Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Tuesday 08/10/24

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Huntingdon, Leicester & Southwell.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with the biggest pot to be found at Southwell, we'll head there for our six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.20, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Ifonlytheycudtalk was a winner a fortnight ago at Beverley and has been in the frame in four of his last six. Suanni and Glamorous Joy both won three starts ago with the former a runner-up last time out, whilst despite being a 12-race maiden, Marcus has made the frame in each of his last three starts and five of his last seven. Havechatma was a winner here over 6f last December and The Grey Lass is a former course and distance winner from four starts ago off just 2lbs higher.

Instant Expert also suggests that Suanni and Marcus could go well here and also puts Mr Funky Monkey into the picture...

whilst over a course and distance that suits those willing to get on with things...

...only Iftheycudtalk, Suanni, Northern Prince and Havchatma have an average pace score of 2.75 or higher...

...and I'll take three of those four, Northern Prince being the unlucky one and I'm still wary of Marcus based on the above.

(2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk are my picks here.

Leg 2 @ 4.55, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...

Of those with racecourse experience, Vibrato and All Ways Glamorous seem better options than Bubbles Up and Kohana Girl.

Vibrato might need the run after 194 days off, but drops in class after being a runner-up here over a mile back in March, half a length behind Suspicion who has also yet to run again. The third placed horse that day, Devoirs Choice, has actually won his last three outings, all at Class 4 and off marks of 76, 78 & 80, so that's promising for Vibrato who also makes a yard debut for Jennie Candlish, who does well with new recruits...

All Ways Glamorous was only 4th of 7 on his A/W debut at Wolverhampton recently, but had finished as runner-up in three on the bounce over today's trip on good to soft, good and good to firm ground, so he's certainly adaptable.

Of the two debutants, I'm more drawn to Rebel Star, who is a half-sister to Angle Land who had 7 wins and 15 places from 49 runs over 5f, including a course and distance win here at Southwell.

Safety first here, I'll take all three : (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kristal Klear is the klear (sorry!) pick on form having finished 121 in her last three outings. She was beaten by a head on good to soft ground at Haydock in between 7f tapeta wins here over course and distance and Wolverhampton last time out. She's up 5lbs for that latest 4 lengths success, but today's jockey takes those 5lbs off, so she's the one to beat for me.

Hardman was a disappointing 8th of 12 at Beverley last time out, but had won his previous two. Hostelry seems to be there or thereabouts without winning of late and this is a poorer race than she has been contesting as she drops in class, whilst 12-race maiden Jalaybee has made the frame in each of his last two starts. Back from Dubai is the sole course and distance winner, but doesn't show well on Instant Expert. Mind you, only Kristal Klear does!

She's also the likely front runner here in a race that seems to lack any real pace...

...so (1) Kristal Klear is a firm pick here. Matt (and others) braver than me would make her a banker here, but I'm prone to err on the side of caution and I'll also take (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman here.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Amaysmont was a winner at Wolverhampton eight days ago, scoring for the third time in five starts since a pair of runner-up finishes in April and May, so he's clearly going well. Mykonos St John also won on that card at Wolverhampton last time out and is two from five, but lacks consistency. Of the others, only Rainbow Mirage made the frame on their last run. Kodebreaker has been placed in two of his last three and has two wins and those two places from his last six handicap outings and is also the only previous course and distance winner in the race, albeit from March 2023!

The top of the pace rating brings Cryptos Dream into play along with First Dynasty (winless in 12, though) and Amayretto who gets a 3lbs weight for age allowance and is down in weight despite only being beaten by 1.5 lengths over this course and distance last time out.

She's also on my six-runner Instant Expert shortlist...

I can't ignore the obvious claims of (1) Amaysmont and based on pace/IE, I'm also taking (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto here

Leg 5 @ 6.30, a 6-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

This looks like a 'straightforward two-horse race' between triple runner-up (6) Shah who benefits from a higher draw...

... and (1) Jonquil, the only previous winner in the race, having scored over this trip on debut at Sandown and with both of these runners dropping in class, I'm just taking (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah from this one and moving on to our finale...

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f

And we end with another small field where Different Drum sets the standard on form having finished third here over 1m4f five weeks ago prior to an LTO win over today's trip on the tapeta at Newcastle three weeks ago. Grey Nyle was a runner-up beaten by just a head over that same Newcastle track/trip almost four weeks ago and has to be considered and this pair are both still 3 yr olds, so get a whopping 9lbs advantage over their rivals, from whom Scylla has also won over today's trip albeit on good to firm ground at Lingfield in late July.

There's not much to be gleaned from Instant Expert, pace or draw here, but Scylla's yard have a useful recent place record at this venue...



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..so I'll add (1) Scylla to the previously highlighted (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle for leg 6.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk & (10) Marcus

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3: (1) Kristal Klear, (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman

Leg 4: (1) Amaysmont, (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto

Leg 5: (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah

Leg 6: (1) Scylla, (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

As ever, good luck!

Chris

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