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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th May

ASCOT – MAY 12

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)

Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH.  Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)

 

2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21).  It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80.  Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.

Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):

18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

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23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:

1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)

2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW.  Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals).  MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.

Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.

Draw details:

22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th May

BATH – MAY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £191.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.3% units went through – 8/1 – 20/1 – 7/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 2: 44.3% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 4/1 – 5/1 (11/4)

Race 3: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* & 16/1

Race 4: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 5: 39.4% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 16.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 & 12/1 (11/8)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Karalini) & 10 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Prominna), 6 (Burauq) & 10 (Black Truffle)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Spirit Of Zebedee), 10 (Divine Call) & 6 (Dreams Of Glory)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Barbill) & 8 (Cloud Seeding)

Leg 5 (4.35): 4 (Tricksy Spirit), 2 (Rock Of Estonia) & 9 (Aquadabra)

Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Cent Flying) & 3 (Glamorous Rocket)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • I hope you had part of the Placepot dividend yesterday, given that we had 40p of the £512.10 dividend = a return of £216.84 – following a ‘successful pot’ at Newmarket the previous day.

 

2.15: Boasting a ratio of 7/9 here at Bath this season, Mick Channon will be coming to one of his ‘local’ tracks in confident mode and KARALINI is the only horse in the contest that punters want to know at the time of writing.  SIGNORA CABELLO is the mount of Silvestre De Sousa who has ridden three winners for John Quinn whereby the chance for this long distance traveller is respected.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Bath with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Tony Carrol has had his runners in good form for some time now and though good to soft was registered when scoring here at Bath, George Downing could be in the thick of this at the business end of proceedings aboard this Proclamation gelding who is a four time gold medallist.  Others for the melting pot include BURAUQ and BLACK TRUFFLE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Langham Vale (good to soft)

1/4—Prominna (good to soft)

2/14—Burauq (good to soft & good to firm)

1/8—Spellmaker (firm)

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3.25: Silvestre takes his second ride for John Quinn and in a weak contest, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE can surely reach the frame in this grade/company.  Connections probably have most to fear from the likes of DIVINE CALL and DREAMS OF GLORY.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

3/6—Compton Prince (2 x good to firm & firm)

5/27—Dreams Of Glory (2 x good to firm – 2 x firm – good)

2/11—Divine Call (good & good to soft)

 

4.00: Mick Channon saddles the second of his three runners on the card and BARBILL cannot be excluded from the mix given Mick’s record at the track this term.  At the prices on offer, Ginger Nut could be worth opposing whereby CLOUD SEEDING is added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished well down the field in which horses sent off at 20/1-12/1-14/1 filled the frame, a result which had a great influence of the great Placepot dividend of £2,037.80.  Last year’s race went to plan for supporters of the 3/10 market leader.

 

4.35: There will be worse outsiders on the card than AQUADBRA I’ll wager who has her first run for Christopher Mason, having been previously stabled at Mick Channon’s yard.  Talking of Mick, his third and final contender at the meeting is TRICKSY SPIRIT, whilst ROCK OF ESTONIA (winner on this card twelve months ago) completes my trio against the remaining six declarations.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite last year finished nearer last than first (sixth of eight).

Bath record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Rock On Estonia (firm)

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

5.10: CENT FLYING looks to be something of a banker in the lucky last (from a Placepot perspective), with GLAMOROUS ROCKET marginally preferred to Inuk as the main threat.

Bath record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cent Flying (good)

 

Bath record of course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.45:

1/3—King Crimson (good to soft)

1/20—Swendab (good to firm)

3/21—Jaganory (firm – good to soft – soft)

4/17—Milly Jones (4 x firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th April

BEVERLEY – APRIL 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £606.57 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 86.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* - 50/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 4: 25.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 18/1 – 14/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 40.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 5/1 – 8/1 (2 x 9/2**)

Race 6: 74.7% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 & 6/4*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Acclaim The Nation), 14 (Crosse Fire) & 15 (Cameo Star)

Leg 2 (2.00): 6 (Jensue), 11 (Shumookhi) & 12 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Shazzab) & 2 (Exhort)

Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Song Of Summer), 10 (Onefootinparadise) & 2 (Scenic River)

Leg 5 (3.45): 5 (Rita’s Man), 1 (Liquid Gold) & 8 (Bollin Ted)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (Inflexiaball) & 5 (Vigee Le Brun)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: The last nine winners have carried nine stones or more to victory, though the stat is not all that impressive as all bar one of the fifteen runners this time around qualify via the weight trend.  You’ll note that one runner has already defected whereby we ‘Potters’ are denied a fourth place, by way of a change! Upwards and onward by suggesting that ACCLAIM THE NATION, CROSSE FIRE and CAMEO STAR should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Grandad’s World.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have prevailed, whilst eight of the last twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  All twelve winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the five course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Jacob’s Pillow (good to firm)

1/2—Acclaim The Nation (good to soft)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/1—Cameo Star (good to firm)

2/9—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

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2.00: Of the horses I short listed overnight, only JENSUE has remained ‘in positive mode’ on the exchanges, with the likes of SHUMOOKHI and SIGNORA CABELLO proving easy to back.  It’s bad enough trying to fathom between two or more Richard Fahey horses in any race, but particularly so in an event for juveniles!  Either way, Piccothepack and Immokolee are not going to offer value for money anyway (particularly from a Placepot perspective) so I will stick to my original thoughts.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed at odds of 4/9 and Evens to date.

 

2.35: I talked about two runners in a race in the previous event for Richard Fahey as usually proving to be a tough ask and this race is no different, even though his horses are split at either end of the market at the time of writing.  To make matters worse, there was more interest is Richard’s outsider SHAZZAB than for EXHORT overnight, the potential favourite for the contest.  Either way, Richard is on a hat trick in the contest and with recent showers having gone against Alfa McGuire (2/2 at the track on fast ground), I’ll opt for Richard’s pair against the other four contenders in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three winners at 13/8, 2/1 & 9/4***.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/2—Alfa McGuire (2 x good to fim)

 

3.10: Eleven of the fifteen toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones, statistics which include all five (7/1-13/2-4/1-4/1-2/1*) winners. Unfortunately just the one horse is eliminated from my Placepot thoughts via the weight trend, leaving SONG OF SUMMER (my each way call in the contest), ONEFOOTINPARADISE and SCENIC RIVER to carry my Placepot cash.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (2/1) winner.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer and the pick of this year’s quartet of vintage representatives appear to be RITA’S MAN, LIQUID GOLD and BOLLIN TED.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this ‘Rapid Lad’ handicap have changed whereby the contest as it stands now has just five renewals to consider, with three of the seven market leaders finishing in the frame (exact science) – no winners.  Rapid Lad (the race is named after the grand servant) won 12 races at Beverley between 1983 and 1989 during an unbeaten record at the venue.  Strange but true for such a prolific scorer, is the fact that Rapid Lad failed to win anywhere else, other than at Beverley.

Record of the five course winners in field:

1/2—Liquid Gold (good to firm)

1/2—Metronomic (good)

3/6—Bollin Ted (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Paddy’s Rock (good)

2/10—John Caesar (2 x soft)

 

4.20: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.  Call me cynical by all means but I find it ‘strange’ that all five course winners have been drawn against each other in the first division of this event, or is my comment ‘unworthy’?  The pick of the four-year-olds in the second heat could prove to be VIGEE LE BRUN according to the gospel of yours truly, though money for INFLEXIBALL overnight suggests that John Mackie’s raider could bring an end to the four-year-old domination of this event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (no winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 28th March

WINCANTON – MARCH 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13,527.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 69.8% units went through – 10/1, 4/1 & 11/4*

Race 2: 35.6% of the remaining units when through – 5/2** & 33/1 (5/2**)

Race 3: 78.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 8/15*

Race 4: 1.5% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 (Win only – 4/5* unplaced)

Race 5: 28.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 6/1 (10/3*)

Race 6: 4.5% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 & 33/1 (4/6*)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 3 (Darcy Ward)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Innisfree Lad), 5 (Lex Talionis) & 8 (Daytime Ahead)

Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Hope’s Wishes), 3 (Rouergate) & 5 (She’s Gina)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (City Supreme) & 4 (Somchine)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Sonoftheking), 1 (Achille) & 2 (Blackmill)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Unioniste) & 2 (Carraig Mor)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Apologies for the late arrival of the scheduled 7.00 service on Platform 1 this morning - several family members misbehaving on the line just outside Bristol...

 

2.00: This is how I started last year’s corresponding analysis’; “The following statement could hardly be classed as ‘rocket science’ but fellow ‘Potters’ will hopefully appreciate what is meant when stating that the Wincanton dividend could just as easily pay five pounds today as £5k.  The ‘make up’ of the races suggest that a small dividend is the call though such is the fragility of the form of the horses on offer at the track today that literally anything could happen”.  If you look above, you will determine that there was a huge dividend declared but the amazing point to consider for all people considering playing the Placepot on a regular basis, is that at the halfway stage, the Placepot was only paying £3.73 before developing into £13,537.30 three races later!  The other point to consider today is the ground as rain is still raining here in Bristol which is not too far north of Wincanton.  The wet stuff is on the radar to hit Wincanton from the time of writing until lunchtime.  CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK will have few (if any) problems with the conditions whereby his is the first name on the team sheet ahead of DARCY WARD who won on his last start on soft going.  It’s worth noting that Nick Schofield rode Run To Milan the last day he won but the popular pilot partners Darcy Ward on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite was beaten in a win only contest behind the 9/1 winner of what was the fourth race on the card twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/2—Captain Cattistock (soft & heavy)

 

2.30: INNISFREE LAD is the call on this ground, especially as the drop back in trip will mean that he will be staying on strongly when others of cried enough, the pick of which are nominated as LEX TALIONIS and another ‘mud merchant’ in DAYTIME AHEAD.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won three of the last seven renewals though that said, the other four gold medallists during the period were returned at priced ranging between 11/2 and 10/1.

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Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Stonemadforspeed (good)

2/4—Daytime Ahead (soft & heavy)

 

3.05: Heavy ground course winner HOPE’S WISHES has to be the each way call with the weather misbehaving (as usual) at the time of writing.  The fact that Venetia Williams ran 100/1 chance ROUERGATE at Cheltenham the other week is an indication that she should go well in this grade/company, whilst SHE’S GINA completes my trio against the other five contenders in what will hopefully remain a ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 8/15 favourite was beaten but ran well enough to secure a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Hope’s Wishes (heavy)

 

3.40: CITY SUPREME and SOMECHINE appeal as the value for money calls in this short field event with both horses able to act under the prevailing conditions.  CITY SUPREME has been off for a while and patience could be rewarded connections now, whilst SOMCHINE is something of a course specialist having recorded two of his six victories here at Wincanton.  It’s also worth noting that the Seamus Mullins representative has finished ‘in the three’ in 60% of his assignments to date.  New readers might want to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: One of the two 5/2 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position by winning this event last year.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/6—Somchine (soft & heavy)

 

4.15: You might have to hurry to obtain the respective prices of 10/1 and 25/1 about SONOFTHEKING and ACHILLE this morning, as I anticipate both horses being backed down to around the 7/1 and 16/1 marks by the time that the shops open for business later this morning.  This pair offer value for money from my viewpoint, whilst adding BLACKMILL into the Placepot equation.  Colin Tizzard confuses things towards the top of the market by running two horses, though The Cider Maker or Cucklington fail to appeal at the prices on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/3 favourite was unplaced in another short field contest on the card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Sonoftheking (soft)

1/2—Invicta Lake (good)

2/7—Cucklington (2 x soft)

4/11—Goring One (2 x soft – good – good to firm)

1/9—General Girling (heavy)

 

4.45: Although Distracted is a heavy ground course winner, the ten-year-old should be comfortable brushed aside in the company of UNIONISTE and CARRAIG MOR, though choosing between this pair is a tough call.  The two horses are listed in order of preference only because of the heavy ground success by the first named Paul Nicholls raider, whilst pilot David Maxwell will be riding with plenty of confidence given that his last two mounts won.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 4/6 market leader finished behind horses which filled the frame at 16/1 & 33/1 which put the icing on the Placepot cake and no mistake!

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Unioniste (heavy)

1/1—Distracted (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 11th March

MARKET RASEN – MARCH 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £56.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (First Drift) & 1 (Ballyvic Boru)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Rio Quinto) & 3 (Florry Knox)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Master Of Finance), 5 (Yourholidayisover) & 3 (Roxyfet)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (The Ogle Gogle Man), 5 (Iskabeg Lane) & 3 (Shanty Town)

Leg 5 (4.10): 12 (Aaron Lad), 3 (Head To The Stars) & 1 (Skipthecuddles)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Pennywell), 2 (What A Diva) & 9 (Flemerina)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Providing the relevant claimer can call on all five pounds of his allowance, FIRST DRIFT might be able to get the better of BALLYVIC BORU under these conditions.  CASH TO ASH could outrun his odds to take care of the other contenders.

Favourite factor: Three of the last seven renewals have been won by favourites, whilst the biggest priced winner during that period was returned at just 4/1.

 

2.30: RIO QUINTO and FLORRIE KNOX stand out from the small crowd in this short field event, the two runners being listed in order of preference.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/5 favourite duly landed the odds.

 

3.05: YOURHOLIDAYISOVER is one of the more likely ‘outsiders’ on the card which could actually score this afternoon, albeit the senior runner in the field might be pushed to get the better of MASTER OF FINANCE at the business end of the contest and (possibly) ROXYFET.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 market leader secured a Placepot position, though beaten by a 9/1 chance on the day.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Miss Conway (good)

 

3.35: The 7/1 quote in the trade press about THE OGLE GOGLE MAN always looked a tad fanciful, with 11/2 being a more logical price from my viewpoint.  ISKABEG LANE represents Sue Smith with a definite chance of extending her good run of results, whilst SHANTY TOWN is another consider over your breakfast/Sunday brunch.  The handicapper should be able to sleep easier in his/her bed tonight having potentially caught up with Knocknamona at last.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Market Rasen card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/5—Iskabeg Lane (good to soft)

 

4.10: Seven-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals and with vintage representatives AARON LAD and HEAD TO THE STARS hailing from the in form yards of Dr Richard Newland and Henry Daly respectively, this pair are the first names on the team sheet, followed by another vintage raider with each way claims, namely SKIPTHECUDDLES.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have obliged, whilst the 5/2 second favourite got the better of the market leader close home on the other occasion.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Doesyourdogbite (good)

1/2—Molly Childers (good to soft)

 

4.40: Sean Bowen won all four of his rides at Hereford on Saturday and having secured that 699/1 accumulator, the pilot will be riding with an amazing amount of confidence for one so young.  Sean climbs aboard WHAT A DIVA for his dad holding an obvious chance, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of PENNYWELL and FLEMERINA.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders have secured Placepot positions via two renewals thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—What A Diva (soft)

1/8—Milly Baloo (soft)

1/3—Flemarina (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Market Rasen card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3—Oliver Greenall (0/2) – 1/4 +2

3—Micky Hammond (1/9 – loss of 3 points) – 8/57 +12

3—Sue Smith (1/17 – loss of 12) – 9/81 – loss of 47

2—Jenny Candlish (1/7 – loss of 1 – 6/47 – loss of 23

2—Susan Corbett (1/16 – loss of 4) – 1/22 – loss of 10

2—Harry Fry (1/8 – loss of 6) – 5/23 – slight loss

2—Donald McCain (0/8) – 7/98 – loss of 28

2—Olly Murphy (4/17 +9) – 4/17 +9

2—Jonjo O’Neill (4/38 – loss of 26) – 35/220 – loss of 62

2—Colin Tizzard (0/1) – 0/3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/10 +6) – 8/39 +6

2—Mark Walford (2/22 – loss of 13

2—Evan Williams (1/3 +2) – 4/16 – loss of 1

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £51.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 23rd February

WARWICK – FEBRUARY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £81.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Warwick: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Indian Hawk) & 5 (Lygon Rock)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Jaboticaba) & 2 (Doctor Bartolo)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Sparkling River), 4 (Socksy) & 7 (Phoeniciana)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Knockgraffon), 5 (Cobra De Mai) & 2 (Bishops Road)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (American Life), 10 (Max Dynamo) & 4 (Asking Questions)

Leg 6 (4.40): 8 (Talk Of The South) & 5 (More Than Luck)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a five timer on this occasion.  Last year’s lone representative duly obliged, though LYGON ROCK (best chance this year from my viewpoint) might have his work cut out to beat INDIAN HAWK and LISDOONVARA LAD, despite the great form of trainer Henry Daly.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last twelve contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 9/1.  Market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) in eleven of the twelve relevant contests.

 

2.25: Olly Murphy throws three outsiders into the race that carries his name, though a look at the favourite stats below should tell you that horses up at the top end of the market tend to dominate. JABOTICABA and DOCTOR BARTOLO represent Alan King who invariably has plenty of decent four-year-olds in his care and this season is no exception.  Connections probably have most to fear from Thistimenextyear.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst the last twelve favourites have all secured toteplacepot positions.  Eight of the last nine winners have won at a top price of 5/2.

 

3.35: Henry Oliver has saddled his last two runners to winning effect and the record of his inmate SPARKLING RIVER here at Warwick (3/3) suggests that his place towards the top of the market is justified. That said, SOCKSY looks sure to make a race of it when the whips are raised, whilst the outstanding each way alternative option to offer is PHOENICIANA, though the 10/1 quote with Hills at the time of writing is unlikely to last long I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Warwick card.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

3/3—Sparkling River (good to soft – soft – heavy)

 

3.30: Eight of the nine Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-13, statistics which include three of the four winners at 7/2****, 7/2 & 7/4*.  I have left the stat in for those of you that keep records, albeit all seven runners qualify via the weight trend this time around.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that KNOCKGRAFFON, COBRA DE MAI and BISHOPS ROAD will get us into the penultimate leg of our favourite wager in this ‘short field’ event.  The trio is listed in order of preference, whilst new readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Three of the eight favourites to date have claimed Placepot positions via just four renewals.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Kayf Adventure (heavy)

1/2—Cobra De Mai (good)

1/1—Drumlee Sunset (good)

 

4.05: Predict A Riot will come good again one day I guess though for the time being, more consistent raiders such as AMERICAN LIFE, MAX DYNAMO and ASKING QUESTIONS attract the eye, albeit only from a Placepot perspective.  Readers could do worse that have a small saver on Phangio (still available at 28/1 in a place at the time of writing).

Favourite factor: The two (7/4 & 6/4) favourites have finished out with the washing this far.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—Goodnight Charlie (good to soft)

 

4.10: TALK OF THE SOUTH looks a fairly safe proposition from a Placepot perspective, as does FLY HOME HARRY to a fashion.  MORE THAN LUCK is the potential joker in the pack however, representing the Olly Murphy yard which will want to land a winner on the card for reasons mentioned in the second race.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Warwick programme.

Record of the course winner in the last leg:

1/2—Twojayslad (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Warwick card on Friday – followed by ratios at the track this season + five year figures & profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Olly Murphy (0/5) – 0/5

3—Ben Case (1/8 – loss of 1) – 5/38 +29

3—Oliver Greenall (0/3) – 0/3

3—Alan King (7/21 – loss of 4) – 30/121 – loss of 40

3—Ian Williams (2/13 +4) – 7/75 +26

2—Tom George (0/5) – 2/33 – loss of 12

2—Nicky Henderson 2/4 – slight profit) – 13/49 – loss of 8

2—Paul Henderson (0/5) – 2/17 – loss of 8

2—Philip Hobbs (2/12 – loss of 3) – 24/98 – loss of 8

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/12 – loss of 3) – 12/101 – loss of 43

2—Ben Pauling (0/10) – 10/41 +13

2—Peter Pritchard (First runners at Warwick this season) – 0/7

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/5) – 3/40 – loss of 29

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/26 – loss of 6) – 22/147 – loss of 52

2—Lucy Wadham (0/5) – 2/27 – loss of 16

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: £55.10 – 7 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £225.40 – 6 favourites. 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £46.60 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th February

NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £30.10 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Whatswrongwithyou) & 8 (Rockpoint)

Leg 2 (1.50): 2 (Barters Hill) & 4 (Bastien)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Saphir Du Rheu), 1 (Native River) & 2 (Cloudy Dream)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Politologue)

Leg 5 (3.35): 16 (Lalor), 21 (Silver Streak), 20 (Irish Roe) & 14 (Lough Derg Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Ibis Du Rheu), 5 (Duke Des Champs) & 7 (Reigning Supreme)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.15: It’s the changing of the (Newbury) guard on Saturday compared to twelve months ago when Nicky Henderson only held four entries on the day, having declared 12 (nearly 18% of the total number of declarations) this time around.  Out of interest, Paul Nicholls ‘held court’ last year with eight intended runners but drops back to half a dozen on this occasion.  Now that the housekeeping has been sorted, it’s worth noting that despite his dozen runners on the card, Nicky seemed intent on running WHATSWRONGWITHYOU in this opening event some time ago. Ok Corral franked the recent form of Nico’s mount yesterday at Kempton and there seems little (if no) reason to take on Nicky’s progressive seven-year-old this afternoon.  I fancy ROCKPOINT to chase the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 14 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won five of the last eight contests.  Ten of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Whatswrongwithyou (soft)

1.50: Seven-year-olds have secured seven of the last fourteen contests with BASTIEN being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Alan King is back among the winners (under both codes) and with a half decent conditional jockey aboard (rider of five winners thus far), Alan’s three time winner should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.  To expect any of the other horses in the field to cope with BARTERS HILL if back to his best would be fanciful in the extreme and with money coming for the favourite on the exchanges overnight, it’s impossible to ignore his claims.  The other potential winner in the line up is KING UTHER from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last nineteen years.  13 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/2—Barters Hill (2 x soft)

2.25: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the sixteen renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts.  Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti. SAPHIR DU RHEU is the vintage representative this year and it’s worth looking at the weights because although this is not a handicap, the penalties incurred by NATIVE RIVER brings the pair exactly on the marks that would meet in such a contest.   Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008.  Seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence but eight-year olds NATIVE RIVER and CLOUDY DREAM could narrow the recent margins. I will simply offer all three runners into the Placepot equation and hope that the best horse wins on the day.  The best horse is Native River but do prices of 4/5 over 9/2 over Saphir Du Rheu under the terms and conditions accurately weight up their chances?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

3/4—Native River (2 x good to soft & soft)

3.00: Paul Nicholls has won six of the last thirteen renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is POLITIOLOGUE with seven-year-olds having won three of the last four renewals.  That said, ALTIOR could still be viewed as the most underrated horse in training despite media attention, as Nicky Henderson’s High Chaparral gelding has won on his last eleven assignments, only having tasted defeat twice in his career following fourteen races.  His quote of 8/13 (Bet365) would have ‘probability factor types’ reaching for the phone/mouse in all…..probability!
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last eighteen renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. 16/19 market leaders reached the frame.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Game Spirit’:

1/2—Altior (soft)

1/2—Valdez (good)

3.35: Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only offered bet of the day) four years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for a long time now.  I followed that up by naming the following 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later.  Proving that I am not swayed by prices either way, last year’s successful 3/1 market leader was the first name on my team sheet!  50 of the last 60 horses to have claimed Placepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 13 of the last 15 relevant winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last eighteen gold medallists, the trainer not having been represented every year for good measure. Gary Moore has snared three of the last ten renewals (not represented twelve months ago), whilst five and six-year-olds have equally shared the last ten contests. Taking all the stats and facts into account my ‘short list’ comprises of LALOL, SILVER STREAK, IRISH ROE and LOUGH DERG SPIRIT. The quartet are just about listed in order of preference.  If there is a dark horse at 33/1 in the field which could blow the weight trend apart, MOON RACER fits the bill.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst eleven of the last nineteen market leaders secured Placepot positions during the period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Betfair Hurdle’:

3/3—High Bridge (2 x good to soft & soft)

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2/2—Jenkins (good & sfot)

1/6—Remiluc (soft)

1/2—Pappy Kay (good to soft)

4.10: IBIS DU RHEU could outrun his 10/1 quote this morning from my viewpoint with DUKE DES CHAMPS and REIGNING SPUPREME looking to be the potential party poopers if the Paul Nicholls raider is to be denied.  Either way, don’t expect that 10/1 quote to last too long this morning.  The 5/1 trade press call about DUKE DES CHAMPS is also looking generous at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the frame behind the 5/1 winner which was the first horse mentioned in my analysis.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

12 runners—Nicky Henderson (9/32 +12) – 46/177 – slight profit

6—Paul Nicholls (1/17 – loss of 12) – 25/160 – loss of 31

4—Alan King (2-19 – loss of 12) – 20/159 – loss of 60

4—Ben Pauling (2/18 – loss of 8) – 9/40 – loss of 5

3—Philip Hobbs (3/11 +6) – 24/122 +60

3—Jamie Snowden (0/4) – 1/20 – loss of 15

2—Sue Gardner (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2

2—Tom George (1/8 – loss of 5) – 6/69 – loss of 38

2—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 2/39 – loss of 26

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/5 – loss of 1) – 3/23 – loss of 6

2—David Pipe (3/9 +13) – 16/99 +1

2—Colin Tizzard (2/14 – loss of 4) – 12/81 – loss of 20

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £23.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £3.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Wolverhampton: £87.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £122.50 - 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.45 Chelmsford : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Tracked leader, driven to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace approaching final furlong...

We end another successful week with Saturday's...

4.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m in his final Point to Point race before starting his career under rules with three straight wins, all at 2m/2m0.5f on soft or heavy at Class 4 under today's jockey Harry Bannister.

So although his effort for a 4-timer is also a handicap debut, he should at least be accustomed to the race conditions.

His trainer, Harry Whittington, is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 12.12pts (+48.5% ROI) with handicap debutants and these include...

  • 21-150 days since last run : 7/20 (35%) for 17.12pts (+85.6%)
  • over hurdles : 4/18 (22.2%) for 1.09pts (+6%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.88pts (+32%)
  • on soft/heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 3.14pts (+62.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.55pts (+318.2%)

That stat re: LTO winners isn't really a surprise, as Harry's LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 11.46pts (+81.8% ROI) in handicaps just since the start of 2017!

And, since 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a Novice hurdle last time out in the previous 90 days, went on to score again on 162 of 893 (18.1%) for 146pts (+16.4%), including...

  • on handicap debut : 66/361 (18.3%) for 78.44pts (+21.7%)
  • 31-90 dslr : 54/304 (17.8%) for 95.04pts (+31.3%)
  • on soft ground : 40/226 (17.7%) for 40.1pts (+17.7%)
  • and here at Warwick : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.54pts (+45.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 25th January

WARWICK – JANUARY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £7.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Warwick: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 3 (Fields Of Fortune), 2 (Falcon Son) & 8 (Swaffham Bulbeck)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Molly The Dolly) & 4 (Sensulano)

Leg 3 (2.00): 4 (Yanmare), 3 (Whiskey Chaser) & 5 (The Artful Cobbler)

Leg 4 (2.35): 2 (Crucial Role), 3 (Polydora) & 4 (Fingerontheswitch)

Leg 5 (3.10): 8 (Grandturgeon) & 6 (Poole Master)

Leg 6 (3.45): 1 (Granard) & 3 (Not Normal)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.55: The stats and fact at the foot of the column can be misleading at times or at least, you have to sift your way through the ratio and draw your own conclusions.  Take Alan King’s record here this season as an example; given that the trainers boasts 7/18 figures though a minor loss to level stakes has been recorded.  This suggests that Alan wins with his short priced horses whereby FIELDS OF FORTUNE would be interesting if money arrives for Wayne Hutchinson’s mount, though that has not been the case so far this morning, albeit ‘early doors’.  Others of interest include FALCON SON and Olly Murphy’s newcomer SWAFFHAM BULBECK who is the trainer’s only raider anywhere in the country today.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 market leader was pulled up, the race going to the 6/4 second favourite.  The following 13/8 favourite also missed out on a Placepot position, before the next two (3/10 and even money) market leaders obliged.

 

1.25: The soft/heavy conditions should not stop MOLLY THE DOLLY in her tracks, albeit there is a semblance of support coming in for SENSULANO at the time of writing, with the other trio all proving very easy to back in the dead of night. That said, six pounds might not be enough to draw the pair together in the run to the line with Dan Skelton’s course and distance winner progressing along the right lines.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have won (2/1 & 5/4), though the other 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing.

Course records of the course winners in the second event:

1/1—Molly The Dolly (good to soft)

2.00: The cynic in yours truly suggests that the safest bet here would be to take a decent price about of the one ‘dead eight’ contenders jumping ship before entering the paddock.  Upwards and onward however, by informing that YANMARE was beaten in this event last year at odds of 4/5 in a win only contest.  Water Wagtail is becoming increasingly frustrating, whereby preference is for dual heavy ground winner WHISKEY CHASER and THE ARTFUL COBBLER who boasts a 1/3 record under heavy conditions.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Course records of the course winners in third race:

1/3—Milicent Silver (heavy)

1/3—Yanmare (soft)

1/4—Water Wagtail (good to soft)

 

2.35: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-5 have secured five of the nine available Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/1 & 9/2) of the three winners thus far.  Only two of the nine declarations ‘qualify’, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRUCIAL ROLE over POLYDORA, though both horses are entered into my Placepot mix. FINGERONTHESWIRCH often plods round into a place when completing the course whereby his double figure quote this morning catches the eye, though only from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured a medal of each colour in claiming Placepot positions along the way.

 

3.10:  GRANDTURGEON looks difficult to kick out of the frame in this Hunter Chase event, especially with Alex Edwards in the saddle, given that I am invariably swayed by adept pilots in these events.  That is a factor to take with you as the Hunter Chase season gather momentum from here on in.  Course winner POOLE MASTER will represent better value that the ex Paul Nicholls inmate Mon Parrain from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: All five favourites have obliged in this Hunter Chase event at odds of 1/2-11/10-5/4-9/4-3/1.

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Course records of the course winners in fifth on the card:

1/4—Poole Master (soft)

 

3.45:  GRANARD represents ‘lucky owners’ for Nigel Tiston-Davies in the finale and Daryl Jacob’s mount would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to go very close in this grade/company I’ll wager.  NOT NORMAL sets the standard from what we have witnessed to date, albeit the ‘high jump bar’ has not been raised very far off the ground as yet!
Favourite factor: Both (11/10 & 11/4) favourites sneaked into the respective frames last year via the inaugural divisions of this event, landing Placepot positions via bronze medals.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Warwick card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Dan Skelton (8/29 – loss of 1 point) – 27/80 +14

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 3) – 22/140 – loss of 45

3—Henry Daly (2/6 +7) – 8/56 – loss of 15

2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Warwick this season) – 1/17 – loss of 12

2—Alan King (7/18 – loss of 1) – 30/118 – loss of 37

2—Emma Lavelle (1/4 +8) – 2/39 – loss of 17

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/7) – 3/47 – loss of 8

2—Bill Turner (0/3) – 0/4

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kelso: This is a new meeting

Southwell: £12,993.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

6.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 7/2 Slowly into stride, towards rear, stayed on inside final furlong, never nearer...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.35 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Handicap Hurdle over 3m1.5f on Soft ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has made the frame in four of his last five starts, winning twice including last time out seven days ago over 3 miles on soft ground at this grade. Despite easing down on the run-in, he was still home a good 13 lengths ahead of his nearest rival to whom he was conceding 25lbs.

He comes from a yard in great form, as Henry Daly's runners have 3 wins and 2 places from 9 starts over the past fortnight with 2 winners and a placer from five over the last week. Jockey Richard Johnson is also in good nick, having ridden 9 winners from 40 in the fortnight.

Meanwhile, here at Warwick, Henry Daly is 15/112 (13.4% SR) for 14.04pts (+12.5% ROI) since 2009, whilst Richard Johnson's record over the last 6yrs here stands at 38/170 (22.4% SR) for 0.19pts (+0.11% ROI), showing that his success seems to attract punters' money.

On top of all the above, Mr Daly's handicap hurdlers are 46/291 (15.8% SR) for 96.2pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • at Class 3 : 12/86 (14%) for 32.9pts (+38.3%)
  • 6-25 days since last run : 18/77 (23.4%) for 30pts (+39%)
  • with Richard Johnson : 12/67 (17.9%) for 22.6pts (+33.8%)
  • and in January : 8/29 (27.6%) for 18.6pts (+64.1%)

...whilst over the last 2 years alone, his LTO winners are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 13.14pts (+29.2% ROI)...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG which was available from half a dozen outlets at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 13th January

KEMPTON – JANUARY 13

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

 

2017: £135.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Vaziani) & 1 (Redicean)

Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Chef Des Obeaux) & 4 (Secret Investor)

Leg 3 (1.30): 7 (Rothman), 1 (Bishop) & 3 (Exitas)

Leg 4 (2.05): 4 (Waiting Patiently) & 1 (Josses Hill)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Top Ville Ben), 9 (Spiritofthegames), 10 (Red Indian) & 2 (River Frost)

Leg 6 (3.15): 1 (Fountains Windfall), 5 (Ballykan) & 3 (The Young Master)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: It’s worth noting that Alan King (REDICEAN) is the only trainer to have saddled two recent winners of this ‘juvenile’ event.  That said, Robert Walford only held one option for the rest of the week after scoring with Kohuma at Taunton on Tuesday, that inmate being VAZIANI in this event.  5/1 looks a decent price (almost right across the board at the time of writing) about Robert’s debut Taunton winner who hails from a stable boasting recent stats of 8/29 (28% strike rate). Course form is always worth a length or three however whereby the chance of REDICEAN is highly respected especially here at Kempton, one of the fastest tracks in the country whatever relevant conditions are in situ.
Favourite factor: Favourites came to the gig on a four timer three years ago before the run was ended, though it’s worth noting that all 12 winners during the last 13 years have won at odds of 11/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Redicean (soft)

 

12.55: Nicky Henderson held a couple of options for this event at the penultimate entry stage, with the trainer showing the green light to both horses, namely CHEF DES OBEAUX and DUKE DEBARRY who are listed in order of preference.  Neither Nicky or Paul Nicholls (SECRET INVESTOR) have won this event thus far, though that stat looks about to change in this sixth renewal.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites filled the forecast positions four years ago before the next two (even money & 10/11) successful market leaders completed a clean sweep for jollies.  That was followed by two favourites which claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

 

1.30: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals with two decent types to represent the vintage this time around.  BISHOPS COURT looks solid Placepot material, though I latched onto the 14/1 Skybet odds about ROTHMAN this morning which looked well over the top.  12/1 is still available with four firms at the time of writing.  There was also money around for EXITAS (James Bowen takes off a useful five pounds) overnight and this trio will carry my Placepot cash.
Favourite factor: Just one (9/4) favourite has won via the five renewals thus far, though the bad news does not end there.  The other four market leaders all finished out of the frame resulting in tens of thousands of Placepot units going up in smoke in this race alone.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/3—Exitas (good)

1/5—Breath Of Blighty (good)

 

2.05: Three of the four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 which brings in this year’s lone qualifier JOSSES HILL into the mix, even though Nicky Henderson’s raider has not scaled the heights that looked imminent a few years back.  That said, JOSSES HILL seems to reserve some of his best work for this venue and he has taken on Top Notch in his last two races!. That all said, WAITING PATIENTLY only sits 16 ounces the wrong side of the ‘superior’ weight barrier, whereby Malcolm Jefferson’s highly impressive northern challenger deserves top billing, coming to the gig on a five timer.  Although Smad Place and Gods Own have both won at Kempton, their best efforts are reserved for more testing courses from my viewpoint, talented horses though they are.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged by 23 lengths before the following ten length gold medallist justified favouritism at even money.  We returned to ‘real life’ two years ago when the (Paul Nicholls trained) 2/5 favourite was the only horse (of the three contenders) to fail to complete the course, though the 5/4 market leader twelve months ago floored the majority of the bookmakers, on track at least.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/5—Josses Hill (good & soft)

1/3—Smad Place (good)

2/2—Art Masquerade (2 x good)

1/5—God’s Own (good to soft)

 

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2.40:  This looks to be the potential ‘Placepot destroyer’ on the card and if one or two of the shorter priced horses in other races also finish out of the frame, we could yet witness a good dividend despite what the first impression of the programme offers.  Six-year-olds have won six of the ten renewals of the 'Lanzarote' at odds of 20/1--9/1--8/1--9/2*--9/2**--11/4*, whilst eight of the ten winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less.  TOP VILLE BEN, SPIRITOFTHEGMAES and RED INDIAN are more speculative types to add to RIVER FOST as six-year-olds dominate my permutation.
Favourite factor: Five of the 11 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four (7/4—11/4--9/2--9/2**) winners.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/1—William Henry (good)

2/2—River Frist (good & good to soft)

1/1—Bags Groove (good)

1/1—Man From Mars (good)

 

3.15: The last four winners (of five in total) carried a minimum burden of eleven stones as have twelve of the fourteen horses which have secured Placepot positions thus far.  Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of FOUNTAINS WINDFALL, BALLYKAN and THE YOUNG MASTER.  I felt that I had to include two options alongside the favourite given that Fountains Windfall has fallen on his last two outings, albeit his chance is undeniable here if putting in a safe round of fencing.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing via two renewals of the toteplacepot finale before the10/3 market leader scraped into a Placepot position by finishing third in a nine runner contest two years ago.  Life improved for favourite punters twelve months on when the 9/4 market leader duly obliged before last year’s jolly secured a Placepot position at odds of 3/1 when claiming the silver medal.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (8/25 – loss of 4 points) – 229/895 +72

5—Alan King (2/17 – loss of 11) – 76/482 – loss of 87

3—Gary Moore (0/19) – 28/412 – loss of 186

3—Paul Nicholls (9/19 +1) – 119/522 – loss of 53

3—Dan Skelton (0/17) – 8/101 – loss of 74

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/6 +2) – 47/330 – loss of 51

2—Chris Gordon (0/9) – 9/76 +22

2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 3/562 – loss of 10

2—Charlie Mann (1/1 – slight profit) – 19/202 – loss of 50

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 4/57 +8

2—Nick Williams (0/2) – 7/45 – loss of 4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £292.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £149.20 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £57.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 31st

LINGFIELD – DECEMBER 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £279.10 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (11.40): 10 (Captain Pugwash), 3 (Groundfrost) & 5 (Enigmatic)

Leg 2 (12.10): 11 (Rennys Lady) & 7 (Kachumba)

Leg 3 (12.40): 4 (Carp Kid) & 1 (Ojala)

Leg 4 (1.15): 3 (Rainbow Rebel), 4 (Celestial Spheres) & 1 (Al Hamdany)

Leg 5 (1.45): 11 (Goring), 7 (Mystique Moon) & 1 (My Target)

Leg 6 (2.15): 4 (Pride Of Angels) & 2 (Bernie’s Boy)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

11.40: Horses who have suffered ‘traffic problems’ last time out’ have a way of getting beaten again the next day in my experience but that said, I can see why CAPTAIN PUGWASH was popular on the boards overnight.  The difference with the selection being that he was attempting to ‘double up’ having scored on his previous start, unlike so many ‘unlucky’ horses which seem to find trouble time after time.  Punters who have ‘beaten the book’ will probably have most to fear from GROUNDFROST at the business end of proceedings, whilst offering ENIGMATIC as the alternative each way option.

Favourite factor: Twelve renewals have been contested during the last decade via spilt divisions, with four clear marker leaders and three joint favourites having prevailed.  Indeed, 11/12 scored at a top price of 6/1 whilst 8/14 favourites secured Placepot positions.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Enigmatic

1/3—Spirit Of Sarwan

 

12.10: RENNY’S LADY showed a degree of ability first time up and if laying up a little bit closer to the pace this time around, David Evans could take his recent ratio to 5/16 with his only runner on the day, having achieved some half decent results during the holiday period.  There is plenty of money in the positive exchange queue for KACHUMBA at the time of writing and from trap five, Rae Guest’s Mayson filly could reach the frame again following her bronze medal effort at the second time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Lingfield card.

 

12.40: Having saddled just four winners between the months of July and September (inclusive - via a 5% strike rate) James Osborne’s year was heading off the rails.  18 subsequent gold medallists offering 41 points of level stake profit will have cheered the trainer up no end and there is a chance that Jamie could end 2017 on a high via his course winner CARP KID who was well backed in the dead of night.  OJALA would appear to be the obvious danger.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded until last year when the bookmaker’s bubble was thankfully burst.  That said, the previous four winners had scored at a top price of 7/1 whereby the layers were not having everything going their own way, using general terms which in no way accurately reflects all the books on the rails, a point that ‘Big Mac’ used to ignore.

Course winner in the third race:

1/1—Carp Kid

 

1.15: Marco Botti saddled the first winner of this event at odds of 7/1 twelve months ago, though punters investing in his representative here will have to take 2/1 (thereabouts) about AL HAMDANY on this occasion.  By the time that Tuesday arrives, Mark Johnston will only have saddled one horse in a week and that thoroughbred is RAINBOW REBEL who has made the long journey in an attempt to keep the home fires burning back at the ranch.  Throw CELETIAL SPHERES into the ring as well and we can deduce that Marco is a long way from taking anything for granted about his potential ‘double’ twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 favourite only just sneaked a Placepot position via a bronze medal performance.

Course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Berrahri

 

1.45: A victory here for GORING would end a sensational year for trainer Eve Johnson Houghton who has broken through the 50 winner barrier this season, having scored with just 23 gold medallists the year before last.  I offer GORING a genuine each way/Placepot chance in this grade/company, nominating MYSTIQUE MOON and MY TARGET as the potential spoilers in the pack as far as Eve and her team is concerned.  The latter named six time course winner would have been the outright call had six months not passed without the benefit of a racecourse appearance.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals, stats which include three (9/4, 9/4 & 2/1) winners.

Course winners in the fifth race:

6/10—My Target

1/5—Mutawathea

1/3—Mr Scaramanda

5/21—Alfred Hutchinson

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1/4—Believe It

1/2--Goring

 

2.15: Gary Moore snared a double yesterday albeit from nine runners but that said, three of his other contenders ran second, stats that bode well for the chance of PRIDE OF ANGELS in the final leg of our favourite wager.  BERNIE’S BOY is another realistic each way play from my viewpoint and I am content to let this pair complete my permutation, always believing that you will want to set aside some cash for the festivities tonight.  I will not be partaking as I am usually tucked up in slumber before eight o’clock at night in order to offer my dead of night thoughts.  However, that does not stop yours truly in wishing you a wonderful New Year to you and yours.  Enjoy but don't forget, leave that 'late night amber' in the glass - it's Cheltenham tomorrow!

Favourite factor: Two winning (3/1 & 4/5) favourites have ‘bookended’ the last six results, the other winners having scored at 16/1, 12/1 & 8/1 twice.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/9—Bridge Builder

1/5—Krazy Paving

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season before Saturday’s results + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Jamie Osborne (8/53 +7)

4—Michael Attwater (9/57 +49)

3—Richard Fahey (3/41 – loss of 26 points)

3—Phil McEntee (2/26 – loss of 10 points)

3—Gary Moore (3/50 – loss of 17 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (2/9 – slight loss)

2—John Best (3/39 – loss of 24 points)

2—Marco Botti (4/20 +8)

2—John Bridger (2/59 – loss of 27 points)

2—John Butler (10/39 +35)

2—Patrick Chamings (3/23 – loss of 5 points)

2—Simon Dow (8/34 +33)

2—Rae Guest (2/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Peter Hedger (2/21 – loss of 7 points)

2—Ron Hodges (0/9)

2—Richard Hughes (5/57 – loss of 40 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/21 – slight profit)

2—Dean Ivory (4/37 – loss of 11 points)

2—Henry Spiller (0/5)

2—Charlie Wallis (2/27 – loss of 8 points)

2—Lisa Williamson (0/9)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Uttoxeter: £40.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Warwick: £43.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 22nd November

KEMPTON - NOVEMBER 22

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (4.10): 3 (Plead), 4 (Jive Talking) & 2 (Hairdryer)

Leg 2 (4.40): 2 (Dashing Dusty), 4 (Roman Spinner) & 2 (Give Em A Clump)

Leg 3 (5.10): 10 (Salute The Soldier) & 5 (Flavius Titus)

Leg 4 (5.40): 6 (Qaysar) & 2 (Crack On Crack On)

Leg 5 (6.10): 1 (Blue Mist) & 8 (Tanseeq)

Leg 6 (6.40): 9 (Accidental Agent), 13 (Second Thought) & 2 (Khafoo Shememi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.10: With poor racing generally in place today, I thought I would offer this all weather meeting to offer a chance of a ‘get out of jail free’ card, if the NH sport earlier in the day has not worked out well for you.  Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 21 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all eight winners.  The top five horses in the betting at the time of writing hail from the superior weight trend, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PLEAD (if getting away on terms on this occasion), JIVE TAKING and HARIDRYER who deserves a win following some half decent placed efforts of late.  SOLVEIG’S SONG won this event at 33/1 last year and there will be horses at similar prices with less chance of winning running at Kempton this evening.  Holly Doyle negates the fact that Steve Woodman’s raider is running ‘out of the handicap’, to a fashion at least.
Favourite factor: All eight favourites have finished out with the washing thus far with bookmakers laughing all the way to the bank with gold medallists having scored at prices ranging between 8/1 and 33/1.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/11—Tee It Up Tommo

2/11—Buckland Beau

2/16—Biotic

2/11—Solveig’s Song

 

4.40:  Jamie Osborne did not enjoy the best of years on the turf front but the popular trainer has got his act together of late, boasting recent stats of 7/25, a ratio which offers a level stake profit of 46 points during the period.  It’s significant (accordingly) that Jamie has declared three runners on the card, the first of which is DASHING DUSTY who has been gelded going into his first handicap assignment.  Others for the mix include course winner ROMAN SPINNER and GIVE EM A CLUMP who hails from the David Evans camp which has posted a winner on each of the last two days.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (4/1 & 11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Secretario

1/2—Roman Spinner

 

5.10: The BHA are at it again by naming this as a new race because of its ‘novice status’ even though the distance, class classification and everything else is the same as it has been since the Doomsday Book was signed!  I am leaving my stats in though obviously, you can decide whether to take any notice of my findings down the years. SALUTE THE SOLDIER has been the subject of overnight support in no uncertain terms and given the good record of favourites in this event down the years (see below), Clive Cox’s Sepoy colt is the first name on the team sheet, especially with a really good Newbury debut effort under his belt.  FLAVIUS TITUS is the obvious danger given that jungle drums have only conspicuous relating to the newcomers by their absence.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

5.40: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton card, whereby the same stats and facts apply if you ignore the BHA ‘brief’.   I’m quick to jump on the backs of the lads/lasses in the trade press office who get the prices base over apex on occasions but their 8/13 quote about Richard Hannon’s once raced Choisir colt QAYSAR looks to be spot on after an excellent Newmarket effort on debut last month.  Nothing else is jumping off the page at the time of writing whereby I am offering CRACK ON CRACK ON as the alternative each way play in the race, despite the fact that he has plenty to find with the selection via Newmarket form.  If Clive Cox only had two runners travelling today I could have thought that his Havana Gold colt was merely keeping Salute The Soldier company in the horsebox, but that is not the case.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

6.10: The same  BHA comment applies to this juvenile event, whereby I will simply let you decide who is right/wrong!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that BLUE MIST has a wide enough draw to limit enthusiasm relating to his latest 5/4 quote which is backed by exchange rates at the time of writing.  Equally however, it is nigh impossible to leave Roger Charlton Makfi gelding out of the Placepot equation.  The additional furlong here might help TANSEEQ improve on his latest Kempton seven furlong effort, albeit not much improvement would be needed to reach the frame here I suspect.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/13 & 10/11) successful market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Blue Mist

1/1--Indiscretion

 

6.40: The last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones though unfortunately on this occasion, no horses are eliminated via a defection in the ranks.  Onwards and upward by informing that three-year-olds have won three of the last six contests whereby unbeaten course winners ACCIDENTAL AGENT, SECOND THOUGHT and KHAFOO SHEMENI are entrusted with my Placepot selections to hopefully secure the dividend.  The trio is listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this Listed event following eleven renewals, though three of the last eight market leaders did at least secur toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Khafoo Shememi

1/1—Keystroke

1/1—Accidental Agent

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1/1—Second Thought

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding meeting during the last five years:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (1)

4—Richard Hannon

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Fahey

3—William Haggas

3—Rod Millman

3—Jamie Osborne

2—George Baker (2)

2—Michael Bell

2—Roger Charlton

2—Simon Dow

2—John Gosden

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Richard Hughes

2—William Muir (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—David O’Meara

2—Hugo Palmer

2—Daniel Steele

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

2—Archie Watson

2—Ian Williams

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £189.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Hexham: Meeting abandoned

Warwick: £13.60 – 6 winners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 10th November

HEXHAM - NOVEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £26.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Hexham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 6 (Ouro Branco), 7 (Tetraites Style) & 2 (Calix Delafayette)

Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Handy Hollow) & 6 (Prince Dundee)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Niceandeasy) & 4 (Baraculu)

Leg 4 (2.10): 5 (Bitview Colin), 2 (Weston Jo) & 6 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Who’s Cross), 2 (Princess Mononoke) & 11 (Mrs Grass)

Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (On A Promise) & 7 (Willow Grange)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: OURO BRANCO represents Nigel Hawke (three runners on the card, the others contesting the 3.10 & 3.40 events) who boasts a 100% record (3/3) at Hexham during the last five years.  Eleven points of level stake profit has been realised during the period. One of the most exposed horses in the field, OURO BRANCO at least has plenty of moisture in the ground which is seemingly ideal, whilst Nigel could hardly have found the four-year-old an easier assignment.  TETRAITES STYLE has been the subject of some support on the exchanges overnight, whilst James Ewart’s Ayr winner CALIX DELAFAYETTE completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include a 5/4 winner.

 

1.10: I would not contemplate having a bet in the race from a win perspective but that said, the chance for HANDY HOLLOW to secure a Placepot position is there for all to see.  Lucinda Russel has saddled five of her last seventeen runners to winning effect and there is every chance that her Stowaway gelding PRINCE DUNDEE will figure prominently.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the first race on the card, whereby the same favourite stats are in place.

 

1.45: All four races have been secured by five/six/seven-year-olds, with the 'younger set' having claimed five of the last six renewals, coming into this year’s event on a five-timer.  Last year’s gold medallist was the only (heavy ground) course winner in the line up and five-year-old BARACULU is one of two such entries this time around.  The other is NICEANDEASY who looks to have been well placed, albeit the Keith Dalgleish raider has to break the vintage trend barrier as the Kalinisi gelding is a four-year-old.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/1--Niceandeasy (heavy)

1/2—Baraculu (heavy)

 

2.10: Soft ground course winner BITVIEW COLIN is the first of four runners on the programme to be saddled by John Patrick Ryan who boasts 2/3 stats here at Hexham during the last five years.  To add icing on the cake, John boasts level stake profits of 25 points for good measure. The same going should be in place and though ‘Colin’ has yet to winner after four steeplechase assignments, the trainer has found an ideal opportunity in this grade/company.  WESTON JOE and JUMP FOR DOUGH should offer challenges at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race on the Hexham card.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Weston Jo (heavy)

1/1—Bitview Colin (soft)

 

2.40: MRS GRASS ran down the field in this event last year but on a similar mark here thanks to a jockey claim and in reasonable form , MRS GRASS cannot be written off entirely as she has gained all three of her wins to date at this venue.  WHO’S CROSS is another John Patrick Ryan runner on the card with each way claims, whilst PRINCESS MONONOKE has her preferred ground conditions.

Favourite factor: Both (13/8 & 7/4) favourites had finished in the frame without winning their respective events before last year’s 7/2 market leader was one of four horses which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Princess Mononoke (soft)

1/4—Uno Valoroso (heavy)

3/21—Mrs Grass (2 x soft & good to soft)

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3.10: ON A PROMISE should prove difficult to kick out of the frame, whilst Irish raider WILLOW GRANGE appears to make up a decent duo against the remaining thirteen contenders in a race which is high on numbers but short on class.

Favourite factor: The four favourites have gained two gold medals alongside one of each colour, with all the market leaders having secured Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Turtle Cask (heavy)

1/5—Captain Sharp (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Hexham card on Friday followed by their five year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (39/226 (+45)

4—John Patrick Ryan (2/3 +25)

4—Sue Smith (0/14)

4—Victor Thomson (4/65 – loss of 36 points)

3—Nick Alexander (6/72 – loss of 40 points)

3—Julia Brook (2/14 – Slight loss)

3—James Ewart (11/53 +5)

3—Micky Hammond (12/112 – loss of 67 points)

3—Nigel Hawke (3/3 +11)

3—Nicky Richards (12/42 +17)

2—Maurice Barnes (18/116 – loss of 9 points)

2—George Bewley (9/64 +9)

2—Gillian Boanas (0/8)

2—Susan Corbett (6/92 – loss of 63 points)

2—Sam England (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Jonthan Haynes (10/85 – loss of 3 points)

2—Donald McCain (15/107 – loss of 60 points)

2—Lucy Normile (1/28 – loss of 11 points)

2—Paul Stafford (5/29 +8)

2—Simon West (0/3)

2—William Young Junior (3/21 – loss of 5 points)

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £338.00 – 7 favourites 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Warwick: £1,091.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: £307.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 5th October

HUNTINGDON - OCTOBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £67.20 (7 favourite - 1 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 1 (Plato’s Code), 9 (Thounder) & 7 (Hernandes)

Leg 2 (2.00): 7 (Mille Nautique) & 3 (Royal Plaze)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Dans Le Vent) & 6 (Hatcher)

Leg 4 (3.05): 4 (Air Squadrun), 8 (Brave Helios) & 2 (Teak)

Leg 5 (3.40): 4 (Pemba), 3 (Miss Spent) & 1 (Matchaway)

Leg 6 (4.10): 2 (Number One London), 5 (Sissinghurst) & 4 (Tiradia)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30:  Juvenile hurdle events are captivating at this time of year, hoping to witness a star in the making under NH rules.  11 of the last 14 winners of this event have won at odds of 9/2 or less and I could back the run of fancied winners to continue via dual winner PLATO’S CODE and THOUNDER.  That said, anything that Ian Williams saddles these days is worth a secondary glance, with HERNANDES representing Ian on this occasion, the trainer having won with five of his last eleven runners.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won via 16 renewals, alongside one joint favourite.  13 of the 17 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

2.00: MILLE NAUTIQUE finished as an unplaced (joint) favourite in this event last year.  Alan King’s gelding ended a run of ten straight defeats following his course victory (debut chase event) when scoring at Market Rasen last time out,   the tracks are similar and with ground in his favour, Tom Bellamy’s mount should go close in this grade/company.  WITNESS IN COURT has (somewhat surprisingly) come in for plenty of overnight support, though I prefer ROYAL PLAZA as the main danger to the tentative selection.

Favourite factor: Only one the three favourites (via two renewals) has claimed a Placepot position to date.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Deauville Dancer (good)

1/3—Honkytonktennessee (good)

1/2—Mille Nautique (good)

 

2.35: There was a time not so long ago when you could back beaten runners in the Championship Bumper at Cheltenham next time out with tremendous confidence as such horses during the period held a win ratio of nearly 70% at the time.  The study has disappointed in recent years, though sixth placed DANS LE VENT (earlier this year) has been offered a fine chance to follow up his successful effort at Ludlow when returned as the 2/5 favourite in his next start after the promising Cheltenham effort.  HATCHER is preferred as the main danger ahead of New Agenda, especially given Dan Skelton’s continued run of success.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 14 favourites have finished in the frame to date.  Six favourites have prevailed thus far, whilst all 13 gold medallists were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—New Agenda (good)

1/1—Hatcher (good)

 

3.05: A winner of 4/14 races on the level on turf, AIR SQUADRUN was scoring for the first time in five attempts under the NH code when wearing cheek-pieces the last day and making his handicap debut here, I’m hoping that Tom  George’s seven-year-old can follow up successfully.  BRAVE HELIOS has attracted overnight support at around the 10/1 mark which makes for interesting reading, whilst TEAK completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Captainofindustry (good)

1/4—Tangolan (good to soft)

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3.40: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13, statistics which eliminate Spoilt Rotten this time around.  With McCabe Creek seemingly easy to back at the time of writing, I am left with PEMBA, MISS SPENT and MATCHAWAY to include in my Placepot permutation.  Although the trio is listed in order of preference, support is developing for the latter named Kerry Lee representative, ensuring that that I am not content to let the other two ‘carry all my cash’ from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, stats which include one successful (7/4) market leader which won the inaugural contest for David Pipe.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2--Fields Of Glory (soft)

 

4.10: TIRADIA finished third at 16/1 in this event last year carrying three pounds less than the 11-10 burden today.  That said, recent winning form offers plenty of hope for another Placepot position to be gained here at the very least.  NUMBER ONE LONDON was a frustrating horse on the level, if only because Brian Meehan’s raider obviously possessed lots of talent, but was rarely able to deliver for one reason or another.  If on the best of form here however, Tim Vaughan’s raider could make short work of these rivals at the business end of the contest.  SISSINGHURST has been most disappointing of late but it would not take you too long to find half decent form if you delved back through his history.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite failed to complete the course behind horses which filled the frame at 7/1, 16/1 and 16/1 again.  The Placepot dividend subsequently disappointed those of us who had been successful on the day.

Record of the course winner in the field:

2/16—Tiradia (good to soft & soft)

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:

5 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (25/94 +14)

5—Dan Skelton (17/97 – loss of 43 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (5/40 – loss of 6 points)

3—Pat Phelan (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

3—Mark Pitman (1/4 – loss of 2 points)

3—John Ryan (1/7 +14)

3—Tim Vaughan (8/49 – loss of 16 points)

3—Paul Webber (4/48 – loss of 29 points)

2—John Jenkins (5/44 +27)

2—Donald McCain (2/25 – loss of 12 points)

2—Graeme McPherson (2/32 – loss of 19 points)

2—Gary Moore (15/84 +18)

2—Olly Murphy (No previous runners at the track)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/11)

2—Richard Phillips (1/34 – loss of 28 points)

2—Jamie Snowden (4/44 - loss of 29 points)

2—Ian Williams (8/51 – loss of 9 points)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £105.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: This is a new fixture on the calendar

Chelmsford: £75.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced