Tix Picks, Monday 9th September 2024

OK, guys, my first crack at the new Tix Picks feature, so bear with me!

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

 

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pots are at Wolverhampton, so let's head there...

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Wolverhampton, placepot

Leg 1: A 5-runner, Class 5 nursery kicks the meeting off with Greek Gift and Claim To Glory being the only two runners with any discernible form. It's probably an early cop out, but I'll just take both of these for now.

Leg 2: Another 5-runner affair for 2yr olds makes for a tough start to the meeting, but the obvious pick for me is Target Man. He was only beaten by a neck on debut last time out and now drops in class. Likely to try and win the race from the front, which is a good tactic here at Wolverhampton. He's going to be a banker pick for me and probably 90-odd% of players!

Leg 3: A couple more runners in this one and older horses with more 'form' to work with. Most of the field are down in class and Bowman brings steady consistent top-three form to the table. Starshiba has made the frame twice from four runs here and has won over course and distance. Mr Squires won here in June and is the pace angle in the race...

 

 

... and if allowed an easy lead, he could well have a top-2 finish here and I'll take him and Bowman as my two against the field. I know Starshiba is popular in the market, but hasn't won a race for nearly nine months and has only made the frame once during his current run of nine defeats.

Leg 4: A better looking contest to work with here with 10 runners contesting this 1m½f, Class 4 handicap with three horses standing out on the Instant Expert place stats...

 

 

...all three tend to run in mid-division or further forward which is a bonus, as hold-up horses tend to fare worst over this track/trip. Stalls 4 to 7 score best on the PRB...

 

 

...so Photon becomes a pick here, despite still being a maiden after 11 races. In fairness he has been a runner-up in three of his last five on the A/W and a similar effort here will do for us. Elsewhere, King of Scotia is the predicted front-runner and he has won two of his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Has lost his last two on unsuitably quick ground but won over a mile at Lingfield on his last A/W outing. I'd hope he could make the frame here too.

Leg 5: An interesting seven-runner contest featuring five course and distance winners. Roaring Ralph, Chalk Mountain and Surprise Picture all won LTO in the last week, but the latter is up in class. Consistent placer (3322 in his last four) Ultramarine drops in class and these four are the ones in my mind here on form. Three of these four also standout on Instant Expert...

 

 

...and Ultramarine might be dangerously weighted. If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

 

 

...it's Roaring Ralph and Surprise Picture from the original quartet that seem best positioned. Roaring Ralph now has to be a pick, but I think I'd also take Chalk Mountain, Surprise Picture and Ultramarine.

Leg 6: Our final race is another 7f affair, but we've ten 3 yr olds to choose from with Grecian God our only LTO winner. Diligent Henry was a runner-up, but only Amroon and Blacklion have won any of their last seven outings. Instant Expert also steers us towards Grecian God and Amroon...

 

 

...but the former might be poorly drawn out widest of the ten runners...

 

 

Both of these runners have previously won over course and distance and I'm keeping both onside here, although I do prefer Amroon to Grecian God.

So to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 2

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1 & 6

Leg 4: horses 1 & 8

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 3 & 5

I'll now hold my hands up and admit that I've not yet got my head around the ABC methodology, I'll need to pick Matt's brains, but if you're up to speed already or just want to do a simple 64-line perm from my picks...

 

...Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

Cheers,
Chris

I'm 'on the road' tomorrow, so Matt will cover you for Tuesday's picks and I'll be back with you on Wednesday morning. The plan moving forwards is that I'll have the piece ready to go 'live' by around 10am on the day of the races, but I'm going to be in Indonesia for the next four weeks, so things might move around a little until I get home.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24