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Racing Insights, 29th October 2020

Wednesday was another good day for trainer Neil Mulholland at Fakenham with a 10/1 winner and a fourth place (Sky amongst others paid four places) from his two runners. I'm pleased to have highlighted that he'd two chances, but I have to admit to getting them the wrong way round.

Next up is Thursday, where Instant Expert is the free feature and our free races are...

  • 3.15 Lingfield
  • 3.20 Clonmel
  • 3.45 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Clonmel
  • 3.58 Newton Abbot
  • 7.45 Southwell

...and I've decided to take a look at three horses who stand out on our Shortlist report...

...and therefore by definition also score well on Instant Expert, starting with Fanzio in the 2.06 Stratford, an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft (Gd to Soft in places) ground. The winner will get £7,018 and Instant Expert tells us this...

He has won four races from fourteen so far, including 4 from 12 under today's jockey, 3 from 9 going left handed, 3 from 7 when not wearing his hood, 2 from 5 on Good to Soft, 2 from 5 with a tongue tie and 2 from 2 at 2m3½f - 2m4f.

He was a winner at this grade over 2m4f on good to soft at Uttoxeter two starts ago off a mark of 122, but struggled next/last time out off today's mark of 127, but in his defence he was upped in trip to 2m6f and good ground is probably too quick for him. Conditions are more in his favour today, although he is still 5lbs higher than that last win.

He likes to race prominently and that's a tactic that works well in this type of race and he's one of the ones likeliest to set the fractions here, as shown by the pace tab...

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...he's unlikely to have it all his own way, of course, but if he gets out and stays out and runs like I know he can under these conditions, he could go well again.

The next of our trio of possibles, Oh This Is Us goes in the 2.15 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 2, A/W handicap Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth a useful £11,972 to the winner and where this is the view from Instant Expert... 

Plenty of green once again and whilst the distance tab is amber, 6 wins and 4 places from 21 efforts over 7f isn't bad at all, effectively putting him one win away from a whole bank of green and if you add in a 2 from 2 record at 7.5f, he then has a 34.8% strike rate at 7/7.5f.

Overall, he is 13 from 57 and that includes 10 from 22 when sent off in the 13/8 to 6/1 range suggesting the market will be a good barometer for us and he's 9 from 24 going left handed, 4 from 13 on A/W, 4 from 8 on Poly, 3 from 4 carrying 9st 10lbs and has won teo Listed contests, so this shouldn't be beyond him.

He comes here off the back of another Class 2 A/W hcp success on Polytrack (Chelmsford, 39 days ago) and he's up 4lbs to a mark of 105 for that success, but he did actually win here at Lingfield over a mile last year off a mark of 113.

Stalls 5 to 9 look like the best place to be in a 9-runner, 7f contest here and it pays to lead. We've a good draw in 7, but mid-division is his running style and that might not be a negative as such, because the pace heat map...

...suggests nobody wants to lead and it might become a falsely run contest. What pace there is, should all be on the inside fo him, so he should be able to see where he needs to be, if nothing else. He is usually ridden by Tom Marquand or Pat Dobbs, but Ryan Moore (no slouch) takes the ride today and that, too, isn't a negative if you consider that the Geegeez Query Tool tells me that...

...which gives rise to some optimism. Our third and final horse under the microscope takes us back to Stratford for the 1.06 race, where Earth Moor will contest a a tricky looking 7-runner Class 4 Beginners Chase over 2m5f for 4yo+ on Soft (Gd to Soft in places) ground in a bid to win £4,289. Once again, we head straight to Instant Expert, which shows us...

He was a progressive type up to his last outing in March. It took him four bumpers to get off the mark but then won three from five over hurdles plus a runner-up finish.  Of those five runs, he had two wins and a runner-up finish at Class 3 with a 1 from 1 record at this Class 4 level, he was 3 from 3 under today's jockey Richard Johnson and he finished 121 in three soft ground runs.

He's trainer Philip Hobbs' only runner at this meeting and since 2015, when sending just one runner to a meeting, he is 69 from 254 (27.2%) when calling on Richard Johnson to ride, including 6 from 18 (33.3%) here at Stratford.

As for this type of contest, it pays to be up with the pace, but it all looks pretty even to me...

...which might mean it comes down to tactical nous and Tricky Dicky has plenty in his locker, you'd hope. For his own part, the horse is used to wining and did it quite comfortably when last seen. Clear from a good way out, he stayed on well to win by 6.5 lengths and the runner-up reappeared three weeks ago to win a Class 2 contest at Fontwell, whilst the 7th placed horse (40 lengths back) has also won since at Ffos Las on their predictably testing ground.

Summary

Surprisingly for this column, all three horses assessed have real chances here. from a win perspective, Oh This Is Us must be the best chance and 9/2 or even 5/1 as currently available looks fair. The other two runners will need to go well to make the frame, but there's no reason for that not to happen.

Fanzio is currently priced at 12/1 and I was rather hoping he'd be available at 16's or bigger, so I'm going to leave him alone, despite his obvious chances of a place. My odds requirements are because he's on a high mark and the presence of Templehills might stop him from bossing the race early on. Still has chances, but not for me at 12's.

Earth Moor is a tricky one, as he could win, but I doubt that would happen and a 7-runner field means we only get two places for an E/W bet. He makes a chasing debut after an absence of 238 days and he might be too rusty on a day where he's going to have to jump really well. I had him at 3rd or 4th best here and expecting around 6/1 about him, so was surprised to see him available at 8/1 with Bet365, which could offer some value. Not a likely winner, but could grab second if things fall his way.

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.00 Beverley : Saluti @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Disputed lead early, tracked leaders, led over 1f out, driven and joined inside final 100 yards, prevailed on the nod to win by a nose) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...and an 8 yr old gelding who was third LTO 31 days ago. What the above doesn't say is that he was staying on in the closing stages and now steps up in trip, which could help. He also drops down in class today and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

As shown above, trainer Kim Bailey has done well here at Stratford with a small number of runners, whist the yard's chasers are already 13 from 37 (35.1% SR) for 6.6pts (+17.8% ROI) profit this year, including 13/26 (50%) for 17.6pts (+67.7%) at 5/1 or shorter.

The adoption of cheekpieces interests me too, as one of my saved micro-systems says that handicap chasers sent off at Evens to 14/1 wearing headgear during May to September are 99 from 553 (17.9% SR) for 140.1pts (+25.4% ROI) since 2016 after not wearing any headgear on their previous outing and these include the following of some relevance today...

  •  92/512 (18%) for 124.8pts (+24.4%) for males
  • 72/385 (18.7%) for 116pts (+30.2%) in cheekpieces
  • 68/347 (19.6%) for 136.3pts (+39.4%) at 16-45 dslr
  • 50/256 (19.5%) for 93.7pts (+36.6%) at Class 4
  • 38/210 (18.1%) for 88.5pts (+42.3%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 25/128 (19.5%) for 29.2pts (+22.8%) made the frame LTO
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 48.7pts (+43.8%) for 8 yr olds
  • 21/99 (21.2%) for 30pts (+30.3%) finished third LTO
  • 19/97 (19.6%) for 16.5pts (+17%) dropping down a class
  • 17/89 (19.1%) for 37.7pts (+42.4%) during August
  • 15/67 (22.4%) for 45.5pts (+67.9%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.6pts (+40.6%) in 2020

...and whilst I don't want to dilute the sample size too much...Class 3/4 males in cheekpieces at 16-45 dslr are 35 from 154 (22.7% SR) for 76.6pts (+49.8% ROI), including 3/5 (60%) for 18.9pts (+378%) this year alone...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger) as was available at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.35 Lingfield : Alezan @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 (Led, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG

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...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £5,393 to the winner... 

Why?...

As I set my daily reports to generate qualifiers at an A/E of 1.25 or greater and an IV of 1.50 and greater, this runner appeared 6 times in my report this morning, as you can see below...

 

 

 

 

 

 

and to be honest, there's probably enough there to hang a bet on, but rather than just lean heavily on very recent (14/30 day) form, let's take a closer look at trainer Donald McCain's record here at Stratford, shall we?

The above says he has a 14 from 61 (almost 23% SR) record here over the last five years, which is decent enough to retain my interest and spark me to look closer and when I did just that, I found that in hurdles contests since the start of 2016, his runners racing over trips no further than 2m3f were...

...with a win ratio of almost 1 in 3 and an ROI of almost 175% at betfair SP and now that's really interesting/relevant and a far better stat to hang the bet upon. Of those 31 runners...

  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 64.1pts (+305.2%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 10/15 (66.6%) for 70.1pts (+467.3%) in 4-7 runner contests
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 61.77pts (+325.1%) during June to September
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.89pts (+117%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 5/20 (25%) for 20.05pts (+100.2%) over this 2m½f C&D
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 9.54pts (+79.5%) off a mark (OR) of 120 or higher
  • 4/10 (40%) for 8.71pts (+87.1%) with jockey Brian Hughes
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 28.14pts (+312.6%) at Class 3
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.42pts (+280.2%) with female runners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 21.8pts (+436%) in female only races

...and the most exciting thing for me from stats perspective is that from the above, those returning from an 11-45 day break to run in a 4-7 runner contest during June to September are 9 from 9 (100% SR) for 71.77pts (+797.5% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs and Bet365 were a half point bigger) at 8.15 am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!