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- 2.05 Stratford
- 2.40 Stratford
- 4.50 Thurles
- 7.00 Wolverhampton
And as that trio contains a Juvenile Hurdle, an Irish bumper and an A/W novice event, I think I'll look at the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase of 17 fences over a left handed 2m7½f (after an extra furlong for rail adjustments) on soft ground that is better in places...
GO STEADY has made the frame in half of his 18 chase outings, going on to win a very creditable six times (all on good to soft or 'worse'). He now drops in class and weight after finishing in mid-division at Kempton 16 days ago and has a win and a place from his last two runs at this grade. Gets on well with this jockey and shouldn't be bothered by underfoot conditions.
WHYDAH GALLY was a useful hurdler last season finishing 321F1 at Classes 3 & 4, but has failed to make much impact this season since being asked to jump fences. He was pulled up 4 out at Taunton at the end of last year in a race sandwiched by defeats of 27 and 20 lengths. Not sure he gets the trip over fences either.
NATIVE ROBIN is, at 13yo, surely in the twilight of a decent enough career that has seen him win 11 of 36 over fences, but since winning by just over a length in a Class 3, 2m4½f chase at Wincanton 13 months ago, has gone down by 19, 40, 33, 38 and 28 lengths in five successive defeats since and he's never raced as far as he'll asked to here, but does drop in class.
RAKHINE STATE is a late convert to chasing, as this 10yr old only tackled a fence for the first time when 3rd of 11 over 2m5f at Southwell at the end of November, which was a good effort considering he'd been off for 502 days. He followed that up with another third place finish next/last time out 66 days ago, but he did halve the margin of defeat from 20L to 10L, but would need to improve further to land a chase win at the third time of asking and he's another who has never gone this far.
RESERVE TANK started his chasing career by finishing 212 in three Class 1 (Lst/Gr2/Gr2) Novice events in Oct/Nov 2019, but has results of PFPPP47 since, which is hardly inspiring. Interspersed amongst those seven chase failures, he ahs also raced eleven times over hurdles, making the frame just once in a run of form reading 5PP528P6433, making one place and eight incomplete runs from eighteen starts. I suspect that first-time blinkers won't work a miracle here.
ANIMAL got off the mark over fences at the third attempt, landing a 2m6f soft ground affair at Fakenham on New Year's Day 2022 and despite a run of five defeats since (36337), he's still 3lbs higher than that win and his record higher than Class 5 is lamentable.
ICAQUE DE L'ISLE was first and third in back to back six-runner 2m2f chases at Aix-Les-Bains in June/July of last year, but has failed to score in three attempts since crossing the channel. He was a well beaten (41 lengths) 3rd of 5 over a soft ground 3m at Ffos Las in early November, but got to within 10 lengths of the winner on Boxing Day, when 2nd of 8 over 2m4f at Huntingdon (gd to soft) and got closer still next/last time out at Hereford five weeks ago, when beaten by 4.5 lengths over 2m5f on good ground. Eased a pound here and getting weight all round, he is improving but the going and the trip are a concern.
Instant Expert shows the field's record in similar conditions, but based on the above, I'm not expecting much positivity...
Short of his third placed finish here on his only previous visit to Stratford, Go Steady is probably the eyecatcher, although the sadly out of form veteran Native Robin does have some good numbers from his past. Elsewhere there are some tales of woe for Animal at this level and on this going and there's far too many red blocks for my liking, perhaps the place stats will look better?
Well, Go Steady and Native Robin are still very strong and you can start to make a case for both Animal and Icaque de L'isle to make the frame, but they've got improvement to make here. The feature of the day is PACE, of course and our pace analyser tells us that in similar races to this, leaders have been hauled in by the pack and have generally been defeated, whilst hold-up horses have struggled to make ground up...
...suggesting an average pace score in the 2.00 to 3.00 region might well be advantageous. If wee look at this field's most recent efforts...
...it looks like Native Robin will be the one setting the pace with most of the field keeping in touch not too far away ready to engulf him in the closing stages. That's likely to be his downfall and it's also likely to be tough for the likes of Rakhine State and Animal from the back.
Summary
Quite simply, I like Go Steady here. A very competent chaser down in class and weight, no issues with the ground or the trip and gets on well with today's rider and the 9/2 available at 6.30pm on Sunday was a bit of a pleasant surprise.
Elsewhere, pace is likely to be the undoing of Native Robin, Rakhine State and Animal and neither are in great form anyway, leaving Whydah Gally, Icaque de l'isle and Reserve Tank as the challengers for second spot. I have doubts about Whydah Gally getting the trip and although unexposed over fences, hasn't got close to winning whilst Reserve Tank is in a horrible run of form.
All of which almost be default leads us to the French 5yr old Icaque de l'isle, who has yet to win in the UK but is slowly improving. I think he'll go well here if getting the trip and I've no doubts he's going to win races, but might have to settle for silver here, although the bookies disagree with me and have him as the fav at prices around the 2/1 mark, which seem a little skinny.
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