Racing Insights, Thursday 24/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

1.50 York
2.15 Chepstow
5.30 Killarney
7.40 Killarney
7.55 Leopardstown
8.35 Chelmsford

Our three UK free races are a Class 1 affair for 2 yr old fillies and a pair of Class 6 contests; none of which really appeal to me, so I'm done here today.

Only joking! I've decided to find an alternative race to look at from both a quality and an Instant Expert perspective and I've fell upon the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner (shame there's not 8, of course), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase, over a left-handed 2m3½f on good ground...

Presentandcounting won last time out and is two from three, but all seven have at least one win from their last five outings. The LTO winner is, however, up one class here, as is bottom-weight Sea Prince, whilst top-weight Hang In There, Tardree and sole mare La Domaniale all raced at Class 1 last time, as they finished 3rd, 6th and 9th in the 14-runner Summer Plate at Market Rasen, where Courtland (who won for us on Tuesday) was the runner-up.

That was 33 days ago and the entire field has raced in the last 23 to 53 days, they've also all won here at Stratford before with Presentandcounting, La Domaniale and Cracking Destiny being former course and distance winners. Hang In There and Tardree have won over a similar trip elsewhere.

Jockey Joe Anderson takes 5lbs off Emma Lavelle's top-weighted Hang In There, which should help his cause allied with that drop in class after being placed at Class 1 and Instant Expert says he's now 4lbs lower than his last winning mark...

Plenty of positives there, although Noahthirtytwored is better over hurdles than fences so far, but that 1 in 5 on good ground is tempered by him making the frame in 2 of the 4 defeats. Presentandcounting's two Class 2 chases have seen him finish 6th and 9th, but he was prolific at Class 3, making the frame in 8 of 9 attempts, winning 6 times, whereas Sea Prince's 1 from 7 on good ground represents his whole chasing career and on that basis alone, I'm ruling him out here, whilst I think the top three look strongest right now.

In similar past contests, the further forward a horse ahs raced, the better has been the chances of winning the race...

...but as long as you're not held-up, there's every chance of making the frame without leading...

If we look at the field's last few outings...

...then you'd probably want to consider the top four for a likely winner and also worry about Noahthirtytwored's chances of making the frame.

Summary

From Instant Expert I liked Hang In There, Presentandcounting and La Dominiale, whilst the pace stats pointed towards Tardree, Hang In There, Presentandcounting and Sea Prince with Hang In There and Presentandcounting scoring well on both counts. The latter is a former course and distance winner who has finished 121 in his last three, but is up in class and weight after demolishing a 3-runner contest at Perth recently, sauntering home by 38 lengths. The former didn't win last time out but ran a really good race to finish third in the Class 1 Summer Plate, just one place behind Courtland who won for us on Tuesday.

I suspect there'll be little between the pair, but if pushed for a selection, I think I prefer the class dropping 4/1 Hang In There off a mark lower than his last win, but the 5/2 fav Presentandcounting shouldn't be too far away.

Only seven go to post after the withdrawal of Vision des Flos, so we only get two places at the bookies, although Coral are paying four places. If you can place bets with them, then 17/2 E/W about the mare La Dominiale could well work.

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