NOTTINGHAM – MAY 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £158.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 47.1% units went through – 16/1 – 5/1 – 4/1*
Race 2: 38.3% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 7/1 (5/2)
Race 3: 44.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 6/1
Race 4: 55.1% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* & 6/1
Race 5: 22.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 – 16/1 – 7/2 (13/8)
Race 6: 46.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (2.20): 14 (Sabia Sabai), 8 (Heartwarming) & 15 (She Can Boogie)
Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Nuns Walk) & 1 (Island Of Life)
Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Autumn Leaves) & 1 (Fille De Reve)
Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Repercussion), 6 (Zwayyan) & 7 (Daira Prince)
Leg 5 (4.20): 10 (Time To Sea), 5 (Fisher Green) & 2 (Fanfair)
Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (River Glades) & 3 (Sassie)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.20: Tom Dascombe was quite keen on SHE CAN BOOGIE earlier in the year but having suffered a slight setback in her work, it will be interesting to see how the Dandy Man filly has ‘recovered’. While on the subject of juveniles, I should just offer a pointer from yesterday whereby you can put a line through the effort of Gracious Dane who was greener than the grass at Leicester yesterday, as the market indicated. Back to this event by suggesting that SABAI SABAI and HEARTWARMING have had the jungle drums beating in their respective ‘neck of the woods’ for a while now. CAPLA ROCK sets the standard thus far, though the bar is not set that high and it would be a tad disappointing if at least one of the three newcomers mentioned in dispatches failed to get on terms at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions via four renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/4**) winner.
2.50: Although only three of Tim Easterby’s last fifteen runners have won, investors would have made a half decent level stake profit during the period, notwithstanding three of Tim’s other runners having finished in the frame at each way prices for good measure. Tom saddles NUNS WALK with claims here, with connections probably having most to fear from other four-year-olds such as ISLAND OF LIFE and (possibly) MELONADE. Although we have hardly established a trend as such following just two renewals, four-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick. Last year’s winner Socialites Red looks to have a little more to do today.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite duly obliged, though detectives are still combing the area for the 5/2 market leader from last year which was sunk without trace.
Record of the two course winners in the second race:
2/5—Socialites Red (2 x good)
2/4—Sitar (2 x good to soft)
3.20: Ten of the eleven winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which produce seven qualifiers on this occasion. Clive Cox has started the season well which is invariably the case and aside from Heartwarming in the opening event, the popular trainers saddled AUTUMN LEAVES here boasting definite claims following a nice win at Salisbury last back end at the third time of asking. Odds of 10/3 are available in a couple of places and win, lose or draw, I doubt that price will get bigger as the day wears on. We have to take it on trust that the Helmet filly will see out the additional furlong at full speed but given that she won on this ground in August, I’m willing to take that chance. That said, the nine strong field is packed with promising fillies in an absorbing contest, the pick of which today (not necessarily for the season as a whole) could prove to be HARVEST DAY and (particularly) FILLE DE REVE.
Favourite factor: Six of the last nine renewals have been secured by market leaders during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1. Ten of the eleven favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.
3.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date and with REPERCUSSION attracting money overnight, I’m tilting towards the chance of the Charlie Fellowes raider minute by minute. Richard Kingscote boasts a 50% record for the trainer for good measure, albeit following just two opportunities in the saddle. Other contenders worthy of a passing interest include ZWAYYAN (the other five-year-old in the field) and DAIRA PRINCE, a winner of three of five handicaps contested thus far. The declarations of Tricorn and Seniority add plenty of interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (13/8 & 9/4) gold medallists.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/2—Daira Prince (good to firm)
4.20: Trainer John Butler complicates matters by declaring three runners in the field, with ‘early money’ seemingly suggesting that TIME TO SEA is the pick of the trio. Roger Fell is rapidly becoming one of my favourite ‘unsung’ handlers and FISHER GREEN could go well on his first run for the yard this afternoon. Other each way types to consider include seven time winner WOODY BAY and FANFAIR.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.
Record of the two course winners in the fifth event on the card:
1/9—Woody Bay (good to firm)
1/2—Torch (good to firm)
4.50: Eight of the nine winners in the Placepot finale have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, though I have only left the stats in for your records as all seven runners qualify via the weight trend this time around. I’m sticking with RIVER GLADES and his Wetherby form over two of these rivals, despite the fact that Mark Johnston’s top weight let the side down away from turf the last day. Mark has a knack of reviving his inmates like few other trainers can match. SASSIE is slightly preferred to SOTOMAYER as the main threat.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via just nine renewals. Nine of the ten favourites secured Placepot positions for good measure.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.