Tag Archive for: Stratford racecourse

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/08/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would certainly be of interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.40 Musselburgh
  • 2.55 Ripon
  • 3.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Bellewstown

...but to be honest, the days racing is really pooor and I think I'm actually going to swerve the whole lot and just look at the day's highest-rated race.

OK, so that's going to be the 6.25 Stratford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over almost 2m3½f on good/good to firm ground. It's not an ideal race to cover, but it's the best on the day and here's the card...

AL ZARAQAAN won four chases on the bounce last summer and won again at Cartmel back in May. Well beaten in two runs since finishing 12th of 13 and 13th of 16, but does drop in class/trip today.

EL BORRACHO last won just over a year ago at Bangor and hasn't tackled a fence since finishing last of 11 back at the same track in May. Since then he has been well beaten in a 2m Flat race and a 2m4f hurdle, but was 3rd of 9 over 1m6f at Haydock earlier this month.

LA DOMANIALE was a course and distance winner here just over two years ago and has only raced seven times since. She won at Aintree in May 2023 and was 3rd of 7 here over C&D a year ago before ending the season as a runner-up at Worcester. her seasonal return saw her just 15th of 16 at Market Rasen, but she's down in class/trip here.

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD won a 2m2f chase at Kempton back in April for a second success inside four outings and was a Kempton runner-up next time out, but has been 6th of 8 and 9th of 13 in two runs since, so much will depend which version of this useful chaser turns up.

ROTTEN ROW had a run of eight defeats between chase wins at Tramore in August 2023 and here at Stratford over 2m4½f in early June on his penultimate outing. Subsequently beaten by nine lengths as fourth home of eleven at Cartmel, a current mark of 118 might be a tad too high for him as he steps up two classes.

GREY SKIES won back to back chases at Sedgefield and Perth in March/April 2023, but has failed to win any of eleven starts since, despite four runner-up finishes and is up in class after a 54 length defeat at Bangor last time out. He has, however, had wind surgery since that run and also wears a tongue-tie for the first time today.

The two-year Instant Expert overview doesn't really push me in any direction, but it does raise queries about bottom weight Grey Skies...

...pretty self-explanatory stuff, of course. Grey Skies doesn't seem suited by the going, El Borracho has the worst Class 2 record, Rotten Row would probably prefer a different trip and he's 7lbs higher than his last win. He has made the frame on one of those three distance defeats and Grey Skies has made the frame twice on this going, but El Borracho is still struggling for class, according to the place stats...

Small field chases over this kind of trip here at Stratford have favoured horses willing to get n with things and set the tempo, which might well be El Borracho's saving grace if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...but he's likely to have company from Onemorefortheroad here.

Summary

Not much to discuss here to be honest, but my thoughts are that Rotten Row is probably the least poor of a bad bunch running in what looks a really poor race for a Class 2 handicap. My issue with Rotten Row, though, is that he's currently (4.45pm Monday) only a 2/1 shot and there's no value there for me. The other five were bracketed in the 9/2 to 13/2 range, so no scope for an E/W bet just yet and my advice here would be to not have a bet.

If I was to pick one, it'd be a tentative nudge towards Grey Skies after a wind op and a drop in trip or maybe a very small E/W punt on current 13/2 outsider El Borracho (based on the pace angle) if he was to drift a little further.

 



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/06/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...which is very heavily Ascot-oriented, of course. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.45 Ascot
  • 4.10 Catterick
  • 6.40 Beverley
  • 8.45 Beverley

The first of our free races also has three runners on The Shortlist, but I'm not really into 17-runner sprints, so I think we'll take the third name on The Shortlist, Get Sky High and assess the 3.55 Stratford, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip of 2m 145yds (after a 75yd rail movement) on good ground...

Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis were the 3/1 co-favourites when I started looking at this race and they were the three that I thought would fill the places. King Otis won last time out and is two from three, whilst sole mare Get Sky High comes here seeking a hat-trick. Ilanz was a runner-up last time around and Donnie Azoff finished third on his last run, but that was 229 days ago and he might need the run.

Vision des Flos is the only one without a win in five, having suffered eight defeats on the bounce and he now might also need a run after a 208-day absence and you could say the same about As Tears Go By as he makes a yard debut after 263 days off track. Forever William also debuts for his new yard, whilst featured runner, Get Sky High, runs in a handicap for just the second time and she steps up a class here, as does King Otis, whilst Donnie Azoff is up two classes.

All nine have won over a similar trip to this one, but only Donnie Azoff has scored over course and distance, although Get Sky High has won a bumper here over today's trip...

Recent form suggests that Manor Park struggles to win on good ground or at Class 3, whilst Taleit Easy has struggled at the trip. Donnie Azoff has a line of green off a small sample size with Get Sky High and King Otis catching the eye at going/trip respectively.

The place stats from those races above say that most of them should be at home under these conditions...

...with Donnie Azoff strengthening his case for making the frame whilst Ilanz looks very strong too. Past previous similar races here at Stratford have rewarded those willing to set the pace...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...could be very good news for Get Sky High who has led in three of  his last four outings.

Summary

At the start of my analysis, I agreed with the bookies that Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis would be the three to focus upon and none of their six rivals have done enough above to throw me off that track, but I do think that King Otis might be the slightly weaker of the three.

Ilanz edged it on Instant Expert and Get Sky High had it on pace, but if pushed to choose between the two, I'd narrowly have ti side with Ilanz.

As of 6.15pn, you could still get 3/1 for all three runners and if one was to slip up, then Donnie Azoff might be a viable E/W pick at 11/1.



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Racing Insights, Friday 31/05/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 4.15 Chepstow
  • 5.20 Tramore
  • 7.35 Stratford
  • 8.00 Down Royal
  • 8.05 Stratford

...the best of which is clearly the Epsom race, but only five are set to go to post, so I think I'll take a look at the 7.35 Stratford, an 8-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ Hunters Chase over a left-handed 3m3½f on good to soft ground...

What A Glance won last time out and has had five top 2 finishes in a row, as has Go On Chez who comes here seeking a hat-trick, as does Fairly Famous who has won three of his last five. All eight have won at least one of their last five outings and all bar Law of Gold (Pulled Up) made the frame on their last run.

Most of these ran (at Cheltenham) four weeks ago and Go on Chez also ran earlier this month, but Annamix is the longest rested at 50 days and he's the only one who raced at Class 2 last time around, as the other seven are all up two classes today.

Course and/or distance wins are at a premium for this field, but Law of Gold bucks that trend, having scored over track and trip here when winning this very race three years ago, when offiically rated 12lbs worse than today. It's not a handicap, of course, they'll all carry 12st, but based on their official ratings the 139-rated Annamix is 2lbs better off than Fairly Famous and some 24lbs better than Lift Me Up.

Instant Expert's overview of the field's past endeavours under similar circumstances looks like this...

...and if truth be told, we're not gleaning much from the win side of things here, but we do have more to work with from the place data. From the win stats I have concerns about D'jango at the trip as he seems better suited to 2m7f/3m and his place record at this type of trip is the worst in the field, so I'd probably rule him out right here. Premier Magic has only made the frame once in four attempts in this grade and whilst that's a small sample size, others look better suited to this level than he, so I'm taking him out here too.

This leaves me with just six to consider, from which Annamix and Go On Chez make most appeal from the data above.

With regards to pace, there's not a huge advantage to any particular running style, although those racing in mid-division have an extraordinarily poor return whereas from a place perspective, the onus is clearly to find a front runner...

...so we need to look back at each runner's last few races, which look like this...

...and this is sadly not too helpful either with it looking like being a falsely-run race, but that should play into the hands of the better horses. It looks like I've picked a poor/difficult race here to analyse despite it being a Class 2 affair. In these cases, I tend to refer back to the racecard for some pointers.

Summary

Fairly short piece today due to the lack of viable data, so I'm going back to square one to summarise from the racecard.

Annamix is my pick today, he has won two of his last four and three of six since last Easter. He's the only one not stepping up in class and ran really well to finish third in the Foxhunters at Aintree behind Its On The Line, whose recent form reads 111211. Annamix scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and he's the highest-rated of all the runners, so is technically best off at the weights. He also seems flexible on pace based on his last four runs, so (without total conviction, it must be said), it would be Annamix for me here.

Best of the rest might well be Go On Chez who comes here on a hat-trick, having a 2 from 2 record in Hunter Chases and a form line of 1222211 since being pulled up at Cheltenham in October 2022 and I fancy him to just edge out the other LTO winner Fairly Famous, who is rated at just 2lbs worse than Annamix.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 24/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 York
  • 2.15 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Killarney
  • 7.40 Killarney
  • 7.55 Leopardstown
  • 8.35 Chelmsford

Our three UK free races are a Class 1 affair for 2 yr old fillies and a pair of Class 6 contests; none of which really appeal to me, so I'm done here today.

Only joking! I've decided to find an alternative race to look at from both a quality and an Instant Expert perspective and I've fell upon the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner (shame there's not 8, of course), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase, over a left-handed 2m3½f on good ground...

Presentandcounting won last time out and is two from three, but all seven have at least one win from their last five outings. The LTO winner is, however, up one class here, as is bottom-weight Sea Prince, whilst top-weight Hang In There, Tardree and sole mare La Domaniale all raced at Class 1 last time, as they finished 3rd, 6th and 9th in the 14-runner Summer Plate at Market Rasen, where Courtland (who won for us on Tuesday) was the runner-up.

That was 33 days ago and the entire field has raced in the last 23 to 53 days, they've also all won here at Stratford before with Presentandcounting, La Domaniale and Cracking Destiny being former course and distance winners. Hang In There and Tardree have won over a similar trip elsewhere.

Jockey Joe Anderson takes 5lbs off Emma Lavelle's top-weighted Hang In There, which should help his cause allied with that drop in class after being placed at Class 1 and Instant Expert says he's now 4lbs lower than his last winning mark...

Plenty of positives there, although Noahthirtytwored is better over hurdles than fences so far, but that 1 in 5 on good ground is tempered by him making the frame in 2 of the 4 defeats. Presentandcounting's two Class 2 chases have seen him finish 6th and 9th, but he was prolific at Class 3, making the frame in 8 of 9 attempts, winning 6 times, whereas Sea Prince's 1 from 7 on good ground represents his whole chasing career and on that basis alone, I'm ruling him out here, whilst I think the top three look strongest right now.

In similar past contests, the further forward a horse ahs raced, the better has been the chances of winning the race...

...but as long as you're not held-up, there's every chance of making the frame without leading...

If we look at the field's last few outings...

...then you'd probably want to consider the top four for a likely winner and also worry about Noahthirtytwored's chances of making the frame.

Summary

From Instant Expert I liked Hang In There, Presentandcounting and La Dominiale, whilst the pace stats pointed towards Tardree, Hang In There, Presentandcounting and Sea Prince with Hang In There and Presentandcounting scoring well on both counts. The latter is a former course and distance winner who has finished 121 in his last three, but is up in class and weight after demolishing a 3-runner contest at Perth recently, sauntering home by 38 lengths. The former didn't win last time out but ran a really good race to finish third in the Class 1 Summer Plate, just one place behind Courtland who won for us on Tuesday.

I suspect there'll be little between the pair, but if pushed for a selection, I think I prefer the class dropping 4/1 Hang In There off a mark lower than his last win, but the 5/2 fav Presentandcounting shouldn't be too far away.

Only seven go to post after the withdrawal of Vision des Flos, so we only get two places at the bookies, although Coral are paying four places. If you can place bets with them, then 17/2 E/W about the mare La Dominiale could well work.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 03/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Galway
  • 5.05 Galway
  • 6.10 Galway
  • 6.40 Newcastle
  • 8.15 Newcastle

As most of you, I don't really do Irish racing and those two Newcastle races aren't great, but as I was flicking through the cards with the daily feature, Instant Expert, in mind, I spotted this...

Now, I don't know what kind of quality we're dealing with here, but it looks competitive with plenty of runners having fared well under expected conditions, so I'm going to be looking at the 5.25 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Only Mr Yeats has failed to win any of his last three outings, but he has made the frame in all three. Scarpia won last time out and Gentleman Valley has won each of his last three. In fact I backed him via this column last time out!

He's up 6lbs now to a career-high mark of 123, but he hasn't stepped up in class, unlike the bottom three on the card, Hoganville, Mr Yeats and Hunting Percival, who all step up from Class 4 despite not winning last time out. The latter of that trio is a bit hit and miss wit a win and two runner-up finishes from his last six runs, but was pulled up in the other three, so he's clearly unreliable.

He has, however, won here at Stratford in the past (in a 2m7f hurdle), whilst Isthebaropen (great question!) won a 2m6½f hurdle here too. Hoganville and Mr Yeats have both won at a similar trip to this one, whilst top weight Shantou Express is the only previous course and distance winner, achieved two starts ago and he has also scored here over 3m3f, so track/trip shouldn't pose any issues.

Isthebaropen could be excused for needing a run after a break of over nine months since being pulled up at Aintree and it's ten months since he last completed a race and I'd be reluctant to back him until I'd seen him have a run. The others have all raced in the last seven weeks with Hunting Percival sighted as recently as Monday when pulled up over fences at Newton Abbot. he did, however, win her over 2m7f on his last effort over hurdles a month ago and this is reflected in that Instant Expert graphic I opened with, that I've reproduced below...

The entire filed are 3-6lbs higher than their last winning marks, so none gain any real advantage there and the above data doesn't really cause me any grounds for concern, although Mr Yeats and Scarpia do look a little weaker than the others on that evidence, but there's not a great deal in it. A trip in excess of three and a quarter miles on ground softer than good might take some getting though and there does appear to be a wide range of tactics employed by this field in recent outings...

If the above is anything to go by, then it could well be an early tussle for the lead between Shantou Express, Scarpia and Hoganville, whilst the returning Isthebaropen looks content to bide his time. The issue there, of course, is that he becomes too far off the pace and is too rusty after his lay-off to make up the ground on a track that hasn't been kind to hold-up types...

At this point, I think that's enough negatives about Isthebaropen and he now joins Hunting Percival in the discard list, leaving five in with a shout.

Summary

Realistically, any of the five I've got left in could go on and win this, but the way that Gentleman Valley won so easily at Worcester last time out makes me think he's still in front of the handicapper. He might well open up too short for me to back, but if I could get 5/2, I'd be pretty happy in such a competitive race. As for who completes the forecast, you really could make a case for any of the other four runners , so I'm going to refer back to our feature of the day, Instant Expert, to look at the place stats...

...and tentatively suggest Mr Yeats marginally ahead of Scarpia, who might well relish the step up in trip. Both Bet365 and SkyBet will pay three places when they open up, so fingers crossed that one of this latter pair are long enough for a small E/W bet.

PS Gentleman Valley was readily available at 5/2 just after 4pm when i took 8/1 E/W about Mr Yeats with bet365.



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Racing Insights, Monday 13/03/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.05 Stratford
  • 2.40 Stratford
  • 4.50 Thurles
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

And as that trio contains a Juvenile Hurdle, an Irish bumper and an A/W novice event, I think I'll look at the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase of 17 fences over a left handed 2m7½f (after an extra furlong for rail adjustments) on soft ground that is better in places...

GO STEADY has made the frame in half of his 18 chase outings, going on to win a very creditable six times (all on good to soft or 'worse'). He now drops in class and weight after finishing in mid-division at Kempton 16 days ago and has a win and a place from his last two runs at this grade. Gets on well with this jockey and shouldn't be bothered by underfoot conditions.

WHYDAH GALLY was a useful hurdler last season finishing 321F1 at Classes 3 & 4, but has failed to make much impact this season since being asked to jump fences. He was pulled up 4 out at Taunton at the end of last year in a race sandwiched by defeats of 27 and 20 lengths. Not sure he gets the trip over fences either.

NATIVE ROBIN is, at 13yo, surely in the twilight of a decent enough career that has seen him win 11 of 36 over fences, but since winning by just over a length in a Class 3, 2m4½f chase at Wincanton 13 months ago, has gone down by 19, 40, 33, 38 and 28 lengths in five successive defeats since and he's never raced as far as he'll asked to here, but does drop in class.

RAKHINE STATE is a late convert to chasing, as this 10yr old only tackled a fence for the first time when 3rd of 11 over 2m5f at Southwell at the end of November, which was a good effort considering he'd been off for 502 days. He followed that up with another third place finish next/last time out 66 days ago, but he did halve the margin of defeat from 20L to 10L, but would need to improve further to land a chase win at the third time of asking and he's another who has never gone this far.

RESERVE TANK started his chasing career by finishing 212 in three Class 1 (Lst/Gr2/Gr2) Novice events in Oct/Nov 2019, but has results of PFPPP47 since, which is hardly inspiring. Interspersed amongst those seven chase failures, he ahs also raced eleven times over hurdles, making the frame just once in a run of form reading 5PP528P6433, making one place and eight incomplete runs from eighteen starts. I suspect that first-time blinkers won't work a miracle here.

ANIMAL got off the mark over fences at the third attempt, landing a 2m6f soft ground affair at Fakenham on New Year's Day 2022 and despite a run of five defeats since (36337), he's still 3lbs higher than that win and his record higher than Class 5 is lamentable.

ICAQUE DE L'ISLE was first and third in back to back six-runner 2m2f chases at Aix-Les-Bains in June/July of last year, but has failed to score in three attempts since crossing the channel. He was a well beaten (41 lengths) 3rd of 5 over a soft ground 3m at Ffos Las in early November, but got to within 10 lengths of the winner on Boxing Day, when 2nd of 8 over 2m4f at Huntingdon (gd to soft) and got closer still next/last time out at Hereford five weeks ago, when beaten by 4.5 lengths over 2m5f on good ground. Eased a pound here and getting weight all round, he is improving but the going and the trip are a concern.

Instant Expert shows the field's record in similar conditions, but based on the above, I'm not expecting much positivity...

Short of his third placed finish here on his only previous visit to Stratford, Go Steady is probably the eyecatcher, although the sadly out of form veteran Native Robin does have some good numbers from his past. Elsewhere there are some tales of woe for Animal at this level and on this going and there's far too many red blocks for my liking, perhaps the place stats will look better?

Well, Go Steady and Native Robin are still very strong and you can start to make a case for both Animal and Icaque de L'isle to make the frame, but they've got improvement to make here. The feature of the day is PACE, of course and our pace analyser tells us that in similar races to this, leaders have been hauled in by the pack and have generally been defeated, whilst hold-up horses have struggled to make ground up...

...suggesting an average pace score in the 2.00 to 3.00 region might well be advantageous. If wee look at this field's most recent efforts...

...it looks like Native Robin will be the one setting the pace with most of the field keeping in touch not too far away ready to engulf him in the closing stages. That's likely to be his downfall and it's also likely to be tough for the likes of Rakhine State and Animal from the back.

Summary

Quite simply, I like Go Steady here. A very competent chaser down in class and weight, no issues with the ground or the trip and gets on well with today's rider and the 9/2 available at 6.30pm on Sunday was a bit of a pleasant surprise.

Elsewhere, pace is likely to be the undoing of Native Robin, Rakhine State and Animal and neither are in great form anyway, leaving Whydah Gally, Icaque de l'isle and Reserve Tank as the challengers for second spot. I have doubts about Whydah Gally getting the trip and although unexposed over fences, hasn't got close to winning whilst Reserve Tank is in a horrible run of form.

All of which almost be default leads us to the French 5yr old Icaque de l'isle, who has yet to win in the UK but is slowly improving. I think he'll go well here if getting the trip and I've no doubts he's going to win races, but might have to settle for silver here, although the bookies disagree with me and have him as the fav at prices around the 2/1 mark, which seem a little skinny.



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