Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 2.10 Warwick
- 4.25 Warwick
- 5.00 Warwick
- 5.30 Warwick
- 6.35 Punchestown
- 7.35 Taunton
And with an 80% chance of me steering this column towards Warwick, the second of the four there appeals most to me. It's a stayers' contest and the highest rated of the four, so let's look in at the 4.25 Warwick, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in twelve flights of hurdles over 3m1f on good to soft ground...
Martha Brae is our sole LTO winner, scoring five weeks ago after a sequence of three runner-up finishes. Elsewhere the only LTO placer was Jubilee Express, seciond best in each of his last two, but did win three starts ago. Captain Morgs won two starts ago, Docpickedme is two from three and Regarding Ruth, Midnightreflection and Butler's Brief also all scored three races ago.
Conversely Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Ask A Honey Bee are winless in seven, six and six races respectively with Bothwell Bridge failing to complete four of his last six and Ask A Honey Bee having three incomplete runs from six.
Only three (Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Butler's Brief) ran at this Class 3 level last time out, as both Martha Brae and Jubilee Express are stepping up from Class 4. Docpickedme, Ask A Honey Bee and Midnightreflection all drop down from Class 2, whilst top-weight Captain Morgs and Regarding Ruth were both in Class 1 handicap action.
After finishing as a runner-up on handicap debut a month ago, Jubilee Express now has a second crack at it and he's one of eight runners to have had an outing in the last eight weeks, but Ask A Honey Bee and Butler's Brief are returning from breaks of five and six months respectively.
We've no former course and distance winners here, but Bothwell Bridge (2m3f hrd), Regarding Ruth (2m5f hrd) and Butler's Brief (2m5f hrd) have at least won on this track before and Docpickedme, Bothwell Bridge, Martha Brae, Regarding Ruth & Midnightreflection have all scored over a similar trip to this one.
For more stats, we can turn to Instant Expert to see that half of this field have won an NH race on good to soft ground and that seven of them have at least one win at Class 3. A deeper dive would also tell you that Captain Morgs is 2 from 5 at Class 2 and that the rest of the field are a combined 0 from 26 at that level...
That's a bit of a mixed bag and Gentelman At Arms looks weak off an admittedly small number of runs. None of them really stand out right now and maybe Jubilee Express' lack of relevant runs and therefore lack of defeats might actually be a positive, but let's look at place form to see if there are any pointers there...
Now, it's Bothwell bridge who looks weak and Jubilee Express' sole relevant outing saw him make the frame. Midnightreflection has good place stats and at just 2lbs higher than his last win and stalking at the foot of the weights, might well be one to consider from an E/W perspective.
Pace/tactics haven't had that much bearing on horses making the frame here in similar past races, but those held up for a late run have often struggled to win. They have made the frame often enough, but wins have been harder to come by from off the pace...
...which probably isn't great news for Ask A Honey Bee based on recent showings...
..and I think that if push came to shove, I'd probably want to be on one that was up with the pace out of trouble in a race featuring so many runners who have failed to see races out.
Summary
Based upon everything I've written above and the fact that I want to be on a runner that's up with the pace out of trouble, the obvious pair are Docpickedme and Jubilee Express. Now, Jubilee Express is the current (5.45pm) 11/4 favourite and I think that's a bit skinny for my liking, so I'm going to suggest a small E/W play on Docpickedme at 12/1 with Hills (3places, but 10/1 at Sky if you want the security of a fourth place). I also thought that, whilst not challenging for the win, Midnightreflection wouldn't be a terrible E/W or place bet either and he's available at 18's (or 16/1 with 4 places).
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
