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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th February

NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £30.10 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Whatswrongwithyou) & 8 (Rockpoint)

Leg 2 (1.50): 2 (Barters Hill) & 4 (Bastien)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Saphir Du Rheu), 1 (Native River) & 2 (Cloudy Dream)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Politologue)

Leg 5 (3.35): 16 (Lalor), 21 (Silver Streak), 20 (Irish Roe) & 14 (Lough Derg Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Ibis Du Rheu), 5 (Duke Des Champs) & 7 (Reigning Supreme)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.15: It’s the changing of the (Newbury) guard on Saturday compared to twelve months ago when Nicky Henderson only held four entries on the day, having declared 12 (nearly 18% of the total number of declarations) this time around.  Out of interest, Paul Nicholls ‘held court’ last year with eight intended runners but drops back to half a dozen on this occasion.  Now that the housekeeping has been sorted, it’s worth noting that despite his dozen runners on the card, Nicky seemed intent on running WHATSWRONGWITHYOU in this opening event some time ago. Ok Corral franked the recent form of Nico’s mount yesterday at Kempton and there seems little (if no) reason to take on Nicky’s progressive seven-year-old this afternoon.  I fancy ROCKPOINT to chase the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 14 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won five of the last eight contests.  Ten of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Whatswrongwithyou (soft)

1.50: Seven-year-olds have secured seven of the last fourteen contests with BASTIEN being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Alan King is back among the winners (under both codes) and with a half decent conditional jockey aboard (rider of five winners thus far), Alan’s three time winner should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.  To expect any of the other horses in the field to cope with BARTERS HILL if back to his best would be fanciful in the extreme and with money coming for the favourite on the exchanges overnight, it’s impossible to ignore his claims.  The other potential winner in the line up is KING UTHER from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last nineteen years.  13 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/2—Barters Hill (2 x soft)

2.25: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the sixteen renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts.  Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti. SAPHIR DU RHEU is the vintage representative this year and it’s worth looking at the weights because although this is not a handicap, the penalties incurred by NATIVE RIVER brings the pair exactly on the marks that would meet in such a contest.   Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008.  Seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence but eight-year olds NATIVE RIVER and CLOUDY DREAM could narrow the recent margins. I will simply offer all three runners into the Placepot equation and hope that the best horse wins on the day.  The best horse is Native River but do prices of 4/5 over 9/2 over Saphir Du Rheu under the terms and conditions accurately weight up their chances?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

3/4—Native River (2 x good to soft & soft)

3.00: Paul Nicholls has won six of the last thirteen renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is POLITIOLOGUE with seven-year-olds having won three of the last four renewals.  That said, ALTIOR could still be viewed as the most underrated horse in training despite media attention, as Nicky Henderson’s High Chaparral gelding has won on his last eleven assignments, only having tasted defeat twice in his career following fourteen races.  His quote of 8/13 (Bet365) would have ‘probability factor types’ reaching for the phone/mouse in all…..probability!
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last eighteen renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. 16/19 market leaders reached the frame.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Game Spirit’:

1/2—Altior (soft)

1/2—Valdez (good)

3.35: Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only offered bet of the day) four years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for a long time now.  I followed that up by naming the following 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later.  Proving that I am not swayed by prices either way, last year’s successful 3/1 market leader was the first name on my team sheet!  50 of the last 60 horses to have claimed Placepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 13 of the last 15 relevant winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last eighteen gold medallists, the trainer not having been represented every year for good measure. Gary Moore has snared three of the last ten renewals (not represented twelve months ago), whilst five and six-year-olds have equally shared the last ten contests. Taking all the stats and facts into account my ‘short list’ comprises of LALOL, SILVER STREAK, IRISH ROE and LOUGH DERG SPIRIT. The quartet are just about listed in order of preference.  If there is a dark horse at 33/1 in the field which could blow the weight trend apart, MOON RACER fits the bill.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst eleven of the last nineteen market leaders secured Placepot positions during the period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Betfair Hurdle’:

3/3—High Bridge (2 x good to soft & soft)

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2/2—Jenkins (good & sfot)

1/6—Remiluc (soft)

1/2—Pappy Kay (good to soft)

4.10: IBIS DU RHEU could outrun his 10/1 quote this morning from my viewpoint with DUKE DES CHAMPS and REIGNING SPUPREME looking to be the potential party poopers if the Paul Nicholls raider is to be denied.  Either way, don’t expect that 10/1 quote to last too long this morning.  The 5/1 trade press call about DUKE DES CHAMPS is also looking generous at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the frame behind the 5/1 winner which was the first horse mentioned in my analysis.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

12 runners—Nicky Henderson (9/32 +12) – 46/177 – slight profit

6—Paul Nicholls (1/17 – loss of 12) – 25/160 – loss of 31

4—Alan King (2-19 – loss of 12) – 20/159 – loss of 60

4—Ben Pauling (2/18 – loss of 8) – 9/40 – loss of 5

3—Philip Hobbs (3/11 +6) – 24/122 +60

3—Jamie Snowden (0/4) – 1/20 – loss of 15

2—Sue Gardner (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2

2—Tom George (1/8 – loss of 5) – 6/69 – loss of 38

2—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 2/39 – loss of 26

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/5 – loss of 1) – 3/23 – loss of 6

2—David Pipe (3/9 +13) – 16/99 +1

2—Colin Tizzard (2/14 – loss of 4) – 12/81 – loss of 20

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £23.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £3.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Wolverhampton: £87.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £122.50 - 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.45 Chelmsford : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Tracked leader, driven to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace approaching final furlong...

We end another successful week with Saturday's...

4.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m in his final Point to Point race before starting his career under rules with three straight wins, all at 2m/2m0.5f on soft or heavy at Class 4 under today's jockey Harry Bannister.

So although his effort for a 4-timer is also a handicap debut, he should at least be accustomed to the race conditions.

His trainer, Harry Whittington, is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 12.12pts (+48.5% ROI) with handicap debutants and these include...

  • 21-150 days since last run : 7/20 (35%) for 17.12pts (+85.6%)
  • over hurdles : 4/18 (22.2%) for 1.09pts (+6%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.88pts (+32%)
  • on soft/heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 3.14pts (+62.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.55pts (+318.2%)

That stat re: LTO winners isn't really a surprise, as Harry's LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 11.46pts (+81.8% ROI) in handicaps just since the start of 2017!

And, since 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a Novice hurdle last time out in the previous 90 days, went on to score again on 162 of 893 (18.1%) for 146pts (+16.4%), including...

  • on handicap debut : 66/361 (18.3%) for 78.44pts (+21.7%)
  • 31-90 dslr : 54/304 (17.8%) for 95.04pts (+31.3%)
  • on soft ground : 40/226 (17.7%) for 40.1pts (+17.7%)
  • and here at Warwick : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.54pts (+45.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 25th January

WARWICK – JANUARY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £7.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Warwick: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 3 (Fields Of Fortune), 2 (Falcon Son) & 8 (Swaffham Bulbeck)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Molly The Dolly) & 4 (Sensulano)

Leg 3 (2.00): 4 (Yanmare), 3 (Whiskey Chaser) & 5 (The Artful Cobbler)

Leg 4 (2.35): 2 (Crucial Role), 3 (Polydora) & 4 (Fingerontheswitch)

Leg 5 (3.10): 8 (Grandturgeon) & 6 (Poole Master)

Leg 6 (3.45): 1 (Granard) & 3 (Not Normal)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.55: The stats and fact at the foot of the column can be misleading at times or at least, you have to sift your way through the ratio and draw your own conclusions.  Take Alan King’s record here this season as an example; given that the trainers boasts 7/18 figures though a minor loss to level stakes has been recorded.  This suggests that Alan wins with his short priced horses whereby FIELDS OF FORTUNE would be interesting if money arrives for Wayne Hutchinson’s mount, though that has not been the case so far this morning, albeit ‘early doors’.  Others of interest include FALCON SON and Olly Murphy’s newcomer SWAFFHAM BULBECK who is the trainer’s only raider anywhere in the country today.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 market leader was pulled up, the race going to the 6/4 second favourite.  The following 13/8 favourite also missed out on a Placepot position, before the next two (3/10 and even money) market leaders obliged.

 

1.25: The soft/heavy conditions should not stop MOLLY THE DOLLY in her tracks, albeit there is a semblance of support coming in for SENSULANO at the time of writing, with the other trio all proving very easy to back in the dead of night. That said, six pounds might not be enough to draw the pair together in the run to the line with Dan Skelton’s course and distance winner progressing along the right lines.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have won (2/1 & 5/4), though the other 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing.

Course records of the course winners in the second event:

1/1—Molly The Dolly (good to soft)

2.00: The cynic in yours truly suggests that the safest bet here would be to take a decent price about of the one ‘dead eight’ contenders jumping ship before entering the paddock.  Upwards and onward however, by informing that YANMARE was beaten in this event last year at odds of 4/5 in a win only contest.  Water Wagtail is becoming increasingly frustrating, whereby preference is for dual heavy ground winner WHISKEY CHASER and THE ARTFUL COBBLER who boasts a 1/3 record under heavy conditions.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Course records of the course winners in third race:

1/3—Milicent Silver (heavy)

1/3—Yanmare (soft)

1/4—Water Wagtail (good to soft)

 

2.35: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-5 have secured five of the nine available Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/1 & 9/2) of the three winners thus far.  Only two of the nine declarations ‘qualify’, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRUCIAL ROLE over POLYDORA, though both horses are entered into my Placepot mix. FINGERONTHESWIRCH often plods round into a place when completing the course whereby his double figure quote this morning catches the eye, though only from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured a medal of each colour in claiming Placepot positions along the way.

 

3.10:  GRANDTURGEON looks difficult to kick out of the frame in this Hunter Chase event, especially with Alex Edwards in the saddle, given that I am invariably swayed by adept pilots in these events.  That is a factor to take with you as the Hunter Chase season gather momentum from here on in.  Course winner POOLE MASTER will represent better value that the ex Paul Nicholls inmate Mon Parrain from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: All five favourites have obliged in this Hunter Chase event at odds of 1/2-11/10-5/4-9/4-3/1.

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Course records of the course winners in fifth on the card:

1/4—Poole Master (soft)

 

3.45:  GRANARD represents ‘lucky owners’ for Nigel Tiston-Davies in the finale and Daryl Jacob’s mount would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to go very close in this grade/company I’ll wager.  NOT NORMAL sets the standard from what we have witnessed to date, albeit the ‘high jump bar’ has not been raised very far off the ground as yet!
Favourite factor: Both (11/10 & 11/4) favourites sneaked into the respective frames last year via the inaugural divisions of this event, landing Placepot positions via bronze medals.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Warwick card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Dan Skelton (8/29 – loss of 1 point) – 27/80 +14

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 3) – 22/140 – loss of 45

3—Henry Daly (2/6 +7) – 8/56 – loss of 15

2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Warwick this season) – 1/17 – loss of 12

2—Alan King (7/18 – loss of 1) – 30/118 – loss of 37

2—Emma Lavelle (1/4 +8) – 2/39 – loss of 17

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/7) – 3/47 – loss of 8

2—Bill Turner (0/3) – 0/4

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kelso: This is a new meeting

Southwell: £12,993.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

6.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 7/2 Slowly into stride, towards rear, stayed on inside final furlong, never nearer...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.35 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Handicap Hurdle over 3m1.5f on Soft ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has made the frame in four of his last five starts, winning twice including last time out seven days ago over 3 miles on soft ground at this grade. Despite easing down on the run-in, he was still home a good 13 lengths ahead of his nearest rival to whom he was conceding 25lbs.

He comes from a yard in great form, as Henry Daly's runners have 3 wins and 2 places from 9 starts over the past fortnight with 2 winners and a placer from five over the last week. Jockey Richard Johnson is also in good nick, having ridden 9 winners from 40 in the fortnight.

Meanwhile, here at Warwick, Henry Daly is 15/112 (13.4% SR) for 14.04pts (+12.5% ROI) since 2009, whilst Richard Johnson's record over the last 6yrs here stands at 38/170 (22.4% SR) for 0.19pts (+0.11% ROI), showing that his success seems to attract punters' money.

On top of all the above, Mr Daly's handicap hurdlers are 46/291 (15.8% SR) for 96.2pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • at Class 3 : 12/86 (14%) for 32.9pts (+38.3%)
  • 6-25 days since last run : 18/77 (23.4%) for 30pts (+39%)
  • with Richard Johnson : 12/67 (17.9%) for 22.6pts (+33.8%)
  • and in January : 8/29 (27.6%) for 18.6pts (+64.1%)

...whilst over the last 2 years alone, his LTO winners are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 13.14pts (+29.2% ROI)...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG which was available from half a dozen outlets at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 13th January

KEMPTON – JANUARY 13

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

 

2017: £135.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Vaziani) & 1 (Redicean)

Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Chef Des Obeaux) & 4 (Secret Investor)

Leg 3 (1.30): 7 (Rothman), 1 (Bishop) & 3 (Exitas)

Leg 4 (2.05): 4 (Waiting Patiently) & 1 (Josses Hill)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Top Ville Ben), 9 (Spiritofthegames), 10 (Red Indian) & 2 (River Frost)

Leg 6 (3.15): 1 (Fountains Windfall), 5 (Ballykan) & 3 (The Young Master)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: It’s worth noting that Alan King (REDICEAN) is the only trainer to have saddled two recent winners of this ‘juvenile’ event.  That said, Robert Walford only held one option for the rest of the week after scoring with Kohuma at Taunton on Tuesday, that inmate being VAZIANI in this event.  5/1 looks a decent price (almost right across the board at the time of writing) about Robert’s debut Taunton winner who hails from a stable boasting recent stats of 8/29 (28% strike rate). Course form is always worth a length or three however whereby the chance of REDICEAN is highly respected especially here at Kempton, one of the fastest tracks in the country whatever relevant conditions are in situ.
Favourite factor: Favourites came to the gig on a four timer three years ago before the run was ended, though it’s worth noting that all 12 winners during the last 13 years have won at odds of 11/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Redicean (soft)

 

12.55: Nicky Henderson held a couple of options for this event at the penultimate entry stage, with the trainer showing the green light to both horses, namely CHEF DES OBEAUX and DUKE DEBARRY who are listed in order of preference.  Neither Nicky or Paul Nicholls (SECRET INVESTOR) have won this event thus far, though that stat looks about to change in this sixth renewal.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites filled the forecast positions four years ago before the next two (even money & 10/11) successful market leaders completed a clean sweep for jollies.  That was followed by two favourites which claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

 

1.30: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals with two decent types to represent the vintage this time around.  BISHOPS COURT looks solid Placepot material, though I latched onto the 14/1 Skybet odds about ROTHMAN this morning which looked well over the top.  12/1 is still available with four firms at the time of writing.  There was also money around for EXITAS (James Bowen takes off a useful five pounds) overnight and this trio will carry my Placepot cash.
Favourite factor: Just one (9/4) favourite has won via the five renewals thus far, though the bad news does not end there.  The other four market leaders all finished out of the frame resulting in tens of thousands of Placepot units going up in smoke in this race alone.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/3—Exitas (good)

1/5—Breath Of Blighty (good)

 

2.05: Three of the four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 which brings in this year’s lone qualifier JOSSES HILL into the mix, even though Nicky Henderson’s raider has not scaled the heights that looked imminent a few years back.  That said, JOSSES HILL seems to reserve some of his best work for this venue and he has taken on Top Notch in his last two races!. That all said, WAITING PATIENTLY only sits 16 ounces the wrong side of the ‘superior’ weight barrier, whereby Malcolm Jefferson’s highly impressive northern challenger deserves top billing, coming to the gig on a five timer.  Although Smad Place and Gods Own have both won at Kempton, their best efforts are reserved for more testing courses from my viewpoint, talented horses though they are.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged by 23 lengths before the following ten length gold medallist justified favouritism at even money.  We returned to ‘real life’ two years ago when the (Paul Nicholls trained) 2/5 favourite was the only horse (of the three contenders) to fail to complete the course, though the 5/4 market leader twelve months ago floored the majority of the bookmakers, on track at least.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/5—Josses Hill (good & soft)

1/3—Smad Place (good)

2/2—Art Masquerade (2 x good)

1/5—God’s Own (good to soft)

 

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2.40:  This looks to be the potential ‘Placepot destroyer’ on the card and if one or two of the shorter priced horses in other races also finish out of the frame, we could yet witness a good dividend despite what the first impression of the programme offers.  Six-year-olds have won six of the ten renewals of the 'Lanzarote' at odds of 20/1--9/1--8/1--9/2*--9/2**--11/4*, whilst eight of the ten winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less.  TOP VILLE BEN, SPIRITOFTHEGMAES and RED INDIAN are more speculative types to add to RIVER FOST as six-year-olds dominate my permutation.
Favourite factor: Five of the 11 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four (7/4—11/4--9/2--9/2**) winners.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/1—William Henry (good)

2/2—River Frist (good & good to soft)

1/1—Bags Groove (good)

1/1—Man From Mars (good)

 

3.15: The last four winners (of five in total) carried a minimum burden of eleven stones as have twelve of the fourteen horses which have secured Placepot positions thus far.  Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of FOUNTAINS WINDFALL, BALLYKAN and THE YOUNG MASTER.  I felt that I had to include two options alongside the favourite given that Fountains Windfall has fallen on his last two outings, albeit his chance is undeniable here if putting in a safe round of fencing.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing via two renewals of the toteplacepot finale before the10/3 market leader scraped into a Placepot position by finishing third in a nine runner contest two years ago.  Life improved for favourite punters twelve months on when the 9/4 market leader duly obliged before last year’s jolly secured a Placepot position at odds of 3/1 when claiming the silver medal.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (8/25 – loss of 4 points) – 229/895 +72

5—Alan King (2/17 – loss of 11) – 76/482 – loss of 87

3—Gary Moore (0/19) – 28/412 – loss of 186

3—Paul Nicholls (9/19 +1) – 119/522 – loss of 53

3—Dan Skelton (0/17) – 8/101 – loss of 74

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/6 +2) – 47/330 – loss of 51

2—Chris Gordon (0/9) – 9/76 +22

2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 3/562 – loss of 10

2—Charlie Mann (1/1 – slight profit) – 19/202 – loss of 50

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 4/57 +8

2—Nick Williams (0/2) – 7/45 – loss of 4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £292.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £149.20 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £57.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 31st

LINGFIELD – DECEMBER 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £279.10 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (11.40): 10 (Captain Pugwash), 3 (Groundfrost) & 5 (Enigmatic)

Leg 2 (12.10): 11 (Rennys Lady) & 7 (Kachumba)

Leg 3 (12.40): 4 (Carp Kid) & 1 (Ojala)

Leg 4 (1.15): 3 (Rainbow Rebel), 4 (Celestial Spheres) & 1 (Al Hamdany)

Leg 5 (1.45): 11 (Goring), 7 (Mystique Moon) & 1 (My Target)

Leg 6 (2.15): 4 (Pride Of Angels) & 2 (Bernie’s Boy)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

11.40: Horses who have suffered ‘traffic problems’ last time out’ have a way of getting beaten again the next day in my experience but that said, I can see why CAPTAIN PUGWASH was popular on the boards overnight.  The difference with the selection being that he was attempting to ‘double up’ having scored on his previous start, unlike so many ‘unlucky’ horses which seem to find trouble time after time.  Punters who have ‘beaten the book’ will probably have most to fear from GROUNDFROST at the business end of proceedings, whilst offering ENIGMATIC as the alternative each way option.

Favourite factor: Twelve renewals have been contested during the last decade via spilt divisions, with four clear marker leaders and three joint favourites having prevailed.  Indeed, 11/12 scored at a top price of 6/1 whilst 8/14 favourites secured Placepot positions.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Enigmatic

1/3—Spirit Of Sarwan

 

12.10: RENNY’S LADY showed a degree of ability first time up and if laying up a little bit closer to the pace this time around, David Evans could take his recent ratio to 5/16 with his only runner on the day, having achieved some half decent results during the holiday period.  There is plenty of money in the positive exchange queue for KACHUMBA at the time of writing and from trap five, Rae Guest’s Mayson filly could reach the frame again following her bronze medal effort at the second time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Lingfield card.

 

12.40: Having saddled just four winners between the months of July and September (inclusive - via a 5% strike rate) James Osborne’s year was heading off the rails.  18 subsequent gold medallists offering 41 points of level stake profit will have cheered the trainer up no end and there is a chance that Jamie could end 2017 on a high via his course winner CARP KID who was well backed in the dead of night.  OJALA would appear to be the obvious danger.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded until last year when the bookmaker’s bubble was thankfully burst.  That said, the previous four winners had scored at a top price of 7/1 whereby the layers were not having everything going their own way, using general terms which in no way accurately reflects all the books on the rails, a point that ‘Big Mac’ used to ignore.

Course winner in the third race:

1/1—Carp Kid

 

1.15: Marco Botti saddled the first winner of this event at odds of 7/1 twelve months ago, though punters investing in his representative here will have to take 2/1 (thereabouts) about AL HAMDANY on this occasion.  By the time that Tuesday arrives, Mark Johnston will only have saddled one horse in a week and that thoroughbred is RAINBOW REBEL who has made the long journey in an attempt to keep the home fires burning back at the ranch.  Throw CELETIAL SPHERES into the ring as well and we can deduce that Marco is a long way from taking anything for granted about his potential ‘double’ twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 favourite only just sneaked a Placepot position via a bronze medal performance.

Course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Berrahri

 

1.45: A victory here for GORING would end a sensational year for trainer Eve Johnson Houghton who has broken through the 50 winner barrier this season, having scored with just 23 gold medallists the year before last.  I offer GORING a genuine each way/Placepot chance in this grade/company, nominating MYSTIQUE MOON and MY TARGET as the potential spoilers in the pack as far as Eve and her team is concerned.  The latter named six time course winner would have been the outright call had six months not passed without the benefit of a racecourse appearance.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals, stats which include three (9/4, 9/4 & 2/1) winners.

Course winners in the fifth race:

6/10—My Target

1/5—Mutawathea

1/3—Mr Scaramanda

5/21—Alfred Hutchinson

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1/4—Believe It

1/2--Goring

 

2.15: Gary Moore snared a double yesterday albeit from nine runners but that said, three of his other contenders ran second, stats that bode well for the chance of PRIDE OF ANGELS in the final leg of our favourite wager.  BERNIE’S BOY is another realistic each way play from my viewpoint and I am content to let this pair complete my permutation, always believing that you will want to set aside some cash for the festivities tonight.  I will not be partaking as I am usually tucked up in slumber before eight o’clock at night in order to offer my dead of night thoughts.  However, that does not stop yours truly in wishing you a wonderful New Year to you and yours.  Enjoy but don't forget, leave that 'late night amber' in the glass - it's Cheltenham tomorrow!

Favourite factor: Two winning (3/1 & 4/5) favourites have ‘bookended’ the last six results, the other winners having scored at 16/1, 12/1 & 8/1 twice.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/9—Bridge Builder

1/5—Krazy Paving

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season before Saturday’s results + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Jamie Osborne (8/53 +7)

4—Michael Attwater (9/57 +49)

3—Richard Fahey (3/41 – loss of 26 points)

3—Phil McEntee (2/26 – loss of 10 points)

3—Gary Moore (3/50 – loss of 17 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (2/9 – slight loss)

2—John Best (3/39 – loss of 24 points)

2—Marco Botti (4/20 +8)

2—John Bridger (2/59 – loss of 27 points)

2—John Butler (10/39 +35)

2—Patrick Chamings (3/23 – loss of 5 points)

2—Simon Dow (8/34 +33)

2—Rae Guest (2/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Peter Hedger (2/21 – loss of 7 points)

2—Ron Hodges (0/9)

2—Richard Hughes (5/57 – loss of 40 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/21 – slight profit)

2—Dean Ivory (4/37 – loss of 11 points)

2—Henry Spiller (0/5)

2—Charlie Wallis (2/27 – loss of 8 points)

2—Lisa Williamson (0/9)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Uttoxeter: £40.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Warwick: £43.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 22nd November

KEMPTON - NOVEMBER 22

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (4.10): 3 (Plead), 4 (Jive Talking) & 2 (Hairdryer)

Leg 2 (4.40): 2 (Dashing Dusty), 4 (Roman Spinner) & 2 (Give Em A Clump)

Leg 3 (5.10): 10 (Salute The Soldier) & 5 (Flavius Titus)

Leg 4 (5.40): 6 (Qaysar) & 2 (Crack On Crack On)

Leg 5 (6.10): 1 (Blue Mist) & 8 (Tanseeq)

Leg 6 (6.40): 9 (Accidental Agent), 13 (Second Thought) & 2 (Khafoo Shememi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.10: With poor racing generally in place today, I thought I would offer this all weather meeting to offer a chance of a ‘get out of jail free’ card, if the NH sport earlier in the day has not worked out well for you.  Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 21 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all eight winners.  The top five horses in the betting at the time of writing hail from the superior weight trend, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PLEAD (if getting away on terms on this occasion), JIVE TAKING and HARIDRYER who deserves a win following some half decent placed efforts of late.  SOLVEIG’S SONG won this event at 33/1 last year and there will be horses at similar prices with less chance of winning running at Kempton this evening.  Holly Doyle negates the fact that Steve Woodman’s raider is running ‘out of the handicap’, to a fashion at least.
Favourite factor: All eight favourites have finished out with the washing thus far with bookmakers laughing all the way to the bank with gold medallists having scored at prices ranging between 8/1 and 33/1.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/11—Tee It Up Tommo

2/11—Buckland Beau

2/16—Biotic

2/11—Solveig’s Song

 

4.40:  Jamie Osborne did not enjoy the best of years on the turf front but the popular trainer has got his act together of late, boasting recent stats of 7/25, a ratio which offers a level stake profit of 46 points during the period.  It’s significant (accordingly) that Jamie has declared three runners on the card, the first of which is DASHING DUSTY who has been gelded going into his first handicap assignment.  Others for the mix include course winner ROMAN SPINNER and GIVE EM A CLUMP who hails from the David Evans camp which has posted a winner on each of the last two days.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (4/1 & 11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Secretario

1/2—Roman Spinner

 

5.10: The BHA are at it again by naming this as a new race because of its ‘novice status’ even though the distance, class classification and everything else is the same as it has been since the Doomsday Book was signed!  I am leaving my stats in though obviously, you can decide whether to take any notice of my findings down the years. SALUTE THE SOLDIER has been the subject of overnight support in no uncertain terms and given the good record of favourites in this event down the years (see below), Clive Cox’s Sepoy colt is the first name on the team sheet, especially with a really good Newbury debut effort under his belt.  FLAVIUS TITUS is the obvious danger given that jungle drums have only conspicuous relating to the newcomers by their absence.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

5.40: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton card, whereby the same stats and facts apply if you ignore the BHA ‘brief’.   I’m quick to jump on the backs of the lads/lasses in the trade press office who get the prices base over apex on occasions but their 8/13 quote about Richard Hannon’s once raced Choisir colt QAYSAR looks to be spot on after an excellent Newmarket effort on debut last month.  Nothing else is jumping off the page at the time of writing whereby I am offering CRACK ON CRACK ON as the alternative each way play in the race, despite the fact that he has plenty to find with the selection via Newmarket form.  If Clive Cox only had two runners travelling today I could have thought that his Havana Gold colt was merely keeping Salute The Soldier company in the horsebox, but that is not the case.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

6.10: The same  BHA comment applies to this juvenile event, whereby I will simply let you decide who is right/wrong!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that BLUE MIST has a wide enough draw to limit enthusiasm relating to his latest 5/4 quote which is backed by exchange rates at the time of writing.  Equally however, it is nigh impossible to leave Roger Charlton Makfi gelding out of the Placepot equation.  The additional furlong here might help TANSEEQ improve on his latest Kempton seven furlong effort, albeit not much improvement would be needed to reach the frame here I suspect.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/13 & 10/11) successful market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Blue Mist

1/1--Indiscretion

 

6.40: The last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones though unfortunately on this occasion, no horses are eliminated via a defection in the ranks.  Onwards and upward by informing that three-year-olds have won three of the last six contests whereby unbeaten course winners ACCIDENTAL AGENT, SECOND THOUGHT and KHAFOO SHEMENI are entrusted with my Placepot selections to hopefully secure the dividend.  The trio is listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this Listed event following eleven renewals, though three of the last eight market leaders did at least secur toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Khafoo Shememi

1/1—Keystroke

1/1—Accidental Agent

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1/1—Second Thought

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding meeting during the last five years:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (1)

4—Richard Hannon

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Fahey

3—William Haggas

3—Rod Millman

3—Jamie Osborne

2—George Baker (2)

2—Michael Bell

2—Roger Charlton

2—Simon Dow

2—John Gosden

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Richard Hughes

2—William Muir (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—David O’Meara

2—Hugo Palmer

2—Daniel Steele

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

2—Archie Watson

2—Ian Williams

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £189.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Hexham: Meeting abandoned

Warwick: £13.60 – 6 winners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 10th November

HEXHAM - NOVEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £26.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Hexham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 6 (Ouro Branco), 7 (Tetraites Style) & 2 (Calix Delafayette)

Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Handy Hollow) & 6 (Prince Dundee)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Niceandeasy) & 4 (Baraculu)

Leg 4 (2.10): 5 (Bitview Colin), 2 (Weston Jo) & 6 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Who’s Cross), 2 (Princess Mononoke) & 11 (Mrs Grass)

Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (On A Promise) & 7 (Willow Grange)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: OURO BRANCO represents Nigel Hawke (three runners on the card, the others contesting the 3.10 & 3.40 events) who boasts a 100% record (3/3) at Hexham during the last five years.  Eleven points of level stake profit has been realised during the period. One of the most exposed horses in the field, OURO BRANCO at least has plenty of moisture in the ground which is seemingly ideal, whilst Nigel could hardly have found the four-year-old an easier assignment.  TETRAITES STYLE has been the subject of some support on the exchanges overnight, whilst James Ewart’s Ayr winner CALIX DELAFAYETTE completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include a 5/4 winner.

 

1.10: I would not contemplate having a bet in the race from a win perspective but that said, the chance for HANDY HOLLOW to secure a Placepot position is there for all to see.  Lucinda Russel has saddled five of her last seventeen runners to winning effect and there is every chance that her Stowaway gelding PRINCE DUNDEE will figure prominently.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the first race on the card, whereby the same favourite stats are in place.

 

1.45: All four races have been secured by five/six/seven-year-olds, with the 'younger set' having claimed five of the last six renewals, coming into this year’s event on a five-timer.  Last year’s gold medallist was the only (heavy ground) course winner in the line up and five-year-old BARACULU is one of two such entries this time around.  The other is NICEANDEASY who looks to have been well placed, albeit the Keith Dalgleish raider has to break the vintage trend barrier as the Kalinisi gelding is a four-year-old.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/1--Niceandeasy (heavy)

1/2—Baraculu (heavy)

 

2.10: Soft ground course winner BITVIEW COLIN is the first of four runners on the programme to be saddled by John Patrick Ryan who boasts 2/3 stats here at Hexham during the last five years.  To add icing on the cake, John boasts level stake profits of 25 points for good measure. The same going should be in place and though ‘Colin’ has yet to winner after four steeplechase assignments, the trainer has found an ideal opportunity in this grade/company.  WESTON JOE and JUMP FOR DOUGH should offer challenges at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race on the Hexham card.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Weston Jo (heavy)

1/1—Bitview Colin (soft)

 

2.40: MRS GRASS ran down the field in this event last year but on a similar mark here thanks to a jockey claim and in reasonable form , MRS GRASS cannot be written off entirely as she has gained all three of her wins to date at this venue.  WHO’S CROSS is another John Patrick Ryan runner on the card with each way claims, whilst PRINCESS MONONOKE has her preferred ground conditions.

Favourite factor: Both (13/8 & 7/4) favourites had finished in the frame without winning their respective events before last year’s 7/2 market leader was one of four horses which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Princess Mononoke (soft)

1/4—Uno Valoroso (heavy)

3/21—Mrs Grass (2 x soft & good to soft)

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3.10: ON A PROMISE should prove difficult to kick out of the frame, whilst Irish raider WILLOW GRANGE appears to make up a decent duo against the remaining thirteen contenders in a race which is high on numbers but short on class.

Favourite factor: The four favourites have gained two gold medals alongside one of each colour, with all the market leaders having secured Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Turtle Cask (heavy)

1/5—Captain Sharp (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Hexham card on Friday followed by their five year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (39/226 (+45)

4—John Patrick Ryan (2/3 +25)

4—Sue Smith (0/14)

4—Victor Thomson (4/65 – loss of 36 points)

3—Nick Alexander (6/72 – loss of 40 points)

3—Julia Brook (2/14 – Slight loss)

3—James Ewart (11/53 +5)

3—Micky Hammond (12/112 – loss of 67 points)

3—Nigel Hawke (3/3 +11)

3—Nicky Richards (12/42 +17)

2—Maurice Barnes (18/116 – loss of 9 points)

2—George Bewley (9/64 +9)

2—Gillian Boanas (0/8)

2—Susan Corbett (6/92 – loss of 63 points)

2—Sam England (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Jonthan Haynes (10/85 – loss of 3 points)

2—Donald McCain (15/107 – loss of 60 points)

2—Lucy Normile (1/28 – loss of 11 points)

2—Paul Stafford (5/29 +8)

2—Simon West (0/3)

2—William Young Junior (3/21 – loss of 5 points)

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £338.00 – 7 favourites 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Warwick: £1,091.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: £307.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 5th October

HUNTINGDON - OCTOBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £67.20 (7 favourite - 1 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 1 (Plato’s Code), 9 (Thounder) & 7 (Hernandes)

Leg 2 (2.00): 7 (Mille Nautique) & 3 (Royal Plaze)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Dans Le Vent) & 6 (Hatcher)

Leg 4 (3.05): 4 (Air Squadrun), 8 (Brave Helios) & 2 (Teak)

Leg 5 (3.40): 4 (Pemba), 3 (Miss Spent) & 1 (Matchaway)

Leg 6 (4.10): 2 (Number One London), 5 (Sissinghurst) & 4 (Tiradia)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30:  Juvenile hurdle events are captivating at this time of year, hoping to witness a star in the making under NH rules.  11 of the last 14 winners of this event have won at odds of 9/2 or less and I could back the run of fancied winners to continue via dual winner PLATO’S CODE and THOUNDER.  That said, anything that Ian Williams saddles these days is worth a secondary glance, with HERNANDES representing Ian on this occasion, the trainer having won with five of his last eleven runners.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won via 16 renewals, alongside one joint favourite.  13 of the 17 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

2.00: MILLE NAUTIQUE finished as an unplaced (joint) favourite in this event last year.  Alan King’s gelding ended a run of ten straight defeats following his course victory (debut chase event) when scoring at Market Rasen last time out,   the tracks are similar and with ground in his favour, Tom Bellamy’s mount should go close in this grade/company.  WITNESS IN COURT has (somewhat surprisingly) come in for plenty of overnight support, though I prefer ROYAL PLAZA as the main danger to the tentative selection.

Favourite factor: Only one the three favourites (via two renewals) has claimed a Placepot position to date.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Deauville Dancer (good)

1/3—Honkytonktennessee (good)

1/2—Mille Nautique (good)

 

2.35: There was a time not so long ago when you could back beaten runners in the Championship Bumper at Cheltenham next time out with tremendous confidence as such horses during the period held a win ratio of nearly 70% at the time.  The study has disappointed in recent years, though sixth placed DANS LE VENT (earlier this year) has been offered a fine chance to follow up his successful effort at Ludlow when returned as the 2/5 favourite in his next start after the promising Cheltenham effort.  HATCHER is preferred as the main danger ahead of New Agenda, especially given Dan Skelton’s continued run of success.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 14 favourites have finished in the frame to date.  Six favourites have prevailed thus far, whilst all 13 gold medallists were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—New Agenda (good)

1/1—Hatcher (good)

 

3.05: A winner of 4/14 races on the level on turf, AIR SQUADRUN was scoring for the first time in five attempts under the NH code when wearing cheek-pieces the last day and making his handicap debut here, I’m hoping that Tom  George’s seven-year-old can follow up successfully.  BRAVE HELIOS has attracted overnight support at around the 10/1 mark which makes for interesting reading, whilst TEAK completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Captainofindustry (good)

1/4—Tangolan (good to soft)

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3.40: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13, statistics which eliminate Spoilt Rotten this time around.  With McCabe Creek seemingly easy to back at the time of writing, I am left with PEMBA, MISS SPENT and MATCHAWAY to include in my Placepot permutation.  Although the trio is listed in order of preference, support is developing for the latter named Kerry Lee representative, ensuring that that I am not content to let the other two ‘carry all my cash’ from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, stats which include one successful (7/4) market leader which won the inaugural contest for David Pipe.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2--Fields Of Glory (soft)

 

4.10: TIRADIA finished third at 16/1 in this event last year carrying three pounds less than the 11-10 burden today.  That said, recent winning form offers plenty of hope for another Placepot position to be gained here at the very least.  NUMBER ONE LONDON was a frustrating horse on the level, if only because Brian Meehan’s raider obviously possessed lots of talent, but was rarely able to deliver for one reason or another.  If on the best of form here however, Tim Vaughan’s raider could make short work of these rivals at the business end of the contest.  SISSINGHURST has been most disappointing of late but it would not take you too long to find half decent form if you delved back through his history.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite failed to complete the course behind horses which filled the frame at 7/1, 16/1 and 16/1 again.  The Placepot dividend subsequently disappointed those of us who had been successful on the day.

Record of the course winner in the field:

2/16—Tiradia (good to soft & soft)

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:

5 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (25/94 +14)

5—Dan Skelton (17/97 – loss of 43 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (5/40 – loss of 6 points)

3—Pat Phelan (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

3—Mark Pitman (1/4 – loss of 2 points)

3—John Ryan (1/7 +14)

3—Tim Vaughan (8/49 – loss of 16 points)

3—Paul Webber (4/48 – loss of 29 points)

2—John Jenkins (5/44 +27)

2—Donald McCain (2/25 – loss of 12 points)

2—Graeme McPherson (2/32 – loss of 19 points)

2—Gary Moore (15/84 +18)

2—Olly Murphy (No previous runners at the track)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/11)

2—Richard Phillips (1/34 – loss of 28 points)

2—Jamie Snowden (4/44 - loss of 29 points)

2—Ian Williams (8/51 – loss of 9 points)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £105.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: This is a new fixture on the calendar

Chelmsford: £75.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.40 Kempton : Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 6/1 : Chased leaders, ridden and unable to quicken when hung right over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

4.25 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shanroe Santos @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who has the following achievements relevant to today's contest...

  • 3 from 7 over 3m/3m0.5f  (of which 2/4 in chases)
  • 2/7 under Leighton Aspell (1/5 in chases)
  • 3/6 at odds of 6/1 and shorter (2/4)
  • 2/6 at Class 3 (2/4)
  • 2/5 this year (2/5)
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces (2/4)
  • 2/4 in fields of 1-7 runners (1/3)

And he's trained by Lucy Wadham, whose chasers are 36/189 (19.1% SR) for 96pts (+50.8% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • males @ 30/152 (19.7%) for 92.5pts (+60.9%)
  • at trips of 2m4.5f to 3m0.5f : 28/110 (25.5%) for 62.2pts (+56.5%)
  • at Class 3 : 14/68 (20.6%) for 78.6pts (+115.5%)
  • in the October-December final quarter : 15/61 (24.6%) for 96.5pts (+158.2%)
  • those running after a break of 5 to 10 months : 5/24 (20.8%) for 65pts (+270.9%)
  • and here at Warwick : 2/8 (25%) for 4.2pts (+52.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shanroe Santos @ 11/2 BOG, which was offered by half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 26th

BEVERLEY - SEPTEMBER 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Tarnhelm), 3 (Mr Greenlight) & 6 (Scenic River)

Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Mont Kinabalu), 5 (Salire) & 1 (Big Kitten)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Kirkham), 5 (The Stalking Moon) & 3 (Navarone)

Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Alpha Delphini) & 2 (Edward Lewis)

Leg 5 (4.25): 8 (Ravenhoe) & 6 (Mr Cool Cash)

Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Kohinur) & 2 (River Icon)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: The first two races on the card are novice events which are deemed as new races by the powers that be.  In all honesty, these races are exactly the same as they were as last year in terms of grade and distance so for the last time, I am including the stats as they were up to and including last year.  It is up to you whether you take them into account or disregard the figures. All eight winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones and it's difficult to envisage TARNHELM failing to land a blow at some stage of the contest. I would not back Mark Johnston’s Helmet filly from a win perspective though on the other hand, TARNHELM is certainly the first name on the team sheet as I prepare my permutation.  I suggested that there would be worse outsiders on the card than what turned out to be the 10/1 winner of this event twelve months ago and though MR GREENLIGHT will not be offered at such a big price, each way investors could do worse than give Tim Easterby’s raider a squeak.  Equally, stable companion SCENIC RIVER is also added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor:  Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include just the one (7/4) winner, if (repeating) you ignore the fact that this is a ‘new race’ according to the BHA.

 

2.45: Just a reminder that the same stance in taken in this race regarding its ‘new’ status.  What money that has been invested at the time of writing has been for MONT KINABALU and (to a lesser degree) SALIRE.  That said, Mark Johnston’s Kitten’s Joy newcomer BIG KITTEN would not have to possess a great deal of ability to become involved at the business end of the contest I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Favourites have secured four of the eight contests to date, with all eight market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions.

 

3.15: 14 of the last 16 winners of this event carried weights of 8-12 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the stats seriously, You can add ‘good to firm stats’ into the negative equation as well, as two of the runners here boast 10 course wins between them (see stats below), though every success has been registered under fast conditions which will not be in evidence today.  Of the pair which have received support overnight as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol, I prefer the chance of KIRKHAM over Equiano Springs, again on account of the soft ground being projected.  Others to consider include soft ground winners THE STALKING MOON and NAVARONE.

 

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/2—Navarone (soft)

6/19—Talent Scout (6 x good to firm)

1/7—Line Of Reason (good)

4/31—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)

 

 

3.50: With four of the six runners officially rated in three figures, this appears to be a reasonably strong renewal, though it is disappointing to report that the race will be contested on slow ground obviously. ALPHA DELPHINI boasts obvious claims via the form book, though whether the ground will suit EDWARD LEWIS more remains to be seen.  Last year’s runner up Ornate would also prefer fast ground.

Favourite factor:  Nine favourites have won via 19 renewals to date, whilst 13 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/7—Line Of Reason (good)

1/1—Edward Lewis (good to firm)

2/3—Alpha Delphini (2 x good)

2/2—Ziggy Lee (2 x good to firm)

 

4.25:  I feel compelled to start with the returning title holder RAVENHOE if only because the 18/1 quote this morning makes quite a lot of appeal on ground that will suit, albeit drying conditions (to a fashion) would be perfect for Mark Johnston’s raider.  That said, similar going comment (relating to good to soft ground) also applies to MR COOL CASH who has been the subject of a lot of support in the dead of night.  Richard Guest boasts a 31% strike rate here at Beverley this season and this pair from either end of the market will do for me against the remaining 13 contenders.

Favourite factor:  Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (3/1) winner.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

3/23—Make On Madam (2 x good + good to firm)

1/7—Chiswick Bey (good to firm)

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2/5—Mr Cool Cash (good to firm & good to soft)

1/6—Beadlam (good)

2/4—Ravenoe (good & good to soft)

1/2—Pioneering (good to firm)

3/5—Arcane Dancer (good to firm – good – good to soft)

1/1—Metronomic (good)

 

4.55: RIVER ICON did not do a great deal wrong when changing codes at the first time on the level at Chester, though KOHINUR should take the beating under the terms and conditions of this maiden event for fillies.

Favourite factor:  The Placepot finale is (genuinely) a new race on the Beverley programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Tim Easterby (7/69 – loss of 35 points)

6—Richard Fahey (15/87 – loss of 11 points)

4—Patrick Holmes (0/7)

3—Les Eyre (2/19 – loss of 3 points)

3—Richard Guest (4/13 +15)

3—Mark Johnston (9/56 (loss of 1 point)

3—Lawrence Mullaney (1/14 – loss of 8 points)

3—David O’Meara (7/70 – loss of 27 points)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (3/14 – slight loss)

2—Antony Brittain (2/24 – loss of 5 points)

2—Julie Camacho (1/9 – loss of 7 points)

2—Michael Chapman (0/1)

2—Ann Duffield (0/21)

2—Marjorie Fife (0/6)

2—Roger Fell (3/23 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ollie Greenall (0/2)

2—Micky Hammond (0/9)

2—Tina Jackson (2/9 +9)

2—Iain Jardine (0/4)

2—Paul Midgley (2/22 - +2)

2—John Quinn (4/27 – loss of 7 points)

2—Karen Tutty (4/23 - +20)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £102.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £138.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Chelmsford: This appears to be a new meeting on the calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 25

SANDOWN – MAY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £311.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 10 (Silver Ghost), 4 (Boycie), 5 (Icebuster) & 12 (The Major)

Leg 2 (6.30): 5 (Sound And Silence), 2 (Frozen Angel) & 1 (Chagati)

Leg 3 (7.05): 5 (Vent de Force), 2 (Big Orange) & 4 (Higher Power)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (So Mi Dar) & 7 (Chain Of Daisies)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Zainhom) & 2 (Rodaini)

Leg 6 (8.40): 10 (Timeless Art), 9 (Makzeem) & 8 (Midhmaar)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

 

6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 28 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the last eight winners (16/1-10/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are seven representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be SILVER GHOST, BOYSIE and THE MAJOR.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, ICEBUSTER could claim another course victory.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites thus far have snared give gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the course winners in the opening race: 

1/5—Icebuster (good)

1/2—Kath’s Legacy (good to firm)

1/7—Jack Of Dimaonds (good)

 

6.30: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last ten renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason that the team is not represented this year, though I have left the stats in for my (our) records.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that although Charlie Appleby’s impressive unbeaten run with his early juveniles has ended, SOUND AND SILENCE justified favouritism at Newmarket on the first day at school and though the Exceed And Excel colt faces a tough opponent here in FROZEN ANGEL, I will stick with the unbeaten form line tonight.  Tom Dascombe (Frozen Angel) does not run many two-year-olds at the track which you can look at in two different ways.  All eight of his juveniles have been beaten here during the last five years but on the other hand, the trainer must think a great deal of his impressive Ascot winner to take on this difficult assignment.  CHAGATI is the potential big improver in the field, albeit his Bath victory leaves a lot to work on in respect of the opposition.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby CHAGATI is included in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Five of the last nineteen favourites have won whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 32 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  Even now, just one four-year-old has been offered the green light, namely the 40/1 outsider Berghain.  Regular readers will know that staying events leave yours truly luke-warm at best, and this is another contest which failed to light the blue touch paper from my viewpoint.  If we have to bank on the likes of BIG ORANGE to justify favouritism in a Group 3 event then we are in trouble and that is the scenario that has been set before us on this occasion.  At 12/1, VENT DE FORCE make more appeal (especially) from an each way/Placepot perspective, particularly as Hughie Morrison has his horses in good nick just now, four of his last eleven runners having scored.  HIGHER POWER is named ahead of Quest For More in receipt of seven pounds from the long standing Roger Charlton raider.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Henry II’ contest: 

2/3—Vent De Force (good to firm & good to soft)

 

7.40: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 16 of the last 20 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 13 victories during the extended study period, which includes eleven of the last fifteen contests.  SO MI DAR was pulled out of a race at York last week and these conditions are far more favourable in what appears to be an easier contest.  As long as she does not appear too fresh in the preliminaries (she can pull hard through her races), all should be well en route to better things this summer.  Autocratic deserves another chance at this level, though slight preference is for five-year-old CHAIN OF DAISIES in terms of being the main threat to SO MI DAR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 17 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Sandown record of course winners in the ‘Brigadier Gerard’: 

1/1—Autocratic (good to firm)

1/1—Baydar (good to soft)

1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)

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8.10: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last eleven winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin) given Michael's ten successes down the years.  ZAINHOM has been offered the green light on this occasion, though this is a tough enough ask on just his fifth assignment.  That said, Michael's Street Cry colt was a good winner at York last year (albeit under softer conditions), whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is expected to score from RODAINI.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty years. Fourteen of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 24 gold medals (including nine of the last fifteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion should prove to be TIMELESS ART, MAKZZEM and MIDHMAAR in a fascinating toteplacepot finale.  Karl Burke’s northern raider TIMELESS ART (9/1 in places) is the value for money call from a win perspective, especially with five pound claimer Clifford Lee in the saddle, the young pilot having steered two of his last seven mounts to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last thirteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of course winners in the Placepot finale: 

2/7—Secret Art (good & soft)

2/2—Sir Roderic (Good & good to soft)

1/4—Laidback Romeo (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Richard Hannon (0/5)

3—Rod Millman (No runners)

2—Michael Bell (No runners)

2—Karl Burke (No runners)

2—Henry Candy (No runners)

2—Roger Charlton (1/1 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Clive Cox (1/3 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Ed Dunlop (No runners)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/4)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (1/2 – Profit of 2 points)

2—James Tate (No runners)

2—Chris Wall (0/1)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £111.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Goodwood: £121.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Warwick: £121.90 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £37.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Hope is High @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 Prominent early, tracked leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, about 1 length down when tightened up and lost 2nd well inside final furlong, lost 3rd post

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Warwick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bronco Billy5/2 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding who was a winner last time out, 27 days ago. That was over a slightly shorter trip, but he has won over today's trip as a hurdler.

His trainer Jonjo O'Neill has a steady, if unspectacular overall record here at Warwick since 2013 with 18 winners from 137 (13.1% SR) for 39.3pts (+28.7% ROI) profit, but his handicappers do considerably better at 13/80 (16.25%) for 44.8pts (+56%) and we'll focus on these 80 'cappers, who are also...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 43.6pts (+90.8%) at Class 4
  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 48.2pts (+102.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 6/38 (15.8%) for 33.1pts (+87%) within 4 weeks of their last run
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 25.6pts (+88.3%) at 3m1f-3m2f
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 15.2pts (+58.5%) on good ground
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 9.9pts (+82.5%) from LTO winners

In addition to the above, since the start of 2011 in Class 4 chases, males aged 6 to 9 who won a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 4 to 75 days earlier, went on to win again on 198 of 693 (29% SR) occasions for profits of 122.5pts (+17.9% ROI), with those racing over trips of 2m 4.5f to 3m 2f winning 104 of 347 (30%) for 138.3pts (+39.8%)

And finally, since 2010...Jonjo O'Neill's handicap chasers priced at 12/1 and shorter who were LTO winners in the previous 30 days are 26/118 (22% SR) for 16.63pts (+11.6% ROI) with those racing over 3m to 3m 1.5f winning 7 of 36 (19.4%) for 19.05pts (+52.9%)

...producing...a 1pt win bet on Bronco Billy5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but those able to grab the 11/4 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday May 16

BEVERLEY – MAY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £27.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 10 (Spoof) & 11 (The Right Choice)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mt Strutter) & 8 (Whigwham)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Socalites Red), 2 (Bond Bombshell) & 4 (Oriental Splendour)

Leg 4 (3.30): 7 (Gerry The Glover), 6 (Sovereign Bounty) & 3 (Jacbequick)

Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (True Romance), 3 (Miss Bates) & 4 (Ode To Glory)

Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Rooster The Booster), 4 (Copper Baked) & 5 (The Raven Master)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: I hope some of you were on my 33/1 winner Englishman at Windsor last night!  Charlie Hills followed up a Chester winner last week with another gold medallist a few days later and his Poet’s Voice colt SPOOF is the obvious place to start following two half decent efforts to date.  THE RIGHT CHOICE appears to be the principle Richard Fahey raider via his two declarations with Paul Hanagan doing the steering.  Richard leads the way at Beverley this season, boasting a 4/17 ratio at the track, with winners recorded at 6/1, 4/1, 4/1 & 6/4* thus far.  Tom Dascombe could celebrate his fourth juvenile winner of the season as PORCHY PARTY ran well enough over course and distance at the first time of asking to suggest that there could be small race victory on the horizon en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This was a new race on the Beverley card last year, 'new' in the sense that races changing from maidens to novice status are deemed to be inaugural events by the BHA. Fortunately for the majority of punters, the 7/4 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.30: John Quinn’s runners are regularly reaching the frame with the odd winner posted here and there, including one at the big Chester meeting last week. MR STRUTTER scored in half decent fashion at Thirsk the last day and a repeat of that showing would probably be good enough to land this weak event.  In receipt of ten pounds, WHIGWHAM should offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include two winners which were both returned at 15/8.

 

3.00: 35/40 toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-4 or less and I would not put anyone off a small punt on SOCIALITES RED (one of six runners that qualify via the weight stats) in another race on the card which fails to set the pulse racing.  Scott Dixon has greeted three of his last eleven runners in the area reserved for winners (27 points of level stake profit during the period), with Scott’s representative having been one of the relevant gold medallists at Nottingham last week.  A six pound penalty for that success is negated by a seven pound claimer who was in the plate at Colwick Park.  BOND BOMBSHELL has recorded three course and distance victories under fast conditions and providing the wet stuff is not in evidence, David O’Meara’s raider can go close, the trainer having only saddled more turf winners at Ripon that he has managed here at Beverley during the course of the last five years.  David’s 38 winners have produced level stake profit of over 30 points for good measure.  ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR is my idea of the speculative option in the contest with Ruth Carr continuing to send out winners in what could well be a record year for the trainer.  Ruth’s 14 winners this season have produced ten points of LSP.

Favourite factor: Seven of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner) via 13 renewals.

Beverley record of course winners in the third event on the card:

3/7—Bond Bombshell (3 x good to firm)

1/3—Jack Luey (soft)

2/10—Thatcherite (2 x good)

1/17—Tinsill (good)

 

3.30: Nine of the ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5, whilst five-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around. GERRY THE GLOVER and SOVEREIGN BOUNTY are the two entries with ticks in both of the trend boxes, with course specialist JACBEQUICK added into the Placepot mix.  ‘Jac’ has gained all five successes to date at this venue.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

Beverley record of course winners in the fourth contest:

2/4—Rousayan (2 x good)

5/17—Jacbequick (3 x good to firm – good – heavy)

2/4—Sovereign Bounty (good & good to firm)

1/2—Gerry The Glover (good)

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4.00: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminates the bottom four (of ten) horses on this occasion. The pick of the remaining six suspects will hopefully prove to be the speculative trio of TRUE ROMANCE, MISS BATES and ODE TO GLORY.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five winners.

 

4.30: Given that this is the second heat of the previous event, the three horses from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap to home in on appear to be ROOSTER THE BOOSTER, COPPER BAKED and THE RAVEN MASTER.  This trio look certain to land the dividend between them for us, if we are ‘live’ going into the finale.

Favourite factor: Thus is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby the same stats apply.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track following three meetings + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (4/17 – Profit of 2 points)

6—Mark Johnston (2/14 – loss of 8 points)

5—Tim Easterby (0/14)

5—David O’Meara (2/16 – loss of 2 points)

4—Brian Ellison (0/2)

3—Karl Burke (2/6 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/9 – Profit of 6 points)

3—John Wainwright (0/2)

2—James Bethell (0/1)

2—John Butler (No runners)

2—Declan Carroll (0/3)

2—Roger Fell (0/4)

2—Ollie Pears (0/1)

2—John Quinn (0/2)

2—Nigel Tinkler (0/8)

+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £2.466.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Sedgefield: £26.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (NH): £74.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Warwick: This is a new replacement meeting for Wincanton

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday May 13

ASCOT – MAY 13

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £425.12 - 40 favourites - 9 winners - 7 placed - 24 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Lord George), 7 (Mornington) & 2 (Southdown Lad)

Leg 2 (2.50): 9 (UAE Prince) & 5 (Knights Table)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Artistocratic) & 4 (Permission)

Leg 4 (4.00): 2 (Remarkable), 22 (Taurean Star), 15 (George William) & 6 (Bossy Guest)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Aqabah) & 1 (Cardsharp)

Leg 6 (5.10): 19 (Nightingale Valley), 17 (Storm Line), 21 (Picket Valley), 6 (Rio Ronaldo) & 4 (War Whisper)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 15 of the 18 available Placepot positions via 53% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the six winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The six vintage representatives this time around are 5/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted in a potential eleven runner field. My preferred short listed in order of preference is LORD GEORGE, MORNINGTON and SOUTHDOWN LAD.  William Hunter is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared three toteplacepot positions via six renewals, statistics which include one (13/8) winner.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—William Hunter (good)

 

2.50: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 via eleven contests to date, whilst the last ten gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. If the vintage trends are to rule the day again, I fancy UAE PRINCE to deny a big race winner for James Tate who saddles the improving four-year-old KNIGHTS TABLE.  The bronze medal could be snared by Baydar in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites (six winners) have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Star Storm (good)

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 22 of the 32 available toteplacepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the seven vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be ARISTOCRATIC, PERMISSION and TEGARA, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. The reserve nomination is awarded to the course and distance winner SINGYOURSONG.

Favourite factor: Only three of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

1/1—Singyoursong (good to firm)

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (14 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of REMARKABLE (drawn 13/27), TAUREAN STAR (7), GEORGE WILLIAM (23) and BOSSY GUEST (24) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SQUATS (6).

Favourite factor: Eight of the 20 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include three winners.

Draw details for the last ten years (most recent renewal listed first):

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winner in the Victoria Cup:

2/5—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)

2/7—Outback Traveller (good & good to soft)

1/8—Squats (good to firm)

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1/3—Kadrizzi (good to firm)

2/14—Heaven’s Guest (good to soft & soft)

2/4—Taurean Star (good to firm & good to soft)

1/4—Professor (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this is listed as a new race which I cannot fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that five newcomers take on one experienced runner (CARDSHARP) who won on debut in a low key event at Brighton.  A six pound penalty might stop the Mark Johnston raider in his tracks accordingly, especially with AQABAH having been declared to run by Charlie Appleby.  Charlie has won with all three juveniles this season, whilst his Exchange Rate representative has the big Listed race at Redcar on his agenda at the back end of the season.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (11/4-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 15 of the 22 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-2 from a win perspective via just the six renewals) whereby my ‘short list’ consists of NIGHTINDALE VALLEY (11/25), STORM MELODY (2), PICKET LINE (3) and WAR WHISPER (8). If an entry belies the weight trend this time around, RIO RONALDO (17) could be the horse in question.  Can there ever have been a 25 runner handicap race at Ascot on a Saturday before where there are no course winners in the field?

Favourite factor: All six market leaders have finished out with the washing in the toteplacepot finale.

Draw details:

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their winners (and prices) via two meetings this season:

3 runners—Marco Botti

3—Richard Fahey

3—James Fanshawe

3—Richard Hannon (winner at 7/2)

3—David Simcock

2—David Barron

2—Michael Bell (winner at 9/2)

2—Owen Burrows

2—Mick Channon

2—Michael Easterby

2—Davis Elsworth

2—John Gosden

2—William Haggas

2—Richard Hughes

2—Dean Ivory

2—Mark Johnston

2—Daniel Mark Loughnane

2—Jeremy Gask

2—William Knight

2—Mike Murphy

2—Amanda Perrett

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian (winner at 5/1)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock (Mixed meeting): £690.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £90.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Nottingham: £337.60 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Thirsk: £391.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Hexham: £141.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Warwick: £19.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced