Tix Picks, Monday 11/11/24

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Carlisle, Kempton, Newcastle & Wolverhampton

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Carlisle having the biggest guaranteed pot, let's head there for the following six races on good ground...

12.00 Carlisle, a 3-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m4f...

Only 3 run here and Pic Roc makes a chase debut after finishing 2122 over hurdles. The last two runner-up finished were in 17-runner Class 1 & 2 handicaps, whilst he was a Class 2 winner at Ascot in February.

Asta La Pasta was a decent third of eight on chase debut at Ffos Las eighteen months ago despite not having raced for seven months, so he should strip fitter for the run and also benefit from the chasing experience.

Kilta actually won a 3-runner, Class 3 handicap on chase debut back in May, but was last of five beaten by 28 lengths next time out and went down by a similar margin in his last effort.

I don't want to crash out on race 1, so I'll definitely take two out of three here and Kilta looks weakest and is there omitted in favour of (1) Pic Roc & (2) Asta La Pasta.

12.30 Carlisle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m1½f...

It's a maiden hurdle, but No Questions Asked has won under Rules already, when landing a bumper at Market Rasen on debut back in February and was beaten by less than six lengths on his only other outing when a very commendable 6th of 18 in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree. Anything like that kind of run should be enough here providing he can jump, of course. That said, he did win his sole PTP contest.

Donald McCain also sends a pair of PTP winners here in the shape of top weight Barrabooka and also Cahier's Den and based on jockey bookings, the former looks the yard's #1 in this one. Willie Shake Hands was pulled up on hurdles debut at Sedgefield three weeks ago coming back from more than six months off, but had shown promise when third in a Naas bumper back in April.

Elsewhere, bottom weight Beorma is an interesting sort making a yard debut for the Skeltons after three fairly modest runs in bumpers for Tom Gallagher. I suspect they'll make something out of hi, but that might take some time.

On paper, (7) No Questions Asked should be winning this with plenty in hand and I'd expect the McCain stablemates (1) Barrabooka and (3) Cahier's Den to put up the most resistance.

1.00 Carlisle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m1½f...

Division two of the above maiden hurdle also features a pair of Donald McCain racecourse debutants coming off the back of a decent PTP run. Jockey bookings suggest Idaho Valley is the pick of the two and he won at Tallow back in February, whilst stablemate Bo Cruz was a runner-up at Borris House.

Idaho Valley is a half brother to Toss Again, a four-time winner over 2m6f to 2m7f, so he might well need further in time. Of those with track experience, Jet To Vegas was a runner-up beaten by just a length and a quarter at Carlisle last month, whilst We're Red And Blue won a bumper on debut at Hereford in February and was a runner-up at Uttoxeter on his second start over hurdles just over three weeks ago, beaten by just a length and a half.

As with the previous race, I'm going with both of the McCain debutants ie (2) Bo Cruz and (6) Idaho Valley along with the in-form (9) We're Red And Blue, who is backed up by these stats...

1.30 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...

Joie More was a runner-up in an 8-runner hurdle at Kelso back in March and made a commendable seasonal reappearance 228 days later when beaten by 7.5 lengths here over course and distance on handicap debut last month and he should come on for the run having been eased 2lbs in the ratings. She's Not Joeking makes a handicap debut after finishes of 213 over hurdles and she did win on her bumper debut. She was third of fourteen at Hexham last time out, despite having not raced for almost six months, so my only concern for her here is that all her form is on ground softer than this.

Horsesomeharry showed little in his three outings (P66) in the spring, but is expected to appreciate the extra half mile here down in class, in first-time cheekpieces and on handicap debut for a yard with a good record with both handicap debutants and those coming back from a break....

Ruler Legend has already won a handicap hurdle, scoring at Huntingdon back in March and has prepared for this race by running in a heavy ground, Class 3, flat handicap at Newbury over 1m4f seventeen days ago. he overcame a six-month break to finish fourth of the eleven runners and that run should help him here for an in-form yard...

My place shortlist is completed by Get A Superstar, who always seems to be on the premises even if he has only won once to date. His bumper form read 421 and despite being pulled up on his hurdles debut back in January he has finished 434444 since, so you'd expect him to be knocking on the door again here.

I can make a case for all of the above, but I'm more drawn to (5) She's Not Joeking, (8) Ruler Legend & (9) Get A Superstar today. The latter might well finish fourth yet again opening the door for Horsesomeharry, but I don't want to take four runners from this one.

2.00 Carlisle, a 4-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ graduation chase over 2m...

I didn't want to take four runners from the above race, because I feel like I need to take three from four here to be safe. I could cut to the chase (sorry!) and just say that Nells Son is going to be my odd one out, despite having won two of his last six over fences, but I feel the other trio have more to offer today.

Unexpected Party won the Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham festival this year and although last home of five last time out, that race was (a) the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree last month, (b) over a half mile further than today and 9c) off the back of a 199-day absence.

Path D'oroux won on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham less than three weeks ago in a novice contest and finished last season with results reading 2335 in Listed/Class 1 handicap chases, so he's definitely got ability.

Paul Nicholls' Kalif du Berlais becomes the latest in a long line of Berlais' to tackle fences. This one comes here after just three efforts over hurdles that saw him win a Class 2 on debut at Kempton back in January followed by a Grade 2 success in the Adonis over the same track/trip six weeks later before closing his debut season seven months ago by finishing third in an Aintree Grade 1 contest. His fitness/jumping will be taken on trust, but he's from a good yard and the Berlais name carries weight!

2.30 Carlisle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1½f...

Knowmorediamonds was a course and distance runner-up beaten by just a neck on handicap debut 25 days ago and should be involved again despite a 4lbs rise. Strictly Tango's three qualifying runs have seen him finish 331 over hurdles, scoring over 2m1f at Sedgefield just over a month ago.

Diamond Koda is another of those runners who always seems to be on the premises. He has raced three times over hurdles and in three bumpers so far finishing as runner-up five times in total, having unseated at the first two starts ago. He hasn't raced for seven months, but the horse that beat him that day has won again since and a mark of 106 (less a 5lb jockey claim) might not be too onerous on handicap debut.

Dino Baggio won two of four bumpers and raced in a Listed bumper at 2023's Cheltenham January meeting and at Grade 2 at that year's Aintree Festival although well beaten in both. His two bumper wins suggested he'd go well over hurdles, but was pulled up on his first attempt just over a ear ago and could only manage 10th of 14 in January before being sent back to the sheds. He reappeared here at Carlisle last month, though with his best hurdles effort to date, defying a nine month absence to finish fourth of ten and his mark of 96 could also be low.

These are the four that interest me the most and although I've gone with a few Donald McCain horses earlier in the card, it's his Dino Baggio that just fails to make the cut here...

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Pic Roc & (2) Asta La Pasta

Leg 2: (1) Barrabooka, (3) Cahier's Den & (7) No Questions Asked

Leg 3: (2) Bo Cruz, (6) Idaho Valley & (9) We're Red And Blue

Leg 4: (5) She's Not Joeking, (8) Ruler Legend & (9) Get A Superstar

Leg 5: (2) Unexpected Party, (3) Path D'oroux & (4) Kalif du Berlais

Leg 6: (1) Knowmorediamonds, (2) Strictly Tango & (4) Diamond Koda

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
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• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
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