Posts

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

Your first 30 days for just £1

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

6.30 Windsor : Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 5, 2m3f Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ on Good ground, worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old comes here in good nick, having finished 323231 since returning from a 216-day absence in May this year. She was last seen 12 days ago, winning comfortably by 6 lengths here over course and distance staying on well under today's jockey Marc Goldstein.

She's trained by Shaun Lycett, whose LTO winners are 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 7pts (+25% ROI) profit since the start of 2014 and these include...

  • at odds of 4/1 and shorter : 8/13 (61.5%) for 22pts (+169%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.85pts (+142.8%)
  • NH runners : 4/8 (50%) for 8.19pts (+102.4%)
  • hurdlers : 3/6 (50%) for 6.68pts (+111.3%)
  • and hurdlers at 4/1 & shorter are 3/3 (100%) for 9.68pts (+322.7%)

Scotsbrook Night was sired by the late (and great IMO) Midnight Legend (regular/long-term readers will recall my liking for ML offspring), whose "daughters" are 37/157 (23.6% SR) for 131.1pts (+83.5% ROI) in handicap hurdles over trips shorter than 2.5 miles since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those aged 5 to 8 are 37/141 (26.2%) for 147.1pts (+104.3%)
  • at Class 3 to 5 : 36/140 (25.7%) for 135.1pts (+96.5%)
  • and those aged 5 to 8 running at Class 3 to 5 are 36/124 (29%) for 151.1pts (+121.9%)

And finally/more generally, it's worth noting that in UK handicap hurdles since the start of 2013, female runners who won a novice hurdle LTO 11 to 90 days earlier are 39/193 (20.2% SR) for 63.7pts (+33% ROI) with those returning to the same course and distance as that LTO success winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 16.1pts (+100.4%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power on opening show at 5.15pm on Monday evening. SkyBet also opened up (5.30pm) at 10/3 BOG too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Isabella @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Led, driven and hard pressed from over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on when narrowly headed inside final furlong, just held)

We continue with Tuesday's...

8.00 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Firm ground worth £5588 to the winner... 

Why?

After falling just short yesterday (pace prediction spot on, but she just couldn't see it out), today's cards are not what I wanted to face looking for a winner, as it's possibly the worst day's racing I've seen for a while. That said, every race has a winner and I expect this 7yr old gelding to do just that.

I'm going to keep it simple, though and start with the horse himself. A runner-up on each of his last two starts, firstly over 2m1.5f and then over 2m4.5f twelve days ago, he stayed on well both times but looked like he needs even further, so an extra 350 yards or so could well make all the difference today.

He's trained by Donald McCain, who admittedly hasn't had as many winners of late as he'd have liked (a feeling I'm very familiar with!), but with 60% of his 20 runners making the frame over the last fortnight, the signs are there that both the camp is in good nick and better times are around the corner.

I should at this point draw the correlation between today's type of contest and Donald's recent record, because since the start of 2016, you could blindly back his Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdlers over trips of 2m3,5f to 2m7f and make a tidy profit. More specifically : 37 winners from 215 (17.2% SR) have generated level stakes profit of 80.1pts (+37.3% ROI) from a simple blind "bet and forget" approach.

And of those 215 runners, those reappearing after a rest of just 11 to 20 days are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 43.9pts (+102% ROI).

And now onto his record here at Stratford, which is more than decent in that same 2016 to 2018 timeframe, but he simply doesn't send many here! That said, those that have come have won 7 of 24 (29.2% SR) for 38.5pts (+160.5% ROI) profit, so they're more than worth a second glance, especially as...

  • hurdlers are 4/16 (25%) for 18pts (+112.7%)
  • Class 4 runners are 4/14 (28.6%) for 27.8pts (+198.9%)
  • using a claiming jockey = 4/12 (33.3%) for 31.34pts (+261.2%)
  • in the June to September summer jumps period : 5/9 (55.6%) for 46.4pts (+515.3%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/2 : 4/6 966.6%) for 8.5pts (+141.7%)
  • those last seen 10-25 days ago are 3/5 (60%) for 24.71pts (+494.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 2/4 (50%) for 3.15pts (+78.75%)
  • those beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 2/2 (100%) for 5.15pts (+257.5%)
  • and Harry Stock has ridden one winner from two for 2.33pts profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from at least a half dozen firms at 5.30pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.45 Ayr : Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, driven when challenged from over 1f out, held on gamely to win by a shorthead)

We now press on with Tuesday's...

2.55 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 4 Flat  Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground worth £7018 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar Class 4 handicap chase over just half a furlong shorter 14 days ago on his first crack at a non-novice Handicap Chase. Jockey Daniel Sansom retains the ride from that day and is already 2 from 3 on this horse.

Trainer Seamus Mullins' horses are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 12 from 64 (18.75% SR) for 21.05pts (+32.9% ROI). Both of these details are useful pointers, but this horse became of real interest to me when he was flagged up as a qualifier of one my (many) stored micro-systems, namely...

...2013-18 / UK Class 3-4 Handicap Chases / shorter than 3.5 miles / going contains the word "good" : males who won a Hcp Chase LTO 4-20 days earlier are 216/823 (26.3% SR) for 124pts (+15.1% ROI), including...

  • at odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 158/654 (24.2%) for 157.7pts (+24.1%)
  • 1-2 previous hcp chase wins : 162/545 (29.7%) for 119.4pts (+21.9%)
  • 6-15 days since LTO win : 144/483 (29.8%) for 115.7pts (+23.9%)
  • 1-5 previous hcp chase runs : 109/379 (28.8%) for 55.2pts (+14.6%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 13/47 (27.7%) for 13.8pts (+29.3%)

...from which, those with 1-2 previous hcp chase wins from 1-5 previous hcp chase runs priced at 6/4 to 10/1 running 6 to 15 days after the LTO win are 51/154 (33.1% SR) for 109.6pts (+71.2% ROI) with 2018 showing 4 winners from 7 (57.1%) for 18.9pts (+269.7%) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on I See You Well @ 5/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2017

Friday's Result :

3.15 Ascot : Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 : Held up in last pair in touch, switched towards stands side rail and headway under pressure inside final 2f, went 2nd when ridden over 1f out, stayed on to press winner inside final furlong, just held by a neck...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Astrum @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7yr old looked like returning to something approaching his best form when staying on well at Hexham last time out.

He finished as a runner-up over 2m 0.5f on that occasion, just four days ago and with him seeming to have plenty left in the tank, the extra 2.5f today might just be the key to a first win since landing a course and distance success here in April, carrying 3lbs more than today.

Stat-wise, trainer Phil Middleton + handicap hurdlers + odds of 9/4 to 11/1 = 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 36pts (+33.9% ROI) since the start of 2011 and these runners include...

  • at trips of 2m to 2m 6.5f : 18/87 (20.7%) for 44.9pts (+51.6%)
  • on Good ground : 13/49 (26.5%) for 46pts (+93.9%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 7/28 (25%) for 15.2pts (+54.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/27 (22.2%) for 21pts (+77.9%)
  • ridden by a 3lb claimer : 3/15 (20%) for 6.45pts (+43%)
  • and here at Stratford : 5/12 (41.7%) for 24.6pts (+205.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Astrum @ 7/2 BOG, which was widely available at 7.25pm on Friday, so the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2017

Monday's Result :

2.00 Pontefract : Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 In touch on inside headway over 1f out, ridden to challenge and every chance inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a neck.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.20 Stratford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

No Such Number4/1 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding has won his last four contests, all under today's jockey Dale Irving, all over fences going left handed on good ground wearing a tongue tie and cheek pieces, so despite another rise in the weights, conditions are well suited for him.

Male handicappers aged 5 to 10 running off a mark of 100 to 125 who won a novice chase last time out in the previous 45 days are 143/588 (24.3% SR) for 98.2pts (+16.7% ROI), including...

  • those rated (OR) 109-121 are 85/325 (26.2%) for 87.4pts (+26.9%)
  • over trips of 2.5m to 3m : 69/311 (22.2%) for 63.9pts (+20.5%)
  • those who last ran 6 to 20 days earlier : 82/277 (29.6%) for 70.1pts (+25.3%)
  • on Good ground : 55/210 (26.2%) for 60.6pts (+28.9%)
  • in the May-July period : 43/134 (32.1%) for 91.6pts (+68.4%)
  • and here at Stratford : 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.9pts (+131.2%)

And in addition to the above, since the start of 2013, trainer Maurice Barnes' handicappers who won LTO are 13/50 (26% SR) for 52.8pts (+105.6% ROI), from which...

  • chasers are 10/32 (31.3%) for 54.3pts (+169.8%)
  • 8-11 yr olds are 9/30 (30%) for 57.7pts (+192.3%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 9/26 (34.6%) for 36pts (+138.5%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 4/1 : 8/17 (47.1%) for 11pts (+64.5%)
  • and those ridden by Dale Irving are 3/4 (75%) for 106.3pts (+265.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on No Such Number @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.20 Stratford...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2017

Monday's Result :

8.00 Nottingham : Indigo Princess @ 5/2 BOG 9th at 9/2 Raced wide in touch, ridden 3f out, weakened over 1f out

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.05 Stratford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Our Three Sons @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding comes here looking for a hat-trick of wins under today's jockey, having won here over course and distance two starts ago, before a 5 length success at Kempton LTO 50 days ago.

This one cropped up on a couple of my micros today, so here's (briefly!) why I'm backing him...

Since the start of 2012, male hcp hurdlers who won LTO by 4 lengths or more 3 to 60 days ago are 369/1454 (25.4% SR) for 223.5pts (+15.4% ROI) backed blindly, from which...

  • Class 4 = 149/476 (31.3%) for 92pts (+19.3%)
  • 6 yr olds = 97/381 (25.5%) for 87pts (+22.8%)
  • at Stratford = 11/30 (36.7%) for 36.8pts (+122.6%)

And on top of the above, handicap hurdlers who won LTO and are now returning to the scene of a previous course and distance win are 284/1596 (17.8% SR) for 200.6pts (+12.6% ROI) at odds of 11/4 and longer since 2008, with 6 yr olds winning 76 of 399 (19.1%) for 82.1pts (+20.6%)

...for...a 1pt win bet on Our Three Sons4/1 BOG which was available from both Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.05 Goodwood : Dubka @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 11/4 Tracked leaders, weakened 2f out

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Stratford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Yorkist11/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner in a Class 2 contest just after Christmas 2016 and since then hasn't won, but has been there or there abouts, finishing 344 in three efforts since, but it's important to note that those races were at Class 2, Gr 3 and Listed class respectively, so the drop to Class 3 should see him in a better light.

His trainer, Dan Skelton, has a good record with 7 to 9 yr old handicap chasers priced at 6/4 to 7/1 with 35 winners from 131 (23.2% SR) and profits of 18.5pts at an ROI of 12.2%. And in respect of today's race, those 131 runners are...

  • 34/147 (23.1%) from his male runners for 18.35pts (+12.5%)
  • 28/113 (24.8%) for 29.6pts (+26.2%) when ridden by Harry Skelton
  • 22/71 (312%) for 41.3pts (+58.2%) on Good ground
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 8.13pts (+16.6%) at Class 3
  • and 2/10 (20%) for 2.55pts (+25.5%) here at Stratford.

Further confidence is gained by discovering that handicap chasers by Urban Ocean are 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 23.7pts (+55.1% ROI) since the start of 2015...

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Yorkist11/2 BOG which was on offer from Bet365, Betfair Sports, BetVictor & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.05 Goodwood : Dubka @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 11/4 Tracked leaders, weakened 2f out

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Stratford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Yorkist11/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner in a Class 2 contest just after Christmas 2016 and since then hasn't won, but has been there or there abouts, finishing 344 in three efforts since, but it's important to note that those races were at Class 2, Gr 3 and Listed class respectively, so the drop to Class 3 should see him in a better light.

His trainer, Dan Skelton, has a good record with 7 to 9 yr old handicap chasers priced at 6/4 to 7/1 with 35 winners from 131 (23.2% SR) and profits of 18.5pts at an ROI of 12.2%. And in respect of today's race, those 131 runners are...

  • 34/147 (23.1%) from his male runners for 18.35pts (+12.5%)
  • 28/113 (24.8%) for 29.6pts (+26.2%) when ridden by Harry Skelton
  • 22/71 (312%) for 41.3pts (+58.2%) on Good ground
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 8.13pts (+16.6%) at Class 3
  • and 2/10 (20%) for 2.55pts (+25.5%) here at Stratford.

Further confidence is gained by discovering that handicap chasers by Urban Ocean are 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 23.7pts (+55.1% ROI) since the start of 2015...

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Yorkist11/2 BOG which was on offer from Bet365, Betfair Sports, BetVictor & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.30 Chelmsford : Unsuspected Girl @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Slowly away, in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.25 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG

Why?

He's better known as a chaser, but got off the mark over hurdles last time out and has an overall record of 2 wins from 4 over today's trip. He's 4/15 on good/good to soft ground and has won twice under today's jockey, Leighton Aspell and has 3 wins from 8 in fields of 7 runners or fewer.

He might well have been off the track for 191 days, but he did win at this time of year in 2014 after a lay-off of 177 days, also under Leighton Aspell and also his only other run in the month of October, so we does have a precedent.

He's trained by Lucy Wadham, whose NH runners competing over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f are 55/313 (17.06% SR) for 208.1pts (+66.5% ROI) profit since 2010, of which...

  • those racing at 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs are 44/241 (18.3%) for 124.8pts (+51.8%)
  • those running in non-handicap races are 33/186 (17.7%) for 189.6pts (+101.9%)
  • and those fulfilling both the above criteria are 25/147 (17%) for 116.7pts (+79.4%)

We can then take a closer look at those 147 non-handicappers racing over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f and if we do that, we find that...

  • Leighton Aspell has 11 winners from 73 (15.1%) for 90.9pts (+124.6%)
  • runners in 2015/16 are 12/42 (28.6%) for 114.5pts (+272.5%)
  • and Leighton Aspell is 6/21 (28.6%) for 86.2pts (+410.3%) in 2015/16.

Artifice Sivola is also Lucy's only runner at the meeting and such solo representatives are 134/883 (15.2% SR) for 310.1pts (+35.1% ROI) since 2010, with the following of interest/relevance today...

  • those travelling just 45 to 115 miles from her Newmarket base are 59/336 (17.6%) for 160.5pts (+47.8%)
  • non-handicap races = 50/318 (15.7%) for 224.1pts (+70.5%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f : 40/236 (17%) for 109pts (+46.2%)
  • ridden by Leighton Aspell : 33/216 (15.3%) for 58.7pts (+27.2%)
  • and Class 3 runners are 24/168 (14.3%) for 98.7pts (+58.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 (my preference), Betbright, Betfair Sports, Hills and SkyBet at 5.30pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Stratford.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2016

Tuesday's Result :

6.20 Newbury : Alizoom @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Took keen hold, held up in rear, headway 2f out, soon squeezed through chasing leading pair over 1f out, ridden and kept on same pace inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

6.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossetti at 11/4 BOG

Why?

(i) The trainer...

Neil Mulholland is 7/41 (17.1% SR) for 197.8pts (+482.5% ROI) here at Stratford since 2013 (the high profits indicative of the difference between Betfair SP and ISP!), and of those 41 runners...

  • males are 6/31 (19.4%) for 190.7pts (+615.1%)
  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 194.3pts (+777.2%)
  • at this 2m 0.5f trip : 6/19 (31.6%) for 217.4pts (+124.2%)
  • and handicap hurdlers over today's 2m 0.5f trip are 3/5 (60% SR) for 6.21pts (+124.2%)

(ii) The jockey...

Noel Fehily also has a decent record here at this venue and since 2009, his figures show that he has achieved the following...

  • 10/56 (17.9%) for 22.5pts (+40.1%) in handicaps
  • 11/52 (21.2%) for 12.6pts (+24.2%) over hurdles
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 24.8pts (+95.4%) in handicap hurdles
  • 6/18  (33.3%) for 32.8pts (+182.2%) in hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 19.4pts (+176.2%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.4pts (+237.6%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f, including the success of Rossetti last time out.

(iii) And the horse?

Three wins from 19 in a reasonable but not earth shattering Flat career, before a break of almost two years, a change of yard and a reappearance three months ago as a hurdler.

A runner-up finish on his hurdling debut at Southwell has been followed by to more efforts to date, both here at Stratford, both over this trip and both were successful, initially at Class 4 and then a facile 11 lengths victory at Class 3 last time out, 27 days ago, when he really could have won by any margin

Of interest from that last win is the fact that the well beaten runner-up, only went down by half a length in a Class 2 race at Perth on Saturday off a mark of 125, which suggests that 134 might not be beyond our boy today.

All three of his NH runs have been in the hood he sports again today and Noel Fehily (1/1 on the horse) retains the ride from last time.

AND... since 2012, 5 to 9 yr old male handicap hurdlers with at least one prior course and distance win to their name and who were also winners LTO are 158 from 671 (23.6% SR) for 160.8pts (+24% ROI), including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 91/375 (24.3%) for 181pts (+48.3%)
  • those who won by 3 to 15 lengths LTO are 76/261 (29.1%) for 78.4pts (+30%)
  • Class 3 runners are 43/153 (28.1%) for 167.9pts (+109.7%)
  • and Class 3 runners who won by 3 to 15 lengths last time out, 11 to 30 days ago are 12 from 38 (31.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+65.6% ROI)

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Rossetti at 11/4 BOG, from any of the half dozen or so firms all quoting that price at 7.35pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Stratford.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 28th June 2016

Monday's Result :

5.25 Wolverhampton : Paladin @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/8 (On the rail and led inside final furlong, but like so many of our runners this month, was nailed late on and beaten by a quarter length after having been backed in to less than 46% of our advised odds!)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

6.50 Stratford:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pembroke House at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding is a very consistent sort over fences, having finished in the firat two home six times from 10 starts and his last six results are 12P222 and he should really be coming here off the back of a win last time out. Unfortunately he stumbled badly at the last, lost all momentum and went down by 2 lengths at Towcester four weeks ago. That said, there's no disgrace in getting beaten by a Kerry Lee chaser!

Class and going are fine today and he gets to go off the same mark as last time out, but (with no disrespect intended to James Banks) there has been a change of jockey, with Sam Twiston-Davies now taking over in the hope/expectation that he'll just eke a bit more of this one.

He's trained by Sarah-Jayne Davies, better known for Point to Point runners, but has also started to make a little bit of a name for herself under Rules over fences, especially in Class 4/5 handicap chases with horses priced at 2/1 to 15/2, where her runners are 11/45 (25% SR) for profits of 14.9pts (+33.1% ROI) over the last three and a half years or so.

With today's race in mind, those 45 chasers are...

  • 11/44 (25%) for 15.9pts (+36.2%) as males
  • 9/36 (25%) for 9.08pts (+25.2%) had a top 5 finish LTO
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 16.6pts (+87.4%) last ran 16-90 days ago
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.38pts (+129.8%) on Soft ground

AND...horses fitting all four of the above are 3/4 (75%) for 7.84pts (+195.9%) with the loser finishing as a runner-up!

...so today's play is a 1pt win bet on Pembroke House at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who led the way at 5.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...