Racing Insights, Thursday 03/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.45 Galway
5.05 Galway
6.10 Galway
6.40 Newcastle
8.15 Newcastle

As most of you, I don't really do Irish racing and those two Newcastle races aren't great, but as I was flicking through the cards with the daily feature, Instant Expert, in mind, I spotted this...

Now, I don't know what kind of quality we're dealing with here, but it looks competitive with plenty of runners having fared well under expected conditions, so I'm going to be looking at the 5.25 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Only Mr Yeats has failed to win any of his last three outings, but he has made the frame in all three. Scarpia won last time out and Gentleman Valley has won each of his last three. In fact I backed him via this column last time out!

He's up 6lbs now to a career-high mark of 123, but he hasn't stepped up in class, unlike the bottom three on the card, Hoganville, Mr Yeats and Hunting Percival, who all step up from Class 4 despite not winning last time out. The latter of that trio is a bit hit and miss wit a win and two runner-up finishes from his last six runs, but was pulled up in the other three, so he's clearly unreliable.

He has, however, won here at Stratford in the past (in a 2m7f hurdle), whilst Isthebaropen (great question!) won a 2m6½f hurdle here too. Hoganville and Mr Yeats have both won at a similar trip to this one, whilst top weight Shantou Express is the only previous course and distance winner, achieved two starts ago and he has also scored here over 3m3f, so track/trip shouldn't pose any issues.

Isthebaropen could be excused for needing a run after a break of over nine months since being pulled up at Aintree and it's ten months since he last completed a race and I'd be reluctant to back him until I'd seen him have a run. The others have all raced in the last seven weeks with Hunting Percival sighted as recently as Monday when pulled up over fences at Newton Abbot. he did, however, win her over 2m7f on his last effort over hurdles a month ago and this is reflected in that Instant Expert graphic I opened with, that I've reproduced below...

The entire filed are 3-6lbs higher than their last winning marks, so none gain any real advantage there and the above data doesn't really cause me any grounds for concern, although Mr Yeats and Scarpia do look a little weaker than the others on that evidence, but there's not a great deal in it. A trip in excess of three and a quarter miles on ground softer than good might take some getting though and there does appear to be a wide range of tactics employed by this field in recent outings...

If the above is anything to go by, then it could well be an early tussle for the lead between Shantou Express, Scarpia and Hoganville, whilst the returning Isthebaropen looks content to bide his time. The issue there, of course, is that he becomes too far off the pace and is too rusty after his lay-off to make up the ground on a track that hasn't been kind to hold-up types...

At this point, I think that's enough negatives about Isthebaropen and he now joins Hunting Percival in the discard list, leaving five in with a shout.

Summary

Realistically, any of the five I've got left in could go on and win this, but the way that Gentleman Valley won so easily at Worcester last time out makes me think he's still in front of the handicapper. He might well open up too short for me to back, but if I could get 5/2, I'd be pretty happy in such a competitive race. As for who completes the forecast, you really could make a case for any of the other four runners , so I'm going to refer back to our feature of the day, Instant Expert, to look at the place stats...

...and tentatively suggest Mr Yeats marginally ahead of Scarpia, who might well relish the step up in trip. Both Bet365 and SkyBet will pay three places when they open up, so fingers crossed that one of this latter pair are long enough for a small E/W bet.

PS Gentleman Valley was readily available at 5/2 just after 4pm when i took 8/1 E/W about Mr Yeats with bet365.

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