A small winner on Saturday and a loser yesterday, and on we go to Tuesday. Chris is 'transitioning' from cold Lancashire to warm, sunny Bali for... checks notes... the next four weeks! Lucky bugger. He'll still be helping out from there, though, so he will be taking Tix Picks forward after this one from me...
What is Tix and how can I put it to work for me?
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A few more pointers on smart play can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a jackpot rollover expected to surpass £50,000. A winning penny line could pay £500+, and I'll be having a tilt (though not until much closer to the off).
Tix Picks meeting / pool: Newcastle, placepot
As mentioned I'll be having a crack at the jackpot later, but I want to see as many of the market 'vibes' as I can before entering that pool. Meanwhile, you'll get a feel for my thinking via a placepot play on the same Newcastle card.
Leg 1: Grant Tuer is in bamboozling form just now and Caledonian Dream went on to my tracker in July. Since then, he's gone from the front twice in handicaps and been a little flat each time. My view is he probably needs a more patient ride, which he might get here; but without knowing that, it's a bit of a guess up. Ollie Stammers is again in the saddle. I'll be slightly frustrated if he is waited with and comes through to win, but I won't be surprised. B.
Interestingly, perhaps, Tuer also saddles the second favourite, Shielas Well, which former champion Silvestre de Sousa rides. She's been running on in each of her most recent three spins, all at a furlong shorter, and with SdS up top is expected to go well. A.
Top weight Himself is the other for early money but, honestly, I cannot see why. A flat enough effort over six here then a nothing performance first time in a handicap last time; and nothing in the trainer's MO to suggest that second time handicap is the time (1 from 31, 3 more placed, 27% PRB in the last two years). Just no fingerprints on this one at all for me.
More interesting is Force Of Honour, who showed a bit when upped from six to seven last time and who can show more now up another furlong. He's been green in a couple of his races and I actually quite like him, albeit he's the sort that could blow out completely. Put it this way: there are plenty here that have shown they're moderate, he has yet to unequivocally confirm as much! B.
Bobby Jones is another who might benefit from the longer trip and also gets B coverage in what is a messy race.
Leg 2: The Fanshawe team has been tearing it up recently and Philanthropist, a neck second at Yarmouth last time, looks A banker material. He's a cheap place lay to insure your bet if you're that way inclined; or you might choose a couple of C alternatives and hope to land A picks in the other five legs.
Leg 3: Seven runners. Yuk. Top of the market is shared between a horse in recent winning form and a handicap debutant from a big yard which has yet to get closer than nine lengths behind a race winner. Titainium is proven at the ten furlong trip and is versatile in terms of run style; up four pounds from a win last time, he might go in again.
But Sarmiento Power's debut effort behind Monkey Island was a strong piece of form and promised much more than his subsequent two performances. Now handicapped, off just 64 (he cost 200,000 guineas as a yearling), and up three furlongs in trip having been gelded since his last race, surely it's time to show what he's really made of.
I thought Solar Bentley had a hard enough race on heavy at Ffos Las 11 days ago and am opposing on that basis; he's up seven pounds for it in any case. Meanwhile, Archie and Hollie have a ridic 32.53% win rate from 83 starters when combining here in the past two years. That demands a second look at Perfectly Timed, who gets blinkers for the first time. That blinkers angle is less arousing, however, though a 50% PRB with such types over two years isn't bad either.
Although not making my placepot tickets, one I've had a tiny win bet on and might lob on C for the jackpot later is Parish Record. Trainer Donald Whillans is top of the PRB pops for three separate and largely unrelated categories, so this trainer switch from Jim Bolger (whose 2024 numbers are *not* good - see second image below) is really interesting.
Whillans' sole other trainer switch in the two year period was a 25/1 shot, which finished 3rd.
For the placepot I'm going with dual A's from the top of the market. Not exciting but they're both highly credible in different ways.
Leg 4: It is not normally the play to go from the front in big field 6f handicaps here, but Asimov may get a relatively soft time of it and, in any case, is from the Fanshawe barn. On the other side of the track, if Juicy is given a more patient ride, she might be in the mix; she's won or been close up in all four AW runs. Both on A.
Quintus Arrius has had 15 races and won two of them. On all-weather, he's had one race and he won it. Here. Over this trip. He led that day and is extremely well in on old form. Interesting. B.
There are three multiple 'Fast Finishers' in this field: Dark Kestrel, Bellagio Man and Faro De San Juan. The first named pair are both trained by Antony Brittain and could be fun plays at big prices but I'll let them beat me. Faro is another Dylan Cunha raider but his best form is at five furlongs so, even though David Egan is booked, I'll also reluctantly defer on him.
But one I can't completely overlook is Rough Diamond. Four of his five wins have been at 6f in big fields and he drops back to this trip from seven for his new trainer, Tristan Davidson. He's well weighted on old form and ran a good race last time before flattening out in the last furlong. A stiff six could be perfect. B.
Leg 5: This looks tricky. Barefoot Warrior won nicely at Thirsk last time but I'm not sure how strong the race was and he shoulders a seven pound penalty now: he's going on B. Stanage has had four goes for the Gosdens and is yet to win, though he has placed in £20k+ to the winner novice races the last twice. He's been gelded since last time and John & Thady are 11/33 after making the unkindest cut of all. I'll risk him as a sole A.
Also on B, I want the Crisford's Buon Viaggio, who was an eye-catching fourth at Chelmsford the other day. Simon & Ed are 24 from 101 with second time starters, 51 of them in the frame, in the past two years.
I'm lukewarm on a few of the others, notably Classic Encounter (switching from Charlie Appleby to George Boughey) and Lattaash, whose Southwell form is hard to peg and it can't be a positive that he was gelded in spite of winning. Both have shown competitive form so I might well be wrong.
Leg 6: A full field as I write for the closing leg of the placepot and, actually, it's the first race I looked at in the sequence. That's because it's difficult and, if working through the six races chronologically, I might have found myself 'short stacked' (i.e. needing to go narrow from a bankroll perspective even though I know I want to be spread out from a play perspective). Assuming that made any sense, there's a negligible/debatable draw bias but a reasonable pace bias: in full field handicaps over 7f it's hard to win from the front. Other run styles have shared the honours pretty much and, when there's not a lot of obvious pace on - like this race on paper - I want a prominent/midfield runner rather than a hold up one.
The solid one, relatively at least, is Havanarama. Hugo Palmer legs up Callum Rodriguez and the former geegeez-sponsored rider is performing out of his skin this season. He's always been one of the best pace judges in the weighing room and this seven is a stern test of that particular skill. The jockey data for COURSE (Co) on Instant Expert, this image taken from the portrait mobile view (which shows the colour codes and the number of runs on which the colouring is based), reveals as much:
Indeed, of Callum's last 15 rides at Newcastle, he's been in the frame in 12 of them. If that hasn't given him the kiss of death, nothing will! Havanarama himself has been second on both Newcastle runs, smaller fields each time, and it might be that this bigger group allows him to finish to even greater effect. A.
Dylan Cunha sends Jackson Street all the way up from Newmarket and has booked Silvestre de Sousa to steer. This lad's AW form is a lot better than his turf efforts and he was doing all his best work late around Chelmsford when last seen. He can go close. A.
This is a tougher assignment for Flavour Maker than when dead heating at Kempton last time, but the straight track should also play to the finishing ability he displayed there. Still, I'm not quite so keen on him than the aforementioned pair. B.
Eminent Jewel is another who finishes off well, but her good recent form has been on turf. She might be able to translate it but I'm preferring to add the late runner Petra Celera to B. Although she might end up being too far back if they go steady in front, she's got some great fast finishes when the early tempo is rapid, as her Full Form (show sectionals, note the orange - fastest finisher in the race - "go faster stripes") attests.
*
No C tickets today, but a fair bit of B coverage. This is more of a, excuse me, sh*t or bust perm than I've shared recently but will hopefully be good fun at least.
It's £18.88 to 4p units, so £4.72 for pennies.
Good luck!
Matt
p.s. Chris will return for tomorrow's Tix Picks and will assume residency thereafter. I've enjoyed sharing a few thoughts on how I play as well as what I'm playing, and if you have any questions do drop them in the comments.
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