Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/06/24

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...which is very heavily Ascot-oriented, of course. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.45 Ascot
  • 4.10 Catterick
  • 6.40 Beverley
  • 8.45 Beverley

The first of our free races also has three runners on The Shortlist, but I'm not really into 17-runner sprints, so I think we'll take the third name on The Shortlist, Get Sky High and assess the 3.55 Stratford, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip of 2m 145yds (after a 75yd rail movement) on good ground...

Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis were the 3/1 co-favourites when I started looking at this race and they were the three that I thought would fill the places. King Otis won last time out and is two from three, whilst sole mare Get Sky High comes here seeking a hat-trick. Ilanz was a runner-up last time around and Donnie Azoff finished third on his last run, but that was 229 days ago and he might need the run.

Vision des Flos is the only one without a win in five, having suffered eight defeats on the bounce and he now might also need a run after a 208-day absence and you could say the same about As Tears Go By as he makes a yard debut after 263 days off track. Forever William also debuts for his new yard, whilst featured runner, Get Sky High, runs in a handicap for just the second time and she steps up a class here, as does King Otis, whilst Donnie Azoff is up two classes.

All nine have won over a similar trip to this one, but only Donnie Azoff has scored over course and distance, although Get Sky High has won a bumper here over today's trip...

Recent form suggests that Manor Park struggles to win on good ground or at Class 3, whilst Taleit Easy has struggled at the trip. Donnie Azoff has a line of green off a small sample size with Get Sky High and King Otis catching the eye at going/trip respectively.

The place stats from those races above say that most of them should be at home under these conditions...

...with Donnie Azoff strengthening his case for making the frame whilst Ilanz looks very strong too. Past previous similar races here at Stratford have rewarded those willing to set the pace...

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...which based on this field's last few outings...

...could be very good news for Get Sky High who has led in three of  his last four outings.


At the start of my analysis, I agreed with the bookies that Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis would be the three to focus upon and none of their six rivals have done enough above to throw me off that track, but I do think that King Otis might be the slightly weaker of the three.

Ilanz edged it on Instant Expert and Get Sky High had it on pace, but if pushed to choose between the two, I'd narrowly have ti side with Ilanz.

As of 6.15pn, you could still get 3/1 for all three runners and if one was to slip up, then Donnie Azoff might be a viable E/W pick at 11/1.

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