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/4—The Last But One (heavy)

1/1—Wilberdragon (good)

 

3.50: Paul Nicholls usually finds a half decent inmate to contest these amateur rider events and this year’s stable representative is VOLPONE JELOIS.  Paul’s five-year-old raider will not represent good value but hopefully having reached the second half of our favourite wager, we don’t want to become too preoccupied with prices with a dividend to be won, any which way and how. CANOODLE is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite found one too good for him in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in fourth race:

1/6—Zulu Oscar (good to soft)

 

4.25: Paul Nicholls has won both races to date whereby DIAMOND GUY is the first name on the team sheet, especially as Harry Cobden’s mount is the only horse in the fifteen strong field to have attracted any real cash in the positive exchange queue at the time of writing.  Other to consider include BIG DIFFERENCE and SEROSEVSKY.

Favourite factor: Two extremely hot favourites have won this race to date at odds of 1/8 & 1/14.  Thank goodness we have a more competitive event to look forward to this afternoon.

Record of course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Diamond Guy (good to firm)

 

4.55:  GUERILLA TACTICS might well have maintained an unbeaten record here at Wincanton the last day but for falling in a heap on landing.  His chance to reap compensation for connections is there for all to see with BEARS RAILS the likeliest silver medallist in the field.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 market leader could only finish second in yet another ‘win only’ event which dominated the card twelve months ago.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Water Wagtail (good to soft)

1/2—Guerilla Tactics (good)

1/9—Shanann Star (soft)

 

Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race at 6.00:

1/1—Dashel Drasher (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th March

PLUMPTON – MARCH 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £53.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Larry) & 1 (Dell Oro)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Ramore Will), 3 (Le Coeur Net) & 4 (Lillington)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Ballyheigue Bay), 6 (Amberjam) & 2 (Pop Rockstar)

Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Iconic Sky), 5 (Molly Carew) & 3 (Jubilympics)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sounds Of Italy) & 3 (Black Franks Angel)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Lubatic) & 4 (King Cnut)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners have been sent off at a top price of 11/4 (see further stats below).  Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six recent renewals, though Gary Moore has tilted the potential balance in favour of the five-year-olds this time around by having declared LARRY and DELL ORO (both vintage representatives) on this occasion.  The trade press quote of even money and 7/1 in favour of the latter named raider is not working out in the dead of night, with LARRY being the marginal market leader at the time of writing. All of that said, Gary will be mindful that Seaston Spirit is a heavy ground winner who might yet split the pair on the run to the line at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 17 favourites have won, though four of the other seven market leaders finished out of the frame in races won by horses which were sent off at 33/1 (twice)--20/1--8/1--5/1—11/4--13/8.

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and with RAMORE WILL representing Chris Gordon who won with all of his five runners on the corresponding day last year (946/1 accumulator), I cannot leave the top weight out of the mix, despite the fact that faster ground would have been preferable.  I should (perhaps) remind readers that I flagged up Chris’s runners last year before he snared the five-timer. Others of interest here include LE COEUR NET and LILLINGTON.

Favourite factor: 23 of the last 26 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 8/1 or less (four winning favourites).  Four of the other eight market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/3—Ramore Will (good)

1/3—Le Coeur Lad (soft)

1/16—Sir Hubert (heavy)

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3.20: 15/2 about POP ROCKSTAR looks a tad big in a place this morning, albeit I prefer the chance of BALLYHEIGUE BAY despite the fact that seven pound claimer Harry Reed will have to be at his ‘calculating best’ if Chris Gordon’s raider makes the running as was the case at Ascot over a shorter trip the last day.  AMBERJAM might make BALLYHEIGUE BAY pull out all the stops close home.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

2/5—Ballyheigue Bay (good to soft & soft)

3/8—Tambura ( 2 x soft & good to soft)

1/5—Clondaw Bisto (heavy)

1/3—Sandhurst Lad (good to soft)

 

3.50: Lucy Wadham boasts definite claims of a potential double on the card via her two runners, with ICONIC SKY rounding off Lucy’s afternoon having saddled Amberjam in the previous contest.  That said, Lucy will have done her homework which will have informed her that both MOLLY CAREW and JUBILYMPICS have won under these conditions in the past.  LOVES DESTINATION is another to consider in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/6—Loves Destination (soft & heavy)

4/13—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/6—Snippetydoodah (heavy)

 

4.20: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last twelve renewals during the last thirteen years.  Indeed, seven-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests; so why then (trainers) are vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence this time around?   Upwards and onwards in positive mode (I guess) by suggesting that eight-year-old BACK FRANKS ANGEL could be the each way call in the short field contest, though SOUNDS OF ITALY is a more logical winner via the form book.  The Lion Dancer (Charlie Mann saddled the winner last year) is the other plausible winner in the field from my viewpoint.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 29 of the 32 horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date started at 9/1 or less.  Five of the thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

 

4.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum weight of 10-12 and the pick of this year’s four ‘qualifiers’ will hopefully prove to be LUBATIC and KING CNUT.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals split the last two winning favourites in this event (10/3 last year and 6/4 in 2008) albeit eight winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 13/2.  Only two of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame, not that this was a Placepot event on last year’s card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Chris Gordon (4/29 – loss of 2 points) – 24/156 +19

3—Johnny Farrelly (0/5) – 5/26 – loss of 2

3—Gary Moore (13/58 +6) – 56/276 – loss of 12

2—Lawney Hill (1/5 +1) – 7/33 +12

2—Ron Hodges (First runners here this season) – 0/2

2—Anthony Honeyball (4/18 – loss of 8) – 17/58 – loss of 10

2—Neil King (2/14 – loss of 5) – 10/69 – loss of 28

2—Neil Mulholland (5/19 – marginal loss) – 12/74 – loss of 12

2—Seamus Mullins (2/19 – loss of 3) – 14/129 – loss of 53

2—Richard Rowe (1/9 – loss of 3) – 6/64 – loss of 30

2—Lucy Wadham (1/4 – level profit/loss this term) – 2/20 – loss of 14

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

41 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Stratford: £98.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Taunton: No corresponding meeting on the Monday of Cheltenham week

Chelmsford: £43.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 2nd November

LINGFIELD – NOVEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £112.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 7 (Scandaleuse) & 4 (Ghanimah)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Il Primo Sole) & 12 (Statehood)

Leg 3 (1.20): 4 (Promising Run) & 1 (Muffri’Ha)

Leg 4 (1.50): 10 (Bobbie Wheeler), 14 (Easy Tiger) & 4 (Sacred Act)

Leg 5 (2.25): 9 (Cribbs Causeway), 14 (Val De Marne) & 12 (Melodic Motion)

Leg 6 (2.55): 6 (Miss Pacific), 7 (Unit Of Assessment) & 11 (Luxford)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: It appears significant that the Sir Michael Stoute team can make its journey back to Newmarket following the first race on the card, with SCANDALEUSE being the only stable representative at Lingfield on Thursday.  Indeed, Michael only has two more runners pencilled in before next Monday whereby the entry here takes on a more positive declaration from my viewpoint.  GHANIMAH looks the obvious threat, with a Placepot position surely there for the taking if the William Haggas trained Invincible Spirit filly can offer the normal amount of improvement (whatever that is) following a decent debut effort at Kempton three weeks ago.

Favourite factor: We are back in the realms of ‘fantasy land’ whereby the powers that be have labelled the first two races on the card as ‘new events’ even though they carry the exact credentials required to contest the races in the past!  Upwards and onward be informing the first two (1/2 & 5/4) favourites found one too good for them when securing Placepot positions thus far, should you decide to stick with my historic facts and figures.  If that should be the case, I’ll round of by parting with the news that last year’s even money market leader failed to reach the frame.

 

12.45: Charlie Appleby’s Kodiac newcomer STATEHOOD also holds an entry next Tuesday but with only IL PRIMO SOLE standing out from the crowd relating to the opposition here, it is little wonder that the Godolphin raider has been offered this event in which to attend school for the first time.  Whether Charlie’s March foal can get on terms with John Gosden’s impressive debut winner is another matter entirely though in receipt of seven pounds from the favourite, there may not be a great deal of daylight between the pair as they cross the line.

Favourite factor: Only three (4/5, 7/4 & 15/8) favourites have won during the last eleven, whilst three 25/1 winners have been record during the last eight contests.

 

1.20: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a five timer and with PROMISING RUN representing Saeed Bin Suroor (last three runners have won), the trend could be extended.  That said, MUFFRI‘HA won this event in facile fashion last year and coming to the party almost on identical terms relating to the official mark and weight, it seems inconceivable that James Doyle’s mount could finish out of the frame.  The 3/3 course record of SIMPLY ME demands attention, even as one of the complete outsiders in the field.

Favourite factor:  Last year’s successful 5/4 market leader (Muffri’Ha) ended a drought which had lasted five years.  That said, the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, albeit there were a trio of winners returned at price.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Muffri’Ha

3/3—Simply Me

2/4—Somethingthrilling

 

1.50: This is a really interesting contest with the seven course winners in the field boasting an aggregate strike rate of 27% on the Polytack surface at Lingfield.  Four-year-olds have secured six contests during the last decade with BOBBIE WHEELER hopefully proving to be the best of the trio of vintage representatives on this occasion.  EASY TIGER might prove to be the pick of the relevant course winners, whilst SACRED ACT completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, the top priced winner being returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Mutawathed

5/19—Alfred Hutchinson

1/3—Miracle Of Medinah

1/5--Baracouda Boy

3/8—Mr Bossy Boots

3/15—Shyron

2/4—Easy Tiger

 

2.25: Three-year-olds lead four-year-olds 6-3 via the last ten renewals, with six junior runners having been declared this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRIBBS CAUSEWAY, VAL DE MARNE and MELODIC MOTION.  The middle named French raider will represent Placepot value for money as overseas raiders invariably do whatever their form, rivals and or class of contest.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites has finished in the frame.  Going back a little further in time however, it’s only fair to report that three of the last eight contests were secured by market leaders.

Record of course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Cribbs Causeway

 

2.55: Three of the last five contests have been won by three-year-olds, whilst all ten winners during the last decade carried a minimum weight of 9-2.  Six junior raiders have been entered this time around, with your truly siding with the likes of MISS PACIFIC, UNIT OF ASSESSMENT and LUXFORD at the time of writing.  The trio are listed in order of preference, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten renewals have been won by horses sent off at a top price of 8/1 during which time, three (3/1, 15/8 & 13/8) favourites prevailed.  Five of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last decade.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Rum Swizzle

3/27—Shifting Star

1/8—Silver Dixie

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Thursday alongside their ratios on Lingfield’s A/W track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

3 runners—Ralph Beckett (5/20 – loss of 7 points)

3—Patrick Chamings (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

3—David Evans (1/60 – loss of 50 points)

3—John Gosden (4/16 – loss of 1 points)

3—William Haggas (5/11 +4)

3—Sir Mark Prescott (2/14 +1)

3—Marcus Tregoning (3/6 +3)

2—Michael Attwater (7/44 +20)

2—Michael Bell (3/10 +3)

2—Martin Bosley (0/11)

2—Tony Carroll (5/36 – loss of 9 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/9)

2—Ed Dunlop (2/19 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Fahey (3/29 – loss of 14 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/14)

2—William Knight (2/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/19 – loss of 11 points)

2—Brendan Powell (0/4)

2—Amanda Perrett (4/31 – loss 16 points)

2—John Ryan (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

+54 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £138.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £72.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £486.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st October

ASCOT - OCTOBER 21

 

It’s worth noting that on better ground twelve months ago compared to this year’s projected going, only 23.5% of the original Placepot investments were still live going into race two.  By the half way stage, just 1.2% of investors still retained a Placepot interest. Those facts should keep your feet firmly on the (soggy) ground in terms of investment!

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £230.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 7 (Order Of St George) & 5 (Duretto)

Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Caraggio) & 10 (Harry Angel)

Leg 3 (2.40): 2 (Bateel) & 3 (Journey)

Leg 4 (3.15): 8 (Beat The Bank), 2 (Here Comes When) & 12 (Persuasive)

Leg 5 (3.50): 9 (Cracksman), 7 (Brametot) & 2 (Highland Reel)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Firmament), 14 (Eddystone Rock), 12 (Zabeel Prince), 11 (Dark Red & 13 (White Lake)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: It is hardly surprising that Irish trainers have declared runners for this opening event, given that raiders from across the Irish Sea have secured four of the last six events.  That said, last year’s 4/6 market leader ORDER OF ST GEORGE finished out of the frame back in fourth place, though today’s softer ground should (I repeat should) enable Ryan More’s mount to claim a Placepot position at the very least.  We have to take the staying ability of DURETTO on trust but in a race in which too many horses meet each other on a regular basis, Andrew Balding’s raider could be the one to shake up the favourite, albeit Andrew’s 0/28 record here at Ascot this term in a sobering stat to digest. STRADIVARIUS is the clear third choice from my viewpoint.  Out of interest, 26 course winners contest the six races at Ascot today. Just to make the art of picking winners a tad more difficult!

Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via four gold medals and two of the silver variety.

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

2/4—Big Orange (good & good to firm)

2/6—Dartmouth (good to firm & good to soft)

2/5—Duretto (good to soft & soft)

1/3—Order Of St George (soft)

1/6—Skeikhzayedroad (good)

1/2—Mount Moriah (good)

1/1—Stradivarious (good to firm)

 

2.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, with

HARRY ANGEL and CARAVAGGIO heading the chances of four vintage representative by a country mile this time around.  Both horses have won on this type of ground, a factor which also brings LIBRISA BREEZE into the Placepot equation, especially with Dean Ivory have saddled four of his last twelve runners to winning effect, statistics which have brought about 59 points of level stake profit.  That said, the first named pair should take plenty of kicking out of the frame from what we have witnessed thus far, though don’t be at all surprised of Dean’s five-year-old representative leads the older horses home, possibly just ahead of The Tin Man.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/5—Danzeno (good)

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2/5—Librisa Breeze (good to firm & soft)

3/5—The Tin Man (2 x good & good to firm)

1/4—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Caravaggio (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Quiet Reflection (good to soft)

 

2.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the nine renewals thus far, with CORONET and HORSEPLAY expected to lead the juniors home on this occasion.  Proven soft ground winner BATEEL (winner of five of her eight races to date) has been saved for this race for some time by the look of things, with connections of the French raider only having to worry about last year’s highly impressive winner JOURNEY at the business end of proceedings from a win perspective, according to the gospel of yours truly at least.

Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Alyssa (good)

1/2—Journey (good)

1/1—Coronet (good to firm)

 

3.15: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals with junior representatives a shade of odds on to extend the advantage still further before the form book is consulted.  BEAT THE BANK is the (highly) progressive runner in the race given that his last three victories have been gained in Listed, Group 3 and Group 2 company hence the million dollar Question has to be asked this time around; can the Paco Boy gelding extend that sequence to snare a Group 1 event?  We will soon find out whilst not ignoring the each way chance of Andrew Balding’s stable companion HERE COMES WHEN who landed the Sussex Stakes, providing yours truly with one his best results of the year.  Connection and media types suggested that the muddling pace of that race brought about the downfall of favourite RIBCHESTER, though I believe that was only part of the reason for the defeat of the market leader that day.  Indeed, Andrew’s Danehill Dancer gelding held a fine chance as I pointed out on the day and his success has been largely overlooked in terms of the odds available for this event.  This is particularly pleasing from my viewpoint, given the differential of 2/1 and 22/1 according to recent quotes!  The ground will once again be in favour of HERE COMES WHEN who was gobbled up at 33/1 (from an each way perspective) when the original odds were offered to your columnist.  As a winner of her only race at Ascot on soft ground to date, the 28/1 quote this morning about PERSUASIVE is something of an insult to John Gosden’s Dark Angel filly.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 favourites have finished in the frame (seven winners), though I should remind you of the defeat of Hawk Wing back in 2002 at odds of 1/2.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Queen Elizabeth’:

1/3—Breton Rock (soft)

2/3—Ribchester (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Churchill (good to soft)

1/1—Persuasive (soft)

 

3.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals, with four-year-olds having secured three of the other four contests.  No four-year-olds have made the final line up this time around, though five-year-old HIGHLAND REEL is something of a ‘forgotten horse’ here, albeit I admit that faster ground would have been ideal.  That said, Aidan has hinted on more than one occasion that this Galileo representative continues to be underrated and it would not surprise me in the least if it is only the ground which beats Ryan Moore’s mount on this occasion.  John Gosden has no such worries with CRACKSMAN relating to conditions, though his hike back in trip adds interest to proceedings, whilst BRAMETOT will probably prove to be the value for money call from a Placepot perspective, given that British punters tend to ignore such individuals, certainly in terms against their actual win odds.

Favourite factor: Only three favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period. That all said, the two successful market leaders were New Approach and Frankel before last year’s French raider obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Champion Stakes:

1/2—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

2/4—High land Reel (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Barney Roy (good to firm)

 

4.30: Five-year-olds have won all three contests and the quartet of relevant representatives are around the 11/2 mark to land the four-timer before the form book is consulted.  The quartet are listed in order of preference as FIRMAMENT (third in this event twelve months ago), EDDYSTONE ROCK, DARK RED and WHITE LAKE.  The latter named raider represents Roger Varian, whose other runner ZABEEL PRINCE is the obvious danger to the five-year-old contingent.  It’s worth noting that Roger’s pair are his only runners on the card.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished out with the washing via three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Speculative Bid (good to firm)

1/2—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

2/7—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

12 runners—Aidan O’Brien (6/38 – loss of 8 points)

10—John Gosden (5/58 – loss of 18 points)

5—Andrew Balding (0/28)

5—Richard Hannon (5/52 +1)

4—Richard Fahey (2/38 +15)

4—David Simcock (2/24 +11)

3—David Elsworth (1/17 – loss of 5 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (2/24 – loss of 15 points)

2—Clive Cox (1/25 – loss of 19 points)

2—William Haggas (8/45 +6)

2—C Laffron-Parias (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/32 – loss of 6 points)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/24 – loss of 9 points)

2—Roger Varian (4/35 – loss of 20 points)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

81 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £230.50 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Ffos Las: £32.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Market Rasen: £3,750.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Stratford: £383.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhmapton: £11.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced