Posts

Racing Insights, 22nd April 2021

Instant Expert is your simple at-a-glance overview of how all the runners in a given race have previously performed under similar conditions. It's unique to Geegeez and has rapidly become one of our Gold subscribers' favourite tools. But on Thursdays, you don't need a Gold sub to access this report, because it's totally free to ALL users for ALL races every Thursday to help simplify races for you including our free 'races of the day' which are...

  • 2.30 Warwick
  • 4.15 Warwick
  • 5.35 Kilbeggan
  • 6.25 Exeter
  • 6.45 Chelmsford
  • 7.55 Exeter

The first of that bunch of races looks the most competitive and most suitable one for analysis, so today's piece will centre on the 2.30 Warwick, an 8-runner, Class 4 Handciap chase for 5yo+ runners over two miles on Good (firmer in places) ground for a pot worth £3,594 and here's how they line up...

Darling du Large is the only mare in the race and has to carry 12 stone as top weight here, although I'm unsure how she arrived at a mark of 112 over fences, other than by virtue of being eased 3lbs for a 36.5 length defeat on chasing debut in December. She was subsequently beaten by 13.5 lengths in a bumper and fell on her next/last start off today's mark. A winner of just 1 hurdles race from 12 career starts, weak finishing has almost become her trademark and she's going to have to up her game carrying such a big weight. Handicap chasers carrying 12-0 or more here at Warwick are just 4 from 38.

Atlantic Storm had a really good run of form to start last season (3222612) at both Class 4 and also Class 3. He struggled on soft ground in a couple of winter runs, but was third last time out on quicker ground and is now 1lb lower than when winning at Hereford in October at a higher grade.

Larch Hill was a course and distance winner here over hurdles back in January 2019 and was 1st and then 3rd in his first two efforts over fences, both at Market Rasen in April 2019. He fell at Carlisle on his return from an 18-month absence last October and then ran in a couple of selling hurdles to get him going again. He then returned to chasing three weeks ago and was a runner-up at Southwell, beaten by just 1.25 lengths despite having had another 20 weeks off the track. The winner of that race was raised 5lbs for the win and has since reappeared to be beaten by just a neck in this grade.

Elisezmoi won over hurdles in France, but was 10th of 12 (beat by 66L) on his UK debut and unseated 2 out on his second attempt. he then switched to chasing and was a 15 length runner-up at Lingfield before being pulled up late on twice. A change of tactics last time out saw him back leading, but ran out of steam late on in a 7.5 length defeat on quick ground. He might fare better here dropping back 2f and 2lbs.

Deise Vu finished 211 over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m1f in back to back contests from mid-October 2018 to early March 2019, but has failed to get anywhere near that form since. He was beaten by 66 lengths two starts ago in August 2019 and then by 63 lengths last time out some 11 months later. He's now 13 yrs old and is having another crack after nine more months away and personally, I'd not bother.

Gouet des Bruyeres is a French-born 5 yr old who seems to be improving with each run over fences and has finished 5312 this year so far. He was a winner by nine lengths at Wetherby at the start of the month and then was beaten by less than 2 lengths just 3 days later when asked to travel 2f further so soon after his win off a mark 7lbs higher, so that was a really good effort. That said, he's up another 3lbs here and that might make things a bit tougher.

The Granson has won just 2 of 27 starts to date and since winning a Novices Chase by a head at Tramore in mid-August 2019 he has struggled in seven runs in which he has been pulled up twice and has been beaten by an average of around 40 lengths per race in the other five. He's now 15lbs lower than that win, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him.

No Ceiling is 4 from 25 over hurdles/fences which is a reasonable return, but hasn't run well since his last win in early December 2017. He has failed to complete three of his last four races, going down by 53 lengths in the other. He's now 11 yrs old and it's fair to say his best days were a long time ago and I'd swerve him here stepping up in class.

From the above, I'm actually going to eliminate three runners from my enquiries immediately as I really don't like what I've seen about Deise Vu, No Ceiling or The Granson. I'll remove them from the Instant Expert graphic to make the image more compact, you can also do this for other races by simply clicking the X next to their name. So here's my compact view...

The one I'm initially drawn to here is Atlantic Storm, who has really good numbers (particularly for places) from a fairly large sample size and has won off 1lb higher than today. Gouet des Bruyeres is the standout for wins, but we need to note that it's a small sample size and he's now 10lbs higher than his last win. That, of course, doesn't rule him out and he probably still looks a better bet than Darling du Large or Elisezmoi at this point.

As for race pace, we're advised that a prominent runner tucking in behind the leader(s) is the best position to be in, but leaders do still win more than their fair share of similar contests. Whether the numbers do say is the mid-division or further back is a tough place to win from.

 

Above is how past performances suggest these eight runners will break out and there's every possibility that Gouet des Bruyeres will try and win it from the front, whilst of my favoured five, Darling Du Large and Atlantic Storm would be the most disadvantaged.

Summary

From my original five, the first of the two I've going to omit now is Darling du Large, due to weight, Instant Expert, pace and form, then the final cut is with Elisezmoi. He's not too badly positioned on the pace tab, but his recent form hasn't been great either, so it was a fairly easy decision.

This leaves me with (alphabetically) Atlantic Storm, Gouet des Bruyeres and Larch Hill. Of those three, Larch Hill would be the least likely for me as a winner and I'm got him a little way behind the other two on my ratings. That said he's closer to those two than he is from Elisezmoi, so I'm expecting him to make the frame.

As for a winner, well, I don't really have very much between Atlantic Storm and Gouet des Bruyeres and there are pros and cons about both of them, but I think that age and the extra weight carried by the former means Gouet des Bruyeres just shades it for me here, but I do mean just.

The market would seem to agree with my choice of winner as GdB is currently 11/4 and that's probably fair, but Atlantic Storm does look big at 15/2 and could well be worth backing for a place. Larch Hill, however, looks short at 3/1 (as does Darling du Large) an is probably best left alone.

 

 

Racing Insights, 30th March 2021

The Shortlist report is Tuesday's Geegeez free feature open to ALL readers, irrespective of subscription status, as are the following 'races of the day'...

  • 2.50 Fakenham
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 6.40 Wolverhampton
  • 7.10 Wolverhampton

If I'm entirely honest, none of the four races above really float my boat. The A/W races have just seven runners between them, whilst only five are declared at Fakenham. There's not much of interest to me on the Shortlist, so Hobson's Choice sends us to the 3.00 Warwick.

On paper, it initially looks like being a 2-horse race with a fairly short-priced fav, but with bookies paying 3 or even 4 places, we might just find ourselves a decent priced E/W bet from this 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle over 3m2f on Good ground, which looks like this...

Everything for You is the only one to have last time out and carries a 7lb penalty for that, whilst two others (One For Dunstan & Pour Une Raison) have at least won one of their last handful of outings under Rules (Wind Tor's win was in a PTP). The afore-mentioned Wind Tor is a handicap debutant here, as is Bold Pimpernel, whilst Teenage Dirtbag is having a second bite at the handicap cherry today after not being humiliated last time out.

Three of the horses I've already mentioned (Everything For You, Wind Tor and Bold Pimpernel) are dropping down from Class 4, whilst Gold Clermont's trainer is the only one with a positive stat icon to his name. Golden Glory heads the Geegeez ratings on 120 ahead of Pour Une Raison and Everything For You on 110 and 109 respectively.

I said that I though it looked like a 2-horse race on paper and I was thinking of Everything For You and Gold Clermont, but let's take a look at all the runners to see if (a) that proves to be the case and (b) if we can find a decent-priced E/W bet or two, starting with...

Everything For You, the likely fairly short-priced fav was second in a bumper three starts ago and looked a different/better horse upped massively in trip to 3m1.5f last time out. he stayed on strongly and despite some jumping errors, was a winner by 26 lengths. This is tougher bearing a 7lb penalty but he does drop in class and if attacking the race as he did last week, he'll be tough to catch/beat. Jockey is 6/28 over the last 30 days including, 4/14 for today's trainer, for whom he is 15/62 over the last year.

Wind Tor makes a handicap debut after two fairly heavy defeats (30L & 35L) since a decent third on debut over 3m on heavy ground at Chepstow almost eight weeks ago. She might well fare better in handicap company in due course, as daughters of Midnight Legend tend to do as they mature, but an opening mark of 102 looks stiff, but she does at least drop in class here.

Gold Clermont might well have won a 3m1.5f handicap on heavy ground at Ayr 17 days ago, but for an error two out that caused her to be headed before the last hurdle. She came out of the last two lengths down, but rallied to within a neck of the winner who has since come within a neck of winning again. Gold Clermont was 23 lengths clear of the rest of the pack that day at Ayr and that's probably why she's up 7lbs for the run. Her yard fare really well with stayers and her stablemates are 8 from 27 here at Warwick since the start of 2018 including 3 from 8 beyond 3 miles.

Golden Glory heads the Geegeez ratings and I bow to Dr Peter May's superior knowledge on this score, as I can't personally see how. Her best effort in this grade was a year ago when third at Hereford, beaten by just over 5 lengths in a maiden, but went down by 24 lengths in this class last time out. Prior to that, she was only 11 lengths off the pace at a higher grade, but even a 3lb easing of her mark shouldn't put her close today.

One For Dunstan got off the mark in a Class 4 hurdle over 3m1.5f at Plumpton in mid-January on soft ground and was then a reasonable third over the same course and distance at the start of this month. He had dropped down to Class 5 for that run, but was up in weight by 7lbs resulting in a 16 length defeat. That, however, was a full handicap rather than a novice contest he tackles here and going off the same mark again, he has to be considered for the places.

First Du Charmil looked like he had some promise back in 2017, but a series of lengthy layoffs have hindered his progress to the extent that he has only raced four times since mid-January 2018, failing to finish twice and he hs never travelled further than 2m5.5f. Even the presence of Harry Skelton in the saddle won't be enough to carry him home here.

Pour Une Raison is still relatively unexposed after just six handicap starts and was a winner over 2m6f on soft ground just over four months ago and was a respectable third in a Class 4 contest last month. He'll need to be better than when beaten by 30 lengths last time out, but he's down in weight here, sports a visor for the first time and this looks a weaker contest.

Jour A La Plage hasn't made the frame in seven career starts to date and I expect that to become 0 from 8 here. He has only gone beyond 2m5f on on occasion and he was beaten by over 25 lengths that day. Mind you, the average margin of his 6 hurdles defeats is around 46 lengths, so that was possibly a decent effort for him! If he's not last home here, he'll have done well.

Bold Pimpernel, on the other hand, might well challenge for that wooden spoon, if past form is anything to go by. 15th of 16 and beaten by 134 lengths on debut then 7th of 7 (73L) and 9th of 9 (103L) since would suggest he's not likely to beat many here either. He's massively up in trip for his handicap debut and unless he's been showing something on the gallops we don't know about over longer distances, he's hard to recommend here.

Realms Of Fire has produced his best two runs of his career in the past month since the switch to Louise Allan's yard, making the frame on both occasions and not being beaten by far either. 2.5 lengths adrift off a mark of 74 and then beaten by 9 lengths off 78, he goes off that same mark (jt bottom weight after claims here) again here, suggesting he has every chance of a hat-trick of placed finishes.

Teenage Dirtbag is the other joint bottom weight after jockey claims and this 5 yr old produced his best run to date when 6th of 17 last time out on his first venture beyond 2m5f. He was 14 lengths off the pace over 3m1.5f on good to soft ground off a mark 2lbs higher than today. All five who beat him home have raced since, the first three have all been placed next time out, whilst the fifth placed horse won by 10 lengths over 3m2f at Huntingdon last Tuesday. if the form holds up and this one runs like he did last time out, he could threaten the places here.

Minella Style doesn't appear to have much going for him here or in general if truth be told. He's 11 yrs old now and has no wins from fifteen career starts, making the frame just three times. He was soundly (61L) beaten last time out at Huntingdon just over four months ago and at his age, a recent wind op looks like a desperate last throw of the dice. Racing from 3lbs out of the handicap, I expect him to be towards the rear of the field in this one.

*

So, we know how this dozen have performed in the past, we now ned to try and translate that pat form into race suitability for the task ahead and if there's an easier way of doing it than Instant Expert, please let me know! I start by looking at overall stats and I see that this field has raced 114 times between them, making the frame on just 28 occasions, which is marginally less than a 1 in 4 ratio. The win figures are atrocious, with just three horses (Everything for You, One For Dunstan & Pour Une Raison) having won in the past and their 6 wins represents a mere 5.26% strike rate across the whole field.

That 5.26% win record means that the win element of Instant Expert...

...doesn't actually tell us a great deal, other than why Everything For You is likely to be a fairly warm favourite. The other two past winners have at least won in a big field and One For Dunstan has won beyond 3m. I hope that we glean more information from the place side of IE, especially if we're going to find ourselves a decent E/W punt...

...which does indeed add a little bit of meat to the bones. Everything For You still heads my thoughts, even if he hasn't fared too well in bigger fields and when I look at who might chase him home, the above graphic and my write-ups are putting the likes of Gold Clermont, One For Dunstan, Pour Une Raison and Realms of Fire in contention.

Let's now try and work out how the race might unfold via the pace tab, where unfortunately the data from previous similar races doesn't really favour any particular running style over another. The IVs of the four style range from 1.33 to 0.92 and neither of those figures are conclusively good or conclusively bad. Over these longer trips, the stats make it patently clear that if you're good enough, you can pretty much win from any racing position, although a more prominent placing would be advised...

And here's how past performances suggest they'll break out...

I expect Everything For You to set the pace, open up a fairly commanding lead and win as comfortably as he likes at a margin of victory pre-requested by his trainer 😉 . After that it's likely to be a pretty open affair and if they all jump soundly, it really should come down to ability and suitability, so with that in mind, I'm happy to take my post-Instant Expert quintet forward to the final summary.

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert, I effectively said Everything For You headed my thoughts and the likes of Gold Clermont, One For Dunstan, Pour Une Raison and Realms of Fire would be the ones battling for the places and my opinion hasn't changed.

Looking for a winner, I struggle to see beyond the likely favourite Everything For You, even with a 7lb penalty. he won by 26 lengths last time out, it could have been 36, 46 or 56 etc. I'd be surprised if he completes the race, but doesn't win.

That leaves me with four horses chasing two or three places, depending on your chosen bookie and I think that Realms of Fire is the one I'm least keen on. He has shown dramatic improvement since switching yard but only just made the frame last time out off this mark and a third run in a month might just be too much for him. I don't think he'll be far away from the places, but I have to discard one!

So, I've got my preferred winner, Everything For You and my three place hopefuls, who I think could well finish in the order Gold Clermont / One For Dunstan / Pour Une Raison. My front four are currently (5.25pm) priced at 11/8, 11/4, 15/2 and 14/1. Personally I'm not normally keen on taking 11/8 about a runner in a 12-horse race, but I do expect him to in and there's every chance he'll go off even shorter than that. Of the rest, a 14/1 E/W play for a few pennies on Pour Une Raison would at least give us some other interest in the race.

 

Racing Insights, 10th December 2020

Nobody expected Casimir du Clos to try and make all at Hexham today, but that's what he did to good effect. The veteran (and my preference) Skipping On launched a valiant attempt to reel the winner in and got close before the stone and a half he was conceding finally took its toll. I lost a couple of quid, but 2nd at 11/2 was a decent effort.

Not enough to get me off the cold list, but I'm game if nothing else, so I'll dust myself off and go again for Thursday's racing, whose feature of the day is the informative and visually inspiring Instant Expert tab for all races, including the full free cards for...

  • 12.52 Warwick
  • 1.27 Warwick
  • 2.05 Tramore
  • 2.25 Newcastle
  • 3.40 Tramore

A slightly different take on proceedings today, as I look at the 1.27 Warwick, which is the most interesting (to me anyway!) of the five free races. It's a 7-runner, Listed Novice Chase for 4yo+ mares over 2m4½f on soft ground and it's worth winning at a top prize of £11,746.

Zambella is our 2/1 favourite here and I fully expect her to go on and win the race, based on the way she won last time out. It was just her fifth UK start and her chasing debut, but she still won a Listed contest on soft ground despite making a mess of the last fence and she had won her last two races on French soil, both on very soft ground. She's up 5lbs for the win, but there's plenty more to come from her and she's the one to beat/back here.

So why are you looking at this, Chris?

Well, as you know, I'm not massively fond of backing favs at 2/1 and shorter, so I'm looking to see if any of the others stand out as more obvious types for a forecast or even tricast bet here.

My first action is to cross Liberty Bella off the list, she's 0 from her last 10, hasn't looked like winning any of them and is 25/1 and bigger for a reason, this leaves me with five to consider for my two placers.

And I'm going to be ruthless here and discard both Flow Away and Diva de Vassy at this stage. Flow Away has undoubted ability, as shown when second in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle on Heavy ground last time out, but she's never tackled a chase before and the form of that hurdle race hasn't really worked out well. Diva de Vassy, however, did actually win last time out, but only by a length in a poor Class 4 contest.

She was aided by the re-opposing Midnightreferendum falling when easily travelling best of all and eventual runner-up Shesasupermack making a mess of the second last. Jockey Page Fuller retains the ride and I'd prefer a more experienced rider in a race like this. I'm sure Page is very good, but she's inexperienced and doesn't win often enough.

So that leaves us with our fav and three possibles as we look at the pace make-up of the race...

Here we see that prominent runners have won 14 of the 23 (60.9% SR) similar contests in recent years, but we've three who fit that bill here, whilst I'd expect Zambella to be waited with whilst the front three take each other on. One of them will have to set the pace or Zambella could turn it into a procession late on.

Legends Gold has made all in two of her five wins to date and fell 2 out at Uttoxeter having made all the running last time out too. Midnightreferendum has never set the pace in any of her 13 starts to date, whilst Pink Legend's best efforts have come when tracking the lead rather than setting the pace. All of which makes Legends Gold the vulnerable one of the three, so she's going to be the odd one out here. I just feel she'll attempt to set the fractions and get picked off by the other three.

Which leaves us with a final three of Zambella who I expect to win, Midnightreferendum and Pink Legend. Both of my suggested placers are offspring of the mighty Midnight Legend, whose daughters have done very well in soft (or worse) ground chases for many a year, but which one will prevail here?

Well, let's quickly assess this...
FORM  : Pink Legend won last time out, Midnight was a faller
CHASING : Pink is 1 from 1, Midnight is 1 from 2
GOING : Pink has 3 wins and a place from 6 on soft or worse (2/3 on soft), Midnight has a win and two places from three on soft
DISTANCE : Pink has won at the trip, whilst Midnight hasn't won beyond 2m3.5f
JOCKEY : Pink has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 under Charlie Deutsch, who has ridden her more times than anyone else, whilst Midnight is 1 from 2 under Tom Bellamy, as she's normally ridden by Wayne Hutchinson.
TRACK : Pink hasn't raced here before, Midnight is 2 from 2 at this venue

Throw in the long-standing record of Venetia Williams' runners in testing conditions and I'm leaning towards Pink Legend.

Summary

Zambella should be winning this and whilst 2/1 isn't normally attractive to me, I think it's about right. I then have Pink Legend (9/2) ahead of Midnightreferendum (4/1) for the place money, but it should be tight.

Racing Insights, 6th November 2020

Friday's feature of the day is the Horses for Courses report, which is exactly as the names suggests, horses who have previously gone well at that track they're running at next, whilst our free racecards cover the following half dozen contests...

  • 1.10 Hexham
  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 8.05 Newcastle

My horses for courses report looks like this today...

... Tathmeen and Great Colaci both run in 14-runner handicaps and such large fields hold no interest for me, whilst Little Jo's three wins only contain one in the last 2 years, so I'm not going there either.

That sends me back to the free races and my lack of appetite for the big fields leave me with the 2.10 Warwick : a 9-runner Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f (+92yds from advertised) on Good (Good to Soft in places) ground worth £4289 for the winner, whose card looks like this...

The runners with blue numbers next to their name (Billy Bronco, Dentley de Mee, The Toojumpa and Accordingtogino) are of immediate interest to me, as they feature on my query tool report. From a trainer icon (14 30 C1 C5) perspective Billy Bronco, Dentley de Mee and Accordingtogino are positives, as is Antony, whilst Western Climate's yard seems out of form with a current run of 28 losers.

Thomas Shelby and Accordingtogino appeal from the jockey stats, whilst the Geegeez Speed ratings suggest there's not a great deal between the top five.

The going isn't as bad as it could well have been here, but 3m2f still takes some getting and I'm keen to find runners suited to the trip/class and I'm also interested in those with obvious stamina. The place to find such information is, of course, the Instant Expert tab, where I've used the place tab to give me a bit more data about the runners' chasing prowess...

...and Western Climate / Thomas Shelby are the ones screaming "look at me" here, whilst in this type of  raxce, we're advised that a horse racing is a prominent position would do well, which makes perfect sense as it's not easy to win a 3m2f chase from the front, but easier to be there or thereabouts ready to pick the leader off late on. Numerically, that looks like this...

and our 9 runners have recently been running like this...

...so I'd probably want to be looking at Thomas Shelby, Accordingtogino, The Toojumpa here and possibly Western Climate too.

Now with yesterday's piece, I showed you one way of going through the card to eliminate runners step by step to eventually leave a shortlist of possibles and that approach will either work for your approach or you'd want to do it differently, so here's another way forward. Quite simply, do the above analysis and see which names keep popping up and in this case, it's Thomas Shelby and Accordingtogino, so I'm going to quickly look at their credentials to see if the racecard and its associated data has led me to a bet or not...

Thomas Shelby : is, I suppose an out and out chaser. 0 from 7 in Bumpers/Hurdles contests, but has finished 3P14231 over fences, all at this Class 4 and also has a win and two places from three PTP races over 3m on Good/Good to Soft ground.

31-60 days rest looks his optimal time off the track (2 wins from 3) and he comes here off the back of a very comfortable win over 3m0.5f at Bangor. He's up in trip here, but that run was on Soft ground, so stamina should be fine. He's also up 8lbs for the win, but did come home some 12 lengths clear without really exerting himself. Danseur du Large was back in 3rd (41 lengths adrift) that day, but he has since won over 3m2f at Fontwell a fortnight ago, so that will hopefully frank the form.

Accordingtogino : just his second attempt over fences, although he did win a soft/heavy ground 3m PTP and he probably needed the run when soundly beaten on his chasing bow at Lingfield a fortnight ago.

He was held up on soft ground and eventually trailed home 6th of 8, some 42 lengths off the pace, but as well as being his first crack at fences, it was also his first outing for almost 8 months.

Prior to that, he had made the frame in seven of his eight hurdle starts, including a couple of Class 3 contests. His best efforts have come on Good to Soft or worse, so he'll be praying for rain, I'd assume.

Summary

It's probably easier to start with Accordingtogino, obviously talented over hurdles, but I think he might need another run or two over fences before realising his potential and as this looks a very competitive contest 8/1 looks a bit skinny for me to be interested. If you could get 12/1 for an E/W punt, I'd not dissuade you from having a quid or two, but you do want more than 8's and you don't want big stakes.

As for Thomas Shelby, he's actually the one I like most of all nine runners, but you could make a case for half a dozen of them and he's a 7/2 to 4/1 shot in my books, so Bet365's 9/2 offering looks very tempting. I'll play at that price not just because I like his chances but also because of the perceived value.

It's a race where you'd be forgiven for walking away, mind. it's far too competitive for proper staking in my opinion, but like Matt says in his webinars, we do like an "action bet" ie a couple of quid for interest/entertainment. So, that's where I'm at : a small bet at 9/2 with the obvious caveat that any of half a dozen could win and we could finish 6th!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS