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Racing Insights, Saturday 16/12/2023

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...



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and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 11.55 Hereford
  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Fairyhouse
  • 2.25 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Hereford
  • 3.35 Cheltenham

All told, between the TJC qualifiers and the 'free' races, I've plenty to go at , but one race features on both lists, so we'll have a look at the 3.35 Cheltenham where in-form friend of Geegeez Anthony Honeyball sends the 7yr old Good Look Charm to tackle a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

The sharper eyed amongst you will also have spotted that Anthony has another runner in this race in the shape of Geegeez syndicate-owned Coquelicot, who will be partnered by Rex Dingle. This horse/jockey combination have six wins and four further places from thirteen races together, so that's another interesting angle to the race, I think.

Martha Divine is the only one of the ten without a win in five races, in fact she has been beaten in her last seven and now comes back off a break of nine months to make a yard debut for Harry Fry. She has had wind surgery during her lay-off and that should help her run better, she also sports a hood for the first time and Harry Fry's a great trainer, but I suspect her best is yet to come in later races!

All her nine rivals have had the benefit of a run in the last three to nine weeks with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm all winning last time out. Windtothelightning has won four of her last five, whilst Bonttay is three from four and has won six times from her nine career starts, finishing as runner-up in the other three!

She is, however, up two classes here (but did win a Class 2 two starts ago) and Windtothelightning also steps up a level. Conversely, top-weight Theatre Glory, LTO Listed class winner Coquelicot and handicap debutant Nurse Susan all drop down from Class 1 action.

Theatre Glory has already won over course and distance here at HQ, landing a Listed Novice Hurdle in April of last year and Bonttay landed a pair (Class 2 & Listed) of back to back 2m½f bumpers here in October/November 2021. Aside from Theatre Glory, though, only Windtothelightning, Coquelicot and Ilovethe nightlife have won over a similar trip to this one, even if Coquelicot did win over 3,1f last time out.

Results under similar conditions can, of course, be found by clicking the Instant Expert tab on the racecard...

...where in-form Bonttay looks the one to best, notwithstanding her lack of experience beyond 2m1f and her stepping bck up in class. Featured runner Good Look Charm will enjoy the soft ground, whilst Windtothelightning's record at the trip is excellent, although she does now run off 12lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby six weeks ago defying a 198-day lay-off. That weight hike aside, there are no real causes for concern raised by Instant Expert, so I'm going to look at the place data to try and 'eliminate some from my enquiries'...

I'm going to be rather picky here and just highlight the ones who have green or no runs at going/class/course/distance, leaving me with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm as my takeaways from Instant Expert, as we now move on to assess race tactics aka pace.



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Geegeez followers will know from past reports that Coquelicot likes to do her racing from the front of the pack, but recent efforts by her rivals suggest that she might have some company up top from the likes of Stainsby Girl, Good Look Charm and Theatre Glory...

...with Zestful, Nurse Susan and Bonttay towards the rear, although the latter did win at Exeter four starts ago from a prominent position. That said, Cheltenham is a true test of a horse and the cream invariably rises to the top regardless of pace and whilst front-runners have had the edge on making the frame here in similar past races, the races have been won pretty evenly across all running styles...

...which pretty much takes me back to my Instant Expert quartet.

Summary

I've pretty quickly narrowed the field down to Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm, courtesy of Instant Expert and recent form and of these four, I think Bonttay is the one to beat, but the other three are more than capable on their day and all look to have a great chance of making the frame.

Bonttay is the 3/1 favourite as of 4.10pm with Coquelicot and Windtothelightning both priced at 7/1 with Good Look Charm out at 10's. Skybet are paying four places here, so all of them would be worth considering.

 

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