Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival

With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.

There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.

First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.

Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...

Champion Hurdle 2026

This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.

State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.

Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.

The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.

The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.

I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).

She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.

Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.

That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.

Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.

Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026

The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.

An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.

Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.

The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!

Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.

Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.

Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).

Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.

Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.

At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.

Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!

Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.

This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.

Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.

Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.

Stayers' Hurdle 2026

I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.

Gold Cup 2026

Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.

Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.

Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?

Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.

Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.

Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.

Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.

Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]

Summary

It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.

At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!

Matt

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