Tix Picks, Thursday 12/12/24

Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Newcastle, Taunton & Warwick.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

...and sticking with the NH (for now), let's head to Warwick for six races on good to soft ground beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 11.55...Character Testing was a faller at the last three weeks ago, but had finished 332 in his three other efforts over hurdles, the last of which was a defeat by just a neck over course and distance. El Gavilan makes a UK and yard debut here after coming over from France, where he's a half-brother to several Flat winners. He was a runner-up on his French debut at Lyon and might be a surprise package here.

Lion Hill hasn't set the world alight in two bumpers so far, but his yard/jockey are in good form...

...and he might be a different proposition over hurdles. Clear Storm finished in mid-division on hurdles debut at Ludlow in October and was deemed good enough for a Listed race last time out, even if she was pulled up before the penultimate flight. She was useful on the flat (63315236) and should be quick enough between the hurdles if her jumping stands up and I'll think I'll take a chance on here here with El Gavilan missing out from my shortlist.

Leg 2 @ 12.25...As The Fella Says finished 241 in three Irish PTP races before selling for £60k and you can never write off the chances of the Henderson/de Boinville partnership. Check The Score has already won a 3m PTP and a 2m bumper on his debut under Rules so has some ability but was a well beaten (50L!) third of five over hurdles at Exeter recently.

I'm A Lumberjack made the frame in three of five bumpers and returned from a seven month break to be a runner-up beaten by just a short head on his hurdles debut last month. Beorma hasn't shown a great deal so far and if I'm honest, he's only on my shortlist because he represents the Skeltons in a fairly poor race.

Wednesday Addams improved in three PTPs finishing P21 and has been a runner-up in two of five over hurdles so far and has recently had a wind op. I think I'll take a chance on him as backup to As The Fella Says who should be the main threat to likely winner I'm A Lumberjack.

Leg 3 @ 12.55...Aviation was beaten by less than three lengths on debut in a Market Rasen bumper in May and made a hurdle debut here last month some six months later, but managed to finish third of sixteen over 2m. He was outpaced, though and should relish the extra 5f here. Bear Market won a Class 3 bumper on debut at Aintree in May, having won a PTP bumper at Bangor a couple of months earlier, In good hands here and his breeding suggests he'll stay the 2m5f.

Jaccours had finished fourth in each of three starts over 2m½f-2m1½f, but looked a better prospect stepped up to 2m4f last time out, when the runner-up of fifteen at Ffos Las a month ago where first and third have gone on to make the frame again, whilst the fifth and seventh have both won. Jafimgoso showed some promise in bumpers finishing 912, but hasn't really progressed over hurdles yet and was 15th of 16 here last time out in the race where Aviation was third. He's probably better than that, but Aviation holds him here and he'll be the one to miss out for me.

Leg 4 @ 1.25...Skycutter made the frame in five of ten hurdle races, winning three times and has been the runner-up in both starts over fences, beaten by a length and a half or less on both occasions. Onethreefivenotout is one of those you need to catch on a good day. He won his sole bumper and has a win and two narrow runner-up defeats from six over hurdles, but his other three runs saw him pulled up when tailed off, a 39 length defeat as 9th of 10 and he was last home of 9 when last seen some 45 lengths down at Newbury in March. has ability, but is inconsistent and makes a chase debut after nearly nine months off.

Damarta was a reasonable fourth of seven on chase debut at Chepstow in October off the back of a six-month break having finished 33132 in his last five over hurdles, whilst Lucky Lugger has already been shown to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler with two runner-up finishes at Chepstow last month and not beaten by far in either. I suspect a similar fate awaits him here as he looks to be next best behind Skycutter, whilst I'd prefer Damarta over Onethreefivenotout if I wanted to take three runners.

Leg 5 @ 1.55...Cherie d'Am failed to finish out of the first three home in six starts (112123) and was second at Gr2 and third at Gr1 over hurdles last season. She might well have needed the run after 195-day absence when last home of three on chase debut at Carlisle in October, but was still less than two lengths adrift at the post. Smiling Getaway had two wins and a place from four over hurdles and was a winner at Ffos Las on chase debut in October. Lightly raced (6 starts) for a 7yo, she could have plenty in reserve.

Telepathique also won on chase debut, winning by some eleven lengths at Fakenham at the end of October, despite not having raced for eleven months following a hurdles win at Southwell. he then went on to complete a 358-day hat-trick to win here over 2m½f three weeks ago. This looks a more difficult prospect, but there's no denying her form, but the 'class' horse in the field has to be You Wear It Well, who made the frame in 7 of 11 over hurdles, winning five times including landing a Listed race and a pair of Grade 2 contests. She was a runner-up in a Listed contest on chase debut at Bangor a month ago, defying an 8 month break and I'd expect her to improve again here and take this comfortably ahead of Telepathique and possibly Cherie d'Am, although Smiling Getwaway will be very attractively priced for E/W bettors at 16/1 or bigger.

Leg 6 @ 2.25...Montecam returns to the smaller hurdles where he is 231F, having gone down at the first at Punchestown in May. He's had the benefit of a recent run, but his jumping let him down a little when fourth of six over fences at Kempton a month ago and might be better off back over the smaller obstacles. Moon Over Mexico has only raced the once so far, landing a novice hurdle at Newcastle back in January at this class/trip. He might well need a run after such a lay-off, but the form of his win seems to have worked out well with the five runners immediately behind him clocking up a combined 6 wins and 3 places from 18 starts, including a Listed race win for third placed Pinot Rouge.

Don't Tell Su won the second of her two bumpers and has made the frame in all six (232122) over hurdles having run into a couple of decent sorts in her last couple of races. Mr Hope Street is also in good, if not better form with three wins and a half-length runner-up finish (after five months off) from his last four outings. That defeat two starts ago was to Plaisir Des Flos who was completing a five-timer having been the one to beat Don't Tell Su in her penultimate outing.

Mr Hope Street got closer to Plaisir Des Flos than Don't Tell Su did, so they're my 1-2 in that order with Moon Over Mexico making more appeal than Montecam for the final spot.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Character Testing, (7) Clear Storm & (5) Lion Hill

Leg 2: (5) I'm A Lumberjack, (2) As The Fella Says & (13) Wednesday Addams

Leg 3: (2) Bear Market, (6) Jaccours & (1) Aviation

Leg 4: (1) Skycutter, (5) Lucky Lugger & (4) Damarta

Leg 5: (8) You Wear It Well, (7) Telepathique & (1) Cherie d'Am

Leg 6: (6) Mr Hope Street, (5) Don't Tell Su & (4) Moon Over Mexico

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24