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Racing Insights, 10th December 2020

Nobody expected Casimir du Clos to try and make all at Hexham today, but that's what he did to good effect. The veteran (and my preference) Skipping On launched a valiant attempt to reel the winner in and got close before the stone and a half he was conceding finally took its toll. I lost a couple of quid, but 2nd at 11/2 was a decent effort.

Not enough to get me off the cold list, but I'm game if nothing else, so I'll dust myself off and go again for Thursday's racing, whose feature of the day is the informative and visually inspiring Instant Expert tab for all races, including the full free cards for...

  • 12.52 Warwick
  • 1.27 Warwick
  • 2.05 Tramore
  • 2.25 Newcastle
  • 3.40 Tramore

A slightly different take on proceedings today, as I look at the 1.27 Warwick, which is the most interesting (to me anyway!) of the five free races. It's a 7-runner, Listed Novice Chase for 4yo+ mares over 2m4½f on soft ground and it's worth winning at a top prize of £11,746.

Zambella is our 2/1 favourite here and I fully expect her to go on and win the race, based on the way she won last time out. It was just her fifth UK start and her chasing debut, but she still won a Listed contest on soft ground despite making a mess of the last fence and she had won her last two races on French soil, both on very soft ground. She's up 5lbs for the win, but there's plenty more to come from her and she's the one to beat/back here.

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So why are you looking at this, Chris?

Well, as you know, I'm not massively fond of backing favs at 2/1 and shorter, so I'm looking to see if any of the others stand out as more obvious types for a forecast or even tricast bet here.

My first action is to cross Liberty Bella off the list, she's 0 from her last 10, hasn't looked like winning any of them and is 25/1 and bigger for a reason, this leaves me with five to consider for my two placers.

And I'm going to be ruthless here and discard both Flow Away and Diva de Vassy at this stage. Flow Away has undoubted ability, as shown when second in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle on Heavy ground last time out, but she's never tackled a chase before and the form of that hurdle race hasn't really worked out well. Diva de Vassy, however, did actually win last time out, but only by a length in a poor Class 4 contest.

She was aided by the re-opposing Midnightreferendum falling when easily travelling best of all and eventual runner-up Shesasupermack making a mess of the second last. Jockey Page Fuller retains the ride and I'd prefer a more experienced rider in a race like this. I'm sure Page is very good, but she's inexperienced and doesn't win often enough.

So that leaves us with our fav and three possibles as we look at the pace make-up of the race...

Here we see that prominent runners have won 14 of the 23 (60.9% SR) similar contests in recent years, but we've three who fit that bill here, whilst I'd expect Zambella to be waited with whilst the front three take each other on. One of them will have to set the pace or Zambella could turn it into a procession late on.

Legends Gold has made all in two of her five wins to date and fell 2 out at Uttoxeter having made all the running last time out too. Midnightreferendum has never set the pace in any of her 13 starts to date, whilst Pink Legend's best efforts have come when tracking the lead rather than setting the pace. All of which makes Legends Gold the vulnerable one of the three, so she's going to be the odd one out here. I just feel she'll attempt to set the fractions and get picked off by the other three.

Which leaves us with a final three of Zambella who I expect to win, Midnightreferendum and Pink Legend. Both of my suggested placers are offspring of the mighty Midnight Legend, whose daughters have done very well in soft (or worse) ground chases for many a year, but which one will prevail here?

Well, let's quickly assess this...
FORM  : Pink Legend won last time out, Midnight was a faller
CHASING : Pink is 1 from 1, Midnight is 1 from 2
GOING : Pink has 3 wins and a place from 6 on soft or worse (2/3 on soft), Midnight has a win and two places from three on soft
DISTANCE : Pink has won at the trip, whilst Midnight hasn't won beyond 2m3.5f
JOCKEY : Pink has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 under Charlie Deutsch, who has ridden her more times than anyone else, whilst Midnight is 1 from 2 under Tom Bellamy, as she's normally ridden by Wayne Hutchinson.
TRACK : Pink hasn't raced here before, Midnight is 2 from 2 at this venue

Throw in the long-standing record of Venetia Williams' runners in testing conditions and I'm leaning towards Pink Legend.

Summary

Zambella should be winning this and whilst 2/1 isn't normally attractive to me, I think it's about right. I then have Pink Legend (9/2) ahead of Midnightreferendum (4/1) for the place money, but it should be tight.

Racing Insights, 6th November 2020

Friday's feature of the day is the Horses for Courses report, which is exactly as the names suggests, horses who have previously gone well at that track they're running at next, whilst our free racecards cover the following half dozen contests...

  • 1.10 Hexham
  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 8.05 Newcastle

My horses for courses report looks like this today...

... Tathmeen and Great Colaci both run in 14-runner handicaps and such large fields hold no interest for me, whilst Little Jo's three wins only contain one in the last 2 years, so I'm not going there either.

That sends me back to the free races and my lack of appetite for the big fields leave me with the 2.10 Warwick : a 9-runner Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f (+92yds from advertised) on Good (Good to Soft in places) ground worth £4289 for the winner, whose card looks like this...

The runners with blue numbers next to their name (Billy Bronco, Dentley de Mee, The Toojumpa and Accordingtogino) are of immediate interest to me, as they feature on my query tool report. From a trainer icon (14 30 C1 C5) perspective Billy Bronco, Dentley de Mee and Accordingtogino are positives, as is Antony, whilst Western Climate's yard seems out of form with a current run of 28 losers.

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Thomas Shelby and Accordingtogino appeal from the jockey stats, whilst the Geegeez Speed ratings suggest there's not a great deal between the top five.

The going isn't as bad as it could well have been here, but 3m2f still takes some getting and I'm keen to find runners suited to the trip/class and I'm also interested in those with obvious stamina. The place to find such information is, of course, the Instant Expert tab, where I've used the place tab to give me a bit more data about the runners' chasing prowess...

...and Western Climate / Thomas Shelby are the ones screaming "look at me" here, whilst in this type of  raxce, we're advised that a horse racing is a prominent position would do well, which makes perfect sense as it's not easy to win a 3m2f chase from the front, but easier to be there or thereabouts ready to pick the leader off late on. Numerically, that looks like this...

and our 9 runners have recently been running like this...

...so I'd probably want to be looking at Thomas Shelby, Accordingtogino, The Toojumpa here and possibly Western Climate too.

Now with yesterday's piece, I showed you one way of going through the card to eliminate runners step by step to eventually leave a shortlist of possibles and that approach will either work for your approach or you'd want to do it differently, so here's another way forward. Quite simply, do the above analysis and see which names keep popping up and in this case, it's Thomas Shelby and Accordingtogino, so I'm going to quickly look at their credentials to see if the racecard and its associated data has led me to a bet or not...

Thomas Shelby : is, I suppose an out and out chaser. 0 from 7 in Bumpers/Hurdles contests, but has finished 3P14231 over fences, all at this Class 4 and also has a win and two places from three PTP races over 3m on Good/Good to Soft ground.

31-60 days rest looks his optimal time off the track (2 wins from 3) and he comes here off the back of a very comfortable win over 3m0.5f at Bangor. He's up in trip here, but that run was on Soft ground, so stamina should be fine. He's also up 8lbs for the win, but did come home some 12 lengths clear without really exerting himself. Danseur du Large was back in 3rd (41 lengths adrift) that day, but he has since won over 3m2f at Fontwell a fortnight ago, so that will hopefully frank the form.

Accordingtogino : just his second attempt over fences, although he did win a soft/heavy ground 3m PTP and he probably needed the run when soundly beaten on his chasing bow at Lingfield a fortnight ago.

He was held up on soft ground and eventually trailed home 6th of 8, some 42 lengths off the pace, but as well as being his first crack at fences, it was also his first outing for almost 8 months.

Prior to that, he had made the frame in seven of his eight hurdle starts, including a couple of Class 3 contests. His best efforts have come on Good to Soft or worse, so he'll be praying for rain, I'd assume.

Summary

It's probably easier to start with Accordingtogino, obviously talented over hurdles, but I think he might need another run or two over fences before realising his potential and as this looks a very competitive contest 8/1 looks a bit skinny for me to be interested. If you could get 12/1 for an E/W punt, I'd not dissuade you from having a quid or two, but you do want more than 8's and you don't want big stakes.

As for Thomas Shelby, he's actually the one I like most of all nine runners, but you could make a case for half a dozen of them and he's a 7/2 to 4/1 shot in my books, so Bet365's 9/2 offering looks very tempting. I'll play at that price not just because I like his chances but also because of the perceived value.

It's a race where you'd be forgiven for walking away, mind. it's far too competitive for proper staking in my opinion, but like Matt says in his webinars, we do like an "action bet" ie a couple of quid for interest/entertainment. So, that's where I'm at : a small bet at 9/2 with the obvious caveat that any of half a dozen could win and we could finish 6th!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS